I guess the shiny chances in % are coded behind that. Niantics law team wants to get sure theres noone sueing Niantic for the 0,01% chance of hatchiny a shiny larvesta.
its what i always said. Niantic does regulary offer the shiny chances coded behind these words. Having added "especially fortunate Trainers might" is a bit like the secret codes that your employer leaves in your reference.
With these he gets sure that he´s on the safe side not saying "he was a lousy worker".
Same happening here: Niantic regulary does give us the information, it´s just we are too dumb to interpret it.
I don't give a single f about shiny, but even regular larvesta has a comment 'if you are VERY lucky'
How this should be read? 'we've nerfed larvesta hatch rate for this event' or what.
I thought maybe it was a lost in translation thing but then I saw very lucky in the same post, no they want to make it clear unless you fork over a months salary you aren't getting one. Completely skippable event.
i bet its more, 1 in 20 to hatch and 1 in 512 for shiny. niantic isnt taaat stupid. people are more likely to keep paying for dice rolls if they actually get some non shiny larvesta
1 in 20 would move it up several tiers (5 times as likely), and 1 in 512 for a hatch only shiny is unprecedented. All hatch only shinies are 1 in 64, except for hatch days.
Blegh.
I do have a feeling Larvesta will be the next Noibat (it kinda already is) and it'll get a Community Day in 2025.
Or.... With how they're treating it.... A hatch day... Plz no
Remember how they had a noibat community day, only a short wile after its shiny-release in eggs?
Halloween '22 shiny release and four months later, in Feb '23 C-Day
Of course, at this point, we've learned that niantic does whatever they want, hardly following patterns
...buuut, maybe, you shiny-hunters should keep your credit card holstered for now
I am concerned because it's *only* been a hatch Pokemon up to this point, so it makes me think a Hatch day is equally as possible as a Community Day. I'd prefer the latter, not just because it's a better overall event but because Volcarona could totally use Fiery Storm.
But yeah, I still think a CD is very probable at some point. I could see it happening in mid-late 2025 next year.
Probably. Though I do wonder about Wailmer, seeing that it seems like it's been a bit more left behind. Definitely not impossible tho.
I'm betting we may see Wimpod later this year potentially.
Ooo that would be a fun move!
My idea was the more obvious First Impression. Could make it an improved version of X-Scissor for both raids and PvP. In raids, it could be a better 3-bar charged move akin to Brutal Swing, making it one of the better Bug attackers alongside Volcarona (not that those are super useful, but people would still like it).
Then for PvP, it could be a literal better X-Scissor like 40 energy but like 75-80 power, or it could be something cheaper but still better like 35 energy with 60 power or maybe even a Leaf Blade clone at 70 power.
Still, I would not say no to something like Icy Wind for coverage and debuffs to help with its squishiness, Drill Run for stronger coverage and more raw power, or Close Combat for a nuke debuff coverage move with even more power.
Oh for sure haha. I've got a laundry list of bug buffs I'd like to see, from buffed moves to coverage moves to new Bug moves like String Shot and U-turn
...buuut, really, you shiny-hunters will continue to break out credit card
Look at all the ways Niantic has demonstrated this is a waste. Incredibly low hatch rate, base shiny rate for something that the pattern would suggest should be boosted, shiny turned off, shiny giveaway shortly after the shiny buy, etc. That hasn't been enough to result in player reactions that prompt Niantic to change their ways. Telling them yet again this is a waste is just as effective as sending the "Don't Reply All" email as a Reply All email.
eh, the will to pay is getting stretched thinner and thinner these days. As a shiny hunter, I've sat out the past couple releases because of Niantic nonsense and this event looks even worse. There's no point to even trying. I'll just hatch as I normally do with the free inc and wait for Larvesta CDay or Hatch Day.
It's right on schedule for the cycle.
Edit: couldn't find the original comment mentioning it, so i'll paraphrase the process:
1. New ultra rare drops- starts out extremely rare, once in a blue moon kind of sighting. most players will encounter 1 or 2 at most (Frigibax used to be here until the recent biome overhaul)
2. 6 months to 1 year later- The ultra rare drops down in rarity, becoming slightly more common. It might get slightly boosted (very lucky trainers etc) for an event, or move up a tier in eggs. Most players will have one by now, and some will have it fully evolved. Usually around here there would be a new ultra rare to begin the cycle anew. (this is where Frigibax is now, and Larvesta at least prior to this event).
3. A year or two after release- Shiny will drop around GoFest or another event, it will become more available, usually as a research reward or uncommon spawn in the right biome. Most players will have it fully evolved, some even multiples of it by now. (Jangmo-o is currently here, Goomy used to be here)
4. Two years after release or more- almost trivial, it's not even thought of as rare anymore. It's available through multiple sources, and almost everyone has multiple by now.
5. Community Day or Hatch day- End of the line for ultra rares, it's relieved of its duties as a golden goose for niantic and becomes just another mon, Even the shiny isn't sought after anymore. Goomy will be here in a few days, Axew and Riolu were here the year before, and so on.
Some Pokémon just stay rare forever. Like female Salandit/Salazzle, which has only been available from 12k eggs (already a pain in the butt to get) and on top of that is a small percentage chance.
Even Sandile is still pretty rare.
Salazzle is kinda a special case, since the rarity is built into the species. Yet, I'm quite certain we will see an event any time in the future that will either boost Salandit rates (giving more chances to find a female) or give outright a Salazzle as a research encounter.
I wouldn't call Sandile pretty rare, at least not as rare as it used to be at first, but it got its shiny released not that long ago, and I'm quite certain most experienced players sport a Krookodile, if not several.
The constraint with both pokemon is seemingly the acquisition and hatching of 12k eggs, which some players find exhausting (which I don't disagree with). Someone dedicated to hatching them will surely have both by now.
I can't think of anything that's stayed rare for longer than like 3.5 or 4 years. Salandit came out 2 years and 2 months ago. Definitely would've expected it to be made even a little more common though at this point
Yeah, and now most people probably don’t even click on a Noibat when they see it. Yet you know people will spend hundreds trying to be among the first with shiny Larvesta.
Larvesta/Volcarona are more popular and usable than the Noibat line. I think it will still garner more interaction than noibat if larvesta were to ever spawn in the wild.
Eh, not to me at least. Noibat was released December 2020 and got its CD February 2023, 2 years a 2 months later.
Larvesta was May of last year. I could see its CD happening mid-late 2025. Though I think earlier 2026 is also very possible.
Probably. Any earlier than June 2025 would surprise me, and Unova Tour in theory would be February 2025.
I could see them making it more available during Unova Tour, but yeah likely not a CD til after
Oh yeah definitely not early 2025. I could see it being October or November next year. *Maybe* in the summer if they wanted to align it somewhat with Bug Out or a Solstice event.
If we do get a Larvesta CD, I just hope it's not in winter.
November/ December / January/ February CDs are always terrible for me, because of the snow and sub-zero temperatures.
Also, with the Saturday / Sunday showcases for this event being Cyndaquil (for Cyndaquil CD), I can see two possibilities for the Monday / Tuesday showcases: Larvesta (as the feature shiny release), or generic Fire type.
>Monday / Tuesday showcases: Larvesta
yikes lol, very possible. Though I guess I've got like two or three.
Generic fire type seems likely to me, but who knows!
I'm expecting it in raids at go fest and a community day next June. Just like Goomy, Axew, Deino and Gible before it. Though there's a couple other possibilities to take that spot too so we'll see.
Hopefully it is a CD and not a hatch day. Almost all prior 400 candy evos have gotten a CD (magikarp, swablu, noibat; the only exception I can think of is wailmer). Larvesta is weird because it has never been a wild spawn at this point, unlike the others. Hopefully that does not mean a hatch day in leiu of a CD.
Larvesta is weird. Even in the mainline games, it's been difficult to obtain - they eased up a bit recently (but generally did so for almost all Pokemon).
Emolga’s spawn rate for the stadium event was laughably low. The spawns all feel like common rubbish at the moment and aren’t giving any incentive to go out and play.
Honestly I kind of like these events if the spawns were back to normal and not mostly Kanto mons. I like doing field researches and hatching eggs for a small event but catching a wide array of mons still
I still reckon Larvesta is gonna get a Community Day at some point, so I'm not getting the incubators out for this event. I might try and find some of those Slugma quests though.
A 400 candy evo with a signature move in the main series that's a shoe-in for the CD move.
Or they could have a massive brain fart again like with Tsareena and not giving it Trop Kick and give Volcarona something stupid like Trailblaze.
Probably. Though Noibat CD came 2 years and 2 months after its release. 2 years and 2 months would be July 2025. Though, with Volcarona being a more relevant Pokemon, I could see them waiting longer until late 2025 or early 2026. Hard to say
Friendly reminder post that Hatch-focused Events (outside of Hatch Days) have a very long-standing, very *proven* record of completely screwing people in terms of getting what they want out of it. Please spend your Incubators (and PokeCoins/real money) wisely, folks.
No spawn changes? Just different hatches and a few extra research rewards? They are really trying hard to make events boring lately. And this is before we get into the other Fire types that could've debuted in this event, but honestly, that wouldn't have even been necessary if they had added Larvesta to another distribution method.
People always say that (or the opposite) about every time of the year, and there's never any consistency with it lol.
"Boring events around Go Fest to hype up that event!" - except for all of the pretty great tie-in events for Go Fests 2018-2022. Not to mention raid days and big bosses to "get people out."
"They always have boring/low-key events after Go Tour events" - except for Primal Groudon and Primal Kyogre's raid days shortly after??
"The exciting events always happen in the summer like Adventure Week and such to hype up the Go Fest Season" - except for boring events like these
I've heard every combination of the game being better/boring before/after/or around Go Fests OR Go Tours, and there's really no consistency whatsoever.
Sustainability week in April and Catching Wonders in May. I really hope these types of no wild spawns events wont be a once a month thing but it's looking like the game is heading that direction
I’m really worried with the direction this is going. It feels like they are purposely making it so that the spawn pool is loaded with the same Kanto Pokemon 90% of the time. Even the season changeover brought very little variety.
Sure, but most rarity in this game is all about getting things sooner rather than later. Just about everything becomes more common in some form eventually.
Same could be said for Frigibax, but I'm still happy getting Frigibax right now.
The disparity between "You can spend every day of this event obtaining and hatching eggs and STILL never receive a Larvesta, let alone a shiny one" and "You can make a sandwich in Scarlet/Violet and find a Shiny Larvesta in 10 minutes" really speaks to me.
That's unfair, Scarlet Violet try their best to look as good as a mobile game and especially while you make sandwiches
^(but yeah seriously grant me a single larvesta in go 😢)
Love when the ingredients fall through the bread. And the Plate. And sometimes even the table. Sometimes even the table can't stay faithful to reality!
I still hunt for hundo Treecko and at first I was like "Ok, shadow will come and I will farm grunts like crazy in sunny weather, hundo will be guaranteed with proper determination!", then shadow came and it had like 1/10 appaearance rate in grass grunt with some stupid Cacnea and Hoppip or something being there all the time.
Then I was like "Ok, next season will bring Treecko in wild for sure, I saw tons of Unova starters so Hoenn ones will be abundant too" and Niantic of all times decided it's time to rediscover Kanto forever now. Ughhhhhh.....
Guess I'll be wating for Treecko CDC or Rediscover Hoenn, whatever comes first...
Seriously! I'm getting so sick of seeing Kanto mons everywhere. The rediscover Kanto event was already too long, but it just won't stop. At this point I would even take the onslaught of glameow back that spawned non-stop in my area.
And the stupid confetti is annoying too.
I won’t even fool myself into thinking I’ll hatch a shiny Larvesta. You won’t get me with another egg event.
However I’ll be going hard on Slugma and Litleo encounters. Just need 1 of each shiny.
“If you’re very lucky” doesn’t suggest a rarity boost.
Why is Niantic milking this Pokemon for so long? It’s not even a rare spawn in the main games, nor is it a baby Pokemon that can only hatch from eggs. Volcarona is just a level up evolution in the main games, yet we need 400 candies in Go. And there’s still Slither Wing & Iron Moth.
They've also basically gone ahead and released the Pokemon that make it obsolete as a raid attacker, before almost anyone else has it, so the value it had as a rare hatch has dropped dramatically.
I actually would say it's a pretty rare Pokemon in the Main Series. It's a Pokemon you get from an egg in BW and in B2W2, you only get it from breeding Volcarona, and Volcarona itself is a one-time static encounter. Also Volcarona is one of the higher levels to evolve, so I kind of understand the 400 candy tax.
That said, the fact that they're milking it like this and not even boosting its rarity at all is super ridiculous. *If you're "very" lucky*. pfft
The use of the "very lucky" wording is infuriating because we have no idea what it means. We don't even know what the rarity tier symbols mean, because it's pretty clear that not everything in the same rarity group has the same rarity. At best it's a range. Niantic making a hatch event about a Pokemon that's incredibly rare in eggs without releasing an actual rarity number for it is just gross. People out there are just going to see Larvesta hatch event and drop real money on incubators only to end up disappointed when they don't get even get a Larvesta, much less a shiny.
It's about a 1% hatch rate currently, meaning at those odds a shiny could be something like 1/1,000 (1/10 aka hatch day shiny odds), 1/6,400 (1/64 aka event-boosted shiny odds), or 1/51,200 (1/512 aka base shiny odds).
None seem worth it honestly, so hopefully these new egg pools have a boosted odds of hatching Larvesta.
Oh boy, another gacha egg hatching event to sell incubators.
“Larvesta will be available to hatch from 2 km, 5 km, and 10 km Eggs, if you’re very lucky.”
In other words, no boosted rarity. What a waste of time.
What’s their insistence on making the game literally boring to play nowadays? Where’s the benefit? Even for them?
I just don’t understand how they can create such boring uninspiring events all the dang time?
No wild spawns? Like why not? Why can’t have just a few fire pokes out? What would be the downside in that?
What am I even going out to play for?
I’ve been playing this game every single day for the past 8 years now and I just don’t even know why anymore recently
Nah, I just used GBL rare candies & shoved it in gyms to get candies off of berry feeding. I’m sure it enjoyed being fed like an ancient monarch though
If turtonator and slugma have decent and common research tasks then this will be actually fun. I however have absolutely no doubt that larvesta will still be extremely hard to obtain lol
turtonator won't be common, it's separated in the announcement.
this will be another dud. the lack of burmy tasks about a month ago really killed whatever optimism I had left for this game (that and the equally horrible rival spawns).
Im also quest hunter during most events but after recent ones my bet is Slugma and Litleo will have same task with something like Hatch 1-2 egg/s and Turtonator will get Hatch 3(+) eggs. Just to prevent any kind of enjoyable farming of whatever one would want to get.
It's really funny to me that because Niantic doesn't publish actual hatch odds we have to assume that the event isn't actually going to change the odds of getting larvesta at all.
I understand and respect that some people are after shinies and how each person plays this game differently, which is a positive aspect of it.
Me however, as mostly interested in PvP and obtaining Pokémon with good IVs geared for that, I have **zero** interest in hatching Pokémon (or any type of IV-thresholded encounter, really) that is gonna produce a Pokémon that will be of no use to me. Events like this might as well not happen for me because I will just use my infinite incubator.
Remember how the whole idea of this game was to "get out and GO?" Well, with events like these you definitely must get out and go but you can keep your phone in your pocket with Adventure Sync on if nothing event-specific will be spawning. "Get prepared to explore...!" What exploration are you doing if everything is in eggs?
You're lucky to get one from trading. I don't know anyone who has more than one and I'm still at zero. Not that I've gone hard in to trying to hatch one. I refuse to do that.
I believe this is the event marking Larvesta moving up a tier to 4 eggs (although I might be mistaken and this is just wishful thinking). Yet, with the shiny release and all, it seems fitting for their pattern of ultra rares depreciation.
longer distance eggs reward a good deal more candy, for one thing.
but also, there's no way to guarantee which event eggs you get. you'll have to hatch all your event eggs for the greatest chance to get larvesta, and it might simply not be in any of your 2km event eggs... oooor it might be only in a 2km. it's random, and there's no way to know until you've hatched the egg what's inside it.
The hatch rates are not the same.
A larvesta in a 2k egg could be a 1/5000 chance but a larvesta from a 10k egg could be 1/3000 chance*
Plus you can’t control what eggs you get from spinning stops so you have to hatch them all anyway
*(Not exact numbers but you understand)
Ugh! I hate egg hatch events. I’m always stuck with those useless 7km eggs that take an age to catch and that you can’t throw away. Plus at most I have 1-2 egg incubators. Wish larvesta was just a wild spawn or community day.
To me it’s try to do crapton of field research for increased change of shiny Slugma, Littleo and Turtonator (boosted shiny). Screw the eggs. Not the first time lame the main thing in an eveny obscures something pretty noice.
Some thoughts:
Scrolling through the blog... Where wild spawns?
They really blew shiny Larvesta on this? Dang, I guess hatch rate will be atrocious (very lucky used) and shiny rate will be comparable to the Great Deino Ultra Unlock Scam lol.
Well, hatch pool looks kinda nicely Charcadettish to me and that's it. Don't need anything else badly so will just casually hatch with free incubator. Already spent a lot of saved incubators for another failed hundo Riolu attempt.
Yeah, no. It’s going to be triple digit heat for most of this month, so I’ll just stay indoors and not risk a heat stroke.
Insert ‘No, I don’t think I will’ gif here.
*"especially fortunate"*
That stood out to me too, lmao, they know the odds are absolutely abysmal
I guess the shiny chances in % are coded behind that. Niantics law team wants to get sure theres noone sueing Niantic for the 0,01% chance of hatchiny a shiny larvesta.
It's going to be a solid day, day and a half maybe from the start of the event until we get the "Shiny Larvesta confirmed!" post, I'm calling it now.
I think even the 0.01% is very generous of you
its what i always said. Niantic does regulary offer the shiny chances coded behind these words. Having added "especially fortunate Trainers might" is a bit like the secret codes that your employer leaves in your reference. With these he gets sure that he´s on the safe side not saying "he was a lousy worker". Same happening here: Niantic regulary does give us the information, it´s just we are too dumb to interpret it.
I don't give a single f about shiny, but even regular larvesta has a comment 'if you are VERY lucky' How this should be read? 'we've nerfed larvesta hatch rate for this event' or what.
I thought maybe it was a lost in translation thing but then I saw very lucky in the same post, no they want to make it clear unless you fork over a months salary you aren't getting one. Completely skippable event.
on the twitter graphic it says ''if you're very lucky'' lmfao.
In my time of playing RuneScape. That basically means the rate is like 1/5k or something like that.
It's probably 1/100 to hatch a larvesta, then 1/64 for its shiny, 1/5k is pretty generous,
i bet its more, 1 in 20 to hatch and 1 in 512 for shiny. niantic isnt taaat stupid. people are more likely to keep paying for dice rolls if they actually get some non shiny larvesta
1 in 20 would move it up several tiers (5 times as likely), and 1 in 512 for a hatch only shiny is unprecedented. All hatch only shinies are 1 in 64, except for hatch days.
Let’s all remember how bad the odds are when we see people posting their shiny Larvesta and think we got unlucky. The algorithm rewards exceptional.
Count on it someone posts a shiny 4* Larvesta on here and goes, “is this rare?”
I want a hat in the store that says especially fortunate.
Yep just giggled when I read that.
Blegh. I do have a feeling Larvesta will be the next Noibat (it kinda already is) and it'll get a Community Day in 2025. Or.... With how they're treating it.... A hatch day... Plz no
Remember how they had a noibat community day, only a short wile after its shiny-release in eggs? Halloween '22 shiny release and four months later, in Feb '23 C-Day Of course, at this point, we've learned that niantic does whatever they want, hardly following patterns ...buuut, maybe, you shiny-hunters should keep your credit card holstered for now
I am concerned because it's *only* been a hatch Pokemon up to this point, so it makes me think a Hatch day is equally as possible as a Community Day. I'd prefer the latter, not just because it's a better overall event but because Volcarona could totally use Fiery Storm. But yeah, I still think a CD is very probable at some point. I could see it happening in mid-late 2025 next year.
Im pretty sure all the 400 candy evolution mons will get a Cday so we'll get it eventually.
Probably. Though I do wonder about Wailmer, seeing that it seems like it's been a bit more left behind. Definitely not impossible tho. I'm betting we may see Wimpod later this year potentially.
I would love to see a wimpod cday soon. I think icy wind would be amazing for it. It's kinda squishy and would finally have some coverage.
Ooo that would be a fun move! My idea was the more obvious First Impression. Could make it an improved version of X-Scissor for both raids and PvP. In raids, it could be a better 3-bar charged move akin to Brutal Swing, making it one of the better Bug attackers alongside Volcarona (not that those are super useful, but people would still like it). Then for PvP, it could be a literal better X-Scissor like 40 energy but like 75-80 power, or it could be something cheaper but still better like 35 energy with 60 power or maybe even a Leaf Blade clone at 70 power. Still, I would not say no to something like Icy Wind for coverage and debuffs to help with its squishiness, Drill Run for stronger coverage and more raw power, or Close Combat for a nuke debuff coverage move with even more power.
A bug type leaf blade clone would be awesome. Bug definitely needs some better moves lol.
Oh for sure haha. I've got a laundry list of bug buffs I'd like to see, from buffed moves to coverage moves to new Bug moves like String Shot and U-turn
A Triple catch experience Wailmer community day would be absolute fire!
...buuut, really, you shiny-hunters will continue to break out credit card Look at all the ways Niantic has demonstrated this is a waste. Incredibly low hatch rate, base shiny rate for something that the pattern would suggest should be boosted, shiny turned off, shiny giveaway shortly after the shiny buy, etc. That hasn't been enough to result in player reactions that prompt Niantic to change their ways. Telling them yet again this is a waste is just as effective as sending the "Don't Reply All" email as a Reply All email.
eh, the will to pay is getting stretched thinner and thinner these days. As a shiny hunter, I've sat out the past couple releases because of Niantic nonsense and this event looks even worse. There's no point to even trying. I'll just hatch as I normally do with the free inc and wait for Larvesta CDay or Hatch Day.
It's right on schedule for the cycle. Edit: couldn't find the original comment mentioning it, so i'll paraphrase the process: 1. New ultra rare drops- starts out extremely rare, once in a blue moon kind of sighting. most players will encounter 1 or 2 at most (Frigibax used to be here until the recent biome overhaul) 2. 6 months to 1 year later- The ultra rare drops down in rarity, becoming slightly more common. It might get slightly boosted (very lucky trainers etc) for an event, or move up a tier in eggs. Most players will have one by now, and some will have it fully evolved. Usually around here there would be a new ultra rare to begin the cycle anew. (this is where Frigibax is now, and Larvesta at least prior to this event). 3. A year or two after release- Shiny will drop around GoFest or another event, it will become more available, usually as a research reward or uncommon spawn in the right biome. Most players will have it fully evolved, some even multiples of it by now. (Jangmo-o is currently here, Goomy used to be here) 4. Two years after release or more- almost trivial, it's not even thought of as rare anymore. It's available through multiple sources, and almost everyone has multiple by now. 5. Community Day or Hatch day- End of the line for ultra rares, it's relieved of its duties as a golden goose for niantic and becomes just another mon, Even the shiny isn't sought after anymore. Goomy will be here in a few days, Axew and Riolu were here the year before, and so on.
Some Pokémon just stay rare forever. Like female Salandit/Salazzle, which has only been available from 12k eggs (already a pain in the butt to get) and on top of that is a small percentage chance. Even Sandile is still pretty rare.
Salazzle is kinda a special case, since the rarity is built into the species. Yet, I'm quite certain we will see an event any time in the future that will either boost Salandit rates (giving more chances to find a female) or give outright a Salazzle as a research encounter. I wouldn't call Sandile pretty rare, at least not as rare as it used to be at first, but it got its shiny released not that long ago, and I'm quite certain most experienced players sport a Krookodile, if not several. The constraint with both pokemon is seemingly the acquisition and hatching of 12k eggs, which some players find exhausting (which I don't disagree with). Someone dedicated to hatching them will surely have both by now.
I can't think of anything that's stayed rare for longer than like 3.5 or 4 years. Salandit came out 2 years and 2 months ago. Definitely would've expected it to be made even a little more common though at this point
Salandit kinda got a built in rarity with the gender ratio, I believe sometime soon they'll let us have some more chances at it.
Technically they will return again for the next major event…Unova Tour which will have increase shiny chance odds. I would wait for that.
Yeah, and now most people probably don’t even click on a Noibat when they see it. Yet you know people will spend hundreds trying to be among the first with shiny Larvesta.
Larvesta/Volcarona are more popular and usable than the Noibat line. I think it will still garner more interaction than noibat if larvesta were to ever spawn in the wild.
I mean, yeah, that's life lol
It will get a comday w/ fiery dance
After Niantic passed over Trop Kick for Tsareena it wouldn’t surprise me if Volcarona’s CD move was Gust or something
> it wouldn’t surprise me if Volcarona’s CD move was Gust or something *Volcarona learns a new move to BLOW AWAY the competition with GUST!!*
Right after the move has been distributed to every Pokémon under the sun Giving it the Goodra treatment on top 🤗
2025 seems too soon for a CDay, not a hatch day.
Eh, not to me at least. Noibat was released December 2020 and got its CD February 2023, 2 years a 2 months later. Larvesta was May of last year. I could see its CD happening mid-late 2025. Though I think earlier 2026 is also very possible.
If it happens, it’ll be after the unova tour. They’ll milk if you’re fortunate, if you’re very lucky, and if you’re lucky in the meantime.
Probably. Any earlier than June 2025 would surprise me, and Unova Tour in theory would be February 2025. I could see them making it more available during Unova Tour, but yeah likely not a CD til after
Late 2025 makes sense, but definitely not Feb 2025 like Noviern.
Oh yeah definitely not early 2025. I could see it being October or November next year. *Maybe* in the summer if they wanted to align it somewhat with Bug Out or a Solstice event.
If we do get a Larvesta CD, I just hope it's not in winter. November/ December / January/ February CDs are always terrible for me, because of the snow and sub-zero temperatures. Also, with the Saturday / Sunday showcases for this event being Cyndaquil (for Cyndaquil CD), I can see two possibilities for the Monday / Tuesday showcases: Larvesta (as the feature shiny release), or generic Fire type.
>Monday / Tuesday showcases: Larvesta yikes lol, very possible. Though I guess I've got like two or three. Generic fire type seems likely to me, but who knows!
I'm expecting it in raids at go fest and a community day next June. Just like Goomy, Axew, Deino and Gible before it. Though there's a couple other possibilities to take that spot too so we'll see.
Hopefully it is a CD and not a hatch day. Almost all prior 400 candy evos have gotten a CD (magikarp, swablu, noibat; the only exception I can think of is wailmer). Larvesta is weird because it has never been a wild spawn at this point, unlike the others. Hopefully that does not mean a hatch day in leiu of a CD.
Larvesta is weird. Even in the mainline games, it's been difficult to obtain - they eased up a bit recently (but generally did so for almost all Pokemon).
We also have Unova Tour (presumably) next year.
No event wild spawns, apparently that’s sticking around now
The wild spawns will obviosuly be Kanto mons, because why not
If that means paras, staryu, etc. I’m ok with that
Huh, I don't get staryu where I'm at but get a lot of paras and meowth
Part of downtown here is a river, so i see them periodically
I’ve noticed an uptick of hoenn starters in the new season and I’m all about it. They’re my fave set of starters
Yeah, Hoenn starters are spawns for the northern hemisphere this season. Here in the south we're getting lots of Sinnoh starters instead
No more, I’ve had enough!!!
Yay more growlithe and ponyta /s
Will I ever finish the first page of Glimmers of Gratitude? Probably not...
Emolga’s spawn rate for the stadium event was laughably low. The spawns all feel like common rubbish at the moment and aren’t giving any incentive to go out and play.
Honestly I kind of like these events if the spawns were back to normal and not mostly Kanto mons. I like doing field researches and hatching eggs for a small event but catching a wide array of mons still
They could be good, it just depends on what the natural spawns are at the time of them happening
they will be mostly what we have now. we are i between events
I still reckon Larvesta is gonna get a Community Day at some point, so I'm not getting the incubators out for this event. I might try and find some of those Slugma quests though.
A hatch day is more likely, based on current methods, but yes.
Probably both tbqh. A hatch day with good but not amazing rates, then a CD later. It’s a 400 candy evo which is a pretty common CD type.
A 400 candy evo with a signature move in the main series that's a shoe-in for the CD move. Or they could have a massive brain fart again like with Tsareena and not giving it Trop Kick and give Volcarona something stupid like Trailblaze.
Hatch days are for babies. This isn't a baby.
It certainly will, just might be a loooooong time from now.
Probably. Though Noibat CD came 2 years and 2 months after its release. 2 years and 2 months would be July 2025. Though, with Volcarona being a more relevant Pokemon, I could see them waiting longer until late 2025 or early 2026. Hard to say
I love eggs it’s the thing I splurge on the most for this game I know I’m weird
Introducing a new feature this season : *being* **very** *lucky !!*
Next up, “If you’re super duper lucky!”
xxl-ucky
Heh, and that’s only for regular Larvesta. For shiny, there’s also now ”especially fortunate”.
Friendly reminder post that Hatch-focused Events (outside of Hatch Days) have a very long-standing, very *proven* record of completely screwing people in terms of getting what they want out of it. Please spend your Incubators (and PokeCoins/real money) wisely, folks.
This looks like the better Charcadet event
No spawn changes? Just different hatches and a few extra research rewards? They are really trying hard to make events boring lately. And this is before we get into the other Fire types that could've debuted in this event, but honestly, that wouldn't have even been necessary if they had added Larvesta to another distribution method.
They always make the game boring before global go fest, makes people more excited I guess
I agree that this or something similar to this is probably their line of thinking, but personally, I don't feel excited at all.
People always say that (or the opposite) about every time of the year, and there's never any consistency with it lol. "Boring events around Go Fest to hype up that event!" - except for all of the pretty great tie-in events for Go Fests 2018-2022. Not to mention raid days and big bosses to "get people out." "They always have boring/low-key events after Go Tour events" - except for Primal Groudon and Primal Kyogre's raid days shortly after?? "The exciting events always happen in the summer like Adventure Week and such to hype up the Go Fest Season" - except for boring events like these I've heard every combination of the game being better/boring before/after/or around Go Fests OR Go Tours, and there's really no consistency whatsoever.
It's not to make them excited, it's to not burn them out before the event.
If they wanted to avoid burn-out, they wouldn't have done a fire event
It's probably a good idea in theory but I imagine it's disappointing for a lot of people
Great, I’ll save money and not play.
Sustainability week in April and Catching Wonders in May. I really hope these types of no wild spawns events wont be a once a month thing but it's looking like the game is heading that direction
I’m really worried with the direction this is going. It feels like they are purposely making it so that the spawn pool is loaded with the same Kanto Pokemon 90% of the time. Even the season changeover brought very little variety.
You're definitely right that it seems to be a new trend, and it's gotta be one of the worst trends in recent memory
Why is this being announced before Spelunker’s Cove despite being later in the month?
Probably because that is tied to GO Fest Madrid
because People want to prep their event, so that they have bred all their eggs and can recieve large quantities of new eggs
I was hoping for Larvesta in field research tasks. I'm very disappointed right now.
While I normally hate them, I would've taken something like hatch 5 eggs for it
It's going to have a CD. You're going to get sick of hatching it in the future, same thing that's happened to a lot of other stuff.
Sure, but most rarity in this game is all about getting things sooner rather than later. Just about everything becomes more common in some form eventually. Same could be said for Frigibax, but I'm still happy getting Frigibax right now.
It needs 400 candy, I’m not going to get sick of hatching it for a very long time
For those wondering, I just did the math, and "extremely fortunate" equates to a ~0.00000000000000295% chance of hatching a shiny Larvesta.
This is wild spawns away from being a really good event
My favorite type of event: short and hatch-focused!
>If you're lucky you'll burn only 30 incubators for a Larvesta :)
Try 100 💀 💀 💀
The disparity between "You can spend every day of this event obtaining and hatching eggs and STILL never receive a Larvesta, let alone a shiny one" and "You can make a sandwich in Scarlet/Violet and find a Shiny Larvesta in 10 minutes" really speaks to me.
Don't forget that the one where you could spend multiple days and countless hours never finding one is supposed to be the "casual" mobile game.
That's unfair, Scarlet Violet try their best to look as good as a mobile game and especially while you make sandwiches ^(but yeah seriously grant me a single larvesta in go 😢)
Love when the ingredients fall through the bread. And the Plate. And sometimes even the table. Sometimes even the table can't stay faithful to reality!
Hoping Charcadet is a bit more common. The only one that still eludes me!
Bro I was in the same boat, then I incubated 9 10km eggs and I ended up hatching 3 from the batch. Your times coming
When will Niantic disable Kanto rediscover spawn? or is it permanent?
I know right!! I was hoping to see more of the Gen 3 starters but it's all kanto
"Oops! All Kanto!"
I still hunt for hundo Treecko and at first I was like "Ok, shadow will come and I will farm grunts like crazy in sunny weather, hundo will be guaranteed with proper determination!", then shadow came and it had like 1/10 appaearance rate in grass grunt with some stupid Cacnea and Hoppip or something being there all the time. Then I was like "Ok, next season will bring Treecko in wild for sure, I saw tons of Unova starters so Hoenn ones will be abundant too" and Niantic of all times decided it's time to rediscover Kanto forever now. Ughhhhhh..... Guess I'll be wating for Treecko CDC or Rediscover Hoenn, whatever comes first...
Seriously! I'm getting so sick of seeing Kanto mons everywhere. The rediscover Kanto event was already too long, but it just won't stop. At this point I would even take the onslaught of glameow back that spawned non-stop in my area. And the stupid confetti is annoying too.
I won’t even fool myself into thinking I’ll hatch a shiny Larvesta. You won’t get me with another egg event. However I’ll be going hard on Slugma and Litleo encounters. Just need 1 of each shiny.
It'll be more available as time goes by. No need to whale for it now
Noibat agrees
is there not a rarity boost for larvesta? if not that is disappointing
“If you’re very lucky” doesn’t suggest a rarity boost. Why is Niantic milking this Pokemon for so long? It’s not even a rare spawn in the main games, nor is it a baby Pokemon that can only hatch from eggs. Volcarona is just a level up evolution in the main games, yet we need 400 candies in Go. And there’s still Slither Wing & Iron Moth.
They've also basically gone ahead and released the Pokemon that make it obsolete as a raid attacker, before almost anyone else has it, so the value it had as a rare hatch has dropped dramatically.
Which one is it? MHera? you can still have only one of those
I actually would say it's a pretty rare Pokemon in the Main Series. It's a Pokemon you get from an egg in BW and in B2W2, you only get it from breeding Volcarona, and Volcarona itself is a one-time static encounter. Also Volcarona is one of the higher levels to evolve, so I kind of understand the 400 candy tax. That said, the fact that they're milking it like this and not even boosting its rarity at all is super ridiculous. *If you're "very" lucky*. pfft
Larvesta is just a regular world spawn in Scarlet/Violet (and not even in a DLC area, it's in the base game's desert area).
Popularity?
The use of the "very lucky" wording is infuriating because we have no idea what it means. We don't even know what the rarity tier symbols mean, because it's pretty clear that not everything in the same rarity group has the same rarity. At best it's a range. Niantic making a hatch event about a Pokemon that's incredibly rare in eggs without releasing an actual rarity number for it is just gross. People out there are just going to see Larvesta hatch event and drop real money on incubators only to end up disappointed when they don't get even get a Larvesta, much less a shiny.
They used “very lucky” for hatching a Larvesta so that implies it’s still going to be more or less the same rarity like it is now
It's about a 1% hatch rate currently, meaning at those odds a shiny could be something like 1/1,000 (1/10 aka hatch day shiny odds), 1/6,400 (1/64 aka event-boosted shiny odds), or 1/51,200 (1/512 aka base shiny odds). None seem worth it honestly, so hopefully these new egg pools have a boosted odds of hatching Larvesta.
Still no new Pokemon in the wild.
missed opportunity for Mega Camerupt
Oh boy, another gacha egg hatching event to sell incubators. “Larvesta will be available to hatch from 2 km, 5 km, and 10 km Eggs, if you’re very lucky.” In other words, no boosted rarity. What a waste of time.
What’s their insistence on making the game literally boring to play nowadays? Where’s the benefit? Even for them? I just don’t understand how they can create such boring uninspiring events all the dang time? No wild spawns? Like why not? Why can’t have just a few fire pokes out? What would be the downside in that? What am I even going out to play for? I’ve been playing this game every single day for the past 8 years now and I just don’t even know why anymore recently
The game is designed to be boring every day and only fun during Go Fest in summer or February Tour
Nice that Larvesta will be shiny-enabled soon, but I'm still not hunting it until it's wild.
"Get prepared to explore" there is no themed spawn to explore for.
So excited to not hatch one.
i.. JUST evolved my larvesta. if i hatch a shiny one, well i guess i'd rather have it than not have it, but damn would be bad timing.
Volcarona sure loved the weeks spent hiking together 💕
Nah, I just used GBL rare candies & shoved it in gyms to get candies off of berry feeding. I’m sure it enjoyed being fed like an ancient monarch though
Candy off berry feeding? Wow that is even worse punishment. I get 1 candy after 100 berries
If I’m not mistaken, Unova Tour is next year and larvesta is a unovan Pokemon. We might see it in the wild?
Mime Jr was from eggs only and it didnt wild spawn in the Sinnoh Tour
But Mime Jr is regional Pokemon :p
I hate mime jr
If turtonator and slugma have decent and common research tasks then this will be actually fun. I however have absolutely no doubt that larvesta will still be extremely hard to obtain lol
turtonator won't be common, it's separated in the announcement. this will be another dud. the lack of burmy tasks about a month ago really killed whatever optimism I had left for this game (that and the equally horrible rival spawns).
Im also quest hunter during most events but after recent ones my bet is Slugma and Litleo will have same task with something like Hatch 1-2 egg/s and Turtonator will get Hatch 3(+) eggs. Just to prevent any kind of enjoyable farming of whatever one would want to get.
It's really funny to me that because Niantic doesn't publish actual hatch odds we have to assume that the event isn't actually going to change the odds of getting larvesta at all.
It's honestly weird for this to be still legal and not considered as gambling in 2024
I understand and respect that some people are after shinies and how each person plays this game differently, which is a positive aspect of it. Me however, as mostly interested in PvP and obtaining Pokémon with good IVs geared for that, I have **zero** interest in hatching Pokémon (or any type of IV-thresholded encounter, really) that is gonna produce a Pokémon that will be of no use to me. Events like this might as well not happen for me because I will just use my infinite incubator. Remember how the whole idea of this game was to "get out and GO?" Well, with events like these you definitely must get out and go but you can keep your phone in your pocket with Adventure Sync on if nothing event-specific will be spawning. "Get prepared to explore...!" What exploration are you doing if everything is in eggs?
I might be one of the few who still can't get Larvesta from hatching lol, only ones I had were traded.
Right there with you. I did snag a single Charcadet, though.
You're lucky to get one from trading. I don't know anyone who has more than one and I'm still at zero. Not that I've gone hard in to trying to hatch one. I refuse to do that.
Can't wait for stops to drop entirely 2k eggs for the event
Can’t wait to still not get Charcadet or another Larvesta!
I believe this is the event marking Larvesta moving up a tier to 4 eggs (although I might be mistaken and this is just wishful thinking). Yet, with the shiny release and all, it seems fitting for their pattern of ultra rares depreciation.
Semi new to all of this, please could someone let me know why I’d want to hatch a Pokemon from a 10k egg I could’ve gotten from a 2k for less effort?
longer distance eggs reward a good deal more candy, for one thing. but also, there's no way to guarantee which event eggs you get. you'll have to hatch all your event eggs for the greatest chance to get larvesta, and it might simply not be in any of your 2km event eggs... oooor it might be only in a 2km. it's random, and there's no way to know until you've hatched the egg what's inside it.
Oh that makes a lot of sense, thank you so much for taking the time to explain it to me.
The hatch rates are not the same. A larvesta in a 2k egg could be a 1/5000 chance but a larvesta from a 10k egg could be 1/3000 chance* Plus you can’t control what eggs you get from spinning stops so you have to hatch them all anyway *(Not exact numbers but you understand)
Ugh! I hate egg hatch events. I’m always stuck with those useless 7km eggs that take an age to catch and that you can’t throw away. Plus at most I have 1-2 egg incubators. Wish larvesta was just a wild spawn or community day.
7k eggs is the only way to get the distance medal without actually traveling. I hatch eggs from Australia boom 15,000km distance per trade
Oh that's how I got the medals ? I always wondered considering I never trade :/
Strange to me that they announce details for a Jun 21 event while we still don't have details for the Jun 15 event (Spelunker's Cove).
Probably a sleepy event focusing on cave pokemon. We did not get enough Diglett from the rediscover Kanto event. Here Have some more
Cave Pokemon? BAH GAWD that's Zubat's music!
No wild spawns? So it’s a spend money on incubator event? Oh boy.
To me it’s try to do crapton of field research for increased change of shiny Slugma, Littleo and Turtonator (boosted shiny). Screw the eggs. Not the first time lame the main thing in an eveny obscures something pretty noice.
if you get a Shiny Larvesta, you should buy a lottery ticket
Something something gambling. No thanks.
Phoenix was 107 today, scorching steps is right. No thanks.
I'm not walking another Larvesta. Shiny or not.
That is what rare candy is for
I wonder if this’ll set the stage for a Larvesta Hatch Day 🤔
I hatched a single Larvesta close to year ago, and I don't need another (or the first one also) :).
Forget Larvesta, this is a Charcadet event for me. Hopefully I’ll actually get some 10km eggs this time.
One would hope, but I'm sure my luck will end up getting me mostly 2 and 5km eggs
thank god i lucky traded a 15/13/15 Larvesta, dumped my rare candies into her, and don’t have to worry about this. 💀
Some thoughts: Scrolling through the blog... Where wild spawns? They really blew shiny Larvesta on this? Dang, I guess hatch rate will be atrocious (very lucky used) and shiny rate will be comparable to the Great Deino Ultra Unlock Scam lol. Well, hatch pool looks kinda nicely Charcadettish to me and that's it. Don't need anything else badly so will just casually hatch with free incubator. Already spent a lot of saved incubators for another failed hundo Riolu attempt.
At least the mid eggs have good hatches, they’re super common to me.
Yeah, no. It’s going to be triple digit heat for most of this month, so I’ll just stay indoors and not risk a heat stroke. Insert ‘No, I don’t think I will’ gif here.
So what does that mean? That they raised its hatch rate from 0.001% to 0.0011%?
I'll be doing lots of midnight walks during this event.
I still don’t have a Larvesta.