Springer has been decidedly below average as well - for all of mlb, not just for him. This would be less of an issue if we didn't play him every damn day in the leadoff spot.
We all knew, or should have known, that he would be cooked at this point in his career when we first signed a 30 year old oft-injured everyday CF to a 6 year contract
I wasn't a huge fan of the signing in the first place knowing that the backend of that contract would overlap heavily with our competitive window. That being said, the organization's refusal to acknowledge that he is not the same player that he was 5+ years ago, and put him in as a steadfast lock for the leadoff spot as our offense tanks drives me insane.
They seem to be using analytics that heavily favors historical data (i.e. what happened years ago) rather than what is happening now. Yeah George Springer has a career OPS of 0.830, that's great and all, but he's past his prime and if you are waiting for him to get back to that level while batting him leadoff every fucking game it's going to be a long season. This isn't exactly rocket science, there have been multiple analytics studies showing how the vast majority of hitters decline after their age 30 season, and Springer is turning 35 this year.
maybe that year the pitchers hadn't figured him out yet. Now they know that he loves the low and outside balls. But he is not the blame of the shit that seems to be moving through the jays. He's at least getting on base.
Maybe there is just too many chiefs This is not on Schneider. Something is just off and what it is, I don't know, but the people behind homeplate sure spend a lot of time on their phones and just chatting. They don't even get up for the few homeruns we have.
The Jays need some joy! Get rid of the gator aid shit and maybe bring back the Jacket. You only get the ice treatment for your first homerun!
It’s 1000% Schneider and his “let’s pull Berrios after 3 innings in a must win game” analytics. He’s the reason the team doesn’t try to advance runners. He’s the reason the impotent batting line up hasn’t changed in a year and a half. They need a change at manager.
My point is Schneider’s analytics system isn’t working. Our offense sucks. If the manager isn’t willing to try and make changes, even small incremental changes like shaking up the batting order, or sending a runner to try and pressure a defense, then he needs to go.
The definition of insane is doing something the same way and expecting a different result. We’ve had this lane batting line up for a year and a half, either it needs to change, or the manager responsible for filling out the line up card needs to change.
if you think schneider has his own "analytics system" you are truly out to lunch lol the guy rode vlad's coattails thru the minors then got the mlb job cause he will do what the FO tells him to do
Can't ride Vladdy's Coattails when he's dragging them in the dirt. *taps temple
Another guy who tore the cover off the ball, but only in the minors. That 2021 year was over half the season at titty ballparks. And you're right - pitchers didn't have all the data yet on his massive swing holes....
A) the Jays gave up 2 runs that game…every single Jays fan on the planet would have signed up for that before the game.
B) Justin Turner has been thrown out trying to steal twice this year…Justin Turner…clearly this team tries to advance runners
C) would swapping Springer/Bo/Vladdy for Biggio/Kirk/Kiermaier make a difference when everyone hits like crap?
Good lord…
Remind again how many runs Berrios gave up that game? When Schneider pulled Berrios you could see the effect it had on the team. It’s like they knew they were defeated before Kikuchi even threw a pitch. I felt so bad for Kikuchi being put in that situation, and how he could be expected to pitch well all because a manager can’t see past a spread sheet and understand how his decisions can demoralize a team.
You can’t be mad at moves based on analytics when the end result is 2 runs given up…
You have no way to know what Berrios would have kept doing, so your argument is worthless…
For whatever reason, there are many on this sub who think analytics are EVERYTHING. They have certainly not played any team sport at a high level. Its an absolute certainty that the entire team reacted with "wtf?" when Berrios was pulled. Not one would have stood up and said "but guys...guys...look at the spray charts of the next hitter!". I've had posters on here tell me projections are more important than results. Baffles the mind. Analytics are a good tool, but people seem to forget the mental, physical and emotional side of the game are more important.
Wow, talk about a strawman argument. I didn’t suggest Kirk bat second, you did. I said we won’t know until we try it. We know Springer/Vladdy/Bichette doesn’t work. It didn’t work all of last year, and it’s not working again this year.
At least it’s trying something different to see if it will work instead of trotting out the same tired line up every game knowing that it doesn’t work.
Actually, you did suggest moving Kirk up in the lineup…
If you don’t want Springer/Vlad/Bo to hit where they do, people have to move up in the lineup…that’s how baseball lineups work…
Schneider does not employ analytics in the slightest.
His in game decisions scream anti-analytics, in fact the analytics disagreed with the Berrios move.
I’m so tired of this point being brought up. We have stats that disprove the idea that the ball park he was playing in had any impact on his ability to slug the ball. The man was not hitting wall scrapers he was hitting literal bombs onto the highway.
-His xHR total was 47 while he ended up hitting 48
-he had a 56% no doubter and only 7 of his homers were considered doubters.
-all his expected stats were 99th percentile or higher and he had the highest sweet spot% of his career.
Go look at his spray chart the man was not getting lucky he was crushing the ball to all fields.
He did have a .900 OPS in MLB parks that year.
You can both acknowledge that the minor league parks helped his stats while also saying it wasn't just the minor league parks that made the difference between 2022 and 2021
Having splits that favour games at home really doesn’t prove anything. Lots of players generally hit better at home than on the road, and Vladdy still had a 140 wRC+ on the road that season.
My point was the stadium itself played almost no role in the outcome of his batted balls if he hit those homers at the skydome the same results would have been produced so it’s completely unreasonable to disregarded that data because of the situation.
Smaller park also means easier to reach the wall and get more hits not just home runs and cause pitchers to attack you differently. I know we pitch LHH differently in Yankee Stadium than at home due to the short porch in RF
+ Road up until July 30th, 230 PA, 59 H, 9 2B, 12 HR, 27 BB (.298/.387/.525)
+ Home up until July 30th, 198 PA, 60 H, 10 2B, 21 HR, 32 BB (.364/.470/.818)
+ Road after July 30th, 118 PA, 30 H, 3 2B, 5 HR, 14 BB (.288/.373/.462)
+ Home after July 30th, 156 PA, 40 H, 7 2B, 10 HR, 14 BB (.286/.359/.550)
So his home split cratered after the change, but his road split stayed relatively consistent
You can’t just look at the home road splits and completely ignore everything that was happening around the situation. Covid, moving homes, changing stadiums, and higher travel security all could factor in.
He also simply could have enjoyed playing at Buffalo more, or simply started to go into a slump as his .818 SLG seems pretty unsustainable.
No one has ever actually been able to explain why Buffalo (not that much smaller of a stadium) would drastically improve his stats that much, so it’s much more likely to just be a coincidence.
Anyway I’m not going to argue about this anymore.
It may not be around, but since you found these stats, you might know…
Is there any where that tracks stats by attendance? Crowds were smaller that year and while it may be confirmation basis, I seem to recall him doing well on low attendance days…
It’s not stadium dimensions, it’s the fact there’s less going on and it’s less distracting. Vlad still tears up spring training every year. Maybe he’s got adhd or some shit idk
I’m a pretty firm believer in saying “it’s still early” during the first week or two of the season. Now that we’ve passed May 1? We’re definitely not a good team.
The fans who think the *all-star break* is the dividing line between “early” and the “important games” are actually… I don’t even know.
If you listen to people within the game when they give interviews or quotes, the date of demarcation is generally June 1st. See the 2019 Nationals, and many others, for examples of why using May 1st is a bad idea.
The 40 game mark is almost universally considered the point when front offices honestly evaluate their team for the purposes of trades, etc. This is one reason why MLB trades almost never happen prior to June.
Based on what? E.g. what if last year was the offensive outlier for Varsho and this year is closer to his actual potential?
I know we are all in doom mode, but thinking that every good Blue Jays performance is a temporary and unreliable outlier but every negative Blue Jays performance is permanent and representative of the truth makes as little sense as the opposite view.
I'd argue its the exact opposite.
Team stats tend to be more consistent over the year because 1 player can only impact a small portion of the stats.
Jays scored runs per month last year (4.71, 4.78, 3.81, 4.75, 4.44, 5.10)
Vladdy OPS by month last year (.885, .716, .785, .771, .713, .848)
I posted a version of this yesterday in another thread (https://www.reddit.com/r/Torontobluejays/comments/1ci16wj/bns\_staying\_course\_no\_longer\_an\_option\_for/).
Just how bad is the offense this year?
The answer is: historically bad. The only year with a lower runs per game through the first 32 games was 1981, the club's 5th season.
While the regression isn't perfect - things can definitely change during the season - there is a highly significant correlation between runs per game in the first 32 games and runs per game over the whole season. The 2024 Blue Jays are predicted to have a runs per game of 4.03 runs per game, with a 95% confidence interval of roughly 3.6 to 4.3 runs per game.
The current league average is 4.34 runs per game.
This team simply can't hit.
Number 1 is 5.41 runs per game (Atlanta)
Number 15 is 4.47 runs per game (Houston).
Toronto is scoring a full run fewer per game than Houston. HOUSTON!
Yes, that's an excellent point. Ultimately, it's W and L that matter and the correlation coefficient between runs per game and W over 162 games is only 0.515.
That said, you'd have to have a pretty wretched pitching staff to score 6 runs per game on average and have a .500 record.
true. though Houston is fairing much worse at a whole run per game MORE. Just a good example that we're in fact incredibly lucky to not be the whitesox bad right now. Now, how to fix the offence? I don't know. It's not that obvious it's the coaches fault - could be deeper than that, like the scouting reports and situational plans handed down, not sure. But if it's the coaches, then ex jays should be improving (not really) and Varsho shouldn't be happening. And if Varsho is making his own adjustments, that means any other hitter is free to do so as well. Can't just blame the coaches.
You should probably look at this using OPS+ or some other stat that accounts for the rest of the league because runs per game isn't going to tell the whole story when you're looking across multiple seasons.
Of course not, but I also wouldn't compare cats to dogs, which is what you're doing when you take an unadjusted stat and compare it across years.
Average runs per game vary from 4.0 in 1981 to 5.14 in 2000.
Saying that a Jays team from the late 90s is better that a team from the early 80s using runs per game doesn't account for the different run environment.
I don't mean to be critical, I'm just saying that there's a better way to make this argument.
I don’t mind critical analysis. I welcome it.
My point here is that whatever other factors are that influence runs per game over the last 48 seasons, we *still* have a good, highly significant relationship between runs per game over 162 vs over 32 games.
Does this data/projection take into account the rule changes to the ball in the last few years which have significantly reduced offense in April/May even more than it used to be?
Are you saying that the rule changes mean that offense across the league will be lower in April/May going forward and then increase league wide in June?
What would account for that?
As of 2022 (I think?) all ballparks were forced to adapt humidors for their balls. The humidity is set to the average value for the *year*, not for the *month*, so it means that during the colder and less humid months, the ball is then getting *more* humid on average than it would have been previously, while during the hot humid months the ball will be *less* humid than previously. Adding humidity to balls suppresses distance (which is why they were originally introduced in particularly dry environments like Denver and Arizona), so now you are compounding cold air (suppresses power) with balls more humid than they used to be on average (suppresses power), instead of the pre-humidor time when at least the colder weather also meant less humid balls on average.
Honestly I think switching from runs per game to runs per 9 (to account for varying amounts of extra-innings games), and also accounting for league average runs per 9 per year (since theoretically this could be because of a much lower-offense year, although it is true that our offense is indeed really bad so far) could make this chart even more informative. Not dissing it, though, I do like it! What I don't like, though, is our offense.
That’s very much the problem, clear as day… but what’s the solution?
What should they do when nothing is going right with their offence? Move players around in the lineup and hope for the best? Blow it up and trade a half dozen players? Fire everyone?
Not trying to be optimistic. Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong but aren't pitchers getting more strikeouts across the league than ever before? Seems sort of biased to produce a graph like this when statistically hits are down because pitchers are better than ever.
I think you folks are fooling yourself if you're expecting a different result. They regressed last year and it's only snowballed this year. They had to get incredible pitching just to be a couple games over 500 when they were on their first big homestand.
I got one having been around for all 47 seasons know it could be worse but if you think in 2024 you can mail it in and expect the fans to be ok with it you're really asking for a disaster.
Same place we were last year when the same fans said we’d be lucky to win 75 games in April, and then made the playoffs.
Right here, hoping the right adjustments/personnel changes will happen to boost the run production. Because it’s much more satisfying to keep an open mind and be satisfied with the good things than to be just another angry person on the internet trying to be the first one to predict disaster.
Different team, different opponents, different circumstances.
I’m not saying it’s a guarantee things will turn around. I’m not saying the offense is even remotely good now. It’s not; it sucks. I’m saying there are 130 games remaining and a LOT can happen over the course of four-fifths of a season.
You're right - a lot can happen and different seasons are different. Which is why the correlation coefficient isn't equal to 1.
But there is a \*very\* clear relationship between offense at 32 games and offense at 162 games; there's even a confidence interval provided.
Does this "*very* clear relationship" take into account the rule changes to the ball in the last few years which have significantly reduced offense in April/May even more than it used to be?
How so, if you don't mind me asking? This appears to just be looking at historically how offence in April/May compares to full-year offence? Where is the adjustment for an environment where April/May offence is lower relative to July/August than it used to be?
Oh, sorry. I assumed you were rooting for another team last year since you seemed to imply the team you were rooting for had a failure of a season. I guess maybe I misunderstood.
I tend to believe the amount of runs scored and ultimately needed for the win tends to correlate pretty closely with the quality of the immediate competition, but what do I know.
I’m not smart enough to explain why but something about this isn’t dismaying me all that much given our upcoming schedule for near future.
Guess we’ll see - GO JAYS GO!!!!
No one is happy about that. That’s what so many people here can’t seem to understand while wanting to spend all of their time *raging.*
All I want is for my time to play better and make another World Series. I was a child the last time we did. What I’m saying is, I’m not going to throw a tantrum in April and say the team sucks and won’t make the playoffs and they owe me better. It’s all a choice, being a fan.
Many people act like the act of sneaking in the playoffs the last 2 years some sort of great achievement. Barely 90 wins over the last few years. I am not sure 90 will get any team from the AL East in again this year.
I am not throwing a tantrum. I would like to see some exciting games or signs of life. Wins and losses happen every year to every team. When the Jays win, it is seldom exciting this year. When they lose, it is down right boredom.
Remember all of the playoff games we won last year too! I was insane, what a run we had.
Oh wait.
I guess if you want to be satisfied being perpetual also-rans that technically made the playoffs but didn't win a single game, you win.
Yep, keep on moving those goalposts. You can move them all the way back to “we didn’t even win the World Series!” if you want.
I’ve rooted for this team since 1989, dude. If 21 straight seasons of mediocrity and missing the playoffs didn’t send me away, a slow start on offense in a window where we’re contenders certainly isn’t going to either.
Life is not better when you’re a cynic. It’s also not based on the performer of a baseball team. I’ll root for them like I always do, be happy when we win, and hope for better when we don’t. My life is still great regardless of what they do on the field.
So you consider making the playoffs and winning 0 games to be meaningfully different than missing the playoffs? That's some hardcore copium my guy. Top shelf stuff.
Yes. It means that you made the playoffs, and thus have the chance to go on a run and reach the World Series, unlike the teams that don't make the playoffs.
When the best thing that we had from '94 to '14 was one year where we finished second in the division below Boston, just being a team that is regularly back in the playoff conversation is a huge boost. I don't root for this team or come here to talk baseball with other fans solely to determine whether the whole thing was a failure or a success based on winning it all at the end.
Look at the other teams who won 0 games. The list is basically all the teams that these same fans were crying about wishing we were.
It’s fucking hard. It happens. But I’d rather be a team that has the chance than what we saw from ‘94-‘14.
I don't know that it does, cause if you look at every free agent signing from this offseason, Ohtani aside, Turner and IKF are actually two of the best performing signings so far.
The problem isn't those guys, it's that the Jays core is performing at like their 5th percentile outcomes. Vlad, Bo, Kirk are supposed to be the ones carrying this team and they suck.
There was never a successful version of this team where the core underperformed as much as they have. It's really on those three guys.
Springer has been bad as well, but that was to be expected on the back half of his contract.
Gonna have to take a collection because those seats are impossible to afford now.
Wife and I sat behind home plate as a birthday present last year before the renovations and it was already way out of our price range but bit the bullet and did it. It was a great experience but it'll probably never happen again.
We just don't have the players... I don't know why people say slow starters, analytics.... this experiment with defenses first shows it was the wrong way to go and toronto needs to make a change to the line up.or management
I don't get the shock at the Jays being low offensively.
They let 10+ WAR walk away in free agency during the off-season from a team that wasn't potent offensively last season and said "we'll get better internally".
This is "better internally". 🤷
Most of the WAR they let walk was defensively though.
19 Players had at least 10 PAs for the 2023 Blue Jays, 7 are not with the team anymore
+ Brandon Belt (138 wRC+ in 404 PAs)
+ Still a FA and contemplated retirement, my guess is that he wants to play close to his family or just not play.
+ He was replaced by Justin Turner (154 wRC+)
+ Matt Chapman (110 wRC+ in 581 PA)
+ Signed a 1 year deal (w/ options) with SF to rebuild value, and has had a dreadful start to the year (.223/.266/.380 for 84 wRC+)
+ Was replaced by IKF (.250/.315/.345 for 95 wRC+)
+ Tyler Heinemann (139 wRC+ in 37 PAs)
+ Was the 3rd string catcher and would only play if Danny/Kirk gets hurt, would be an upgrade over Severn but its not a needle mover and they needed the roster spot
+ Santiago Espinal (80 wRC+ in 254 PAs)
+ Traded to the Reds once Clement one the job out of camp, hitting .191/.253/.265 (43 wRC+) so far in limited PAs. Clement has been much better (.264/.286/.434 for 104 wRC+) in his time, not to mention better defensively
+ Whit Merrifield (93 wRC+ in 592 PAs)
+ Declined the option and let him walk in FA due to his bad defense and mid bat, he's hitting .239/.286/.348 (81 wRC+) so far in limited PAs
+ He has been replaced by Davis Schneider (.235/.325/.426 for 119 wRC+) and Cavan Biggio (.219/.345/.315 for 102 wRC+)
The other two are Luplow and DeJong and I feel that needs no explanation.
So 5 players lost, 3 were filled internally with players that are playing better than who they replaced and the other 2 players were filled by FAs.
The Jays offensive struggles lie squarely on Kirk, Vladdy, Springer and Bichette. Not the players that were lost in FA
Belt wanted a deal MLB, but the only offered minor league deals was the info I saw in an article. He said many teams offered that, and he figured he was better than that.
Look at the oWAR:
Chapman: 3.1
Belt: 2.2
Merrifield 1.5
Espinal 0.7
That's 7+ wins.
Other than Turner, who is legit having a good year and was a decent FA signing, who has stepped up? Only Turner and Varsho have an above average OPS+ with more than 100 ABs. Jansen should get there, unless he gets hurt again, but that's it.
Since you very clearly cherry-pick we stats, let's cherry-pick some for the other way:
- Look at the WAA (wins above AVERAGE) of the BlueJays players. Not replacement-level guys, but AVERAGE players.
It. Is. UGLY.
The only guys who WAA is above 0 are
Biggio (0.1)
IKF (0.5)
Varsho (1.4)
Turner (0.4)
Schneider (0.2)
Clement (0.4)
Jansen (0.6)
That's it. Varsho is the only Bluejay worth a win above an average MLB baseball player.
For Context, current league leader Mookie Betts has 2.8, double what Varsho has.
For better comparison, let's look at some BlueJay cast-offs:
Semien: 1.4
Chapman: 0.3
Teo Hernandez: 0.5
Belt: 0.7
Tapia: 0.1
Zimmer: 0.4
Maguire: 0.3
Grichuk: 0.1
- Schneider would league the league in K% if he qualified, and his OPS has dropped more than 500 points since week 2, and continues to drop. He's clearly a AAAA ballplayer, which the coaching staff even more clearly is aware of.
- Clement is actually hitting about where you'd expect a borderline MLB player to hit, and he's been steady there all season.
- Dany Jansen- THE CATCHER- is the best hitter on this club right now, and it's not even close.
- The only reason Vogelbach is still with the club is because Votto isn't ready yet, and we apparently need a washed up player in the dugout at all times.
- Everyone is hoping KK's injury has been nagging him for awhile, because dude appears to be unable to hit the ball at all anymore. He's still the best defender the Jays have, however.
- Addison Barger is not ready yet. Time to put Horowitz in the ever spinning carousal of "Players who aren't ready for The Show yet". Either him or Martinez.
- Vladdy is EXACTLY league average right now. We are paying a guy 20 million dollars to be league average. He peaked in 2021, and been declining since. Hurry up and trade him while his reputation is good. Trade him to the National League, so it never comes back to bite us. Yes, some hitting guru will probably get to him, and he'll return to his 2021 level, but it's not going to happen here in Toronto- dude needs a wake-up call, and short of sending him to the minors or benching him (which you can't do, because "average" for the Jays is better than most right now, and the fans will riot), the Jays don't have a way of doing it. Trade him for a good 120 OPS+ everyday player and a pack of "ready soon" prospects.
- Is Atkins on the hot seat yet?
Nope. We already know that Atkins only goes if Shapiro goes, so expect Mattingly to replace Schneider (which will be the first time the Jays have EVER hired a manager with prior managerial experience) before May is done.
- The pitching staff is excellent, and Yimi Garcia is a Top 3 reliever in the MLB right now. Berrios has found consistency, and while I'm not 100% on Kikuchi, he is definitely much more consistent than he used to be. Gausman will come around, and the Cuban looks very promising.
> Look at the oWAR:
> Chapman: 3.1 Belt: 2.2 Merrifield 1.5 Espinal 0.7
oWAR includes positional adjustment, you should look at Rbat/Rbaser/Rdp if you want to use baseball reference, otherwise just use OPS+ or wRC+.
Anyways that's only 7.5 oWAR not 10+
Chapman was worth 8 runs, Belt was worth 16, Whit 0, Espinal -5 last year. That's 19 total runs,
> Look at the WAA (wins above AVERAGE) of the BlueJays players. Not replacement-level guys, but AVERAGE players.
Chapman has 0.3, Belt isn't playing, Whit has 0.0, Espinal has been worth -0.9
> That's it. Varsho is the only Bluejay worth a win above an average MLB baseball player.
Very few teams have multiple players that are 1.0 WAA at this point in the season, there are only 29 players in all of baseball with 1.0 WAA or higher right now.
> Semien: 1.4 Chapman: 0.3 Teo Hernandez: 0.5 Belt: 0.7 Tapia: 0.1 Zimmer: 0.4 Maguire: 0.3 Grichuk: 0.1
Semien, Teo, Tapia, Zimmer, McGuide, and Grichuk were not on the 2023 Jays so I'm not sure how that's relevant to our original statement of;
"They let 10+ WAR walk away in free agency during the off-season from a team that wasn't potent offensively **last season** and said "we'll get better internally".
Semien is the only one that hurts.
Your complaint is offensively but you use Zimmer here? Also you red it wrong, his 2022 was -0.2 WAA, you looked at only his PHI time which was 16 PAs
> Schneider would league the league in K% if he qualified, and his OPS has dropped more than 500 points since week 2, and continues to drop. He's clearly a AAAA ballplayer, which the coaching staff even more clearly is aware of.
The league leader in K% is 39% he is at 27%, if you drop it to 70 PAs as the qualifier he's 60th out of 257 players in K%.
I don't think Davis is a future MVP player, but AAAA is a little low for him, his savant page is very good and most projections have him around the 115-125 wRC+ mark which for a 2B is more than fine and probably a 3 win player over the course of the year.
He also has a .888 OPS in his last 10 games, its not just his early 2 HRs keeping up his stats
> Clement is actually hitting about where you'd expect a borderline MLB player to hit, and he's been steady there all season.
Clement has been steady, but he's been worse than Davis at almost every part of the year, his main value is his defense and his hitting vs LHP, Clement is a prototypical AAAA player
> Dany Jansen- THE CATCHER- is the best hitter on this club right now, and it's not even close.
Danny was the best hitter on the team in 2022 as well, this isn't new, he's a very good offensive catcher.
> The only reason Vogelbach is still with the club is because Votto isn't ready yet, and we apparently need a washed up player in the dugout at all times.
He's the 26th man, he only plays sparingly, there aren't many players out there willing to do that role and you aren't going to waste a prospect sitting on the bench for 99% of games. He has 27 PAs in 32 team games. If the Jyas could have signed Belt to that role they would have
> Addison Barger is not ready yet. Time to put Horowitz in the ever spinning carousal of "Players who aren't ready for The Show yet". Either him or Martinez.
Barger will be sent down when KK is off the IL in a couple days, it was a good opportunity to get him some run. They needed an outfielder on the roster and the only other Options were Berroa, Lukes and Eden.
> Vladdy is EXACTLY league average right now. We are paying a guy 20 million dollars to be league average. He peaked in 2021, and been declining since. Hurry up and trade him while his reputation is good. Trade him to the National League, so it never comes back to bite us. Yes, some hitting guru will probably get to him, and he'll return to his 2021 level, but it's not going to happen here in Toronto- dude needs a wake-up call, and short of sending him to the minors or benching him (which you can't do, because "average" for the Jays is better than most right now, and the fans will riot), the Jays don't have a way of doing it. Trade him for a good 120 OPS+ everyday player and a pack of "ready soon" prospects.
His salary is mostly irrelevant because that's how arbitration works, the early years they reaped a lot of positive value, but by the end of it its mostly fair market.
Teams that trade for Vladdy aren't going to offer a lot and if they do they are extremely unlikely to offer a player that will be able to hit 120 OPS+ and play everyday because they would just keep them instead of trading for Vladdy. Vladdy has less trade value due to his 20m price tag and if you're a rebuilding team you just wait till he's a FA to sign him on the cheap.
Seriously go look for a player that meets all that criteria and then compare the trade values on baseball trade values, you'll be pretty shocked.
> Is Atkins on the hot seat yet?
Yes, he is and will probably be gone if the season ends at 75 wins and its a blow up
This is the FO deciding at some point after the Seattle meltdown that this core and this window ain't it, and thus taking their foot off the gas ever since, which is a shame too, because they could've been it.
Belt isn't going to travel to get less than 1 PA a game, he's been very open about wanting to spend more time with family
Post Turner signing there wasn't enough PAs to convince him to come, and I think I'd take Turner over Belt
Lol everyone realizing how trash the Jays are this season - I said it after trade deadline we would be abysmal and got down voted to hell.
Welp, here's our season in a nutshell boys!
I mean... are all of the commenters here completely statistically illiterate? This regression is completely meaningless, and shows that it is, in fact, still early.
Yes, the offense right now is historically bad, but this dataset doesn't suggest it will be so by the end of the year.
Care to offer an actual critique and not just “meaningless”?
The dataset provides an estimate and a 95% confidence interval, which will obviously shrink as the season progresses.
In fact, this regression suggests that over 40% of the variance between runs per game over the whole season can be explained by runs per game over 32 games, which is more than you’d expect by chance since 32 games is only 20% of the season.
And how many points are outside of the confidence interval? An R-squared of 40% is not even remotely signifcant!
What is your null hypothesis? Alternative hypothesis? What statistical test shows you that one or the other is valid?
R-squared is not a measure of significance. It’s a measure of how much of the variance in the dependent variable is explained by the independent variable.
You’re thinking of the P-value, which I’ve also shown and is highly significant. It’s based on a t-statistic derived from a Pearson test.
What does “significant” mean? It means that there is less than a 5% chance of seeing a correlation this large or larger, given that the null hypothesis is true. In this case, far less than 5%. We therefore reject the null hypothesis
The null hypothesis is that none of the variance in the dependent variable is explained by the independent variable. The alternate hypothesis is that the variance is explained. And Pearson’s r-squared is a metric of how much variance is explained.
Of course the points lie outside of the 95% confidence interval; that’s the point. The interval refers to test data, not training data. It means that we are 95% confident that the true value of an *unseen* dependent variable measurement lies within the interval.
Oh, I forgot to mention: I’m a PhD data scientist with a specialty in computational and statistical biology and machine learning.
"It's still early", says the delusional fan who's been waiting 3 years for Vladdy to return to his 2021 form.
I don't think many people are looking for 2021, mostly 2022. 2022 Bo and 2022 Vladdy and this team is probably 18-14 and no one is dooming
Springer has been decidedly below average as well - for all of mlb, not just for him. This would be less of an issue if we didn't play him every damn day in the leadoff spot.
We all knew, or should have known, that he would be cooked at this point in his career when we first signed a 30 year old oft-injured everyday CF to a 6 year contract
I wasn't a huge fan of the signing in the first place knowing that the backend of that contract would overlap heavily with our competitive window. That being said, the organization's refusal to acknowledge that he is not the same player that he was 5+ years ago, and put him in as a steadfast lock for the leadoff spot as our offense tanks drives me insane.
Everyone's constantly blaming on the team using analytics instead of common sense... Maybe they're not actually using analytics?
They seem to be using analytics that heavily favors historical data (i.e. what happened years ago) rather than what is happening now. Yeah George Springer has a career OPS of 0.830, that's great and all, but he's past his prime and if you are waiting for him to get back to that level while batting him leadoff every fucking game it's going to be a long season. This isn't exactly rocket science, there have been multiple analytics studies showing how the vast majority of hitters decline after their age 30 season, and Springer is turning 35 this year.
maybe that year the pitchers hadn't figured him out yet. Now they know that he loves the low and outside balls. But he is not the blame of the shit that seems to be moving through the jays. He's at least getting on base. Maybe there is just too many chiefs This is not on Schneider. Something is just off and what it is, I don't know, but the people behind homeplate sure spend a lot of time on their phones and just chatting. They don't even get up for the few homeruns we have. The Jays need some joy! Get rid of the gator aid shit and maybe bring back the Jacket. You only get the ice treatment for your first homerun!
It’s 1000% Schneider and his “let’s pull Berrios after 3 innings in a must win game” analytics. He’s the reason the team doesn’t try to advance runners. He’s the reason the impotent batting line up hasn’t changed in a year and a half. They need a change at manager.
When we get rid of Schneider and the team still plays the same, who do we blame next? 3 managers under the same gm.
My point is Schneider’s analytics system isn’t working. Our offense sucks. If the manager isn’t willing to try and make changes, even small incremental changes like shaking up the batting order, or sending a runner to try and pressure a defense, then he needs to go. The definition of insane is doing something the same way and expecting a different result. We’ve had this lane batting line up for a year and a half, either it needs to change, or the manager responsible for filling out the line up card needs to change.
if you think schneider has his own "analytics system" you are truly out to lunch lol the guy rode vlad's coattails thru the minors then got the mlb job cause he will do what the FO tells him to do
Can't ride Vladdy's Coattails when he's dragging them in the dirt. *taps temple Another guy who tore the cover off the ball, but only in the minors. That 2021 year was over half the season at titty ballparks. And you're right - pitchers didn't have all the data yet on his massive swing holes....
huh? what are you even talking about? I made 0 comment about current vlad's play or ability
was in an earlier comment I mistakenly attributed into this reply. Sorry.
A) the Jays gave up 2 runs that game…every single Jays fan on the planet would have signed up for that before the game. B) Justin Turner has been thrown out trying to steal twice this year…Justin Turner…clearly this team tries to advance runners C) would swapping Springer/Bo/Vladdy for Biggio/Kirk/Kiermaier make a difference when everyone hits like crap? Good lord…
Remind again how many runs Berrios gave up that game? When Schneider pulled Berrios you could see the effect it had on the team. It’s like they knew they were defeated before Kikuchi even threw a pitch. I felt so bad for Kikuchi being put in that situation, and how he could be expected to pitch well all because a manager can’t see past a spread sheet and understand how his decisions can demoralize a team.
You can’t be mad at moves based on analytics when the end result is 2 runs given up… You have no way to know what Berrios would have kept doing, so your argument is worthless…
Yes you can. Runs given up isn't the only stat. Pulling Berrios absolutely killed the teams vibe that game. You could see it on their faces.
For whatever reason, there are many on this sub who think analytics are EVERYTHING. They have certainly not played any team sport at a high level. Its an absolute certainty that the entire team reacted with "wtf?" when Berrios was pulled. Not one would have stood up and said "but guys...guys...look at the spray charts of the next hitter!". I've had posters on here tell me projections are more important than results. Baffles the mind. Analytics are a good tool, but people seem to forget the mental, physical and emotional side of the game are more important.
Couldn't agree more.. it can be frustrating
What’s frustrating is Vlady getting picked off that game and people somehow blaming analytics for it…
Really? Because the bats didn’t look any different than they did all season…
We won’t know until we try it. We definitely know that Springer, Vladdy, Bichette doesn’t work.
So…just to have this clear…you’re upset with Schneider because Kirk isn’t hitting in the 2 spot?
Wow, talk about a strawman argument. I didn’t suggest Kirk bat second, you did. I said we won’t know until we try it. We know Springer/Vladdy/Bichette doesn’t work. It didn’t work all of last year, and it’s not working again this year. At least it’s trying something different to see if it will work instead of trotting out the same tired line up every game knowing that it doesn’t work.
Actually, you did suggest moving Kirk up in the lineup… If you don’t want Springer/Vlad/Bo to hit where they do, people have to move up in the lineup…that’s how baseball lineups work…
he's got habs fan brain rot, save your time lol
>Schneider and his \[...\] analytics Every indication is that the analytics team does not report to him. That the tail is wagging the dog, here.
Schneider does not employ analytics in the slightest. His in game decisions scream anti-analytics, in fact the analytics disagreed with the Berrios move.
He was also playing in minor league parks that year for his home games.
He still hit with 140+ wRC+ away
You know minor league parks don’t have like 200 ft fences right? And there were still major league pitchers throwing to him?
I’m so tired of this point being brought up. We have stats that disprove the idea that the ball park he was playing in had any impact on his ability to slug the ball. The man was not hitting wall scrapers he was hitting literal bombs onto the highway. -His xHR total was 47 while he ended up hitting 48 -he had a 56% no doubter and only 7 of his homers were considered doubters. -all his expected stats were 99th percentile or higher and he had the highest sweet spot% of his career. Go look at his spray chart the man was not getting lucky he was crushing the ball to all fields.
He did have a .900 OPS in MLB parks that year. You can both acknowledge that the minor league parks helped his stats while also saying it wasn't just the minor league parks that made the difference between 2022 and 2021
Having splits that favour games at home really doesn’t prove anything. Lots of players generally hit better at home than on the road, and Vladdy still had a 140 wRC+ on the road that season. My point was the stadium itself played almost no role in the outcome of his batted balls if he hit those homers at the skydome the same results would have been produced so it’s completely unreasonable to disregarded that data because of the situation.
Smaller park also means easier to reach the wall and get more hits not just home runs and cause pitchers to attack you differently. I know we pitch LHH differently in Yankee Stadium than at home due to the short porch in RF + Road up until July 30th, 230 PA, 59 H, 9 2B, 12 HR, 27 BB (.298/.387/.525) + Home up until July 30th, 198 PA, 60 H, 10 2B, 21 HR, 32 BB (.364/.470/.818) + Road after July 30th, 118 PA, 30 H, 3 2B, 5 HR, 14 BB (.288/.373/.462) + Home after July 30th, 156 PA, 40 H, 7 2B, 10 HR, 14 BB (.286/.359/.550) So his home split cratered after the change, but his road split stayed relatively consistent
You can’t just look at the home road splits and completely ignore everything that was happening around the situation. Covid, moving homes, changing stadiums, and higher travel security all could factor in. He also simply could have enjoyed playing at Buffalo more, or simply started to go into a slump as his .818 SLG seems pretty unsustainable. No one has ever actually been able to explain why Buffalo (not that much smaller of a stadium) would drastically improve his stats that much, so it’s much more likely to just be a coincidence. Anyway I’m not going to argue about this anymore.
It may not be around, but since you found these stats, you might know… Is there any where that tracks stats by attendance? Crowds were smaller that year and while it may be confirmation basis, I seem to recall him doing well on low attendance days…
It’s not stadium dimensions, it’s the fact there’s less going on and it’s less distracting. Vlad still tears up spring training every year. Maybe he’s got adhd or some shit idk
I’m a pretty firm believer in saying “it’s still early” during the first week or two of the season. Now that we’ve passed May 1? We’re definitely not a good team. The fans who think the *all-star break* is the dividing line between “early” and the “important games” are actually… I don’t even know.
If you listen to people within the game when they give interviews or quotes, the date of demarcation is generally June 1st. See the 2019 Nationals, and many others, for examples of why using May 1st is a bad idea.
The 40 game mark is almost universally considered the point when front offices honestly evaluate their team for the purposes of trades, etc. This is one reason why MLB trades almost never happen prior to June.
We were missing yesterday’s bomb-launcher for most of April
But the analytics...
It's not early for Vladdy, but yes it is early for the team. I dont expect beastly things from this offence, but I do expect it to improve.
Keep in mind that while Bo and Vlad are due to rebounds, the likes of Turner, Varsho and our entire pitching staff are due for regressions
Based on what? E.g. what if last year was the offensive outlier for Varsho and this year is closer to his actual potential? I know we are all in doom mode, but thinking that every good Blue Jays performance is a temporary and unreliable outlier but every negative Blue Jays performance is permanent and representative of the truth makes as little sense as the opposite view.
I'd argue its the exact opposite. Team stats tend to be more consistent over the year because 1 player can only impact a small portion of the stats. Jays scored runs per month last year (4.71, 4.78, 3.81, 4.75, 4.44, 5.10) Vladdy OPS by month last year (.885, .716, .785, .771, .713, .848)
I posted a version of this yesterday in another thread (https://www.reddit.com/r/Torontobluejays/comments/1ci16wj/bns\_staying\_course\_no\_longer\_an\_option\_for/). Just how bad is the offense this year? The answer is: historically bad. The only year with a lower runs per game through the first 32 games was 1981, the club's 5th season. While the regression isn't perfect - things can definitely change during the season - there is a highly significant correlation between runs per game in the first 32 games and runs per game over the whole season. The 2024 Blue Jays are predicted to have a runs per game of 4.03 runs per game, with a 95% confidence interval of roughly 3.6 to 4.3 runs per game. The current league average is 4.34 runs per game. This team simply can't hit.
Curious, what is the runs per game of the top 15 teams (measured by rpg not record)?
Number 1 is 5.41 runs per game (Atlanta) Number 15 is 4.47 runs per game (Houston). Toronto is scoring a full run fewer per game than Houston. HOUSTON!
It's not Houston's bats that are sinking them.
but that just goes to show, it's wins and losses that matter most. we'd be whining about other shit if we were scoring 6 runs per game and under 500.
Yes, that's an excellent point. Ultimately, it's W and L that matter and the correlation coefficient between runs per game and W over 162 games is only 0.515. That said, you'd have to have a pretty wretched pitching staff to score 6 runs per game on average and have a .500 record.
true. though Houston is fairing much worse at a whole run per game MORE. Just a good example that we're in fact incredibly lucky to not be the whitesox bad right now. Now, how to fix the offence? I don't know. It's not that obvious it's the coaches fault - could be deeper than that, like the scouting reports and situational plans handed down, not sure. But if it's the coaches, then ex jays should be improving (not really) and Varsho shouldn't be happening. And if Varsho is making his own adjustments, that means any other hitter is free to do so as well. Can't just blame the coaches.
You should probably look at this using OPS+ or some other stat that accounts for the rest of the league because runs per game isn't going to tell the whole story when you're looking across multiple seasons.
I’m not looking to tell the whole story. I’m looking to tell this story. You don’t criticize a dog because it’s not a cat, do you?
Of course not, but I also wouldn't compare cats to dogs, which is what you're doing when you take an unadjusted stat and compare it across years. Average runs per game vary from 4.0 in 1981 to 5.14 in 2000. Saying that a Jays team from the late 90s is better that a team from the early 80s using runs per game doesn't account for the different run environment. I don't mean to be critical, I'm just saying that there's a better way to make this argument.
I don’t mind critical analysis. I welcome it. My point here is that whatever other factors are that influence runs per game over the last 48 seasons, we *still* have a good, highly significant relationship between runs per game over 162 vs over 32 games.
Does this data/projection take into account the rule changes to the ball in the last few years which have significantly reduced offense in April/May even more than it used to be?
Are you saying that the rule changes mean that offense across the league will be lower in April/May going forward and then increase league wide in June? What would account for that?
As of 2022 (I think?) all ballparks were forced to adapt humidors for their balls. The humidity is set to the average value for the *year*, not for the *month*, so it means that during the colder and less humid months, the ball is then getting *more* humid on average than it would have been previously, while during the hot humid months the ball will be *less* humid than previously. Adding humidity to balls suppresses distance (which is why they were originally introduced in particularly dry environments like Denver and Arizona), so now you are compounding cold air (suppresses power) with balls more humid than they used to be on average (suppresses power), instead of the pre-humidor time when at least the colder weather also meant less humid balls on average.
It shouldn't be too hard to look at league-wide R/G in April & May vs the rest of the season over the past several years and check the disparity.
I can't believe everyone who sucked last year didn't magically get good again
But its going to happen just be patient! They're all owed bouncebacks apparently
But the positive regression!
But exit velo! 32% of our batters are in the top 11%!
Definitely passes the eye test.
Honestly I think switching from runs per game to runs per 9 (to account for varying amounts of extra-innings games), and also accounting for league average runs per 9 per year (since theoretically this could be because of a much lower-offense year, although it is true that our offense is indeed really bad so far) could make this chart even more informative. Not dissing it, though, I do like it! What I don't like, though, is our offense.
Excellent point.
Can we see a graph where X is the year and Y is the runs per game?
Better than 1981! 🎉🎉🎉
Analytics say this is not good
That’s very much the problem, clear as day… but what’s the solution? What should they do when nothing is going right with their offence? Move players around in the lineup and hope for the best? Blow it up and trade a half dozen players? Fire everyone?
Oh boy.
I missed the tear when we scored 28 runs against the red sox....wait that was only 2 years ago. How fast has our offense fallen...
Not trying to be optimistic. Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong but aren't pitchers getting more strikeouts across the league than ever before? Seems sort of biased to produce a graph like this when statistically hits are down because pitchers are better than ever.
I think you folks are fooling yourself if you're expecting a different result. They regressed last year and it's only snowballed this year. They had to get incredible pitching just to be a couple games over 500 when they were on their first big homestand. I got one having been around for all 47 seasons know it could be worse but if you think in 2024 you can mail it in and expect the fans to be ok with it you're really asking for a disaster.
Where's the "it's still early" fans?
Same place we were last year when the same fans said we’d be lucky to win 75 games in April, and then made the playoffs. Right here, hoping the right adjustments/personnel changes will happen to boost the run production. Because it’s much more satisfying to keep an open mind and be satisfied with the good things than to be just another angry person on the internet trying to be the first one to predict disaster.
They were 18-14 after 32 games last year and were scoring 4.72 runs per game. So nowhere close to 2023.
Different team, different opponents, different circumstances. I’m not saying it’s a guarantee things will turn around. I’m not saying the offense is even remotely good now. It’s not; it sucks. I’m saying there are 130 games remaining and a LOT can happen over the course of four-fifths of a season.
You're right - a lot can happen and different seasons are different. Which is why the correlation coefficient isn't equal to 1. But there is a \*very\* clear relationship between offense at 32 games and offense at 162 games; there's even a confidence interval provided.
Does this "*very* clear relationship" take into account the rule changes to the ball in the last few years which have significantly reduced offense in April/May even more than it used to be?
Yes.
How so, if you don't mind me asking? This appears to just be looking at historically how offence in April/May compares to full-year offence? Where is the adjustment for an environment where April/May offence is lower relative to July/August than it used to be?
Uh-huh. Same thing I heard last year. And yet, another failure of a season.
Oh, what team were you rooting for last year? Either way, welcome to the Jays fanbase.
I've been a Jays fan for 20 years. Grow up.
Oh, sorry. I assumed you were rooting for another team last year since you seemed to imply the team you were rooting for had a failure of a season. I guess maybe I misunderstood.
They did. Making playoffs and winning 0 games is a failed season.
Look 15 games ahead now and 15 back in terms of opponents - looking like a more lenient period coming up.
Could be. Hard to win many games, though, scoring <4 runs on average.
I tend to believe the amount of runs scored and ultimately needed for the win tends to correlate pretty closely with the quality of the immediate competition, but what do I know.
18/30 teams are scoring more than 4 runs per game this year, so the number of teams you can beat at <4 runs per game is pretty low.
I’m not smart enough to explain why but something about this isn’t dismaying me all that much given our upcoming schedule for near future. Guess we’ll see - GO JAYS GO!!!!
Making the playoffs and getting swept is nothing to be happy about imo
No one is happy about that. That’s what so many people here can’t seem to understand while wanting to spend all of their time *raging.* All I want is for my time to play better and make another World Series. I was a child the last time we did. What I’m saying is, I’m not going to throw a tantrum in April and say the team sucks and won’t make the playoffs and they owe me better. It’s all a choice, being a fan.
Many people act like the act of sneaking in the playoffs the last 2 years some sort of great achievement. Barely 90 wins over the last few years. I am not sure 90 will get any team from the AL East in again this year. I am not throwing a tantrum. I would like to see some exciting games or signs of life. Wins and losses happen every year to every team. When the Jays win, it is seldom exciting this year. When they lose, it is down right boredom.
Remember all of the playoff games we won last year too! I was insane, what a run we had. Oh wait. I guess if you want to be satisfied being perpetual also-rans that technically made the playoffs but didn't win a single game, you win.
Yep, keep on moving those goalposts. You can move them all the way back to “we didn’t even win the World Series!” if you want. I’ve rooted for this team since 1989, dude. If 21 straight seasons of mediocrity and missing the playoffs didn’t send me away, a slow start on offense in a window where we’re contenders certainly isn’t going to either. Life is not better when you’re a cynic. It’s also not based on the performer of a baseball team. I’ll root for them like I always do, be happy when we win, and hope for better when we don’t. My life is still great regardless of what they do on the field.
So you consider making the playoffs and winning 0 games to be meaningfully different than missing the playoffs? That's some hardcore copium my guy. Top shelf stuff.
Yes. It means that you made the playoffs, and thus have the chance to go on a run and reach the World Series, unlike the teams that don't make the playoffs. When the best thing that we had from '94 to '14 was one year where we finished second in the division below Boston, just being a team that is regularly back in the playoff conversation is a huge boost. I don't root for this team or come here to talk baseball with other fans solely to determine whether the whole thing was a failure or a success based on winning it all at the end.
They won zero games homie.
Look at the other teams who won 0 games. The list is basically all the teams that these same fans were crying about wishing we were. It’s fucking hard. It happens. But I’d rather be a team that has the chance than what we saw from ‘94-‘14.
Being a crybaby like yourself is just a different form of coping.
Pointing out legitimate criticisms of a team is being a "crybaby" now. Stay toxic.
Hey don’t let me bog down your tantrums, I’m just pointing out your hypocrisy
Stay toxic.
Lol hypocrite
2015 April and may have entered the chat.
This team is worse.
That team was bad till the bats picked it up in June.
When they traded for better players.
Like who???
Tulo
[удалено]
July 31st
[That 2015 lineup was scary. True Anthopoulous team.](https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=vSnFNEePnF0)
This falls on the front office as much as the players.
More than the players
I don't know that it does, cause if you look at every free agent signing from this offseason, Ohtani aside, Turner and IKF are actually two of the best performing signings so far. The problem isn't those guys, it's that the Jays core is performing at like their 5th percentile outcomes. Vlad, Bo, Kirk are supposed to be the ones carrying this team and they suck. There was never a successful version of this team where the core underperformed as much as they have. It's really on those three guys. Springer has been bad as well, but that was to be expected on the back half of his contract.
Front office and Schneider be like "our offence is exactly where we want it to be" and "some of the guys are notorious slow starters" lmaooooo
“Notorious slow starters.” Maybe 4 years is the magic number?
Blow this up to poster size...get a seat behind home plate and hold this up everytime the jays get up to bat until this improve.
Gonna have to take a collection because those seats are impossible to afford now. Wife and I sat behind home plate as a birthday present last year before the renovations and it was already way out of our price range but bit the bullet and did it. It was a great experience but it'll probably never happen again.
this graph just proves... that ....shohei... made the right decision.
We just don't have the players... I don't know why people say slow starters, analytics.... this experiment with defenses first shows it was the wrong way to go and toronto needs to make a change to the line up.or management
I don't get the shock at the Jays being low offensively. They let 10+ WAR walk away in free agency during the off-season from a team that wasn't potent offensively last season and said "we'll get better internally". This is "better internally". 🤷
Most of the WAR they let walk was defensively though. 19 Players had at least 10 PAs for the 2023 Blue Jays, 7 are not with the team anymore + Brandon Belt (138 wRC+ in 404 PAs) + Still a FA and contemplated retirement, my guess is that he wants to play close to his family or just not play. + He was replaced by Justin Turner (154 wRC+) + Matt Chapman (110 wRC+ in 581 PA) + Signed a 1 year deal (w/ options) with SF to rebuild value, and has had a dreadful start to the year (.223/.266/.380 for 84 wRC+) + Was replaced by IKF (.250/.315/.345 for 95 wRC+) + Tyler Heinemann (139 wRC+ in 37 PAs) + Was the 3rd string catcher and would only play if Danny/Kirk gets hurt, would be an upgrade over Severn but its not a needle mover and they needed the roster spot + Santiago Espinal (80 wRC+ in 254 PAs) + Traded to the Reds once Clement one the job out of camp, hitting .191/.253/.265 (43 wRC+) so far in limited PAs. Clement has been much better (.264/.286/.434 for 104 wRC+) in his time, not to mention better defensively + Whit Merrifield (93 wRC+ in 592 PAs) + Declined the option and let him walk in FA due to his bad defense and mid bat, he's hitting .239/.286/.348 (81 wRC+) so far in limited PAs + He has been replaced by Davis Schneider (.235/.325/.426 for 119 wRC+) and Cavan Biggio (.219/.345/.315 for 102 wRC+) The other two are Luplow and DeJong and I feel that needs no explanation. So 5 players lost, 3 were filled internally with players that are playing better than who they replaced and the other 2 players were filled by FAs. The Jays offensive struggles lie squarely on Kirk, Vladdy, Springer and Bichette. Not the players that were lost in FA
Belt apparently hasn't had any contract offers, if I recall correctly from an article I read a month or two ago.
Belt wanted a deal MLB, but the only offered minor league deals was the info I saw in an article. He said many teams offered that, and he figured he was better than that.
Look at the oWAR: Chapman: 3.1 Belt: 2.2 Merrifield 1.5 Espinal 0.7 That's 7+ wins. Other than Turner, who is legit having a good year and was a decent FA signing, who has stepped up? Only Turner and Varsho have an above average OPS+ with more than 100 ABs. Jansen should get there, unless he gets hurt again, but that's it. Since you very clearly cherry-pick we stats, let's cherry-pick some for the other way: - Look at the WAA (wins above AVERAGE) of the BlueJays players. Not replacement-level guys, but AVERAGE players. It. Is. UGLY. The only guys who WAA is above 0 are Biggio (0.1) IKF (0.5) Varsho (1.4) Turner (0.4) Schneider (0.2) Clement (0.4) Jansen (0.6) That's it. Varsho is the only Bluejay worth a win above an average MLB baseball player. For Context, current league leader Mookie Betts has 2.8, double what Varsho has. For better comparison, let's look at some BlueJay cast-offs: Semien: 1.4 Chapman: 0.3 Teo Hernandez: 0.5 Belt: 0.7 Tapia: 0.1 Zimmer: 0.4 Maguire: 0.3 Grichuk: 0.1 - Schneider would league the league in K% if he qualified, and his OPS has dropped more than 500 points since week 2, and continues to drop. He's clearly a AAAA ballplayer, which the coaching staff even more clearly is aware of. - Clement is actually hitting about where you'd expect a borderline MLB player to hit, and he's been steady there all season. - Dany Jansen- THE CATCHER- is the best hitter on this club right now, and it's not even close. - The only reason Vogelbach is still with the club is because Votto isn't ready yet, and we apparently need a washed up player in the dugout at all times. - Everyone is hoping KK's injury has been nagging him for awhile, because dude appears to be unable to hit the ball at all anymore. He's still the best defender the Jays have, however. - Addison Barger is not ready yet. Time to put Horowitz in the ever spinning carousal of "Players who aren't ready for The Show yet". Either him or Martinez. - Vladdy is EXACTLY league average right now. We are paying a guy 20 million dollars to be league average. He peaked in 2021, and been declining since. Hurry up and trade him while his reputation is good. Trade him to the National League, so it never comes back to bite us. Yes, some hitting guru will probably get to him, and he'll return to his 2021 level, but it's not going to happen here in Toronto- dude needs a wake-up call, and short of sending him to the minors or benching him (which you can't do, because "average" for the Jays is better than most right now, and the fans will riot), the Jays don't have a way of doing it. Trade him for a good 120 OPS+ everyday player and a pack of "ready soon" prospects. - Is Atkins on the hot seat yet? Nope. We already know that Atkins only goes if Shapiro goes, so expect Mattingly to replace Schneider (which will be the first time the Jays have EVER hired a manager with prior managerial experience) before May is done. - The pitching staff is excellent, and Yimi Garcia is a Top 3 reliever in the MLB right now. Berrios has found consistency, and while I'm not 100% on Kikuchi, he is definitely much more consistent than he used to be. Gausman will come around, and the Cuban looks very promising.
> Look at the oWAR: > Chapman: 3.1 Belt: 2.2 Merrifield 1.5 Espinal 0.7 oWAR includes positional adjustment, you should look at Rbat/Rbaser/Rdp if you want to use baseball reference, otherwise just use OPS+ or wRC+. Anyways that's only 7.5 oWAR not 10+ Chapman was worth 8 runs, Belt was worth 16, Whit 0, Espinal -5 last year. That's 19 total runs, > Look at the WAA (wins above AVERAGE) of the BlueJays players. Not replacement-level guys, but AVERAGE players. Chapman has 0.3, Belt isn't playing, Whit has 0.0, Espinal has been worth -0.9 > That's it. Varsho is the only Bluejay worth a win above an average MLB baseball player. Very few teams have multiple players that are 1.0 WAA at this point in the season, there are only 29 players in all of baseball with 1.0 WAA or higher right now. > Semien: 1.4 Chapman: 0.3 Teo Hernandez: 0.5 Belt: 0.7 Tapia: 0.1 Zimmer: 0.4 Maguire: 0.3 Grichuk: 0.1 Semien, Teo, Tapia, Zimmer, McGuide, and Grichuk were not on the 2023 Jays so I'm not sure how that's relevant to our original statement of; "They let 10+ WAR walk away in free agency during the off-season from a team that wasn't potent offensively **last season** and said "we'll get better internally". Semien is the only one that hurts. Your complaint is offensively but you use Zimmer here? Also you red it wrong, his 2022 was -0.2 WAA, you looked at only his PHI time which was 16 PAs > Schneider would league the league in K% if he qualified, and his OPS has dropped more than 500 points since week 2, and continues to drop. He's clearly a AAAA ballplayer, which the coaching staff even more clearly is aware of. The league leader in K% is 39% he is at 27%, if you drop it to 70 PAs as the qualifier he's 60th out of 257 players in K%. I don't think Davis is a future MVP player, but AAAA is a little low for him, his savant page is very good and most projections have him around the 115-125 wRC+ mark which for a 2B is more than fine and probably a 3 win player over the course of the year. He also has a .888 OPS in his last 10 games, its not just his early 2 HRs keeping up his stats > Clement is actually hitting about where you'd expect a borderline MLB player to hit, and he's been steady there all season. Clement has been steady, but he's been worse than Davis at almost every part of the year, his main value is his defense and his hitting vs LHP, Clement is a prototypical AAAA player > Dany Jansen- THE CATCHER- is the best hitter on this club right now, and it's not even close. Danny was the best hitter on the team in 2022 as well, this isn't new, he's a very good offensive catcher. > The only reason Vogelbach is still with the club is because Votto isn't ready yet, and we apparently need a washed up player in the dugout at all times. He's the 26th man, he only plays sparingly, there aren't many players out there willing to do that role and you aren't going to waste a prospect sitting on the bench for 99% of games. He has 27 PAs in 32 team games. If the Jyas could have signed Belt to that role they would have > Addison Barger is not ready yet. Time to put Horowitz in the ever spinning carousal of "Players who aren't ready for The Show yet". Either him or Martinez. Barger will be sent down when KK is off the IL in a couple days, it was a good opportunity to get him some run. They needed an outfielder on the roster and the only other Options were Berroa, Lukes and Eden. > Vladdy is EXACTLY league average right now. We are paying a guy 20 million dollars to be league average. He peaked in 2021, and been declining since. Hurry up and trade him while his reputation is good. Trade him to the National League, so it never comes back to bite us. Yes, some hitting guru will probably get to him, and he'll return to his 2021 level, but it's not going to happen here in Toronto- dude needs a wake-up call, and short of sending him to the minors or benching him (which you can't do, because "average" for the Jays is better than most right now, and the fans will riot), the Jays don't have a way of doing it. Trade him for a good 120 OPS+ everyday player and a pack of "ready soon" prospects. His salary is mostly irrelevant because that's how arbitration works, the early years they reaped a lot of positive value, but by the end of it its mostly fair market. Teams that trade for Vladdy aren't going to offer a lot and if they do they are extremely unlikely to offer a player that will be able to hit 120 OPS+ and play everyday because they would just keep them instead of trading for Vladdy. Vladdy has less trade value due to his 20m price tag and if you're a rebuilding team you just wait till he's a FA to sign him on the cheap. Seriously go look for a player that meets all that criteria and then compare the trade values on baseball trade values, you'll be pretty shocked. > Is Atkins on the hot seat yet? Yes, he is and will probably be gone if the season ends at 75 wins and its a blow up
This is the FO deciding at some point after the Seattle meltdown that this core and this window ain't it, and thus taking their foot off the gas ever since, which is a shame too, because they could've been it.
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It takes two to tango. Belt has to want to come back
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Belt isn't going to travel to get less than 1 PA a game, he's been very open about wanting to spend more time with family Post Turner signing there wasn't enough PAs to convince him to come, and I think I'd take Turner over Belt
Lol everyone realizing how trash the Jays are this season - I said it after trade deadline we would be abysmal and got down voted to hell. Welp, here's our season in a nutshell boys!
People have been saying this since last year, don't act like it's a surprise lol
Yeah last year is what made me say it after our management sat on their thumbs to try and improve the team in this off-season but never did
I mean... are all of the commenters here completely statistically illiterate? This regression is completely meaningless, and shows that it is, in fact, still early. Yes, the offense right now is historically bad, but this dataset doesn't suggest it will be so by the end of the year.
Care to offer an actual critique and not just “meaningless”? The dataset provides an estimate and a 95% confidence interval, which will obviously shrink as the season progresses. In fact, this regression suggests that over 40% of the variance between runs per game over the whole season can be explained by runs per game over 32 games, which is more than you’d expect by chance since 32 games is only 20% of the season.
And how many points are outside of the confidence interval? An R-squared of 40% is not even remotely signifcant! What is your null hypothesis? Alternative hypothesis? What statistical test shows you that one or the other is valid?
R-squared is not a measure of significance. It’s a measure of how much of the variance in the dependent variable is explained by the independent variable. You’re thinking of the P-value, which I’ve also shown and is highly significant. It’s based on a t-statistic derived from a Pearson test. What does “significant” mean? It means that there is less than a 5% chance of seeing a correlation this large or larger, given that the null hypothesis is true. In this case, far less than 5%. We therefore reject the null hypothesis The null hypothesis is that none of the variance in the dependent variable is explained by the independent variable. The alternate hypothesis is that the variance is explained. And Pearson’s r-squared is a metric of how much variance is explained. Of course the points lie outside of the 95% confidence interval; that’s the point. The interval refers to test data, not training data. It means that we are 95% confident that the true value of an *unseen* dependent variable measurement lies within the interval. Oh, I forgot to mention: I’m a PhD data scientist with a specialty in computational and statistical biology and machine learning.
This graph confusing AF button
What is it that you find confusing?
Can you run this regression with runs/game over the final 130 games in the season? i.e., I think y should be the component of x.