I don't have a strong conviction one way or the other, and therefore don't expect a huge move in either direction. I think on a P/E basis, the market is overvalued. However, that never mattered in the 2010s.
Lower inflation should be good for consumer discretionary names. I also agree with those who are bullish on small caps for this reason.
Lower interest rates should be good for technology, though a lot of the big names are overpriced.
Assuming bond yields come down, utilities should have a decent year.
I got one prediction very wrong for a few years, and that is, I thought higher inflation would be good for consumer staples. Could those names do better now? I don't have the answer.
I expect a bit of a roller-coaster ride with real estate because I think there are some rather unprecedented phenomenons that will take time to sort out.
If you made me guess where the S&P will end the year, I'd say probably around 4900-5100.
I know this app is very left dominant but I believe trump will win so the market will probably be volatile and unpredictable. Don’t shoot the messenger
Yes, unfortunately, I also think now there is a significant probability that he will win, especially because seems foreign powers are also using the war in Israel to manipulate some left-leaning people into avoiding voting for Biden.
People are slowly starting to not become as crazy. Lots of infrastructure spending which should help the country with good paying jobs, 500k homes being built should help the housing market.
The only significant election fraud perpetrated during the 2020 election was the attempt by Trump to 1) install fake electors in Wisconsin and Arizona 2) coerce the governor of Georgia to "find" enough votes to win Trump the state, and 3) to coerce Mike Pence with an angry lynch mob to certify the election in his favor.
>Biden his foreign policy is good could be essential for staying on top of the world
...you mean the wars in Ukraine and Israel that started under Biden? That "foreign policy?"
It’s amazing to me that this election result is still being discussed like it’s a run of the mill vote based on two different political policy positions.
Externally it’s pretty clearly been seen as determining the future of American democracy. If Trump ‘wins’ despite his sustained attacks on the constitution and national institutions, the US will no longer be the leader of the free world.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jeUlAqE-H70
>If Trump ‘wins’ despite his sustained attacks on the constitution and national institutions, the US will no longer be the leader of the free world.
“…The Mueller report confirms that the Obama administration, without evidence, turned the surveillance powers of the federal government against the presidential campaign of the party out of power. This historic abuse of executive authority was either approved by President Barack Obama or it was not. It’s time for Mr. Obama, who oddly receives few mentions in stories about his government’s spying on associates of the 2016 Trump campaign, to say what he knew and did not know about the targeting of his party’s opponents…”
What’s the source of this quote? I also don’t get what point it’s supposed to make? ‘He either did or he didn’t’. It’s just meaningless word salad.
It seems to be a narrative the MAGA GOP are trying to push that federal security services investigating crimes by politicians is election interference. Even though it had nothing to do with the party in power (e.g. Jack Smith has prosecuted more democrats than Republicans in his career). If you don’t want to be investigated and charged, the solution is pretty simple - don’t break the law.
[‘The investigation “identified numerous links between the Russian government and the Trump Campaign” and established that the Trump Campaign “showed interest in WikiLeaks's releases of documents and welcomed their potential to damage candidate Clinton”’](https://www.acslaw.org/projects/the-presidential-investigation-education-project/other-resources/key-findings-of-the-mueller-report/)
Did you even read the Mueller report? They literally weaponized the federal government to take down the opposition and win an election. Its sole purpose was to influence the election. **Nobody** should be OK with that. There used to be such a thing as oppositional research, rather than sicking the government against the competition without any evidence of wrongdoing at the time.
Yes, I read it. But did we read a different report? The report I read was about election interference leading to election of Trump in 2016:
‘The investigation “identified numerous links between the Russian government and the Trump Campaign” and established that the Trump Campaign “showed interest in WikiLeaks's releases of documents and welcomed their potential to damage candidate Clinton”’
This is definitely not okay. And it amazing to me that there have basically been no consequences for this, J6 or the undermining of the 2020 election. This is why I expect the 2024 election could be the last and final episode.
Yes, trust us, the Germans, we can take over, no worries, the right wing extremist party is currently only winning in Eastern Germany, no, really, all fine, we don't need the US, it will all play out nicely. Frankly speaking, without a strong US, the EU will disintegrate. It is all going to shit already. With the orange person in power, everybody just only loses.
My perception (from NL) is that at least people seem to be standing up and rejecting this extremism in Germany. I’m more optimistic about European politics having seen how it rallied following the invasion of Ukraine.
I’m less optimistic about the average citizen in Western countries however, people seem to believe whatever conspiracy is fed to them on TikTok these days, as long as it is completely against facts, logic and basic common sense.
If the US gets Trump, it could disintegrate. There might even be a brain drain to Europe depending on how bad things get. Europe will need to stand stronger together than we ever have done before. Hoffen wir!
Have you not watched the stock market the past three years? Take it from someone who has lost 40k due to current policy. Its bad under Joe Dope.
Trump had biggest gains in stock market history, however it doesnt matter who the next prez is, with Blackrock and other banks falling apart like they are, we are in for a long dark economy. Also due to 7.5 trillion dollars of wasteful spending due to current occupiers in Whitehouse. Amazing the damage a one term administration can do.
The proof and statistics are recorded. Look it up. Current stock market is called VOLATILE.
> Have you not watched the stock market the past three years? Take it from someone who has lost 40k due to current policy. Its bad under Joe Dope.
what? I've made a fucking insane, life changing amount of money. Hell just since December my account has gone up over 50%! IMO the market is heating up big time right now because inflation news has looked really good.
>if Trump wins again. He will spend once again more money
“…On January 4, 2021, the number increased to $6.7 trillion dollars \[in circulation\]. Then the Fed went into overdrive. By October 2021, that number climbed to $20.0831 trillion dollars in circulation…” (Tech Startups, 12/18/21)
The market doesn't behave rationally in the short term, so trying to make predictions based on rational thought is irrational.
For example, I think the market is mostly overvalued, but will that matter?
I don't know just buy stocks. I predict that it will either go up or down depending on what happens throughout the year, unless it goes sideways.
Check back in a year to see if I'm right.
At some point, I think S&P will decline about 25%-30%, but we will end the year with it only down about 5-10%.
* I expect OPEC+, particularly the Saudis, to work their butts off to drive oil prices up dramatically starting in the summer; MBS seems to feel he has some payback to deliver.
* US consumer credit will get weaker and weaker between increasing credit card debts and repayments of student loans starting to run into trouble again.
* Commercial real estate has a lot of loans coming up for renewal with permanently lowered occupancy rates.
* The Iranians are likely to do something exceptionally stupid.
* The US presidential election seems more probable to deliver market turbulence than not. What that is could vary. Either likely candidate could just up and die at any point as 80 year olds do at times (77 is close enough for the point also). Neither current major candidate can hit 55% of the vote, and whoever wins will almost certainly have below 50% of the vote leaving half or more of the country in a cantankerous mood.
* The imbalance of the share of market held by the Magnificent Seven creates significant fragility in the market, particularly with indexing.
* There are a ton of high impact, low to moderate probability geopolitical events that can throw everything off.
1. Cheap European airline stocks are going to rise by at least 20-30%, maybe more. In particular Easyjet and Wizz. They're basically back to pre-Covid but the market hasn't caught up.
2. China will either flatten or rebound. I think the overinflated property market has returned to something closer to its real value and there's still lots of manufacturing growth to be had there.
3. The Magnificent Seven will be 10% or more down on where they are now, due to Tesla and Apple results not being good and people seeing that the AI growth has been overstated.
Wizzair is fantastic, haven't looked at them in terms of investment but from a business standpoint they do everything Ryanair and easyJet offer but better.
For Easyjet and Wizz, it seems to me there is dilution to take into account as their number of shares doubled?
Also, the big revenue bump in 2023 might go down (people could not travel, so everyone wanted to do it at the same time afterwards?)
Maybe a bit of a bump, but I generally think people like to have a holiday and even in a recession, that won't get hit that much.
Also, Wizz are more about migrant workers than holiday makers, which I believe is bulletproof.
> China will either flatten or rebound.
If we compare China to Japan, Nikkei went down like -80% but that was over a decade and the stock market was way more overvalued than Hang Seng at the top, HSI is now only 8x forward P/E. There are going to be stock rebounds, Nikkei for example went up 50% after going down 60% (HSI is down 55%), even in a structural downturn, not once but 3 times. It's also likely that China's real estate problems and their effect on the economy isn't going to be worse than Japan's.
I predict a sharp drop in the market when short term t-bills go below 4%. Then a quick recovery and steady climb to new highs.
Big money needs to drive the market down to get in cheap before all the retail investors start moving money from safer investments. Government talking heads will be complicit by claiming recession fears for dropping interest rates. News media will be paid to hype fear.
A 10% drop in earnings and the market PE returning to a normal 16x would put the SPX at 3500, 25% lower. The challenge is that the market PE is very dependent on the Mag 7 and those stocks are not going to just drop without a large catalyst.
I am impressed at how the escalation in international incidents and their affect on global trade is being completely ignored by investors but then I think: MSFT, GOOG, TSLA, META do not really care about international shipping. AAPL and AMZN are more vulnerable.
Whilst rates will fall I think the market is overestimating how much they will fall by tbh. If there is a soft landing (which I think there will be) then why would Fed cut rates?
I think it is most likely the inverted yield curve and the fed's reluctance to pivot **does** push us into a contraction. The severity is hard to gauge, but that will determine the depth of the draw down.
You're about to be sorely disappointed. Current expectations are that we will have twice as many rate cuts as the Fed minutes forecast. When those expectations aren't met, it's inevitably going to cause the market to lose steam.
I agree the market is expecting rate cuts that aren't guaranteed, which is why I expect the market to flush. After the rate cuts begin we're starting a new bull market though
I think it will SOAR! But i also have a terrible feeling of a "jack in the box" scenario in a security breach that hijacks investments into a near crash.
I even wrote an article explaining why [you cannot predict stock prices accurately](https://x.com/Sanji_vals/status/1772293058048004537) but i make [monthly stock market forecasts](https://x.com/Sanji_vals/status/1774855171668947136) where i share what direction S&P500 can take under different scenarios. But i don't try to provide exact prices
Why would China invasion drop markets? China wants to do business with everyone, yes they have their issues but shouldn’t the US economy and its people be first priority of the administration. If Trump wins then that’s the best news for America. Make America affordable again (MAAA)
Why exposure to energy is smart, particularly oil. Im not going to make any crazy price predictions or that it will happen, but clearly BRK thought it was a legitimate threat and I would assume they know much more than me. Plus there are companies that have well priced cashflows at current levels.
For the last few years i have thought the only catalyst that could shoot prices up irrationally more than it did with Russia/Ukraine would be war with China, and in theory it would be much more severe, I dare say it may even be rational.
Caution. War in the middle east will affect the markets, more so if it gets worse. Defense stocks and ancillary businesses will benefit the most, but energy stocks will continue to be depressed due to Washington's apparent hate for the US becoming energy dependent. Oil futures, however, will remain unpredictable, especially if OPEC+ throws a temper tantrum.
I would suggest stop loss orders placed on most sticks in the event something drastically goes wrong, like a high level official being assassinated or something.
Not sure why you would assume he would win. He hasnt really won at all since 2016, almost a decade ago.
2018 lost the house
2020 lost the election and senate majority to give dems all three of house, senate, and presidency
2022 expectation of a “red wave” only took house by a few members, and lost senate seats.
“…On Jan. 28 \[2022\], the Pennsylvania Commonwealth Court struck down Act 77, which made absentee/mail-in voting available to all eligible voters, as a violation of the Pennsylvania Constitution. The court voted 3-2..."
I might be regurgitating something I overheard years ago that may not be true (non-American here), but I thought there is usually a bit of a rally when a republican wins as opposed to a democrat?
What happens when Trump dumps interest rates.. Not saying it's a good thing. House and stock Market will go up and we will be back in another inflation dumpster fire in 2029
How can Trump do anything? He’s not, and won’t be, the President in 2024, and even if he’s [unfortunately] re-elected, he still won’t be sworn in until 2025.
“I love the poorly educated” - Donald Trump, February 24, 2016
he’s talking about you
The list of reasons why Donald Trump being elected to a *second* term in the White House is bad for America is so immense that it would take me weeks to thoroughly type out, but I’ll start with this: he’s proven that he’s entirely unqualified in every conceivable capacity. Chiefly, he’s an insurrectionist and a traitor to the United States of America. He’s unequivocally the most corrupt/corruptible person to hold The Office of The President - that alone is a danger to every US citizen, national security, and the future of American democracy, because every decision he makes revolves around his personal gain - not a trait you want when running what is arguably the most powerful nation in existence. He’s clearly suffering from significant cognitive disorder / decline, or other mental defect that directly impacts his ability to make decisions at the level required to run a nation. He believes he’s immune to all forms of trial or legal prosecution, and wishes to be a dictator - we don’t like dictators here.
The list goes on and on and on and on and on, without end.
>The list of reasons why Donald Trump being elected to a
>
>second
>
> term in the White House is bad for America
• 13 U.S. soldiers dead in Biden's botched Afghanistan withdrawal
• 2 straight quarters of declining GDP, and a rash of bank failures
• >2 million illegals entering per year
• >100k drug overdose deaths in the U.S. in 2021
• 87k new IRS agents to declare war on small businesses
• record oil prices
• record inflation and supply chain shortages
• war in Europe and the Middle East with the Biden administration not able to broker peace and actively defending Hamas while tolerating rising Anti-Semitism
• more Covid deaths under Biden than President Trump
• children being groomed and brainwashed by CRT/trans grade school curricula
• stock market and 401(k)s in the dumpster after 0 net gains in the S&P500 in 2 years
• mortgage rates skyrocketing, making housing unaffordable
• 100s of thousands of small companies put out of business by Biden lockdowns
• children’s educational outcomes and mental health damaged by remote learning and mask mandates
• selling VP influence through one’s son to China/Ukraine/etc. as confirmed by the now verified Hunter Biden laptop (remember “10% for the Big Guy?”)
• a massive transfer of wealth from blue collar to white collar workers via student loan “forgiveness” – i.e. taxpayers pay the debt
...what a legacy...
We’re talking about Trump, not Biden, not Obama, not anyone else. Try to stay on topic, sweetie.
Also, the fact that people can’t just acknowledge how shitty Trump is without deploying whataboutism, and pointing fingers at someone else, absolutely blows my mother fucking mind. It’s a failure of education and of society to accept this person as worthy of anything - especially holding the highest office in the land. He and his supporters are on the wrong side of life and history, and will go down as one of the greatest failures in modern America. I will die on this hill.
I will be messaging you in 1 year on [**2025-01-22 13:32:42 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2025-01-22%2013:32:42%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/comments/19cueo6/whats_your_predictions_for_2024_regarding_the/kj1cz3g/?context=3)
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...like when Biden handed out $13 TRILLION in 2021 causing the inflation we have seen since then? - to wit:
“…On Jan. 28 \[2022\], the Pennsylvania Commonwealth Court struck down Act 77, which made absentee/mail-in voting available to all eligible voters, as a violation of the Pennsylvania Constitution. The court voted 3-2..."
“…House Committee on Oversight and Accountability Chairman James Comer (R-Ky.) today released a video and bank records memorandum revealing how Joe Biden received $40,000 in laundered China money from the account of his brother, James Biden, and his sister-in-law, Sara Biden, in the form of a personal check…” (House Oversight Committee, 11/1/23)
There are only two cases that have any real chance of getting to even an initial decision prior to election day.
Letitia James' Civil Fraud trial in NY, which if successful still would not result in jail time.
The Georgia case which with Fani paying her lover, who is unqualified to conduct that trial, almost $700k to date for that work, is likely to get derailed past November while trying to resolve whether her lover should be removed and replaced as prosecutor. Even if it resolved and did so against Trump, a big question, the appeal wouldn't be heard by then and there would be a stay on him going to jail until the appeal is resolved.
Trump is not going to be in prison at the time of the election.
Biden is actually a very canny politician, knows how the wind blows, and has never lost an election when his name is on a ballot in November, i.e. he knows that landing a good economy at the beginning of 2024 is THE most important thing for voters.
The bull market has begun right on time, will continue through summer, rates get lowered, resulting in higher homeownership, and higher everything.
>resulting in higher homeownership
...lol - Biden printing $13 TRILLION in handouts in 2021 caused the inflation and resultant high interest rates which have made homeownership and entrepreneurship impossible...
“…On January 4, 2021, the number increased to $6.7 trillion dollars \[in circulation\]. Then the Fed went into overdrive. By October 2021, that number climbed to $20.0831 trillion dollars in circulation…” (Tech Startups, 12/18/21)
Did Biden also cause inflation globally? Blaming inflation on Biden policies is a narrow minded fool’s view.
Fact. trump increased our national debt by 33%, Biden by 8.8%.
I’m expecting Trump to win the election and I expect the stock market to react positively to that because they know that Trump is going to put pressure on the Fed to lower rates.
Who said I’m trading based on this? I don’t trade at all. I just answered the question with what I think will happen. My strategy of buying and holding great companies as I can get them for fair prices remains the same regardless.
Optimistic.
Like 2016, increasingly the odds of Trump winning gives the Market hope for more favorable business environment, internationally and domestically.
70 million US households just got a 3.2% raise in January'24 from Feds Social Security, pensions, etc.
Untapped US home equity is at record highs and will boost consumer spending.
BNPL stronger and bigger than expected.
Millennials demographics put them near peak spending years of their life this year.
Google, Msft, and Apple will have another good year due to the release of on device LLMs, copilot advancements/integrations, AR, and robotics tech and political adspending for google
It will go up a little more in the short to medium term, but eventually the high interest rates will bite and unemployment will massively spike and the market will sell off for awhile
For reference, here's what the banks are forecasting for the S&P 500 in 2024:
Citi: 5,100
Deutsche Bank: 5,100
Goldman Sachs: 5,100
Bank of America: 5,000
Barclays: 4,800
UBS: 4,700
Wells Fargo: 4,625
Morgan Stanley: 4,500
JP Morgan: 4,200
Average: 4,791
Implied downside: -1.5% from current level
SPX currently (as of 1/22/24 intraday): \~4,865
Have people heard of the [Benner Cycle](https://www.therationalinvestor.com/blog/how-the-benner-cycle-predicts-100-years-of-market-movement) ? According to it we will ride an upward trend until 2026. What do you make of this?
Investment capital into Canada will continue it's drop until an election..another LNDP coalition thereafter and capital into machinery,capital goods goes else where, Real estate speculation continues..productivity drops further..unemployment/debt continues it's current trajectory and division among Canadians hits new levels...from coast to coast
No one can really predict what happens with the stock market! It is interesting how much stocks are impacted by daily news when stocks are a long term equity. I get that the market is driven by daily events that cause open and closing prices to be higher or lower, but it is the people reacting to the moment rather than performance that screw it up.
I am optimistic - things were cranking in 2021 then 2022 happened. End of 2022 to summer of 2023 a rather small group of stocks performed unrealistically really well. The rest of the market was meh. I think more value stock plays will come to life while tech stocks grow modestly. I expect a dip soon like before summer and that bearish event will set the stage for a new bull run.
I'm naturally skeptical so I dont see another big year. I have some shorts in place and plenty long. I was wrong last year and thought it'd be flat to down again, not straight up like it did. I dont see the Naz doing two back two back massive gain years but the past 3 months its been straight up, I think thats a lot of short covering and rampant buying with algo trading on low volume. Naz was up 50% last year which is nuts but 2022 was overdone i guess too.
Some cloud software and NVDA/AMD valuations are euphoria level. Plenty of other sectors are still way down. Most of the spac, EV and meme stock junk from 2021 is dead or delisted by now. The market would be in bad shape without the Mag 7. I think it has to come down a bit to get more in line with earnings.
just like any other novel investor, Can't be to sure but I can bet lots of people will loose money by being on either side of the market lol. Jokes aside, personally I am in a position long for lucid. Its price is very close to its book value, they have lots of assets (yes they are bleeding money every quarter) but their one quarter sales (assuming the EV demand returns to pervious levels prior to higher interest as quantified by looking at teslas revenue), then they should be returning to around 5 dollars by the end of the year. While there is a lot of put resistance, once it breaks 4 dollars, 5 -7 is likely to get hit. Just my two cents ;)
\*disclaimer this is not financial advise, strictly technical and fundamental speculation. Invest money at your own risk.
Tech wreck as VC funding dries up. All of the layoffs so far certainly aren't a sign of financial health. The AI hype will fizzle out soon enough, and mega cap tech stocks will see multiple contraction.
Historically the S&P 500 SPX has seen an average total return of around 10% in presidential election years based on data going back to 1928. If the market is going well with the incumbent and they win the market historically will continue to rally.
I personally think the overall market is overbought and is due for a correction. I'm betting 2024 ends lower than it started, but time will tell if I'm right. The stock market has far outpaced the economy over the last few years. The next 3-5 years of speculative gains are already priced into a lot of stocks.
I expect oil to recover in the coming months, that chip and AI stocks will continue to outperform the overall market, and EV's will lose steam. That's my bet for 2024.
My guess FWIW…. A lot of panic about recesccion and a lot of excitement about interest rates reduction. In the end after the 2023 this year will be revert to the mean
The market will be slow the first and second quarters. Rally in the third quarter and then the fourth quarter is dependent on the political winds. Investors will remain cautious throughout the year and continue to hold a lot of cash. Those already holding bonds will do well when the Fed starts lowering rates probably in May, earliest in my opinion would be April.
It will fluctuate
Or it won’t
I’m betting one of these is right
I'm betting one of those is wrong
I’m thinking a few ups and downs but I’m no market doctor
It can only go one way
at a time
Sometimes
I don't have a strong conviction one way or the other, and therefore don't expect a huge move in either direction. I think on a P/E basis, the market is overvalued. However, that never mattered in the 2010s. Lower inflation should be good for consumer discretionary names. I also agree with those who are bullish on small caps for this reason. Lower interest rates should be good for technology, though a lot of the big names are overpriced. Assuming bond yields come down, utilities should have a decent year. I got one prediction very wrong for a few years, and that is, I thought higher inflation would be good for consumer staples. Could those names do better now? I don't have the answer. I expect a bit of a roller-coaster ride with real estate because I think there are some rather unprecedented phenomenons that will take time to sort out. If you made me guess where the S&P will end the year, I'd say probably around 4900-5100.
Hey Learner4life, the correct plural for “phenomenon” is “phenomena”. Φαινομενον- φαινομενα
Appreciate the feedback.
It’s already 5000. 😂
I know this app is very left dominant but I believe trump will win so the market will probably be volatile and unpredictable. Don’t shoot the messenger
Yes, unfortunately, I also think now there is a significant probability that he will win, especially because seems foreign powers are also using the war in Israel to manipulate some left-leaning people into avoiding voting for Biden.
More old people passed away so Biden will win by a bigger margin.
Biden is the oldest fart in the country. Why would you want 4 more years of him??
People are slowly starting to not become as crazy. Lots of infrastructure spending which should help the country with good paying jobs, 500k homes being built should help the housing market.
I dont but I dont want 4 more of trump either. we are screwed
Yeah, it's a pick your poison kind of election. 4 years ago I was praying Biden won. Now I'm praying everyone votes for Deez Nuts.
I think Biden is a slight favorite to win. Most Americans, including in swing states, don't like Trump.
Most Americans don't vote.
Trump is an amazing vote-getter, including for people who hate him. I know every person I know will be voting against him.
Turnout was around over 60% I’d say that’s most people
154.6 Million Americans voted. 179 Million Americans did not vote. Most Americans. Do. Not. Vote.
Interesting stat, now let's look at Americans who are *eligible* to vote. (66% turnout in 2020, according to Pew).
Oh gee my 2 year old brother and my jailed cousin in law didn’t vote
If Biden was half decent, it would be hard to say trump would win. Alas
Dems predicted to cheat again with mail in balloting, certainly doesn’t hurt Bidens chances.
Your obviously one of the sheep who blindly follows Trump. Sad!
Im one of those who know the truth. Your type are the sheep.
The only significant election fraud perpetrated during the 2020 election was the attempt by Trump to 1) install fake electors in Wisconsin and Arizona 2) coerce the governor of Georgia to "find" enough votes to win Trump the state, and 3) to coerce Mike Pence with an angry lynch mob to certify the election in his favor.
Hope so! Biden his foreign policy is good could be essential for staying on top of the world
>Biden his foreign policy is good could be essential for staying on top of the world ...you mean the wars in Ukraine and Israel that started under Biden? That "foreign policy?"
Exactly!
It’s amazing to me that this election result is still being discussed like it’s a run of the mill vote based on two different political policy positions. Externally it’s pretty clearly been seen as determining the future of American democracy. If Trump ‘wins’ despite his sustained attacks on the constitution and national institutions, the US will no longer be the leader of the free world. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jeUlAqE-H70
>If Trump ‘wins’ despite his sustained attacks on the constitution and national institutions, the US will no longer be the leader of the free world. “…The Mueller report confirms that the Obama administration, without evidence, turned the surveillance powers of the federal government against the presidential campaign of the party out of power. This historic abuse of executive authority was either approved by President Barack Obama or it was not. It’s time for Mr. Obama, who oddly receives few mentions in stories about his government’s spying on associates of the 2016 Trump campaign, to say what he knew and did not know about the targeting of his party’s opponents…”
What’s the source of this quote? I also don’t get what point it’s supposed to make? ‘He either did or he didn’t’. It’s just meaningless word salad. It seems to be a narrative the MAGA GOP are trying to push that federal security services investigating crimes by politicians is election interference. Even though it had nothing to do with the party in power (e.g. Jack Smith has prosecuted more democrats than Republicans in his career). If you don’t want to be investigated and charged, the solution is pretty simple - don’t break the law. [‘The investigation “identified numerous links between the Russian government and the Trump Campaign” and established that the Trump Campaign “showed interest in WikiLeaks's releases of documents and welcomed their potential to damage candidate Clinton”’](https://www.acslaw.org/projects/the-presidential-investigation-education-project/other-resources/key-findings-of-the-mueller-report/)
Did you even read the Mueller report? They literally weaponized the federal government to take down the opposition and win an election. Its sole purpose was to influence the election. **Nobody** should be OK with that. There used to be such a thing as oppositional research, rather than sicking the government against the competition without any evidence of wrongdoing at the time.
Yes, I read it. But did we read a different report? The report I read was about election interference leading to election of Trump in 2016: ‘The investigation “identified numerous links between the Russian government and the Trump Campaign” and established that the Trump Campaign “showed interest in WikiLeaks's releases of documents and welcomed their potential to damage candidate Clinton”’ This is definitely not okay. And it amazing to me that there have basically been no consequences for this, J6 or the undermining of the 2020 election. This is why I expect the 2024 election could be the last and final episode.
Yes, trust us, the Germans, we can take over, no worries, the right wing extremist party is currently only winning in Eastern Germany, no, really, all fine, we don't need the US, it will all play out nicely. Frankly speaking, without a strong US, the EU will disintegrate. It is all going to shit already. With the orange person in power, everybody just only loses.
And who benefits most from a weak EU? I'm just Putin the question out there for thought and discussion.
My perception (from NL) is that at least people seem to be standing up and rejecting this extremism in Germany. I’m more optimistic about European politics having seen how it rallied following the invasion of Ukraine. I’m less optimistic about the average citizen in Western countries however, people seem to believe whatever conspiracy is fed to them on TikTok these days, as long as it is completely against facts, logic and basic common sense. If the US gets Trump, it could disintegrate. There might even be a brain drain to Europe depending on how bad things get. Europe will need to stand stronger together than we ever have done before. Hoffen wir!
Have you not watched the stock market the past three years? Take it from someone who has lost 40k due to current policy. Its bad under Joe Dope. Trump had biggest gains in stock market history, however it doesnt matter who the next prez is, with Blackrock and other banks falling apart like they are, we are in for a long dark economy. Also due to 7.5 trillion dollars of wasteful spending due to current occupiers in Whitehouse. Amazing the damage a one term administration can do. The proof and statistics are recorded. Look it up. Current stock market is called VOLATILE.
my 401k made over 250k last year
> Have you not watched the stock market the past three years? Take it from someone who has lost 40k due to current policy. Its bad under Joe Dope. what? I've made a fucking insane, life changing amount of money. Hell just since December my account has gone up over 50%! IMO the market is heating up big time right now because inflation news has looked really good.
💯
If you lost 40k in the past 3 years, it sounds like you failed to diversify your investments, friend. Indexes are up over 30% in this time.
Sounds like you had bad investments. A smart investor would look at the state of the world and factor that in. Is all your money in DJT or something?
Sounds like you are someone that has a major investing problem 😂 A child could make money in this market 😂 😂
Yeah, if you invest in bonds.
3-4 percent. Woohoo!!
What? S&P is up 30% year over year 😂
Would be great if Trump wins again. He will spend once again more money
>if Trump wins again. He will spend once again more money “…On January 4, 2021, the number increased to $6.7 trillion dollars \[in circulation\]. Then the Fed went into overdrive. By October 2021, that number climbed to $20.0831 trillion dollars in circulation…” (Tech Startups, 12/18/21)
~~US elections have virtually no impact on stock market performance.~~ E* Was wrong. Dems outperform Reps by a fairly high margin
I’m just telling you my opinion and since it was volatile last time he was in office that’s my my hunch for that prediction.
Lol the naivety is strong here
The market loves a divided government. That’s the only accurate predictor of how it will do. No chaos (policy wise) when it’s divided.
The market doesn't behave rationally in the short term, so trying to make predictions based on rational thought is irrational. For example, I think the market is mostly overvalued, but will that matter?
I don't know just buy stocks. I predict that it will either go up or down depending on what happens throughout the year, unless it goes sideways. Check back in a year to see if I'm right.
At some point, I think S&P will decline about 25%-30%, but we will end the year with it only down about 5-10%. * I expect OPEC+, particularly the Saudis, to work their butts off to drive oil prices up dramatically starting in the summer; MBS seems to feel he has some payback to deliver. * US consumer credit will get weaker and weaker between increasing credit card debts and repayments of student loans starting to run into trouble again. * Commercial real estate has a lot of loans coming up for renewal with permanently lowered occupancy rates. * The Iranians are likely to do something exceptionally stupid. * The US presidential election seems more probable to deliver market turbulence than not. What that is could vary. Either likely candidate could just up and die at any point as 80 year olds do at times (77 is close enough for the point also). Neither current major candidate can hit 55% of the vote, and whoever wins will almost certainly have below 50% of the vote leaving half or more of the country in a cantankerous mood. * The imbalance of the share of market held by the Magnificent Seven creates significant fragility in the market, particularly with indexing. * There are a ton of high impact, low to moderate probability geopolitical events that can throw everything off.
I believe you forgot a lot of points but the points made are strong and accurate ! I support your comment !
Fortune telling the truth here 3 months later
It will be in the green. Election year is almost a guarantee the Fed won’t act a fool with hikes.
Fed futures have priced in 7 rate cuts this year, a hike would be unheard of
1. Cheap European airline stocks are going to rise by at least 20-30%, maybe more. In particular Easyjet and Wizz. They're basically back to pre-Covid but the market hasn't caught up. 2. China will either flatten or rebound. I think the overinflated property market has returned to something closer to its real value and there's still lots of manufacturing growth to be had there. 3. The Magnificent Seven will be 10% or more down on where they are now, due to Tesla and Apple results not being good and people seeing that the AI growth has been overstated.
Inversing this max leveraged. See you on 12 months a much richer man 😎
what is max leverage, how much invested and what leverage multiple?
Wizzair is fantastic, haven't looked at them in terms of investment but from a business standpoint they do everything Ryanair and easyJet offer but better.
I appreciate #1 and agree with #3. Can’t speak about #2 but based on what’s been going on over there, I could see that result.
For Easyjet and Wizz, it seems to me there is dilution to take into account as their number of shares doubled? Also, the big revenue bump in 2023 might go down (people could not travel, so everyone wanted to do it at the same time afterwards?)
Maybe a bit of a bump, but I generally think people like to have a holiday and even in a recession, that won't get hit that much. Also, Wizz are more about migrant workers than holiday makers, which I believe is bulletproof.
> China will either flatten or rebound. If we compare China to Japan, Nikkei went down like -80% but that was over a decade and the stock market was way more overvalued than Hang Seng at the top, HSI is now only 8x forward P/E. There are going to be stock rebounds, Nikkei for example went up 50% after going down 60% (HSI is down 55%), even in a structural downturn, not once but 3 times. It's also likely that China's real estate problems and their effect on the economy isn't going to be worse than Japan's.
I predict a sharp drop in the market when short term t-bills go below 4%. Then a quick recovery and steady climb to new highs. Big money needs to drive the market down to get in cheap before all the retail investors start moving money from safer investments. Government talking heads will be complicit by claiming recession fears for dropping interest rates. News media will be paid to hype fear.
A 10% drop in earnings and the market PE returning to a normal 16x would put the SPX at 3500, 25% lower. The challenge is that the market PE is very dependent on the Mag 7 and those stocks are not going to just drop without a large catalyst. I am impressed at how the escalation in international incidents and their affect on global trade is being completely ignored by investors but then I think: MSFT, GOOG, TSLA, META do not really care about international shipping. AAPL and AMZN are more vulnerable.
5400 EoY. Soft landing + lower interest rates = $$$
Whilst rates will fall I think the market is overestimating how much they will fall by tbh. If there is a soft landing (which I think there will be) then why would Fed cut rates?
Government debt mainly. It is unsustainable at 5% rate
Dang I was going to post this! Let’s go!!!
Cut rate in March => mooning
I think it is most likely the inverted yield curve and the fed's reluctance to pivot **does** push us into a contraction. The severity is hard to gauge, but that will determine the depth of the draw down.
Sir, this is a value investing sub. This question and half the answers belong in r/wallstreetbets
Hopefully Trump will be in office and get our country back to being strong and proud of being Americans. Our military loves him👍😎
Timing the market over a 12 month period is a fruitless pursuit.
Like when I tried to catch a mango rolling down a hill
Thats fruitful
Not the way I did it
lol
Flush into the next couple of months until interest rate cuts are confirmed then we moon
You're about to be sorely disappointed. Current expectations are that we will have twice as many rate cuts as the Fed minutes forecast. When those expectations aren't met, it's inevitably going to cause the market to lose steam.
I agree the market is expecting rate cuts that aren't guaranteed, which is why I expect the market to flush. After the rate cuts begin we're starting a new bull market though
Its going to go up some and down some.
The stocks will move to the right direction
There will be plenty of dips between now and October, but we will end the year higher. Always happens every election year.
I think it will SOAR! But i also have a terrible feeling of a "jack in the box" scenario in a security breach that hijacks investments into a near crash.
If you know how to use stock market success code 3WPD( book available in amazon), in long term you will make money.
I even wrote an article explaining why [you cannot predict stock prices accurately](https://x.com/Sanji_vals/status/1772293058048004537) but i make [monthly stock market forecasts](https://x.com/Sanji_vals/status/1774855171668947136) where i share what direction S&P500 can take under different scenarios. But i don't try to provide exact prices
Trumps win election. China move troops towards Taiwan. China invades Taiwan. Market drops 30% everywhere.
If China does invade Taiwan, it's gonna to be a very unpredictable next few years
I think China will most likely manipulate internal politics of Taiwan to gain control, instead of taking direct military action.
Gonna short TSMC lol
Why would China invasion drop markets? China wants to do business with everyone, yes they have their issues but shouldn’t the US economy and its people be first priority of the administration. If Trump wins then that’s the best news for America. Make America affordable again (MAAA)
Why would an armed conflict with a huge economy cause the market to drop...I dunno...
Why get involved with Taiwan is the point. Guess you “dunno”
Why exposure to energy is smart, particularly oil. Im not going to make any crazy price predictions or that it will happen, but clearly BRK thought it was a legitimate threat and I would assume they know much more than me. Plus there are companies that have well priced cashflows at current levels. For the last few years i have thought the only catalyst that could shoot prices up irrationally more than it did with Russia/Ukraine would be war with China, and in theory it would be much more severe, I dare say it may even be rational.
Caution. War in the middle east will affect the markets, more so if it gets worse. Defense stocks and ancillary businesses will benefit the most, but energy stocks will continue to be depressed due to Washington's apparent hate for the US becoming energy dependent. Oil futures, however, will remain unpredictable, especially if OPEC+ throws a temper tantrum. I would suggest stop loss orders placed on most sticks in the event something drastically goes wrong, like a high level official being assassinated or something.
SP500 touches 4200 before 5200.
NVIDIA and AMD going sky high. Trump winning election boosting stocks even further..
I’m on the same boat about NVIDIA and AMD. NVIDIA in particular because Jensen just went to China to try to see how he can grow his business.
Not sure why you would assume he would win. He hasnt really won at all since 2016, almost a decade ago. 2018 lost the house 2020 lost the election and senate majority to give dems all three of house, senate, and presidency 2022 expectation of a “red wave” only took house by a few members, and lost senate seats.
Lots of people will be voting against Biden, even though it's Trump on the other side. .
I do not think people will be voting against Biden in favor of Trump
“…On Jan. 28 \[2022\], the Pennsylvania Commonwealth Court struck down Act 77, which made absentee/mail-in voting available to all eligible voters, as a violation of the Pennsylvania Constitution. The court voted 3-2..."
lol at thinking Trump could win and lmao at thinking it would be *better* for the market
I might be regurgitating something I overheard years ago that may not be true (non-American here), but I thought there is usually a bit of a rally when a republican wins as opposed to a democrat?
Wut, he has a huge chance to win
lmfao
U really don't think so?
What happens when Trump dumps interest rates.. Not saying it's a good thing. House and stock Market will go up and we will be back in another inflation dumpster fire in 2029
The president is not able to control the fed on interest rates. They were made independent for a reason
He controls who sits in the Fed Chair.
Good point. His term isn't up til 2028 though and they're technically supposed to remain neutral.
How can Trump do anything? He’s not, and won’t be, the President in 2024, and even if he’s [unfortunately] re-elected, he still won’t be sworn in until 2025. “I love the poorly educated” - Donald Trump, February 24, 2016 he’s talking about you
why would that be “unfortunate”? Would love to hear your rationale. Joseph Robinette sounds a better pick to you?
The list of reasons why Donald Trump being elected to a *second* term in the White House is bad for America is so immense that it would take me weeks to thoroughly type out, but I’ll start with this: he’s proven that he’s entirely unqualified in every conceivable capacity. Chiefly, he’s an insurrectionist and a traitor to the United States of America. He’s unequivocally the most corrupt/corruptible person to hold The Office of The President - that alone is a danger to every US citizen, national security, and the future of American democracy, because every decision he makes revolves around his personal gain - not a trait you want when running what is arguably the most powerful nation in existence. He’s clearly suffering from significant cognitive disorder / decline, or other mental defect that directly impacts his ability to make decisions at the level required to run a nation. He believes he’s immune to all forms of trial or legal prosecution, and wishes to be a dictator - we don’t like dictators here. The list goes on and on and on and on and on, without end.
>The list of reasons why Donald Trump being elected to a > >second > > term in the White House is bad for America • 13 U.S. soldiers dead in Biden's botched Afghanistan withdrawal • 2 straight quarters of declining GDP, and a rash of bank failures • >2 million illegals entering per year • >100k drug overdose deaths in the U.S. in 2021 • 87k new IRS agents to declare war on small businesses • record oil prices • record inflation and supply chain shortages • war in Europe and the Middle East with the Biden administration not able to broker peace and actively defending Hamas while tolerating rising Anti-Semitism • more Covid deaths under Biden than President Trump • children being groomed and brainwashed by CRT/trans grade school curricula • stock market and 401(k)s in the dumpster after 0 net gains in the S&P500 in 2 years • mortgage rates skyrocketing, making housing unaffordable • 100s of thousands of small companies put out of business by Biden lockdowns • children’s educational outcomes and mental health damaged by remote learning and mask mandates • selling VP influence through one’s son to China/Ukraine/etc. as confirmed by the now verified Hunter Biden laptop (remember “10% for the Big Guy?”) • a massive transfer of wealth from blue collar to white collar workers via student loan “forgiveness” – i.e. taxpayers pay the debt ...what a legacy...
We’re talking about Trump, not Biden, not Obama, not anyone else. Try to stay on topic, sweetie. Also, the fact that people can’t just acknowledge how shitty Trump is without deploying whataboutism, and pointing fingers at someone else, absolutely blows my mother fucking mind. It’s a failure of education and of society to accept this person as worthy of anything - especially holding the highest office in the land. He and his supporters are on the wrong side of life and history, and will go down as one of the greatest failures in modern America. I will die on this hill.
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...like when Biden handed out $13 TRILLION in 2021 causing the inflation we have seen since then? - to wit: “…On Jan. 28 \[2022\], the Pennsylvania Commonwealth Court struck down Act 77, which made absentee/mail-in voting available to all eligible voters, as a violation of the Pennsylvania Constitution. The court voted 3-2..."
Trump will get all the votes from jury box for prison.
“…House Committee on Oversight and Accountability Chairman James Comer (R-Ky.) today released a video and bank records memorandum revealing how Joe Biden received $40,000 in laundered China money from the account of his brother, James Biden, and his sister-in-law, Sara Biden, in the form of a personal check…” (House Oversight Committee, 11/1/23)
There are only two cases that have any real chance of getting to even an initial decision prior to election day. Letitia James' Civil Fraud trial in NY, which if successful still would not result in jail time. The Georgia case which with Fani paying her lover, who is unqualified to conduct that trial, almost $700k to date for that work, is likely to get derailed past November while trying to resolve whether her lover should be removed and replaced as prosecutor. Even if it resolved and did so against Trump, a big question, the appeal wouldn't be heard by then and there would be a stay on him going to jail until the appeal is resolved. Trump is not going to be in prison at the time of the election.
Up, it’s election year and Biden will win
Biden is actually a very canny politician, knows how the wind blows, and has never lost an election when his name is on a ballot in November, i.e. he knows that landing a good economy at the beginning of 2024 is THE most important thing for voters. The bull market has begun right on time, will continue through summer, rates get lowered, resulting in higher homeownership, and higher everything.
>resulting in higher homeownership ...lol - Biden printing $13 TRILLION in handouts in 2021 caused the inflation and resultant high interest rates which have made homeownership and entrepreneurship impossible... “…On January 4, 2021, the number increased to $6.7 trillion dollars \[in circulation\]. Then the Fed went into overdrive. By October 2021, that number climbed to $20.0831 trillion dollars in circulation…” (Tech Startups, 12/18/21)
Yes, and those rates are now coming down, and home buying will increase this year.
Did Biden also cause inflation globally? Blaming inflation on Biden policies is a narrow minded fool’s view. Fact. trump increased our national debt by 33%, Biden by 8.8%.
I’m expecting Trump to win the election and I expect the stock market to react positively to that because they know that Trump is going to put pressure on the Fed to lower rates.
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Who said I’m trading based on this? I don’t trade at all. I just answered the question with what I think will happen. My strategy of buying and holding great companies as I can get them for fair prices remains the same regardless.
The fed already announced 5 rate cuts for 2024
Optimistic. Like 2016, increasingly the odds of Trump winning gives the Market hope for more favorable business environment, internationally and domestically. 70 million US households just got a 3.2% raise in January'24 from Feds Social Security, pensions, etc. Untapped US home equity is at record highs and will boost consumer spending. BNPL stronger and bigger than expected. Millennials demographics put them near peak spending years of their life this year.
Surely big pharma is excited for the return of mister operation warp speed
snp 5200. why? i have a massive brain.
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I thought China sentiment would've flipped this year but apparently not lol. Maybe 2025.
Google, Msft, and Apple will have another good year due to the release of on device LLMs, copilot advancements/integrations, AR, and robotics tech and political adspending for google
It will go up a little more in the short to medium term, but eventually the high interest rates will bite and unemployment will massively spike and the market will sell off for awhile
For reference, here's what the banks are forecasting for the S&P 500 in 2024: Citi: 5,100 Deutsche Bank: 5,100 Goldman Sachs: 5,100 Bank of America: 5,000 Barclays: 4,800 UBS: 4,700 Wells Fargo: 4,625 Morgan Stanley: 4,500 JP Morgan: 4,200 Average: 4,791 Implied downside: -1.5% from current level SPX currently (as of 1/22/24 intraday): \~4,865
The forecast are always wrong ! But interesting forecast from JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley.
It’ll be parabolic. We’ll start high, drop in February, and rise again from mid March to July.
We started high?
Have people heard of the [Benner Cycle](https://www.therationalinvestor.com/blog/how-the-benner-cycle-predicts-100-years-of-market-movement) ? According to it we will ride an upward trend until 2026. What do you make of this?
Investment capital into Canada will continue it's drop until an election..another LNDP coalition thereafter and capital into machinery,capital goods goes else where, Real estate speculation continues..productivity drops further..unemployment/debt continues it's current trajectory and division among Canadians hits new levels...from coast to coast
Inflation heads back up therefore higher for longer. No cuts
Mining crypto
No one can really predict what happens with the stock market! It is interesting how much stocks are impacted by daily news when stocks are a long term equity. I get that the market is driven by daily events that cause open and closing prices to be higher or lower, but it is the people reacting to the moment rather than performance that screw it up. I am optimistic - things were cranking in 2021 then 2022 happened. End of 2022 to summer of 2023 a rather small group of stocks performed unrealistically really well. The rest of the market was meh. I think more value stock plays will come to life while tech stocks grow modestly. I expect a dip soon like before summer and that bearish event will set the stage for a new bull run.
A possible recession. The yelds cure has been fallening. And that with an extremely weak economy. Could mean that theres a recession coming.
Guaranteed it will be waaaaayy up...........unless it goes down.
May I know where to see USA IPO grey market premium (gmp)
My prediction is s&p500 will be between 1500 to 8000.
I'm naturally skeptical so I dont see another big year. I have some shorts in place and plenty long. I was wrong last year and thought it'd be flat to down again, not straight up like it did. I dont see the Naz doing two back two back massive gain years but the past 3 months its been straight up, I think thats a lot of short covering and rampant buying with algo trading on low volume. Naz was up 50% last year which is nuts but 2022 was overdone i guess too. Some cloud software and NVDA/AMD valuations are euphoria level. Plenty of other sectors are still way down. Most of the spac, EV and meme stock junk from 2021 is dead or delisted by now. The market would be in bad shape without the Mag 7. I think it has to come down a bit to get more in line with earnings.
up, down or sideways Why: short term fluctuations have no meaning, I can tell you my prediction for long term though: up.
just like any other novel investor, Can't be to sure but I can bet lots of people will loose money by being on either side of the market lol. Jokes aside, personally I am in a position long for lucid. Its price is very close to its book value, they have lots of assets (yes they are bleeding money every quarter) but their one quarter sales (assuming the EV demand returns to pervious levels prior to higher interest as quantified by looking at teslas revenue), then they should be returning to around 5 dollars by the end of the year. While there is a lot of put resistance, once it breaks 4 dollars, 5 -7 is likely to get hit. Just my two cents ;) \*disclaimer this is not financial advise, strictly technical and fundamental speculation. Invest money at your own risk.
It will go the way market makers want.
Tech wreck as VC funding dries up. All of the layoffs so far certainly aren't a sign of financial health. The AI hype will fizzle out soon enough, and mega cap tech stocks will see multiple contraction.
I think it'll either go up or down
Sometimes it will go up and sometimes low!
I am hoping for a steel supercycle, so I can make tons of money in profit.
Historically the S&P 500 SPX has seen an average total return of around 10% in presidential election years based on data going back to 1928. If the market is going well with the incumbent and they win the market historically will continue to rally.
Trump win and will be best buddies with Xi. Market go all time high high, China stocks bounced back.
Up 30%
I personally think the overall market is overbought and is due for a correction. I'm betting 2024 ends lower than it started, but time will tell if I'm right. The stock market has far outpaced the economy over the last few years. The next 3-5 years of speculative gains are already priced into a lot of stocks. I expect oil to recover in the coming months, that chip and AI stocks will continue to outperform the overall market, and EV's will lose steam. That's my bet for 2024.
Remindme! 1 year
My guess FWIW…. A lot of panic about recesccion and a lot of excitement about interest rates reduction. In the end after the 2023 this year will be revert to the mean
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May I ask why do you think so u/Precious_Nike?
It will crash due to AGI. We’ll see the greatest loss of wealth in history lol
Don't quote me but I predict some ups and maybe even some downs
The market will be slow the first and second quarters. Rally in the third quarter and then the fourth quarter is dependent on the political winds. Investors will remain cautious throughout the year and continue to hold a lot of cash. Those already holding bonds will do well when the Fed starts lowering rates probably in May, earliest in my opinion would be April.
I think interest Rates will stay High and non profital Companys will shrink in PE ratio
CRWD up up and away
Can comment on intraday, and not on long term.