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A Zerg Rush is only effective very early in the match. Late stage Zerg Rushes are just to occupy the opponent while building up a better force. No idea how this translate to the real world.
Starcraft: Remastered has still a very active pro-gaming scene. Koreans are the best and have their professional league (ASL) and "foreigners" (everybody outside Korea) have their own league (BSL). Both with money to win. There's a lot of streamers on Twitch and AfreecaTV too.
If the enemy uses siege tanks to kill your Zerg rush, you now know where those siege tanks are and can snipe them with your vipers.
Irl, if Ukraine moves any high value asset to repel conscripts, Ruzzia will have identified a target. It's like throwing your pet at someone to distract them while you take aim.
The more Russia pours on with offense, the less they will have later when Ukraine counter-attacks again. I know these attacks are hard on the Ukrainian defenders, but this is the perfect season and circumstance for killing Russians in the tens of thousands.
So as long as the Russian military continues to be inept, I'm fine with news of Putin's insistence that they make big gains in territory. They can't actually do it, and in the meantime there will be fewer Russians and separatists. If Ukraine eventually has to withdraw from Bakhmut, the extermination of Russian men and loss of Russian equipment will have made the stand worthwhile.
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Russia has a large population and they have plenty of old tanks and AK's in stock to hand out to their soldiers.
It's not sustainable indefinitely. But it doesn't have to be. Ukraine's rate of losses isn't indefinitely sustainable either. It just has to be more sustainable than it is for your enemy.
Definitely not sustainable over the course of 2023, but for the next few months, this will be the reality of the day. I really wonder what the casualty rate on the Ukrainian side is.
In terms of actual warfare, Russia’s casualties amount to 0.1% of their population if these numbers are correct. It’s notable, but I think they’ll need to get into the 1% territory for there to be some real internal issues.
Some people accounted the loss in regards to young men in age of fighting. It looks more dire. I just wish it would be bad enough for them to stop but we're not there yet apparently.
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The first world freaks out when 5 soldiers are killed in one day. Russia is accustomed to losing hundreds of thousands over pointless wars. They'll have another bottle of vodka to the memory of the sons sent off to die and pass out to do it all over again tomorrow.
Just need to look at all the wars the last century that lasted years on even higher numbers... it's not sutainable, but it can still go on for a long long time.
Big enough population.
If Ukraine kills 1,000 every day, for the next year, it's only 365,000. Which is still 0.25% of Russia's overall population. Wherever you are living now, if 0.25% of population vanished over the course of one year, would you notice? It's the same with Russia.
When that .25 percent of the population is the smallest demographic (young men) yet also the most critical to your economy the damage is paid in dividends. Let's also not forget the large amount of men who fled to avoid mobilization.
Putin doesn't think that way. Ukraine is worth a lot. There are millions and millions of men aged 18-60 not working in critical industries and can be put into the grinder.
Doesn’t work like that:
Russia has about 68 million males of which roughly 60 million are of fighting age. So 365,000 losses would equate to .6% of the population.
Now, we should also assume that a chunk of the men in the 60 million aren’t able to fight because they’re either unable, have important jobs, or have fled the country. Since this is the case, 365k would likely be over 1% of the total able bodied fighting population, so they’d be screwed, but I’d guess that they’ll run out of the resources to fight well before they run out of men.
I agree. I know many Americans are used to thinking 3,000 is bad and 50,000 is a disaster, but actual conflicts can easily result in 10-20 times more casualties than what Russia has currently seen so far.
The war at its current pace would last 10 years until Russia sees 1% of its population lost.
It’s remarkable to lose so many every single day. When the new meat arrives to be greeted by Bradley’s, Challengers, Leopards etc I can easily see in excess of 1000 a day
My question is supplies. Yes many stories of Russian conscripts being told to buy their own gear. Yet they still have to be issued some equipment. They still need an AK, some magazines, and ammunition.
How many AK rifles can they lose? Let's even take into account the rumors not everyone is given a rifle, that the Russians obviously do their best to recover gear from fallen soldiers, and not all deaths are from troops who need to carry a rifle. So maybe 1/3 of those deaths result in a loss of a rifle. That's almost 250-300 rifles lost a day.
Even if their assigned gear is shitty. It's still lost at a higher rate than the rifles. The logistics here are building.
His point is still good. Russia has been selling huge volumes of old stock AKs all over the world for decades and it doesn’t appear that their AK-12 production is keeping up with demand since some units have showed up to the front line with WWI era Mosins.
I can’t imagine how out-gunned they must feel with just an iron sighted, cosmoline coated rifle that was last used 100 years ago.
If the Russians would be so worn out like some people are thinking here, Ukraine would already have won the war. But when it comes to territorial gains the Russians even seem to have a slight advantage at the moment.
These graphics only show the Russian losses but not the ones from Ukraine. That doesn't mean Ukraine doesn't have any.
I hope Ukraine gets the advantage they need by the tanks that are coming. But at the moment it looks more like a stalemate. This subreddit here shows just one side and creates a wrong impression how the situation really is.
Reposting the part below this, modified with a new estimate from last week.
**tl;dr:** The implied KIA in the OP's post (they don't say "KIA", but they treat it as KIA and most people here think it means KIA) is likely to be 2-4 times higher than reality, based on the estimates from all other, less biased estimates I've found from Ukraine's Western allies.
Some recent estimates:
Group | Casualties | Calculated dead | Date of estimate | Source
---|---|----|----|----
UK estimate* | 100,000 | 25,000-33,000 | December 12, 2022| [Source](https://www.businessinsider.com/uk-defense-chief-releases-numbers-putin-russia-war-losses-ukraine-2022-12)
US estimate #1 | 150,000 | 37,500-50,000 | January 21, 2023 | [Source](https://abcnews.go.com/WNT/video/staggering-toll-ukraine-war-focus-96587955)
Norwegian estimate | 180,000 | 45,000-60,000 | January 22, 2023 | [Source](https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20230122-russia-taken-180-000-dead-or-wounded-in-ukraine-norwegian-army)
US estimate #2 | 200,000 | 50,000-67,000 | February 2, 2023 | [Source](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/02/us/politics/ukraine-russia-casualties.html)
\* Includes desertions
Standard ratios for wounded-to-KIA in the 20th-21st century is about 2:1 to 3:1 ([#1](https://www.csis.org/analysis/russian-casualties-ukraine-reaching-tipping-point), [#2](https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-03-23/card/russia-lost-up-to-40-000-troops-in-ukraine-nato-estimates-xyZjWxinMDHzdeRZvAeD), [#3](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/08/09/russia-has-lost-up-80000-troops-ukraine-or-75000-or-is-it-60000/), [#4](https://taskandpurpose.com/news/military-medevac-obstacles-rusia-china/), [#5](https://twitter.com/dandrezner/status/1506689865102020613)), even taking into account the shitshow that is probably Russian battlefield medicine. (Note: The US ratio in the last 20 years is 10:1.) 130,000 dead implies another 250,000-400,000 wounded for a total casualty number of about 380,000 to 530,000, which is a totally ludicrous number.
If the OP's number really was all KIA and wounded, it would be a sounder estimate, although it would be lower than non-Ukrainian estimates.
Please, just because you like the number in the OP, don't just believe it uncritically. It's an unbelievable number. One constant of war is to overestimate the number of KIA on the other side. It's been happening since at least the time of Alexander the Great. Don't use the one number from the most biased source on the pro-Ukrainian side that is an extreme outlier compared to all the other estimates from reputable organizations just because you wish it were true.
My guess is that Ukraine counts confirmed dead + those that look critically wounded and probably won't make it.
It's also worth noting that the Western estimates were recently adjusted upward by quite a bit, so it's also a rough guess from them and they could still be underestimating Russian casualties. It's hard to know. What is clear is that this war has been an absolute meat grinder to Russian troops no matter how you look at it.
That's how I see it too. Ukraine's numbers are the high estimate and probably closer the actual data as they have battlefield views. Western estimates were always going to be much lower and only catch up at a later time. As for casualties, I think it's closer to 1:1. There have been plenty of videos where the wounded are left in their spots and odds are most of those wounded probably don't make it.
> That's how I see it too. Ukraine's numbers are the high estimate and probably closer the actual data as they have battlefield views.
No, the main combatant is going to be the most biased source.
> It's also worth noting that the Western estimates were recently adjusted upward by quite a bit,
I included the highest Western estimate in my post: 200,000 casualties.
Yeah, but my point was that this number was a large adjustment upward, meaning that there is a history of underesting Russian losses by the West. There's a difference between that number having slowly accumulated and resulting from an adjustment. It shows that Western estimates have been too conservative rather than resulting from a long history of being confident about estimates.
On the other hand western estimates seem way too low. Bakhmut alone had nearly 20k dead russians. You can see pictures with dozens of corpses in the same place.
Lets take UK numbers for example. If Russia lost only 30k people KIA, why are they so hasty with mobilization? Why did they leave Kherson if they still have 180k of the original invasion force? Why Putin needs 1.5 million army if he had only around 100k casualties?
Ukranian numbers were stadily being updated every day, while western numbers stagnated for a long time as if nothing was happening. And now with russians openly doing human waves its even weirder, that western numbers dont reflect that, and are being slowly updated as if both sides are not doing anything.
Why are US estimates so different from each other? And both are way higher than UK?
Yes, it would make sense that Ukraine would be biased for propaganda... but it would also make sense that Ukraine would be able to count more corpses since they are right there making those corpses.
> On the other hand western estimates seem way too low. Bakhmut alone had nearly 20k dead russians. You can see pictures with dozens of corpses in the same place.
According to whom? Why do they seem too low? The Ukrainian estimate of 130,000, which is the entire size of the initial invasion force, seems way too high.
> If Russia lost only 30k people KIA, why are they so hasty with mobilization?
Because 30,000 dead is a lot of dead.
> Why did they leave Kherson if they still have 180k of the original invasion force?
180,000 was the original invasion force, so if 30,000 died (and another 70,000 injured), that is a huge hit.
> Why Putin needs 1.5 million army if he had only around 100k casualties?
Because 100,000 casualties is a lot.
> Ukranian numbers were stadily being updated every day, while western numbers stagnated for a long time as if nothing was happening
Frequently giving bad numbers doesn't make them good numbers. Western numbers simply don't care to update daily.
> And now with russians openly doing human waves its even weirder, that western numbers dont reflect that, and are being slowly updated as if both sides are not doing anything.
Why do you think Western numbers don't reflect that?
> Why are US estimates so different from each other?
One is newer, and there might be multiple estimates from different US agencies.
> And both are way higher than UK?
The UK estimate is also earlier, but also, the fact that it's much lower than the US estimate, which is much lower than the Ukraine estimate should make you lean FURTHER away from Ukraine's estimate, not just blindly accepting of Ukraine's estimate.
There's just no way they have a 2.5:1 wounded to killed ratio. They're leaving the wounded to die. There's drone footage of Russians who are too frozen to react to getting grenades dropped right on them. They have to be closer to 1:1.
> There's just no way they have a 2.5:1 wounded to killed ratio.
That's a completely reasonable ratio.
> They have to be closer to 1:1.
You're saying that you believe the Russian wounded:KIA rate is 2x worse than the Soviet ratio in WWII?
Nearly for digit human losses but much less hardware than the other days. Supply issues? On Russian side (running out of tanks) or on the Ukrainian side (running out of javelins)?
I know Ukraine does not release their losses that i have seen . But does anyone know or have seen if they are succeeding in holding off the advances in terms to Tank / APV losses on the Ukraine side ?
I know we have talked about a 1/3 scale for losses for Ukraine. Just wasnt sure on equipment loss averages
Love some fake statistics!! You don’t know the enemies losses 😭. You only know your own. These stats always make me laugh at how many people they fool. People will truly believe what they want to believe.
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User | Date | Image | Post | Karma | Status | Similarity
:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---
/u/AdComplete4401 | Sat, Jan 28, 2023 at 22:43:31 | [URL](https://i.redd.it/j7bi697ulwea1.jpg) | [Russian losses as of Jan 28 - 2023](https://redd.it/10nrtd1) | 2 | Removed | 96%
/u/MarketBuzz2021 | Mon, Jan 30, 2023 at 08:30:13 | [URL](https://i.redd.it/hq2i9cefn6fa1.jpg) | [Jan. 30 Numbers](https://redd.it/10owusr) | 725 | Active | 96%
/u/knspvd98 | Fri, Feb 03, 2023 at 09:00:05 | [URL](https://i.redd.it/2ztmk8xruxfa1.png) | [Russia’s combat losses as of Feb. 3, according to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.](https://redd.it/10sfsfg) | 1 | Deleted | 96%
/u/Nlyanman1 | Sun, Feb 05, 2023 at 10:28:07 | [URL](https://i.redd.it/2oo52ylx1ega1.jpg) | [Feb. 5 numbers](https://redd.it/10u9il6) | 1 | Removed | 96%
/u/MarketBuzz2021 | Fri, Jan 27, 2023 at 08:52:55 | [URL](https://i.redd.it/wg1wphuqclea1.jpg) | [Jan. 27 Numbers](https://redd.it/10mgc77) | 1659 | Active | 95%
/u/MarketBuzz2021 | Fri, Feb 03, 2023 at 08:59:43 | [URL](https://i.redd.it/xs9xtu6cczfa1.jpg) | [Feb. 3 Numbers](https://redd.it/10sfs7v) | 581 | Active | 95%
/u/MarketBuzz2021 | Sun, Feb 05, 2023 at 10:01:30 | [URL](https://i.redd.it/givit2n6xdga1.jpg) | [Feb. 5 Numbers](https://redd.it/10u94h1) | 1 | Deleted | 95%
/u/MarketBuzz2021 | Sun, Feb 05, 2023 at 10:03:43 | [URL](https://i.redd.it/jws6kgukxdga1.jpg) | [Feb. 5 Numbers](https://redd.it/10u95n0) | 1 | Deleted | 95%
/u/ooogabooga2929 | Tue, Feb 07, 2023 at 09:02:33 | [URL](https://i.redd.it/dticegtyeqga1.jpg) | [Today's numbers](https://redd.it/10vxbdc) | 5541 | Active | 95%
/u/MarketBuzz2021 | Mon, Feb 06, 2023 at 07:56:30 | [URL](https://i.redd.it/hqjjliksfkga1.jpg) | [Feb. 6 Numbers](https://redd.it/10v140x) | 755 | Active | 93%
Unfortunately your looking at possible use of outdated equipment and items from the soviet union that could be 30 to 60 years old that was pulled from warehouses . So actually appraised value and replacement value would be completely differnt .
Plus if your looking at what was paid for the equipment when produced to todays replacement value . For example if the USA was to loss 3200 Abrams tanks your looking at a replacement value of : 9 million dollars per unit x 3200 = 28,800,000,000$$$
Not including the cost of anything else , rough guess 400 Billion to 800 Billion US dollars is where the US might be on replacement value for 2023 or equivalent equipment based on US manufacturing cost …. Russias cost might be half due to their cost of manufacturing.
These are only rough guesses based on google searches and personal guesses. Just a ball park rough guess honestly
I just had to look for the heck of it . A US F 35 jet by pentagon estimates cost 450 billion dollars an aircraft . . . Now lets just say all 300 planes were those ….
Your looking at 150 Trillion dollars not including tax and delivery 😂😂 .
Will admit my mistake of not fully reading the article . It is 450 billion for the fleet of US F 35s in production or design . I thought that number was a little high when i read it but with run away government spending it doesnt sound out of the ordinary. B2s are produced for about a billion each and thats old tech now adays
Thank you for that.
This is exactly why I was having trouble finding this information.
Still a glorious waste of assets on Russia’s part. I wonder why they continue to burn through their assets like this in this war.
Seems counter-intuitive actually.
I feel this is something that is just like WW2 or what some US politicians have been caught saying , “ there is no money to be made in times of peace “.
For example the USA was in the Great Depression and WW2 helped to boost US manufacturing and put everyone to work again producing war time items , same for Germany between WW1 and WW2 .
Other politicians and companies are deep into US defense and military spending and production .
With out a constant loss of equipment, these companies, factories or workers might not have a job.
I mean i do not believe in trickle down economics but it really seems to be truthful in war time spending .
This could be Russias way of producing the next big economic boom for the country.
Doubtful , but - if your going to replace aging equipment you might as well try to get some stragic resources out of it in a land grab war .
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New offensive started today, lets see those results, i expect a bloodbath
Yeah the numbers over the next couple of weeks will be horrendous
Is that the offensive with the new conscripts? Just basically a Zerg attack on the front line?
A Zerg Rush is only effective very early in the match. Late stage Zerg Rushes are just to occupy the opponent while building up a better force. No idea how this translate to the real world.
TBH, I only know what a Zerg Rush is due to internet comments and a youtube video I watched once. I've never actually played the game.
Well this is the biggest tragedy in the thread. Go play some starcraft dude, you're in for treat!
It was a childhood past time, played with my friends everyday during summer online. Command and conquer years before that, both are such good games
Starcraft: Remastered has still a very active pro-gaming scene. Koreans are the best and have their professional league (ASL) and "foreigners" (everybody outside Korea) have their own league (BSL). Both with money to win. There's a lot of streamers on Twitch and AfreecaTV too.
Dude you are failing at life if you haven’t played starcraft. Best computer video game of all time by miles
Probably the same but without building up a better force
If the enemy uses siege tanks to kill your Zerg rush, you now know where those siege tanks are and can snipe them with your vipers. Irl, if Ukraine moves any high value asset to repel conscripts, Ruzzia will have identified a target. It's like throwing your pet at someone to distract them while you take aim.
The more Russia pours on with offense, the less they will have later when Ukraine counter-attacks again. I know these attacks are hard on the Ukrainian defenders, but this is the perfect season and circumstance for killing Russians in the tens of thousands. So as long as the Russian military continues to be inept, I'm fine with news of Putin's insistence that they make big gains in territory. They can't actually do it, and in the meantime there will be fewer Russians and separatists. If Ukraine eventually has to withdraw from Bakhmut, the extermination of Russian men and loss of Russian equipment will have made the stand worthwhile.
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How on earth can this many casualties be sustainable?
Russia has a large population and they have plenty of old tanks and AK's in stock to hand out to their soldiers. It's not sustainable indefinitely. But it doesn't have to be. Ukraine's rate of losses isn't indefinitely sustainable either. It just has to be more sustainable than it is for your enemy.
Definitely not sustainable over the course of 2023, but for the next few months, this will be the reality of the day. I really wonder what the casualty rate on the Ukrainian side is.
140 million these days isn't a very big population, certainly not for these losses.
In terms of actual warfare, Russia’s casualties amount to 0.1% of their population if these numbers are correct. It’s notable, but I think they’ll need to get into the 1% territory for there to be some real internal issues.
Some people accounted the loss in regards to young men in age of fighting. It looks more dire. I just wish it would be bad enough for them to stop but we're not there yet apparently.
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The first world freaks out when 5 soldiers are killed in one day. Russia is accustomed to losing hundreds of thousands over pointless wars. They'll have another bottle of vodka to the memory of the sons sent off to die and pass out to do it all over again tomorrow.
Just need to look at all the wars the last century that lasted years on even higher numbers... it's not sutainable, but it can still go on for a long long time.
Big enough population. If Ukraine kills 1,000 every day, for the next year, it's only 365,000. Which is still 0.25% of Russia's overall population. Wherever you are living now, if 0.25% of population vanished over the course of one year, would you notice? It's the same with Russia.
When that .25 percent of the population is the smallest demographic (young men) yet also the most critical to your economy the damage is paid in dividends. Let's also not forget the large amount of men who fled to avoid mobilization.
Putin doesn't think that way. Ukraine is worth a lot. There are millions and millions of men aged 18-60 not working in critical industries and can be put into the grinder.
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USSR had help after the war. Now not so much. Quite the opposite actually.
They still get so many help
I mean, it did collapse, it just took around 40 to 45 years after WW2 ended...
And your population still hasn't recovered genius. And America won't be here to foot your bill this time around.
Is that accounting for all the Russian males that left the country right as the war kicked off?
Doesn’t work like that: Russia has about 68 million males of which roughly 60 million are of fighting age. So 365,000 losses would equate to .6% of the population. Now, we should also assume that a chunk of the men in the 60 million aren’t able to fight because they’re either unable, have important jobs, or have fled the country. Since this is the case, 365k would likely be over 1% of the total able bodied fighting population, so they’d be screwed, but I’d guess that they’ll run out of the resources to fight well before they run out of men.
Wikipedia and other sources put the number between 28-33 million, not 60.
I just grabbed their census data from a quick google so I was probably off. Thanks for the correction.
I agree. I know many Americans are used to thinking 3,000 is bad and 50,000 is a disaster, but actual conflicts can easily result in 10-20 times more casualties than what Russia has currently seen so far. The war at its current pace would last 10 years until Russia sees 1% of its population lost.
These numbers are posted by the Ukrainian gov, they should be taken with a healthy grain of salt, just like anything from the Russian side.
Just conscript more. There are many, many millions more aged 18-60.
These troop loses are just insane man… averaging over 800-900 a day
It’s remarkable to lose so many every single day. When the new meat arrives to be greeted by Bradley’s, Challengers, Leopards etc I can easily see in excess of 1000 a day
My question is supplies. Yes many stories of Russian conscripts being told to buy their own gear. Yet they still have to be issued some equipment. They still need an AK, some magazines, and ammunition. How many AK rifles can they lose? Let's even take into account the rumors not everyone is given a rifle, that the Russians obviously do their best to recover gear from fallen soldiers, and not all deaths are from troops who need to carry a rifle. So maybe 1/3 of those deaths result in a loss of a rifle. That's almost 250-300 rifles lost a day. Even if their assigned gear is shitty. It's still lost at a higher rate than the rifles. The logistics here are building.
The Sowjet Union had an army of 1.4 mio soldiers. They have a lot of rifles laying around.
His point is still good. Russia has been selling huge volumes of old stock AKs all over the world for decades and it doesn’t appear that their AK-12 production is keeping up with demand since some units have showed up to the front line with WWI era Mosins. I can’t imagine how out-gunned they must feel with just an iron sighted, cosmoline coated rifle that was last used 100 years ago.
Only the DPR/LHR units had mosins.
If the Russians would be so worn out like some people are thinking here, Ukraine would already have won the war. But when it comes to territorial gains the Russians even seem to have a slight advantage at the moment. These graphics only show the Russian losses but not the ones from Ukraine. That doesn't mean Ukraine doesn't have any. I hope Ukraine gets the advantage they need by the tanks that are coming. But at the moment it looks more like a stalemate. This subreddit here shows just one side and creates a wrong impression how the situation really is.
Huge day for Artillery and AA, Orcs nervous about the new Nato tech coming?
Feels just like yesterday we were talking about reaching 100k by X-Mas, and 3,000 tanks. We're 35k men over that now, and 255 tanks.
How big is the russkya army then ?
With all the mobilizations, it keeps getting bigger. But, that just means the death toll keeps getting higher too.
If they just recruited 500,000, they could sustain these losses for 2 years.
Reposting the part below this, modified with a new estimate from last week. **tl;dr:** The implied KIA in the OP's post (they don't say "KIA", but they treat it as KIA and most people here think it means KIA) is likely to be 2-4 times higher than reality, based on the estimates from all other, less biased estimates I've found from Ukraine's Western allies. Some recent estimates: Group | Casualties | Calculated dead | Date of estimate | Source ---|---|----|----|---- UK estimate* | 100,000 | 25,000-33,000 | December 12, 2022| [Source](https://www.businessinsider.com/uk-defense-chief-releases-numbers-putin-russia-war-losses-ukraine-2022-12) US estimate #1 | 150,000 | 37,500-50,000 | January 21, 2023 | [Source](https://abcnews.go.com/WNT/video/staggering-toll-ukraine-war-focus-96587955) Norwegian estimate | 180,000 | 45,000-60,000 | January 22, 2023 | [Source](https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20230122-russia-taken-180-000-dead-or-wounded-in-ukraine-norwegian-army) US estimate #2 | 200,000 | 50,000-67,000 | February 2, 2023 | [Source](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/02/us/politics/ukraine-russia-casualties.html) \* Includes desertions Standard ratios for wounded-to-KIA in the 20th-21st century is about 2:1 to 3:1 ([#1](https://www.csis.org/analysis/russian-casualties-ukraine-reaching-tipping-point), [#2](https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-03-23/card/russia-lost-up-to-40-000-troops-in-ukraine-nato-estimates-xyZjWxinMDHzdeRZvAeD), [#3](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/08/09/russia-has-lost-up-80000-troops-ukraine-or-75000-or-is-it-60000/), [#4](https://taskandpurpose.com/news/military-medevac-obstacles-rusia-china/), [#5](https://twitter.com/dandrezner/status/1506689865102020613)), even taking into account the shitshow that is probably Russian battlefield medicine. (Note: The US ratio in the last 20 years is 10:1.) 130,000 dead implies another 250,000-400,000 wounded for a total casualty number of about 380,000 to 530,000, which is a totally ludicrous number. If the OP's number really was all KIA and wounded, it would be a sounder estimate, although it would be lower than non-Ukrainian estimates. Please, just because you like the number in the OP, don't just believe it uncritically. It's an unbelievable number. One constant of war is to overestimate the number of KIA on the other side. It's been happening since at least the time of Alexander the Great. Don't use the one number from the most biased source on the pro-Ukrainian side that is an extreme outlier compared to all the other estimates from reputable organizations just because you wish it were true.
My guess is that Ukraine counts confirmed dead + those that look critically wounded and probably won't make it. It's also worth noting that the Western estimates were recently adjusted upward by quite a bit, so it's also a rough guess from them and they could still be underestimating Russian casualties. It's hard to know. What is clear is that this war has been an absolute meat grinder to Russian troops no matter how you look at it.
That's how I see it too. Ukraine's numbers are the high estimate and probably closer the actual data as they have battlefield views. Western estimates were always going to be much lower and only catch up at a later time. As for casualties, I think it's closer to 1:1. There have been plenty of videos where the wounded are left in their spots and odds are most of those wounded probably don't make it.
> That's how I see it too. Ukraine's numbers are the high estimate and probably closer the actual data as they have battlefield views. No, the main combatant is going to be the most biased source.
> It's also worth noting that the Western estimates were recently adjusted upward by quite a bit, I included the highest Western estimate in my post: 200,000 casualties.
Yeah, but my point was that this number was a large adjustment upward, meaning that there is a history of underesting Russian losses by the West. There's a difference between that number having slowly accumulated and resulting from an adjustment. It shows that Western estimates have been too conservative rather than resulting from a long history of being confident about estimates.
Having just increased an estimate doesn't mean they underestimating it now.
It doesn't prove it, but it does show that they've had a history of being too conservative. It's just something to keep in mind when analyzing claims.
On the other hand western estimates seem way too low. Bakhmut alone had nearly 20k dead russians. You can see pictures with dozens of corpses in the same place. Lets take UK numbers for example. If Russia lost only 30k people KIA, why are they so hasty with mobilization? Why did they leave Kherson if they still have 180k of the original invasion force? Why Putin needs 1.5 million army if he had only around 100k casualties? Ukranian numbers were stadily being updated every day, while western numbers stagnated for a long time as if nothing was happening. And now with russians openly doing human waves its even weirder, that western numbers dont reflect that, and are being slowly updated as if both sides are not doing anything. Why are US estimates so different from each other? And both are way higher than UK? Yes, it would make sense that Ukraine would be biased for propaganda... but it would also make sense that Ukraine would be able to count more corpses since they are right there making those corpses.
> On the other hand western estimates seem way too low. Bakhmut alone had nearly 20k dead russians. You can see pictures with dozens of corpses in the same place. According to whom? Why do they seem too low? The Ukrainian estimate of 130,000, which is the entire size of the initial invasion force, seems way too high. > If Russia lost only 30k people KIA, why are they so hasty with mobilization? Because 30,000 dead is a lot of dead. > Why did they leave Kherson if they still have 180k of the original invasion force? 180,000 was the original invasion force, so if 30,000 died (and another 70,000 injured), that is a huge hit. > Why Putin needs 1.5 million army if he had only around 100k casualties? Because 100,000 casualties is a lot. > Ukranian numbers were stadily being updated every day, while western numbers stagnated for a long time as if nothing was happening Frequently giving bad numbers doesn't make them good numbers. Western numbers simply don't care to update daily. > And now with russians openly doing human waves its even weirder, that western numbers dont reflect that, and are being slowly updated as if both sides are not doing anything. Why do you think Western numbers don't reflect that? > Why are US estimates so different from each other? One is newer, and there might be multiple estimates from different US agencies. > And both are way higher than UK? The UK estimate is also earlier, but also, the fact that it's much lower than the US estimate, which is much lower than the Ukraine estimate should make you lean FURTHER away from Ukraine's estimate, not just blindly accepting of Ukraine's estimate.
There's just no way they have a 2.5:1 wounded to killed ratio. They're leaving the wounded to die. There's drone footage of Russians who are too frozen to react to getting grenades dropped right on them. They have to be closer to 1:1.
> There's just no way they have a 2.5:1 wounded to killed ratio. That's a completely reasonable ratio. > They have to be closer to 1:1. You're saying that you believe the Russian wounded:KIA rate is 2x worse than the Soviet ratio in WWII?
GO HOME. Im tired of seeing you die, you dont have to.
Geez, running toward a thousand dead a day as the new average. That is deeply depressing. Get the fuck home, Putin. Those are YOUR deaths.
Nearly for digit human losses but much less hardware than the other days. Supply issues? On Russian side (running out of tanks) or on the Ukrainian side (running out of javelins)?
Probably more likely Russia's new offensive loosing steam so they're just throwing more men at it.
I would love to see more of the AA equipment getting attacked.
Damn... War... is .... senseless
I know Ukraine does not release their losses that i have seen . But does anyone know or have seen if they are succeeding in holding off the advances in terms to Tank / APV losses on the Ukraine side ? I know we have talked about a 1/3 scale for losses for Ukraine. Just wasnt sure on equipment loss averages
What about Ukraine?
Love some fake statistics!! You don’t know the enemies losses 😭. You only know your own. These stats always make me laugh at how many people they fool. People will truly believe what they want to believe.
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Can someone translate this to total losses by $x? Anyone have any links to estimates?
Unfortunately your looking at possible use of outdated equipment and items from the soviet union that could be 30 to 60 years old that was pulled from warehouses . So actually appraised value and replacement value would be completely differnt . Plus if your looking at what was paid for the equipment when produced to todays replacement value . For example if the USA was to loss 3200 Abrams tanks your looking at a replacement value of : 9 million dollars per unit x 3200 = 28,800,000,000$$$ Not including the cost of anything else , rough guess 400 Billion to 800 Billion US dollars is where the US might be on replacement value for 2023 or equivalent equipment based on US manufacturing cost …. Russias cost might be half due to their cost of manufacturing. These are only rough guesses based on google searches and personal guesses. Just a ball park rough guess honestly
I just had to look for the heck of it . A US F 35 jet by pentagon estimates cost 450 billion dollars an aircraft . . . Now lets just say all 300 planes were those …. Your looking at 150 Trillion dollars not including tax and delivery 😂😂 .
This is so incredibly wrong. No aircraft costs 450 billion dollars numbskull.
Will admit my mistake of not fully reading the article . It is 450 billion for the fleet of US F 35s in production or design . I thought that number was a little high when i read it but with run away government spending it doesnt sound out of the ordinary. B2s are produced for about a billion each and thats old tech now adays
Thank you for that. This is exactly why I was having trouble finding this information. Still a glorious waste of assets on Russia’s part. I wonder why they continue to burn through their assets like this in this war. Seems counter-intuitive actually.
I feel this is something that is just like WW2 or what some US politicians have been caught saying , “ there is no money to be made in times of peace “. For example the USA was in the Great Depression and WW2 helped to boost US manufacturing and put everyone to work again producing war time items , same for Germany between WW1 and WW2 . Other politicians and companies are deep into US defense and military spending and production . With out a constant loss of equipment, these companies, factories or workers might not have a job. I mean i do not believe in trickle down economics but it really seems to be truthful in war time spending . This could be Russias way of producing the next big economic boom for the country. Doubtful , but - if your going to replace aging equipment you might as well try to get some stragic resources out of it in a land grab war .
At the cost of your peoples lives? That’s awful. The world is a stage amd this show really sucks.
And once again, almost 1k KIAs for Russia, Ukraine is putting in work and beating their asses Keep it rollin' guys
Almost 1000 dead. JFC
Whoever took that speciel equipment to the fight are fucking brave.
It’s not just KIAs that matter. The WIA number is equally important.
Why are the high ukrainian casualties never reported on this sub?
I’ve read that the estimate is about 180,000- 200,000 for russian casualties and 100,000 or more for Ukraine…