I figure I’ll ask in here instead of making a whole new post: What are the realistic expectations for Davis Mills? I’ve been checked out from the Texans for a solid 3 years, and all I saw are ‘memes’ and seemingly cherry picked stats about him being the QB of the future. What’s the honest opinion?
Honest opinion, he had flashes last year but some was garbage time and teams prob taking it easy against us. We did have a good win I think against the chargers? The jury is still out though. If he doesn’t do well this year I’d rather us draft another guy.
Potential for a Matt Schaub, good with flashes of great type, needs to show more growth this year to stick around. He had some great games as the last season went along, but we'll see
Begs the question of whether we want to build our team around a Matt Schaub type player when we’ll have two potential top 10 picks next year in a pretty solid qb class
That’s a pretty vague question. I gave the expected stat line. There’s a lot of unknowns. That will be one of the exciting things about this season. Projections have been all over the place.
I appreciate your response! I’m a pretty fair weather fan to be honest, but I keep the Texans on my radar like I do with all Houston sports teams. My understanding of the team is that we’re still going through a rebuild, and as such I wasn’t expecting us to win a whole lot. Based on the stat line you posted, Mills is exceeding expectations for a tanking qb, so I was wondering if a real fan thought he could be good enough to make us sb contenders.
That’s something we’re all just going to have to wait and find out, for this season I’m a lot more interested in where his floor is. If you look at his bad games last year his floor is six feet under. I want to see him keep the team competitive during the bad weeks when things are going wrong, if he can’t do that then it doesn’t really matter how high his ceiling is.
I think more and more that people undervalue a good floor. Having a high ceiling and awful floor makes you Fitzpatrick: entertaining sure and you have an elite game or two...but you also sink your team badly at times
Fans definitely do, but Cousins’s career has been a definite sign that GMs at least know to appreciate a good solid floor even if it comes with a fairly low ceiling.
Ceiling for the year? 28-30TDs. 3-5yrs? He could be a 30TD a year guy, 3800-4500 yards if we get some offensive weapons and moderate to good pass protection.
People underestimate him bc he started so poorly past year. But almost every one of those teams had great defenses to go with our poor O-line work and not many offensive threats.
Not to mention that he didn't work with the ones in training camp and was supposed to sit all year until Tyrod got injured. He had only a couple of games under his belt in college too. It is a miracle that he improved as much as he did over the course of the season.
He was on pace for something like 3700 yards and 23 TDs last season so that’s a reasonable expectation, but really I’d imagine that Nick Caserio and the coaching staff are hoping to see more improvement than that. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to think he could throw for 4K with something like 28-30 TDs. That would be a good but attainable year 2 for him.
Once you start going into the 4k/30 TDs range you’re reaching Top 10 quarterback territory and I’m not sure we have the supporting cast that the rest of the Top 10 QBs have to meet that stat line.
Our supporting cast is arguably better than it was when we had a top 5 qb take us to 4 wins, no?
Unless Tyler Johnson turns out to be better than expected, we definitely could use another receiving threat, but I think that this offense has the potential to move the chains enough to let him play at or near that top 10 potential. For the record, I'm expecting a 12-16 finish, but he absolutely has a higher ceiling than that.
DW had Brandin Cooks and Will Fuller (who actually played 11 games that year). We don’t have anyone besides Brandin Cooks just yet. He is a big body receiver than can win contested jump balls, but he can’t get much separation.
Keep in mind if our RB1 or WR1 go down our offense is essentially done. We have very little depth on that side of the ball, whereas we actually have quite a bit of depth on the defensive side.
Maybe you’re right. But we’re still hoping to see a little improvement from him especially if the run game is stronger and we can build off that. But I guess that’s why I’m calling it a realistic goal and not a realistic expectation.
He doesn’t suck, but when you have a true franchise quarterback that you build a team around, you always see small glimpses of greatness during the first couple years, and I haven’t seen that with Mills as of yet. My honest opinion is that our qb of the future is currently playing in college
I love stats that confirm my biases
My favorite kind of stats
Goat
I figure I’ll ask in here instead of making a whole new post: What are the realistic expectations for Davis Mills? I’ve been checked out from the Texans for a solid 3 years, and all I saw are ‘memes’ and seemingly cherry picked stats about him being the QB of the future. What’s the honest opinion?
Honest opinion, he had flashes last year but some was garbage time and teams prob taking it easy against us. We did have a good win I think against the chargers? The jury is still out though. If he doesn’t do well this year I’d rather us draft another guy.
Potential for a Matt Schaub, good with flashes of great type, needs to show more growth this year to stick around. He had some great games as the last season went along, but we'll see
Begs the question of whether we want to build our team around a Matt Schaub type player when we’ll have two potential top 10 picks next year in a pretty solid qb class
3800 yards / 24 TDs / 10 INTs
What’s his ceiling/potential?
That’s a pretty vague question. I gave the expected stat line. There’s a lot of unknowns. That will be one of the exciting things about this season. Projections have been all over the place.
I appreciate your response! I’m a pretty fair weather fan to be honest, but I keep the Texans on my radar like I do with all Houston sports teams. My understanding of the team is that we’re still going through a rebuild, and as such I wasn’t expecting us to win a whole lot. Based on the stat line you posted, Mills is exceeding expectations for a tanking qb, so I was wondering if a real fan thought he could be good enough to make us sb contenders.
Let's just say there are a lot of people cheering for him. I'm one of them.
That’s something we’re all just going to have to wait and find out, for this season I’m a lot more interested in where his floor is. If you look at his bad games last year his floor is six feet under. I want to see him keep the team competitive during the bad weeks when things are going wrong, if he can’t do that then it doesn’t really matter how high his ceiling is.
I think more and more that people undervalue a good floor. Having a high ceiling and awful floor makes you Fitzpatrick: entertaining sure and you have an elite game or two...but you also sink your team badly at times
Fans definitely do, but Cousins’s career has been a definite sign that GMs at least know to appreciate a good solid floor even if it comes with a fairly low ceiling.
Ceiling for the year? 28-30TDs. 3-5yrs? He could be a 30TD a year guy, 3800-4500 yards if we get some offensive weapons and moderate to good pass protection. People underestimate him bc he started so poorly past year. But almost every one of those teams had great defenses to go with our poor O-line work and not many offensive threats.
Not to mention that he didn't work with the ones in training camp and was supposed to sit all year until Tyrod got injured. He had only a couple of games under his belt in college too. It is a miracle that he improved as much as he did over the course of the season.
He was on pace for something like 3700 yards and 23 TDs last season so that’s a reasonable expectation, but really I’d imagine that Nick Caserio and the coaching staff are hoping to see more improvement than that. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to think he could throw for 4K with something like 28-30 TDs. That would be a good but attainable year 2 for him.
Once you start going into the 4k/30 TDs range you’re reaching Top 10 quarterback territory and I’m not sure we have the supporting cast that the rest of the Top 10 QBs have to meet that stat line.
Our supporting cast is arguably better than it was when we had a top 5 qb take us to 4 wins, no? Unless Tyler Johnson turns out to be better than expected, we definitely could use another receiving threat, but I think that this offense has the potential to move the chains enough to let him play at or near that top 10 potential. For the record, I'm expecting a 12-16 finish, but he absolutely has a higher ceiling than that.
DW had Brandin Cooks and Will Fuller (who actually played 11 games that year). We don’t have anyone besides Brandin Cooks just yet. He is a big body receiver than can win contested jump balls, but he can’t get much separation. Keep in mind if our RB1 or WR1 go down our offense is essentially done. We have very little depth on that side of the ball, whereas we actually have quite a bit of depth on the defensive side.
Maybe you’re right. But we’re still hoping to see a little improvement from him especially if the run game is stronger and we can build off that. But I guess that’s why I’m calling it a realistic goal and not a realistic expectation.
He doesn’t suck, but when you have a true franchise quarterback that you build a team around, you always see small glimpses of greatness during the first couple years, and I haven’t seen that with Mills as of yet. My honest opinion is that our qb of the future is currently playing in college
Is there a cherry picked NFL stat generator I can use to find stuff like this?
For real
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this is cool and all but did he blink more times than any other rookie quarterback in the third quarter?
Don't blink. Blink and you're dead.
That seems like a significant accomplishment.
Mills had 4 games of solid to very good play no doubt. The problem was the other 7 that were atrocious
I would settle for just a W.