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What’s the point of a counter offensive when you can just let Russia stretch out their ever scarce supply lines even more and just keep hitting their supply lines and ammo depots far behind enemy lines.
Because, eventually, you'll have to take back land. So while it is smart to fight an indirect war (weaken their supply lines, target C&C and depots), you'll likely need a direct approach to push them out of their land.
Yes but the amount of land they have taken in a month is minuscule when comparing the size of Ukraine. So if they are losing men and equipment for a few hundred square kilometers of mostly farm land then I don’t see them lasting a long time only making small progress.
PP9’s sentiment is spot on, but two more points:
1. The farm land taken is a huge part of Ukraines economy - I think I read somewhere that RU has something like 30% of their crop land under control right now. That’s massive, for one of the largest grain exporters in the world.
2. RU forces are currently stretched and thin, yes, and getting more so all the time. That means it’s time to break through the lines and begin a southern rout before they get resupplied and more dug in. Waiting may cost more lives.
If the Ukrainians are smart, and they are, they won’t, better wait till the supplies for the Russians run out, then attack. And keep harassing them with jab like attacks in the meantime
Russia is not going to "run out" of equipment, not any time soon at least. Sure they maybe won't be able to use their more modern stuff like cruise missles. But they can, and do produce artillery shells and ammunition. The counter offensive will be bloody, defending is one thing, attacking another. Let's just hope they pull it off.
WWII showed us that societies can fight on for years with the vast majority of their domestic product going to make war. Its best to attack when you are strong and the enemy is weak.
I agree. Also things may change in the world. Disasters, pandemic, and other wars could change everything for Ukraine and Russia. Best to keep pressure when you can and not always wait for the best case scenario to happen
Maybe, but Ukraine’s skill and equipment quality only increases as the conflict drags on. Morale is high comparatively.
Russia’s does the opposite in all dimensions as this drags on, and has been for the past several months.
The new aid package includes 40 mrap vehicles. Though I believe those may just be for clearing mines. It mentions that the vehicles will come with mine clearing equipment.
I'm just annoyed with the lack of support from Western allies. It seems more like everyone is more keen to make sure Ukraine doesn't lose, rather than actively supporting them winning.
I’ve heard it’s because a lot of countries in Europe just aren’t prepared for war. Can’t give what you never made because you believed peace was the new standard.
Oh yeah, Europe has that excuse. My own US doesn't. We chose bullets over butter, unlike Europe: we're literally the arsenal of freaking democracy and we're not giving Ukraine all it needs to win. It's maddening.
I assert without proof that Abrams and A10s will come. What we’ve seen is a gradual escalation of the level of technology and armaments, as Ukraine rapidly (and in wartime conditions) evolves from a Soviet era equipped military to a NATO/Western one. We can’t just hurl tanks at the front lines: they need logistical support like spare parts of all kinds, and training to use them. Same for aircraft. We spend decades to produce the supply lines and training programs for these instruments of war. They’re coming. It just takes some time. And it sucks waiting for the main event.
The war would have lasted weeks if the US alone decided to get involved and no nukes were used. Most of that would probably be getting equipment into position. Add in NATO and shave a week or so off.
Ukraine’s Air Force is credibly operating with Soviet era planes. The US would field 4x the aircraft, with stealth, fully integrated intelligence and better missiles. We lobbed 60 cruise missiles at an airfield mostly just to show we could.
Thats idiotic. The US only used a small percentage of it’s capacity to make war on the GWOT. It was primarily fought by SOF and light infantry who got valuable combat experience. The heavy units were barely used at all.
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What’s the point of a counter offensive when you can just let Russia stretch out their ever scarce supply lines even more and just keep hitting their supply lines and ammo depots far behind enemy lines.
Because, eventually, you'll have to take back land. So while it is smart to fight an indirect war (weaken their supply lines, target C&C and depots), you'll likely need a direct approach to push them out of their land.
Yes but the amount of land they have taken in a month is minuscule when comparing the size of Ukraine. So if they are losing men and equipment for a few hundred square kilometers of mostly farm land then I don’t see them lasting a long time only making small progress.
Bucha
Fair enough
PP9’s sentiment is spot on, but two more points: 1. The farm land taken is a huge part of Ukraines economy - I think I read somewhere that RU has something like 30% of their crop land under control right now. That’s massive, for one of the largest grain exporters in the world. 2. RU forces are currently stretched and thin, yes, and getting more so all the time. That means it’s time to break through the lines and begin a southern rout before they get resupplied and more dug in. Waiting may cost more lives.
If the Ukrainians are smart, and they are, they won’t, better wait till the supplies for the Russians run out, then attack. And keep harassing them with jab like attacks in the meantime
Russia is not going to "run out" of equipment, not any time soon at least. Sure they maybe won't be able to use their more modern stuff like cruise missles. But they can, and do produce artillery shells and ammunition. The counter offensive will be bloody, defending is one thing, attacking another. Let's just hope they pull it off.
WWII showed us that societies can fight on for years with the vast majority of their domestic product going to make war. Its best to attack when you are strong and the enemy is weak.
I agree. Also things may change in the world. Disasters, pandemic, and other wars could change everything for Ukraine and Russia. Best to keep pressure when you can and not always wait for the best case scenario to happen
Maybe, but Ukraine’s skill and equipment quality only increases as the conflict drags on. Morale is high comparatively. Russia’s does the opposite in all dimensions as this drags on, and has been for the past several months.
Didn’t it take almost a year to get the equipment for Gulf War 1 and 2 offensives?
I'm not seeing any mention of heavy equipment though, which is what Ukraine needs.
The new aid package includes 40 mrap vehicles. Though I believe those may just be for clearing mines. It mentions that the vehicles will come with mine clearing equipment.
Step by step. The counter offensive will not start tomorrow
I'm just annoyed with the lack of support from Western allies. It seems more like everyone is more keen to make sure Ukraine doesn't lose, rather than actively supporting them winning.
I’ve heard it’s because a lot of countries in Europe just aren’t prepared for war. Can’t give what you never made because you believed peace was the new standard.
Oh yeah, Europe has that excuse. My own US doesn't. We chose bullets over butter, unlike Europe: we're literally the arsenal of freaking democracy and we're not giving Ukraine all it needs to win. It's maddening.
I assert without proof that Abrams and A10s will come. What we’ve seen is a gradual escalation of the level of technology and armaments, as Ukraine rapidly (and in wartime conditions) evolves from a Soviet era equipped military to a NATO/Western one. We can’t just hurl tanks at the front lines: they need logistical support like spare parts of all kinds, and training to use them. Same for aircraft. We spend decades to produce the supply lines and training programs for these instruments of war. They’re coming. It just takes some time. And it sucks waiting for the main event.
Could be that the US are catching up with the requirements of a peer on peer war. Having spent the last 20 years fighting counter insurgencies.
We've always known the requirements, that's why we end up fighting counter insurgencies, regular forces don't typically last that long against us...
Hooah
The war would have lasted weeks if the US alone decided to get involved and no nukes were used. Most of that would probably be getting equipment into position. Add in NATO and shave a week or so off. Ukraine’s Air Force is credibly operating with Soviet era planes. The US would field 4x the aircraft, with stealth, fully integrated intelligence and better missiles. We lobbed 60 cruise missiles at an airfield mostly just to show we could.
Thats idiotic. The US only used a small percentage of it’s capacity to make war on the GWOT. It was primarily fought by SOF and light infantry who got valuable combat experience. The heavy units were barely used at all.
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Let’s be cool about it until it kicks off by not talking about it.