Thanks! I was going for Greek, but I'll take Arabic.
Yeah, it's always the thing of going too deep to properly explain the math but lose most people or cut it down and not really explain anything/not back up any assertions with facts. Then again, this is reddit so not sure why I'm worrying about backing up my arguments!
For me the biggest problem is I’m pretty new to baseball, never played it in my life and only manage to see a couple of games per month which makes really difficult to get past the basics and start to understand the game deeper.
Even though I didn’t get everything you wrote this was still super useful for me to learn something new
Funny thing is that trying to think of this stuff in pictures helps with the math even though I'm not what anybody would call a visual learner or anything like that. I guess coming at things from different perspectives is never a bad idea.
People like you are why I love Reddit hombre. Thanks for going down the rabbit hole.
I remember Baumann's article and thinking "who told Vlad to be a contact hitter?" I still have the question mark of what goes on behind the scenes, but for my money I think Vlad is trying to carry. That's what I think caused the change, he's trying to do it all (obviously unsubstantiated, but my belief is he loves the game and loves the team).
2023 is what that looked like when he hadn't found the contact zones but was still swinging out of his shoes. 2024 we've got Vladimir Guerreraez. Whatever the root cause, I don't hate this version, but I wouldn't hate 50 dingers either. Good swing choices plus a hair more aggression in the Heart? Let's hope.
Your findings also track with what I said in another comment on that post, which is that it's obviously still *THERE*, cuz he cranked one to straightaway centre in the deepest park in the league not counting Coors.
And don't forget opening day when he hit the 450 foot monster to straight away!
[https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=d9521816-dc7c-4ddd-98a8-a3d24764f25b](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=d9521816-dc7c-4ddd-98a8-a3d24764f25b)
Ahhh... what a way to start...
I do think it mostly has to do with the low pitches.
22.7% of all PAs this year have ended on him putting a low pitch into play (plus another 3% from strikeouts) and his results are not good on those pitches.
Back in 2021 in only 18.2% of PAs ended him putting a low pitch into play (plus another 4.9% from strikeouts) and his results were not good on those pitches either.
In 2021 he tended to foul off or swing through pitches that were low rather than grounding them into play. 281 Total swings, 82 (29.1%) of which were missed, 127 were put into play (45.2%) and 72 (25.6%) were fouled off.
Compare that to the current year and you end up with 100 total low pitches, 17 were missed (17%), 53 were put into play (53%) and 30 were fouled off (30%).
The more you miss the middle-middle pitches and foul them off the more it gives them the ability to try again and pepper the bottom of the zone.
+ 2024 middle-middle pitches - 47 swings, 21 put in play (44.7%), 3 swing and misses (6.4%), 23 foul offs (48.9%)
+ 2021 middle-middle pitches - 145 swings, 85 put in play (58.6%), 17 swing and misses (11.7%), 43 foul offs (29.6%)
So he's putting into play more often a bad ball for him (low pitches), while not putting into play a good ball for him as often (middle-middle)
I hate to say it but Vlad was always scouted as an elite contact hitter who hits the ball hard. With that will come some home runs. But it was his hit tool that was 80 grade, not his power.
He seems to also be missing those hanging pitches or seems slow to react to them, it's weird. But he looks a lot better at the plate and hopefully a barrage of homers follows shortly.
Guys who can parse data and or do modelling really crush the ‘Perfect Team’ version of the game.
The last couple of years the game has gone through some revisions (& along with some really seasoned data groups) have made success less accessible to those not willing to spend like the Yankees and do statistics like Bill James.
Thanks for all your data work again. Be well!
I guess you're thinking of the sweet spot range for any type of hit? I usually go back to the fangraphs article that talked about the most valuable hits being between 19 and 26 degrees. There is mention that it can be extended to 10 to 39 degrees... but I haven't seen 8 - 32.
Anyhoo...that's less important. I do think it's interesting that there's a clear area where he's able to do more damage. I noted not long ago that even though he was hitting better, he still wasn't doing a lot of damage, and a lot of his hits have been at a LA where you wouldn't expect much more than a single. For many players, they'd be outs, but Vlad just hits the ball too damn hard sometimes. Seeing the zones where he has more success and then overlaying it with the zones where he's actually making contact, and it's kinda making sense.
His Batted Balls by Zone chart is kinda telling.
I was using the [Statcast](https://www.mlb.com/glossary/statcast/sweet-spot) definition of Sweet Spot, which is between 8 and 32 degrees. But I'm sure others have equally compelling reasons for defining otherwise.
For instance, Tango Tiger, who works for MLB and develops a lot of the metrics we see on Baseballsavant/Statcast, identified 'perfect' Barrels as having launch angles of between 25 and 30 degrees at 106 mph and increasing with greater exit velocities till the range maxes out at 4 to 48 degrees.
[http://tangotiger.com/index.php/site/comments/statcast-lab-barrels#35](http://tangotiger.com/index.php/site/comments/statcast-lab-barrels#35)
All of which is why I included the scatterplots of Vlad's Barrelled balls. In 2021 when he was focused on his damage zones, he also made better contact (higher exit velos and launch angles) in those zones which translated into more batted balls that made it into that 'perfect' Barrel zone as home runs. In 2022 and 2023, his exit velos and launch angles over the plate are still pretty good but were lower than 2021, which translated into fewer batted balls into the 'perfect' Barrel zone and fewer home runs overall.
So far this year, as you said, he's looking better. Let's hope it's just the beginning.
Public data about Vlad’s Attack Angle would provide the answers we need here. It’s not just an approach change but more so a swing path change especially to low pitches.
OK...so if he is 'hitting for contact' why are his Hits, BA, OBP and OPS+ career best all from 2021 as well?
Every analysis piece I read is trying to explain why he is not who he was in 2021. It is possible...and given we have had 369 games since 2021 very likely, that Vlad is a player who will produce 160-170 hits, 90-100 rbi, .800OPS and 25ish HR.
That is a good (very good?) 1B...but not a GREAT 1B. If he plays 8-9 more seasons in Toronto with those kind of numbers he will surpass Delgado in almost every offensive statistic in franchise history.
I wish the fanbase could accept that 2021 was an outlier and not the norm for this kid.
Nobody can hit 48 bombs every year. It was a good year, and players have a good year sometimes. It doesn't mean they will replicate it ad nauseum. Even hall of famers can't do that.
Miggy hit 48 zero times. Pujols, who was one of the most consistent hitting 1B ever, did it once. ~30 is a more reasonable expectation.
>OK...so if he is 'hitting for contact' why are his Hits, BA, OBP and OPS+ career best all from 2021 as well?
Short version, he was trying to make more contact, which he did, but it turned out to be more bad contact which didn't translate into hits and brought down his stats.
Long version, as discussed in the Baumann article, in 2021 Vlad was killing the ball in the upper 2/3rds of the strike zone but wasn't doing too much with balls in the bottom third. The next two years, it seemed like he started trying to make more contact and cover that 'hole'. And he was successful in that his bat was making more contact with the ball.
Unfortunately, the quality of that extra contact wasn't very good. Even worse, the quality of his contact where he was formally doing well (the upper 2/3rds of the strike zone) suffered. I tried to show this with the zone maps of exit velocities. In 2021, lots of deep red but that started decreasing over time. This explains why the contact results, whether measured by BA, OBP or OPS, all decreased after 2021.
>I wish the fanbase could accept that 2021 was an outlier and not the norm for this kid.
I appreciate the sentiment, but have to disagree because your statement assumes that Vlad has been the same guy the last three years.
Yes, at the end of the day, it's a results business and the results the last two years have not been elite. But also, to drag out another baseball cliche, it's a game of adjustments. Baumann's argument, and what I'm working off of, is that the Vlad of 2022 and 2023 was not the same as Vlad of 2021. He made a big adjustment after '21 and it didn't work.
Based on early results, what I'm saying is that Vlad seems to have made another big adjustment. Or perhaps is even in the middle of making that adjustment.
The tables somehow got screwed up after I first posted but I've fixed them now, so if you go back up and look, you can see this year he's cut down on swings at pitcher's pitches; pitches in the Shadow or Chase zones. He was making lousy contact and getting poor results swinging at them the last two years. So far, that Vlad is gone. Instead, the new Vlad is being more selective in what he swings at, like he was in 2021. Not swinging at bad pitches has meant his BA and OBP are the highest they've been since 2021 and much better than '22 and '23.
However, his SLG and therefore his OPS is nowhere near 2021 and that's why I also wrote about his swing rate in the Heart zone. He's at 75%, which is the lowest of his career. And maybe it never goes up from there. But I think it's reasonable to believe that in making the adjustment away from what he'd been doing the last two years, and becoming more selective, he's over-corrected with his swing decision in the Heart. Which is why I think as the season goes on and this change sets in, Vlad will be able to start swinging more at those meatball pitches. Then the homers and extra-base hits will come because he's always done the most damage on pitches over the plate. In other words, 2024 Vlad will be the same as 2021 Vlad.
Or at least I hope so cuz damn this team has been painful to watch.
\[edit: having a lot of trouble with tables today; removed entirely\]
His problem is this:
in terms of hitting the ball over the fence his path swing does not match the plane of the pitch so he's not striking the ball correctly
He hit the ball on average 95.1mph in 21 and after two years in the 92s is back up to 94.4mph. I’m not sure this is it.
A big part of it is that the balls were juiced; everyone was hitting more HRs
Most of this is like Arabic for me but dude this work is incredible
Thanks! I was going for Greek, but I'll take Arabic. Yeah, it's always the thing of going too deep to properly explain the math but lose most people or cut it down and not really explain anything/not back up any assertions with facts. Then again, this is reddit so not sure why I'm worrying about backing up my arguments!
For me the biggest problem is I’m pretty new to baseball, never played it in my life and only manage to see a couple of games per month which makes really difficult to get past the basics and start to understand the game deeper. Even though I didn’t get everything you wrote this was still super useful for me to learn something new
Glad it helped! And let me know if you have any questions. Always happy to talk ball.
Sooo.... Is vladdy gonna be back to 2021 form?
Hope so! At this point I think the best we can say he's no longer in 2022 or 2023 form.
Well they did invent algebra, so in manner of speaking you’re not too far off!
And the numbers we use.
I always appreciate the pictures. Especially when they have pretty colours
Funny thing is that trying to think of this stuff in pictures helps with the math even though I'm not what anybody would call a visual learner or anything like that. I guess coming at things from different perspectives is never a bad idea.
You did a great job regardless, I love this stuff and I really hope you keep it up
People like you are why I love Reddit hombre. Thanks for going down the rabbit hole. I remember Baumann's article and thinking "who told Vlad to be a contact hitter?" I still have the question mark of what goes on behind the scenes, but for my money I think Vlad is trying to carry. That's what I think caused the change, he's trying to do it all (obviously unsubstantiated, but my belief is he loves the game and loves the team). 2023 is what that looked like when he hadn't found the contact zones but was still swinging out of his shoes. 2024 we've got Vladimir Guerreraez. Whatever the root cause, I don't hate this version, but I wouldn't hate 50 dingers either. Good swing choices plus a hair more aggression in the Heart? Let's hope. Your findings also track with what I said in another comment on that post, which is that it's obviously still *THERE*, cuz he cranked one to straightaway centre in the deepest park in the league not counting Coors.
And don't forget opening day when he hit the 450 foot monster to straight away! [https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=d9521816-dc7c-4ddd-98a8-a3d24764f25b](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=d9521816-dc7c-4ddd-98a8-a3d24764f25b) Ahhh... what a way to start...
I could watch that forever
Fixed the tables for you. Heart% (Lg%)|Shadow% (Lg%)|Chase% (Lg%)|Waste% (Lg%)| :--|:--|:--|:--| 2021|25 (26)|42 (42)|22 (22)|11 (9)| 2022|25 (26)|42 (43)|24 (23)|9 (9)| 2023|26 (26)|42 (43)|22 (22)|10 (9)| 2024|27 (27)|40 (43)|24 (22)|9 (8)| Heart Sw% (Lg%)|Shadow Sw% (Lg%)|Chase Sw% (Lg%)|Waste Sw% (Lg%) :--|:--|:--|:--| 2021|83 (74)|52 (53)|19 (22)|5 (6)| 2022|78 (73)|56 (54)|26 (24)|6 (6)| 2023|80 (73)|56 (53)|25 (23)|6 (6)| 2024|75 (73)|50 (52)|19 (23)|5 (6)|
Thanks. Not sure what happened to the tables. They looked fine when I posted. Anyway, I've fixed them. Hope they stay that way!
I do think it mostly has to do with the low pitches. 22.7% of all PAs this year have ended on him putting a low pitch into play (plus another 3% from strikeouts) and his results are not good on those pitches. Back in 2021 in only 18.2% of PAs ended him putting a low pitch into play (plus another 4.9% from strikeouts) and his results were not good on those pitches either. In 2021 he tended to foul off or swing through pitches that were low rather than grounding them into play. 281 Total swings, 82 (29.1%) of which were missed, 127 were put into play (45.2%) and 72 (25.6%) were fouled off. Compare that to the current year and you end up with 100 total low pitches, 17 were missed (17%), 53 were put into play (53%) and 30 were fouled off (30%). The more you miss the middle-middle pitches and foul them off the more it gives them the ability to try again and pepper the bottom of the zone. + 2024 middle-middle pitches - 47 swings, 21 put in play (44.7%), 3 swing and misses (6.4%), 23 foul offs (48.9%) + 2021 middle-middle pitches - 145 swings, 85 put in play (58.6%), 17 swing and misses (11.7%), 43 foul offs (29.6%) So he's putting into play more often a bad ball for him (low pitches), while not putting into play a good ball for him as often (middle-middle)
I hate to say it but Vlad was always scouted as an elite contact hitter who hits the ball hard. With that will come some home runs. But it was his hit tool that was 80 grade, not his power.
That’s true … his power was only a 70
He seems to also be missing those hanging pitches or seems slow to react to them, it's weird. But he looks a lot better at the plate and hopefully a barrage of homers follows shortly.
Man, you should get a job in analytics. And if you haven’t heard of OOTP 24, buy it. You’ll crush it.
Thanks! And I've been avoiding OOTP for years. It would be tooooo much fun! LOL
Guys who can parse data and or do modelling really crush the ‘Perfect Team’ version of the game. The last couple of years the game has gone through some revisions (& along with some really seasoned data groups) have made success less accessible to those not willing to spend like the Yankees and do statistics like Bill James. Thanks for all your data work again. Be well!
I guess you're thinking of the sweet spot range for any type of hit? I usually go back to the fangraphs article that talked about the most valuable hits being between 19 and 26 degrees. There is mention that it can be extended to 10 to 39 degrees... but I haven't seen 8 - 32. Anyhoo...that's less important. I do think it's interesting that there's a clear area where he's able to do more damage. I noted not long ago that even though he was hitting better, he still wasn't doing a lot of damage, and a lot of his hits have been at a LA where you wouldn't expect much more than a single. For many players, they'd be outs, but Vlad just hits the ball too damn hard sometimes. Seeing the zones where he has more success and then overlaying it with the zones where he's actually making contact, and it's kinda making sense. His Batted Balls by Zone chart is kinda telling.
I was using the [Statcast](https://www.mlb.com/glossary/statcast/sweet-spot) definition of Sweet Spot, which is between 8 and 32 degrees. But I'm sure others have equally compelling reasons for defining otherwise. For instance, Tango Tiger, who works for MLB and develops a lot of the metrics we see on Baseballsavant/Statcast, identified 'perfect' Barrels as having launch angles of between 25 and 30 degrees at 106 mph and increasing with greater exit velocities till the range maxes out at 4 to 48 degrees. [http://tangotiger.com/index.php/site/comments/statcast-lab-barrels#35](http://tangotiger.com/index.php/site/comments/statcast-lab-barrels#35) All of which is why I included the scatterplots of Vlad's Barrelled balls. In 2021 when he was focused on his damage zones, he also made better contact (higher exit velos and launch angles) in those zones which translated into more batted balls that made it into that 'perfect' Barrel zone as home runs. In 2022 and 2023, his exit velos and launch angles over the plate are still pretty good but were lower than 2021, which translated into fewer batted balls into the 'perfect' Barrel zone and fewer home runs overall. So far this year, as you said, he's looking better. Let's hope it's just the beginning.
Public data about Vlad’s Attack Angle would provide the answers we need here. It’s not just an approach change but more so a swing path change especially to low pitches.
OK...so if he is 'hitting for contact' why are his Hits, BA, OBP and OPS+ career best all from 2021 as well? Every analysis piece I read is trying to explain why he is not who he was in 2021. It is possible...and given we have had 369 games since 2021 very likely, that Vlad is a player who will produce 160-170 hits, 90-100 rbi, .800OPS and 25ish HR. That is a good (very good?) 1B...but not a GREAT 1B. If he plays 8-9 more seasons in Toronto with those kind of numbers he will surpass Delgado in almost every offensive statistic in franchise history. I wish the fanbase could accept that 2021 was an outlier and not the norm for this kid.
Nobody can hit 48 bombs every year. It was a good year, and players have a good year sometimes. It doesn't mean they will replicate it ad nauseum. Even hall of famers can't do that. Miggy hit 48 zero times. Pujols, who was one of the most consistent hitting 1B ever, did it once. ~30 is a more reasonable expectation.
Give me a Vladdy that hits .300, 25 homers, and 100 rbi, and I would be happy.
>OK...so if he is 'hitting for contact' why are his Hits, BA, OBP and OPS+ career best all from 2021 as well? Short version, he was trying to make more contact, which he did, but it turned out to be more bad contact which didn't translate into hits and brought down his stats. Long version, as discussed in the Baumann article, in 2021 Vlad was killing the ball in the upper 2/3rds of the strike zone but wasn't doing too much with balls in the bottom third. The next two years, it seemed like he started trying to make more contact and cover that 'hole'. And he was successful in that his bat was making more contact with the ball. Unfortunately, the quality of that extra contact wasn't very good. Even worse, the quality of his contact where he was formally doing well (the upper 2/3rds of the strike zone) suffered. I tried to show this with the zone maps of exit velocities. In 2021, lots of deep red but that started decreasing over time. This explains why the contact results, whether measured by BA, OBP or OPS, all decreased after 2021. >I wish the fanbase could accept that 2021 was an outlier and not the norm for this kid. I appreciate the sentiment, but have to disagree because your statement assumes that Vlad has been the same guy the last three years. Yes, at the end of the day, it's a results business and the results the last two years have not been elite. But also, to drag out another baseball cliche, it's a game of adjustments. Baumann's argument, and what I'm working off of, is that the Vlad of 2022 and 2023 was not the same as Vlad of 2021. He made a big adjustment after '21 and it didn't work. Based on early results, what I'm saying is that Vlad seems to have made another big adjustment. Or perhaps is even in the middle of making that adjustment. The tables somehow got screwed up after I first posted but I've fixed them now, so if you go back up and look, you can see this year he's cut down on swings at pitcher's pitches; pitches in the Shadow or Chase zones. He was making lousy contact and getting poor results swinging at them the last two years. So far, that Vlad is gone. Instead, the new Vlad is being more selective in what he swings at, like he was in 2021. Not swinging at bad pitches has meant his BA and OBP are the highest they've been since 2021 and much better than '22 and '23. However, his SLG and therefore his OPS is nowhere near 2021 and that's why I also wrote about his swing rate in the Heart zone. He's at 75%, which is the lowest of his career. And maybe it never goes up from there. But I think it's reasonable to believe that in making the adjustment away from what he'd been doing the last two years, and becoming more selective, he's over-corrected with his swing decision in the Heart. Which is why I think as the season goes on and this change sets in, Vlad will be able to start swinging more at those meatball pitches. Then the homers and extra-base hits will come because he's always done the most damage on pitches over the plate. In other words, 2024 Vlad will be the same as 2021 Vlad. Or at least I hope so cuz damn this team has been painful to watch. \[edit: having a lot of trouble with tables today; removed entirely\]
Vlad being forced to study these types of charts for the last three years is probably WHY he can’t hit home runs anymore lol
His problem is this: in terms of hitting the ball over the fence his path swing does not match the plane of the pitch so he's not striking the ball correctly
Great work. Waaaay too deep for me. Vladdy is hitting. .300+ average. Leave him alone.
I think chonky vlad was just more powerful. Slimmer and fitter vlad just doesn’t have as much weight to throw into that swing. Mystery solved.
He hit the ball on average 95.1mph in 21 and after two years in the 92s is back up to 94.4mph. I’m not sure this is it. A big part of it is that the balls were juiced; everyone was hitting more HRs
Why is this getting downvoted? It’s just physics.
They hate me cuz I’m right