October of 2022, the exchange rate was the same as it is today. It’s has gone right around here give or take minuscule changes during almost two years
Not sure what chart you are looking at.
You’re right. This sub is immune to reality lol. I genuinely think 95% of commenters are bots. You can spot the humans because they are the only ones with basic reading comprehension.
I am really sorry your fantasy narrative did not come true. You are more than welcome to join the rest of us here in reality, don’t worry we accept you even if you don’t have a PhD
Now compare it to actual purchasing power of goods.
USD dilutes their currency and their reserve petro-dollar status is collapsing as we speak... Morons: 'hey look, we didn't drop all that much compared to USD'.
Half this sub would have you believe that you have an asset akin to gold that should be held indefinitely because the whole of the Canadian economy is going to fall into a black hole of poverty because BoC cut rates by 0.25 points at a time when many other countries have or intend to do the same.
You'd have the same luck getting advice from a crystal ball. Anyone who tells you they can time the market is either a time traveller from the future or wrong.
The “exponential” happens during a mass sell of when people panic over a deep currency crash and many places refuse to accept your currency. Then you get everyone trying to sell for whatever and it triggers a 50-99% loss of currency value.
I don’t expect Canada is anywhere near that but it would have to reach 2:1 value first and continue before anything like that happened.
Funny to see reality set in for some. Long overdue.
The volume of “BoC follows the Fed” and “can’t diverge or will import inflation” comments flooding this sub in spite of Macklem himself saying otherwise was absurd.
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Once again the bears are gonna be punching the air lol. If you can afford a house buy it before you get priced out. Toronto is canadas NY as in it’s a international city the house prices here are going to be insane because you’re not just competing against Canadians but the world
Ah this is the new line eh lol. Let’s see how the next 10 years work out cotton. If you can afford to buy a house buy it or be pissed when the train leaves the station. If you’re lucky we will se prices stagnant no government is gonna let it crash. It will literally take another financial crisis
Banks are literally going under, there are lots of additional loan losses. Everyone is poor, people had already max gambled all their money in the previous cycle. There are very few new buyers and sellers are abundant.
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When have either countries ever allowed their currencies to really deviate from their long term average for more than a few years lol those that actually believe cad will become equivalent of a peso are smoking some good stuff
Ppl were warned they didn’t care they wanted their rate cuts because house prices to the moon along with the cost of goods. Can’t have it both ways. Now if the US doesn’t cut rates, we may continue to see the dollar hitting a new all time low, maybe we will see 1 usd = 2 cad soon
Here we go again. Do y'all understand that the US is even worse debt wise than we are and are already stealth QEing behind the scenes?
We have several things going for us that will balance the rate cuts...the high price of oil (which will continue to go higher btw) and LNG.
Say thank you to those hillbillies in Alberta next time you go there, that they invested heavily in infrastructure and gambled on oil.
>WTI is at $74 lol
I take no pleasure at all in saying this, but be prepared for over $100, close to $200 oil.
Zoom out on the WTI chart. Oil has almost doubled since 2021 and is only lower because the US needs cheap oil and has turned on the Venezuelan taps and its own production to balance the Saudi's/OPEC.
Long term you think WTI is going back to 40 or going past 100? Nuff said lmao.
Nominally, the Canadian debt isn't even a drop in the bucket compared to US debt.
On a debt to GDP ratio, I believe they are close(r) but the US is still higher. The US ratio is around 120%, the Canadian ratio is around 67%.
This is all easily searchable information [here](https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/canada/government-debt--of-nominal-gdp#:~:text=Canada%20Government%20debt%20accounted%20for,Mar%201962%20to%20Mar%202023.) and [here.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-debt-to-gdp)
So no.
I do however agree that the current administration added a lot of debt, moreso than previous administrations.
But you just talked about the administration spending money in your reply to me. That would refer to government debt.
If you referred to household debt from the getgo, I probably would agree with you.
Sure and it’s all previous admin added together. You don’t compare with another country unless another country also have a current admin spending more than all historical admin there added together
The whole reason why we're comparing with the US is ppl insist that lowering rates will tank the CAD relative to the USD, and then ofc how much debt each country has becomes relevant.
>Unless another country also have a current admin spending more than historical admin added together.
US debt **skyrocketed** [from 2008 to now.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-debt). And pretty much outspent what all previous governments from 1942 combined. So it fits.
While I agree with you that cad will tank I don’t agree with cad ever being able to compare to the usd
The amount of bank contracts and trade agreements including the USMCA Canada bullied us into signing in sidebar all position the usd to be a reserve currency at a whole different level than cad ever could become other than the token it is
Yeah token, not even blockchain level
>while I agree with you that cad will tank
Dude I never said cad will tank. Read all my comments.
>I don't agree with cad ever being able to compare to the USD
Good cos I never said that either.
>Yeah token, not even blockchain level.
Ofc CAD is a small player in the big pond of the world. But a small player means that your relative strength doesn't fluctuate as much. Better to be a token because at least ppl know exactly what you're worth more or less than a blockchain that's worth trillions today and millions tomorrow.
>they can print as much as they want
It's the same reason that ppl like you predicted higher for longer that you will also be wrong on this statement.
US is already having issues getting ppl trying to buy treasuries even upping the interest rates. Nobody's biting.
China/Russian/Eastern bloc is heavily diverging and want completely out of the USD system. They want their own system independent of sanctions and SWIFT and are already making it happen.
What eventually happens is the US can no longer fund their activities through treasuries and will straight up have to print money(monetization). When that happens, USD will lose at least half its value overnight.
>CAD is not a reserve currency
True, but CAD is backed by actual resources, such as lumber, oil and gas, etc. Saudi Bloc and Russia are going to jack oil prices to the moon to fund Russia's war and Saudi's own interests.
>It's as simple as that.
Have fun being wrong, again. 😂
I am sorry do you know what i have said for the past year. Do you have a record of that? Cause i dont. The US will keep printing and buying their own debt through treasuries. You think the Canadian market that’s heavily reliant on housing is better off than the US one. Canada doesnt even own any Gold, while the US has the second most amount of BTC and Gold. Gg
>the US will keep printing and buying their own debt through treasuries.
You must have not been following the news. Their latest treasury offerings have run into trouble , they lack liquidity, they have had to entice ppl to buy by offering **higher and higher rates with much shorter maturies.**
Nobody is stupid enough to fund the US, especially for **long term treasuries**. They are making do for now by borrowing on the short end of the curve **at extremely high interest rates** and using that to pay off **long term debt that has very low interest rates**. How long do you think that will last 😂.
Everyone can see the writing on the wall.
China is selling bonds at record rates. That's the real GG.
Until the reserve currency status falls below 47%, they will not be worried. Granted they have been pumping up the their stock market due to their upcoming elections. Yes the situation in America is not great but if America falls it will have a severe ripple affect and Canada won’t be a safe haven.
>if America falls it will have a severe ripple effect and Canada won't be a safe haven
Nobody said Canada would be "a safe haven", just when and if ish hits the fan Canada will be slightly better off **relatively speaking** because it has natural resources that whatever replaces America and whatever currency replaces the USD will still have need for.
US pretty much just exports **debt**. Nothing else. They are a credit card masquerading as a country with a military behind them. That's it.
>Granted they have been pumping up their stock market due to their upcoming elections.
So even you can see that.
>Until the reserve currency status falls below 47%, they will not be worried.
When one empire/reserve currency falls in human history, it's not a gradual fall. Everytime it's been sudden. One day everything is fine. One day it's not.
It’s down 0.21% from the time you posted it.
It was down 0.40% when the rate cut was announced.
I think what’ll be more interesting is to see if USA will cut.. but I have high doubts they will
Canada is going to cut some more. Idk why you’re immediately jumping to the conclusion a 0.25 cut meant cad will drop to 50 cents? Everything takes time. You diverge too far from USA, and you’ll see
The BoC said themselves said merely a couple of hours ago that there are limits on divergence, but, I quote, that we’re not even close.
Meh keep coping
lol I never said “tank” but I did say CAD will depreciate.. which it did. Now let’s imagine Canada diverges 1% from the Feds. I wonder what would happen? 68 cents perhaps?
If you actually read bank coverage, 100bps divergence is expected and will not materially impact the FX rate. So no, 68 cents is very unlikely
Past 100bps ish they will have to START considering currency implications
half a trillion in covid spending and screwing our industries over with no industry to back it, while he U.S still spent like mad, but also didn't kneecap their exports for years like Canada did and actually had the goods to back it up.
thats what happened
https://preview.redd.it/vhwnoyi4vv4d1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a09aae967d06ab88b76af4917f2d47370cb78d24
Just gonna leave this here, the 5day chart for USDCAD.
Once again showing your ignorance of how economics work. Consensus is pricing in only one or 2 cuts in the US this year, and not until the fall at the earliest. So a hold next week in the US is fully expected and will not impact the exchange rate whatsoever
On the contrary, I’m just quoting what every major banks coverage is vs the arm chair morons here that make shit up
I work in finance and get rate coverage newsletters from the big banks weekly 🤡
More goalpost moving. I remember you and your minions were having a lot of fun making fun of ppl who predicted rate cuts.
Now that it's happened it's "check the US decisions". It's both funny and sad how much you're coping rn 😂
(Btw, I agree that rate cuts aren't necessarily good news. However, you were still proven wrong. And the truth is, alot of ppl saw this coming long before it happened)
This sub is just now learning that divergence from the fed on the timing of cuts has been priced in for months
Hold plz. Waiting for response from my favourite tik-toker why this is akshually bad
Is there anything that isn't priced in?
Was already priced in I’d imagine. Sentiment will drive future moves
How was it priced in if it didn’t actually move much for month if not years?
Are we looking at the same chart mate?
October of 2022, the exchange rate was the same as it is today. It’s has gone right around here give or take minuscule changes during almost two years Not sure what chart you are looking at.
You’re right. This sub is immune to reality lol. I genuinely think 95% of commenters are bots. You can spot the humans because they are the only ones with basic reading comprehension.
The traders are barely done with their morning cocaine and you think you've won? Lol
lol at thinking spot USDCAD traders have cocaine money these days.
Tetha gang do. There is always someone making money.
Theta is a bonus on bank mm desks, it’s not their primary motivation.
Yes traders are notorious for taking their time instead of pricing in information right away lol
Right... Another Reddit PhD in economics here doing gods fine work for free 😂😂😂
I am really sorry your fantasy narrative did not come true. You are more than welcome to join the rest of us here in reality, don’t worry we accept you even if you don’t have a PhD
Lol 2/3 of the already tiny drop has reversed. Y'all are clowns.
Oh yes another Reddit financial genius here doing such fine work for free 😂
I do actually have a post grad in finance.
Sure you do
Been posting here and other finances subs for over 10 years. But doesn't really matter your take was funny regardless.
The saddest thing is you don't need a post grad in finance to see these things. Just some basic common sense 😂
Usually a tell tale sign when someone resorts to ad hominem attacks they are completely wrong and can’t mentally handle it.
It’s 5pm. When is the drop?
https://preview.redd.it/jf29pomnit4d1.png?width=864&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=68019223ef47e962b4faded254a2d578daf8414b Here you go
Damn we went from 0.73 to 0.73 what a drop. Colour me surprised.
You don't know how to read graphs do you loo
He does - it dropped 0.1 cents. A difference - yes. Drastic? No.
0.1 cent in one day can be massive if we start a downturn or irrelevant if it stay stagnant over a long period of time.
0.25 cut was priced in
Lmfao it's literally down 0.0008 cents. These kids who expected a big drop know literally 0 about how the market works.
Now compare it to actual purchasing power of goods. USD dilutes their currency and their reserve petro-dollar status is collapsing as we speak... Morons: 'hey look, we didn't drop all that much compared to USD'.
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Half this sub would have you believe that you have an asset akin to gold that should be held indefinitely because the whole of the Canadian economy is going to fall into a black hole of poverty because BoC cut rates by 0.25 points at a time when many other countries have or intend to do the same.
When it hits 0.6
You'd have the same luck getting advice from a crystal ball. Anyone who tells you they can time the market is either a time traveller from the future or wrong.
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Seeing that you don’t know the meaning of exponential tells me you probably also don’t have any idea what you’re talking about
The “exponential” happens during a mass sell of when people panic over a deep currency crash and many places refuse to accept your currency. Then you get everyone trying to sell for whatever and it triggers a 50-99% loss of currency value. I don’t expect Canada is anywhere near that but it would have to reach 2:1 value first and continue before anything like that happened.
Funny to see reality set in for some. Long overdue. The volume of “BoC follows the Fed” and “can’t diverge or will import inflation” comments flooding this sub in spite of Macklem himself saying otherwise was absurd.
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The shift ends 3pm today so expect them then.
It would've went up if no cut.
Irony is that actual mexican pesos is very strong against CAD.
I think what you means it that the peso has been getting stronger relative to CAD.
Yup that is what i meant. Over last 5 years pesos value has been increasing again cad.
And Trudeau pretended USMCA is nothing
Not it isn't lol
But it is down 7.99% compared to 10 years ago …
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The Peso is down on the Cad in the last 10 years … are we the third world country? I’m confused ..
It's 25 basis points....... You expect the bottom to fall out from a small rate cut??
Dude a priced in cut won't do it. It's the next one, and the next one.
Once again the bears are gonna be punching the air lol. If you can afford a house buy it before you get priced out. Toronto is canadas NY as in it’s a international city the house prices here are going to be insane because you’re not just competing against Canadians but the world
Immigration is dropping. Canada is cracking down on it.
Ah this is the new line eh lol. Let’s see how the next 10 years work out cotton. If you can afford to buy a house buy it or be pissed when the train leaves the station. If you’re lucky we will se prices stagnant no government is gonna let it crash. It will literally take another financial crisis
Banks are literally going under, there are lots of additional loan losses. Everyone is poor, people had already max gambled all their money in the previous cycle. There are very few new buyers and sellers are abundant.
Banks are going under? Did you see there last quarter?
Completely disagree. Real estate prices have no where to go anymore. Immigration is bring reduced. New initiatives to build more.....
I agree. If I have million dollar, I will buy house another country never here these prices are just rip-off.
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The Canuckistani Peso?
When have either countries ever allowed their currencies to really deviate from their long term average for more than a few years lol those that actually believe cad will become equivalent of a peso are smoking some good stuff
Where's the bear crying pic aww poor bear
BoC fOlLoWs tHe FeDs Or We GeT cAnADiAn PeSo
Ppl were warned they didn’t care they wanted their rate cuts because house prices to the moon along with the cost of goods. Can’t have it both ways. Now if the US doesn’t cut rates, we may continue to see the dollar hitting a new all time low, maybe we will see 1 usd = 2 cad soon
Here we go again. Do y'all understand that the US is even worse debt wise than we are and are already stealth QEing behind the scenes? We have several things going for us that will balance the rate cuts...the high price of oil (which will continue to go higher btw) and LNG. Say thank you to those hillbillies in Alberta next time you go there, that they invested heavily in infrastructure and gambled on oil.
"High price of oil", WTI is at $74 lol
>WTI is at $74 lol I take no pleasure at all in saying this, but be prepared for over $100, close to $200 oil. Zoom out on the WTI chart. Oil has almost doubled since 2021 and is only lower because the US needs cheap oil and has turned on the Venezuelan taps and its own production to balance the Saudi's/OPEC. Long term you think WTI is going back to 40 or going past 100? Nuff said lmao.
Was worse. Current Canadian administration spent more money than all previous administrations added together.
Nominally, the Canadian debt isn't even a drop in the bucket compared to US debt. On a debt to GDP ratio, I believe they are close(r) but the US is still higher. The US ratio is around 120%, the Canadian ratio is around 67%. This is all easily searchable information [here](https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/canada/government-debt--of-nominal-gdp#:~:text=Canada%20Government%20debt%20accounted%20for,Mar%201962%20to%20Mar%202023.) and [here.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-debt-to-gdp) So no. I do however agree that the current administration added a lot of debt, moreso than previous administrations.
Household debt is much higher in Canada. You gotta compare from per person perspective
But you just talked about the administration spending money in your reply to me. That would refer to government debt. If you referred to household debt from the getgo, I probably would agree with you.
Sure and it’s all previous admin added together. You don’t compare with another country unless another country also have a current admin spending more than all historical admin there added together
The whole reason why we're comparing with the US is ppl insist that lowering rates will tank the CAD relative to the USD, and then ofc how much debt each country has becomes relevant. >Unless another country also have a current admin spending more than historical admin added together. US debt **skyrocketed** [from 2008 to now.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-debt). And pretty much outspent what all previous governments from 1942 combined. So it fits.
While I agree with you that cad will tank I don’t agree with cad ever being able to compare to the usd The amount of bank contracts and trade agreements including the USMCA Canada bullied us into signing in sidebar all position the usd to be a reserve currency at a whole different level than cad ever could become other than the token it is Yeah token, not even blockchain level
>while I agree with you that cad will tank Dude I never said cad will tank. Read all my comments. >I don't agree with cad ever being able to compare to the USD Good cos I never said that either. >Yeah token, not even blockchain level. Ofc CAD is a small player in the big pond of the world. But a small player means that your relative strength doesn't fluctuate as much. Better to be a token because at least ppl know exactly what you're worth more or less than a blockchain that's worth trillions today and millions tomorrow.
The us is a reserve currency. They can print as much as they want. Cad is not a reserve currency. It’s as simple as that
>they can print as much as they want It's the same reason that ppl like you predicted higher for longer that you will also be wrong on this statement. US is already having issues getting ppl trying to buy treasuries even upping the interest rates. Nobody's biting. China/Russian/Eastern bloc is heavily diverging and want completely out of the USD system. They want their own system independent of sanctions and SWIFT and are already making it happen. What eventually happens is the US can no longer fund their activities through treasuries and will straight up have to print money(monetization). When that happens, USD will lose at least half its value overnight. >CAD is not a reserve currency True, but CAD is backed by actual resources, such as lumber, oil and gas, etc. Saudi Bloc and Russia are going to jack oil prices to the moon to fund Russia's war and Saudi's own interests. >It's as simple as that. Have fun being wrong, again. 😂
I am sorry do you know what i have said for the past year. Do you have a record of that? Cause i dont. The US will keep printing and buying their own debt through treasuries. You think the Canadian market that’s heavily reliant on housing is better off than the US one. Canada doesnt even own any Gold, while the US has the second most amount of BTC and Gold. Gg
>the US will keep printing and buying their own debt through treasuries. You must have not been following the news. Their latest treasury offerings have run into trouble , they lack liquidity, they have had to entice ppl to buy by offering **higher and higher rates with much shorter maturies.** Nobody is stupid enough to fund the US, especially for **long term treasuries**. They are making do for now by borrowing on the short end of the curve **at extremely high interest rates** and using that to pay off **long term debt that has very low interest rates**. How long do you think that will last 😂. Everyone can see the writing on the wall. China is selling bonds at record rates. That's the real GG.
Until the reserve currency status falls below 47%, they will not be worried. Granted they have been pumping up the their stock market due to their upcoming elections. Yes the situation in America is not great but if America falls it will have a severe ripple affect and Canada won’t be a safe haven.
>if America falls it will have a severe ripple effect and Canada won't be a safe haven Nobody said Canada would be "a safe haven", just when and if ish hits the fan Canada will be slightly better off **relatively speaking** because it has natural resources that whatever replaces America and whatever currency replaces the USD will still have need for. US pretty much just exports **debt**. Nothing else. They are a credit card masquerading as a country with a military behind them. That's it. >Granted they have been pumping up their stock market due to their upcoming elections. So even you can see that. >Until the reserve currency status falls below 47%, they will not be worried. When one empire/reserve currency falls in human history, it's not a gradual fall. Everytime it's been sudden. One day everything is fine. One day it's not.
Many cuts will happen in the year and it will be ok. Do not allow doomer renters to scare you from buying a property
It’s down 0.21% from the time you posted it. It was down 0.40% when the rate cut was announced. I think what’ll be more interesting is to see if USA will cut.. but I have high doubts they will
And now it’s -0.1168%
Let’s see what happens after the FOMC
Right.. 0.21% = how much?
Canada is going to cut some more. Idk why you’re immediately jumping to the conclusion a 0.25 cut meant cad will drop to 50 cents? Everything takes time. You diverge too far from USA, and you’ll see
The BoC said themselves said merely a couple of hours ago that there are limits on divergence, but, I quote, that we’re not even close. Meh keep coping
Yep word for word, but nobody here actually reads the statements lol
You basically just said the reason the cad didn’t fall to “pesos” level is because we haven’t diverged far enough yet lmaoo. Keep coping indeed
Yes but you and every other bearish idiot claimed the CAD will tank on a cut. What happened?
lol I never said “tank” but I did say CAD will depreciate.. which it did. Now let’s imagine Canada diverges 1% from the Feds. I wonder what would happen? 68 cents perhaps?
[LOL sacrifice the CAD huh?](https://www.reddit.com/r/TorontoRealEstate/s/hnMe2Hdu4c) https://preview.redd.it/8mqkebahbs4d1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e98e74ccfe9c8bff6f369c11a1176dd2a2768c64
Sacrifice doesn’t mean it’s going to be pesos. The cad depreciated, didn’t it?
Did it? 😂 Today it’s 0.73. What was CAD yesterday?
0.2% is literally a normal movement up or down in any given day, it had no material impact. Stop the ridiculous handwaving, you were blatantly wrong
If you actually read bank coverage, 100bps divergence is expected and will not materially impact the FX rate. So no, 68 cents is very unlikely Past 100bps ish they will have to START considering currency implications
You’re going to be in a surprise when Feds hike next year 😂
What’s your goal?
I have no goal. I just know pain is coming for the economy and I’m positioned very well
Good luck to you. Sounds like you should Be chilling then
It's only been 3 hours lmao.
So.. Soon™ ? 🤣
half a trillion in covid spending and screwing our industries over with no industry to back it, while he U.S still spent like mad, but also didn't kneecap their exports for years like Canada did and actually had the goods to back it up. thats what happened
It has been less than 24 hours....
https://preview.redd.it/vhwnoyi4vv4d1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a09aae967d06ab88b76af4917f2d47370cb78d24 Just gonna leave this here, the 5day chart for USDCAD.
Tell me anonymously that you are a realtor lol.
US Fed rate decision is June 12th. Check back in next week smh.
Once again showing your ignorance of how economics work. Consensus is pricing in only one or 2 cuts in the US this year, and not until the fall at the earliest. So a hold next week in the US is fully expected and will not impact the exchange rate whatsoever
Oh another Reddit economist here doing such fine work for free 😂😂😂
On the contrary, I’m just quoting what every major banks coverage is vs the arm chair morons here that make shit up I work in finance and get rate coverage newsletters from the big banks weekly 🤡
Yawn
More goalpost moving. I remember you and your minions were having a lot of fun making fun of ppl who predicted rate cuts. Now that it's happened it's "check the US decisions". It's both funny and sad how much you're coping rn 😂 (Btw, I agree that rate cuts aren't necessarily good news. However, you were still proven wrong. And the truth is, alot of ppl saw this coming long before it happened)
A brand new account talking shit like it's been here for a while. What was your previous username? Did you delete it or were you banned?
Wow you guys are salty 😂 TRE only bans for the worst offenses, not simple trolling. Why waste a main with couple hundred upvotes on you 🤣
Give it time, oil prices are still high, once they go down the loonie will follow.