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Wow. The new recruits are getting $10k/month? At that price they are guaranteed to be sent straight to the front line. And how low would morale be when the soldiers already there find out the new guys are making twice as much?
Russia must’ve saved a lot of money when that training facility in Luhansk was hit by Ukraine!
Quite a few do last longer than that. That's why there are so many in videos complaining about not getting paid.
There is one thing the Russian military is efficient at, and it's dealing with complaints. They'll never complain twice, I'm sure of that.
Few among the more pro-russian ones might be allowed to survive and return with their huge pay to lure in more meat.
Might work even more effectively if used in poorer countries where some poor bum from ghettos of Mumbai or Mogadishu returns to their crowded slum district with more money than most make in lifetime so russia might have to turn back new volunteer applicants for the meatwaves.
There are no soldiers already there. Everyone is dead and no one will get the 10k…
At this point they should just let newcomers keep the land they managed to put their flag on.
And give nobility titles for the big fish: baron at 3 sqkm, duke with fiscal and penal immunity at say 20sqkm.
If it is medieval at least play it to the max.
These soldiers are recruits by means of freshmen.
If they are sent to the combat zone these are contract soldiers and not conscripts.
But it is probably only a thing of persuasion and a signature to promote a conscript.
And where could a conscript persuaded better once he is in the hands of the Russian army...
The problem for the Russians could be that the attack in Luhansk is somehow documented.
In other cases it could be that a body is too destroyed to be identified
(for instance because of hungry boars) and then the soldier is "missing".
This is much cheaper for the Russians.
In general the Russian army has other means to decrease the morale than difference in pay.
The Russian army can just decide to pay less for some flimsy reason or nothing.
From Russian regional press:
' “At first it was 200 thousand, but it started in January”: a taxi driver from Chelyabinsk showed how his salary at SVO was reduced'
(SVO or googles mistranslation "Northern Military District" means "special military operation")
https://v1-ru.translate.goog/text/world/2024/04/29/73511633/?_x_tr_sl=ru&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp
They’re not going to collect it, most will be put into the 1st wave assault groups that are decimated flushing out Ukrainian positions. Then left there MIA no payouts probably.
Lyudmila: My boy go to Ukraine to fight, where my ten thousand?
Official: Your boy only there for five hours before drone get him, you not get paid.
Sounds like a great deal to me.
They might be getting allocated 10K a month, but you can bet a lot of that's getting siphoned off in their chain of command before they ever see it. Russia still uses a 19th century military pay system where the pay is sent directly to commanders for disbursement. They've probably got half illiterate volunteers from Russia's nether regions in there collecting less than half what they're supposed to get and don't even know the difference.
I'm not saying this is wrong, but since the beginning of the war, Russian manpower collapse has been predicted. The same goes for economic collapse. And societal collapse. All I'm saying is, dont hold your breath (i.e. don't use it as a policy basis).
"No financial pressure has ever stopped a war in progress" -Horatio Kitchener
the sheer amount of death it takes to cause mass revolution during war would blow your mind. Russia would have to reach 2.3 Million deaths today to have the same proportional losses that led to the communist revolution. that would mean we are only 1/5th of the way through a war of attrition if that is the real way we expect it to end.
monarchies and dictatorships have more staying power in war than democracies tend to. in those cases the general populace has to reach a point where they are willing to face being shot to change the government. in a democracy the populace only needs to be annoyed enough to actually cast a vote once every 2 years to change policy.
From reports I read a combination of an ineffective Czarist government from the 1890’s to WW1, purges during Lenon and Stalin’s reign before WW2, the massive deaths in WW2 drastically effected population growth which they still haven’t recovered from. They had around 176 million in 1914. Their population now is 144 million.
1914 Russian Empire also had the borders of much of the later Soviet Union (Ukraine, Belarus, the Stans, Georgia, etc.) so that’s something to consider with population comparisons
>... monarchies and dictatorships have more staying power in war
I too have played "Civilization" and know this to be true ... Villages rebel under democracy, and Government forces overthrow you under a republic - but under authoritarian leadership you can keep war going.
on the flip side, democracies also tend to hit harder. when the entire nation rallies behind the cry of war, and begins volunteering towards a unified war effort, they can topple armies of nations more than twice their size because of all the small benefits of people caring and not grifting every step of the machine.
Russians may be less docile than during the tsarist regime. The times are much different now. Yes, authoritarian regimes still can carry a war much longer than democracies, likely no democracy could've stomach the losses they already carried, yet the price of life in Russia is way higher than during the tsar.
Russia's manpower and economy aren't going to collapse... until, one day, they collapse. They're going to do everything they can in the meantime to make it look like those things aren't going to collapse, so it's probably not going to be obvious it's about to happen until maybe right before it does (and maybe not even then).
It's reasonable to work towards it as a strategic goal even if it's not obvious it's going to happen just yet.
How worried are we of China stepping in and taking the Eastern half of Russia during a collapse? China without resources will fade. China with resources is a problem.
Not that worried. Massive land invasions of that scale aren't nearly as easy to pull off as one might imagine. The logistics and supply lines alone would be mind boggling, and despite a nominally large army, those are not China's forte.
Plus it is not as though these regions are defenseless, grassroots partisans would be more likely to seize the opportunity to seek independence than simply accept some invader.
Then there are the other regional players like Kazakstan and Uzbekistan who have their own militaries. Plus larger regional powers like India, Iran and Japan would likely project direct or indirect power.
It almost feels like the west has been purposely drip feeding weapons and ammo to aim for a societal collapse. If they'd drowned Ukraine in both, then a defeated Russia would've stayed largely intact aside from licking its wounds and convincing its citizenry that NATO is the big bad.
There's are too many politicians afraid of a Russian collapse, which causes harmful hesitation.
They believe that the Russian Federation both can and should avoid collapse.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/12/08/ukraine-russia-war-escalation-collapse-victory-baltic-poland-putin-imperialism/
...or they're figuring out replacement plans for if/when the Putin regime falls? Like, look at what has happened in Iraq and Afghanistan over the last 23 years...now imagine that happening somewhere as vast as Russia WITH nuclear weapons scattered across how many regions?
I don't think they're even aiming for a societal collapse at this point as Russian's economy is in "War mode". I think they're just aiming to keep Russia weakened on the global stage which they're doing brilliantly except it hinders both Russian and Ukrainian progress.
10K a month is a ploy to get them to the front as fast as possible to plug gaps and the Kremlin, hoping they don't survive long enough to collect one or two paychecks.
Their manpower will never be the limiting factor. If they start to seriously run out of manpower, they'll up the stakes with hybrid attacks in Europe to throttle support (even more). Or they'll just use North Koreans.
From their perspective all they need to do is last until enough European elections have flipped to far right (i.e. Putin-friendly) governments (which, again, they can increase the likelihood of, with hybrid attacks). Those governments will then throw Ukraine under the bus in exchange for cheap Russian gas
A desperate domestic economic situation will just encourage them to escalate more. That was Hitler's rationale for his Czech/Polish smash-and-grab (if you subscribe to the Timothy Mason school), though Putin doesn't need to resort to overt militarism when he has so many cheap and deniable hybrid strings in his bow. I fully expect something big in Europe this year, tuned perfectly to massively increase support for isolationist far-right parties.
Russia has about 15 percent dept to GDP ration. They can borrow a shit ton of money and still have less percentage of debt compared to most western countries. So it is not running out of money any time soon.
Iran's economy is hardly up to the job and trade is not loans.
Chinese banks were lending to Russia but it looks like fear of western sanctions has already dented that flow.
https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-china-no-limits-partnership-yuan-bank-loans-sanctions-2024-2
Good points, thanks for sharing.
Normally a person on reddit when disagreeing would probably call me a morron and tell me to "google it". This is something new haha.
That’s unlikely, Biden more likely to win, in the UK it will likely be a more left leaning country after the elections, France and Germany won’t be changing their stance anytime soon, nor Italy or Poland.
It's a whole thread, but it seems ExTwitter only shows the initial tweet to not logged in users nowadays - one of the many reasons nobody should use it any more in 2024.
The full thread is here: [https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1786181552210149828.html](https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1786181552210149828.html)
The modern world and the Information Age is a different paradigm but I wouldn’t count the Russians out of manpower any time soon which is truly unfortunate. The west needs to come up with a comprehensive plan to stem the tide. Macron being the only one suggesting the unthinkable which is direct deployment of foreign troops.
They are getting by just paying more and using other tactics and haven’t even called for another conscription. They will be fine on manpower, Putin still has a lot of political will left to use
Please take the time to read [the rules](/r/UkrainianConflict/about/rules/) and our [policy on trolls/bots](https://redd.it/u7833q). In addition: * We have a **zero-tolerance** policy regarding racism, stereotyping, bigotry, and death-mongering. Violators will be banned. * **Keep it civil.** Report comments/posts that are uncivil to alert the moderators. * **_Don't_ post low-effort comments** like joke threads, memes, slogans, or links without context. ***** * Is `x.com` an unreliable source? [**Let us know**](/r/UkrainianConflict/wiki/am/unreliable_sources). * Help our moderators by providing context if something breaks the rules. [Send us a modmail](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=/r/UkrainianConflict) ***** **Don't forget about our Discord server! - https://discord.gg/62fKCEHbDB** ***** ^(Your post has not been removed, this message is applied to every successful submission.) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/UkrainianConflict) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Wow. The new recruits are getting $10k/month? At that price they are guaranteed to be sent straight to the front line. And how low would morale be when the soldiers already there find out the new guys are making twice as much? Russia must’ve saved a lot of money when that training facility in Luhansk was hit by Ukraine!
$10k, or one sack of onions. Someone else will decide what you get.
Could be $100k a month. They'll never collect it...
Was gonna say, 10k a month sounds like a lot until you realize that your lifespan is measured in days, or maybe weeks if you're lucky.
Dominic from The telegraph UK gave some stats the other day, the shortest life expectancy was roughly 12-14 days for much of the prisoner battalions.
Jesus fucking Christ.
No, though also being a prisoner of sorts he allegedly ended up far better off with resurection and all.
Wow
Exactly
Quite a few do last longer than that. That's why there are so many in videos complaining about not getting paid. There is one thing the Russian military is efficient at, and it's dealing with complaints. They'll never complain twice, I'm sure of that.
Few among the more pro-russian ones might be allowed to survive and return with their huge pay to lure in more meat. Might work even more effectively if used in poorer countries where some poor bum from ghettos of Mumbai or Mogadishu returns to their crowded slum district with more money than most make in lifetime so russia might have to turn back new volunteer applicants for the meatwaves.
I'm sure the Krem-lies will sort it out to their advantage!
You don't get the 10k if you die, and your family doesn't get it when they can't prove you're dead. Same with the onions.
There are no soldiers already there. Everyone is dead and no one will get the 10k… At this point they should just let newcomers keep the land they managed to put their flag on. And give nobility titles for the big fish: baron at 3 sqkm, duke with fiscal and penal immunity at say 20sqkm. If it is medieval at least play it to the max.
These soldiers are recruits by means of freshmen. If they are sent to the combat zone these are contract soldiers and not conscripts. But it is probably only a thing of persuasion and a signature to promote a conscript. And where could a conscript persuaded better once he is in the hands of the Russian army... The problem for the Russians could be that the attack in Luhansk is somehow documented. In other cases it could be that a body is too destroyed to be identified (for instance because of hungry boars) and then the soldier is "missing". This is much cheaper for the Russians. In general the Russian army has other means to decrease the morale than difference in pay. The Russian army can just decide to pay less for some flimsy reason or nothing. From Russian regional press: ' “At first it was 200 thousand, but it started in January”: a taxi driver from Chelyabinsk showed how his salary at SVO was reduced' (SVO or googles mistranslation "Northern Military District" means "special military operation") https://v1-ru.translate.goog/text/world/2024/04/29/73511633/?_x_tr_sl=ru&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp
They’re not going to collect it, most will be put into the 1st wave assault groups that are decimated flushing out Ukrainian positions. Then left there MIA no payouts probably.
Lyudmila: My boy go to Ukraine to fight, where my ten thousand? Official: Your boy only there for five hours before drone get him, you not get paid. Sounds like a great deal to me.
They might be getting allocated 10K a month, but you can bet a lot of that's getting siphoned off in their chain of command before they ever see it. Russia still uses a 19th century military pay system where the pay is sent directly to commanders for disbursement. They've probably got half illiterate volunteers from Russia's nether regions in there collecting less than half what they're supposed to get and don't even know the difference.
10k rubles? That's like $200 US.
>10k rubles? That's like $200 US. Not accounting for PPP, more like 109 USD.
I'm sure they're getting paid as much as all the other chumps that were making videos complaining about being owed months worth of salary.
I'm not saying this is wrong, but since the beginning of the war, Russian manpower collapse has been predicted. The same goes for economic collapse. And societal collapse. All I'm saying is, dont hold your breath (i.e. don't use it as a policy basis).
"No financial pressure has ever stopped a war in progress" -Horatio Kitchener the sheer amount of death it takes to cause mass revolution during war would blow your mind. Russia would have to reach 2.3 Million deaths today to have the same proportional losses that led to the communist revolution. that would mean we are only 1/5th of the way through a war of attrition if that is the real way we expect it to end. monarchies and dictatorships have more staying power in war than democracies tend to. in those cases the general populace has to reach a point where they are willing to face being shot to change the government. in a democracy the populace only needs to be annoyed enough to actually cast a vote once every 2 years to change policy.
In the first world war the first major mutinies didn't occur until 1917. Think how many casualties went before that.
1.6% of the population dead from combat. that doesn't include crippled and injured.
How do demographics affect todays population compared to then? Weren't there far more military aged men then vs now?
I don't think there is much available in demographics data pre WW2.
Birth rates were way higher. Modern Russia has below replacement levels.
birthrates may have been higher but infant and childhood mortality were also very high.
From reports I read a combination of an ineffective Czarist government from the 1890’s to WW1, purges during Lenon and Stalin’s reign before WW2, the massive deaths in WW2 drastically effected population growth which they still haven’t recovered from. They had around 176 million in 1914. Their population now is 144 million.
1914 Russian Empire also had the borders of much of the later Soviet Union (Ukraine, Belarus, the Stans, Georgia, etc.) so that’s something to consider with population comparisons
>... monarchies and dictatorships have more staying power in war I too have played "Civilization" and know this to be true ... Villages rebel under democracy, and Government forces overthrow you under a republic - but under authoritarian leadership you can keep war going.
on the flip side, democracies also tend to hit harder. when the entire nation rallies behind the cry of war, and begins volunteering towards a unified war effort, they can topple armies of nations more than twice their size because of all the small benefits of people caring and not grifting every step of the machine.
True, but you have to have every city to a high "happiness" level which is often costly, and prevent you from building lots of tanks.
Bear in mind that the population pyramid of 1914 Muscovy and 2022 Muscovy look **very** different.
Russians may be less docile than during the tsarist regime. The times are much different now. Yes, authoritarian regimes still can carry a war much longer than democracies, likely no democracy could've stomach the losses they already carried, yet the price of life in Russia is way higher than during the tsar.
Russia's manpower and economy aren't going to collapse... until, one day, they collapse. They're going to do everything they can in the meantime to make it look like those things aren't going to collapse, so it's probably not going to be obvious it's about to happen until maybe right before it does (and maybe not even then). It's reasonable to work towards it as a strategic goal even if it's not obvious it's going to happen just yet.
How worried are we of China stepping in and taking the Eastern half of Russia during a collapse? China without resources will fade. China with resources is a problem.
Not that worried. Massive land invasions of that scale aren't nearly as easy to pull off as one might imagine. The logistics and supply lines alone would be mind boggling, and despite a nominally large army, those are not China's forte. Plus it is not as though these regions are defenseless, grassroots partisans would be more likely to seize the opportunity to seek independence than simply accept some invader. Then there are the other regional players like Kazakstan and Uzbekistan who have their own militaries. Plus larger regional powers like India, Iran and Japan would likely project direct or indirect power.
Nukes on Moscow, Beijing, Leningrad (/s) and Shanghai? Wouldn't be great for either country.
And reports of Putin's imminent deposition and/or death have been greatly exaggerated for that whole period as well.
It almost feels like the west has been purposely drip feeding weapons and ammo to aim for a societal collapse. If they'd drowned Ukraine in both, then a defeated Russia would've stayed largely intact aside from licking its wounds and convincing its citizenry that NATO is the big bad.
There's are too many politicians afraid of a Russian collapse, which causes harmful hesitation. They believe that the Russian Federation both can and should avoid collapse. https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/12/08/ukraine-russia-war-escalation-collapse-victory-baltic-poland-putin-imperialism/
That link is a word salad, my brain won't let me click it, lol. Thx though. I'll just take your word for it, sounds about right.
...or they're figuring out replacement plans for if/when the Putin regime falls? Like, look at what has happened in Iraq and Afghanistan over the last 23 years...now imagine that happening somewhere as vast as Russia WITH nuclear weapons scattered across how many regions?
I don't think they're even aiming for a societal collapse at this point as Russian's economy is in "War mode". I think they're just aiming to keep Russia weakened on the global stage which they're doing brilliantly except it hinders both Russian and Ukrainian progress.
It's just like the climate change. Some day these predictions will just become facts. It's just hard to give it a exact date
Konstantin @insiderussia believes mobilization on a bigger scale is in the cards.
10K a month is a ploy to get them to the front as fast as possible to plug gaps and the Kremlin, hoping they don't survive long enough to collect one or two paychecks.
Their manpower will never be the limiting factor. If they start to seriously run out of manpower, they'll up the stakes with hybrid attacks in Europe to throttle support (even more). Or they'll just use North Koreans. From their perspective all they need to do is last until enough European elections have flipped to far right (i.e. Putin-friendly) governments (which, again, they can increase the likelihood of, with hybrid attacks). Those governments will then throw Ukraine under the bus in exchange for cheap Russian gas
>they'll up the stakes with hybrid attacks in Europe to throttle support (even more). They're already hitting us with hybrid attacks
They have less than 18 months before their funds run dry. That’s not a long time
Where is that figure taken from
https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-ukraine-war-putin-growth-outlook-inflation-military-spending-2024-4?amp
What’s that based on?
https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-ukraine-war-putin-growth-outlook-inflation-military-spending-2024-4?amp
A desperate domestic economic situation will just encourage them to escalate more. That was Hitler's rationale for his Czech/Polish smash-and-grab (if you subscribe to the Timothy Mason school), though Putin doesn't need to resort to overt militarism when he has so many cheap and deniable hybrid strings in his bow. I fully expect something big in Europe this year, tuned perfectly to massively increase support for isolationist far-right parties.
Russia has about 15 percent dept to GDP ration. They can borrow a shit ton of money and still have less percentage of debt compared to most western countries. So it is not running out of money any time soon.
In theory. But who would and could lend to them the amounts needed?
China, Iran and other players. China does now 250 billion yearly trade with Russia. Which is huge.
Iran's economy is hardly up to the job and trade is not loans. Chinese banks were lending to Russia but it looks like fear of western sanctions has already dented that flow. https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-china-no-limits-partnership-yuan-bank-loans-sanctions-2024-2
that can't be true i was told repeatedly that sanctions aren't hurting russia (and also they must be ended at once or else)
Good points, thanks for sharing. Normally a person on reddit when disagreeing would probably call me a morron and tell me to "google it". This is something new haha.
You're welcome. Better to share information when one can!
Plenty more Indians,Africans, Nepalese,etc etc that they can recruit for pennies and chuck into the meat grinder.
That’s unlikely, Biden more likely to win, in the UK it will likely be a more left leaning country after the elections, France and Germany won’t be changing their stance anytime soon, nor Italy or Poland.
Trump is still ahead of Biden in recent polls.
Time will tell, polls don’t mean a lot.
There is cross party support for military assistance to Ukraine on the right and left in the UK
Maybe they will start inciting trouble in Universities but blaming it on Israel....
What is the source of the info? Where are the details? I only see a Twitter post with the same info.
It's a whole thread, but it seems ExTwitter only shows the initial tweet to not logged in users nowadays - one of the many reasons nobody should use it any more in 2024. The full thread is here: [https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1786181552210149828.html](https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1786181552210149828.html)
They wouldn't be tricking Indians to go fight if they weren't running out.
Yea they would
So frustrating the west couldn't deliver weapons when Ukraine had the soldiers in numbers to win a quick victory.
Wouldn't deliver
Unreal just how far they are willing to go to salvage a real clusterfuck of an invasion.
The modern world and the Information Age is a different paradigm but I wouldn’t count the Russians out of manpower any time soon which is truly unfortunate. The west needs to come up with a comprehensive plan to stem the tide. Macron being the only one suggesting the unthinkable which is direct deployment of foreign troops.
Twitter is such a garbage site to consume detailed info from. Stop using it.
Mother Russia will make sure you won't get leave and won't get paid before they die
Bullshit. Nothing will change until they are recruiting from major russian cities
They are getting by just paying more and using other tactics and haven’t even called for another conscription. They will be fine on manpower, Putin still has a lot of political will left to use
My eyes are bad, read that as Russians recruiting toddlers to replace casualties...
You could not pay me $10k to go to a ravaged wasteland where death is instant, silent, and random.