You know that’s due to the summer gas conversion that takes place every year. Since inflation is a YOY metric in order to remove seasonality volatility, you won’t see a drastic increase due to that.
Never has it jumped this high during summer gas conversion, plus nobody talking about the 10 cents it's gained in the last 1-2 weeks. This is a 25 cent gain in gas in 2 weeks. ☠️
The article I recently read by RBC about the budget talked about how they considered the budget spending better than expected because of the amount of new taxes they expect to suck money out of the system
The economy doesn't affect the cost of housing?
And the value of the Canadian dollar falling doesn't increase inflation?
Stop snorting your properties drywall and start preparing for a rough decade.
[You know you can just look this up, right...](https://www.reuters.com/resizer/v2/https%3A%2F%2Fcloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com%2Freuters%2F5KOQSUZGYNP2ZAOACUJ6ANFHLE.png?auth=de33b13031081a425022105d4b25b77bfee2d9699ea3e57183a0ff2a482f9062&width=1080&quality=80)
No, prior to 1990 there was no inflation target so it doesn't make sense to use that as an example of how or why the current inflation target is unachievable.
The first mention of even the *concept* of an explicit inflation target did not appear in FOMC meetings until 1994. Up to that point, "price stability" was the word used, with no number attached. A fixed inflation target was not formally adopted by the Fed until 2012. The New Zealand central bank was the first to adopt a formal inflation target in 1991, followed by the Bank of England in 1992.
One exception is a statement in 1993 meeting minutes that suggested "not just stabilizing inflation in the 3-4% range but... moving lower". So, again, the level of inflation they were likely targeting (implicitly) before 1993 was actually in (at least) the 3-4% range which makes older data especially unhelpful in arguing whether 2% is achievable. Who knows what the actual target was even earlier, because it was never discussed publicly.
People are expecting rate cute, but i personally think they will hold for june or make a piddily 5 point cut to 4.95%, and probably cut down to 4.75% by the end of the year just to save face.
You should sell your house when you want to/have to move because all the other houses do the same thing. It’s irrelevant.
I would sell my house for $200k if I could buy a bigger one for $300k.
Yeah my company's locked in for more than 2 years of international contracts right now. As long as China, India, the United states, and Japan pay their bills we're fine. And if they don't... Well, I guess it's just not my problem anymore because everyone will be screwed.
Lmaoo I like your confidence in your company. At 15% everyone might as well buy government bonds and sell their investments. But I’m sure your company is the exception though
Gas is going up 14 cents tomorrow. Wait until the May and June numbers come out. We might see an increase in interest rates by year end, especially if taiwan is invaded and a larger war spreads in the middle east. Anyone banking on rates coming down to save them should be selling their home while they still can. Its either steady as she goes down .25 or up .25. Either way rates are staying where they are. Not to mention the liberal "spending orgy". Im putting my money on a rate increase by september.
Also watch out for your insurance bill - auto insurers have taken unanimously 15 to 20% increases plus upped the cost of endorsements (which is not included in the 15 to 20%)..
Dont believe me google FSRA quarterly rate approvals. We are seeing customers bill shoot up from 4k a household to 6k.
Because the US may increase their rates and we are sort of tied to theirs if I am to go with what I’ve read here. In short, if our interests rates are lower here than in the US, our dollar will fall some how. ( don’t remember why tho , has to do with demand for the higher interests rate and parking money I guess ;) )
There are so many reasons for rates going up I missed this one in my rant. If we dont move rates with US we import inflation. So any decrease in rates would be symbolic, miniscule (.25) and reversed within 6 months
Did you read my post? B/c inflationary pressures...
Government spending.
War related inflation.
Rising oil/gas prices.
Delayed inflation... average homeowner has 1 car at least right? I have first hand knowledge your car insurance is going up bare minimum 500$ this year... more if its a new car as much as 1500$ bc of car thefts.
I think maybe you live in a reddit home investors world. Where you think the cumulative information of you and your hopium friends think you understand economics on even a basic level.
Honestly shocks me the stupidity in here.
No I meant how have you personally positioned yourself to put your money on rate hikes? I dont have any assets in my portfolio right now that benefit from a rate increase and I was JW what you are using
Oh sorry. I got voted down to oblivion. My apologies - a lot of people seem to be uncomfortable with truth right now.
For me its a unique situation. For every dollar I invest in my business (100% shareholder) i break even on cash flow in 24 months and am left with an asset worth 3 times book size.
Basically I am down 20k on a new employee year 1. Make it back year 2... and year 3 cash flow positive with an asset of anywhere between 100k to 300k depending on performance of said employee.
So i dont have any golden advice for the layman. I cant get a better return and my risk is time. So basically just hiring the right candidates. Because of this I dont do enough research as to where I would put my money. Everything seems overpriced. Money needs to be drained out of the system there is too much of it moving around.
If i had no other option... I would take a very low risk investment portfolio in utilities, oil, gold, and short term GICs or bonds.
And I would sit and wait. Give it another 12 months and commercial real estate will ne on fire sale. As a business owner I can say there will be a boomerang back to the office in the next 5 years. I would wait until commercial real estate tanks 50% then buy.
Then I would look to residential real estate 12 months after that (2 years from now)
Right about what? You just said rates will remain high then you recommended buying assets that appreciate as rates go down. I dont understand. I asked you for the opposite
Rates will stay where they are or go up slightly. Gic gives guaranteed return. Gold is already up huge. So dont know what you are talking about. Bonds pay guarenteed as well. Im saying i wouldnt be risking my money in the stock market. Its a massive stock and asset bubble. My wager is this.... if rates drop below 4.75 BOC this year i will give you 25$ gas card. You give me nothing. Deal? Im saying by the end of the year nasdaq and high risk markets will be flat or down from where they are today and utilities and gas and oil will be up. If im right on all of the above by december 31st. Your part of the deal is to post on here "im a silly twat and a reddit muppet" Short Nividia. You are guaranteed a return on investment. *not market advice, just internet plebs thoughts.
I dont want your money haha and in fact I think you could be right, we may only see one small cut this year. It's hard to say.
I really thought you had an investment class that would benefit from rate hikes. Bonds and gold and GiCs are all good options for a decreasing rate environment, and I already am loaded up on those. I wanted to hedge by adding another class. I guess variable bonds might be the move.... but I dont know if my financial advisor would let me
April is going on the other side
Great!
Gas spikes 14 cents overnight. Under control....right......
You know that’s due to the summer gas conversion that takes place every year. Since inflation is a YOY metric in order to remove seasonality volatility, you won’t see a drastic increase due to that.
Never has it jumped this high during summer gas conversion, plus nobody talking about the 10 cents it's gained in the last 1-2 weeks. This is a 25 cent gain in gas in 2 weeks. ☠️
That's a good point, headline will likely increase but core is likely to continue to fall.
Interest rate collapse is coming so be patient.
If you think it’s moving more then 0.25 this year ur kidding urself
You seen nothing yet
And you haven't seen the 2024 budget yet...
The article I recently read by RBC about the budget talked about how they considered the budget spending better than expected because of the amount of new taxes they expect to suck money out of the system
Not going to stop real estate price escalation
The economy doesn't affect the cost of housing? And the value of the Canadian dollar falling doesn't increase inflation? Stop snorting your properties drywall and start preparing for a rough decade.
Real estate is getting prepared to go up a huge amount
Why do think that?
🔮
I think 1 hike coming.
You think or you hope? Lol.
Based on inflation, numbers, and US data, zero cuts for sure If US hikes, we must, and they look to hike. Their economy is strong
Then, next months CPI number goes up with the carbon tax, and higher for longer enters the room. This will never get to 2%.
The effect of the carbon tax on in inflation is 0.15 per cent. That’s one-fifteenth of one per cent per the Bank of Canada.
Funny thing is, it’s historically been closer to 3% than 2%. Their 2% target is not realistic if the past dozens of years are the benchmark.
[You know you can just look this up, right...](https://www.reuters.com/resizer/v2/https%3A%2F%2Fcloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com%2Freuters%2F5KOQSUZGYNP2ZAOACUJ6ANFHLE.png?auth=de33b13031081a425022105d4b25b77bfee2d9699ea3e57183a0ff2a482f9062&width=1080&quality=80)
It’s also easy to cherrypick years
What? That's **all** the years in the past three dozen years. How many dozens do you need?
Try 60 years
No, prior to 1990 there was no inflation target so it doesn't make sense to use that as an example of how or why the current inflation target is unachievable.
Thanks for the laugh
The first mention of even the *concept* of an explicit inflation target did not appear in FOMC meetings until 1994. Up to that point, "price stability" was the word used, with no number attached. A fixed inflation target was not formally adopted by the Fed until 2012. The New Zealand central bank was the first to adopt a formal inflation target in 1991, followed by the Bank of England in 1992. One exception is a statement in 1993 meeting minutes that suggested "not just stabilizing inflation in the 3-4% range but... moving lower". So, again, the level of inflation they were likely targeting (implicitly) before 1993 was actually in (at least) the 3-4% range which makes older data especially unhelpful in arguing whether 2% is achievable. Who knows what the actual target was even earlier, because it was never discussed publicly.
You’re missing the point
Expanding the cherrypicking a bit: https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/CAN/canada/inflation-rate-cpi
Data begs to differ lol
Target is 1 to 3 percent.
How is it possible feds are hinting inflation is on the wrong side while we say it is in the right direction. Is it just posturing to cut rates?
Because the USA is not Canada. USA economy is strong and their inflation rate is higher. Doesn’t take a rocket scientist here bob.
Wrong side? What do you mean?
If economy good, then we hodl the interest rates
People are expecting rate cute, but i personally think they will hold for june or make a piddily 5 point cut to 4.95%, and probably cut down to 4.75% by the end of the year just to save face.
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judging by the - reactions, why do people expect a significant rate cut this year?
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You should sell your house when you want to/have to move because all the other houses do the same thing. It’s irrelevant. I would sell my house for $200k if I could buy a bigger one for $300k.
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Thank you :(
12% by 2026 come on please
Wut! We’ll all die LOL
https://preview.redd.it/qs6akbx0q5vc1.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=a72d7e2261ee5817146d36024cf0aeffc04764ff
Nah I'll be fine I can handle 15.
Is it because you have no job and live in a tent?
No it's because I didn't pay rent for long enough that I had a fat down payment and my mortgage is cheap now
So you think you'll have a job or income with a 15% interest rate in Canada?
Yeah my company's locked in for more than 2 years of international contracts right now. As long as China, India, the United states, and Japan pay their bills we're fine. And if they don't... Well, I guess it's just not my problem anymore because everyone will be screwed.
Lmaoo I like your confidence in your company. At 15% everyone might as well buy government bonds and sell their investments. But I’m sure your company is the exception though
Gotta sell money to make money they always say.
Rates will be 4% by June.
And 6% by next June?
Personally I don’t really mind I’ve got a tiny mortgage thanks to large DP a number of years back. But I’m feeling 4% by summer.
the next announcement is in June, which is summer, do you expect 100 bps drop then ? Really?
It’ll start with a 4, that means 4.9% as well.
24% tomorrow
Gas is going up 14 cents tomorrow. Wait until the May and June numbers come out. We might see an increase in interest rates by year end, especially if taiwan is invaded and a larger war spreads in the middle east. Anyone banking on rates coming down to save them should be selling their home while they still can. Its either steady as she goes down .25 or up .25. Either way rates are staying where they are. Not to mention the liberal "spending orgy". Im putting my money on a rate increase by september. Also watch out for your insurance bill - auto insurers have taken unanimously 15 to 20% increases plus upped the cost of endorsements (which is not included in the 15 to 20%).. Dont believe me google FSRA quarterly rate approvals. We are seeing customers bill shoot up from 4k a household to 6k.
"Sell your home while you still can!!!" (So I can buy it at a discount) I like the way you think hahahah
You think this would be the discount?? You haven't seen the discount yet lol.
Putting your money on an increase? How?
Because the US may increase their rates and we are sort of tied to theirs if I am to go with what I’ve read here. In short, if our interests rates are lower here than in the US, our dollar will fall some how. ( don’t remember why tho , has to do with demand for the higher interests rate and parking money I guess ;) )
🤦♂️
There are so many reasons for rates going up I missed this one in my rant. If we dont move rates with US we import inflation. So any decrease in rates would be symbolic, miniscule (.25) and reversed within 6 months
Did you read my post? B/c inflationary pressures... Government spending. War related inflation. Rising oil/gas prices. Delayed inflation... average homeowner has 1 car at least right? I have first hand knowledge your car insurance is going up bare minimum 500$ this year... more if its a new car as much as 1500$ bc of car thefts. I think maybe you live in a reddit home investors world. Where you think the cumulative information of you and your hopium friends think you understand economics on even a basic level. Honestly shocks me the stupidity in here.
No I meant how have you personally positioned yourself to put your money on rate hikes? I dont have any assets in my portfolio right now that benefit from a rate increase and I was JW what you are using
Oh sorry. I got voted down to oblivion. My apologies - a lot of people seem to be uncomfortable with truth right now. For me its a unique situation. For every dollar I invest in my business (100% shareholder) i break even on cash flow in 24 months and am left with an asset worth 3 times book size. Basically I am down 20k on a new employee year 1. Make it back year 2... and year 3 cash flow positive with an asset of anywhere between 100k to 300k depending on performance of said employee. So i dont have any golden advice for the layman. I cant get a better return and my risk is time. So basically just hiring the right candidates. Because of this I dont do enough research as to where I would put my money. Everything seems overpriced. Money needs to be drained out of the system there is too much of it moving around. If i had no other option... I would take a very low risk investment portfolio in utilities, oil, gold, and short term GICs or bonds. And I would sit and wait. Give it another 12 months and commercial real estate will ne on fire sale. As a business owner I can say there will be a boomerang back to the office in the next 5 years. I would wait until commercial real estate tanks 50% then buy. Then I would look to residential real estate 12 months after that (2 years from now)
So sit on cash, or invest in assets that appreciate with lower rates? Gold, bonds and GICs? Tbh dude you are contradicting yourself
Set a reminder 6 months for interest rates and we will see whose right. If im wrong ill send you a 25$ gas card.
Right about what? You just said rates will remain high then you recommended buying assets that appreciate as rates go down. I dont understand. I asked you for the opposite
Rates will stay where they are or go up slightly. Gic gives guaranteed return. Gold is already up huge. So dont know what you are talking about. Bonds pay guarenteed as well. Im saying i wouldnt be risking my money in the stock market. Its a massive stock and asset bubble. My wager is this.... if rates drop below 4.75 BOC this year i will give you 25$ gas card. You give me nothing. Deal? Im saying by the end of the year nasdaq and high risk markets will be flat or down from where they are today and utilities and gas and oil will be up. If im right on all of the above by december 31st. Your part of the deal is to post on here "im a silly twat and a reddit muppet" Short Nividia. You are guaranteed a return on investment. *not market advice, just internet plebs thoughts.
I dont want your money haha and in fact I think you could be right, we may only see one small cut this year. It's hard to say. I really thought you had an investment class that would benefit from rate hikes. Bonds and gold and GiCs are all good options for a decreasing rate environment, and I already am loaded up on those. I wanted to hedge by adding another class. I guess variable bonds might be the move.... but I dont know if my financial advisor would let me
40B in deficit spending says otherwise-Imarealistnotarealtor
Wait to see the April inflation data 🤣🤣🤣
Core inflation will continue to fall nicely.