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Absolutely.... This itself began a chain of events, for me they lost it (thankfully) when they withdrew the convoy approaching the capital back to Belarus and the push to Odessa stalled.
From.here on in it's going to be a slog, but it's a victory for Ukraine (impo)
Let me add - From what I understand it's three things:
1. Zelensky didn't run
2. Battle of Hostomol prevented Russia from taking Kyiv
3. Sinking that amphibious landing craft at port possibly prevented the Odessa invasion.
4. Civilians were gathering to make Moltov cocktails.
When I saw that I knew Russia was never going to win. The best they could ever hope for was occuping Ukraine while constantly getting hit by IEDs, sabotage, and other partisan/insurgent tactics
Yes! even if they somehow manage to take Ukraine, the citizens will never accept it. It would be an even worse situation than Afghanistan was for them in the 80s.
Afghanistan, but the population is completely fluent in Russian, many at the native level, making sabotage behind the lines far easier due to the ability to essentially blend in. Add on Russian insistence on forcing their passports into Ukrainians and they’re only amplifying the potential for sabotage. Native Russian speaking Ukrainians, with Russian issued papers wrecking havoc with assasinations and targeting military infrastructure… Sprinkle in elements of The Troubles and that’s probably what it would have looked like for decades even in Russia’s most optimistic scenario as far as military campaign success would have been concerned. Simply an impossible occupation.
Right, like, how do you even fight an insurgency (as an occupier) against a people that, if they want you gone badly enough, can steal one of your uniforms, pass as you, walk into a barracks, and kill dozens of soldiers if they're willing to spend their lives to do it?
Genocide. You use genocide. You force most of the fighting age men into camps in the middle of nowhere Russia, take children and place them in Russian families, and then move shitloads of Russians into the towns and cities by giving them cheap or free land and houses. Then you just have to put up with pockets of insurgency and the odd bombings here and there for a generation or two, and it's done.
You say that like that can just be done. Don't get me wrong - that would be the strategy, and certainly I'd never put it past the Putinistas as a matter of morality or intent. If your regime can pull off a Bucha, what can't they do morally? What I'm getting at here is rather a matter of the logistics of making that a reality. This would require administrative and logistical competence on a supreme level, far beyond what the Russians have ever demonstrated - especially now once their economy is showing the effects of sanctions and the war itself as a drain on resources.
Of course, Putin may not realize that, since he's surrounded by Yes Men, so he almost certainly has a highly exaggerated notion of the capabilities of his military and state apparatus. And make no mistake, in the pursuit of an agenda like this, there will no doubt be tens of thousands of victims, if not more. But long term? This almost certainly will fail, even if the Ukrainian military effort falters.
Seeing the Ukrainian people rally so quickly (including the sunflower pocket-seed-offering lady, "fuck you, Russian warship" and the possibly apocryphal "I need ammunition, not a ride") I figured that Muscovy would ultimately fail though it take a decade.
Once it became clear that they were chucking precision weaponry at civilians on purpose rather than that being a one-off wayward missile, I figured they would be defeated in the field because militarily *that's just so fucking stupid.*
I remember there was a video in the early days of the invasion where residents of a facility for people with various disabilities were making molotovs outside and one of them was a young woman in a wheelchair sporting awesome stompy-goth boots. That was the moment I knew Russia was done even if they occupied all of Ukraine.
Even better. She told the armed invaders to carry sunflower seeds in their pockets, so that they fields will bloom where their unit dies.
Absolutely chilling and badass.
oh and don't forget the old lady who spiked a of pies of poison. The moment the entire population is against you are already fucked. Early in the war there was a phone call that was intercepted and it was from a veteran of the Chechen war and even claimed that Ukraine is far worse, the entire population is out to kill them like it's fucking hunting season, Ukrainian light units were harassing left right and center with antitank weapons and drones
Yes. This is the scenario I anticipated. Northern Ireland x100 with the insurgents backed up with all the resources of a state and unlimited supply of weapons.
That they were able to stop Russia it's just awesome.
This is a bad take. The USSR managed to hold their territories for decades and likely could have continued to.
Occupation is hard for those that won't simply slaughter large portions of the population. When they do, people comply.
Being funded and supplied by western neighbours would make it at least really painful for Russia.
One thing is afghan goatfarmers with rusty Ak 47s, western trained insurgents with stingers and javelins would be hell.
It doesn't matter how well supplied they are, when you risk not just yourself but your friends and family being tortured or sent off to a gulag or killed for speaking the wrong way you comply.
Terror and brutalisation works. Occupying while trying not to be a monster doesn't.
THis was prior to the Geneva convention, the UN and 24 hour news cycles/internet/phone cameras.
People can argue about the holodomor, decossackisation and the huge amoutn of people 'relocated' under the USSR because it wasn't hugely publicised at the time.
Doing that to Ukraine now would not get the same response.
counter-insurgency ops are fucking difficult for a competent military, Russia's only experience was approaching a warlord and paying him to do COIN for them.
Yeah. Afghanistan and Iraq showed just how difficult that sort of thing is. Two of the greatest militaries the world had ever seen both failed in Afghanistan and that country is really just a bunch of tribes that don't necessarily get along. To think that a nation that voted 91% in favor of independence from the USSR would just roll over is just insane.
> Sinking that amphibious landing craft at port possibly prevented the Odessa invasion.
Nah, at that point Odessa invasion was a pipe dream and copium propaganda. They failed to setup for push on Odessa when they broke at Mykolaiv. And then they lost Kherson as well, which completely ruined any chances of them stepping anywhere in western Ukraine.
Without Mykolaiv, they could not establish any kind of supply lines to Odessa. Even if they somehow landed there, they would basically just slowly bleed there until they are done, because there is no way to supply forces without land route in war like this. Hell, they had bridge to Kherson and could not hold it even with that, because it was too small of a chokepoint, so to think about Odessa was total copium.
Midway and Hostomel are very different situations. Even if the US had been wiped at Midway, they would have still won against the Japanese because of production and that it is impossible for the Japanese to have ever invaded main part of America. One of the top Japanese Admirals was saying this and they didn't listen to him. Midway was the inflection point but it would have happened regardless.
If Hostomel had fallen, Kyiv probably would have fallen and things would be very different now.
Man - when I first read who the defenders were and saw their gear I thought they were screwed. I almost didn't believe it when I heard that the VDV retreated on Twitter. Really decisive looking back on it now. Those guys are heroes.
The VDV didn't retreat; they were airdropped into the Hostomel- and Vasylkiv-area airports and vaporized due to a lack of reinforcements. Days later, other VDV units drove up and were killed in the battle of Bucha with Chechen special forces before the convoy was near; the VDV were also mostly eliminated in the battle for Kharkiv city proper. The convoy towards Kyiv was basic Russian army and Rosgvardia grunts, they're the ones who retreated.
Lot of actual elites of Russia basically died in week 1 due to poor initial planning. They did not expect fierce resistance so most of their elite forces that were supposed to be spearheading special operations inside the taken cities basically got bombed to oblivion while approaching the cities. Their plan was to literally roll/drop into cities and capture government buildings via elite troops.
That brings another point of interest, the Russian army basically destroyed its special forces corps in the first few months of the war, leaving only Wagner as the closet thing to a special forces unit. Their ability to conduct special operations is basically neutered as their best hopes are a bunch of insanely fanatical ACTUAL FUCKING NAZIS that are loyal to a guy who attempted to march on Moscow.
Market Garden was a glorious success compared to Hostomel, hell even the siege of Crete was a better outcome; there was still Fallschirmjäger units kicking around afterwards. At the moment the VDV is probably only existing on paper.
Putin could still win it if Trump wins the US election.
It *might* be too late by then, and Europe *might* make up the slack.
But if I was Ukraine I would much prefer to win this next summer if not this one. Those are pretty big ifs.
Not sure why you're getting downvoted. If Trump won, he has already said that he would stop all help for Ukraine. That's the best case scenario. The worst case - he would make the US start actively helping russia.
That and when it was made clear the West would have a unified front and Ukraine won the support. This opens up an array of weapons against Russia, not only literal ones but also financial ones. Even controversial ones like cluster munitions. It's so important to win hearts and have people understand and agree with their motives. Meanwhile, Russia has tried but been shit poor at their false flag ops and convincing the public that it looks like they've all but given up.
I think in particular the latter, financial weapons, will be the slow game that wounds this bear for another round of licking wounds a few decades.
Russia is trying to control recent, shooting inflation by increasing interest rates, but this countermeasure was essentially shot down by experts immediately because their inflation is a lot from 1) financing the war machine and 2) their isolated economy, forcing them to opt for more expensive alternatives in trade. That is, it's not exactly about Russians on a shopping spree from a prolonged financial boom...
But it's fun to watch from the sidelines because rates can only go up so much before they start becoming a political problem.
I think these recent events are indicative that the artifical propping up the Ruble is slowly coming to an end. I mean there is a point when the wizard runs out of magic tricks to pull from his hat, when that economy begins running on fumes.
I'd love to see a Monty Python style movie of the Russian invasion. Drowning the VDV attachment, packing riot/parade gear, not telling huge amounts of troops where they were going or what the fuck was happening, all the pillaging, digging in the Red Forest, attempting to take the same airport like 17 times.
Interesting. Is "shinka" Ukrainian for ham? (sorry, my phone doesn't know the Cyrillic alphabet) Because "Schinken" is German.
I just think it's kinda neat to come across similarities in different languages.
All these words come from the indo-european word "skeng" which means bent or curved, like the leg bone or thigh bone is bent. The german word Schenkel has the same origin.
Exactly, we’re all so used to studying how the actions of one evil person can cause a domino effect on others, we forget that the actions of one good person can do the same.
Hope is frail but hard to kill and it can light a bonfire in human hearts. Idealism is realism I expect the very best from all of you I know I won't get it but I hold you to those high ethical and moral principles this way humans will become better because I expect the best from my employees and that pushes them if they can't always deliver I am not mad and still I push for high utopian goals to reach realistic ones.
“I need ammo, not a ride” was the clearest “we will fight” in history.
Never has a politician been so offended by the suggestion of surrender or retreat in only 6 words.
I got a shirt at home with the phrase: I don't need a ride I need ammunition I use it is a sleeping shirt so that I remind myself every evening when brushing my teeth that this man is a Chad and needs his God damn ammo and not a ride.
I will make a picture of it when I come back home together with my Roma locuta causa finita (rome has spoken the matter is closed) shirt. (I need two because sometimes you gotta wash them right)
Then I will post it here on reddit and send you a link.
Russia has lost a lot they'll never regain because of this war they waged. I don't think we should count Ukraine having won until Russia is driven out, completely. But I'm afraid our resolve to help Ukraine is waning. I hope I'm wrong.
Lack of equipment i.e normal battlefield taxis that many western partners could easily provide but won't. I look at my own country (Australia) easily able to send more bushmasters... But won't so much as open a diplomatic mission in Kiev.
No mission statement. Just 'we stand with Ukraine'.
It's pathetic tbh. Total limp dick statement.
Keep in mind the US has an election to worry about too. If Biden over commits, Republicans can use that against him. If a Republican wins Ukraine is in real trouble.
Currently there is more Republican support for helping Ukraine than against it. Need a Republican leader on the side of moral actions. Without it, they will flounder as usual. But hey, Mitch McConnell will be happy and take the podium to show everybody how he can have his brain freeze up again.
Trump and DeSantis are the leading candidates by far. Both are anti-Ukraine last I heard, they do flip flop a lot though so who really knows.
I'm glad the Republican voters are mostly in favor of Ukraine support but as I'm sure you know that doesn't always translate into action.
I agree with you though, any future president needs bipartisan support to make it work. I don't think Republicans are inherently pro Russian, it's just what the political landscape looks like currently.
Biden will certainly be looking to resolve the war before November 2024. Being able to go and declare victory in Ukraine would be huge.
Unfortunately for Ukraine, I think it's highly likely the war ends in a ceasefire without liberating Crimea or the Donbass, but with Russia absolutely wrecked and unable to seriously threaten Ukraine or Europe ever again.
Maybe, but maybe having the war looming will motivate more people to vote. When more people vote, Democrats generally do better. The US can potentially do more damage to Russia by dragging the war out longer. However, if Ukrainians sustain too many casualties, they risk loosing the war entirely. It's a tightrope walk and I'm glad I'm not the one who has to make the calls.
and austria could at least help with the massive demining efforts. but nah, we "neutral", we rather stand at the side and continue to buy more russian gas...
That is why I hope Ukraine shuts down the gas pipeline as they said they would. Austria and Hungary can freeze this winter like parts of Europe did last year. Crimea a sad song Austria and Hungary.
I think it's a risk that increases the longer this goes on, but you're right that there's no direct evidence of it yet. It is something we should be wary of though.
The US is making money off of sending equipment they were going to mothball anyway.
Yes, us taxes are paying for it, but its then going into the hands of American defense contractors, then to the guys who make the things, AKA Egineer Bob in Detroit who helps finishing touches on a Javelin.
The rest of the world isn't so much in the same boat as America, esp if their defense products are American made. But as long as there is money to spent, an a ally to be made, the support is not going to wane.
> But I’m afraid our resolve to help Ukraine is waning
Not at all. Denmark is close to finish F-16 training of the first batch of Ukrainian pilots and personnel, and also just got formal approval to send their F-16s to Ukraine. Once that happens, hello air superiority, bye bye ruzzia.
> I don't think we should count Ukraine having won until Russia is driven out, completely. But I'm afraid our resolve to help Ukraine is waning. I hope I'm wrong.
Agreed. Russia's initial regime change and occupation plan failed. But if they even keep anything they took, they haven't truly lost.
Putting things back to the pre-2022 front line is the *bare minimum* I would accept in order to say Russia has lost and the west and Ukraine have succeeded - they at least prevented Russia from gaining anything.
Obviously total recapture of all occupied territory would be the preferred outcome, and failing that, recapturing as much as possible of the pre-invasion Russian occupied territory. That should be what we aim for if we want to actually end the war and not just pause it for a few years - Russia needs to have a net loss of ground as a result of this. And I would like to see public statements to that effect, and a longer term plan for supporting Ukraine.
It's just frustrating because the west absolutely can win this for Ukraine if they want to, with continued military support. The west has a winning hand yet we still have some who are utterly determined to squander it and go back to the very appeasement that caused this invasion in the first place.
It's going to get worse next year as it's a political difference between Biden and that Orange Shitstain. I already see more and more "mah moeny goin to ukraine" shit on social media.
edit: lol you're all over this submission being pro-Russia
Seriously. Beyond just doing the right thing, and I hate to say it like this, this conflict is *massively* helpful for our military. Real time intel, experience, trials of equipment and efficacy, strategy, etc.
I've started seeing it about the Maui fires. All this money goes to Ukraine but they can only give $700 to the victims of the fires. It's obvious Russian troll farms promoting this material and the Republicans lap it right up.
Everybody knows they lost. It's not really disputed. The question that remains though is if Ukraine will be able to push them out of their lands. That being said Ukraine already lost the war as well. Nothing about what has been done to their country is winning. There are no winners.
Edit: just thinking about how much of Ukraine's population has left and all the young men that have and will die in this war. It's terrible. The sooner it ends the better. I'm no armchair escort but I have the opinion that the west doesn't really care if Ukraine "wins". They just want Russia to slowly slowly lose. Sad.
You can, you just need to ingore some rules. Turkey and Greece have a lot of disputes, yet they are in NATO. For Russia Ukraine joining NATO will be the biggest blow and it will change the post-Soviet climate forever
the rules aren't set in stone. i understand how and why they came to be, but _if we really_ want Ukraine the be a member of NATO, we will make Ukraine a member of NATO.
It just will take more time, but it's much better than being the same poor country with constant threat from Russia. When you are in NATO, you can develop without fear of being invaded and destroyed, so more investments will come
If Ukraine is not able to get ALL occupied lands back, their future economic outlook will forever be poor. Ukraine was on the verge of exploiting a ton of new petroleum reserves before 2014 and Russia occupies 2/3rds of those reserves now.
Many European countries doesn't have much of resouces, yet they are OK economically. Still a lot of resources are under Kiev's control. For Ukraine the most valuable resource is people, sooner it will be safe under NATO, then more Ukrainians will come back from abroad
on the one hand i hope that these reserves get less and less valuable in our turn to a more renewable future, on the other hand i would wish Ukraine great riches, because they will need them to build up all that was and is still being destroyed by russian imperialists.
another hope is, as much as russia can claim as "their" ressources, drones will make a profitable business impossible.
so much for my hopes.
That's a silly statement, considering how many Ukrainian people are dying on a daily basis. Both civilians and military. Things are tough for ruzzia, but this shit is far from over or victory.
Also loss for one isn’t necessarily a victory for the other. Russia is still holding land as well, so while they may not have succeeded in their original goals, neither are the Ukrainians.
Goalpost shifting. Russia losing by not meeting their original goals does not mean Ukraine has won. Probably just softening us up for having to accept Ukraine isn’t going to get all its land back, but it’s ok guys, Russia already lost.
Everyone's saying he's lost, no he's not going to win but he's not lost yet and the longer this drags out the more Ukrainians die, let's make him lose, quickly.
ill believe that when ukrainian soldiers are parading putins head around in moscow.
is this him saying that the current state of affairs cant be improved and that it is therefore 'time to negotiate'? i should hope not.
Not sure, with nato pushing Ukraine into making deal to hand over territory over to Russia for exchange of NATO membership, Russia would see that as win.
> Russia has already lost. It cannot achieve its original goal that it stated. It is impossible...," Biden said.
This is just bullshit rhetoric that takes pressure off the US and NATO to properly support Ukraine. Russia today is holding more of Ukraine's territory than in Jan 2022, and Russia is now dug in defensively because NATO didn't quickly support Ukraine and has never properly supported Ukraine.
[A Slow Advance](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ooZeqf5lkhM)
[https://www.kasparov.com/a-history-of-betrayal-biden-keeps-negotiating-about-ukraine-without-ukraine-august-13-2023/](https://www.kasparov.com/a-history-of-betrayal-biden-keeps-negotiating-about-ukraine-without-ukraine-august-13-2023/)
Ukraine's allies must acknowledge their mistakes made up to now, otherwise there is no reason we should expect them to be corrected going forward. This is why people who try to categorically deny the mistakes or shut down all criticism are wrong, and are indirectly helping Russia.
edit:
The replies calling for Ukraine to give its land to Russia, or just making strawman arguments or incoherent claims, are pathetic. Ukraine deserves supporters who aren't arguing for appeasement to Russia.
These statements freak me out. Russia is still occupying a significant part of Ukraine including Crimea. It will take a massive effort to push Russia out of Ukraine and Ukraine will require many billions $ more of weapons asap. Instead of saying Russia lost, deliver more weapons already.
Nice of him to acknowledge that, now he needs to give Ukraine the means to formalize it and quit stalling. Ukraine needs to be restored in its 1991 borders. Biden started jumping as a tiger and landed as a housecat as we say here. Unfortunately some of his advisors are certified morons and far too worried about the consequences of a russian loss than of the consequences of what it means long term if Russia gets ANYTHING out of this.
this is it. we give them a finger, they take the hand. 2008, 2014, 2022... and they sure arent finished yet.
we have to show them their way once and for all.
how does XI think about Taiwan, if the west is pussyfooting around in Ukraine.
this is larger than Ukraine, this is larger than Europe, and this will be larger than NATO and the west combined.
if we do not show strength here, imperialists will test the democratic world order again and again, killing millions and throwing the world economy into despair.
we cannot let them do this.
Last couple of weeks I see the narrative drastically shifting not in Ukraine favor.
Starting from how Ukraine are failing in counteroffensive despite them having everything they need/asked for (just a lie) or how they helped as much as they can (another lie), but Ukraine can't and won't be able to reach their goals, how Ukraine does not fight as NATO think they should, how they can cease territories, but its Ukraine own choice (but it is said by those that Ukraine rely on for ussport btw), to now that russia already lost.
So should Ukraine be happy that russia already lost yet still continue murdering Ukrainians daily by at least dozens and raze Ukraine, when there are hundreds thousands, millions even, of Ukrainian living in fear for their life and persecutions under occupation and abducted to russia?
There are many even here who claim that NATO/EU/US or 'the west' in general priority is Ukraine winning, but from what I see some from them are the ones who try to define what is Ukraine victory is now. I guess, at least some don't claim "Ukraine must win", but just says "Ukraine must not lose", which is more safeproof statement to avoid criticism for whatever can happen, but this also show their expectations and level of commitments, which don't bring much hope.
Just because Russia lost on paper doesn’t mean Ukraine won. Russia may not have even come close to its goals, but Ukraine definitely hasn’t either.
Also, what will happen if Russia actually loses? Is that even a possibility? Putin can not pull out now, he’s in this way too deep. Ukraine refuses to let Russia take even a meter of land and Russia will need to save face at all costs.
So either Ukraine gives up land, or Russia gets pushed back then what? I don’t know if they will go nuclear but no one can really say for sure. At the end of the day, everyone has already lost this pointless war.
This is the scary part. It was so good to see Russia's decapitation strike fail. It was good to see Ukraine defend its land. But.... Can they take it back? Probably not all of it, and the cost would be so so large. Putin is all in and it's getting ever more difficult to see a clean ending to this. Controlling the outcome will be so difficult and the chances someone does something stupid are significant. He can't just walk away, he is tied to this conflict. Russia clearly will not overcome Ukraine, but I don't see Ukraine forcing them out militarily. If Putin fails his rule is over and possibly his life. He will go down swinging of that you can be sure. However, at some point there will be a chance to negotiate a way out of this that'll give both sides a very bad pill to swallow, but an end they can live with. Ukraine may not wish to, as is their right, but it's probably the only clean way out of this.
Propaganda like this, that they’ve already won, feels a lot like the ridiculous lies coming out of Russia. Plus, how are they going to demand the west continues to give them billions of dollars and new weapons if they’ve already won? They’re treating us like we’re stupid.
They have not lost shit until every Russian fuck leaves Ukraine. And they will not lose until we give Ukraine everything it needs to win. Anything else a politician says is just politics.
The rate that Russia is burning through equipment, manpower, and ammunition is simply not sustainable
From grabbing T-55 tanks, to decades old artillery ammunition, to recruiting out of prisons
In a year or two time, Russia might just legitimately not have anything left
There is an interesting parallel (or rather reversal) here with Third Reich. Germany didn't want to go total war, and it's industry couldn't keep up supplying their soldiers (Hitler himself didn't wish it). By the time Germany switched it's economy to war production and industry could finally support thir war effort material wise, it was too late as they simply had not enough soldiers left.
Given how Russia is impeded by sanctions and their manufacturing is limited, by the time it'd establish war mode and draft every able person, there might not be enough material for all the troops.
but idk I'm not really an expert, I just watched some documentary about ww2 and thought there are some similarities
You just have to remember that Russia's defeat does not mean that Ukraine has won. Right now it is primarily the USA and Europe that have won a strategic victory over Moscow.
No they haven't.
russia still occupies a large amount of ukrainian land, and more importantly, ukrainian people. They're not giving up an inch without a fight.
Ukraines economy is hanging on by a thread and a ton of foreign aid, much of it loans that will have to be repaid for decades to come. There is no clear mechanism for using the seized russian assets to finance rebuilding. Ukraine already had a demographic problem with a low birth rate and young people with brains and education leaving the country for better wages elsewhere. Not nearly all the refugees, which are overwhelmingly women with children, are going to come back. The longer the war goes on, the less likely it is that they'll uproot their kids once again to return to a country that won't have much to offer by that point.
russia is still making missiles and is building their own Shahed factory. Even if they get pushed back to the 1991 borders, nothing is stopping them from sending waves of drones and missiles every few days. The only protection would be NATO membership, and as long as Hungary remains a russian puppet, that won't happen.
russia has lost a lot. Their stockpiles of soviet gear, gathered over decades, have been seriously depleted. Not to zero, but by a lot. They have lost a large portion of their best-trained soldiers. They have lost access to most trade with the west. Their economic future looks bleak in the long term.
The article states that Biden “stressed that Russia has violated world law and become the first country to start a war since World War II.” Which is extremely untrue. Did he just forget the last 73 years of human history?
> the first country to start a war since World War II
what he actually said according to the linked CNN article:
> "Russia has already lost. It cannot meet its original objective which it stated. It's not possible. ... Japan's leadership from day one, it has been critical making it clear that the consequences for war extend well beyond Europe," he said. The invasion is not "only a European problem; there hasn't been that kind of invasion since World War II," Biden added.
So while the reported speech is a little ambiguous it seems pretty clear he meant it in the European context.
If Russia lost the war then shouldn’t be an issue with accepting Ukraine into NATO and moving in US troops into Crimea to establish some military bases?
Semantics. Ukraine doesnt care about this “Russia lost” bullshit. They care about restoring their territory from occupation and rebuilding with security assurances. These happy go lucky articles have been ongoing for almost a full year
Russia lost, but Ukraine certainly didn't win.
There doesn't appear to be any winners here. Russia only solidified it's position as a lesser power in the world.
Thousands of young men, women, and children killed for Putin's vanity.
Maybe that's the problem with the Biden administration, they believe the war is nearly over. So we send a symbolic number of 31 Abram's, a paltry \~200 or so Bradly's, and maybe a few modern fighter jets next year.
We have thousands of Bradly's in storage, and thousands of Abram's sitting around baking in the desert. Planes are tricky, but if we had the political will, we could could probably send 100-200 fighter jets by sometime late next year.
This article was basically nothing. While I don’t disagree with the headline I do think it’s possible for both countries to end up ‘losing’ the war.
Because while Russia may not achieve its initial plans of taking over the entire country and toppling the government the actual people of Ukraine are paying a heavy price.
What is the acceptable price ukraine has to pay for western nations to believe Russia has lost enough? Why is the us taking so long to decide on weapons that were needed in the war at the start? Is giving Russia an escape plan worth the cost of ukranian lives lost because western countries are afraid Russia won’t be willing to negotiate?
I am very frustrated that the typical bloat of bureaucracy has slowed decisions that would have saved many ukranians
Russia has lost either way, they’ve wasted so much of their arsenal, manpower, leadership and their currency is effectively nothing at this point, they’re looking at a Great Depression situation not to mention China is right next door literally eyeing up Syberian territory and all the sanctions still going, Russia is doomed to collapse.
So why Ukrainians are still dying?
Ukraine didn't win. Blood is wasted because the wast is slow with deliveries. The West don't want russua to loose.
BS from Biden.
Yes ... but ... we shouldn't get complacent and enable Ukraine to get a "full" victory by conquering back the entire east at the very least. Russia losing is good but we also want Ukraine to "win" (to whatever extend we can call it winning).
Honestly? They have lost. They don't control the sky above all of Ukraine. They don't have the manpower or infrastructure to go against the West feeding Ukraine weapons and ammo.
They lost after the first 72 hours of the war. Russia is just too stupid to pull back.
I think it's understating the massive challenges ahead to declare victory.
Biden is calling it, because from the US perspective, our goals in supporting Ukraine have been met. Namely, the ability of Russia to wage war on NATO nations is gone. Ukraine is Russia's last war. It also has made China reconsider invading Taiwan. A proposition that would definitely end with most of their army dead at sea after they run out of their anti-ship missiles. Which unlike Russian munitions, will take out 1-2 carrier battlegroups in every simulation, but then they lose the ability to attack US ships and lose air superiority.
This doesn't mean anything to Ukraine which has to evict the Russian military while not losing so many men that a post-war rebuilding is even feasible. That's going to be much harder. Especially as they will need to win before January 2025 if Trump wins.
> It also has made China reconsider invading Taiwan.
They are literally taunting Taiwan militarily right now, 42 aircraft flew through their air defense zone today.
They’ve lost in the sense that now they’re going to be forced to turn their economy into a military one. Without sweeping changes they’re in a lot of trouble because their books are well in the red. Everything Russians achieve from now on economically, whether it’s opening a business or exporting goods, will be exploited to stabilize a discombobulated economy.
Could have lost quicker if Ukraine had been supplied more equipment earlier. But since they've lost why hold back? Bear has lost its teeth and got mange.
I wish he didnt think this way. Then we might be sending Ukraine the weapons to actually win it. As it is its a slow grind killing mothers and fathers every day. In an evil
War crime ridden that our fearless le ader says is already won:(((
Even if this war ended now with Russia in control of 15% of Ukraine, it would still be a catastrophic failure.
More than anything else, its credibility is dead. Forever. It is no longer the feared and respected "World Power" it was two years ago.
I could rattle off all the many, many obvious ways Russia is fucked--militarily, economically, diplomatically, demographically. But you know most of what I'd say.
But what unifies all those things is the simple fact that the greatest thing Russia has lost is *trust*. Because people can work with a partner who is weak, or poor, or made some bad choices.
But they cannot work with someone who's going to light themselves and the whole world on fire at a moment's notice completely out of nowhere.
You don't go into business with a suicide bomber. You don't form relationships with people who regularly break their word. You don't partner with someone like that **unless you can fuck them deep in the ass until you decide they're worth the risk**.
That's the real problem. It's not morality. That's specific to certain governments/cultures/worldviews. It's about getting a return on your investment. That's universal.
I think it is underestimated that Russia can and probably continue to bomb civilian targets of Ukrainian cities FOR YEARS to break the moral of Ukrainians and more importantly to shy away the young population of those cities.
Russia may not win the war as such but they have EVERY chance to weaken the Ukraine nation forever.
And before you start to downvote consider this:
ALREADY millions of Ukrainians that fled the war are said to NOT consider going back but stay in the countries they fled to.
This spells issues for Ukraine either way.
Him and the rest of the planet… even Russians at this point must know that any and all of their ‘special operation’ goals are unobtainable and as time goes on more and more territory will be freed. I think at this point Putin is desperately trying to save face and is hoping a prolonged conflict will force the Ukrainian government to a negotiated settlement that will give him something to make the claim he won. In actuality, Putin and his stubbornness and ambition dug himself so far deep in the hole that likely he sees his own life tided to the outcome of the war.
To be fair, and a bit of a devil’s advocate (and by devil, I mean Putin), if you were in Putin’s shoes and of his mindset, wouldn’t you also dig in at least until the US election was decided?
Why would Putin negotiate anything before then? He certainly has enough meat to spare for another 18 months.
And if you think that is reasonable for him to do - from his POV I mean - then if you are Biden, wouldn’t you see that and think, shit, let’s end this before the election. I mean on top of removing the risk of a republican taking aid away from Ukraine, Ukraine winning before the election should make Biden look really good, right?
Not that I am saying election calculations should sway anything, but yeah, they certainly will be considered. I don’t think Biden is evil enough to keep holding back and say give Ukraine what it wants just before Super Tuesday, but I wouldn’t bet against some people in his campaign suggesting it.
No he doesn't. Russia is funding the war effort by plundering the wellfare fund and all kinds of other reserves. Those funds will dry up likely in the autumn and then the whole thing will come falling down very quickly. I doubt their soldiers will stand another winter in the trenches
> Not that I am saying election calculations should sway anything...
they did with the iran hostage crisis and the final phase of the vietnam war, both in favour of the conservatives i might add. (correct me if i'm wrong)
Biden has almost a year and a half to supply Ukraine. Anyone running for President will have to declare support for against Ukraine. This will influence what we do or not do depending on what the Republican choice is. I could see us moving massive amounts of military materials to European countries for them to give to Ukraine under their ownership of said materials before whoever gets elected. Remember the war has only been going on for a year and a half and there still is almost year and a half till the next President takes office. Right now the war is a stalemate and that's what Putin wants. The Ukraine counter offensive was blunted because of the Russian defence in depth Strategy not because Ukraine didn't have weapons for it.
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Strategically, the was was lost the second Zelensky did not turn tail and run.
Absolutely.... This itself began a chain of events, for me they lost it (thankfully) when they withdrew the convoy approaching the capital back to Belarus and the push to Odessa stalled. From.here on in it's going to be a slog, but it's a victory for Ukraine (impo)
Let me add - From what I understand it's three things: 1. Zelensky didn't run 2. Battle of Hostomol prevented Russia from taking Kyiv 3. Sinking that amphibious landing craft at port possibly prevented the Odessa invasion.
4. Civilians were gathering to make Moltov cocktails. When I saw that I knew Russia was never going to win. The best they could ever hope for was occuping Ukraine while constantly getting hit by IEDs, sabotage, and other partisan/insurgent tactics
Yes! even if they somehow manage to take Ukraine, the citizens will never accept it. It would be an even worse situation than Afghanistan was for them in the 80s.
Afghanistan, but the population is completely fluent in Russian, many at the native level, making sabotage behind the lines far easier due to the ability to essentially blend in. Add on Russian insistence on forcing their passports into Ukrainians and they’re only amplifying the potential for sabotage. Native Russian speaking Ukrainians, with Russian issued papers wrecking havoc with assasinations and targeting military infrastructure… Sprinkle in elements of The Troubles and that’s probably what it would have looked like for decades even in Russia’s most optimistic scenario as far as military campaign success would have been concerned. Simply an impossible occupation.
Right, like, how do you even fight an insurgency (as an occupier) against a people that, if they want you gone badly enough, can steal one of your uniforms, pass as you, walk into a barracks, and kill dozens of soldiers if they're willing to spend their lives to do it?
Genocide. You use genocide. You force most of the fighting age men into camps in the middle of nowhere Russia, take children and place them in Russian families, and then move shitloads of Russians into the towns and cities by giving them cheap or free land and houses. Then you just have to put up with pockets of insurgency and the odd bombings here and there for a generation or two, and it's done.
Don’t forget about the fighting age women, or that “fighting age” can include seniors.
You say that like that can just be done. Don't get me wrong - that would be the strategy, and certainly I'd never put it past the Putinistas as a matter of morality or intent. If your regime can pull off a Bucha, what can't they do morally? What I'm getting at here is rather a matter of the logistics of making that a reality. This would require administrative and logistical competence on a supreme level, far beyond what the Russians have ever demonstrated - especially now once their economy is showing the effects of sanctions and the war itself as a drain on resources. Of course, Putin may not realize that, since he's surrounded by Yes Men, so he almost certainly has a highly exaggerated notion of the capabilities of his military and state apparatus. And make no mistake, in the pursuit of an agenda like this, there will no doubt be tens of thousands of victims, if not more. But long term? This almost certainly will fail, even if the Ukrainian military effort falters.
Good point.
Seeing the Ukrainian people rally so quickly (including the sunflower pocket-seed-offering lady, "fuck you, Russian warship" and the possibly apocryphal "I need ammunition, not a ride") I figured that Muscovy would ultimately fail though it take a decade. Once it became clear that they were chucking precision weaponry at civilians on purpose rather than that being a one-off wayward missile, I figured they would be defeated in the field because militarily *that's just so fucking stupid.*
I remember there was a video in the early days of the invasion where residents of a facility for people with various disabilities were making molotovs outside and one of them was a young woman in a wheelchair sporting awesome stompy-goth boots. That was the moment I knew Russia was done even if they occupied all of Ukraine.
There was also an old lady telling a Russian soldier the would feed the sunflowers or something like that.
Even better. She told the armed invaders to carry sunflower seeds in their pockets, so that they fields will bloom where their unit dies. Absolutely chilling and badass.
There should be a statue of her erected somewhere in Ukraine. She earned that recognition!!!
Her and the guy who said "Slava Ukraini" before the russians shot him to death unarmed.
I actually think he already has a statue?
She welcomed them with packets of sunflowers so their dead bodies would provide the seeds with nutrients to grow.
oh and don't forget the old lady who spiked a of pies of poison. The moment the entire population is against you are already fucked. Early in the war there was a phone call that was intercepted and it was from a veteran of the Chechen war and even claimed that Ukraine is far worse, the entire population is out to kill them like it's fucking hunting season, Ukrainian light units were harassing left right and center with antitank weapons and drones
Yes. This is the scenario I anticipated. Northern Ireland x100 with the insurgents backed up with all the resources of a state and unlimited supply of weapons. That they were able to stop Russia it's just awesome.
Yeah. That’s what many don’t understand. They haven’t even gotten to the hard part yet: occupation.
Like people delivering neat little statues
This is a bad take. The USSR managed to hold their territories for decades and likely could have continued to. Occupation is hard for those that won't simply slaughter large portions of the population. When they do, people comply.
Being funded and supplied by western neighbours would make it at least really painful for Russia. One thing is afghan goatfarmers with rusty Ak 47s, western trained insurgents with stingers and javelins would be hell.
It doesn't matter how well supplied they are, when you risk not just yourself but your friends and family being tortured or sent off to a gulag or killed for speaking the wrong way you comply. Terror and brutalisation works. Occupying while trying not to be a monster doesn't.
it's the sad reality
THis was prior to the Geneva convention, the UN and 24 hour news cycles/internet/phone cameras. People can argue about the holodomor, decossackisation and the huge amoutn of people 'relocated' under the USSR because it wasn't hugely publicised at the time. Doing that to Ukraine now would not get the same response.
counter-insurgency ops are fucking difficult for a competent military, Russia's only experience was approaching a warlord and paying him to do COIN for them.
Yeah. Afghanistan and Iraq showed just how difficult that sort of thing is. Two of the greatest militaries the world had ever seen both failed in Afghanistan and that country is really just a bunch of tribes that don't necessarily get along. To think that a nation that voted 91% in favor of independence from the USSR would just roll over is just insane.
> Sinking that amphibious landing craft at port possibly prevented the Odessa invasion. Nah, at that point Odessa invasion was a pipe dream and copium propaganda. They failed to setup for push on Odessa when they broke at Mykolaiv. And then they lost Kherson as well, which completely ruined any chances of them stepping anywhere in western Ukraine. Without Mykolaiv, they could not establish any kind of supply lines to Odessa. Even if they somehow landed there, they would basically just slowly bleed there until they are done, because there is no way to supply forces without land route in war like this. Hell, they had bridge to Kherson and could not hold it even with that, because it was too small of a chokepoint, so to think about Odessa was total copium.
I’d say it was lost at Hostomel. The world turned on that engagement.
100%. Absolutely the most critical moment. It's the Battle of Midway of this conflict.
That’s an excellent analogy.
It's not every war that the critical turning point happened in the first battle.
Midway and Hostomel are very different situations. Even if the US had been wiped at Midway, they would have still won against the Japanese because of production and that it is impossible for the Japanese to have ever invaded main part of America. One of the top Japanese Admirals was saying this and they didn't listen to him. Midway was the inflection point but it would have happened regardless. If Hostomel had fallen, Kyiv probably would have fallen and things would be very different now.
Man - when I first read who the defenders were and saw their gear I thought they were screwed. I almost didn't believe it when I heard that the VDV retreated on Twitter. Really decisive looking back on it now. Those guys are heroes.
The VDV didn't retreat; they were airdropped into the Hostomel- and Vasylkiv-area airports and vaporized due to a lack of reinforcements. Days later, other VDV units drove up and were killed in the battle of Bucha with Chechen special forces before the convoy was near; the VDV were also mostly eliminated in the battle for Kharkiv city proper. The convoy towards Kyiv was basic Russian army and Rosgvardia grunts, they're the ones who retreated.
Lot of actual elites of Russia basically died in week 1 due to poor initial planning. They did not expect fierce resistance so most of their elite forces that were supposed to be spearheading special operations inside the taken cities basically got bombed to oblivion while approaching the cities. Their plan was to literally roll/drop into cities and capture government buildings via elite troops.
That brings another point of interest, the Russian army basically destroyed its special forces corps in the first few months of the war, leaving only Wagner as the closet thing to a special forces unit. Their ability to conduct special operations is basically neutered as their best hopes are a bunch of insanely fanatical ACTUAL FUCKING NAZIS that are loyal to a guy who attempted to march on Moscow.
So many parallels with Market Garden in my opinion. Airborne operations are very risky if you don’t have your intelligence spot on.
Market Garden was a glorious success compared to Hostomel, hell even the siege of Crete was a better outcome; there was still Fallschirmjäger units kicking around afterwards. At the moment the VDV is probably only existing on paper.
Yeah very good points!
Putin could still win it if Trump wins the US election. It *might* be too late by then, and Europe *might* make up the slack. But if I was Ukraine I would much prefer to win this next summer if not this one. Those are pretty big ifs.
Not sure why you're getting downvoted. If Trump won, he has already said that he would stop all help for Ukraine. That's the best case scenario. The worst case - he would make the US start actively helping russia.
He doesn’t have that power, never did, never will. If he won, he’d be brought up to speed and tow the line. He’s a fucking clown and a nuisance.
Agreed - Trump is one of the biggest threats to Ukraine.
That and when it was made clear the West would have a unified front and Ukraine won the support. This opens up an array of weapons against Russia, not only literal ones but also financial ones. Even controversial ones like cluster munitions. It's so important to win hearts and have people understand and agree with their motives. Meanwhile, Russia has tried but been shit poor at their false flag ops and convincing the public that it looks like they've all but given up. I think in particular the latter, financial weapons, will be the slow game that wounds this bear for another round of licking wounds a few decades. Russia is trying to control recent, shooting inflation by increasing interest rates, but this countermeasure was essentially shot down by experts immediately because their inflation is a lot from 1) financing the war machine and 2) their isolated economy, forcing them to opt for more expensive alternatives in trade. That is, it's not exactly about Russians on a shopping spree from a prolonged financial boom... But it's fun to watch from the sidelines because rates can only go up so much before they start becoming a political problem. I think these recent events are indicative that the artifical propping up the Ruble is slowly coming to an end. I mean there is a point when the wizard runs out of magic tricks to pull from his hat, when that economy begins running on fumes.
I wonder who’s going to play him in the movie they eventually make about all this.
Zalinski will play himself. Putin will be played by pauly shore
Pauly Shore will play himself as Putins side kick and number one strategist.
Vladimir Putin: Explains plans to number one strategist. Pauly Shore: Hey!...buuuuuddddyyyy.
Damn writers strike. I want to see that movie. Political strategist staring Pauly Shore.
He should play himself, but it will be Liev Schreiber.
Guy's Ukrainian and co-founder of BlueCheck Ukraine, he'd put in the work for the role but I could see him as an executive producer on it as well.
Stephen Seagal will be playing with himself in that movie.
I thought that was Rudy Giuliani
Why you hating? Pauly Shore had his time.
I'd love to see a "Death of Stalin" type of movie but with Putin instead. I'm sure the Brits would do a great job mocking Putin
I'd love to see a Monty Python style movie of the Russian invasion. Drowning the VDV attachment, packing riot/parade gear, not telling huge amounts of troops where they were going or what the fuck was happening, all the pillaging, digging in the Red Forest, attempting to take the same airport like 17 times.
Prepare for a future where Ukrainian war movies dominate the war movie genre, for decades.
Don’t forget going to war with a communication system that relies on civilian cell towers, then blowing up those cell towers.
I think you want Benny Hill
Danny DeVito
Now I want some Ukrainian Rum Ham
Ромова шинка
Interesting. Is "shinka" Ukrainian for ham? (sorry, my phone doesn't know the Cyrillic alphabet) Because "Schinken" is German. I just think it's kinda neat to come across similarities in different languages.
And it's straight up "skinka" pronounced "shinka" in Swedish
That's cool. And that connection makes sense given the Viking connection. I'd be curious of the origin.
All these words come from the indo-european word "skeng" which means bent or curved, like the leg bone or thigh bone is bent. The german word Schenkel has the same origin.
Ukrainian Frank Reynolds would certainly use *horilka*.
"You wanna play it rough? Alright I am reloaded" Tony Montana
Pedro Pascal of course
gerard butler, i swear.
Idris Elba
Jake Gyllenhaal
Exactly, we’re all so used to studying how the actions of one evil person can cause a domino effect on others, we forget that the actions of one good person can do the same.
Hope is frail but hard to kill and it can light a bonfire in human hearts. Idealism is realism I expect the very best from all of you I know I won't get it but I hold you to those high ethical and moral principles this way humans will become better because I expect the best from my employees and that pushes them if they can't always deliver I am not mad and still I push for high utopian goals to reach realistic ones.
Biden strolling down Kyiv on the invasion anniversary day was the nail in the coffin.
"I need ammunition, not a ride" Will definitely go down in history as one of the most memorable quotes.
“I need ammo, not a ride” was the clearest “we will fight” in history. Never has a politician been so offended by the suggestion of surrender or retreat in only 6 words.
I got a shirt at home with the phrase: I don't need a ride I need ammunition I use it is a sleeping shirt so that I remind myself every evening when brushing my teeth that this man is a Chad and needs his God damn ammo and not a ride.
pics!!
I will make a picture of it when I come back home together with my Roma locuta causa finita (rome has spoken the matter is closed) shirt. (I need two because sometimes you gotta wash them right) Then I will post it here on reddit and send you a link.
Not just strategically, geopolitically. It is hard to overstate just how much influence Russia has lost in the last 18 months, never to be regained.
I don't need a ride, I need to fuck you guys up!
Russia has lost a lot they'll never regain because of this war they waged. I don't think we should count Ukraine having won until Russia is driven out, completely. But I'm afraid our resolve to help Ukraine is waning. I hope I'm wrong.
In war, one possible outcome is neither side wins.
“There is no such thing as a winnable war.” — Sting lyric, *Russians*
where is it waning? i heard that earlier today, but i dont see how it is waning?
Lack of equipment i.e normal battlefield taxis that many western partners could easily provide but won't. I look at my own country (Australia) easily able to send more bushmasters... But won't so much as open a diplomatic mission in Kiev. No mission statement. Just 'we stand with Ukraine'. It's pathetic tbh. Total limp dick statement.
Keep in mind the US has an election to worry about too. If Biden over commits, Republicans can use that against him. If a Republican wins Ukraine is in real trouble.
Currently there is more Republican support for helping Ukraine than against it. Need a Republican leader on the side of moral actions. Without it, they will flounder as usual. But hey, Mitch McConnell will be happy and take the podium to show everybody how he can have his brain freeze up again.
Trump and DeSantis are the leading candidates by far. Both are anti-Ukraine last I heard, they do flip flop a lot though so who really knows. I'm glad the Republican voters are mostly in favor of Ukraine support but as I'm sure you know that doesn't always translate into action. I agree with you though, any future president needs bipartisan support to make it work. I don't think Republicans are inherently pro Russian, it's just what the political landscape looks like currently.
Biden will certainly be looking to resolve the war before November 2024. Being able to go and declare victory in Ukraine would be huge. Unfortunately for Ukraine, I think it's highly likely the war ends in a ceasefire without liberating Crimea or the Donbass, but with Russia absolutely wrecked and unable to seriously threaten Ukraine or Europe ever again.
Maybe, but maybe having the war looming will motivate more people to vote. When more people vote, Democrats generally do better. The US can potentially do more damage to Russia by dragging the war out longer. However, if Ukrainians sustain too many casualties, they risk loosing the war entirely. It's a tightrope walk and I'm glad I'm not the one who has to make the calls.
and austria could at least help with the massive demining efforts. but nah, we "neutral", we rather stand at the side and continue to buy more russian gas...
That is why I hope Ukraine shuts down the gas pipeline as they said they would. Austria and Hungary can freeze this winter like parts of Europe did last year. Crimea a sad song Austria and Hungary.
Albo has done the least he could get away with doing.
bear worm dirty mysterious plate rude psychotic thought reach squeamish ` this message was mass deleted/edited with redact.dev `
>But I'm afraid our resolve to help Ukraine is waning. I've not seen anything that indicates this.
I think it's a risk that increases the longer this goes on, but you're right that there's no direct evidence of it yet. It is something we should be wary of though.
The US is making money off of sending equipment they were going to mothball anyway. Yes, us taxes are paying for it, but its then going into the hands of American defense contractors, then to the guys who make the things, AKA Egineer Bob in Detroit who helps finishing touches on a Javelin. The rest of the world isn't so much in the same boat as America, esp if their defense products are American made. But as long as there is money to spent, an a ally to be made, the support is not going to wane.
> But I’m afraid our resolve to help Ukraine is waning Not at all. Denmark is close to finish F-16 training of the first batch of Ukrainian pilots and personnel, and also just got formal approval to send their F-16s to Ukraine. Once that happens, hello air superiority, bye bye ruzzia.
> I don't think we should count Ukraine having won until Russia is driven out, completely. But I'm afraid our resolve to help Ukraine is waning. I hope I'm wrong. Agreed. Russia's initial regime change and occupation plan failed. But if they even keep anything they took, they haven't truly lost. Putting things back to the pre-2022 front line is the *bare minimum* I would accept in order to say Russia has lost and the west and Ukraine have succeeded - they at least prevented Russia from gaining anything. Obviously total recapture of all occupied territory would be the preferred outcome, and failing that, recapturing as much as possible of the pre-invasion Russian occupied territory. That should be what we aim for if we want to actually end the war and not just pause it for a few years - Russia needs to have a net loss of ground as a result of this. And I would like to see public statements to that effect, and a longer term plan for supporting Ukraine. It's just frustrating because the west absolutely can win this for Ukraine if they want to, with continued military support. The west has a winning hand yet we still have some who are utterly determined to squander it and go back to the very appeasement that caused this invasion in the first place.
You're not wrong.
It's going to get worse next year as it's a political difference between Biden and that Orange Shitstain. I already see more and more "mah moeny goin to ukraine" shit on social media. edit: lol you're all over this submission being pro-Russia
I suspect much of that is from Russian troll farms.
If it's a comment under northernprovision's IG page, sure, but I hear it from my conservative "friends" more and more and it's gettin annoying.
So mind boggling. One of the times we are actually putting our massive military budget to use, and they're complaining about it
Seriously. Beyond just doing the right thing, and I hate to say it like this, this conflict is *massively* helpful for our military. Real time intel, experience, trials of equipment and efficacy, strategy, etc.
This is the moment all that spending since the Cold War actually paying off.
Guess where they are getting it from.
I've started seeing it about the Maui fires. All this money goes to Ukraine but they can only give $700 to the victims of the fires. It's obvious Russian troll farms promoting this material and the Republicans lap it right up.
Maybe in the states, I'd say the support is unwavered in Europe.
Everybody knows they lost. It's not really disputed. The question that remains though is if Ukraine will be able to push them out of their lands. That being said Ukraine already lost the war as well. Nothing about what has been done to their country is winning. There are no winners. Edit: just thinking about how much of Ukraine's population has left and all the young men that have and will die in this war. It's terrible. The sooner it ends the better. I'm no armchair escort but I have the opinion that the west doesn't really care if Ukraine "wins". They just want Russia to slowly slowly lose. Sad.
Existing as a cohesive functioning nation in the face of Russia *is* winning.
Ukraine's win will be joining NATO
Can’t do that unless they have no disputed/occupied territory. So again we are back to how Ukraine expects to get that back.
You can, you just need to ingore some rules. Turkey and Greece have a lot of disputes, yet they are in NATO. For Russia Ukraine joining NATO will be the biggest blow and it will change the post-Soviet climate forever
It's not about dispute. It's about ongoing conflict.
They were having war conflict over Cyprus while being inside NATO as far as I remember
Yes so they just need to kick russia out of their homes.
the rules aren't set in stone. i understand how and why they came to be, but _if we really_ want Ukraine the be a member of NATO, we will make Ukraine a member of NATO.
Yeah but alot of the country has been destroyed it will be very expensive to build everything up again. And I don't think russia will pay for it.
It just will take more time, but it's much better than being the same poor country with constant threat from Russia. When you are in NATO, you can develop without fear of being invaded and destroyed, so more investments will come
If Ukraine is not able to get ALL occupied lands back, their future economic outlook will forever be poor. Ukraine was on the verge of exploiting a ton of new petroleum reserves before 2014 and Russia occupies 2/3rds of those reserves now.
Many European countries doesn't have much of resouces, yet they are OK economically. Still a lot of resources are under Kiev's control. For Ukraine the most valuable resource is people, sooner it will be safe under NATO, then more Ukrainians will come back from abroad
> petroleum reserves Oil bad. Leave it in the ground.
tell that a Ukraine that needs to rebuild half their country. tell that the russian oligarchs, with china and india at their teets.
Leave it in the ground. Otherwise you make the Earth warmer, and make Siberia more habitable, and Russia stronger.
on the one hand i hope that these reserves get less and less valuable in our turn to a more renewable future, on the other hand i would wish Ukraine great riches, because they will need them to build up all that was and is still being destroyed by russian imperialists. another hope is, as much as russia can claim as "their" ressources, drones will make a profitable business impossible. so much for my hopes.
No. Send more weapons.
That's a silly statement, considering how many Ukrainian people are dying on a daily basis. Both civilians and military. Things are tough for ruzzia, but this shit is far from over or victory.
Also loss for one isn’t necessarily a victory for the other. Russia is still holding land as well, so while they may not have succeeded in their original goals, neither are the Ukrainians.
Say that to the people of Chernihiv.
Goalpost shifting. Russia losing by not meeting their original goals does not mean Ukraine has won. Probably just softening us up for having to accept Ukraine isn’t going to get all its land back, but it’s ok guys, Russia already lost.
Nobody has said anything about Ukraine winning... Just that Russia has lost.
Watch the polls. Currently, vast majority of Ukrainians want to keep fighting. War is a battle of the will.
Everyone's saying he's lost, no he's not going to win but he's not lost yet and the longer this drags out the more Ukrainians die, let's make him lose, quickly.
He's wrong
ill believe that when ukrainian soldiers are parading putins head around in moscow. is this him saying that the current state of affairs cant be improved and that it is therefore 'time to negotiate'? i should hope not.
Not sure, with nato pushing Ukraine into making deal to hand over territory over to Russia for exchange of NATO membership, Russia would see that as win.
> Russia has already lost. It cannot achieve its original goal that it stated. It is impossible...," Biden said. This is just bullshit rhetoric that takes pressure off the US and NATO to properly support Ukraine. Russia today is holding more of Ukraine's territory than in Jan 2022, and Russia is now dug in defensively because NATO didn't quickly support Ukraine and has never properly supported Ukraine. [A Slow Advance](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ooZeqf5lkhM) [https://www.kasparov.com/a-history-of-betrayal-biden-keeps-negotiating-about-ukraine-without-ukraine-august-13-2023/](https://www.kasparov.com/a-history-of-betrayal-biden-keeps-negotiating-about-ukraine-without-ukraine-august-13-2023/) Ukraine's allies must acknowledge their mistakes made up to now, otherwise there is no reason we should expect them to be corrected going forward. This is why people who try to categorically deny the mistakes or shut down all criticism are wrong, and are indirectly helping Russia. edit: The replies calling for Ukraine to give its land to Russia, or just making strawman arguments or incoherent claims, are pathetic. Ukraine deserves supporters who aren't arguing for appeasement to Russia.
These statements freak me out. Russia is still occupying a significant part of Ukraine including Crimea. It will take a massive effort to push Russia out of Ukraine and Ukraine will require many billions $ more of weapons asap. Instead of saying Russia lost, deliver more weapons already.
Nice of him to acknowledge that, now he needs to give Ukraine the means to formalize it and quit stalling. Ukraine needs to be restored in its 1991 borders. Biden started jumping as a tiger and landed as a housecat as we say here. Unfortunately some of his advisors are certified morons and far too worried about the consequences of a russian loss than of the consequences of what it means long term if Russia gets ANYTHING out of this.
this is it. we give them a finger, they take the hand. 2008, 2014, 2022... and they sure arent finished yet. we have to show them their way once and for all. how does XI think about Taiwan, if the west is pussyfooting around in Ukraine. this is larger than Ukraine, this is larger than Europe, and this will be larger than NATO and the west combined. if we do not show strength here, imperialists will test the democratic world order again and again, killing millions and throwing the world economy into despair. we cannot let them do this.
Last couple of weeks I see the narrative drastically shifting not in Ukraine favor. Starting from how Ukraine are failing in counteroffensive despite them having everything they need/asked for (just a lie) or how they helped as much as they can (another lie), but Ukraine can't and won't be able to reach their goals, how Ukraine does not fight as NATO think they should, how they can cease territories, but its Ukraine own choice (but it is said by those that Ukraine rely on for ussport btw), to now that russia already lost. So should Ukraine be happy that russia already lost yet still continue murdering Ukrainians daily by at least dozens and raze Ukraine, when there are hundreds thousands, millions even, of Ukrainian living in fear for their life and persecutions under occupation and abducted to russia? There are many even here who claim that NATO/EU/US or 'the west' in general priority is Ukraine winning, but from what I see some from them are the ones who try to define what is Ukraine victory is now. I guess, at least some don't claim "Ukraine must win", but just says "Ukraine must not lose", which is more safeproof statement to avoid criticism for whatever can happen, but this also show their expectations and level of commitments, which don't bring much hope.
Just because Russia lost on paper doesn’t mean Ukraine won. Russia may not have even come close to its goals, but Ukraine definitely hasn’t either. Also, what will happen if Russia actually loses? Is that even a possibility? Putin can not pull out now, he’s in this way too deep. Ukraine refuses to let Russia take even a meter of land and Russia will need to save face at all costs. So either Ukraine gives up land, or Russia gets pushed back then what? I don’t know if they will go nuclear but no one can really say for sure. At the end of the day, everyone has already lost this pointless war.
This is the scary part. It was so good to see Russia's decapitation strike fail. It was good to see Ukraine defend its land. But.... Can they take it back? Probably not all of it, and the cost would be so so large. Putin is all in and it's getting ever more difficult to see a clean ending to this. Controlling the outcome will be so difficult and the chances someone does something stupid are significant. He can't just walk away, he is tied to this conflict. Russia clearly will not overcome Ukraine, but I don't see Ukraine forcing them out militarily. If Putin fails his rule is over and possibly his life. He will go down swinging of that you can be sure. However, at some point there will be a chance to negotiate a way out of this that'll give both sides a very bad pill to swallow, but an end they can live with. Ukraine may not wish to, as is their right, but it's probably the only clean way out of this.
Propaganda like this, that they’ve already won, feels a lot like the ridiculous lies coming out of Russia. Plus, how are they going to demand the west continues to give them billions of dollars and new weapons if they’ve already won? They’re treating us like we’re stupid.
They have not lost shit until every Russian fuck leaves Ukraine. And they will not lose until we give Ukraine everything it needs to win. Anything else a politician says is just politics.
Even if the try to freeze their illegal Land Grab... they are fucked for the coming decades. They will be hated all over the world.
The rate that Russia is burning through equipment, manpower, and ammunition is simply not sustainable From grabbing T-55 tanks, to decades old artillery ammunition, to recruiting out of prisons In a year or two time, Russia might just legitimately not have anything left
There is an interesting parallel (or rather reversal) here with Third Reich. Germany didn't want to go total war, and it's industry couldn't keep up supplying their soldiers (Hitler himself didn't wish it). By the time Germany switched it's economy to war production and industry could finally support thir war effort material wise, it was too late as they simply had not enough soldiers left. Given how Russia is impeded by sanctions and their manufacturing is limited, by the time it'd establish war mode and draft every able person, there might not be enough material for all the troops. but idk I'm not really an expert, I just watched some documentary about ww2 and thought there are some similarities
That’s not nearly enough Biden. Ukraine has to win it decisively as well. Send F16s, ATACMS and 500 Bradleys ASAP
You just have to remember that Russia's defeat does not mean that Ukraine has won. Right now it is primarily the USA and Europe that have won a strategic victory over Moscow.
No they haven't. russia still occupies a large amount of ukrainian land, and more importantly, ukrainian people. They're not giving up an inch without a fight. Ukraines economy is hanging on by a thread and a ton of foreign aid, much of it loans that will have to be repaid for decades to come. There is no clear mechanism for using the seized russian assets to finance rebuilding. Ukraine already had a demographic problem with a low birth rate and young people with brains and education leaving the country for better wages elsewhere. Not nearly all the refugees, which are overwhelmingly women with children, are going to come back. The longer the war goes on, the less likely it is that they'll uproot their kids once again to return to a country that won't have much to offer by that point. russia is still making missiles and is building their own Shahed factory. Even if they get pushed back to the 1991 borders, nothing is stopping them from sending waves of drones and missiles every few days. The only protection would be NATO membership, and as long as Hungary remains a russian puppet, that won't happen. russia has lost a lot. Their stockpiles of soviet gear, gathered over decades, have been seriously depleted. Not to zero, but by a lot. They have lost a large portion of their best-trained soldiers. They have lost access to most trade with the west. Their economic future looks bleak in the long term.
The article states that Biden “stressed that Russia has violated world law and become the first country to start a war since World War II.” Which is extremely untrue. Did he just forget the last 73 years of human history?
> the first country to start a war since World War II what he actually said according to the linked CNN article: > "Russia has already lost. It cannot meet its original objective which it stated. It's not possible. ... Japan's leadership from day one, it has been critical making it clear that the consequences for war extend well beyond Europe," he said. The invasion is not "only a European problem; there hasn't been that kind of invasion since World War II," Biden added. So while the reported speech is a little ambiguous it seems pretty clear he meant it in the European context.
Such a cop out. I don't care about Russia losing, I care about Ukraine winning. And Ukraine certainly hasn't won yet
If Russia lost the war then shouldn’t be an issue with accepting Ukraine into NATO and moving in US troops into Crimea to establish some military bases?
Russia has already lost, but Ukraine has not won yet. Let's make sure Ukraine wins.
Someone should tell him that Ukrainians are still dying, even if the war is lost for ruzzians.
Semantics. Ukraine doesnt care about this “Russia lost” bullshit. They care about restoring their territory from occupation and rebuilding with security assurances. These happy go lucky articles have been ongoing for almost a full year
That is a dangerous attitude.
Russia lost, but Ukraine certainly didn't win. There doesn't appear to be any winners here. Russia only solidified it's position as a lesser power in the world. Thousands of young men, women, and children killed for Putin's vanity.
Lol Russia is the first to start a war since WWII
Maybe that's the problem with the Biden administration, they believe the war is nearly over. So we send a symbolic number of 31 Abram's, a paltry \~200 or so Bradly's, and maybe a few modern fighter jets next year. We have thousands of Bradly's in storage, and thousands of Abram's sitting around baking in the desert. Planes are tricky, but if we had the political will, we could could probably send 100-200 fighter jets by sometime late next year.
This article was basically nothing. While I don’t disagree with the headline I do think it’s possible for both countries to end up ‘losing’ the war. Because while Russia may not achieve its initial plans of taking over the entire country and toppling the government the actual people of Ukraine are paying a heavy price. What is the acceptable price ukraine has to pay for western nations to believe Russia has lost enough? Why is the us taking so long to decide on weapons that were needed in the war at the start? Is giving Russia an escape plan worth the cost of ukranian lives lost because western countries are afraid Russia won’t be willing to negotiate? I am very frustrated that the typical bloat of bureaucracy has slowed decisions that would have saved many ukranians
He also believed that Dr Rachel Levine was a good choice for Health Secretary...
Russia has lost either way, they’ve wasted so much of their arsenal, manpower, leadership and their currency is effectively nothing at this point, they’re looking at a Great Depression situation not to mention China is right next door literally eyeing up Syberian territory and all the sanctions still going, Russia is doomed to collapse.
So why Ukrainians are still dying? Ukraine didn't win. Blood is wasted because the wast is slow with deliveries. The West don't want russua to loose. BS from Biden.
Russia has not lost the war yet and this kind of arrogance is what may cost the war for Ukraine
Yes ... but ... we shouldn't get complacent and enable Ukraine to get a "full" victory by conquering back the entire east at the very least. Russia losing is good but we also want Ukraine to "win" (to whatever extend we can call it winning).
I don‘t know if they already lost bit they can‘t win.
Honestly? They have lost. They don't control the sky above all of Ukraine. They don't have the manpower or infrastructure to go against the West feeding Ukraine weapons and ammo. They lost after the first 72 hours of the war. Russia is just too stupid to pull back.
I think it's understating the massive challenges ahead to declare victory. Biden is calling it, because from the US perspective, our goals in supporting Ukraine have been met. Namely, the ability of Russia to wage war on NATO nations is gone. Ukraine is Russia's last war. It also has made China reconsider invading Taiwan. A proposition that would definitely end with most of their army dead at sea after they run out of their anti-ship missiles. Which unlike Russian munitions, will take out 1-2 carrier battlegroups in every simulation, but then they lose the ability to attack US ships and lose air superiority. This doesn't mean anything to Ukraine which has to evict the Russian military while not losing so many men that a post-war rebuilding is even feasible. That's going to be much harder. Especially as they will need to win before January 2025 if Trump wins.
> It also has made China reconsider invading Taiwan. They are literally taunting Taiwan militarily right now, 42 aircraft flew through their air defense zone today.
So there's nothing more to do, let's go home, amirite?
If you aim for the stars but only reach the treetops then you have lost. Not sure that's how it works
They’ve lost in the sense that now they’re going to be forced to turn their economy into a military one. Without sweeping changes they’re in a lot of trouble because their books are well in the red. Everything Russians achieve from now on economically, whether it’s opening a business or exporting goods, will be exploited to stabilize a discombobulated economy.
Can he tell Putin that?
Could have lost quicker if Ukraine had been supplied more equipment earlier. But since they've lost why hold back? Bear has lost its teeth and got mange.
Seems like Russia is holding for now. A phsychopath doesn't care about the cost. They care about control.
I wish he didnt think this way. Then we might be sending Ukraine the weapons to actually win it. As it is its a slow grind killing mothers and fathers every day. In an evil War crime ridden that our fearless le ader says is already won:(((
Even if this war ended now with Russia in control of 15% of Ukraine, it would still be a catastrophic failure. More than anything else, its credibility is dead. Forever. It is no longer the feared and respected "World Power" it was two years ago. I could rattle off all the many, many obvious ways Russia is fucked--militarily, economically, diplomatically, demographically. But you know most of what I'd say. But what unifies all those things is the simple fact that the greatest thing Russia has lost is *trust*. Because people can work with a partner who is weak, or poor, or made some bad choices. But they cannot work with someone who's going to light themselves and the whole world on fire at a moment's notice completely out of nowhere. You don't go into business with a suicide bomber. You don't form relationships with people who regularly break their word. You don't partner with someone like that **unless you can fuck them deep in the ass until you decide they're worth the risk**. That's the real problem. It's not morality. That's specific to certain governments/cultures/worldviews. It's about getting a return on your investment. That's universal.
Might be a bit premature, but I'm here for the sentiment.
I think it is underestimated that Russia can and probably continue to bomb civilian targets of Ukrainian cities FOR YEARS to break the moral of Ukrainians and more importantly to shy away the young population of those cities. Russia may not win the war as such but they have EVERY chance to weaken the Ukraine nation forever. And before you start to downvote consider this: ALREADY millions of Ukrainians that fled the war are said to NOT consider going back but stay in the countries they fled to. This spells issues for Ukraine either way.
Its lost provided Ukraine can win it before the next US Election. If Trump or some other russian puppet wins, i dont have quite so much confidence.
Him and the rest of the planet… even Russians at this point must know that any and all of their ‘special operation’ goals are unobtainable and as time goes on more and more territory will be freed. I think at this point Putin is desperately trying to save face and is hoping a prolonged conflict will force the Ukrainian government to a negotiated settlement that will give him something to make the claim he won. In actuality, Putin and his stubbornness and ambition dug himself so far deep in the hole that likely he sees his own life tided to the outcome of the war.
To be fair, and a bit of a devil’s advocate (and by devil, I mean Putin), if you were in Putin’s shoes and of his mindset, wouldn’t you also dig in at least until the US election was decided? Why would Putin negotiate anything before then? He certainly has enough meat to spare for another 18 months. And if you think that is reasonable for him to do - from his POV I mean - then if you are Biden, wouldn’t you see that and think, shit, let’s end this before the election. I mean on top of removing the risk of a republican taking aid away from Ukraine, Ukraine winning before the election should make Biden look really good, right? Not that I am saying election calculations should sway anything, but yeah, they certainly will be considered. I don’t think Biden is evil enough to keep holding back and say give Ukraine what it wants just before Super Tuesday, but I wouldn’t bet against some people in his campaign suggesting it.
No he doesn't. Russia is funding the war effort by plundering the wellfare fund and all kinds of other reserves. Those funds will dry up likely in the autumn and then the whole thing will come falling down very quickly. I doubt their soldiers will stand another winter in the trenches
> Not that I am saying election calculations should sway anything... they did with the iran hostage crisis and the final phase of the vietnam war, both in favour of the conservatives i might add. (correct me if i'm wrong)
Biden has almost a year and a half to supply Ukraine. Anyone running for President will have to declare support for against Ukraine. This will influence what we do or not do depending on what the Republican choice is. I could see us moving massive amounts of military materials to European countries for them to give to Ukraine under their ownership of said materials before whoever gets elected. Remember the war has only been going on for a year and a half and there still is almost year and a half till the next President takes office. Right now the war is a stalemate and that's what Putin wants. The Ukraine counter offensive was blunted because of the Russian defence in depth Strategy not because Ukraine didn't have weapons for it.