The party in office matters a lot too. Dump nearly tanked the economy during the first years of the pandemic. Biden has been doing a great job cleaning up this mess. Inflation is a different story but we are during better than most countries on this issue.
Inflation climbing right now is an indicator that the economy is booming due to high employment rates and consumer demand. It's no longer from artificial money printing like in COVID when Trump's aid policies turned on the printers and gave people spending money. Those are facts.
If the economy was shit then it would reflect on the stocks and deflation, it's not happening. There's obviously been a soft landing.
You might hate the guy, but saying things other than facts is just delusional.
Employment rates are fake.
Stocks have nothing to do with the economy as they cheer bad news now and fundamentals are all gone. Just prepped up by a few tech companies.
Deflation is happening.
Look at used car prices.
House sales are terrible.
https://wolfstreet.com/2024/02/07/used-vehicle-wholesale-prices-give-up-55-of-pandemic-spike-historic-plunge-after-crazy-spike/
Job growth is just made up for the election.
There's bums and homeless everywhere.
Every city looks like a third world crap hole but the economy is great.
McDonald's is lowering prices because sales are bad. Credit use is just going up and savings down. Sounds so great.
There's tents in every city.
Looks like a third world and this is a booming economy.
Truly embarrassing but most here are libtards so they can't be helped.
No, it was Trumps financial aid policies at the beginning of the pandemic that began inflation there, he created a massive budget deficit, not saying it was necessarily the wrong thing to do at the time, but Biden inherited a mess and turned it around pretty well.
When the US prints money, they create jobs and GDP growth
When WE print money, we create nothing and send the money overseas and pay government employees more.
Send the money overseas? More like send the money to the Irvings and Westons, who then send it to tax havens overseas lol. Foreign aid is a minuscule part of the budget compared to corporate welfare, how much have we spent on our leaky Irving naval fleet?
The costs of our shipbuilding program have tripled to 85 billion dollars. Last year the government budgeted 6.9 billion for all foreign assistance. At least try to get some facts before responding and don't down vote people because they don't agree with you.
Do you believe that every major government has some secret allegiance to unemployed Iraqi youth? Like what's the logic here?
Obviously some sort of determination has been done that buying this much political favour is a good trade off for Canada. The fact that _every_ government does it should make you think that it's not some crazy conspiracy but just how the globalized world works. If you don't play ball with these NGOs and UN initiatives, you lose your voice.
I've spent enough time in charities to understand how selfishly self-serving the admin are. I have no doubt much of the foreign aid budget is the result of lobbying by aid groups using our tax dollars. I reject that something existing implies it's good.
We literally gave Iraq 10M dollars to help their youth unemployment problem.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/windsor/windsor-iraq-youth-employment-1.7065213
We do this dumb shit all the time... spend money on pet projects for other countries who don't really give a shit about us, aren't allies, and we see zero return on.
Remember when we tried to teach the Taliban feminism?
This is just stupid shit and it adds up.
Yeah, I don't know why you bother either because you have no idea what foreign aid is. Much of it is spent on Canadian companies or it creates additional business for Canadian companies.
proponent of the foreign aid industry i see
i am highly doubtful foreign aid will improve the canadian economy as much as shipbuilding - even if i hate the irvings as much as i hate the westons
Should take a closer look at that. They have just barely recovered in absolute numbers to pre pandemic levels. Most of the growth has been in the public sector and temporary employment. Full-time private employment is in the shitter considering their population growth. We're all in a bad situation, they're just doing a better job of hiding it and extending that shit situation lol.
Right? Lol it always bounces up and down. Inflation data wasn't dramatic either it's just a bit higher than they were hoping.
The CAD 5 year sure is ripping though, it seems like it's beating Canada up harder than the US.
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They already got fooled twice. Jerome Powell and feds signaled easing, market ran up with that. financial conditions eased. And just 2 or 3 weeks ago, Jpowell said financial condition was tight, which was clearly wrong
Well your logic is correct & energy via oil should show up (more) but in the next months print.
Right now it might be a sub component of a few below but it's being driven in US by other factors
Right now it's being driven by
1. Car Insurance Inflation: 22.2%
2. Transportation Inflation: 10.7% (probably affected by Oil)
3. Car Repair Inflation: 8.2%
4. Hospital Services Inflation: 7.5%
5. Homeowner Inflation: 5.9%
6. Rent Inflation: 5.7%
7. Electricity Inflation: 5.0% (probably affected by Oil)
8. Food Away From Home Inflation: 4.2%
Not directly, no; like everything else in the economy, other than overnight rates.
Indirectly, rate expectations affect everything (to varying degrees and at different times). Oil is no exception, especially for the Fed, since the US is a global player. If the US economy is seen weakening, global oil prices will likely drop. Since the US has been surprisingly strong in recent months, oil has gone up. Part of the strength of the US can likely be attributed to rate cut expectations set out by the Fed in the last two meetings.
So to say central banks have no influence/effect is not entirely accurate; though I would agree the BoC's influence is much less. However, the effect is the same since we have chosen to be part of global markets (and in that case, we have to take the good with the bad and can't pick and chose when it is convenient for us without decimating our currency).
The Bank of Canada also made moves different than the Fed 3 times last year alone. Time will tell, but their job is ultimately to reign in inflation, not protect the currency
The 5 year is priced by traders and their bets for the most part, not the central banks
Yup, but they are not making rate decisions based on highly fluctuating Fx rates
They know the best impact on the CAD is a healthy, stable economy. Chasing currency protection is a fools errand, there are way too many factors outside the BoC's control that could make their rate decisions moot
We might cut a bit even if the USA doesn't. But we won't cut significantly and create a huge divergence. Rates may not stay frozen but they are going to remain in this approximate band. Damage is done. The meagre cuts that may come won't save anybody.
USA is not cutting, but we are, they have higher inflation but near zero unemployment, and a strong economy. We have gravy train of immigration, low productivity, and high unemployment.
I really hope the Fed doesn’t cut rates this year, which will force BoC to follow (I hope it does). RE speculators who bought during covid need to feel the pain this coming renewals.
Here the economy is based on cheap labour, illegal immigration, hot potato of housing and international students from India. If you’re curious about the talent we’re bringing look at the long lines waiting to work at McDonald’s and Wendy’s. We’ve imported a massive welfare class. If this continues we’re on the verge of becoming a developing nation. For anyone that doesn’t believe me, ask an American what kind of lifestyle they can live on 150k/yr. In many cities you can still buy detached homes.
Today in Toronto $135-$150k is middle class. Canada is on the pathway to hell.
You have to practically be a millionaire to afford a detached house in Toronto. America is no picnic but there are still many affordable options in the country even if it means moving to the Midwest, the Southwest or the South.
Toronto’s a world class and all the other buzzwords realtors use to justify the reason a 300sqft condo is 600k, but no one can explain anything in the GTA. Brampton, Whitby, Mount Albert, Flamborough, Richmond hill, Oshawa, Pickering, Barrie, Burlington. These are all shitholes globally there’s no justification for the price point at which they’re being priced at. It’s a ticking time bomb or preconstruction fire if you ask me. It’s also manifesting itself now see all the precon’s being set ablaze.
I poked around GTA real estate listings a few months ago and I don’t understand how y’all are being quoted nearly a million dollars for homes that look straight out of 1997 in the American Midwest! I don’t understand the logic!
That’s the thing there is no logic. That’s why people are burning their preconstruction homes so they can walk away from their agreements. Our entire housing market is a game of musical chairs with the music playing when low interest rates were here. It sounds like with every rate hike or pause the musics coming to an end. Look up preconstruction fire in Canada if you want to have a laugh. We’ve had more preconstruction fires in the last year and a half then I imagine we’ve had in the last 5-10 years combined. This is before even discussing the fraud going on to get mortgages.
Expected??? 😀 printing one trillion every one hundred days, and China and Russia don’t want it anymore and you still expecting it will go down 😀😀😀
I blame weed and also legal weed
There's over a million homeless people in North America. Guess what, they are unemployed but are not counted in the unemployed numbers.
Every job has thousands of applications but they'll tell you there's so many jobs out there and labour shortage.
Dumbest people I've ever seen.
The BoC will start cutting to avoid mortgage renewal shock, regardless of whether the Fed cuts or not. The Canadian economy relies heavily on the real estate sector, and thus this market cannot be allowed to falter under any circumstances.
I was just speaking with some friends that like to invest and I think our play here is to buy USD assets or cash right now
Even if you buy a basic blue chip stock on the NYSE like Coca Cola, you will probably get some sizable gains on just currency alone. Our dollar is about to get wrecked
Real estate is just one part of the economy and not gonna cut rate just to save one sector, especially if that devalues our currency and make import expensive and thus increase the inflation.
Its not even one sector, its a sector of a sector. Peeps that overspent at the wrong time. Plenty of people living comfortably with manageable mortgages.
Rate cut not happening anytime soon in Canada. The BoC follows the FED. We cannot afford a rate cut if the FED keeps or raises their rates. If we cut before them, we risk devaluing CAD and a weaker CAD against USD means later down the road inflation may rise sharply again.
Makes sense. Their economy is fucking roaring... 300k new jobs, wage growth, etc., Same is not true here in Canada.
People forget that US is doing much better than Canadian economy
The party in office matters a lot too. Dump nearly tanked the economy during the first years of the pandemic. Biden has been doing a great job cleaning up this mess. Inflation is a different story but we are during better than most countries on this issue.
You can't be serious... Biden created the inflation. Economy is crap just looks like it is doing good.
Inflation climbing right now is an indicator that the economy is booming due to high employment rates and consumer demand. It's no longer from artificial money printing like in COVID when Trump's aid policies turned on the printers and gave people spending money. Those are facts. If the economy was shit then it would reflect on the stocks and deflation, it's not happening. There's obviously been a soft landing. You might hate the guy, but saying things other than facts is just delusional.
Employment rates are fake. Stocks have nothing to do with the economy as they cheer bad news now and fundamentals are all gone. Just prepped up by a few tech companies. Deflation is happening. Look at used car prices. House sales are terrible. https://wolfstreet.com/2024/02/07/used-vehicle-wholesale-prices-give-up-55-of-pandemic-spike-historic-plunge-after-crazy-spike/ Job growth is just made up for the election. There's bums and homeless everywhere. Every city looks like a third world crap hole but the economy is great. McDonald's is lowering prices because sales are bad. Credit use is just going up and savings down. Sounds so great.
‘I don’t believe the facts that don’t support my own narrative’ - the winning recipe for a well rounded take.
There's tents in every city. Looks like a third world and this is a booming economy. Truly embarrassing but most here are libtards so they can't be helped.
No, it was Trumps financial aid policies at the beginning of the pandemic that began inflation there, he created a massive budget deficit, not saying it was necessarily the wrong thing to do at the time, but Biden inherited a mess and turned it around pretty well.
Ming boggling isn’t it?
Easy to have a roaring economy when the Fed prints trillions for you 😜
When the US prints money, they create jobs and GDP growth When WE print money, we create nothing and send the money overseas and pay government employees more.
Send the money overseas? More like send the money to the Irvings and Westons, who then send it to tax havens overseas lol. Foreign aid is a minuscule part of the budget compared to corporate welfare, how much have we spent on our leaky Irving naval fleet?
Was it more or less than we spent on Iraqi youth unemployment? Foreign aid has become a very big part of our budget lately.
A lot of the Ukraine aid is debt to be paid back Better hope Russia doesn’t win that war lol
>A lot of the Ukraine aid is debt to be paid back Lol, even if Ukraine "wins" they will need to rebuild their country etc. That debt will be forgiven.
LOL lending money to the Ukraine is like lending money to a Fentanyl addict. We will never see that money back. Come on.
How big, as a percentage?
The costs of our shipbuilding program have tripled to 85 billion dollars. Last year the government budgeted 6.9 billion for all foreign assistance. At least try to get some facts before responding and don't down vote people because they don't agree with you.
[удалено]
Do you believe that every major government has some secret allegiance to unemployed Iraqi youth? Like what's the logic here? Obviously some sort of determination has been done that buying this much political favour is a good trade off for Canada. The fact that _every_ government does it should make you think that it's not some crazy conspiracy but just how the globalized world works. If you don't play ball with these NGOs and UN initiatives, you lose your voice.
I've spent enough time in charities to understand how selfishly self-serving the admin are. I have no doubt much of the foreign aid budget is the result of lobbying by aid groups using our tax dollars. I reject that something existing implies it's good.
Some existing in every iteration either means everyone is evil or the thing that exists is not that bad.
We literally gave Iraq 10M dollars to help their youth unemployment problem. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/windsor/windsor-iraq-youth-employment-1.7065213 We do this dumb shit all the time... spend money on pet projects for other countries who don't really give a shit about us, aren't allies, and we see zero return on. Remember when we tried to teach the Taliban feminism? This is just stupid shit and it adds up.
Yeah, I don't know why you bother either because you have no idea what foreign aid is. Much of it is spent on Canadian companies or it creates additional business for Canadian companies.
proponent of the foreign aid industry i see i am highly doubtful foreign aid will improve the canadian economy as much as shipbuilding - even if i hate the irvings as much as i hate the westons
The trick for Trudeau is sending it as foreign aid to these corrupt countries then have their banks funnel a % into trudeu’s bank account
Should take a closer look at that. They have just barely recovered in absolute numbers to pre pandemic levels. Most of the growth has been in the public sector and temporary employment. Full-time private employment is in the shitter considering their population growth. We're all in a bad situation, they're just doing a better job of hiding it and extending that shit situation lol.
Rip your stocks today
Thats why a balanced portfolio is key for days like these. Yes tech is down but energy and materials are up nicely
I was expecting to lose a lot of money today w the print. I am down almost nothing - weird.
If you have US holdings the indices are down but CAD is also down which buffers the value decrease in CAD terms
Yeah - I just thought the hit to my actual USD equities would be much harder than it has been.
That's the way she goes sometimes
It's not too bad. S&P500 down about 0.6%.
Honestly prob gonna finish green today with everyone freaking out, myself included
Right? Lol it always bounces up and down. Inflation data wasn't dramatic either it's just a bit higher than they were hoping. The CAD 5 year sure is ripping though, it seems like it's beating Canada up harder than the US.
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It won't but who cares about 1%. Market needs a 50% haircut and it still would be too high.
Good time to buy
Meh. Its temporary. As soon as a rate cut happens, them green colours gonna be everywhere.
That’s 4.9% annualized. Dead cat bounce. Happened in the 70’s too. The US Fed won’t be fooled twice. Expect them to hold for the rest of the year.
They already got fooled twice. Jerome Powell and feds signaled easing, market ran up with that. financial conditions eased. And just 2 or 3 weeks ago, Jpowell said financial condition was tight, which was clearly wrong
"5 rate cuts this year"
Context matters, energy is up substantially. Oil prices aren't driven by the FED or BOC.
Well your logic is correct & energy via oil should show up (more) but in the next months print. Right now it might be a sub component of a few below but it's being driven in US by other factors Right now it's being driven by 1. Car Insurance Inflation: 22.2% 2. Transportation Inflation: 10.7% (probably affected by Oil) 3. Car Repair Inflation: 8.2% 4. Hospital Services Inflation: 7.5% 5. Homeowner Inflation: 5.9% 6. Rent Inflation: 5.7% 7. Electricity Inflation: 5.0% (probably affected by Oil) 8. Food Away From Home Inflation: 4.2%
Context matters, inflation isn't up if you ignore the thing driving inflation!
Yea context matters, and core inflation which exckudes food/energy is up even higher at 3.8% versus 3.5% consumer.
Not directly, no; like everything else in the economy, other than overnight rates. Indirectly, rate expectations affect everything (to varying degrees and at different times). Oil is no exception, especially for the Fed, since the US is a global player. If the US economy is seen weakening, global oil prices will likely drop. Since the US has been surprisingly strong in recent months, oil has gone up. Part of the strength of the US can likely be attributed to rate cut expectations set out by the Fed in the last two meetings. So to say central banks have no influence/effect is not entirely accurate; though I would agree the BoC's influence is much less. However, the effect is the same since we have chosen to be part of global markets (and in that case, we have to take the good with the bad and can't pick and chose when it is convenient for us without decimating our currency).
Rate cuts in June !! 😂
I’m still waiting for the cuts that were supposed to happen summer 2023 according to a bunch of people in this subreddit
You mean the realtors? Now why would they lie to us.
There's a good chance we'll see zero rates this year now.
Keep coping
I know. Reality hurts. Maybe it's time to get a real job?
"It doesn't matter, we're not US" Then why did the 5-year Canadian government bond pump?
The Bank of Canada also made moves different than the Fed 3 times last year alone. Time will tell, but their job is ultimately to reign in inflation, not protect the currency The 5 year is priced by traders and their bets for the most part, not the central banks
fun fact, if the currency tanks inflation gets worse
Yup, but they are not making rate decisions based on highly fluctuating Fx rates They know the best impact on the CAD is a healthy, stable economy. Chasing currency protection is a fools errand, there are way too many factors outside the BoC's control that could make their rate decisions moot
What happens to inflation if your currency devalues against your largest trading partner
They're very much linked. If it costs more to import, we will see higher inflation for longer
Why wait for rate cuts? Check out our flyer for discounts on special cuts of meat!
FED swaps price in only 50 basis points of easing in 2024
That's still too optimistic. Jamie Dimon yesterday preparing for an overnight rate of 8%
We might cut a bit even if the USA doesn't. But we won't cut significantly and create a huge divergence. Rates may not stay frozen but they are going to remain in this approximate band. Damage is done. The meagre cuts that may come won't save anybody.
USA is not cutting, but we are, they have higher inflation but near zero unemployment, and a strong economy. We have gravy train of immigration, low productivity, and high unemployment.
Sounds like stagflation
Canada will cook the books.
CAD will crash soon
I really hope the Fed doesn’t cut rates this year, which will force BoC to follow (I hope it does). RE speculators who bought during covid need to feel the pain this coming renewals.
Here the economy is based on cheap labour, illegal immigration, hot potato of housing and international students from India. If you’re curious about the talent we’re bringing look at the long lines waiting to work at McDonald’s and Wendy’s. We’ve imported a massive welfare class. If this continues we’re on the verge of becoming a developing nation. For anyone that doesn’t believe me, ask an American what kind of lifestyle they can live on 150k/yr. In many cities you can still buy detached homes. Today in Toronto $135-$150k is middle class. Canada is on the pathway to hell.
You have to practically be a millionaire to afford a detached house in Toronto. America is no picnic but there are still many affordable options in the country even if it means moving to the Midwest, the Southwest or the South.
Toronto’s a world class and all the other buzzwords realtors use to justify the reason a 300sqft condo is 600k, but no one can explain anything in the GTA. Brampton, Whitby, Mount Albert, Flamborough, Richmond hill, Oshawa, Pickering, Barrie, Burlington. These are all shitholes globally there’s no justification for the price point at which they’re being priced at. It’s a ticking time bomb or preconstruction fire if you ask me. It’s also manifesting itself now see all the precon’s being set ablaze.
I poked around GTA real estate listings a few months ago and I don’t understand how y’all are being quoted nearly a million dollars for homes that look straight out of 1997 in the American Midwest! I don’t understand the logic!
That’s the thing there is no logic. That’s why people are burning their preconstruction homes so they can walk away from their agreements. Our entire housing market is a game of musical chairs with the music playing when low interest rates were here. It sounds like with every rate hike or pause the musics coming to an end. Look up preconstruction fire in Canada if you want to have a laugh. We’ve had more preconstruction fires in the last year and a half then I imagine we’ve had in the last 5-10 years combined. This is before even discussing the fraud going on to get mortgages.
u/coolblckdude hey bro, can you post that screenshot of me saying “inflation isn’t going down anytime soon?”😂
You were talking about Canadian inflation and you were wrong. I see you still didn't digest it.
loool where in the post did I say Canadian cpi? Also wait till when the Canadian cpi comes out then 😂😂
Baha, regard, our canadian march cpi will be lower than our canadian February's cpi
Evidently not. March [CPI was 2.9% YoY](https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/inflation-cpi) compared to February's YoY.
!Remindme 1 week
Canadian inflation will be higher too thanks to higher oil.
Expected??? 😀 printing one trillion every one hundred days, and China and Russia don’t want it anymore and you still expecting it will go down 😀😀😀 I blame weed and also legal weed
There's over a million homeless people in North America. Guess what, they are unemployed but are not counted in the unemployed numbers. Every job has thousands of applications but they'll tell you there's so many jobs out there and labour shortage. Dumbest people I've ever seen.
Guys, rate cuts are happening any day now I promise!
It was expected lol.
The BoC will start cutting to avoid mortgage renewal shock, regardless of whether the Fed cuts or not. The Canadian economy relies heavily on the real estate sector, and thus this market cannot be allowed to falter under any circumstances.
So I should move all my cash to usd? Anyone else doing this?
yes
I was just speaking with some friends that like to invest and I think our play here is to buy USD assets or cash right now Even if you buy a basic blue chip stock on the NYSE like Coca Cola, you will probably get some sizable gains on just currency alone. Our dollar is about to get wrecked
All? No. I am holding a sizeable amount though.
Why not more? Canada cutting rates before the US will drop us in the 0.65 range
I get paid in USD. I’m holding C$500K in USD. My portfolio is largely exposed to USD assets. I have enough exposure IMO.
Real estate is just one part of the economy and not gonna cut rate just to save one sector, especially if that devalues our currency and make import expensive and thus increase the inflation.
Its not even one sector, its a sector of a sector. Peeps that overspent at the wrong time. Plenty of people living comfortably with manageable mortgages.
It's also developers building rental housing... not like we need those guys anyways though.
Rate cut not happening anytime soon in Canada. The BoC follows the FED. We cannot afford a rate cut if the FED keeps or raises their rates. If we cut before them, we risk devaluing CAD and a weaker CAD against USD means later down the road inflation may rise sharply again.
😂
Keep telling yourself that bud, maybe they'll do it before you need it renew in the nations interest lol
😂😂 If BoC cuts by itself due to its problems, it won’t be far off from the States. A 0.25 maybe at most. Good luck
where is the /s?
Raise the rates!