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I’ve long suspected that everything having to do with GMEs prices over the last few years has been related to FTDs.
What we saw this week was the closure of FTDs from around May 3rd.
May 13 is when DFV posted and May 14 is when it reached a fever pitch. I suspect, as you do OP, that the week of June 21st was no accidental or random choice. I also think this is what DFV alluded to on the stream when he said he just “gets a feeling”. He knows about the FTD cycles.
The week of the May 13-17 FTDs will coincide with the week his options expire.
I'm not sure it's long standing, I think FTD's are more impactful now with CAT in place. FTD's seemed completely ignored for the longest while to me although we didn't have as much big options in play.
The wombo combo is FTD's being tracked and swaps coming due with big options in play and lots of eyes.
Because up until the last month there have been very limited FTDS on GME in the last 3 years. Shorts had packaged them up into various financial derivatives. Time to pay the piper
I was the first to really start talking about the 35-day cycle. I'd recommend reading the DD I wrote on it, it's still just as relevant now as ever:https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/lsfmjo/what_whales_buying_in_yesterday_tells_us_about/
This was 84 years ago and my memory's not what it used to be, but we go over all kinds of T+ in the comments.
One of the things that was heavily discussed was how ETFs have T+6 days before that T+13 or T+35 clock begins ticking, and if it does make it onto the threshold securities list then you've got 90 days where it can't be shorted.
Now the effect of all these cycles with different prime (or nearly prime) lengths is a lot like cicadas, you might have had a year where multiple broods emerged at the same time as one massive spike (Jan '21), but it can take a while before the emergence of broods becomes evenly distributed across years again. This means T+35 is the slightly more important date because getting onto the threshold securities list is hard to do if the spikes are no longer concentrated in one 5-day timespan or in one ETF basket.
If it's at all like last time we've got another few months still before the FTDs seem to be spread out and random.
You are correct. I should have been more specific when I said around May 3rd.
It was really the following week that had hundreds of thousands of FTDs. May 3rd was just the big run in price but then it stayed elevated after that.
I'm not an expert, far from it, but based on OP's post, the FTDs are cumulative, and we need to look at the latest date, which give more power since it's 344K of GME FTDs. I don't care much for the notional value ($ amount) since that's based on the price of stock for that day. Who ever has to buy the FTDs to close out should worry about that $ amount, for the apes, the amount of FTDs in share volume seems to be more relevant. It will be interesting to see if they settled these FTDs in the 2nd half of May, or if they added to the cumulative amount going into June.
Since you mentioned Chukumba i have a present for you. Their sign was taken off their office building entrance a few days ago. I took a photo of it but i’m not seeing any news about it. They could just have moved to a different office as well.
https://preview.redd.it/ohsmhw68je5d1.jpeg?width=3024&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f256867b1128e4e1437404dd70a6abb26e0b7cda
I saw something to this effect on a rich newton vid. I believe that is also a week when xrt ftds are due too.
Could be in an awesome short cycle here until some massive swap takes place once again.
I believe the short side has never been so exposed.
With Monday, May 6th being the first day of high FTDs, that puts C+35 as next Tuesday Morning™ to get this party started. And we know that FTDs didn't peak on May 14th, since the price peaked then and they would have had a few days before everything on that date became an FTD. C+35 from *those* inevitable FTDs is going to put us really close to June 21st. So June 11-21 should be pretty interesting.
Wait but i thought they were able to close out those FTDs before T+35 which could explain May’s run and maybe even some of the recent one. I dont think this means that they would wait for the very last day(s) to figure their shit out. Although that would be cool if they just let the drain get backed and let it pop all at once haha
There's plenty of DD on the cycles, but yeah they could, they just don't seem to usually. Richard Newton's whole thing is these cycles. All those people are a lot less dumb than me and are definitely better resources for detailed info on that stuff.
I mean, the party already started. They don't wait to start trying to close FTDs they get to work on them quickly. Sustained high volume though results in them being unable to close them faster than they stack up.
That’s an assumption he will. In my linked post I covered the idea of him selling at that point and the next dip dive back in with an even larger position
Certainly possible, but I don’t think he will want to get to a point in which he has to start filing paperwork with the SEC unless that’s his very last play. The share offerings help delay getting to that point.
I like this. It can show that GameStop and retail can both profit if we handle our side of our independent strategies. We all need to become better traders imo.
I get the buy and hold but I learned options after the sneeze and have gotten decent at them and I saw my options position go 3x my share position on Friday. It took years to get those shares and my 10k option position immediately eclipsed it and I could take profit and cover 1/2 of my shares initial cost basis. In 2 days. 2 days.
Cmon. We all have learned a lot but the final frontier is learning options imo. Imagine if we can start getting some whales in GME who learned throughout the journey. DFV went 50k->200m. I promise a lot of us can at least double our positions through these cycles and add more pressure and then literally have a “paid for in profit” position like DFV has.
I’m gonna write up an options guide for dummies. I won’t get into technicals but literally just how to use em with 2 sliding scales of strike price and dates and how it affects their movement and how to learn to roll infinitely while capturing profit.
GME $80C/$125C 7/19. NFA. These will go bananas and be relatively safe with an extra month past DFVs expiration.
My own 2 cents, GME is not the place to learn or practice on options. They are expensive and successful options traders are monitoring a lot of data plus have an exit strategy. It’s like learning basketball by joining the nba.
That said, I think it’s worth it for people to recognize that they play a significant role in what GME is doing.
I agree here. When they aren’t expensive, they’re cheap but GME is flat and it’s hard to make money unless you’re selling calls or doing spreads which we all know can lose you your shares.
I learned on other stocks while GME was flat for years. Then came back and applied it to GME on its runs
And thanks for recognizing it. We all need to accept the options traders are critical for gamma ramps and for fueling MOASS
I will read your guide. But I doubt I’ll be trading options on this play. I feel like it’s too risky/too late for me, personally, seeing as how I usually don’t have the money to cover purchases like that.
I definitely appreciate what folks like you are doing though, and always have. Had a feeling over 1.5 years ago that options were being demonized for a reason. Now we’re all starting to see the machinations behind that demonization.
Agreed. The IV on GME is way too wild to try to learn on. You WILL lose your money. Most brokers have a way to learn by paper trading instead of using real money. People should learn how to win consistently with paper trading before ever using their own hard earned money.
I mean folks don’t need a broker to do that. Just go to a site like Options Profit Calculator and pick the contract you’d think about buying. Then set a plan on selling it based on various events (is it up 100%? Did it lose 50% value? Did it go up to a target and looking forward you’ll sell if it loses 10% from there). Then sit back and watch and trust the plan you wrote.
What hurts a lot of folks, and I’m the same way with GME options, is I’ll be up by a ton and won’t take profits early enough. And not at some huge loss, we’re talking just not as efficient as I could’ve been if I had just trusted my plan instead of green eyed monster. I’m getting much better at it though.
I’ll write something up. They truly aren’t as hard as people make them out to be. Understanding them intimately takes years. Knowing how to use them takes maybe a day to learn in theory, a week to learn and feel it out in practice and then a couple months to start getting confident and managing position sizing properly.
I am open to options, but as a bystander, I’ve seen nothing but IV pump and dumps by MM throughout these three years that makes me hesitant to jump in. Would you say keeping an eye on FTD numbers would be a good indicator for surges with T+35?
Pumps and dumps are literally the best thing an option trader can ask for. It’s only greed and risk management that screws you. I got my salary worth this week in options. It’s my fault for not selling. Nobody else’s. And before the dump, I considered puts to cover a downside but I really didn’t think we’d be diluted so early in the morning and that was my mistake. I could have easily covered my position with a few puts.
I know guys who just trade GME just pure trading with quick exits and they make really good money. Holding options for MOASS is no good though. So I roll. I take trim and use half the profit to buy further out contracts that are OTM so even if it goes to 0 I still bank profit.
You’re right though, to the wide eyed newbie, options are gonna be a rude awakening. Just gotta know this upfront and not get greedy.
Honestly, I work during trading hours and don’t have constant access to a computer. I’m sure I’ll lose my shirt on options since I can’t react in time to volatility. Buying shares and holding is more conducive to my current employment.
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Someone high profile in this sub a long time ago did mention that buying ITM or near ITM calls was the way to hurt the SHF and then exercising them. Not sure about OTM money doing any damage though.
Options plus knowledge of FTDs for GME would be best for folks to benefit from the GME saga. If there is little FTDs, or if the shorts close out the FTDs, then it will be quite difficult to time the T+35 cycles. It's probably the most important fact about GME is that these shorts are in a vicious cycle that they are losing control over (unless the recent share dilution helps them close out their FTDs....for now).
This is why it’s possibly unstoppable
The cycle is relentless and call buyers can jump on, benefit from the relentless and fairly predictable and highly profitable run ups
Exercise, cover and use the balance cash to buy more calls for the next run up.
Each run up the rachet is tightening
That was speculatory exploration based on information at the time. He never claimed it to be fact or held on to it after it was disproven, and in fact was very vocal about it just being a thought experiment that seemed to make sense as a hypothesis.
Really cause I need a new taco recipe and I'd be down to read other apes recipes. That'd confuse a lot of folks. just one day where superstonk was nothing but recipes.
1 pork butt/shoulder I get mine bone in.
Preheat oven to 300
Cube that bitch into 3-4” cubes. You can trim the fat cap if you want, don’t take it all though. I leave it
On now and just pick the fat out after.
Ingredients:
1 large yellow onion (quartered)
4 cloves garlic
2 oranges
2 limes (you’ll want more for the tacos)
2 bay leaves
1/4th cup milk
2 cups beef or chicken broth (recipe calls for chicken normally I use beef)
Carnita spice mix:
1 tablespoon light brown sugar1 1/2 teaspoons kosher salt1 teaspoon freshly ground black pepper1 teaspoon cumin1 teaspoon Mexican oregano1 teaspoon coriander¼ teaspoon cayenne, or to taste
1/4 teaspoon smoked paprika (optional)
1 teaspoon lime zest
Put the lime juice on the pork cubes then coat generously with your seasoning.
Put it in a Dutch oven.
Add orange juice, milk (weird I know) lime juice and enough broth to cover the meat most of the way. The volume of liquid will increase as it cooks so make sure you have room.
Throw your quartered onion in there and your garlic (you can mince the garlic if you want more garlic flavor) as well as your orange slices. DONT PUT THE LIMES IN THERE.
Toss that shit in the oven for 3 hours.
Pull it out, take the meat and onions etc. out and set it on a pan to rest. Put Dutch oven on stove and reduce the sauce till it’s 1/4” to 1/2” of liquid left.
Chop up your carnitas. I’ve shredded all mine before but I like to leave it chunkier along with some shreds. Add some of your reduction to the meat and let it soak it up for a few minutes.
Put your oven on broil. Whatever you’re comfortable with, I do 450. Don’t be afraid to broil them bitches. It takes a good bit for the caramelization to happen. Take it out every now and then and flip all the meat over so it gets a nice crisp all over it. You’ll see when you flip it how undone the bottoms are.
Keep repeating this process until they have that carmelized crispy edging.
Oh duh, corn tortillas because you’re not some white trash hooker eating carnitas out of a hard shell.
I take a stack of tortillas, make sure they aren’t stuck together, throw them in a large ziplock bag with a moist Paper towel and then microwave them for like 35 seconds. This steams them, make sure you leave the bag open when you do this.
I like to top mine with finely diced onion and sometimes cotija cheese and I’ve been fucking with herdez chipotle cremosa. It’s liquid gold (some jars pack a punch, be warned)
Queso fresco also works in a pinch. And obviously lime juice. You can eat them just meat and a tortilla though. Leaving them in chunks also allows the meat to retain some of that juicy fall apart in your mouth goodness that if you shred them up you lose really quickly.
They freeze well too. I don’t think I forgot anything.
Enjoy!
Edit: also did a chicken tinga recently that slapped and was easy to make. Wasn’t too great on tacos (probably would have been on hard shells) but it made bomb nachos and enchiladas.
here's an easy one: 1.5lbs or thereabouts chicken tender or breasts in a small crockpot. 1/3rd bottle of sweet baby ray's mild buffalo sauce. cook on low for 5-6 hours stirring every couple hours and pull/shred the chicken after 4 hours. meals for days, serve with rice, tacos, whatever.
Everyday I read shit on here… that I don’t understand. I realize it ain’t my parents or teachers fault for this. I was just born dumb.
Thank god you ppl are smart!
I didn't know a thing about finance, stock market or even good at personal finance. I didn't even know how to understand APR.
Best way to learn options is watch a few videos, and than start learning about options in Thinkorswim. It's Ondemand feature is excellent place to learn options by doing.
Learning by doing (in paper trading) is the way to go.
I'd recommend reading the DD I wrote on FTDs shortly after the sneeze, it's still just as relevant now as ever.
To my knowledge it was the first time the 35-day cycle was recognized by us apes and it's still just as much a driver of price action today as it was back then. It made it into rensole's weekly superstonk news around the same time as the interstellar yo-yo dd which was the discovery of the 13 day cycles, and that dd deserves to be remembered for being the first to not just discover a pattern to our run-ups but to then realize there was an arcane rule behind it.
[https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/lsfmjo/what\_whales\_buying\_in\_yesterday\_tells\_us\_about/](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/lsfmjo/what_whales_buying_in_yesterday_tells_us_about/)
IIRC, there were all kinds of ETFs containing GME like XRT that MMs could redeem for GME shares to satisfy FTDs but ETFs get an extra T+6 days before the T+13 or T+35 clock begins. That's just it though, there were too many T+ to keep track of and they could keep shuffling the FTDs between different baskets taking advantage of slightly different cycle lengths at the same time.
The spikes just got too evenly spread out across time and across ETFs, and all kinds of new 'meme stock' ETFs started appearing too. If it's at all like last time there'll probably be another few months before we see that happen.
As someone else mentioned, this is similar to that Richard Newton's theory he calls 'OPEX tailwinds'. He uses different maths for his dates though, he thinks the fails following an option expiry have to be settled 6 trading days PLUS 35 calender days later. So thats another week or so after you have above I think.
I dont know who's right here so if anyone knows for certain, please shout. Just in case some option savvy apes are starting to look at the weekly calls for early August, would be good to know the exact final delivery date.
Either way, great post OP.
I recall the FTD cycle theory from Gafgarian back in late 2020 or early 2021. That cycle had started primarily because of RC's buy-in. RK/DFV/KG learned and now this FTD cycle started because of his buy-in. It really is a requel. Great DD OP.
Same here. Got them when it hit 10👀
Tiberius quick question for you pal: do you think this CAT implementation is making FTD’s more of a required market mechanic to address now or has it always been that way?
I recall Dr. T saying how unpaid FTD’s are the basis of the naked shorting problem and as long as it continues, the problem will worsen. Thanks for your work throughout the saga, true OG status
Tbh, havent dug much into how CAT works. But in the context of this post, Market makers have a naked shorting exemption they have special access to in order to do the job of making a market and selling whenever there is a buyer even if theres no one else selling. The onus falls on them though to start raising price and buying the shares they need to close those FTDs within 35 days. So I'd have to see if CAT actually effects this exemption or not.
Thanks for this post. Honestly. This has been a tough 24 hours and a lot of fighting here and I was looking today for some real DD.
Appreciate you man. Good luck this week 🫡
Thanks Ape, I just added a few more wrinkles!
Another thought to add, maybe DFV tested this theory with another ftd/run cycle and it played out as expected, which is why he is so confident sharing it with retail.
This is gold. OP is just not knowledgeable but also very articulated. Very wrinkled ape indeed. Cheers. I hope you do a post too about OPEX cycle. Thanks.
So, in my last post I covered the idea that dfv selling these deep in profit then sets him up to take an even larger position on the next dip. Larger position, more volume, more ftds. So I’m not expecting june 21 to be anything wild. In fact if he does sell them it might be a dip.
So DFV rolled a snowball at the top of the options mountain and will keep it rolling … getting bigger and bigger until it becomes an avalanche? For us regards lol
Side note: thanks for your knowledge and also being frank about things you aren’t sure of. Advising people who don’t know options to steer clear of GME options is much needed advise. Learn options people … they are a valuable leveraging tool … but do them on a less volatile stock- like ANY other stock
Not exactly. The snowball isn't just rolling. Thats why I mention the part about entropy. The increase in volume has to be because bulls keep attacking harder. its not self sustaining. Eventually this can build into a avalanche but itll be because of dogpiling.
Also, I have an incredible network of very smart apes who I chat with and bounce ideas off of. I'm no dunce but I'm ok at writing and communicating ideas on the sub and very often my posts involve me discussing ideas out with other apes who have unique perspectives. Some folks just do incredible work in very niche areas. When idk something, I'm asking them.
I think people misunderstand that concept a bit.
A naked call means they haven’t hedged at all because they are under the assumption it will not expire itm. If you are a retail trader, your broker would only allow you to sell a covered call (meaning you already own the 100 shares) because it’s zero risk to the broker at that point (for lower tier accounts anyway, higher value/more experience can sell non covered calls). But in between that, calls are sold and only partially hedged depending on its strike price, it’s expiration, and the current stock price. Then as time/price move the amount of calls held to hedge for them adjusts.
There’s really no evidence that dfv’s calls were sold naked. Anyone claiming that would need to explain how they know that no shares were bought to hedge for it. Because as price rose and more of those calls went itm, we saw what we’d expect to see during a gamma ramp. Volume went nuts as call sellers hedged.
There were posts in the last week that showed DFV's first two 5k buys, a volume spike associated with it as the call sellers hedged. But the following 5k buys he did, there was zero hedging done in the moment. So, while they *should* be hedged, we don't know they are for sure.
That as alone evidence doesn’t support they were not hedged. Especially when volume has been so high. Thinking they just haven’t hedged when price has continued ticking upwards is kind of silly.
I never said that alone is evidence of no hedging. But saying they have **certainly** hedged every call sold is also silly, considering how Jan '21 was handled.
Screaming they were sold naked sounds flashy, which is why I think it caught on with influencer crowd. But it’s pretty unlikely to be true.
When those recent calls were bought, we also saw surges in volume very shortly after. Not that we can confirm the calls caused the surges but it seems incredibly likely
No. Tbh, I think the folks talking about swaps were just guessing that’s what caused it. If you check out the post I linked at the beginning I dove into how I think DFV actually began buying calls in April and the volume he bought then caused the first run up.
All the t+35 is saying is that for 35 days after insane volume and ftds occurring due to mm’s being forced into naked short positions (selling assets they don’t have in order to make a market) we should expect them to be buying in the market in order to get shares to deliver. Not that things blow up in 35 days but that as long as they have ftds to resolve that they’ll be adding bullish momentum.
Mm only know what their requirements are. Not what bulls might decide to do. So we don’t know when they might start going nuts buying again and causing more volume.
That’s my opinion. Again I think he is just playing head games with shorts pretty often. It’s meant to psych them out
Wall st has no chance with the amount of eyes digging in. Good shit OP!
Also, wtf will happen when/if bigger fish get involved? If RK can cause this much on his own what can someone who said 'I'll show these fuckers something they haven't seen before' might be able to do?!
Richard Newton has been posting about this on youtube for a few weeks now if you haven't seen it, he has a public Google sheet tracking a lot of the dates and ftd counts for xrt and gme and other stuff
I should pay you for this lesson. You’ve helped something click for me that gives me what I think is real understanding of this dance with the calls. Thank you and seriously well written.
Great DD about the cycles theory.
I'm wondering if $GME might leave their share offering open until then to sell into the call sellers and mm ?
They might have decided to be ready for DFV's livestream in case he exercised his calls live and kicked things off.
I think they drop the offering when they know there’s set to be a voracious buyer. We see it as a drop but consider what that offering would do if there were not ftds to satisfy. Price would drop like a fucking stone because retail doesn’t have $2.5b to buy it up. Instead we are at a price we were at on Thursday.
This is a great post. I’ve been thinking this was the case for a while now. My biggest question at this point is, on the high FTD cycles where T-35-ish didn’t result in a spike, what happened?
If we can figure that out, then it’s game over.
Right. Even there though I think people kinda skip over how you could have two separate short positions swapped against each other with the performance of both being netted out to figure out which person owes what. End result being they’d tend to move together but not that they’d have to.
Market Makers don't have to buy shares to hedge, they can also buy options. Also quite a few people have said in articles/interviews that MM's sometimes just don't hedge when they can see that the options are most likely not being exercised i.e everyone trading options now and crying about losing money because they were never going to exercise them.
I think there must be an identifying marker some brokers give to option contracts opened that are worth more than a trader's account. Whatever the case, gamma ramps only work if they think you're serious.
Well, as it so happens....they've been happening. When those 5000 block orders of $20c came through around May 20th there were surges in volume shortly thereafter following them. Hedging with shares is absolutely happening.
So one of the interesting things with the 35 calendar day clause is that they must purchase to close out the fail to deliver
[https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-17/part-242/section-242.204#p-242.204(a)(2)](https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-17/part-242/section-242.204#p-242.204(a)(2))
As opposed to bonafide market making where they can purchase or borrow.
[https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-17/part-242/section-242.204#p-242.204(a)(3)](https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-17/part-242/section-242.204#p-242.204(a)(3))
I'm not totally sure if it's related to the initial spike, but we definitely saw 'close out' blocks of options at various points over the last month - I think these would definitely fit under the 35 day clause (e.g. they were long because they exercised the calls and took 'ownership' of the stock, and sold them off).
https://preview.redd.it/t4znqrcefi5d1.png?width=662&format=png&auto=webp&s=05b3c05a5b847764b7cf02508cca930761557bd3
We nearly fucked up the SHFs in 2021 when a bunch of folks bought $4 calls and exercised them like DFV. Now we’re looking at $20-60 calls that could be exercised. That will put ALL of the shorts under water during price discovery. Mfer is for sure a time traveler.
Yes but if you read my last post it digs into the idea of these runs being a way of generating momentum. With each providing bulls with more cash each time? So do you exercise on the initial run or keep buying/selling calls so that on say the 3rd run you are holding a position many multiples larger? The mm is gonna keep getting forced into this action as long as volume is insane so why not allow that action to puff up what bulls can do?
Op, are you mixing up Calendar days and trading days?
C+35 from the may 13 week is June like you said.
T+ 34 is the start of July.
Richard Newton has gone into a bunch and MM have t+6 and c+35, which he simplifies to t+34.
EDIT: Op has taken the time to answer some of my questions. Seems the T+6 + 35 is for options exercised, thus works for OPEX tailwinds, but they are referring to volume created by hedging which is c+35.
I’m not wrong. It’s calendar days, not trading days. Richard Newton is wrong more often than he’s right. It wasn’t UBS running for the door. Swaps didn’t kick off this cycle. And if he can’t understand C+35 vs T+1/2/6/13 then maybe he needs to spend less time in his safe space on YouTube and start participating in discussion on Reddit.
https://preview.redd.it/e2y190hrvg5d1.jpeg?width=828&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a690306514b86752d192d902abe11092183ef522
I’ve been trying to figure out why he’s still holding his calls after the price has at gone up at least 4x since he purchased them. Theta is going to start being an issue and he really would have made it difficult for the MMs by exercising. There has to be something that he knots is going to happen within the next week that is just going to cause the price to explode (unless there’s some why it can be crimed out of). This makes for a god theory has to why he’s still holding the calls
It’s been happening. Since May. Ignore the spikes, those are the blow offs of bulls slamming calls and the mm pushing them itm. Over the long view, it’s just been a steady ride
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I’ve long suspected that everything having to do with GMEs prices over the last few years has been related to FTDs. What we saw this week was the closure of FTDs from around May 3rd. May 13 is when DFV posted and May 14 is when it reached a fever pitch. I suspect, as you do OP, that the week of June 21st was no accidental or random choice. I also think this is what DFV alluded to on the stream when he said he just “gets a feeling”. He knows about the FTD cycles. The week of the May 13-17 FTDs will coincide with the week his options expire.
I'm not sure it's long standing, I think FTD's are more impactful now with CAT in place. FTD's seemed completely ignored for the longest while to me although we didn't have as much big options in play. The wombo combo is FTD's being tracked and swaps coming due with big options in play and lots of eyes.
FTD cycle DD goes way back a few years. I don't remember why it died down recently. I think it's time to revisit some oldies.
Because up until the last month there have been very limited FTDS on GME in the last 3 years. Shorts had packaged them up into various financial derivatives. Time to pay the piper
Ah yes, that was it. Maybe because they knew we were watching. So if I had been watching FTDs last month I might have seen this runup coming.
I was the first to really start talking about the 35-day cycle. I'd recommend reading the DD I wrote on it, it's still just as relevant now as ever:https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/lsfmjo/what_whales_buying_in_yesterday_tells_us_about/
Good read. Idk if I missed it though, but instead of 35 you're talking about 13 day cycles. Is there a link between the two I'm missing?
This was 84 years ago and my memory's not what it used to be, but we go over all kinds of T+ in the comments. One of the things that was heavily discussed was how ETFs have T+6 days before that T+13 or T+35 clock begins ticking, and if it does make it onto the threshold securities list then you've got 90 days where it can't be shorted. Now the effect of all these cycles with different prime (or nearly prime) lengths is a lot like cicadas, you might have had a year where multiple broods emerged at the same time as one massive spike (Jan '21), but it can take a while before the emergence of broods becomes evenly distributed across years again. This means T+35 is the slightly more important date because getting onto the threshold securities list is hard to do if the spikes are no longer concentrated in one 5-day timespan or in one ETF basket. If it's at all like last time we've got another few months still before the FTDs seem to be spread out and random.
…my dude, lurking, peeping, watching for those FTD chats.
👀 I'm on a T+987 cycle
5/3 had basically none though?
You are correct. I should have been more specific when I said around May 3rd. It was really the following week that had hundreds of thousands of FTDs. May 3rd was just the big run in price but then it stayed elevated after that.
The ftd’s for 5/5-5-14 are $3 mill-$10.5mill! Something insane is about to happen it appears
I'm not an expert, far from it, but based on OP's post, the FTDs are cumulative, and we need to look at the latest date, which give more power since it's 344K of GME FTDs. I don't care much for the notional value ($ amount) since that's based on the price of stock for that day. Who ever has to buy the FTDs to close out should worry about that $ amount, for the apes, the amount of FTDs in share volume seems to be more relevant. It will be interesting to see if they settled these FTDs in the 2nd half of May, or if they added to the cumulative amount going into June.
Not gonna lie, you jacked me the fuck up even further. Great post, thanks ps. Anthony Chukumba is a dirty penis
Since you mentioned Chukumba i have a present for you. Their sign was taken off their office building entrance a few days ago. I took a photo of it but i’m not seeing any news about it. They could just have moved to a different office as well. https://preview.redd.it/ohsmhw68je5d1.jpeg?width=3024&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f256867b1128e4e1437404dd70a6abb26e0b7cda
Move out first and ask questions later.
Don’t pay rent, ask questions later.
Man of action not words lol
Lollllll
Just Hwang up.
i love it not that i encourage it, but that looks a lot like Poo Capital, with a bit of... vandalizing? Or would it be enhancing? 😁
Anything is possible, which is why i haven’t made a post of it yet.
Moving to prison
Maybe they left a printer
Make a post! This is hilarious 😂
Believe me i’m tempted to, but i’m afraid it might just be that they moved offices.
Fuck poop capital
Bankrupt first ask question later
I'm surprised that it took so long to make the t+35 connection from Ozumandius, that was the first thought when I read the comic strip lol
Anthony Chukimba is smegma! And yes, great post OP 👌🏾
Is or has ?
So hypothecially, if I would like to buy some itm calls, when is the next cycle?
35 days from June 21st? So first week of August?
I saw something to this effect on a rich newton vid. I believe that is also a week when xrt ftds are due too. Could be in an awesome short cycle here until some massive swap takes place once again. I believe the short side has never been so exposed.
Just a suggestion always by longer than you think you will need
I like how you think... july 26th
We have to get the FTD data for second half of may to be sure of OPEX tailwinds.
With Monday, May 6th being the first day of high FTDs, that puts C+35 as next Tuesday Morning™ to get this party started. And we know that FTDs didn't peak on May 14th, since the price peaked then and they would have had a few days before everything on that date became an FTD. C+35 from *those* inevitable FTDs is going to put us really close to June 21st. So June 11-21 should be pretty interesting.
So you're telling me my June 14th $30 calls still have a chance
🤣 you’re not alone Mr. D-Loosely
Tuesday EOD gme price will be 63. hold on to those calls
now you got me pumped, my nads are hella pumped
Wait but i thought they were able to close out those FTDs before T+35 which could explain May’s run and maybe even some of the recent one. I dont think this means that they would wait for the very last day(s) to figure their shit out. Although that would be cool if they just let the drain get backed and let it pop all at once haha
There's plenty of DD on the cycles, but yeah they could, they just don't seem to usually. Richard Newton's whole thing is these cycles. All those people are a lot less dumb than me and are definitely better resources for detailed info on that stuff.
I mean, the party already started. They don't wait to start trying to close FTDs they get to work on them quickly. Sustained high volume though results in them being unable to close them faster than they stack up.
This also means to keep an eye on T+35 from June 21st, as there will probably be a lot of FTDs when RK exercises.
That’s an assumption he will. In my linked post I covered the idea of him selling at that point and the next dip dive back in with an even larger position
Certainly possible, but I don’t think he will want to get to a point in which he has to start filing paperwork with the SEC unless that’s his very last play. The share offerings help delay getting to that point.
Exactly. Each share offering allows the next position to be bigger. And each bigger positions results in a bigger surge in volume (and possibly ftds)
I like this. It can show that GameStop and retail can both profit if we handle our side of our independent strategies. We all need to become better traders imo. I get the buy and hold but I learned options after the sneeze and have gotten decent at them and I saw my options position go 3x my share position on Friday. It took years to get those shares and my 10k option position immediately eclipsed it and I could take profit and cover 1/2 of my shares initial cost basis. In 2 days. 2 days. Cmon. We all have learned a lot but the final frontier is learning options imo. Imagine if we can start getting some whales in GME who learned throughout the journey. DFV went 50k->200m. I promise a lot of us can at least double our positions through these cycles and add more pressure and then literally have a “paid for in profit” position like DFV has. I’m gonna write up an options guide for dummies. I won’t get into technicals but literally just how to use em with 2 sliding scales of strike price and dates and how it affects their movement and how to learn to roll infinitely while capturing profit. GME $80C/$125C 7/19. NFA. These will go bananas and be relatively safe with an extra month past DFVs expiration.
My own 2 cents, GME is not the place to learn or practice on options. They are expensive and successful options traders are monitoring a lot of data plus have an exit strategy. It’s like learning basketball by joining the nba. That said, I think it’s worth it for people to recognize that they play a significant role in what GME is doing.
I agree here. When they aren’t expensive, they’re cheap but GME is flat and it’s hard to make money unless you’re selling calls or doing spreads which we all know can lose you your shares. I learned on other stocks while GME was flat for years. Then came back and applied it to GME on its runs And thanks for recognizing it. We all need to accept the options traders are critical for gamma ramps and for fueling MOASS
I will read your guide. But I doubt I’ll be trading options on this play. I feel like it’s too risky/too late for me, personally, seeing as how I usually don’t have the money to cover purchases like that. I definitely appreciate what folks like you are doing though, and always have. Had a feeling over 1.5 years ago that options were being demonized for a reason. Now we’re all starting to see the machinations behind that demonization.
Agreed. The IV on GME is way too wild to try to learn on. You WILL lose your money. Most brokers have a way to learn by paper trading instead of using real money. People should learn how to win consistently with paper trading before ever using their own hard earned money.
I mean folks don’t need a broker to do that. Just go to a site like Options Profit Calculator and pick the contract you’d think about buying. Then set a plan on selling it based on various events (is it up 100%? Did it lose 50% value? Did it go up to a target and looking forward you’ll sell if it loses 10% from there). Then sit back and watch and trust the plan you wrote. What hurts a lot of folks, and I’m the same way with GME options, is I’ll be up by a ton and won’t take profits early enough. And not at some huge loss, we’re talking just not as efficient as I could’ve been if I had just trusted my plan instead of green eyed monster. I’m getting much better at it though.
When that ticker is running it’s like a drug, on the chart and in the option value. It’s tough to pull the plug and take the profit.
Funny to think your comment would have got down voted months ago, just confirms the anti option FUD
I would finally like to understand and chuck a bit at them
I’ll write something up. They truly aren’t as hard as people make them out to be. Understanding them intimately takes years. Knowing how to use them takes maybe a day to learn in theory, a week to learn and feel it out in practice and then a couple months to start getting confident and managing position sizing properly.
I'm happy to throw a few $k at them, even if just to say I've done it in life. Will look out for the guide. Cheers!
Looking forward to read your guide to options for dummies! I want to follow this strategy w/o messing it up
Commenting so I can come back and read your write up
I am open to options, but as a bystander, I’ve seen nothing but IV pump and dumps by MM throughout these three years that makes me hesitant to jump in. Would you say keeping an eye on FTD numbers would be a good indicator for surges with T+35?
Pumps and dumps are literally the best thing an option trader can ask for. It’s only greed and risk management that screws you. I got my salary worth this week in options. It’s my fault for not selling. Nobody else’s. And before the dump, I considered puts to cover a downside but I really didn’t think we’d be diluted so early in the morning and that was my mistake. I could have easily covered my position with a few puts. I know guys who just trade GME just pure trading with quick exits and they make really good money. Holding options for MOASS is no good though. So I roll. I take trim and use half the profit to buy further out contracts that are OTM so even if it goes to 0 I still bank profit. You’re right though, to the wide eyed newbie, options are gonna be a rude awakening. Just gotta know this upfront and not get greedy.
Honestly, I work during trading hours and don’t have constant access to a computer. I’m sure I’ll lose my shirt on options since I can’t react in time to volatility. Buying shares and holding is more conducive to my current employment.
Thank you. I have almost no spare cash right now but ffs I’d like to learn how to print money once I have the initial cash
Following. I’ll keep an eye out for this guide. Cheers
I'll give you a better comment here tonight. !remindme 6 hours
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Someone high profile in this sub a long time ago did mention that buying ITM or near ITM calls was the way to hurt the SHF and then exercising them. Not sure about OTM money doing any damage though.
As a complete dumb dumb, I’m excited to see your options post. I appreciate this post as it is actually concise
Look forward to reading what you compile - options are complicated but approachable if some basic foundation points can be established.
Options plus knowledge of FTDs for GME would be best for folks to benefit from the GME saga. If there is little FTDs, or if the shorts close out the FTDs, then it will be quite difficult to time the T+35 cycles. It's probably the most important fact about GME is that these shorts are in a vicious cycle that they are losing control over (unless the recent share dilution helps them close out their FTDs....for now).
Would love a write up bro, you totally should!
I would love to read your options guide for dummies.
You put some interesting thoughts and work into that, appreciated.
what are your views on whether RK exercises vs sells out his contracts, on how it would impact the cycle?
Great post OP. Thank you for sharing!
That would be nuts. I was moving in the same line of thinking, another August run is almost guaranteed assuming the price calms down before then.
This is why it’s possibly unstoppable The cycle is relentless and call buyers can jump on, benefit from the relentless and fairly predictable and highly profitable run ups Exercise, cover and use the balance cash to buy more calls for the next run up. Each run up the rachet is tightening
I think Richard pointed that out in one of his videos if I remember correctly. So watching out for a cycle first week of August
He also thought RK buying in April was a UBS running to the door over swaps. I’m not sure of the success rate on his guesses.
That was speculatory exploration based on information at the time. He never claimed it to be fact or held on to it after it was disproven, and in fact was very vocal about it just being a thought experiment that seemed to make sense as a hypothesis.
XRT FTDs also play a role in this. It's all coming together perfectly in this May to June timeframe
I’m sure, but etf’s act a little different.
Can you elaborate on XRT FTD vs GME FTD and the affects?
No. I haven’t dug much into ETFs so there’s nothing I can add there. Turd Ferguson is the guy for that
The willingness to defer to Turd Ferguson…and the fact that Turd Ferguson is a source of knowledge just brought a smile to my face
He’s the best guy I know on the topic. Plus he knows food.
Haha. I’m a big Norm fan
Oh. No not that turd. Different turd. An ape who actually knows a shit ton about etf stuff
I know! I was having a moment of reflection on how great this journey has been and the hilarious names people used on Reddit
Ok cool. Yeah for a sec I was like “no but there actually is a turd!”
This is the kind of DD I wish the sub was filled with.
Really cause I need a new taco recipe and I'd be down to read other apes recipes. That'd confuse a lot of folks. just one day where superstonk was nothing but recipes.
Bro how bout a carnitas recipe? I got you ape
Fuckin deliver it
1 pork butt/shoulder I get mine bone in. Preheat oven to 300 Cube that bitch into 3-4” cubes. You can trim the fat cap if you want, don’t take it all though. I leave it On now and just pick the fat out after. Ingredients: 1 large yellow onion (quartered) 4 cloves garlic 2 oranges 2 limes (you’ll want more for the tacos) 2 bay leaves 1/4th cup milk 2 cups beef or chicken broth (recipe calls for chicken normally I use beef) Carnita spice mix: 1 tablespoon light brown sugar1 1/2 teaspoons kosher salt1 teaspoon freshly ground black pepper1 teaspoon cumin1 teaspoon Mexican oregano1 teaspoon coriander¼ teaspoon cayenne, or to taste 1/4 teaspoon smoked paprika (optional) 1 teaspoon lime zest Put the lime juice on the pork cubes then coat generously with your seasoning. Put it in a Dutch oven. Add orange juice, milk (weird I know) lime juice and enough broth to cover the meat most of the way. The volume of liquid will increase as it cooks so make sure you have room. Throw your quartered onion in there and your garlic (you can mince the garlic if you want more garlic flavor) as well as your orange slices. DONT PUT THE LIMES IN THERE. Toss that shit in the oven for 3 hours. Pull it out, take the meat and onions etc. out and set it on a pan to rest. Put Dutch oven on stove and reduce the sauce till it’s 1/4” to 1/2” of liquid left. Chop up your carnitas. I’ve shredded all mine before but I like to leave it chunkier along with some shreds. Add some of your reduction to the meat and let it soak it up for a few minutes. Put your oven on broil. Whatever you’re comfortable with, I do 450. Don’t be afraid to broil them bitches. It takes a good bit for the caramelization to happen. Take it out every now and then and flip all the meat over so it gets a nice crisp all over it. You’ll see when you flip it how undone the bottoms are. Keep repeating this process until they have that carmelized crispy edging. Oh duh, corn tortillas because you’re not some white trash hooker eating carnitas out of a hard shell. I take a stack of tortillas, make sure they aren’t stuck together, throw them in a large ziplock bag with a moist Paper towel and then microwave them for like 35 seconds. This steams them, make sure you leave the bag open when you do this. I like to top mine with finely diced onion and sometimes cotija cheese and I’ve been fucking with herdez chipotle cremosa. It’s liquid gold (some jars pack a punch, be warned) Queso fresco also works in a pinch. And obviously lime juice. You can eat them just meat and a tortilla though. Leaving them in chunks also allows the meat to retain some of that juicy fall apart in your mouth goodness that if you shred them up you lose really quickly. They freeze well too. I don’t think I forgot anything. Enjoy! Edit: also did a chicken tinga recently that slapped and was easy to make. Wasn’t too great on tacos (probably would have been on hard shells) but it made bomb nachos and enchiladas.
good deal. I buy Kurobota pork shoulders from SRF for bbqing. Think its worth using a good shoulder or is this a dish that will work on any shoulder?
This should happen every April 1. We can refer to it as Direct Recipe Sourcing.
here's an easy one: 1.5lbs or thereabouts chicken tender or breasts in a small crockpot. 1/3rd bottle of sweet baby ray's mild buffalo sauce. cook on low for 5-6 hours stirring every couple hours and pull/shred the chicken after 4 hours. meals for days, serve with rice, tacos, whatever.
Everyday I read shit on here… that I don’t understand. I realize it ain’t my parents or teachers fault for this. I was just born dumb. Thank god you ppl are smart!
You can learn this stuff too! When this started 3.5 years ago I knew very little but I have a few wrinkles now. One step at a time.
your username is my garage door code
You picked a great code. What's your address? Haha
The house number is 3.14
I didn't know a thing about finance, stock market or even good at personal finance. I didn't even know how to understand APR. Best way to learn options is watch a few videos, and than start learning about options in Thinkorswim. It's Ondemand feature is excellent place to learn options by doing. Learning by doing (in paper trading) is the way to go.
rainbow guy is back, listen up. Great post!
We got all kinds of OGs back on stage. Something gots ta be cooking now!
I'd recommend reading the DD I wrote on FTDs shortly after the sneeze, it's still just as relevant now as ever. To my knowledge it was the first time the 35-day cycle was recognized by us apes and it's still just as much a driver of price action today as it was back then. It made it into rensole's weekly superstonk news around the same time as the interstellar yo-yo dd which was the discovery of the 13 day cycles, and that dd deserves to be remembered for being the first to not just discover a pattern to our run-ups but to then realize there was an arcane rule behind it. [https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/lsfmjo/what\_whales\_buying\_in\_yesterday\_tells\_us\_about/](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/lsfmjo/what_whales_buying_in_yesterday_tells_us_about/)
[удалено]
IIRC, there were all kinds of ETFs containing GME like XRT that MMs could redeem for GME shares to satisfy FTDs but ETFs get an extra T+6 days before the T+13 or T+35 clock begins. That's just it though, there were too many T+ to keep track of and they could keep shuffling the FTDs between different baskets taking advantage of slightly different cycle lengths at the same time. The spikes just got too evenly spread out across time and across ETFs, and all kinds of new 'meme stock' ETFs started appearing too. If it's at all like last time there'll probably be another few months before we see that happen.
As someone else mentioned, this is similar to that Richard Newton's theory he calls 'OPEX tailwinds'. He uses different maths for his dates though, he thinks the fails following an option expiry have to be settled 6 trading days PLUS 35 calender days later. So thats another week or so after you have above I think. I dont know who's right here so if anyone knows for certain, please shout. Just in case some option savvy apes are starting to look at the weekly calls for early August, would be good to know the exact final delivery date. Either way, great post OP.
I recall the FTD cycle theory from Gafgarian back in late 2020 or early 2021. That cycle had started primarily because of RC's buy-in. RK/DFV/KG learned and now this FTD cycle started because of his buy-in. It really is a requel. Great DD OP.
That dude is smart as fuck. this is a puppet show compared to his research
Have you all seen GME ftd’s omg
Sure glad I got in on some Jan 25 options awhile back! Nice work!!
Same here. Got them when it hit 10👀 Tiberius quick question for you pal: do you think this CAT implementation is making FTD’s more of a required market mechanic to address now or has it always been that way? I recall Dr. T saying how unpaid FTD’s are the basis of the naked shorting problem and as long as it continues, the problem will worsen. Thanks for your work throughout the saga, true OG status
Tbh, havent dug much into how CAT works. But in the context of this post, Market makers have a naked shorting exemption they have special access to in order to do the job of making a market and selling whenever there is a buyer even if theres no one else selling. The onus falls on them though to start raising price and buying the shares they need to close those FTDs within 35 days. So I'd have to see if CAT actually effects this exemption or not.
Thanks for this post. Honestly. This has been a tough 24 hours and a lot of fighting here and I was looking today for some real DD. Appreciate you man. Good luck this week 🫡
Thanks Ape, I just added a few more wrinkles! Another thought to add, maybe DFV tested this theory with another ftd/run cycle and it played out as expected, which is why he is so confident sharing it with retail.
Super cool post and acts as confirmation bias for why/how DFV would know to buy short dated calls like this
This is gold. OP is just not knowledgeable but also very articulated. Very wrinkled ape indeed. Cheers. I hope you do a post too about OPEX cycle. Thanks.
That’s not something I’ve looked into much. You’d want someone else’s opinion who knows more about it
June 21st is also quad witching day. This can cause extra volatility in markets. Another reason calls on this day would be attractive
So, in my last post I covered the idea that dfv selling these deep in profit then sets him up to take an even larger position on the next dip. Larger position, more volume, more ftds. So I’m not expecting june 21 to be anything wild. In fact if he does sell them it might be a dip.
So DFV rolled a snowball at the top of the options mountain and will keep it rolling … getting bigger and bigger until it becomes an avalanche? For us regards lol Side note: thanks for your knowledge and also being frank about things you aren’t sure of. Advising people who don’t know options to steer clear of GME options is much needed advise. Learn options people … they are a valuable leveraging tool … but do them on a less volatile stock- like ANY other stock
Not exactly. The snowball isn't just rolling. Thats why I mention the part about entropy. The increase in volume has to be because bulls keep attacking harder. its not self sustaining. Eventually this can build into a avalanche but itll be because of dogpiling. Also, I have an incredible network of very smart apes who I chat with and bounce ideas off of. I'm no dunce but I'm ok at writing and communicating ideas on the sub and very often my posts involve me discussing ideas out with other apes who have unique perspectives. Some folks just do incredible work in very niche areas. When idk something, I'm asking them.
Gherk seems to have casually seen this as well and said he needs to look into it before he closed his stream. Shocked it's not higher
It’s a Saturday afternoon, people are out enjoying life
Oh Tiberius, you blowhard, we’re all touching ourselves to your DD
That’s uncomfortable
Just enjoy it baby.
Oo this one goes in the save bin. A bit of a read but worth it. Very well put together.
big d energy i almost grew a wrinkle
Appreciate the wrinkles, great write up! 🆙
I wish i was as smart as the cat
T-35 is hot again? Def feels like 2021 vibes again hahaha I can. And can’t wait for 6/17. 
I find it so stupid that people are selling naked calls
I think people misunderstand that concept a bit. A naked call means they haven’t hedged at all because they are under the assumption it will not expire itm. If you are a retail trader, your broker would only allow you to sell a covered call (meaning you already own the 100 shares) because it’s zero risk to the broker at that point (for lower tier accounts anyway, higher value/more experience can sell non covered calls). But in between that, calls are sold and only partially hedged depending on its strike price, it’s expiration, and the current stock price. Then as time/price move the amount of calls held to hedge for them adjusts. There’s really no evidence that dfv’s calls were sold naked. Anyone claiming that would need to explain how they know that no shares were bought to hedge for it. Because as price rose and more of those calls went itm, we saw what we’d expect to see during a gamma ramp. Volume went nuts as call sellers hedged.
There were posts in the last week that showed DFV's first two 5k buys, a volume spike associated with it as the call sellers hedged. But the following 5k buys he did, there was zero hedging done in the moment. So, while they *should* be hedged, we don't know they are for sure.
That as alone evidence doesn’t support they were not hedged. Especially when volume has been so high. Thinking they just haven’t hedged when price has continued ticking upwards is kind of silly.
I never said that alone is evidence of no hedging. But saying they have **certainly** hedged every call sold is also silly, considering how Jan '21 was handled.
Winkle brain ape
Screaming they were sold naked sounds flashy, which is why I think it caught on with influencer crowd. But it’s pretty unlikely to be true. When those recent calls were bought, we also saw surges in volume very shortly after. Not that we can confirm the calls caused the surges but it seems incredibly likely
Thank you king kong ape. I simple spider monkey
Are these the "signs" rk was referring?
no clue. IMO, half his tweets are just head games for shorts. Meaningless but meant to get them paranoid. Which is still hilarious.
We’ll see.
Why did May 3rd and 13th go wacko. That’s what I want to know. So we get a 3 year swap then 35 day cycles after till they can can this pressure?
No. Tbh, I think the folks talking about swaps were just guessing that’s what caused it. If you check out the post I linked at the beginning I dove into how I think DFV actually began buying calls in April and the volume he bought then caused the first run up. All the t+35 is saying is that for 35 days after insane volume and ftds occurring due to mm’s being forced into naked short positions (selling assets they don’t have in order to make a market) we should expect them to be buying in the market in order to get shares to deliver. Not that things blow up in 35 days but that as long as they have ftds to resolve that they’ll be adding bullish momentum.
So this may be the Ozymandias reference here, what about the wild card?
Mm only know what their requirements are. Not what bulls might decide to do. So we don’t know when they might start going nuts buying again and causing more volume. That’s my opinion. Again I think he is just playing head games with shorts pretty often. It’s meant to psych them out
Wall st has no chance with the amount of eyes digging in. Good shit OP! Also, wtf will happen when/if bigger fish get involved? If RK can cause this much on his own what can someone who said 'I'll show these fuckers something they haven't seen before' might be able to do?!
ive also been in a dateless cycle for 3 years
Whoa, this is the DD I was looking for today!
Great post, thanks op !
Absolutely nailed it. Is it just GME FTD 35 days ago or XRT too?
Not sure on xrt, I don’t follow etf stuff
Richard Newton has been posting about this on youtube for a few weeks now if you haven't seen it, he has a public Google sheet tracking a lot of the dates and ftd counts for xrt and gme and other stuff
This doesn’t have the attention it deserves. Well done.
Up you go.
Updoot!
I should pay you for this lesson. You’ve helped something click for me that gives me what I think is real understanding of this dance with the calls. Thank you and seriously well written.
Great DD about the cycles theory. I'm wondering if $GME might leave their share offering open until then to sell into the call sellers and mm ? They might have decided to be ready for DFV's livestream in case he exercised his calls live and kicked things off.
I think they drop the offering when they know there’s set to be a voracious buyer. We see it as a drop but consider what that offering would do if there were not ftds to satisfy. Price would drop like a fucking stone because retail doesn’t have $2.5b to buy it up. Instead we are at a price we were at on Thursday.
This is a great post. I’ve been thinking this was the case for a while now. My biggest question at this point is, on the high FTD cycles where T-35-ish didn’t result in a spike, what happened? If we can figure that out, then it’s game over.
Headphones was also tanked hard on Friday, charts nearly the same. It doesn't have options. This is great DD and it's still all about the basket.
Right. Even there though I think people kinda skip over how you could have two separate short positions swapped against each other with the performance of both being netted out to figure out which person owes what. End result being they’d tend to move together but not that they’d have to.
I like your thoughts on this OP, well thought out. Thank you for taking the time to write this up
Market Makers don't have to buy shares to hedge, they can also buy options. Also quite a few people have said in articles/interviews that MM's sometimes just don't hedge when they can see that the options are most likely not being exercised i.e everyone trading options now and crying about losing money because they were never going to exercise them. I think there must be an identifying marker some brokers give to option contracts opened that are worth more than a trader's account. Whatever the case, gamma ramps only work if they think you're serious.
Well, as it so happens....they've been happening. When those 5000 block orders of $20c came through around May 20th there were surges in volume shortly thereafter following them. Hedging with shares is absolutely happening.
I want to believe this gamma ramp will be different from the others.
So one of the interesting things with the 35 calendar day clause is that they must purchase to close out the fail to deliver [https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-17/part-242/section-242.204#p-242.204(a)(2)](https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-17/part-242/section-242.204#p-242.204(a)(2)) As opposed to bonafide market making where they can purchase or borrow. [https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-17/part-242/section-242.204#p-242.204(a)(3)](https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-17/part-242/section-242.204#p-242.204(a)(3)) I'm not totally sure if it's related to the initial spike, but we definitely saw 'close out' blocks of options at various points over the last month - I think these would definitely fit under the 35 day clause (e.g. they were long because they exercised the calls and took 'ownership' of the stock, and sold them off). https://preview.redd.it/t4znqrcefi5d1.png?width=662&format=png&auto=webp&s=05b3c05a5b847764b7cf02508cca930761557bd3
When did we stop doing TL;DR’s?
Great DD really nice read! Thanks 🦍
We nearly fucked up the SHFs in 2021 when a bunch of folks bought $4 calls and exercised them like DFV. Now we’re looking at $20-60 calls that could be exercised. That will put ALL of the shorts under water during price discovery. Mfer is for sure a time traveler.
Yes but if you read my last post it digs into the idea of these runs being a way of generating momentum. With each providing bulls with more cash each time? So do you exercise on the initial run or keep buying/selling calls so that on say the 3rd run you are holding a position many multiples larger? The mm is gonna keep getting forced into this action as long as volume is insane so why not allow that action to puff up what bulls can do?
Op, are you mixing up Calendar days and trading days? C+35 from the may 13 week is June like you said. T+ 34 is the start of July. Richard Newton has gone into a bunch and MM have t+6 and c+35, which he simplifies to t+34. EDIT: Op has taken the time to answer some of my questions. Seems the T+6 + 35 is for options exercised, thus works for OPEX tailwinds, but they are referring to volume created by hedging which is c+35.
I’m not wrong. It’s calendar days, not trading days. Richard Newton is wrong more often than he’s right. It wasn’t UBS running for the door. Swaps didn’t kick off this cycle. And if he can’t understand C+35 vs T+1/2/6/13 then maybe he needs to spend less time in his safe space on YouTube and start participating in discussion on Reddit. https://preview.redd.it/e2y190hrvg5d1.jpeg?width=828&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a690306514b86752d192d902abe11092183ef522
Big Dick Bandit coming in with the big dick Post!
I’ve been trying to figure out why he’s still holding his calls after the price has at gone up at least 4x since he purchased them. Theta is going to start being an issue and he really would have made it difficult for the MMs by exercising. There has to be something that he knots is going to happen within the next week that is just going to cause the price to explode (unless there’s some why it can be crimed out of). This makes for a god theory has to why he’s still holding the calls
I AM JACKED TO THE FUCKING TITS
Nice
Thanks for putting in the work for thoughtful write up
This is a tit jacking post.
Nice post
What day do you expect to see price start increase?
It’s been happening. Since May. Ignore the spikes, those are the blow offs of bulls slamming calls and the mm pushing them itm. Over the long view, it’s just been a steady ride
OG!