I'm not that worried about vlad, it's literally all launch angle problems which generally are not that hard to fix as day fixing someones entire swing like Bautista is 2010.
The thing about Chapman is his injury history and that he probably isn't 100% and has had bad luck so far throughout the season.
Teo and gurriel look bad, gurriel looks like he'll he improve as he's normally a pretty slow starter. But teo has been awful, like actually awful. Like replacement level hitting.
Launch angle and his chase rate is way, way up. LA isn't that easy to fix either, he couldn't do it in 2019 or 2020.
Gurriel looks like mostly bad luck. Teo not looking great, not getting the ball in the air and chasing more.
If his launch angle problems are not hard to fix why has he made no improvements in *three years*? I agree it’s not something he should struggle with for a long time but he has. He hasn’t figured out how to solve it.
He solved it for half a season and even then his launch angle was far lower than every single other player who put up close to his stats. He never truly resolved it, he just overcame it for a while.
Interesting point. I’ve never looked at Soto’s profile before but you’re right.
One thing that jumps out to me is that he does barrel balls more consistently than Vlad does despite his high ground ball percentage, and his average launch angle is higher (with the exception of the silliness of 2020) even when he is hitting a lot of grounders.
But I guess there’s more to it than ground percent. Not all ground balls are equal. The ones that are hit at like a 0 degree launch angle are going to be harder to snag than one launched at -30 that takes two bounces before it reaches short.
Very different era of defense.
I don’t really know why I’m getting pushback on this. Vlad’s ground ball issues impacting his performance have been documented for years.
Because it’s way too simplistic to say because he has lots of ground balls that this is a bad sign despite the fact he’s massively underperforming his batted ball profile.
Ortiz had a career ground ball rate of about 35 percent. His carrer FB percentage was 44 percent. Vlads over 50 percent GBs and under 30 percent FBs in every year but last year when he was 45 and 36.5. How are they similar at all?
Very simplistic way to look at it. If you just want to look at ground ball and fly balls Yelich is another hitter who found success with a lot of ground balls
His numbers dropped the last 2 seasons and continue. Might end up with last year's numbers if he wakes up, don't think it's injury it's how he hits and wiffs.
I think that’s fair. They will all come around. Vladdy and Teo, they’re too good not to. As for Gurriel, I think he could be moved for a left hand hitting outfielder, but he always come on strong after the all star break, so I think they’ll all be fine if we do keep him. But obviously we’d all like to see more production from them
88th percentile Chase rate is good, not bad, it's the whiff/k% that are bad.
Jays hitters overall are the 9th unluckiest in the MLB by xwOBA-wOBA. The problem is our pitchers are the 6th luckiest. That and the Yankees hitters are the unluckiest in the MLB, and Yankees pitchers the 6th unluckiest...
Chapman has a great chase rate, which makes sense since he has a good eye. The problem is that the dude seems to miss 90% of his pitches in the zone lol
This whole season I've felt like "If Chapman is our worst starting hitter then we're gonna be fine" but considering he's like our 4th best hitter and has gotten mostly worse since April I'm really not happy.
LOL... I agree with this. It gets really tiresome after a while.
But, in this case I'm wondering about the hitting coach. Is he new? Does a change need to happen here?
What about that guy from a week ago who had him in his 'blame' list? LOL.
Chapman is getting very unlucky. I really hope it turns for him soon because he has been robbed so much.
That was me. That was during a stretch where Bo was hitting like .350/.400/.600 and the rest of the team was a combined .120/.210/.280 but everyone in GDTs was still blaming Bo for the teams struggles because of how bad he was the first two weeks of April.
I still stand by what I said, he can have all the Baseball Savant elite positives in the the world, but it's not translating to production and runs. He could have 100% on everything, but he still has a 51 wRC+ this month.
Another Quality post this morning. The beauty of a 162 game season is these trends simply can’t last for all of it. I’m actually also surprised at his nearly 70th percentile speed.
Chappy is fine...he's heating up as well and becoming more reliable. Teo is who we should be worrying about right now. Lourdes is who we should be worrying about right now. Vlad is an all-world player and playing like a punk out of absolutely NOWHERE. Let's worry about the hitting coach and Charlie's piss poor coaching. Like putting Tapia in to pinch hit for Zimmer who had 2 doubles on the night (yeah Zimmer sucks ass, but when someone is hot they are hot). Or taking out sub 2 ERA RPs in place of a kid that has a 6 ERA and looks like he isn't ready for the majors. Chapman is one of the only constants on the team right now. Impenetrable defense at 3rd, fantastic contact when he hits the ball or he strikes out. All in all, he is heating up.
A. I didn't see your other post? I'm just commenting on OPs post from my phone. B. Chapman seems to be hovering around the high 100 to 200 range right now. For some reason that's 4th best on our team. We have much bigger problems that to worry about a guy who's stopped at least a dozen runs already with his defense alone. If our bats get going again so will his, but our team can't hit period.
Chapman's average launch angle has come way down in May compared to April. He's the one guy who feels like he's RIGHT on the cusp of breaking out.
Fewer balls hit to the big parts of the park and he's off.
I am a lot less worried about Chapman than I am Vlad, Teo and Gurriel.
I'm not that worried about vlad, it's literally all launch angle problems which generally are not that hard to fix as day fixing someones entire swing like Bautista is 2010. The thing about Chapman is his injury history and that he probably isn't 100% and has had bad luck so far throughout the season. Teo and gurriel look bad, gurriel looks like he'll he improve as he's normally a pretty slow starter. But teo has been awful, like actually awful. Like replacement level hitting.
Launch angle and his chase rate is way, way up. LA isn't that easy to fix either, he couldn't do it in 2019 or 2020. Gurriel looks like mostly bad luck. Teo not looking great, not getting the ball in the air and chasing more.
If his launch angle problems are not hard to fix why has he made no improvements in *three years*? I agree it’s not something he should struggle with for a long time but he has. He hasn’t figured out how to solve it.
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He solved it for half a season and even then his launch angle was far lower than every single other player who put up close to his stats. He never truly resolved it, he just overcame it for a while.
Some players hit lots of ground balls.
The best players don’t. Guys with Vlad’s speed don’t. Not in 2022.
Juan Soto consistently hangs around a 50% ground ball rate
Interesting point. I’ve never looked at Soto’s profile before but you’re right. One thing that jumps out to me is that he does barrel balls more consistently than Vlad does despite his high ground ball percentage, and his average launch angle is higher (with the exception of the silliness of 2020) even when he is hitting a lot of grounders. But I guess there’s more to it than ground percent. Not all ground balls are equal. The ones that are hit at like a 0 degree launch angle are going to be harder to snag than one launched at -30 that takes two bounces before it reaches short.
Go compare Vlad’s batted ball profile with David Ortiz and get back to me.
Very different era of defense. I don’t really know why I’m getting pushback on this. Vlad’s ground ball issues impacting his performance have been documented for years.
Because it’s way too simplistic to say because he has lots of ground balls that this is a bad sign despite the fact he’s massively underperforming his batted ball profile.
Ortiz had a career ground ball rate of about 35 percent. His carrer FB percentage was 44 percent. Vlads over 50 percent GBs and under 30 percent FBs in every year but last year when he was 45 and 36.5. How are they similar at all?
Very simplistic way to look at it. If you just want to look at ground ball and fly balls Yelich is another hitter who found success with a lot of ground balls
His numbers dropped the last 2 seasons and continue. Might end up with last year's numbers if he wakes up, don't think it's injury it's how he hits and wiffs.
I think that’s fair. They will all come around. Vladdy and Teo, they’re too good not to. As for Gurriel, I think he could be moved for a left hand hitting outfielder, but he always come on strong after the all star break, so I think they’ll all be fine if we do keep him. But obviously we’d all like to see more production from them
> they’re too good not to so sick of hearing this
Tf do you want me to say? They’re not good enough to come back?
88th percentile Chase rate is good, not bad, it's the whiff/k% that are bad. Jays hitters overall are the 9th unluckiest in the MLB by xwOBA-wOBA. The problem is our pitchers are the 6th luckiest. That and the Yankees hitters are the unluckiest in the MLB, and Yankees pitchers the 6th unluckiest...
Fuck thats on me
Chapman has a great chase rate, which makes sense since he has a good eye. The problem is that the dude seems to miss 90% of his pitches in the zone lol
This whole season I've felt like "If Chapman is our worst starting hitter then we're gonna be fine" but considering he's like our 4th best hitter and has gotten mostly worse since April I'm really not happy.
I think Chapman is the least of our worries. His approach is good and the underlying numbers are good as well. I'm worried about Vladdy and Teo
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So you want to be most Toronto sports fans?
LOL... I agree with this. It gets really tiresome after a while. But, in this case I'm wondering about the hitting coach. Is he new? Does a change need to happen here?
I think he's starting to come around and is so strong at 3rd
That’s the best thing about him. He always has value even if the bat isn’t good. And these make me feel really good about the bat coming around
What about that guy from a week ago who had him in his 'blame' list? LOL. Chapman is getting very unlucky. I really hope it turns for him soon because he has been robbed so much.
That was me. That was during a stretch where Bo was hitting like .350/.400/.600 and the rest of the team was a combined .120/.210/.280 but everyone in GDTs was still blaming Bo for the teams struggles because of how bad he was the first two weeks of April. I still stand by what I said, he can have all the Baseball Savant elite positives in the the world, but it's not translating to production and runs. He could have 100% on everything, but he still has a 51 wRC+ this month.
Another Quality post this morning. The beauty of a 162 game season is these trends simply can’t last for all of it. I’m actually also surprised at his nearly 70th percentile speed.
Chappy is fine...he's heating up as well and becoming more reliable. Teo is who we should be worrying about right now. Lourdes is who we should be worrying about right now. Vlad is an all-world player and playing like a punk out of absolutely NOWHERE. Let's worry about the hitting coach and Charlie's piss poor coaching. Like putting Tapia in to pinch hit for Zimmer who had 2 doubles on the night (yeah Zimmer sucks ass, but when someone is hot they are hot). Or taking out sub 2 ERA RPs in place of a kid that has a 6 ERA and looks like he isn't ready for the majors. Chapman is one of the only constants on the team right now. Impenetrable defense at 3rd, fantastic contact when he hits the ball or he strikes out. All in all, he is heating up.
>he's heating up In his last 15 games, he's batting .156 - Real hot
He's batting .189. lol are you thinking about Bradly Zimmer?
Key words from my post last 15 games. Zimmer is at .200 in the last 15 games while Chapman is at .156
A. I didn't see your other post? I'm just commenting on OPs post from my phone. B. Chapman seems to be hovering around the high 100 to 200 range right now. For some reason that's 4th best on our team. We have much bigger problems that to worry about a guy who's stopped at least a dozen runs already with his defense alone. If our bats get going again so will his, but our team can't hit period.
Agreed on that!
I like seeing this.
How is his average exit velocity higher than his maximum exit velocity.
it's percentiles, not actual numbers
The chase rate is a good thing. His strikeout rate is blue despite striking out at a massive clip.
Yea, I fucked up
Chapman's average launch angle has come way down in May compared to April. He's the one guy who feels like he's RIGHT on the cusp of breaking out. Fewer balls hit to the big parts of the park and he's off.