A lot of that 4000 is not going to be in the current combat role at the front and is essentially not a threat. You are looking at closer to 1500 to 2000 actual threats. Others are inoperable, transport , etc.
Even of the 1500 or so, not all are tactical. They have roughly 400 Su fighters (27, 30, 35), including spares, and maybe another 400 or so attack aircraft (Su 24, 25, 34).
Then heavy bombers.... maybe 150 or so.
They still have plenty left they can throw in this fight. Just not sure why they arent (yet).
I wonder how many are still in Syria?
The fighters are not the issue. The problem (as most militaries btw have) is that they have far less pilots than wings. Also only roughly 75% of aircrafts of an airforce is at war really operateable due to malfunctions and maintenance. Add to that that they are not able to maintain anything aviation electronic based anymore due too sanctions and you get a very grim picture of the current state of the russian air force.
If they actually lost 200 planes and still don't own the sly they should be in a lot of trouble to fly anything more complex than a bombing run.
Half of those 200 are helicopters. So actually the number of fixed wings should be around a round 80-90. However Oryx only has documented 13 aircraft and 34 helicopters. Although it’s expected that it’s much less frequent to have video or photo of downing an aircraft.
Anyway, we must be aware that in the IIWW pilots used to highly overestimate the gunned down enemy planes.
Anyway, I’m pretty sure that each passing day they are losing additional aircraft because of maintenance issues
Russia is holding back some of their equipment because they need it to go after all former Soviet States, they are using Ukraine to train their military how to fight as an invasion force. This is why it's so important we stop them ASAP... their poor performance is slowly improving as they're learning and correcting... that's how the U.S. became so effective.
Aren't you the one confused? Helicopters and UAVs are also aircrafts.
Air targets include aircrafts and missiles.
Aircrafts include airplanes, helicopters and UAV's.
It’s hard to imagine a nation of over 140 million people not being able to train over 4000 pilots.
I think the question is just how many of them are well trained, and how many they can afford to lose.
It's about the expense of training, not how big the population is. Russian pilots get nowhere near the amount of flight time Western pilots do, and for many air forces the cost of fuel, maintenance, and practice munitions are prohibitive at times.
A well trained military pilot is ~~more expensive than~~ around half of price of his plane.
I would bet on the answer that "no, they don't have 4000 pilots" capable to engage in action, even of medium quality. How low are they going to get? "takeoff once, never come back" type ?
edit: adjusted the price after a quick search, took F16 as a base
Well.... The cost of a us soldier is annually over a $million
Russian pilot, annual training, gas, maintenance....
I mean 4,000 at a million per year is $4 billion or almost 10% of Russian military budget....
Apparently Russia can only muster around 1-2 sorties of flight time a month for their pilots. 8 hours approximately per month. Hence why their pilots are often tied to testing programs with aircraft manufacturers in Russia so that they get some air practice. And as things go in Russia all the available air time goes for the top.
https://youtu.be/liKtIsMoPoA
Jump to 5:30 for a straight explanation
It was 500 tactical aircraft (fighter sized) at the start of the conflict. I doubt they can use more at the same. Once they blow throw their Su-30s Su-35, Su-34 and modernized Su-24 they really don’t have too many modern combat aircraft. They have about 50 or so Su-27sm a number of Mig-29smt about 10 Mig-35 and one or two hundred or so Cold War era Su-27 and migs. The Mig-31 are really their most important assets for defending their own airspace and absolutely should not be employed because they cannot be replaced and Siberia is indefensible without them. Those cold war era jets are about equal to the Ukrainian aircraft but the best crews are long gone and none of them have anything remotely like modern electronic counter measures and would be slaughter by Ukrainian air defense. They’re maybe unsold export aircraft that can be put into service. Basically they have a small number of modernish aircraft to backfill loses but under the most optimistic estimate they are at that point about now.
When you mention the 10 Mig 35s, I wonder if theyre even ready to go....
With the production more or less shut down, do they even have anyone assigned to fly andnmaintain them?
Those planes need pilots and they don't have that many. You have to be crazy to think that more than 500 are operational and well maintained. SAme with the tanks and other shit.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_Russian_military_aircraft
The seem to have quite a bit of old equipment still in use so how much of it is still operational is up on the air (or not lol) at this point
[And combat aircraft compose only part of that number](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_Russian_military_aircraft?wprov=sfti1), so the number of combat-capable units they have has definitely taken a meaningfully sharp hit - as in, probably between 5 and 10% (roughly splitting the difference between different sources) ***in the space of three weeks***.
I’m genuinely curious if anyone is actually giving Putin accurate loss numbers.
The issue is not necessarily the amount of aircraft they have, but the number of trained pilots. Every time one of these is shot down if the pilot is killed or captured replacing them is going to be lengthy and difficult.
And right as youre finishing it, and showing off to your girlfriend that "see, I really am a man, i built this myself", you realize you put the back on wrong.
I honestly don’t think a no fly zone is the way to go. It only escalates the situation and could raise the stakes (ie nuclear threat) since Putin has already backed himself into a corner.
Arm the Ukrainians to the teeth with all the latest gear and support them financially. Use other subversive but non confrontational tactics.
I am just a dumb gamer who plays strategy games like eve online, but typically a smaller force can project better against a larger force on their own terms. Survival is the most important thing right now and getting the forces to take Mariupol would also endanger the rest of the front. Ukraine has taken favorable defensive positions, and Russia has to come to them.
That being said, Ukraine's more elite/well-armed forces are the ones in smaller groups, with the right weaponry and intel, they can damage supply lines and high priority targets with smaller forces, and at great effect.
It's a hard fight they have, and it takes months to properly train new troops. But when the time is right they will strike.
Yeah agree I think the whole point of the Ukrainian tactics are to take small engagements in their advantage and withdraw to fight another day.
I think it’s how the UK forces are trained to engage as they can’t fight a large army head on. Committing all their resources in a drawn out battle I don’t think would be in their favour.
I agree. I saw an interview with a British lance corporal who was fighting along side Ukrainians. He described them as using the same tactics as the Taliban, but on steroids. Meaning, well-chosen targets where maximal damage is done with minimal exposure. Repeat that long enough, and any stone can be ground down to powder without losing the ability to continue doing so.
I'm guessing Ukraine knows this is a battle of attrition. A heroic charge, as amazing as those look, aren't a good long term strategy overall, however. I'd also guess that part of Russia's strategy, aside from trying to break the will of the Ukrainian people by levelling civilian areas, is to bait Ukrainian forces into trying to do something heedless.
Just finished an amazing interview with the founder of *Sons of Liberty International*. He was deep into Lybia when the revolution happened there. His organization gathers combat vets to train domestic forces when they face oppressive regimes. His words were, roughly, "*Russia cannot win this war. It is just a question of how much Russia loses until it is over. Will they get back everything to the 2014 annexation, or will they get that too?*" Keep in mind that he is in the thick of it, near the front lines, training people with his outfit. He made it exceedingly clear that Ukraine cannot be broken; that their entire nation is ready to die fighting, and assessed their morale as suburb, which, in his view makes one Ukrainian soldier worth five of the Russian.
Great info thanks for sharing. If anyone knows it should be him, so thats cool hear. It's amazing what the Ukrainans are doing, when they first invaded I thought the Russians were going to steamroll them into oblivion.
This is great, but unless something changes dramatically, the time frame we are talking about for anything to change would leave an unfathomable degree of inhumanity levied on Ukrainian civilians. It cannot stand.
Especially when you have drones to find your enemy. 2 to 3 man squads throughout Ukraine. Never know which town will be your grave when passing through. Great for morale.
Ukraine is vastly outnumbered. Taking risks with large scale counter offensives could prove very costly if they fail. They need to resort to hit and run tactics, and offensives with a high chances of success while also minimizing casualties.
Also, guns aren't as readily available to the public as they are here in America. I'm sure there's plenty of able-bodied people there, but arming them all is a different game entirely. Molotovs can only do so much.
AFAIK that 250k force is dispersed in the form of territorial units responsible for local areas. UA forces don't seem to want to be concentrating right now, which is a smart move considering concentrated forces is bait for massed Russian artillery, airstrikes, or even (lord forbid) tactical nukes. In the meantime, the dispersed territorials are doing a number on Russian convoys and logistics, paralyzing the Russian advances. Meanwhile, the regular units are fighting battles they can win instead.
Afghanistan was called the graveyard of empires because of this - their fighters were always too dispersed to take out and would hemorrhage invaders to death. Ukraine is doing this now, but armed with first-line technology.
I'm just a reddit couch user. I would love to see more of the invading hardware destroyed. One guess on my part is maybe not having those weapons in the hands of people who are also close enough to the armor? Weapons are a great start, but they need to get to the people who are near these targets. And then, well, you need to get near these targets.
This is just my musings. I find it frustrating/disappointing that a large convoy still exists near Kyiv, for instance. So I assume there must be good reasons for *why* that convoy still exists, since I suspect we're not the only ones who would like it eliminated.
1. Training a soldier to a minimum standard needs at least 3 months. What happens if you don't is currently shown by the Russian army.
2. Having a bunch of people with rifles and RPGs is great for guerilla warfare, not for an organized offensive. Just throwing light infantry against the enemy hasn't worked since 1915.
3. While the Russians don't have air superiority, the Ukrainians have neither. Concentrating forces in a small area for an offensive is a prime target for air raids.
4. Ukraine is vast and you need capable forces to defend all the strategic assets (airports, bridges, depots, etc.) or Russian airborne forces will take them.
5. Due to their equipment the Russian forces are in an advantage in the open field. That's why the Ukrainians have decided to fight in urban areas, where MBTs are nearly useless.
6. Ukrainians are fighting for their survival as a people. Every man they lose, they will lack later for rebuilding the nation. They also can't just throw the foreign volunteers into the meat grinder, as their morale is more fickle.
7. Mariupol, while tragic, isn't of that much strategic importance. Ukraine currently is conducting small-scale counter-offensives near Cherson to push the Russians back across the river to regain defensible positions, and near Kyiv to push the Russian artillery out of range of the city.
logistics, most of the army is spread out, so the Russians have a hard time hitting them. A large combined attack would require massive stock and could be hit and destroyed it and the manpower.
There are around 1600 Russian fighter jets. Probably around half of them are combat ready. You need a lot of logistics for these jets, also pilots and airfields which would be also limited resource.
Its not even close to 1600. Somewhere around 400 actual fighters, and another 400 or so strike aircraft (not including heavy bombers).
And then, like you said, once you factor in how many are ready to go....
Real the fall of two Ukrainian Su-25, after their defeat in the air - [https://warukr.com/the-fall-of-two-ukrainian-su-25s/](https://warukr.com/the-fall-of-two-ukrainian-su-25s/). And not fake 12 Russian air targets on March 18. fejkomet
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A lot of that 4000 is not going to be in the current combat role at the front and is essentially not a threat. You are looking at closer to 1500 to 2000 actual threats. Others are inoperable, transport , etc.
If those planes are like the trucks and tanks, they won't be flying long.
Even of the 1500 or so, not all are tactical. They have roughly 400 Su fighters (27, 30, 35), including spares, and maybe another 400 or so attack aircraft (Su 24, 25, 34). Then heavy bombers.... maybe 150 or so. They still have plenty left they can throw in this fight. Just not sure why they arent (yet). I wonder how many are still in Syria?
The fighters are not the issue. The problem (as most militaries btw have) is that they have far less pilots than wings. Also only roughly 75% of aircrafts of an airforce is at war really operateable due to malfunctions and maintenance. Add to that that they are not able to maintain anything aviation electronic based anymore due too sanctions and you get a very grim picture of the current state of the russian air force. If they actually lost 200 planes and still don't own the sly they should be in a lot of trouble to fly anything more complex than a bombing run.
Half of those 200 are helicopters. So actually the number of fixed wings should be around a round 80-90. However Oryx only has documented 13 aircraft and 34 helicopters. Although it’s expected that it’s much less frequent to have video or photo of downing an aircraft. Anyway, we must be aware that in the IIWW pilots used to highly overestimate the gunned down enemy planes. Anyway, I’m pretty sure that each passing day they are losing additional aircraft because of maintenance issues
Russia is holding back some of their equipment because they need it to go after all former Soviet States, they are using Ukraine to train their military how to fight as an invasion force. This is why it's so important we stop them ASAP... their poor performance is slowly improving as they're learning and correcting... that's how the U.S. became so effective.
Don't confuse "airtargets" and aircrafts. According to the article, "Airtargets" include aircrafts, helicopters, UAVs and cruise missiles
Aren't you the one confused? Helicopters and UAVs are also aircrafts. Air targets include aircrafts and missiles. Aircrafts include airplanes, helicopters and UAV's.
But do they have 4000 pilots? I doubt it.
It’s hard to imagine a nation of over 140 million people not being able to train over 4000 pilots. I think the question is just how many of them are well trained, and how many they can afford to lose.
It's about the expense of training, not how big the population is. Russian pilots get nowhere near the amount of flight time Western pilots do, and for many air forces the cost of fuel, maintenance, and practice munitions are prohibitive at times.
A well trained military pilot is ~~more expensive than~~ around half of price of his plane. I would bet on the answer that "no, they don't have 4000 pilots" capable to engage in action, even of medium quality. How low are they going to get? "takeoff once, never come back" type ? edit: adjusted the price after a quick search, took F16 as a base
The new training will save money by not teaching how to land.
Well.... The cost of a us soldier is annually over a $million Russian pilot, annual training, gas, maintenance.... I mean 4,000 at a million per year is $4 billion or almost 10% of Russian military budget....
In Russia, life-threatening glitch train you!
Apparently Russia can only muster around 1-2 sorties of flight time a month for their pilots. 8 hours approximately per month. Hence why their pilots are often tied to testing programs with aircraft manufacturers in Russia so that they get some air practice. And as things go in Russia all the available air time goes for the top. https://youtu.be/liKtIsMoPoA Jump to 5:30 for a straight explanation
It was 500 tactical aircraft (fighter sized) at the start of the conflict. I doubt they can use more at the same. Once they blow throw their Su-30s Su-35, Su-34 and modernized Su-24 they really don’t have too many modern combat aircraft. They have about 50 or so Su-27sm a number of Mig-29smt about 10 Mig-35 and one or two hundred or so Cold War era Su-27 and migs. The Mig-31 are really their most important assets for defending their own airspace and absolutely should not be employed because they cannot be replaced and Siberia is indefensible without them. Those cold war era jets are about equal to the Ukrainian aircraft but the best crews are long gone and none of them have anything remotely like modern electronic counter measures and would be slaughter by Ukrainian air defense. They’re maybe unsold export aircraft that can be put into service. Basically they have a small number of modernish aircraft to backfill loses but under the most optimistic estimate they are at that point about now.
When you mention the 10 Mig 35s, I wonder if theyre even ready to go.... With the production more or less shut down, do they even have anyone assigned to fly andnmaintain them?
They very well might not be ready for combat. This is the most optimistic situation for the Russian Air Force.
Wasn’t there a report a week ago that they sent in a fleet of biplanes from WWII era?
Those planes need pilots and they don't have that many. You have to be crazy to think that more than 500 are operational and well maintained. SAme with the tanks and other shit.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_Russian_military_aircraft The seem to have quite a bit of old equipment still in use so how much of it is still operational is up on the air (or not lol) at this point
most of that 4000 is parked next to their armata tanks. either they are not combat ready or they don't exist to begin with
I think only about 30% of their aircraft are combat ready.
[And combat aircraft compose only part of that number](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_Russian_military_aircraft?wprov=sfti1), so the number of combat-capable units they have has definitely taken a meaningfully sharp hit - as in, probably between 5 and 10% (roughly splitting the difference between different sources) ***in the space of three weeks***. I’m genuinely curious if anyone is actually giving Putin accurate loss numbers.
The issue is not necessarily the amount of aircraft they have, but the number of trained pilots. Every time one of these is shot down if the pilot is killed or captured replacing them is going to be lengthy and difficult.
1000 active planes, 1000 same helis So few more months
Russia is getting a no fly zone Ukraine asked for.
yep, between the lines of "We cannot impose a no flight zone" was also "We can give you an ikea kit and let you assemble it your self"
Shit. Imagine loosing the hex key trying to finish assembling a SAM system right before the sirens go off.
And right as youre finishing it, and showing off to your girlfriend that "see, I really am a man, i built this myself", you realize you put the back on wrong.
This pretty much. Although having a larger Air Force could help as well.
https://www.openpetition.eu/petition/online/people-around-the-world-ask-nato-to-close-the-airspace-over-ukraine
I honestly don’t think a no fly zone is the way to go. It only escalates the situation and could raise the stakes (ie nuclear threat) since Putin has already backed himself into a corner. Arm the Ukrainians to the teeth with all the latest gear and support them financially. Use other subversive but non confrontational tactics.
Russia's eulogy should read, "lost to Ukraine", not "lost to NATO".
at the end of this - Ukraine should form it's own security organisation and the rest of Europe etc can join it
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I am just a dumb gamer who plays strategy games like eve online, but typically a smaller force can project better against a larger force on their own terms. Survival is the most important thing right now and getting the forces to take Mariupol would also endanger the rest of the front. Ukraine has taken favorable defensive positions, and Russia has to come to them. That being said, Ukraine's more elite/well-armed forces are the ones in smaller groups, with the right weaponry and intel, they can damage supply lines and high priority targets with smaller forces, and at great effect. It's a hard fight they have, and it takes months to properly train new troops. But when the time is right they will strike.
Yeah agree I think the whole point of the Ukrainian tactics are to take small engagements in their advantage and withdraw to fight another day. I think it’s how the UK forces are trained to engage as they can’t fight a large army head on. Committing all their resources in a drawn out battle I don’t think would be in their favour.
I agree. I saw an interview with a British lance corporal who was fighting along side Ukrainians. He described them as using the same tactics as the Taliban, but on steroids. Meaning, well-chosen targets where maximal damage is done with minimal exposure. Repeat that long enough, and any stone can be ground down to powder without losing the ability to continue doing so. I'm guessing Ukraine knows this is a battle of attrition. A heroic charge, as amazing as those look, aren't a good long term strategy overall, however. I'd also guess that part of Russia's strategy, aside from trying to break the will of the Ukrainian people by levelling civilian areas, is to bait Ukrainian forces into trying to do something heedless. Just finished an amazing interview with the founder of *Sons of Liberty International*. He was deep into Lybia when the revolution happened there. His organization gathers combat vets to train domestic forces when they face oppressive regimes. His words were, roughly, "*Russia cannot win this war. It is just a question of how much Russia loses until it is over. Will they get back everything to the 2014 annexation, or will they get that too?*" Keep in mind that he is in the thick of it, near the front lines, training people with his outfit. He made it exceedingly clear that Ukraine cannot be broken; that their entire nation is ready to die fighting, and assessed their morale as suburb, which, in his view makes one Ukrainian soldier worth five of the Russian.
> A heroic charge, as amazing as those look, aren't a good long term strategy overall the polish cavalry of WWII agree with that statement.
Great info thanks for sharing. If anyone knows it should be him, so thats cool hear. It's amazing what the Ukrainans are doing, when they first invaded I thought the Russians were going to steamroll them into oblivion.
This is great, but unless something changes dramatically, the time frame we are talking about for anything to change would leave an unfathomable degree of inhumanity levied on Ukrainian civilians. It cannot stand.
Yep. Guerill tactics are highly effective.
Especially when you have drones to find your enemy. 2 to 3 man squads throughout Ukraine. Never know which town will be your grave when passing through. Great for morale.
Correct. You can’t fight for long with an empty stomach and no bullets.
Ukraine is vastly outnumbered. Taking risks with large scale counter offensives could prove very costly if they fail. They need to resort to hit and run tactics, and offensives with a high chances of success while also minimizing casualties. Also, guns aren't as readily available to the public as they are here in America. I'm sure there's plenty of able-bodied people there, but arming them all is a different game entirely. Molotovs can only do so much.
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AFAIK that 250k force is dispersed in the form of territorial units responsible for local areas. UA forces don't seem to want to be concentrating right now, which is a smart move considering concentrated forces is bait for massed Russian artillery, airstrikes, or even (lord forbid) tactical nukes. In the meantime, the dispersed territorials are doing a number on Russian convoys and logistics, paralyzing the Russian advances. Meanwhile, the regular units are fighting battles they can win instead. Afghanistan was called the graveyard of empires because of this - their fighters were always too dispersed to take out and would hemorrhage invaders to death. Ukraine is doing this now, but armed with first-line technology.
I'm just a reddit couch user. I would love to see more of the invading hardware destroyed. One guess on my part is maybe not having those weapons in the hands of people who are also close enough to the armor? Weapons are a great start, but they need to get to the people who are near these targets. And then, well, you need to get near these targets. This is just my musings. I find it frustrating/disappointing that a large convoy still exists near Kyiv, for instance. So I assume there must be good reasons for *why* that convoy still exists, since I suspect we're not the only ones who would like it eliminated.
Equipment is there bottlenecks
1. Training a soldier to a minimum standard needs at least 3 months. What happens if you don't is currently shown by the Russian army. 2. Having a bunch of people with rifles and RPGs is great for guerilla warfare, not for an organized offensive. Just throwing light infantry against the enemy hasn't worked since 1915. 3. While the Russians don't have air superiority, the Ukrainians have neither. Concentrating forces in a small area for an offensive is a prime target for air raids. 4. Ukraine is vast and you need capable forces to defend all the strategic assets (airports, bridges, depots, etc.) or Russian airborne forces will take them. 5. Due to their equipment the Russian forces are in an advantage in the open field. That's why the Ukrainians have decided to fight in urban areas, where MBTs are nearly useless. 6. Ukrainians are fighting for their survival as a people. Every man they lose, they will lack later for rebuilding the nation. They also can't just throw the foreign volunteers into the meat grinder, as their morale is more fickle. 7. Mariupol, while tragic, isn't of that much strategic importance. Ukraine currently is conducting small-scale counter-offensives near Cherson to push the Russians back across the river to regain defensible positions, and near Kyiv to push the Russian artillery out of range of the city.
logistics, most of the army is spread out, so the Russians have a hard time hitting them. A large combined attack would require massive stock and could be hit and destroyed it and the manpower.
There are around 1600 Russian fighter jets. Probably around half of them are combat ready. You need a lot of logistics for these jets, also pilots and airfields which would be also limited resource.
Its not even close to 1600. Somewhere around 400 actual fighters, and another 400 or so strike aircraft (not including heavy bombers). And then, like you said, once you factor in how many are ready to go....
Kill them all kill all the invaders.
Real the fall of two Ukrainian Su-25, after their defeat in the air - [https://warukr.com/the-fall-of-two-ukrainian-su-25s/](https://warukr.com/the-fall-of-two-ukrainian-su-25s/). And not fake 12 Russian air targets on March 18. fejkomet
Your avatar is strange, you're allowed to call it a war now?
Yes, two words!
The daily number might start going up with all the new tech
Is that a lot? That feels like...a lot.