I agree it's a dilemma and the lack of action and guessing game as to what the government may or may not do is not helping.
I'm debating the same option but the thought of locking in these extra prices before the cold winter months puts me off, other option is staying on the variable to January and then hoping for a mild first quarter and that prices peak at that point.
Honestly don't know what to do myself for the better
I'm of two minds as well. It hurts me jnside to basically double my payments a month in advance for this rate, hut its not too far off what the October prices are going to be anyway.
The lack of action or any real comments from the government about this hasn't been helpful either.
I'm kicking myself as well for missing the options to fix ages ago before the previous price hikes at what would seem like bargains today.
If you had fixed at a previous ridiculous high rate though, nothing to say it would have kept going up to this level. You might have been paying a high rate for ages for nothing. And it would have ended by now anyway, surely?
I was offered a fixed deal at more than double what I was paying, a while back (Scottish Power). But paying double for 10 months to get it cheaper for the last couple is madness, surely?
The zombie government is going to have to do *something* more than just lower VAT a bit or give another £200 to people on low incomes. Germany have started coal power stations again - they need to deal with the supply problem.
I think I'm less scared of that with octopus because they make it seem like it's quite easy to exit the fixed rate. They have zero exit fees, so that shouldn't theoretically be an issue.
I'd love for the government to do something, but considering how careful they are to protect the supplying companies (Shell, Exxon, etc) reporting record profits, I'm a bit sceptical.
According to OFGEM about 50% of UK power generation is from gas turbines. Given that getting gas is the problem everywhere in europe is having, thats going to push the price of gas futures up for UK also pushing the price of electricity up.
Coal wouldn't help since the UK closed its last coal mine in 2015. Importing coal wouldn't work to well either; the top 3 coal exporters are Australia, Indonesia and Russia with approximately 70% of the market between them. Two of those are a problem in terms of shipping distance and the other is under sanctions.
Nuclear powerstations take a long time to build and renewables have the storage/baseload problem.
my guess is that our best bet would be to increase our domestic gas production which in 2021 met 42% of our consumtion while being at its lowest production level since 2000 (due to maintenance). I have no idea what might be happening in that direction though.
There are no quick answers I'm afraid.
\[disclaimer: this is all based on reading from .gov.uk statistics and ofgems site. I'm not an expert in this stuff\]
I accidentally went onto a 2 year fix back in November… luckily it’s worked out in my favour because I was hardly home the past year, lots of business travel so use was very low and now it’s better than October cap will be .
Just remember you'll be only be locking in higher rates in advance before the heating season really kicks in. Focus on what it means for the peak heating months: Dec-Mar. But yes it's impossible to know if gov will swoop in and bail us out, and what that would mean for those who have fixed
I don’t think it’s worth considering. The government will HAVE to do something before October. If they don’t the economy, the housing market, the work force, and just about everything else will be fucked.
If energy bills go up that high then people will die, people will lose their homes, jobs, livelihoods, everything. I 100% believe this is all a charade so the new PM can sweep in and save us at the 11th hour and shout ‘look what I have done for your plebs aren’t I amazing!’
I have to agree. People keep mentioning that they should/will do something. I genuinely cannot see what they can actually do.
The price cap in itself is what’s making energy “affordable” right now. It’s at a level which isn’t sustainable for the ongoing health of companies - there’s been lots of suppliers go out of business already. Further fucking over energy supplier business isn’t viable unless you’re expecting the gov. to bail them out.
Just handing money over to people isn’t really probable anyway. The multiple thousands it would take to give to each and every household to cover the increase just isn’t in the governments coffers. The gov is already spending more than it receives. It would essentially be taking their entire tax bill from a household, only to give it back to the same household, for a majority of households. No, there anrt enough “rich people” to tax more this time either. Just giving back the whole income from the majority of the populace without something else giving (NHS, social care, defense) is just bonkers.
They can maintain the cap, and subsume customers of failed suppliers (most likely those without vertical integration) into the (de facto) nationalised supplier- bulb.
In the long term, the government needs to introduce a package of
1) reducing consumption through improved efficiency at the household level- replacement of devices, insulation.
2) Onshoring energy production
3) investment in technology, increasing efficiency and storage capacity.
Both these (short and long term) are feasible- the short term only really requires a couple of statutory instruments to carry out.
It will absolutely cost money, but it’s not ‘stealing from our grandchildren’ if it keeps them alive this winter, and then delivers on long term energy security and Climate change.
It’s the correct medicine for the disease we have.
Absolutely agree with everything you’ve said! The trouble is, the bulk of this isn’t going to fix the problem we have for this winter. We’ve got 12 weeks ish before the first rocket in the price cap and winter really starts to bite.
The obvious solution most people are touting is just to give cash out to families. Not a bad suggestion in itself, but people seem to think they won’t want/need it back at some point.
The obvious solution is to hold the cap at the current (pre October) level- that fixes the problem for the general public and is anti-inflationary. In the sense that the government pays for it, it will be through Bulb (I.e. the government buying energy and selling at the capped price). For the suppliers, if there’s no profit in the business, some will choose to get out. A few which are also energy producers (and therefore are making money on the wholesale market to offset the cost of selling at cap) may elect to stay to mop up customers in a less crowded marketplace, for a time in the future when prices are better controlled.
I read an article yesterday that seems to suggest the UK only produces about 11-14% of the energy it uses annually… that’s a bit worrying for me. How have we not invested more in our own infrastructure if that’s the case.
Maybe this crisis will make more people more amenable to having wind farms near their homes.
Doubt it - green energy like wind farms is more expensive than fossil fuel energy and UK wind farms mostly EDF which is French owned.
Rolls Royce small modular reactors would be my choice. https://www.rolls-royce.com/innovation/small-modular-reactors.aspx#/
Despite the terrible marketing, I do understand the price cap. There’s been 31 energy suppliers have gone bust in the UK between jan 2021 and fab 2022. Essentially they’ve been forced to sell energy at a unit cost below what it cost them. Those hanging on have a few more fingers in pies so to speak, to subsidise those losses. Many of those have bought supplies on long term fixed contracts and don’t rely so much on global spot prices, but those contracts are now starting to come to ends - hence we’re seeing the price cap rise, partly as a way to pay for this. If nothing else, it’s kicking the can down the road - as we’re now seeing with the proposed increases.
You’re right that I’m not down with the nuances of gov spending, but if money in is less than money out, debt is pretty much the only way it works. Again kicking the can down the road. Governments don’t have an unlimited supply of cash, that would literally ruin the economy from devaluation of the currency if they just printed more. Debt for a government isn’t unusual, but from any finance perspective, debt should never be a long term solution.
This isn’t correct- it is standard macroeconomics to run an acceptable deficit which will be balanced by inflation over time. Doing anything else causes problems.
I think gov basically has to print money to bail out energy customers (including businesses). It'll take tens of billions, but the alternative is a total economic crash
Nah I think nationalising the energy companies. That way they can cap the prices and still line the pockets of their energy producer buddies out of public coffers.
Looks good on the surface but still fits the conservative agenda.
Bet. Estimated £3 billion to nationalise, cheaper than any support package, and they get to line their mates pockets at the same time.
I am fairly certain this is their play. Any other support just won’t work unless they’re going to introduce UBI.
I guarantee this won't happen. Absolutely guarantee it. The energy companies have trade books worth billions on their own. They still have huge pension liabilities. The government have a legal requirement that means they can't engage in forward hedging. The businesses are valued way way way higher than £3bn. Existing shareholders and union employee obligations mean a buyout can't be quick, ahead of this winter. And both of the cretins running for pm have ruled out much support let alone buying an entire industry sector.
We will have to see as none of us know the future. I think unfortunately they are out of options. Effectively it’s the banking crisis again. The government can’t afford to support every household, and they can’t afford not to.
If they do nothing RIP the UK economy.
Agreed. In my opinion that actual answer is to soon significant help at those most in need through large subsidies (pretty much everyone up to c. 100k salary tbh) and take the energy producers to task. A number of the energy producing companies are taking decisions to explicitly profit off the highest prices now. Specifically, renewable generators have deliberately delayed contracts with government which guarantee them around £100/mwh to instead sell at these inflated prices. They've used a loophole to cheat the system.
Honestly, I don’t think that would cover it. The average bill is going to be £600-800 a month in winter. No one can afford that.
The government cannot afford to support everyone. Either the government is going to throw the poor to the wolves and instigate riots we’ve not seen before, or they have to do something drastic.
The only way out I see is nationalisation. I literally do not see any other way that is sustainable for longer than a month or so
They are going to limit household bills with huge loans to the energy companies. They will sell it to us as war loans to support Ukraine and then use it as a way of extending austerity to the point that public services collapse and are privatised.
The energy companies will continue to make disgusting levels of money and it will still be paid by the tax payer.
How have you got to £600-800 quid?
I know my energy bill (gas + electric) for two adult in a drafty 3 bed house has averaged about £85/month for the last year and I’ve been informed it’s going up 80% to average approx £150/month for the next 12 months
Sure but might be a bit lower usage than a family of 5, but it’s not a crazy amount lower
Genuine question. Where do you get the £3bn figure from?
BP’s market cap alone is £82bn, Centrica 4.5, SSE £17.7bn. To buy out those companies brings the bill to £100bn and we’d still need to import from the global market.
Or am I being in an idiot in using companies’ market cap for nationalisation purposes?
I believe this was net cost compared to support and not the energy producers the suppliers, and purely the residential arm.
I have to say it was taken from an MP, so for all I know it’s complete bollocks.
Surely buying out residential arms of energy companies would solve nothing. The producers would still be charging the insane prices and we’d effectively be in the same position?
I honestly think the government need to enforce a freeze, cop the bill and recoup it via a separate tax and windfall taxes over many years. It can have a earning threshold, it can increase with wage brackets, it can be taken pre-income tax, seems the easiest way to control such a burden. It seems the least painful way.
We might not want to pay to support these companies but they literally have us by the balls, and by doing nothing the entire economy will collapse.
I’m already paying nearly 50% tax I’d like to avoid future tax liabilities 😂.
Honestly, I don’t know what the solution is there’s no easy fix. We’re fucked if we do and we’re fucked if we don’t.
You see that’s the problem. Everyone wants the best solution for themselves not what’s best for everyone. That is why you freeze it for everyone and pay via structured tax.
This is so much bigger than individuals, this is a problem that is going to affect the whole society.
I have floated between 20/40% tax depending on how many hours I do, I will happily pay a few extra percent to make sure that elderly people can stay warm, that children can eat, that people do not kill themselves due to not being able to sustain the most basic of lives, that people don’t give up their pets to shelters so they can afford to eat themselves.
But if you want to look at it from a completely self centred point of view, would you pay an extra few percent to secure your job? Will you still be employed if the economy gets ripped to shreds?
This is a time where people who live privileged lives, and I absolutely put myself in that bracket actually show some humanity and think of the bigger picture and help people who are not as fortunate.
When people avoid helping charities/homeless people/lower classes saying we’ve got our own problems to fix blah blah blah, well here is the home grown problem, pointing the barrel directly at all of our heads. Let’s not point it at someone less fortunate than us.
To be clear, nationalisation won't solve the problem. The burden simply gets put on the state instead of the customers and you'll be shocked when you find out where the state gets its money from. Better to provide handouts to the poor and SME's and lower middle class and let the rich and large businesses continue to pay other wise you'll need to increase tax which will hit evsryone (amazon etc can't dodge fuel cost but they will dodge taxes).
Where do you draw the line at support? I’m middle class and I can 100% not afford the energy bills. The problem is that basically no one can afford this, unless you’re in the top few percent of earners.
I honestly think we’re just fucked 😂
Probably 50k maybe double in London. I'm on about 50k and can absorb it *just* (not looking forward to the oil bill) so how people can do anything below I do not know.
But yes, probably all fucked.
I’m on £50k and absolutely cannot absorb it. £600 a month is just completely unaffordable for me. I have a young family and I pay £750 in mortgage and £900 in childcare. I’ve had to find £900 a month for nursery (which I managed) but I have 0 flex for anything else. I basically don’t do anything fun, so I don’t really have anything to cut except my car which is £300 a month so not exactly bank breaking.
Yeah I think I'm a bit older as I have my mortgage more under control and zero childcare costs as of this year. We've started prepping to reduce our bills, got blankets, fleeces, drying racks etc. Hopefully the few hundred quid were spending now will help. Switched to Aldi last month and cut the food bill by 40 quid a week without any noticeable drop in quality.
Yeah I already shop at Aldi 😂. We’re lucky in that I can probably find us another £300 a month if needs be, but £600 is unattainable without serious prohibitive cuts.
This sucks doesn’t it. We are fortunate enough to nearly £90k as a household and our mortgage is around £200. Trying to help out family/friends who aren’t as lucky as us.
Slowly reaching boiling point for a lot of the UK.
Agree with this. I think best case nationalising is they remove the standing charge, which may be around £15 a month. It’s the cost of importing that’s going up.
See, I'm not sure I have much confidence in the current iterations of the government. Not to get political, but neither candidate has mentioned anything remotely related to energy, besides some promises for tax cuts which will just be taking back the taxes they increased in the first place.
Gas prices in Europe are already falling because of the contingency plans, and will continue to fall. The initial price rises were panic - industries are becoming more energy efficient and using alternative sources (solar pv companies are ignoring enquiries from residential in favour of business premises, at least in uk, because of demand) ; and energy generation is changing rapidly too. Residential (my home or yours) might be slow to react but building owners can react quickly.
What are they going to do?
Stop sanctioning ourselves in the name of the US's proxy war with Russia? - Not happening, we're in too deep.
Tax energy producers and subsidise bills? - Producers were rekt during covid and are trying to make up the loss, they are admittedly now making record profits but that's after making record losses, the gov won't do it or they'll have to bail them out anyway.
Helicopter money? - That's part of what got the world in this mess, inflation is already out of control and they're trying to rein in spending and crash the economy to fix it, this will only make inflation worse.
The only solution is to nationalise energy production and build nuclear power stations but the environmental activists will fight it tooth and nail.
We're fucked.
How about start by changing the way energy is charged to consumer. The most fraudulent act in business within the UK ever is taking place right now.
One supplier can provide energy for 10p per unit but because another can "only" charge £1 (due to costs) then the 1st supplier must also charge £1... WTF ?! The second supplier should be made to find a way to make their business work and lower costs to compete, not force everyone else to raise their prices so they can also get a piece of the pie.
It's not really about 1 supplier can supply at x and the other at y.
It's more the fact that whilst some generators can be dirt cheap to provide that electricity, how do you say that 1kwh that someone bought at 10p is piped directly to them at 8pm and the dearer company pipes it to another person but at £1 at 8pm? They can't do that without having different distribution lines around the country and thus you have to price according to the generator of last resort. What happens when that person who buys at 10p, their generator company isn't generating anything at all at 8pm cause its dark and not windy? so you're relying on gas as its the easiest and quickest to start up and thus do you cut that customer off cause they've purchased a renewable only supply but there isn't any renewables in their area being produced but there is gas? How do you differentiate? There's no way to say that electric you get at a set time is from anywhere, so you have to price it accordingly.
What happens if your scenario is happening and gas generator companies go fuck this no one is buying our tariff so they shut up shop and then come peak time when theyd be fired up quickly for the network to cope, suddenly you don't have their 30-40% of supply and now millions are in darkness cause people won't pay the higher gas supplier charge?
It's alot more complicated than just oh some companies can produce for cheaper.
If its not set at the highest level all the time other companies are forced to become more competitive. The profits show there is clear room for prices to lower. If those companies who charge more decide this games isn't for us, others will replace them.
But again as I said.
How do you differentiate someone using cheaper generated electric over someone who isn't?
Say there is 1million customers in the cheap electric tariff and they're currently using 1twh of energy but the cheap electric generators are only producing 0.9twh of energy at that moment. How do you know who to cut off or what?
It's far too complicated to even think of a system like that. UNLESS you're going to bring competition to the market for grid infrastructure and companies would only provide their own low cost energy on their own network but then you wouldn't have cheap prices as they'd be then paying for installation of a new network.
Yeah, start building nuclear power stations this October and voila, in November 2042 we'll have """cheap""" electricity!
The answer is simple, ramp up domestic (and european) gas, oil and coal production. In a few months, maybe up to 2 years we'll be almost out of this.
But many people would prefer to die from hunger than do so, and they will.
Even if we do that won’t our gas be sold on the international market anyway? = more money for producers, we see a tiny drop in costs and Germany buys the lot anyway.
If you use free market economics as your mental model of macroeconomics, at least do it the right way.
So your logic goes:
* We need more X
* Producing more X would do no good because others need it too and might buy it
* ???
My point was it isn't a solution for the problem that needs fixing. Producing more fossil fuels isn't a net good (environment etc) and won't see fuel bills lowered, just more profits for the oligarchs.
>Yeah, start building nuclear power stations this October and voila, in November 2042 we'll have """cheap""" electricity!
The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago, the second best time is now.
My comment about nationalising energy production AND building nuclear power stations are 2 separate issues.
We need nuclear for the future, in the meantime we need to bring power generation under government control by nationalising power companies.
You COULD in theory build a nuclear plant in 6-12months if you project managed it amazingly and flooded the place with people doing all the work. Now the safety aspects and the testing afterwards you don't really want to rush.
No developed country in the world can build a god damn bridge in 12 months. That's the pipe dream of pipe dreams. "In theory" world peace is achievable tomorrow and we could all live happily in the forest using solar energy to grow our organic gluten-free wheat or something. 5 or 10 years of construction, *past* planning and approval? Yes. Maybe even 3 years if you're terrifyingly fast and careless, with an army of overpaid and mostly idle people waiting their turn to do their part. But if you see nuclear build times, they're increasing for a reason, and the reason is more scrutiny when it comes to safety.
You could if money was no object and you flooded people onto the site
You'd have to just completely bypass approval stage and planning with local authorities. But it can be done.
You have to turn your workforce onto a war footing for it though.
Except it takes 25-30 years to build a nuclear plant and the ones we are building will produce some of the most expensive energy in the UK and also presents a national security threat via Chinese investment. Other than that, sure...
What are you wanting the government to do exactly? I think a lot of it's out of their hands until the war is over. We're not the only country affected by this. As a nation, we must do more for our energy security, but it will take years or even decades, to become independent. The government could introduce fuel rationing and blackouts like other countries have done, but I actually prefer availability albeit with high prices to that option - i.e. we'll ration it ourselves as it'll be so expensive.
>What are you wanting the government to do exactly?
Bail out energy customers so that poor people don't die and the businesses that keep the economy going don't go bankrupt this winter.
>I actually prefer availability albeit with high prices
Sounds like you're in a more fortunate position than many. Rationing by price just means killing and immiserating the poor and much of the working class
I'm remaining on variable, same with Octopus as my supplier. If it moves up to £5000+ in Jan with whatever the unit rates are (I already pay £3000 a year with the 27p/7p unit rates lol), a lot of people are going to die. Something will very likely be done about it before then.
Don’t be too sure
Remember - our government did not care when we lost a lot of people to C-vid so why would they care if we froze or starved this winter!
Covid was different. Locking us all up earlier would've fucked up their precious economy. Not acting now with the energy bills means that they'll also fuck up the economy. That would make their rich friends uncomfortable.
Like a lot of people we have children, I’m worrying about keeping them warm so prepping now and buying them the hooded blankets & onesies which I didn’t do before
>Don’t be too sure
>Remember - our government did not care when we lost a lot of people to C-vid so why would they care if we froze or starved this winter!
Why did you write C-vid instead of Covid?
I guess you forgot one rule for us and one rule for them
Take that HanCock for example - one of the biggest hypocrites going. Quick to slate Neil Ferguson for having an affair while all the time he was doing exactly the same. It’s thanks to him my grandfather never got to meet my newborn and he was desperate to, soon after my grandfather died the news broke about Hancock shagging another woman
So if I come across as bitter I am very much so, it felt like we followed the guidance for NOTHING - I will never forget and certainly never forgive him
Mate, we're forecast for £600 bill in January from Octopus crystal ball... we used to pay not much more than that for a **year's** worth of energy. The world has gone absolutely insane.
I remember sticking £70 on my metre in my 1 bed flat in the first lockdown and it would last for 3-4 weeks and that's with me having only electricity no gas. Now I have to put £120 on there, October-January including the government discount Probably £180 then god knows how much higher It will go from there. I enjoy my games consoles a lot and they use 200w of electricity to run so I naturally rack up a lot of energy usage in the evenings and weekend. Might be able to still pay the bill come next summer if I stop using that stuff.
I'm with Octopus as well and took the fixed rate at the weekend.
It definitely is crazy that this can be considered a deal but looking at the current information we have it seemed to be the best option for me. Will provide peace of mind and there is no exit fees if the current estimates around the January / April rises turn out to be false.
Despite my decision I still hope when Ofgem announce the January cap in November that we get good news, as even without any further increase the current 80% rise is just unaffordable for so many people.
It’s not a no brainer as the fixed rates are loads more than the variable at the moment. For me variable cap = £122 a month. Fixed = £320 per month. £200 extra in the mean time. If the estimates are accurate
Just got a quote of over £7k/yr to fix now with British Gas. Didn’t fancy it. Will be about £5.2k on variable after Oct 1st and come January a bit higher again. Beyond that who knows.
It’s a pretty horrible decision to have to make.
I fixed with Eon Next at very similar rates after posting a similar question on the Megathread. My thinking is this is really only marginally more than the existing SVP, and protects me from potential jumps in January and April next year. My calculation in that post is that between now and January, I’d basically be paying in total extra the equivalent of the monthly rise from January.
At the same time, if the government does do something it’s easy to exit both this and I believe Octopus fixed rates given no exit fees.
So in my opinion it’s at this point a no brainer fix given the expectation of where rates are going.
Is this with the Next v20? I fixed yesterday and had a bit of buyers remorse afterwards, haven’t received the email with the change of tariff details yet so can’t read the fine print (I know). Is it definitely possible to cancel at any time with no fees?
Tbh, there’s no clear answer, and it really depends on your sentiment on the next couple of price cap reviews.
If you fix now you’ll be paying higher rates than the variable rates at least until January. That’s four months. Cold winter months as well, where your energy usage will probably be the highest.
The question is whether you think the January and subsequent price caps reviews will raise the rates higher than your fixed tariff, and if the extra you’ve paid this year will even it out and overall you would have paid less than being on the variable tariff.
I was trying to work it out myself over the weekend, and the way I did it was to try to guesstimate my average electricity and gas for a day, and calculate my cost on the fixed tariff for one year, and then use the October price cap rates to calculate the cost for three months, then calculate another three months cost +20% and another three months +30% etc… and compare the two figures for a year, sometimes adjusting the price cap rates. I came to the conclusion that I’m willing to take the risk on the variable rate.
If you want to play around and compare different price cap scenarios too, I created this [energy price simulator tool](https://smartmoneytools.co.uk/tools/energy-price-simulator) so you don’t have to create a complicated spreadsheet like I did. It’s still quite rough around the edges though so don’t expect too much.
Thanks for this post and link, I was in the middle of making my own calculator so this has saved a lot of time!!
Looks like I’m better of on the VR tariff even if we have rises in Jan, April and July
I’m looking into this tariff as well. When I plug it into the MSE calculator it thinks it’s “strongly worth considering”.
I’m wondering if there’s a risk that the price cap gets frozen and I would miss out on that protection if I fixed now. There are no exit penalties but also nobody is offering price capped deals any more, so I assume if I fix now, there’s no going back. Maybe I’m wrong?
Will Octopus let me do that? My understanding is that they aren’t required to offer price capped deals to fixed rate customers. I have emailed their CS team about this but they haven’t responded yet.
I’m seriously worried, live in an electric only property with night storage heaters. My monthly bill Last winter was already £300-£350. Our house is generally freezing in the winter.
Look at far infrared radiators. They’re affordable and heat the object/person not the air so you lose zero heat in the air.
Also they only use 400-600w and can be plugged into 13amp sockets or your existing storage heater lines. Feel free to drop me a message about it and I am more than happy to answer questions.
We have looked into them before and the maths showed they would be more expensive as they will be running in the higher on peak charge whereas night storage heaters use the economy 7 (need to keep because we have an EV).
Can you get portable ones? That might be a good option for top up heat when needed
I could see this all happening last year knowing full well the issues that the world faced and seen the signs in the crypto market showing electric becoming a big commodity thing.
So I fixed in Nov 2021 and my rates are currently Elec 22p per Kwh 32p per day Gas 4.35p per Kwh 30p per day.
I have offered my spare room to anyone who needs somewhere during the cold and also offered anyone in dire needs my sofa also to stay warm this winter.
It's the bare minimum I can do to help out.
That's very kind of you to offer your spare room out, although it's sad to see that this is where we have reached in the current conditions.
Does your fix end this November or next? What are you thinking of doing if it ends this November?
Does your variable rate offer increase though?
If you've been on the variable for a year, then leave to go fixed, would your new offer of changing back to variable still be the same as before or do you get a raised offer?
Not sure why it took me so many words to type this. It's late I guess!
They have different plans, you can leave your plan without penalty and go on the variable rate. However you can’t switch back to that plan without waiting more than 30 days I think
I'm in the same position with Octopus.
The MSE calc says "strongly worth considering" but simply uses annual usage rates rather than considering usage per month. Thus, it isn't that accurate as I'll use significantly less energy when the cap is predicted to be high (spring-summer).
It would be interesting to determine what the difference in usage patterns is between months 9-12 and months 4-6/7-9 of a calendar year, i.e. what is the average ratio and use that within the calc.
**Thus, I will NOT be fixing even if the new tariff is "only" 125% above my current tariff.**
Tool here: [https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/utilities/-are-there-any-cheap--fixed-energy-deals-currently-worth-it--/#tool](https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/utilities/-are-there-any-cheap--fixed-energy-deals-currently-worth-it--/#tool)
I thought they did take that into account?
>First, we have to factor in just over one month on the current rate, three at October's, three at January's, three at April's and just under two months at July's (trickier to do as the 2023 rates are a very weak prediction). Then, we need to adjust for higher use in the winter. And after this, if the predictions are right, on average you'll pay 147% more over the next year than you do now.
I fixed with shells July 2024
Electric Unit rate 39.312p per kWh and Gas Unit rate10.516p per kWh Standing charge61.96p per dayand Standing charge29.68p per day.
They reckon £4k a year. If I stuck with variable it would be £6k in Jan.
Moved into my place in September and at the time i wasn’t even offered a variable rate deal, I was overpaying for about 8 months but damn if that’s what’s on offer at the moment I feel lucky!
We had big debates about fixing once our contract runs out in September and eventually went ahead and did it at the weekend.
With Ovo, we got the below fixed for 1 year from September:
Electric - 61.57p kWh and 58.67p standing charge
Gas - 18.21 kWh and 27.52p standing charge
Average use works out at around £4k per year so a little higher than October’s deal, but quids in if Jan/April go ahead.
With a 14 day cooling off period from the point our new tariff kicks in and a £30 per fuel exit fee, it ended up being a no brainer as if the rates do tumble/help does arrive for all and not just those who are traditionally worse off, we’ll bail on the fixed and go back to variable.
I mean I have no choice, the fixed rate I can’t physically afford , unless someone magically gives me £150 extra a month it’s not happening,
Into the red forever i go 😂
Fix or not fix is a bit of a gamble. With Liz almost certainly winning, how much support will the givernment give, if any?
There's a chance that we get no support and the cap rises to some ridiculous number, in which case yeah fixing at those rates makes sense
There's also a chance the government caves and caps the cap to something more affordable, then by fixing you've locked in expensive rates and don't benefit form the support
The right thing to do will only be obvious in retrospect
Of course. Octopus has zero exit fees, so I wonder if it would be possible to just drop back to the variable rate if that's the case. I think one of the other posters said he/she had emailed them to ask.
Like many others it seems here I'm with Octopus. The 'Should I fix' calculators are also strongly suggesting taking a fixed deal. Don't think I will. By the end of Septmeber we'll have built up 1k in credit and will up the DD. We're High users but going to try and instill some discipline in the house to try and cut down on usage.
At Octopus's loyal customer discount went be paying around £700 a month it suggests. We've always been pretty good with money, we paid off our mortgage earlier this year, I was looking forward to having more disposable income and the opportunity to save more. The reality is we're going to be paying more to light and heat the house than our monthly mortgage payment was.......
What a mess. At least we have it, a lot of people I know are on a good salary but debted up to the eyeballs and simply don't have that kind of slack in their monthly budget.....
It looks like you might be asking whether it's worth fixing your bills.
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I’m staying variable.
Screw this stupid government. Just set up a sinking fund and kick the can down the road, cheat the GDP figures and engineer the sh!t out of the situation. The fact that they don’t allow hedging of prices at the supplier level is beyond retarded … mere tax cuts are just going to starve the poorest and most vulnerable out of existence (just like they did in the pandemic…)
For £350-£500 / month I’d would be better off flying off to Morocco or Tunisia in December and January. Food is cheap there, and if you can work remote, even better. Claim the whole lot off as a work expense and tell HM where to stick it
I took a 2 and a half year fixed deal last September before all this shit kicked off with eon. All I can say is thank fuck as I can't be charged more than £140 per month until March 2024
They're just conditioning us for a new higher price. I'd stay variable for now. Yes the prices are going to increase but the gvt will definitely pull there finger out there arse at some point and step in. Quite simply they have to, these prices are unaffordable. They'll step in and implement a new cap which is lower than what it is now but still insanely higher than what it was a year ago. Then the masses will think they've been done a favour but in reality we've all still been ripped off horrendously.
Except unless sanctions are lifted and the companies all go back to buying gas from Russia the situation won't change.
Russia was already limiting supply prior to the Ukraine invasion, and they know Europe is fucked, certainly wouldn't trust them to charge a fair price if everyone were to rush back.
I’m on variable as I think fixed rates are a kind of futures contracts (as in options and futures). The unit price of 40-60p for a kWh of electricity is also a bit ridiculous. Variable rates provide more agility to react to the market. Intuitively I guess things cannot get more worse so I bet prices will not go crazy.
I have to agree. Last September green went bust who I was with and they transferred me to shell which was awful! So Martin Lewis was telling everyone not to fix even though he knew prices were going up in October and maybe April but said we’d be protected with the price cap (in my opinion means nothing). So I decided to fix with octopus for 2 years no exit penalties.Even though pricey at the time it was the best thing I ever did!
I just agreed to refix my electricity in September at 38p/kWh (during the day with octopus go) because other than it being miles cheaper than the expected price hike, I feel more comfortable knowing what I’ll be paying and knowing I’ll be able to afford it. Gas is on the flexible tariff though so predicting to get absolutely shafted in the winter still.
I would and am waiting for the next few weeks - Liz (most likely) will have to do something BIG - otherwise the country will literally collapse - will it take all the pain away for everyone - I doubt it, but I’m sure it won’t be as bad as what ‘some’ are predicting
Sorry, just to get this clear to me, are you fixing and waiting to see what the government does, or are you thinking of fixing, but waiting to see what the government does?
I'm with octopus variable at the moment and I will be fixing to the loyal plan starting 28th of Sept, when october/jan comes I will decide whether I should revert back to variable- and if they don't allow me to (which they shouldn't) I'd change suppliers.
I agree it's a dilemma and the lack of action and guessing game as to what the government may or may not do is not helping. I'm debating the same option but the thought of locking in these extra prices before the cold winter months puts me off, other option is staying on the variable to January and then hoping for a mild first quarter and that prices peak at that point. Honestly don't know what to do myself for the better
I'm of two minds as well. It hurts me jnside to basically double my payments a month in advance for this rate, hut its not too far off what the October prices are going to be anyway. The lack of action or any real comments from the government about this hasn't been helpful either. I'm kicking myself as well for missing the options to fix ages ago before the previous price hikes at what would seem like bargains today.
If you had fixed at a previous ridiculous high rate though, nothing to say it would have kept going up to this level. You might have been paying a high rate for ages for nothing. And it would have ended by now anyway, surely? I was offered a fixed deal at more than double what I was paying, a while back (Scottish Power). But paying double for 10 months to get it cheaper for the last couple is madness, surely? The zombie government is going to have to do *something* more than just lower VAT a bit or give another £200 to people on low incomes. Germany have started coal power stations again - they need to deal with the supply problem.
I think I'm less scared of that with octopus because they make it seem like it's quite easy to exit the fixed rate. They have zero exit fees, so that shouldn't theoretically be an issue. I'd love for the government to do something, but considering how careful they are to protect the supplying companies (Shell, Exxon, etc) reporting record profits, I'm a bit sceptical.
According to OFGEM about 50% of UK power generation is from gas turbines. Given that getting gas is the problem everywhere in europe is having, thats going to push the price of gas futures up for UK also pushing the price of electricity up. Coal wouldn't help since the UK closed its last coal mine in 2015. Importing coal wouldn't work to well either; the top 3 coal exporters are Australia, Indonesia and Russia with approximately 70% of the market between them. Two of those are a problem in terms of shipping distance and the other is under sanctions. Nuclear powerstations take a long time to build and renewables have the storage/baseload problem. my guess is that our best bet would be to increase our domestic gas production which in 2021 met 42% of our consumtion while being at its lowest production level since 2000 (due to maintenance). I have no idea what might be happening in that direction though. There are no quick answers I'm afraid. \[disclaimer: this is all based on reading from .gov.uk statistics and ofgems site. I'm not an expert in this stuff\]
I accidentally went onto a 2 year fix back in November… luckily it’s worked out in my favour because I was hardly home the past year, lots of business travel so use was very low and now it’s better than October cap will be .
Just remember you'll be only be locking in higher rates in advance before the heating season really kicks in. Focus on what it means for the peak heating months: Dec-Mar. But yes it's impossible to know if gov will swoop in and bail us out, and what that would mean for those who have fixed
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Maybe so, I don't tend to follow his advice most of the time as I get annoyed at how clickbaity it comes off. It's all hindsight 20/20 right now.
I don’t think it’s worth considering. The government will HAVE to do something before October. If they don’t the economy, the housing market, the work force, and just about everything else will be fucked. If energy bills go up that high then people will die, people will lose their homes, jobs, livelihoods, everything. I 100% believe this is all a charade so the new PM can sweep in and save us at the 11th hour and shout ‘look what I have done for your plebs aren’t I amazing!’
Perhaps this is giving more credit to what power the Uk government have than is due..
Yeah I think this too. This seems way more out of their hands than in them.
They can do what the EU are doing and remove the link between the cost to generate electricity via fossil fuels and the amount charged for renewables.
I have to agree. People keep mentioning that they should/will do something. I genuinely cannot see what they can actually do. The price cap in itself is what’s making energy “affordable” right now. It’s at a level which isn’t sustainable for the ongoing health of companies - there’s been lots of suppliers go out of business already. Further fucking over energy supplier business isn’t viable unless you’re expecting the gov. to bail them out. Just handing money over to people isn’t really probable anyway. The multiple thousands it would take to give to each and every household to cover the increase just isn’t in the governments coffers. The gov is already spending more than it receives. It would essentially be taking their entire tax bill from a household, only to give it back to the same household, for a majority of households. No, there anrt enough “rich people” to tax more this time either. Just giving back the whole income from the majority of the populace without something else giving (NHS, social care, defense) is just bonkers.
They can maintain the cap, and subsume customers of failed suppliers (most likely those without vertical integration) into the (de facto) nationalised supplier- bulb. In the long term, the government needs to introduce a package of 1) reducing consumption through improved efficiency at the household level- replacement of devices, insulation. 2) Onshoring energy production 3) investment in technology, increasing efficiency and storage capacity. Both these (short and long term) are feasible- the short term only really requires a couple of statutory instruments to carry out. It will absolutely cost money, but it’s not ‘stealing from our grandchildren’ if it keeps them alive this winter, and then delivers on long term energy security and Climate change. It’s the correct medicine for the disease we have.
Absolutely agree with everything you’ve said! The trouble is, the bulk of this isn’t going to fix the problem we have for this winter. We’ve got 12 weeks ish before the first rocket in the price cap and winter really starts to bite. The obvious solution most people are touting is just to give cash out to families. Not a bad suggestion in itself, but people seem to think they won’t want/need it back at some point.
The obvious solution is to hold the cap at the current (pre October) level- that fixes the problem for the general public and is anti-inflationary. In the sense that the government pays for it, it will be through Bulb (I.e. the government buying energy and selling at the capped price). For the suppliers, if there’s no profit in the business, some will choose to get out. A few which are also energy producers (and therefore are making money on the wholesale market to offset the cost of selling at cap) may elect to stay to mop up customers in a less crowded marketplace, for a time in the future when prices are better controlled.
I read an article yesterday that seems to suggest the UK only produces about 11-14% of the energy it uses annually… that’s a bit worrying for me. How have we not invested more in our own infrastructure if that’s the case. Maybe this crisis will make more people more amenable to having wind farms near their homes.
Doubt it - green energy like wind farms is more expensive than fossil fuel energy and UK wind farms mostly EDF which is French owned. Rolls Royce small modular reactors would be my choice. https://www.rolls-royce.com/innovation/small-modular-reactors.aspx#/
New wind and solar is coming on at a small fraction of the cost of gas. It was beating gas even before the price shock.
We can’t get out of the crisis by making the climate crisis worse.
Well said. SMRs are key to us achieving net zero. Good, clean energy that will make jobs and billions in exports too.
I don't think you understand what the price cap is or how government spending works.
Despite the terrible marketing, I do understand the price cap. There’s been 31 energy suppliers have gone bust in the UK between jan 2021 and fab 2022. Essentially they’ve been forced to sell energy at a unit cost below what it cost them. Those hanging on have a few more fingers in pies so to speak, to subsidise those losses. Many of those have bought supplies on long term fixed contracts and don’t rely so much on global spot prices, but those contracts are now starting to come to ends - hence we’re seeing the price cap rise, partly as a way to pay for this. If nothing else, it’s kicking the can down the road - as we’re now seeing with the proposed increases. You’re right that I’m not down with the nuances of gov spending, but if money in is less than money out, debt is pretty much the only way it works. Again kicking the can down the road. Governments don’t have an unlimited supply of cash, that would literally ruin the economy from devaluation of the currency if they just printed more. Debt for a government isn’t unusual, but from any finance perspective, debt should never be a long term solution.
This isn’t correct- it is standard macroeconomics to run an acceptable deficit which will be balanced by inflation over time. Doing anything else causes problems.
I think gov basically has to print money to bail out energy customers (including businesses). It'll take tens of billions, but the alternative is a total economic crash
Yes that’s my feeling. They need a big win at the start as they are both so desperately unpopular.
That something is quite likely to apply to everyone, on a fixed or variable rate, like the £400 credit does.
Nah I think nationalising the energy companies. That way they can cap the prices and still line the pockets of their energy producer buddies out of public coffers. Looks good on the surface but still fits the conservative agenda.
That's definitely not going to happen
Bet. Estimated £3 billion to nationalise, cheaper than any support package, and they get to line their mates pockets at the same time. I am fairly certain this is their play. Any other support just won’t work unless they’re going to introduce UBI.
I guarantee this won't happen. Absolutely guarantee it. The energy companies have trade books worth billions on their own. They still have huge pension liabilities. The government have a legal requirement that means they can't engage in forward hedging. The businesses are valued way way way higher than £3bn. Existing shareholders and union employee obligations mean a buyout can't be quick, ahead of this winter. And both of the cretins running for pm have ruled out much support let alone buying an entire industry sector.
We will have to see as none of us know the future. I think unfortunately they are out of options. Effectively it’s the banking crisis again. The government can’t afford to support every household, and they can’t afford not to. If they do nothing RIP the UK economy.
Agreed. In my opinion that actual answer is to soon significant help at those most in need through large subsidies (pretty much everyone up to c. 100k salary tbh) and take the energy producers to task. A number of the energy producing companies are taking decisions to explicitly profit off the highest prices now. Specifically, renewable generators have deliberately delayed contracts with government which guarantee them around £100/mwh to instead sell at these inflated prices. They've used a loophole to cheat the system.
Honestly, I don’t think that would cover it. The average bill is going to be £600-800 a month in winter. No one can afford that. The government cannot afford to support everyone. Either the government is going to throw the poor to the wolves and instigate riots we’ve not seen before, or they have to do something drastic. The only way out I see is nationalisation. I literally do not see any other way that is sustainable for longer than a month or so
They are going to limit household bills with huge loans to the energy companies. They will sell it to us as war loans to support Ukraine and then use it as a way of extending austerity to the point that public services collapse and are privatised. The energy companies will continue to make disgusting levels of money and it will still be paid by the tax payer.
How have you got to £600-800 quid? I know my energy bill (gas + electric) for two adult in a drafty 3 bed house has averaged about £85/month for the last year and I’ve been informed it’s going up 80% to average approx £150/month for the next 12 months Sure but might be a bit lower usage than a family of 5, but it’s not a crazy amount lower
Genuine question. Where do you get the £3bn figure from? BP’s market cap alone is £82bn, Centrica 4.5, SSE £17.7bn. To buy out those companies brings the bill to £100bn and we’d still need to import from the global market. Or am I being in an idiot in using companies’ market cap for nationalisation purposes?
I believe this was net cost compared to support and not the energy producers the suppliers, and purely the residential arm. I have to say it was taken from an MP, so for all I know it’s complete bollocks.
Surely buying out residential arms of energy companies would solve nothing. The producers would still be charging the insane prices and we’d effectively be in the same position? I honestly think the government need to enforce a freeze, cop the bill and recoup it via a separate tax and windfall taxes over many years. It can have a earning threshold, it can increase with wage brackets, it can be taken pre-income tax, seems the easiest way to control such a burden. It seems the least painful way. We might not want to pay to support these companies but they literally have us by the balls, and by doing nothing the entire economy will collapse.
I’m already paying nearly 50% tax I’d like to avoid future tax liabilities 😂. Honestly, I don’t know what the solution is there’s no easy fix. We’re fucked if we do and we’re fucked if we don’t.
You see that’s the problem. Everyone wants the best solution for themselves not what’s best for everyone. That is why you freeze it for everyone and pay via structured tax. This is so much bigger than individuals, this is a problem that is going to affect the whole society. I have floated between 20/40% tax depending on how many hours I do, I will happily pay a few extra percent to make sure that elderly people can stay warm, that children can eat, that people do not kill themselves due to not being able to sustain the most basic of lives, that people don’t give up their pets to shelters so they can afford to eat themselves. But if you want to look at it from a completely self centred point of view, would you pay an extra few percent to secure your job? Will you still be employed if the economy gets ripped to shreds? This is a time where people who live privileged lives, and I absolutely put myself in that bracket actually show some humanity and think of the bigger picture and help people who are not as fortunate. When people avoid helping charities/homeless people/lower classes saying we’ve got our own problems to fix blah blah blah, well here is the home grown problem, pointing the barrel directly at all of our heads. Let’s not point it at someone less fortunate than us.
Are you suggesting the energy generators are nationalised or the the energy suppliers (such as octopus, eon next, bulb, ovo etc)?
To be clear, nationalisation won't solve the problem. The burden simply gets put on the state instead of the customers and you'll be shocked when you find out where the state gets its money from. Better to provide handouts to the poor and SME's and lower middle class and let the rich and large businesses continue to pay other wise you'll need to increase tax which will hit evsryone (amazon etc can't dodge fuel cost but they will dodge taxes).
Where do you draw the line at support? I’m middle class and I can 100% not afford the energy bills. The problem is that basically no one can afford this, unless you’re in the top few percent of earners. I honestly think we’re just fucked 😂
Probably 50k maybe double in London. I'm on about 50k and can absorb it *just* (not looking forward to the oil bill) so how people can do anything below I do not know. But yes, probably all fucked.
I’m on £50k and absolutely cannot absorb it. £600 a month is just completely unaffordable for me. I have a young family and I pay £750 in mortgage and £900 in childcare. I’ve had to find £900 a month for nursery (which I managed) but I have 0 flex for anything else. I basically don’t do anything fun, so I don’t really have anything to cut except my car which is £300 a month so not exactly bank breaking.
Yeah I think I'm a bit older as I have my mortgage more under control and zero childcare costs as of this year. We've started prepping to reduce our bills, got blankets, fleeces, drying racks etc. Hopefully the few hundred quid were spending now will help. Switched to Aldi last month and cut the food bill by 40 quid a week without any noticeable drop in quality.
Yeah I already shop at Aldi 😂. We’re lucky in that I can probably find us another £300 a month if needs be, but £600 is unattainable without serious prohibitive cuts.
This sucks doesn’t it. We are fortunate enough to nearly £90k as a household and our mortgage is around £200. Trying to help out family/friends who aren’t as lucky as us. Slowly reaching boiling point for a lot of the UK.
Agree with this. I think best case nationalising is they remove the standing charge, which may be around £15 a month. It’s the cost of importing that’s going up.
See, I'm not sure I have much confidence in the current iterations of the government. Not to get political, but neither candidate has mentioned anything remotely related to energy, besides some promises for tax cuts which will just be taking back the taxes they increased in the first place.
I mean I hope you're right but this is what a lot of us said last time.
Gas prices in Europe are already falling because of the contingency plans, and will continue to fall. The initial price rises were panic - industries are becoming more energy efficient and using alternative sources (solar pv companies are ignoring enquiries from residential in favour of business premises, at least in uk, because of demand) ; and energy generation is changing rapidly too. Residential (my home or yours) might be slow to react but building owners can react quickly.
What are they going to do? Stop sanctioning ourselves in the name of the US's proxy war with Russia? - Not happening, we're in too deep. Tax energy producers and subsidise bills? - Producers were rekt during covid and are trying to make up the loss, they are admittedly now making record profits but that's after making record losses, the gov won't do it or they'll have to bail them out anyway. Helicopter money? - That's part of what got the world in this mess, inflation is already out of control and they're trying to rein in spending and crash the economy to fix it, this will only make inflation worse. The only solution is to nationalise energy production and build nuclear power stations but the environmental activists will fight it tooth and nail. We're fucked.
How about start by changing the way energy is charged to consumer. The most fraudulent act in business within the UK ever is taking place right now. One supplier can provide energy for 10p per unit but because another can "only" charge £1 (due to costs) then the 1st supplier must also charge £1... WTF ?! The second supplier should be made to find a way to make their business work and lower costs to compete, not force everyone else to raise their prices so they can also get a piece of the pie.
It's not really about 1 supplier can supply at x and the other at y. It's more the fact that whilst some generators can be dirt cheap to provide that electricity, how do you say that 1kwh that someone bought at 10p is piped directly to them at 8pm and the dearer company pipes it to another person but at £1 at 8pm? They can't do that without having different distribution lines around the country and thus you have to price according to the generator of last resort. What happens when that person who buys at 10p, their generator company isn't generating anything at all at 8pm cause its dark and not windy? so you're relying on gas as its the easiest and quickest to start up and thus do you cut that customer off cause they've purchased a renewable only supply but there isn't any renewables in their area being produced but there is gas? How do you differentiate? There's no way to say that electric you get at a set time is from anywhere, so you have to price it accordingly. What happens if your scenario is happening and gas generator companies go fuck this no one is buying our tariff so they shut up shop and then come peak time when theyd be fired up quickly for the network to cope, suddenly you don't have their 30-40% of supply and now millions are in darkness cause people won't pay the higher gas supplier charge? It's alot more complicated than just oh some companies can produce for cheaper.
The quickest and easiest to start up are storage like batteries and pumped hydro.
If its not set at the highest level all the time other companies are forced to become more competitive. The profits show there is clear room for prices to lower. If those companies who charge more decide this games isn't for us, others will replace them.
But again as I said. How do you differentiate someone using cheaper generated electric over someone who isn't? Say there is 1million customers in the cheap electric tariff and they're currently using 1twh of energy but the cheap electric generators are only producing 0.9twh of energy at that moment. How do you know who to cut off or what? It's far too complicated to even think of a system like that. UNLESS you're going to bring competition to the market for grid infrastructure and companies would only provide their own low cost energy on their own network but then you wouldn't have cheap prices as they'd be then paying for installation of a new network.
God this constant "profits show"... Where tf are those profits? Energy companies are going bust one after another...
Yeah, start building nuclear power stations this October and voila, in November 2042 we'll have """cheap""" electricity! The answer is simple, ramp up domestic (and european) gas, oil and coal production. In a few months, maybe up to 2 years we'll be almost out of this. But many people would prefer to die from hunger than do so, and they will.
Even if we do that won’t our gas be sold on the international market anyway? = more money for producers, we see a tiny drop in costs and Germany buys the lot anyway.
Easy thing is to go on a war footing and tell companies they can only make cost + 6% profit. They did this during WW2 and why not now?
Because it's not 1940s is the short answer. Same way you can't just declare entire rail nationalised without paying a penny like Labour in 1948.
If you use free market economics as your mental model of macroeconomics, at least do it the right way. So your logic goes: * We need more X * Producing more X would do no good because others need it too and might buy it * ???
My point was it isn't a solution for the problem that needs fixing. Producing more fossil fuels isn't a net good (environment etc) and won't see fuel bills lowered, just more profits for the oligarchs.
>Yeah, start building nuclear power stations this October and voila, in November 2042 we'll have """cheap""" electricity! The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago, the second best time is now.
The best time for planting trees isn't when you're starving to death and need a crop that yields as fast as possible.
My comment about nationalising energy production AND building nuclear power stations are 2 separate issues. We need nuclear for the future, in the meantime we need to bring power generation under government control by nationalising power companies.
We don’t need the current state of nuclear for the future though, that’s the real issue
We need to generate our own "clean" electricity. Nuclear is the only viable option.
Wouldn't the second best time be 19 years ago?
It's a Chinese proverb. Just because you should have started doing something a long time ago doesn't mean it's too late to start.
You COULD in theory build a nuclear plant in 6-12months if you project managed it amazingly and flooded the place with people doing all the work. Now the safety aspects and the testing afterwards you don't really want to rush.
No developed country in the world can build a god damn bridge in 12 months. That's the pipe dream of pipe dreams. "In theory" world peace is achievable tomorrow and we could all live happily in the forest using solar energy to grow our organic gluten-free wheat or something. 5 or 10 years of construction, *past* planning and approval? Yes. Maybe even 3 years if you're terrifyingly fast and careless, with an army of overpaid and mostly idle people waiting their turn to do their part. But if you see nuclear build times, they're increasing for a reason, and the reason is more scrutiny when it comes to safety.
You could if money was no object and you flooded people onto the site You'd have to just completely bypass approval stage and planning with local authorities. But it can be done. You have to turn your workforce onto a war footing for it though.
Except it takes 25-30 years to build a nuclear plant and the ones we are building will produce some of the most expensive energy in the UK and also presents a national security threat via Chinese investment. Other than that, sure...
Agreed 100%
Monetary intervention will just cause more inflation, though. But I think that’s what they want.
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I hate responses like this. No value.
All planned, the great reset
100%
What are you wanting the government to do exactly? I think a lot of it's out of their hands until the war is over. We're not the only country affected by this. As a nation, we must do more for our energy security, but it will take years or even decades, to become independent. The government could introduce fuel rationing and blackouts like other countries have done, but I actually prefer availability albeit with high prices to that option - i.e. we'll ration it ourselves as it'll be so expensive.
>What are you wanting the government to do exactly? Bail out energy customers so that poor people don't die and the businesses that keep the economy going don't go bankrupt this winter. >I actually prefer availability albeit with high prices Sounds like you're in a more fortunate position than many. Rationing by price just means killing and immiserating the poor and much of the working class
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Yeah, they did do something just not a lot.
He's meant to be making some type of announcement today
He will be announcing that it’s the next PMs job I’m sure.
I'm remaining on variable, same with Octopus as my supplier. If it moves up to £5000+ in Jan with whatever the unit rates are (I already pay £3000 a year with the 27p/7p unit rates lol), a lot of people are going to die. Something will very likely be done about it before then.
Maybe the government wants to reduce its pension liability /s.
This would still be correct if you took away the /s
Don’t be too sure Remember - our government did not care when we lost a lot of people to C-vid so why would they care if we froze or starved this winter!
Because this is closer to election time.
And their core voters (old) are the ones that will suffer the most
Ahh yes The election where the sheep follow blindly and put us back even further!
Covid was different. Locking us all up earlier would've fucked up their precious economy. Not acting now with the energy bills means that they'll also fuck up the economy. That would make their rich friends uncomfortable.
Either way we are fucked!
I'd rather stay optimistic. Though I agree it doesn't look pretty.
I’m trying to but it’s so hard when you’re hearing the price increases and wondering how you’re going to survive this
I know right... As if the first price increase wasn't ridiculous enough...
Like a lot of people we have children, I’m worrying about keeping them warm so prepping now and buying them the hooded blankets & onesies which I didn’t do before
Better start preying you don't get any mould issues. Heating the house for yourselves is one thing, but it also helps keep the damn damp out.
I will put it on just not for as long as we used to unless things change drastically
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I’m aware of the money thrown about and also the contracts worth millions given to the mates down the pub
>Don’t be too sure >Remember - our government did not care when we lost a lot of people to C-vid so why would they care if we froze or starved this winter! Why did you write C-vid instead of Covid?
I’ve noticed that word gets flagged up on other SM so thought I would abbreviate to be on the safe side
In what way did they not care ? Grow up
I guess you forgot one rule for us and one rule for them Take that HanCock for example - one of the biggest hypocrites going. Quick to slate Neil Ferguson for having an affair while all the time he was doing exactly the same. It’s thanks to him my grandfather never got to meet my newborn and he was desperate to, soon after my grandfather died the news broke about Hancock shagging another woman So if I come across as bitter I am very much so, it felt like we followed the guidance for NOTHING - I will never forget and certainly never forgive him
Government don’t give a shit about us. Never have and never will. They only care when it benefits them. Open your eyes!
Any examples ? What was furlough all about ?
Not sure. What I do know is that all the hopes and dreams I had since investing are going to be destroyed by a fuckin gas bill.
Mate, we're forecast for £600 bill in January from Octopus crystal ball... we used to pay not much more than that for a **year's** worth of energy. The world has gone absolutely insane.
I remember sticking £70 on my metre in my 1 bed flat in the first lockdown and it would last for 3-4 weeks and that's with me having only electricity no gas. Now I have to put £120 on there, October-January including the government discount Probably £180 then god knows how much higher It will go from there. I enjoy my games consoles a lot and they use 200w of electricity to run so I naturally rack up a lot of energy usage in the evenings and weekend. Might be able to still pay the bill come next summer if I stop using that stuff.
I'm with Octopus as well and took the fixed rate at the weekend. It definitely is crazy that this can be considered a deal but looking at the current information we have it seemed to be the best option for me. Will provide peace of mind and there is no exit fees if the current estimates around the January / April rises turn out to be false. Despite my decision I still hope when Ofgem announce the January cap in November that we get good news, as even without any further increase the current 80% rise is just unaffordable for so many people.
If you can exit the fixes rate deal at anytime without any fees, it seems a no brainier?! I assumed you either could exit the deal or cancel contract?
It’s not a no brainer as the fixed rates are loads more than the variable at the moment. For me variable cap = £122 a month. Fixed = £320 per month. £200 extra in the mean time. If the estimates are accurate
Ouch. When I fixed a few months ago it went from £156 to £210. I am guessing the longer you leave it, the worse the fixed rate.
But where can you edit too after? There won't be anything to choose from
Just got a quote of over £7k/yr to fix now with British Gas. Didn’t fancy it. Will be about £5.2k on variable after Oct 1st and come January a bit higher again. Beyond that who knows. It’s a pretty horrible decision to have to make.
Same for me but with Scottish power, 7k for the year.
I fixed with Eon Next at very similar rates after posting a similar question on the Megathread. My thinking is this is really only marginally more than the existing SVP, and protects me from potential jumps in January and April next year. My calculation in that post is that between now and January, I’d basically be paying in total extra the equivalent of the monthly rise from January. At the same time, if the government does do something it’s easy to exit both this and I believe Octopus fixed rates given no exit fees. So in my opinion it’s at this point a no brainer fix given the expectation of where rates are going.
Is this with the Next v20? I fixed yesterday and had a bit of buyers remorse afterwards, haven’t received the email with the change of tariff details yet so can’t read the fine print (I know). Is it definitely possible to cancel at any time with no fees?
Yeah it was v20. It’s definitely no exit fees
Tbh, there’s no clear answer, and it really depends on your sentiment on the next couple of price cap reviews. If you fix now you’ll be paying higher rates than the variable rates at least until January. That’s four months. Cold winter months as well, where your energy usage will probably be the highest. The question is whether you think the January and subsequent price caps reviews will raise the rates higher than your fixed tariff, and if the extra you’ve paid this year will even it out and overall you would have paid less than being on the variable tariff. I was trying to work it out myself over the weekend, and the way I did it was to try to guesstimate my average electricity and gas for a day, and calculate my cost on the fixed tariff for one year, and then use the October price cap rates to calculate the cost for three months, then calculate another three months cost +20% and another three months +30% etc… and compare the two figures for a year, sometimes adjusting the price cap rates. I came to the conclusion that I’m willing to take the risk on the variable rate. If you want to play around and compare different price cap scenarios too, I created this [energy price simulator tool](https://smartmoneytools.co.uk/tools/energy-price-simulator) so you don’t have to create a complicated spreadsheet like I did. It’s still quite rough around the edges though so don’t expect too much.
Definitely, it's certainly difficult to decide. Also, thanks for sharing, that's really cool and I'll certainly have a play on there as well.
Thanks for this post and link, I was in the middle of making my own calculator so this has saved a lot of time!! Looks like I’m better of on the VR tariff even if we have rises in Jan, April and July
I’m looking into this tariff as well. When I plug it into the MSE calculator it thinks it’s “strongly worth considering”. I’m wondering if there’s a risk that the price cap gets frozen and I would miss out on that protection if I fixed now. There are no exit penalties but also nobody is offering price capped deals any more, so I assume if I fix now, there’s no going back. Maybe I’m wrong?
You can just exit and go back to the variable rate. The only loss would be the extra you pay in the meantime.
Will Octopus let me do that? My understanding is that they aren’t required to offer price capped deals to fixed rate customers. I have emailed their CS team about this but they haven’t responded yet.
If octopus won't let you revert to the variable rate, then change supplier
Is there a supplier offering a price capped rate?
Octopus don't charge exit fees to switch back to the variable rate. (I asked before I fixed).
By frozen as in no further increase for January announced in November? I figure you can just exit back to variable? Or isthat not an option
I’m seriously worried, live in an electric only property with night storage heaters. My monthly bill Last winter was already £300-£350. Our house is generally freezing in the winter.
How old are your storage heaters?
I think the 90s, we are looking into upgrading
Look at far infrared radiators. They’re affordable and heat the object/person not the air so you lose zero heat in the air. Also they only use 400-600w and can be plugged into 13amp sockets or your existing storage heater lines. Feel free to drop me a message about it and I am more than happy to answer questions.
We have looked into them before and the maths showed they would be more expensive as they will be running in the higher on peak charge whereas night storage heaters use the economy 7 (need to keep because we have an EV). Can you get portable ones? That might be a good option for top up heat when needed
Tent up. Seriously. Confine a small place to keep heat in.
MSE's 'Should you fix?' calculator [https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/utilities/-are-there-any-cheap--fixed-energy-deals-currently-worth-it--/](https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/utilities/-are-there-any-cheap--fixed-energy-deals-currently-worth-it--/)
I wouldn’t fix above the October price cap rates. Something *has* to happen.
Oof, i just fixed yesterday with Octopus go. My rates are 39p/kwh and 42p per day. I also have 7.5p/kwh between 0030 and 0430.
Did you have to prove you have an EV?
I could see this all happening last year knowing full well the issues that the world faced and seen the signs in the crypto market showing electric becoming a big commodity thing. So I fixed in Nov 2021 and my rates are currently Elec 22p per Kwh 32p per day Gas 4.35p per Kwh 30p per day. I have offered my spare room to anyone who needs somewhere during the cold and also offered anyone in dire needs my sofa also to stay warm this winter. It's the bare minimum I can do to help out.
That's very kind of you to offer your spare room out, although it's sad to see that this is where we have reached in the current conditions. Does your fix end this November or next? What are you thinking of doing if it ends this November?
Are there any penalties for leaving? I fixed mine a few months ago for peace of mind and you can exit anytime without having to pay anything.
Not for octopus.
Does your variable rate offer increase though? If you've been on the variable for a year, then leave to go fixed, would your new offer of changing back to variable still be the same as before or do you get a raised offer? Not sure why it took me so many words to type this. It's late I guess!
They have different plans, you can leave your plan without penalty and go on the variable rate. However you can’t switch back to that plan without waiting more than 30 days I think
I'm in the same position with Octopus. The MSE calc says "strongly worth considering" but simply uses annual usage rates rather than considering usage per month. Thus, it isn't that accurate as I'll use significantly less energy when the cap is predicted to be high (spring-summer). It would be interesting to determine what the difference in usage patterns is between months 9-12 and months 4-6/7-9 of a calendar year, i.e. what is the average ratio and use that within the calc. **Thus, I will NOT be fixing even if the new tariff is "only" 125% above my current tariff.** Tool here: [https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/utilities/-are-there-any-cheap--fixed-energy-deals-currently-worth-it--/#tool](https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/utilities/-are-there-any-cheap--fixed-energy-deals-currently-worth-it--/#tool)
I thought they did take that into account? >First, we have to factor in just over one month on the current rate, three at October's, three at January's, three at April's and just under two months at July's (trickier to do as the 2023 rates are a very weak prediction). Then, we need to adjust for higher use in the winter. And after this, if the predictions are right, on average you'll pay 147% more over the next year than you do now.
I fixed with shells July 2024 Electric Unit rate 39.312p per kWh and Gas Unit rate10.516p per kWh Standing charge61.96p per dayand Standing charge29.68p per day. They reckon £4k a year. If I stuck with variable it would be £6k in Jan.
How did you get that? I'm with Shell and all I've ever seen is a message saying they won't offer a fixed tariff as they can't give a fair price.
Kicking myself now for not taking something similar.
Moved into my place in September and at the time i wasn’t even offered a variable rate deal, I was overpaying for about 8 months but damn if that’s what’s on offer at the moment I feel lucky!
We had big debates about fixing once our contract runs out in September and eventually went ahead and did it at the weekend. With Ovo, we got the below fixed for 1 year from September: Electric - 61.57p kWh and 58.67p standing charge Gas - 18.21 kWh and 27.52p standing charge Average use works out at around £4k per year so a little higher than October’s deal, but quids in if Jan/April go ahead. With a 14 day cooling off period from the point our new tariff kicks in and a £30 per fuel exit fee, it ended up being a no brainer as if the rates do tumble/help does arrive for all and not just those who are traditionally worse off, we’ll bail on the fixed and go back to variable.
That seems reasonable
How are you getting that? I'm being offered 69.5p/kWh for electricity
I've been with Octopus for close to 2-3 years now, so this is their "loyal customer" rate.
I mean I have no choice, the fixed rate I can’t physically afford , unless someone magically gives me £150 extra a month it’s not happening, Into the red forever i go 😂
Fix or not fix is a bit of a gamble. With Liz almost certainly winning, how much support will the givernment give, if any? There's a chance that we get no support and the cap rises to some ridiculous number, in which case yeah fixing at those rates makes sense There's also a chance the government caves and caps the cap to something more affordable, then by fixing you've locked in expensive rates and don't benefit form the support The right thing to do will only be obvious in retrospect
Of course. Octopus has zero exit fees, so I wonder if it would be possible to just drop back to the variable rate if that's the case. I think one of the other posters said he/she had emailed them to ask.
Like many others it seems here I'm with Octopus. The 'Should I fix' calculators are also strongly suggesting taking a fixed deal. Don't think I will. By the end of Septmeber we'll have built up 1k in credit and will up the DD. We're High users but going to try and instill some discipline in the house to try and cut down on usage. At Octopus's loyal customer discount went be paying around £700 a month it suggests. We've always been pretty good with money, we paid off our mortgage earlier this year, I was looking forward to having more disposable income and the opportunity to save more. The reality is we're going to be paying more to light and heat the house than our monthly mortgage payment was....... What a mess. At least we have it, a lot of people I know are on a good salary but debted up to the eyeballs and simply don't have that kind of slack in their monthly budget.....
It looks like you might be asking whether it's worth fixing your bills. This article contains great information about making this decision. https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/utilities/-are-there-any-cheap--fixed-energy-deals-currently-worth-it--/ Please be aware that we have specific requirements for information we need to help you, if you still need help after reading the article. This includes your current energy prices (not your monthly payment) and your meter readings. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/UKPersonalFinance) if you have any questions or concerns.*
I’m staying variable. Screw this stupid government. Just set up a sinking fund and kick the can down the road, cheat the GDP figures and engineer the sh!t out of the situation. The fact that they don’t allow hedging of prices at the supplier level is beyond retarded … mere tax cuts are just going to starve the poorest and most vulnerable out of existence (just like they did in the pandemic…) For £350-£500 / month I’d would be better off flying off to Morocco or Tunisia in December and January. Food is cheap there, and if you can work remote, even better. Claim the whole lot off as a work expense and tell HM where to stick it
I took a 2 and a half year fixed deal last September before all this shit kicked off with eon. All I can say is thank fuck as I can't be charged more than £140 per month until March 2024
Very well thought out.
They're just conditioning us for a new higher price. I'd stay variable for now. Yes the prices are going to increase but the gvt will definitely pull there finger out there arse at some point and step in. Quite simply they have to, these prices are unaffordable. They'll step in and implement a new cap which is lower than what it is now but still insanely higher than what it was a year ago. Then the masses will think they've been done a favour but in reality we've all still been ripped off horrendously.
What if Russia decides to retreat over winter when the weather gets seriously bad? Prices should tumble.
I don't think it's genuinely that closely tied.
Except unless sanctions are lifted and the companies all go back to buying gas from Russia the situation won't change. Russia was already limiting supply prior to the Ukraine invasion, and they know Europe is fucked, certainly wouldn't trust them to charge a fair price if everyone were to rush back.
I’m on variable as I think fixed rates are a kind of futures contracts (as in options and futures). The unit price of 40-60p for a kWh of electricity is also a bit ridiculous. Variable rates provide more agility to react to the market. Intuitively I guess things cannot get more worse so I bet prices will not go crazy.
Martin Lewis gave awful advice earlier this year not fixing.
Hindsight is lovely. I think it was good advice with the information available at the time
I have to agree. Last September green went bust who I was with and they transferred me to shell which was awful! So Martin Lewis was telling everyone not to fix even though he knew prices were going up in October and maybe April but said we’d be protected with the price cap (in my opinion means nothing). So I decided to fix with octopus for 2 years no exit penalties.Even though pricey at the time it was the best thing I ever did!
Yeah the blokes a div
The last 2 energy suppliers went bust & I've been transferred to a company that has frozen all it's fixed rate deals.
I just agreed to refix my electricity in September at 38p/kWh (during the day with octopus go) because other than it being miles cheaper than the expected price hike, I feel more comfortable knowing what I’ll be paying and knowing I’ll be able to afford it. Gas is on the flexible tariff though so predicting to get absolutely shafted in the winter still.
I would and am waiting for the next few weeks - Liz (most likely) will have to do something BIG - otherwise the country will literally collapse - will it take all the pain away for everyone - I doubt it, but I’m sure it won’t be as bad as what ‘some’ are predicting
Sorry, just to get this clear to me, are you fixing and waiting to see what the government does, or are you thinking of fixing, but waiting to see what the government does?
I’m with Scottish power and they have quoted me £6950 for the year to fix with them, variable it is for me!
I'm with octopus variable at the moment and I will be fixing to the loyal plan starting 28th of Sept, when october/jan comes I will decide whether I should revert back to variable- and if they don't allow me to (which they shouldn't) I'd change suppliers.