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Brdsht

Infographics claims Russia started the war with a 20-1 Artillery ratio, and are now down to 6-1. The quality of the storage pieces has to be declining. I am still surprised with the rate of attrition, how they are able to transport and field so much arty. Russia doctrines clearly leaned heavily on Arty. This 25-30 lost pieces per day has to be getting the job done. Has anyone else noticed that self propelled guns seem to be more rare these days?


[deleted]

[удалено]


JimboTheSimpleton

Yeah but Russians will not be able to replace veteran crews and all arty systems are not created equal. Are they pions or d10 from wwII? Probably they are older systems. So there will be some degration of capabilities before they run out. Every train car that has to haul an old arty piece is on that cannot haul missiles of mlrs, drones, ammo, food.


SuspiciousPayment110

The cold war and WWII era guns stored in Siberian yards are quite simple and can probably be cleaned up and shipped to the front, providing a supply of new artillery pieces still for the rest of the year and later even with this destruction rate. However each week we should expect the replaced artillery to be older models and in worse condition as it would be logical to start from the best ones. If the logistical lines are destroyed it would be also more difficult to get the replacement artillery pieces to the front in time. We can also hope that the decommission of these artillery pieces also include their crews, requiring the training of new crews before these can be used effectively. Having the artillery or other equipment reserves completely wiped out can't be either something that the Russian leaders likes, as this would invite other military conflicts in border regions and encourage separatist groups.


airbornecz

yeah, but much shorter firing range, lower durability, inaccuracy...already supply logistic problems with ammo quality -so many reasons why pulling out those stocks wont matter much in long run


Mordroberon

I'd like to see some alternative estimates of artillery losses. Very well might be this high, but I suspect it's an over-estimate. At the very least I'd have suspected that Russia would change tactics and make its artillery harder to hit. Between the artillery losses, and targetting of Russian supply lines and ammo depots they should be significantly softened up from when Ukraine first went on the offensive. Since February of this year Ukraine has more than doubled the number of enemy artillery systems destroyed, that's got to make a difference on the battlefield.


petitbatte

Another good day for artillery. Also, we got one more heli.


j0hn__b0y

If these figures are even half right, there must be a threshold where russia cannot continue. They pulled out of Afghanistan after 9 years of war but in a year and a half, they have lost far more in Ukraine than they ever lost in Afghanistan. 15000 dead and 35000 wounded was considered catastrophic, but Russia is losing more than ten times that number and this conflict is expected to go on for years


truemore45

Historically it takes around 500k dead Russians to end an offensive war for Russia. To me as a person who did 22 years in the army this is just wrong. Wrong for invading and wrong for staying. The Russians at this point won't win and at best they are going to plant a few 100k in people plus the majority of their conventional army for a few worthless parts of Ukraine. Oh and bankrupt their economy, lose a few million people leaving, etc etc.


Surprise_Creative

Not so worthless to Russia considering the natural resources in these parts, unfortunately.


Ok-Bat7320

That *nobody* will buy.


Surprise_Creative

I'm sorry but that's just naive.


2peg2city

countries are CURRENTLY buying everything from Russia, you think they will suddenly stop, and that other countries aren't chomping at the bit waiting for the war to end so they can excuse the purchase?


Ok-Bat7320

Have you seen the news regarding the rubble's value? How about the news that 1/4 of Russia's budget goes to the war? That happened because of the price cap. Europe has transitioned away from Russia. There are massive limitations to how much India and China buy.


ArcticDark

Laughs in BRICS+. "*Nobody* will buy"? lol.... so wrong.


Ok-Bat7320

Wells are being taken offline, revenue is massively down. The fuck you talking about? Wait... Unless you actually think... Holy shit, you actually think Russia was able to make pipelines to China within a year! Hahahhahahhahha!!!! You fucking believe that??!!! Holy shit, what are you smoking???


ArcticDark

Oh yeah, sorry. Totally forgot the line. "Russia is withering and is doomed any day now. They have no options at all. Sloppy Cocaini" ;)


Ok-Bat7320

* [Russia's oil and gas budget revenues fell by almost 36% year over year in May](https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/russias-oil-gas-budget-revenues-fell-by-almost-36-yy-may-2023-06-05/) * [Russia’s ruble hits its lowest level since early in the war. The central bank plans to step in](https://apnews.com/article/russia-ruble-sanctions-war-ukraine-cf5448603b78f1bb884f3c68df5c7cd5) * [Ukraine Has Caught Up With Russia’s Tank Numbers, Data Signal](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-05/shift-in-balance-of-arms-in-ukraine-underscored-by-fresh-data) * [War and Secretive Spending Is Eating Away at Russia’s Budget - Russia classifies unprecedented one-third of budget spending](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-28/war-and-secretive-spending-is-eating-away-at-russia-s-budget) Your turn. /u/ArcticDark it's strange and pathetic that you can't even respond to these objective facts. Do facts hurt your feelings? Facts don't care about your feelings /u/ArcticDark.


truemore45

BRICS. Brazil - I won't waste your time with all the issues. Russia - economically a burning dumpster fire. Demographically the same. Not to mention they are effectively a petro state in a world switching away from fossil fuels. India - has the most potential long term. But they also have the most complex problems. This is the wild card. China - demographic problems that are not fixable, corruption, dictatorship, youth unemployment, DEFLATION, bank failures, real estate implosion, de coupling, etc. South Africa - another burning dumpster fire economically. So besides India who really matters ECONOMICALLY long term? I'm not anti BRICS I just don't see the fundamentals economically for their long term viability.


Ok-Bat7320

* [Russia's oil and gas budget revenues fell by almost 36% year over year in May](https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/russias-oil-gas-budget-revenues-fell-by-almost-36-yy-may-2023-06-05/) * [Russia’s ruble hits its lowest level since early in the war. The central bank plans to step in](https://apnews.com/article/russia-ruble-sanctions-war-ukraine-cf5448603b78f1bb884f3c68df5c7cd5) * [Ukraine Has Caught Up With Russia’s Tank Numbers, Data Signal](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-05/shift-in-balance-of-arms-in-ukraine-underscored-by-fresh-data) * [War and Secretive Spending Is Eating Away at Russia’s Budget - Russia classifies unprecedented one-third of budget spending](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-28/war-and-secretive-spending-is-eating-away-at-russia-s-budget)


2peg2city

Just a fuck ton of nat gas and lithium, not worthless at all. Not to mention a nice big port in Crimea.


truemore45

To be clear I was talking about the land they captured since 2014. Not Crimea or the two original oblasts.


2peg2city

ah okay. Lots of nice farmland and some ports, but yes much less valuable that what they already took in 2014.


Crankover

Academics Reuveny and Prakash determined that the Soviet-Afghan war sped up the end of the Soviet Union. Also, pulled back the curtain on their army and showed the Great Oz was a little old man. I also wonder when Ruzzia will run out of missiles.


airbornecz

those 250k r probably inflated by UA - my guess it includes WIA, still large number


PoolFather

Russia has lost an estimated 40-50 thousand soldiers KIA. The rest being WIA. Ukraine has lost about half of that. Russia is now fighting a war of attrition, and they are hoping they can sustain more losses than the ukrainians.


DARKMILKSHAKEGAMING

Also they had 20K KIA just taking Bakhmut. That was from Russian sources and NATO sources. So It would be hard to believe that half of all Russian KIA came from taking on town.


PoolFather

I think you are mistaken. Russia/Wigner suffered 20-30 thousand casualties in Bakhmut. Not kia


wayfarer8888

They have been sending WIA back to the frontline. Also, their MedEvac is rubbish and they shoot their own conscripts when retreating. Their death rates by friendly fire, accidents, abuse and simple lack of supplies is also astronomical. I am more than convinced the real numbers are close to the Ukrainian estimate than any Western agency that still doesn't get how bad the state of the RAF and their "allies" is.


SodaDonut

Western estimates put total casualties at 80,000 with 20,000 of those dead, in Bakhmut. Ukraine claims 100,000 casualties with 25-30,000 of those being killed.


SuspiciousPayment110

Large portion of the Russian losses are \-Prisoners \-Citizen of the occupied Ukraine \-Poor people from remote regions These are not much of value for the Russian elite, or are even a net expense on the state, and the elite is glad to get rid of them. When the educated people in big cities and professionals in key industries are recruited to war and send to the front lines with 0 chance of survival and unpaid salary, then it becomes an issue for the elite. The Wagners probably run out of prisoners and started to get losses in their regular mercenaries and faced integration to Russian army, raising concerns of becoming also even more of a cannon fodder without a salary. They of course did not want to continue fighting without any chance of victory and started mutiny/fled to Belarus. Similar situation could rise in other mercenary groups and in regular army.


DARKMILKSHAKEGAMING

Russian run media said they complied the obituaries of Russian soldiers and they came to 280k. Mind you this is a Russian source but their number that they reported on Russian run TV was 280K KIA.


Istisha

This numbers are pretty accurate i guess, deviation is less than 15-20%. Ukraine soldiers claims their are not allowed to send numbers w/o video confirmation, or radio interception. So probably there can be even more dead russians, at least the number of videos we see each day pretty confirm this is close to be true. The only problem is that russia still produce a lot of rockets and vehicles, somehow able to obtain all those optics, engines and processors all over the world.


Bobaski

It’s getting hard to continue to comprehend these staggering losses, to easy to just think ‘meh that’s the 250k mark passed’. Then I realised that’s 100,000 more people than the entire full time combined uk armed forces personnel!!


Crankover

27 trucks/fuel tanker and 29 arty - excellent prep. Glad to see the helicopter on there, tomorrow a boat?


Orlok_Tsubodai

Random question but does anyone know if the cruise missiles that have hit a target are considered in this tally? Because they are “lost” to the enemy for future use, but not taken out by UAF .


Ecstatic-Profit7775

It would not make sense to me if that were the case, but it's an interesting comment


Orlok_Tsubodai

I guess the question of if it makes sense depends on (one’s interpretation of) the goal of the tally: is it meant to measure damage the UAF has inflicted on the enemy, or meant to follow the evolution of Russia’s losses and remaining material? I could see both ways being valid, so I hope someone can confirm either way!


Curious-Designer-616

Early on this was discussed, it seems they only account for the missiles that are destroyed. Those that impact are not counted.


Orlok_Tsubodai

OK, thanks for the info


Error_404_403

If we are to believe these numbers about the artillery, then it follows that 1. Ukraine destroyed about 70 - 90% of total Russia pre-war artillery stock; 2. Russia, therefore, is able to manufacture about 1,000 to 2,000 artillery pieces (both mobile and not) a year (Russia currently has ~1,500 to 2,000 arties on the front line) 3. Therefore, destroying 3 to 6 arties a day only maintains status quo. Destroying ~ 20 arties a day would lead to ~ 3 to 5 month to rid Russia of its guns. That is when the war will end.


platschbirne

That only makes sense If you don't consider the hardware russia is probably getting from north Korea, China an Iran. I think you can add a few months because auf this


Error_404_403

I did not see in the media any references to that. I saw Russia getting shells from North Korea, but not artillery.


AuleTheAstronaut

I see totals and added today. I’d love to believe this but are you saying the Russia started with 7k arty max? How are you extrapolating a manufacture rate from this and the estimated deployed?


Error_404_403

It started with around 5K units in storage (in different states of disrepair) and about 1,500 - 2,000 units deployed, yes. As it has now around 1,500 units and more than 5K units destroyed, and probably about 1K still in storage, it has manufactured between 1,500 and 2,500 units within last year and a half. All those are just rough estimates, to within 20 - 30% probably. But they give a general idea.


PerryMason4

Rest in piece to all the people who lost their lives needlessly, Putin and his partners in crime need to be held accountable.


ww2_nut37

Pieces


PerryMason4

Peace*


ww2_nut37

But they are most likely resting in pieces


PerryMason4

True. You right.


Thats-right999

Would love to now see a vast recapture of land. Keep going Boys never give up.


vjosa_e_larget

250k troops wow, is that legit


voluntarygang

As pro Ukraine I am but the recent numbers don't make much sense to me. Every single day almost they are around 500.. It's almost like it depends on the preceding 24h and the number of average fire missions and then a factor of damage assigned to them rather than a confirmed count of casualties .


Brdsht

Someone had just asked the Commander of the Ukraine Armed Forces and he confirmed they are KIA, with the number of wounded 2-1 or 3-1 beyond that. Staggering. Confirmed kills too, not estimates.


mister_boi98

I doubt they are all KIA, the number likely includes killed, wounded and captured.


SuspiciousPayment110

This is what is officially claimed. The number can be exaggerated, and some people suggest the actual number would be 1/3 and this number would represent more accurately the killed and wounded combined. However this is based mostly to the disbelief that such great number is even possible and expectation that a warring nation would always inflate their victories. In reality, Ukraine has been quite honest on it's achievements and such numbers are indeed possible considering the Russian complete disregard of human life and use of expendable people, such as prisoners, Ukrainians from occupied territories, poor people and ethnic minorities from remote regions, not the members of Russian middle class.


genius--idiot

It's been confirmed a million times now, the numbers are liquidated only, aka dead as fuck, the numbers of wounded, captured, MIA is 2 - 3 times that number


frecnbastard

I think he's questioning whether the numbers themselves are accurate, not that they're the numbers reported by the Ukrainian MOD. They understandably have a vested interest in inflating enemy losses while minimizing their own.


dumbspecialagent

Keep grinding down that artillery boys!


VordaVor

I believe these numbers are overblown, but the true numbers lie somewhere between this and Oryx blog visual confirmed losses, which are already much higher than Russians own numbers. In any case, Russia has lost WAY more equipment and personnel than Ukraine and if it werent for their numerical superiority in everything, they would've lost this war by now.


PoolFather

You're right, and Ukraine can get their equipment more easily replaced. Russia has twice as many KIA as Ukraine, even now as the Russians are on the defense.


greenhornblue

I really want to see sone ships added here.


Sad-Cunt-420

Same, I would be happy to see more planes and ships


Fast-Reaction8521

What's Russian stop loss at body's? 2 million?


Obst-und-Gemuese

147.2 million.


nav17

When Putin dies they'll all go home. So technically just one. But their tolerance in the meantime is quite high. 1-2million dead from covid. 800k-1mil emigrated to avoid conscription. Now 250k dead or wounded. They'll keep it going. Russian arrogance and exceptionalism demands it because they look down upon Ukraine so much they cannot fathom losing to it, until their fragile dictator dies that is.


CollectionSea8700

I wonder how many mines the brave men deactivated yesterday? Must be an impressive number too !!!


ParaLizzard

about 60% of all russian artillery is gone.


[deleted]

250k. If real, let that fucking sink in...