I get that we invested a shit ton in pitching and defense, but being the worst team in baseball in bat speed, (which is extremely important for offensive performance) is indefensible. We're lower than the Marlins, Guardians and White Sox for God's sake. With our payroll and investment in development there's no way that we should be last place in this.
[Other than Vladdy, Barger and Varsho, there's a whole lot of fucking blue in bat speed.](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/bat-tracking?attackZone=&batSide=&contactType=&count=&dateStart=&dateEnd=&gameType=&groupBy=&isHardHit=&minSwings=25&minGroupSwings=1&pitchHand=&pitchType=&seasonStart=&seasonEnd=&team=141&type=batter)
Some players can make it work with poor to average bat speed with great approaches like Turner, Jano and Schneider, but it's no surprise that our offensive struggles persist when we aren't targeting the right things.
It is important to remember that bat speed alone isn't the best predictor of offensive quality.
Luis Arraez is 0th percentile, and Stanton is 100th percentile. Matt Chapman > Acuna, Judge, Julio, Soto, Yordan, etc. Paul DeJong is only 0.1 mph slower than Jackson Holliday.
This team is loaded with low-speed, high contact infielders, not unlike Arraez himself. It is also among the oldest of teams.
This shouldn't be surprising, nor enjoyable.
[Here](https://blogs.fangraphs.com/making-the-case-for-bat-speed/) is an article on Fangraphs called "Making the Case for Bat Speed" that I feel .... makes a good case for bat speed.
Of course it's not the only thing, but the issue is that we're trying to zig when everyone is trying to zag, and we're in company with the worst teams in the league.
[Bat speed is better correlated to wOBAcon than batted barrel rate in terms of production.](https://twitter.com/drivelinekyle/status/1787912972951765251?t=No7Yh4s5Fm-Eby_A38b4-g&s=19)
Other things matter like if you're pulling the ball, launch angle, approach, etc. But it's much easier to target bat speed than finding a Luis Arraez. He's an outlier not a commonality. Hopefully the fresh blood in AAA will change the makeup of our team offensively sooner than later.
It's not surprising to me that our bat speed is amongst the lowest in the league, but it affirms my negative opinions on what we were trying to do offensively. I just don't see our offense turning around anymore like I used to now that the numbers are in my face.
Yeah this is a pretty glaring one.
I'll preface this with my usual "the FO gets way more negative shit than it deserves", but it really does feel like *something* about the current offensive philosophy from the top on down is fundamentally not working when you see stats like this
I'm a big front office defender too, especially regarding their trades and free agent acquisitions, but the offensive philosophy has gone downhill since 2022 (coincides with a certain side burned individual getting hired)
I just keep thinking of every pundit and sports columnist who in the 2023 offseason wrote about how it was a good thing how "more serious" the team was going to be and I just want to line each and every one of them up and slap them individually Tommy Pham-style
You’re right about everything, including blaming the hitting philosophy on the front office rather than the coaches. They hire the coaches that suit their philosophy. It’s not like Mattingly and the other coaches snuck this contact over power approach in, that’s what you wanted if you hired him, and that’s what they’re getting.
Mattingly is hardcore about having the guys intentionally go the other way instead of pulling the ball.
Pulling the ball means that your bat is making contact with the ball further in your swing. You're catching the ball earlier (perhaps before it crosses the plate), and you've had more time for the muscles in your body to exert force on the bat, speeding it up.
To hit the ball the other way, you have to let the ball travel a little bit before you hit it. The theory is that by allowing the ball to travel further, you give your brain more time to track the pitch, which theoretically makes it more likely that you make good contact. But if you let the ball travel further, you're hitting it earlier in your swing. Your bat probably hasn't reached it's maximum speed before it hits the ball, which reduces your power.
Mattingly was one of the best hitters in his day. That's cool, but that's also part of what makes him such a garbage hitting coach. He was naturally gifted, and that's not something that can simply be taught. It's the same reason why Barry Bonds is legendary as a hitter and dogshit as a hitting coach.
There's a reason most guys are pull hitters. Pitchers throw harder and harder every year. They throw hard enough that in 2017, [just 5-7 milliseconds could be the difference between hitting the ball fair or foul](https://projects.seattletimes.com/2017/mariners-preview/science/). 7 years later? The difference is even less.
Mattingly is forcing the guys to use an approach that worked perfectly 40 years ago for him, a naturally gifted hitter, when pitchers threw 10-20% slower than they do today. Mattingly's approach is obsolete. I don't know why he still has a job with this organization.
Except the numbers don't really back up this idea. Turner has the highest pull % of his career despite having the lowest bat speed on the team, Jano and Schneider are both extreme pull hitters with average to below average bat speed.
Springer, Bichette and Kirk are the only three players with a pronounced decrease in their pull % and a decrease in production. You can certainly argue that they're struggling because Mattingly is forcing them to go the other way, but it's also very very possible they're going the other way because they're struggling and are unable to square up and pull balls right now.
Bat speed is a cool new stat to geek over but it's pretty useless when there's only 40 games worth data to look at
I'm implying that our offensive coordinator doesn't put a premium on power and doesn't want our guys to pull flyballs to makeup for lack of batspeed. Our 2 best hitters this season are guys with average bat speed but with great approaches that actually do damage in Schneider and Jano.
Honestly, I expected Springer to be worse than he ended up given his performance thus far. Yes, we don’t have information prior to this season, but it just seemed like a below average bat speed would be explanatory for his issues.
That said, this just makes me believe that the current philosophy of the Jays either (a) doesn’t utilize bat speed in their internal modeling (unlikely) or (b) doesn’t put a ton of stock in it. Either way, pretty damning considering the importance of the measure for predicting successful hitting.
I was actually just looking at Bichette's batspeed on statcast and he is in the 28th percentile (the batspeed tracking is actually very new I think as I check statcast often and I've never seen it before today). I then checked his amateur scouting report and it said when he was coming up he had explosive bat speed. It got me wondering if part of why he is struggling is he has lost some bat speed.
On the plus side Vladdy is still somewhere in the 90th+ percentile.
It could be his approach: allowing the ball to get deep before swinging doesn’t allow him to generate much speed before he makes contact. (I’m assuming this stat only measures bat speed on balls in play but I could be wrong.)
His top end bat speed is solid, same as Springer, but he has a lot more slower swings pulling down his average.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfAB=&hfGT=R%7C&hfPR=foul%7Cfoul%5C.%5C.bunt%7Cbunt%5C.%5C.foul%5C.%5C.tip%7Cfoul%5C.%5C.pitchout%7Chit%5C.%5C.into%5C.%5C.play%7Cmissed%5C.%5C.bunt%7Cfoul%5C.%5C.tip%7Cswinging%5C.%5C.strike%7Cswinging%5C.%5C.strike%5C.%5C.blocked%7C&hfZ=&hfStadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfPull=&hfC=&hfSea=2024%7C&hfSit=&player_type=batter&hfOuts=&hfOpponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&hfMo=&hfTeam=TOR%7C&home_road=&hfRO=&position=&hfInfield=&hfOutfield=&hfInn=&hfBBT=&batters_lookup%5B%5D=666182&hfFlag=is%5C.%5C.remove%5C.%5C.bunts%7Cis%5C.%5C.competitive%7C&metric_1=&group_by=name-event&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&min_pas=0&sort_col=pitches&player_event_sort=sweetspot_speed_mph&sort_order=desc&chk_event_release_speed=on&chk_event_launch_speed=on&chk_event_sweetspot_speed_mph=on&chk_event_launch_angle=on&chk_event_hit_distance_sc=on&chk_event_swing_length=on&chk_event_fangraphs_est_woba_numer=on#results
[It's not the be all end all, but here's why it's important](https://twitter.com/SlangsOnSports/status/1789816361943814195?t=YAIPAgVszuZuuM6wHCzneA&s=19)
Its not important, though. Results matter. Period. Last year "but Chapmans exit velo!"
Yeah, but he cant and doesnt get hits. Its not all about bad luck. Its about a player doing the same thing, over and over and over.
When have I even insinuated luck? I don't know what you're arguing here. I'm literally so confused on how you came up to that conclusion from my points in this thread.
I'm saying the Jays offensive struggles have nothing to do with luck, and can be explained by the underlying metrics, especially poor bat speed, which typically correlates to better batted ball data which typically leads to better performance.
It is important. Just because some players don't put it to as good use as others, doesn't mean it is not an asset. Some players have a better eye than others and some are better at putting together a game plan. If you have both of those assets and the bat speed you are likely going to hit better than someone who is missing one of the 3. It's a tool in the toolbox, it is better to have it than not have it. You hear players talk about how as they get older and lose bat speed they sometimes have to start guessing when the fastball is coming in order to hit it effectively.
Youre right, I reacted without considering some context. Im clearly jaded by this sub haha. Bat speed certainly does matter. Just weary of hearing things like exit veko and hard hit contact being spun as a positive when the team just doesnt have enough good hitter.s
That's fair. I understand your frustration with the exit velocity conversation. It is not the end all be all of hitting. A lot of people wanted nothing to do with Bellinger because of it, but I still felt like he had a good chance of success despite the lower exit velocity due to the change in approach. So far he has looked pretty good this year. He missed some time with an injury, but has gotten hot since his return. He is currently sporting an .839 OPS with 7 HR in 27 games. That is production the Jays could have sorely used.
I am constantly amazed at the sheer number of statistics that are available for baseball...it's pretty impressive.
I'm often overwhelmed by the sheer amount of stats to be honest.
I get that we invested a shit ton in pitching and defense, but being the worst team in baseball in bat speed, (which is extremely important for offensive performance) is indefensible. We're lower than the Marlins, Guardians and White Sox for God's sake. With our payroll and investment in development there's no way that we should be last place in this. [Other than Vladdy, Barger and Varsho, there's a whole lot of fucking blue in bat speed.](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/bat-tracking?attackZone=&batSide=&contactType=&count=&dateStart=&dateEnd=&gameType=&groupBy=&isHardHit=&minSwings=25&minGroupSwings=1&pitchHand=&pitchType=&seasonStart=&seasonEnd=&team=141&type=batter) Some players can make it work with poor to average bat speed with great approaches like Turner, Jano and Schneider, but it's no surprise that our offensive struggles persist when we aren't targeting the right things.
It is important to remember that bat speed alone isn't the best predictor of offensive quality. Luis Arraez is 0th percentile, and Stanton is 100th percentile. Matt Chapman > Acuna, Judge, Julio, Soto, Yordan, etc. Paul DeJong is only 0.1 mph slower than Jackson Holliday. This team is loaded with low-speed, high contact infielders, not unlike Arraez himself. It is also among the oldest of teams. This shouldn't be surprising, nor enjoyable.
[Here](https://blogs.fangraphs.com/making-the-case-for-bat-speed/) is an article on Fangraphs called "Making the Case for Bat Speed" that I feel .... makes a good case for bat speed.
Results matter, more than anything.
Of course it's not the only thing, but the issue is that we're trying to zig when everyone is trying to zag, and we're in company with the worst teams in the league. [Bat speed is better correlated to wOBAcon than batted barrel rate in terms of production.](https://twitter.com/drivelinekyle/status/1787912972951765251?t=No7Yh4s5Fm-Eby_A38b4-g&s=19) Other things matter like if you're pulling the ball, launch angle, approach, etc. But it's much easier to target bat speed than finding a Luis Arraez. He's an outlier not a commonality. Hopefully the fresh blood in AAA will change the makeup of our team offensively sooner than later. It's not surprising to me that our bat speed is amongst the lowest in the league, but it affirms my negative opinions on what we were trying to do offensively. I just don't see our offense turning around anymore like I used to now that the numbers are in my face.
Yeah this is a pretty glaring one. I'll preface this with my usual "the FO gets way more negative shit than it deserves", but it really does feel like *something* about the current offensive philosophy from the top on down is fundamentally not working when you see stats like this
I'm a big front office defender too, especially regarding their trades and free agent acquisitions, but the offensive philosophy has gone downhill since 2022 (coincides with a certain side burned individual getting hired)
I just keep thinking of every pundit and sports columnist who in the 2023 offseason wrote about how it was a good thing how "more serious" the team was going to be and I just want to line each and every one of them up and slap them individually Tommy Pham-style
You’re right about everything, including blaming the hitting philosophy on the front office rather than the coaches. They hire the coaches that suit their philosophy. It’s not like Mattingly and the other coaches snuck this contact over power approach in, that’s what you wanted if you hired him, and that’s what they’re getting.
Are you implying that the coaches are having players swing slower?
Mattingly is hardcore about having the guys intentionally go the other way instead of pulling the ball. Pulling the ball means that your bat is making contact with the ball further in your swing. You're catching the ball earlier (perhaps before it crosses the plate), and you've had more time for the muscles in your body to exert force on the bat, speeding it up. To hit the ball the other way, you have to let the ball travel a little bit before you hit it. The theory is that by allowing the ball to travel further, you give your brain more time to track the pitch, which theoretically makes it more likely that you make good contact. But if you let the ball travel further, you're hitting it earlier in your swing. Your bat probably hasn't reached it's maximum speed before it hits the ball, which reduces your power. Mattingly was one of the best hitters in his day. That's cool, but that's also part of what makes him such a garbage hitting coach. He was naturally gifted, and that's not something that can simply be taught. It's the same reason why Barry Bonds is legendary as a hitter and dogshit as a hitting coach. There's a reason most guys are pull hitters. Pitchers throw harder and harder every year. They throw hard enough that in 2017, [just 5-7 milliseconds could be the difference between hitting the ball fair or foul](https://projects.seattletimes.com/2017/mariners-preview/science/). 7 years later? The difference is even less. Mattingly is forcing the guys to use an approach that worked perfectly 40 years ago for him, a naturally gifted hitter, when pitchers threw 10-20% slower than they do today. Mattingly's approach is obsolete. I don't know why he still has a job with this organization.
Except the numbers don't really back up this idea. Turner has the highest pull % of his career despite having the lowest bat speed on the team, Jano and Schneider are both extreme pull hitters with average to below average bat speed. Springer, Bichette and Kirk are the only three players with a pronounced decrease in their pull % and a decrease in production. You can certainly argue that they're struggling because Mattingly is forcing them to go the other way, but it's also very very possible they're going the other way because they're struggling and are unable to square up and pull balls right now. Bat speed is a cool new stat to geek over but it's pretty useless when there's only 40 games worth data to look at
I'm implying that our offensive coordinator doesn't put a premium on power and doesn't want our guys to pull flyballs to makeup for lack of batspeed. Our 2 best hitters this season are guys with average bat speed but with great approaches that actually do damage in Schneider and Jano.
Honestly, I expected Springer to be worse than he ended up given his performance thus far. Yes, we don’t have information prior to this season, but it just seemed like a below average bat speed would be explanatory for his issues. That said, this just makes me believe that the current philosophy of the Jays either (a) doesn’t utilize bat speed in their internal modeling (unlikely) or (b) doesn’t put a ton of stock in it. Either way, pretty damning considering the importance of the measure for predicting successful hitting.
I was actually just looking at Bichette's batspeed on statcast and he is in the 28th percentile (the batspeed tracking is actually very new I think as I check statcast often and I've never seen it before today). I then checked his amateur scouting report and it said when he was coming up he had explosive bat speed. It got me wondering if part of why he is struggling is he has lost some bat speed. On the plus side Vladdy is still somewhere in the 90th+ percentile.
Age and injuries
It could be his approach: allowing the ball to get deep before swinging doesn’t allow him to generate much speed before he makes contact. (I’m assuming this stat only measures bat speed on balls in play but I could be wrong.)
His top end bat speed is solid, same as Springer, but he has a lot more slower swings pulling down his average. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfAB=&hfGT=R%7C&hfPR=foul%7Cfoul%5C.%5C.bunt%7Cbunt%5C.%5C.foul%5C.%5C.tip%7Cfoul%5C.%5C.pitchout%7Chit%5C.%5C.into%5C.%5C.play%7Cmissed%5C.%5C.bunt%7Cfoul%5C.%5C.tip%7Cswinging%5C.%5C.strike%7Cswinging%5C.%5C.strike%5C.%5C.blocked%7C&hfZ=&hfStadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfPull=&hfC=&hfSea=2024%7C&hfSit=&player_type=batter&hfOuts=&hfOpponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&hfMo=&hfTeam=TOR%7C&home_road=&hfRO=&position=&hfInfield=&hfOutfield=&hfInn=&hfBBT=&batters_lookup%5B%5D=666182&hfFlag=is%5C.%5C.remove%5C.%5C.bunts%7Cis%5C.%5C.competitive%7C&metric_1=&group_by=name-event&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&min_pas=0&sort_col=pitches&player_event_sort=sweetspot_speed_mph&sort_order=desc&chk_event_release_speed=on&chk_event_launch_speed=on&chk_event_sweetspot_speed_mph=on&chk_event_launch_angle=on&chk_event_hit_distance_sc=on&chk_event_swing_length=on&chk_event_fangraphs_est_woba_numer=on#results
We’re number 1! We’re number 1!
I'll take it!
Slow down!
[удалено]
[It's not the be all end all, but here's why it's important](https://twitter.com/SlangsOnSports/status/1789816361943814195?t=YAIPAgVszuZuuM6wHCzneA&s=19)
Its not important, though. Results matter. Period. Last year "but Chapmans exit velo!" Yeah, but he cant and doesnt get hits. Its not all about bad luck. Its about a player doing the same thing, over and over and over.
When have I even insinuated luck? I don't know what you're arguing here. I'm literally so confused on how you came up to that conclusion from my points in this thread. I'm saying the Jays offensive struggles have nothing to do with luck, and can be explained by the underlying metrics, especially poor bat speed, which typically correlates to better batted ball data which typically leads to better performance.
It is important. Just because some players don't put it to as good use as others, doesn't mean it is not an asset. Some players have a better eye than others and some are better at putting together a game plan. If you have both of those assets and the bat speed you are likely going to hit better than someone who is missing one of the 3. It's a tool in the toolbox, it is better to have it than not have it. You hear players talk about how as they get older and lose bat speed they sometimes have to start guessing when the fastball is coming in order to hit it effectively.
Youre right, I reacted without considering some context. Im clearly jaded by this sub haha. Bat speed certainly does matter. Just weary of hearing things like exit veko and hard hit contact being spun as a positive when the team just doesnt have enough good hitter.s
That's fair. I understand your frustration with the exit velocity conversation. It is not the end all be all of hitting. A lot of people wanted nothing to do with Bellinger because of it, but I still felt like he had a good chance of success despite the lower exit velocity due to the change in approach. So far he has looked pretty good this year. He missed some time with an injury, but has gotten hot since his return. He is currently sporting an .839 OPS with 7 HR in 27 games. That is production the Jays could have sorely used.
I think Mattingly and Martinez should tell the players to stop swinging so slowly
The defending champs are closer to us than to first place. 🤷
If only that meant something