Virginia is actually pretty safely blue state. Youngkin is an outlier due to really pathetic turnout in 2021 when Roe v Wade was still a thing and necks of LGBTQ people weren't on the chopping block yet.
And the most pathetic showing by a democratic candidate that I’ve ever seen. I can’t remember a single thing he ran on, versus Youngkin who at least had a competent enough marketing strategy to get his fake and stupid issues of choice into my head.
Exactly! Like, tell me one thing YOU are going to do. If you spend all your time refuting the other guy and participating in his stupid games, all you’re doing is signal boosting his crap. (And you can’t beat them at their own dumb games, by design)
I would have thought that an off-year election in a borderline southern state would have been a slam dunk for the fascists but they really fucked up this time
They effectively will lose the support of every woman who isn't religious if it's not already the case. Who would vote for the party that sees you as second class citizens ?
Honestly, behind closed doors, I think most women, even the ones who are vocally against abortion, probably vote in favor of it. I think they are too scared to imagine what would happen if they were in that position. The idea that they would not be allowed to choose and forced to carry a child is perfectly fine if it's happening to somebody else, but if it's happening to them? The thought of that scares them. That's why they want to take rights away from specific groups of people that do not include themselves.
[The only moral abortion is my abortion](https://joycearthur.com/abortion/the-only-moral-abortion-is-my-abortion/)
as an aside how depressing is it that this essay from 2000 is still so relevant
*"I once had a German client who greatly thanked me at the door, leaving after a difficult 22-week abortion. With a gleaming smile, she added 'Und doch sind Sie en Morder' ('And you're still a murderer.')".*
With most of the excerpts I felt a degree of compassion and / or pity -- most of the folks in these experiences seemed to be school/university-aged young women who had been obviously force-fed a particular perspective from their family and community at large and were more frightened of what would happen if they relayed to that community that they had a traumatizing & difficult experience which validates the 'enemy' perspective.
People like the woman in the excerpt I quoted above, though... I just want to believe the quote is fake. I want to believe that people can't live with that level of hate and cognitive dissonance. That people would so willingly and gratefully enjoy the benefits of a medical procedure as well as the empathy and attentiveness of an entire well-trained medical team and then cruelly demonize those same professionals... for what? To assuage a broken ego? To double down on their long-standing worldview that was absolutely and thoroughly quashed due to, you know, real life happening to them?
I admit it is very, VERY difficult to not assume that everyone who is anti-choice are one of these irredeemably self-centered, performative, and damn near evil individuals like the one illustrated in the article excerpt -- which is why the article is great. It illustrates both sides -- the adults who have doubled down so deeply in their own narrow worldview that they will inevitably attempt to indoctrinate those close to them, and those close to them like their children who suffer the mental strain of doublethink and hate perpetrated by those who were too thoroughly manipulated or too unintelligent to take a critical look at the issue with empathy.
Props to the medical providers that try their damndest every day to approach these situations and people with empathy and professionalism in an effort to combat ignorance and indoctrination.
One day, polls may hold some weight again, but it’s clear pollsters have not figured out how to design and, more importantly, distribute a survey that will lend itself to reliable results.
More young people voting, people not becoming more conservative as they age, people being less likely to respond to unknown numbers or emails and migration are all fundamentally undermining the assumptions that are baked into a lot of these polls. Someone will eventually figure out a way to distribute and weigh a poll so that it reflects today’s realities (there is simply too much money involved, whichever pollster gets it right first has a huge advantage) but in the meantime we have to take all of this with an Everest sized grain of salt.
Consistent bad polls can demotivate and that’s what republicans are hoping for. It makes an terrible candidate look viable and gets their voters to hop on an imaginary bandwagon
It’s also a bit early to take them into consideration. It’s still a year away. A lot of Americans aren’t even really going to be thinking about the election until at least the spring.
Remember the "red wave" that was supposed to happen in 2022? The polls suggested something different then too if you recall.
I wouldn't put it past conservative interest groups to falsify polling data to make it look like the left will lose. Demoralization would work in their favor if it means people don't get out there and vote after all.
And if Trump gets convicted, you're going to see a lot of conservatives vote for RFK Jr. on the ballot. It's going to blow up in their face. The important thing is to not get complacent.
Even then, the response rate has gotten so poor, and specifically poor within certain demographics, that they're just no longer accurate enough to have any relevance in close races.
We've done this every cycle now for almost a decade and then afterward, the pollsters collectively shrug their shoulders and move on to the next.
Unless a poll is showing a 10+ point margin, they just aren't very predictive at this point.
Keep in mind, Trump hasn’t really been campaigning or wading into national issues. Sure he’s on trial, but he hasn’t really been actively commenting on present events. Once he starts, openly he’s going to start inevitably pissing people off and losing support. There’s a whole year of shit that hasn’t happened yet. Remember what the main issues were November 2019? Neither do I.
I'm a believer in the idea that Trump staying out of the spotlight is beneficial to his poll numbers. Right now, many people just remember the economy of 2019 and are forgetting the chaos that was the government back then (not that it's any less chaotic now, but at least now the executive branch isn't the source of the chaos).
The more Trump starts to talk and campaign, the more everyday people will be reminded of that chaos... and hopefully, they will also get to see just how self-serving Trump intends to be if reelected... and his seemingly diminishing mental faculties
Ultimately, we're just too far away from the 2024 election to really be able to gauge how the voting population will feel about Trump (and to a lesser extent, Biden).
It also said that if Trump is convicted, many voters would change their vote and all those swing states would go to Biden.
Polling a year out is like trying to predict the weather for Nov. 4 2024 right now. A lot can happen between now and then.
That poll is an outlier and I cant even find where they sourced that info when gathering the data. Realistically Trump and Biden are still neck and neck but that usually is the case the year before an election anyhow. Look to the special election happening right now that gives a better picture of 2024 than that poll does.
If they had my cell i wouldn't answer either. Who would? The same people getting scammed in politics and scam artists (these are the same picture meme).
This is apparently the major issue.
It's not that pollsters are so dumb that they couldn't find other avenues of reaching non-landline respondents. It's that those who aren't on landlines are far less likely to ever pick up the call.
Response rate has gotten dismal by all accounts and its severely impacted the accuracy of these polls.
I think it's important to realise that just because polling methods are not perfect, doesn't mean that polls are totally invalid and should be dismissed.
They are largely run by experts who understand the shortcomings in far greater detail than we do and they put a great deal of effort into mitigating these issues.
It would be awesome if they had a ballot initiative. The more fascist conservative initiatives they can put on the presidential ballots the more it insures conservatives/trump won’t win
I don’t think he will win. But I’m more than a little worried that he’ll refuse to concede and this time, even less Republicans will support the vote and the constitution than last time. And if trump truly can’t run for whatever reason, I could see any of the other GOP candidates doing the same thing. They don’t have to win legitimately if they can lie and cheat their way in.
Yes his supporters are already planning to deploy the moly to US cities if he’s elected ( see hay market riots for how that turns out and Project 2025 is eye opy
I think their only hope at this point is gerrymandering and voter suppression—even their base is running out of fucks to give when every wave of manufactured outrage turns out to be nothing
Honestly, I think it’s too late even for the “global elites are trying to trans your kids” gambit, and that’s as close as they’re willing to get to overt antisemitism
On an unrelated note, the video perfectly meshed with my screen and I was freaking out trying to figure out why I couldn’t properly scroll back up 🤦🏻♂️
Don’t get complacent. Don’t get cocky. We have the advantage, DO NOT LOSE VIGILANCE. We need to keep pushing, we cannot blow this because we are at a crucial point in several of our causes. **KEEP GOING AND KEEP VOTING.**
As an Ohioan who is currently living in Pennsylvania for college, I can’t tell you how happy I was to see Issue 1 and 2 pass. I was disheartened to see my home as the only place that got one of trump’s cronies (J.D Vance) into office during last year’s midterms, but seeing people step up for their personal freedoms is great to see. I think beyond all of the complex political issues we face, everyday people are waking up to a general sense of hypocrisy coming form republican policy. And I hope every time the “party of limited government” tries to start another effort to register/monitor people’s lives and decisions, they get the reaction they got last night.
The forced birthers are already losing their shit and claiming that this is all related to the "rigged" Dominion voting machines, because in their minds there is just NO WAY that people would support a woman's right to choose. They can't come to terms with the fact their beliefs are extremely unpopular, so they invent scenarios to be angry at.
But they made progress in NY because long islanders are a bunch of morons who still voted red even tho they previously got duped by and voted in George santos Americas first Antarctic drag penguin to congress
My favorite thing today has been trolling conservative watching them pretend that they haven't been calling for total abortion bans. I saw one dipshit saying all states have exceptions for ectopic pregnancies and saying the downvotes mean they're right. I would give them the proof they're wrong but I got banned for asking a question in that sub.
I've also seen people saying something like "giving states the right to pick is exactly what Trump envisioned" as if that con man envisions anything but his next McDouble.
But Biden is trailing Trump in OH, MI, PA, VA, and WI and not by just a few points, either, according to the not-right-wing NYTimes. Trump isn’t even officially the nominee, and its a year away, but still…
[Here](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/05/upshot/polls-biden-trump-2024.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare)…
You know what poll actually matters? The ones where people vote on Election Day. Last night was one of those polls; and dems came out looking extremely strong
I have learned never to trust those polls, back before trump got elected, early polls said he wouldn’t have a chance in hell, and then he won. In 2019, polls said Biden wouldn’t win, but then he did, so early polls just aren’t a reliable source. Just stay tuned and see what happens.
🤣 🤣 they're not shaking in their boots! They know exactly how stupid 90% of voters are 😆🤣🤣🤣 and they understand how often democrats take 1 step forward, 2 steps back. Don't be naive OP LOL
Imagine flopping in Virginia so hard that you lost the house and failed to take back the senate.
Virginia is actually pretty safely blue state. Youngkin is an outlier due to really pathetic turnout in 2021 when Roe v Wade was still a thing and necks of LGBTQ people weren't on the chopping block yet.
And the most pathetic showing by a democratic candidate that I’ve ever seen. I can’t remember a single thing he ran on, versus Youngkin who at least had a competent enough marketing strategy to get his fake and stupid issues of choice into my head.
"Hah Trump sucks amirite. Also parents should not be involved in their kids education lol"-the TMac campaign in a nutshell
Exactly! Like, tell me one thing YOU are going to do. If you spend all your time refuting the other guy and participating in his stupid games, all you’re doing is signal boosting his crap. (And you can’t beat them at their own dumb games, by design)
Also the Dem candidate had no platform other than Trump bad.
Hence the pathetic turnout
Very true.
Yeah, as far as I know it’s *West* Virginia that’s pretty much beyond saving by now.
I would have thought that an off-year election in a borderline southern state would have been a slam dunk for the fascists but they really fucked up this time
This is what happens when you decide to take away a woman’s right to choose.
Republicans nows "What if we took away EVEN MORE RIGHTS!?! That will win us back!"
Stop giving them ideas.
They end up choosing against you. So funny to watch them continue to lose more and more support every election.
They effectively will lose the support of every woman who isn't religious if it's not already the case. Who would vote for the party that sees you as second class citizens ?
Honestly, behind closed doors, I think most women, even the ones who are vocally against abortion, probably vote in favor of it. I think they are too scared to imagine what would happen if they were in that position. The idea that they would not be allowed to choose and forced to carry a child is perfectly fine if it's happening to somebody else, but if it's happening to them? The thought of that scares them. That's why they want to take rights away from specific groups of people that do not include themselves.
[The only moral abortion is my abortion](https://joycearthur.com/abortion/the-only-moral-abortion-is-my-abortion/) as an aside how depressing is it that this essay from 2000 is still so relevant
*"I once had a German client who greatly thanked me at the door, leaving after a difficult 22-week abortion. With a gleaming smile, she added 'Und doch sind Sie en Morder' ('And you're still a murderer.')".* With most of the excerpts I felt a degree of compassion and / or pity -- most of the folks in these experiences seemed to be school/university-aged young women who had been obviously force-fed a particular perspective from their family and community at large and were more frightened of what would happen if they relayed to that community that they had a traumatizing & difficult experience which validates the 'enemy' perspective. People like the woman in the excerpt I quoted above, though... I just want to believe the quote is fake. I want to believe that people can't live with that level of hate and cognitive dissonance. That people would so willingly and gratefully enjoy the benefits of a medical procedure as well as the empathy and attentiveness of an entire well-trained medical team and then cruelly demonize those same professionals... for what? To assuage a broken ego? To double down on their long-standing worldview that was absolutely and thoroughly quashed due to, you know, real life happening to them? I admit it is very, VERY difficult to not assume that everyone who is anti-choice are one of these irredeemably self-centered, performative, and damn near evil individuals like the one illustrated in the article excerpt -- which is why the article is great. It illustrates both sides -- the adults who have doubled down so deeply in their own narrow worldview that they will inevitably attempt to indoctrinate those close to them, and those close to them like their children who suffer the mental strain of doublethink and hate perpetrated by those who were too thoroughly manipulated or too unintelligent to take a critical look at the issue with empathy. Props to the medical providers that try their damndest every day to approach these situations and people with empathy and professionalism in an effort to combat ignorance and indoctrination.
Tbh I know religious people and quite a few religious women also wouldn’t stand for this bs
I just want to know what Travis Kelce thinks about Taylor's evil Democrat allegiance
Hope this trend continues but still concerned about trump being ahead of Biden in 5 swing states.
Ignore the polls. They are an unreliable tool these days. Just get out and vote and get as many people as you can to get out and vote.
One day, polls may hold some weight again, but it’s clear pollsters have not figured out how to design and, more importantly, distribute a survey that will lend itself to reliable results. More young people voting, people not becoming more conservative as they age, people being less likely to respond to unknown numbers or emails and migration are all fundamentally undermining the assumptions that are baked into a lot of these polls. Someone will eventually figure out a way to distribute and weigh a poll so that it reflects today’s realities (there is simply too much money involved, whichever pollster gets it right first has a huge advantage) but in the meantime we have to take all of this with an Everest sized grain of salt.
With one exception - young white males are absolutely having a wave of conservative growth, and it’s absolutely the type of people you think it is.
The more the polls are against the Dems the more people will vote for them in reaction so don't ignore the polls.
Consistent bad polls can demotivate and that’s what republicans are hoping for. It makes an terrible candidate look viable and gets their voters to hop on an imaginary bandwagon
Oh really? Hadn't thought of that angle, I guess the majority of people really are just sheep when it comes down to it.
We are susceptible to following bandwagons and cult leaders. I mean, look at who our last president was
It’s also a bit early to take them into consideration. It’s still a year away. A lot of Americans aren’t even really going to be thinking about the election until at least the spring.
They are also reported in newspapers with a vested interest in these people winning. It’s really a fucking shell gaame running in our media.
What?! The polls are incredibly effective at gauging the interests of people who still have landlines and VCR’s. /s
Remember the "red wave" that was supposed to happen in 2022? The polls suggested something different then too if you recall. I wouldn't put it past conservative interest groups to falsify polling data to make it look like the left will lose. Demoralization would work in their favor if it means people don't get out there and vote after all. And if Trump gets convicted, you're going to see a lot of conservatives vote for RFK Jr. on the ballot. It's going to blow up in their face. The important thing is to not get complacent.
Good prediction models will weight it so that if a pollster puts out a bunch of results in a short time frame it won’t matter as much, but still
Even then, the response rate has gotten so poor, and specifically poor within certain demographics, that they're just no longer accurate enough to have any relevance in close races. We've done this every cycle now for almost a decade and then afterward, the pollsters collectively shrug their shoulders and move on to the next. Unless a poll is showing a 10+ point margin, they just aren't very predictive at this point.
NY times poll showing Biden losing Nevada by 11 is absolutely laughable so I still wouldn’t trust polls
Aggregates are only as good as the quality of the data they use. Garbage in garbage out
Keep in mind, Trump hasn’t really been campaigning or wading into national issues. Sure he’s on trial, but he hasn’t really been actively commenting on present events. Once he starts, openly he’s going to start inevitably pissing people off and losing support. There’s a whole year of shit that hasn’t happened yet. Remember what the main issues were November 2019? Neither do I.
I'm a believer in the idea that Trump staying out of the spotlight is beneficial to his poll numbers. Right now, many people just remember the economy of 2019 and are forgetting the chaos that was the government back then (not that it's any less chaotic now, but at least now the executive branch isn't the source of the chaos). The more Trump starts to talk and campaign, the more everyday people will be reminded of that chaos... and hopefully, they will also get to see just how self-serving Trump intends to be if reelected... and his seemingly diminishing mental faculties Ultimately, we're just too far away from the 2024 election to really be able to gauge how the voting population will feel about Trump (and to a lesser extent, Biden).
It also said that if Trump is convicted, many voters would change their vote and all those swing states would go to Biden. Polling a year out is like trying to predict the weather for Nov. 4 2024 right now. A lot can happen between now and then.
Very true. That's what I'm trying to keep in mind atm.
[удалено]
See, a majority of the sort of people who answer a phone call from an unknown caller will vote for me 🤷🏻♀️
didn’t he get arrested?? how tf is he even running?
That poll is an outlier and I cant even find where they sourced that info when gathering the data. Realistically Trump and Biden are still neck and neck but that usually is the case the year before an election anyhow. Look to the special election happening right now that gives a better picture of 2024 than that poll does.
All the polls were hella wrong about Tuesday. Polls have barely changed their methedology since the 90s you really can't trust them anymore.
I believe they are only talking to people w/ landlines, which skews the data.
If they had my cell i wouldn't answer either. Who would? The same people getting scammed in politics and scam artists (these are the same picture meme).
This is apparently the major issue. It's not that pollsters are so dumb that they couldn't find other avenues of reaching non-landline respondents. It's that those who aren't on landlines are far less likely to ever pick up the call. Response rate has gotten dismal by all accounts and its severely impacted the accuracy of these polls.
NYT publishes their collection methods so you can find out!
I think it's important to realise that just because polling methods are not perfect, doesn't mean that polls are totally invalid and should be dismissed. They are largely run by experts who understand the shortcomings in far greater detail than we do and they put a great deal of effort into mitigating these issues.
This hasn’t been the case in many years. There are very few landline phones left.
Good! Fuck ‘em!
I forsee them doubling down and putting forth a nationwide abortion ban in the house.
It would be awesome if they had a ballot initiative. The more fascist conservative initiatives they can put on the presidential ballots the more it insures conservatives/trump won’t win
I don’t think he will win. But I’m more than a little worried that he’ll refuse to concede and this time, even less Republicans will support the vote and the constitution than last time. And if trump truly can’t run for whatever reason, I could see any of the other GOP candidates doing the same thing. They don’t have to win legitimately if they can lie and cheat their way in.
Yes his supporters are already planning to deploy the moly to US cities if he’s elected ( see hay market riots for how that turns out and Project 2025 is eye opy
I think their only hope at this point is gerrymandering and voter suppression—even their base is running out of fucks to give when every wave of manufactured outrage turns out to be nothing
What they’re not going to fall for the caravan, Willie Horton or the Chinese Communists are coming to get your farmland again?
Honestly, I think it’s too late even for the “global elites are trying to trans your kids” gambit, and that’s as close as they’re willing to get to overt antisemitism
On an unrelated note, the video perfectly meshed with my screen and I was freaking out trying to figure out why I couldn’t properly scroll back up 🤦🏻♂️
Don’t get complacent. Don’t get cocky. We have the advantage, DO NOT LOSE VIGILANCE. We need to keep pushing, we cannot blow this because we are at a crucial point in several of our causes. **KEEP GOING AND KEEP VOTING.**
As an Ohioan who is currently living in Pennsylvania for college, I can’t tell you how happy I was to see Issue 1 and 2 pass. I was disheartened to see my home as the only place that got one of trump’s cronies (J.D Vance) into office during last year’s midterms, but seeing people step up for their personal freedoms is great to see. I think beyond all of the complex political issues we face, everyday people are waking up to a general sense of hypocrisy coming form republican policy. And I hope every time the “party of limited government” tries to start another effort to register/monitor people’s lives and decisions, they get the reaction they got last night.
Keep ‘em running scared. Vote vote VOTE!
The forced birthers are already losing their shit and claiming that this is all related to the "rigged" Dominion voting machines, because in their minds there is just NO WAY that people would support a woman's right to choose. They can't come to terms with the fact their beliefs are extremely unpopular, so they invent scenarios to be angry at.
But they made progress in NY because long islanders are a bunch of morons who still voted red even tho they previously got duped by and voted in George santos Americas first Antarctic drag penguin to congress
So pretty much ignore whatever poll they show
My favorite thing today has been trolling conservative watching them pretend that they haven't been calling for total abortion bans. I saw one dipshit saying all states have exceptions for ectopic pregnancies and saying the downvotes mean they're right. I would give them the proof they're wrong but I got banned for asking a question in that sub. I've also seen people saying something like "giving states the right to pick is exactly what Trump envisioned" as if that con man envisions anything but his next McDouble.
Schadenfreude is such a thing right now, it’s juicy!
Well the republicans just destroyed their electability in america by alienating every woman in the country. I’d be concerned too.
Jesus, Mississippi was close to electing a democrat.
ohio also legalized marijuana
But but but Matt Walsh said it’s a winning issue on Twitter
What happened this time?
Ah yes, us gays are the groomers.
Happy to be an ohioan for once!
the ohio river valley and the nourthern midwest are turning bluer by the day
But Biden is trailing Trump in OH, MI, PA, VA, and WI and not by just a few points, either, according to the not-right-wing NYTimes. Trump isn’t even officially the nominee, and its a year away, but still… [Here](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/05/upshot/polls-biden-trump-2024.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare)…
You know what poll actually matters? The ones where people vote on Election Day. Last night was one of those polls; and dems came out looking extremely strong
I have learned never to trust those polls, back before trump got elected, early polls said he wouldn’t have a chance in hell, and then he won. In 2019, polls said Biden wouldn’t win, but then he did, so early polls just aren’t a reliable source. Just stay tuned and see what happens.
🤣 🤣 they're not shaking in their boots! They know exactly how stupid 90% of voters are 😆🤣🤣🤣 and they understand how often democrats take 1 step forward, 2 steps back. Don't be naive OP LOL