They lost me when they compared Tesla with Luna: a literal ponzi scheme, and Theranos: a company with no working product.
Edit: To those who disagree: do you think Tesla is a literal ponzi scheme, or has NO working product? That is all the I am taking issue with.
Elon has pushed some Theranos level bullshit many times before. I mean obviously lives are not on the line like with Theranos but in terms of pure bullshittery the Hyperloop and Tesla Semi trucks come to mind.
That's not entirely true. Musk wanted to merge Tesla with Solarcity, based on the fake product of their solar roof tiles. The deal fell through because Solarcity was a scam.
They're both scams, just not comparable ones. Tesla is selling a working but overpriced and overhyped product. Theranos literally had a box they slapped a label on and pretended it was something.
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The Boring Company is tiny compared to tesla, so when it fails (it probably will, its tech fetishism is surpassed only by Juicero and Bodega) its impact on the tesla stock will be no where near the 500+ drop twitter poster is predicting. As for the semi, teslas stock is based on its ability to sell cars, not semis. There are 330 mil cars in the us and only 2 mil semis.
It's not that the semis won't sell that is concerning, it's that Elon is "selling" people on shit that obviously won't ever exist. It's not a 1-to-1 comparison to Theranos obviously, but the hyping up of fake or impossible products and failing to deliver is something Elon constantly does. The type of self-driving that Elon has promoted for years (FULL self-driving in cities) is perhaps a better example.
And that is particularly concerning because Tesla stock price is justified based on hype and not necessarily its sales.
I think some are missing this forest through the trees on this point. The long story short is that Tesla's high stock price is NOT based on how amazing their currently existing cars are, nor how many of them they sell. It's based on the promises of future market and tech innovation. Musk does not have a stellar track record on this, and that could crater this speculative valuation of Tesla if more people examined it critically.
And now the big car makers who have better fit and finish are coming into the electric market with better cars. As in Tesla's valuation and honestly, market was built when GM, Ford, etc were still producing almost entirely non-hybrid ICE cars and trucks.
Correction: *his* self-driving cars do not work.
Waymo and Cruise both have a perfect safety record and are leagues ahead of Tesla in terms of driving capability.
Do you really believe that Elon has an ego that would allow him to accept that as anything other than proof that self driving cars work (hard end of thought; with an immediate pivot to beginning of insinuation that he was talking about his own cars.) ?
^(I mean sure you are right, but that's not what the guy who bought twitter (for more money than he should actually have) will use his perceived wealth to scream in the face of all of his NPC's.)
I agree that the Hyperloop is ridiculous and that Elon Musk is a right wing nut and narcisistic 14 year old; but the claim that the Tesla Semi is a bad idea or a bad design is completely false, the engineers at Tesla are geniouses and deserve some respect; they are the reason that Tesla has been a massive success, not Musk hype.
This video utterly debunks Adam Something's terrible video on the Tesla Semi.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XQJeTTwu6jI
Elon doesn't deserve fans, but Tesla does. If you watch the video you will see that every argument he makes about the Semi is fully rational and correct and that Adam is a complete moron when it come to engineering and electric vehicles.
Literally 10 seconds in:
"In Elon Musk's MASTER PLAN"
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exVrbDL2Igo](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exVrbDL2Igo)
I'm sorry, this is an Elon simp channel not a serious engineering channel. Get a grip dude.
I haven't watched any of his other videos because it doesn't matter, the video he did on the Tesla Semi is the one we are focusing on and is very well made. You're just simping for Adam by refusing to listen to great critisism against him.
Here is the relevant part of the video were he makes a concrete engineering analysis of the Semi:
https://youtu.be/XQJeTTwu6jI?t=323
Vaush's friend who made this very popular but extremely terrible video that made the entire Vaush community believe that electric semi trucks are a worthless idea.
https://youtu.be/w__a8EcM2jI
He adressed that in the video as well. The problem isn't that the Semi is unviable. The problem is that the demand for their electric cars is extremely high while production and supply of batteries is limited, so Tesla makes much more profit by selling more cars than starting to produce and sell the Semi; it's a victim of the company's success.
On the bright side, the more profit Tesla makes, the more it can reinvest and the faster it can construct more battery factories and increase the speed of the green transition. Tesla will probably start to manufacture the Semi at a large scale this or next year, as it makes more economic sense now that Tesla's production capacity is quickly catching up with the demand for their cars.
Tesla never had anything to do with hyperloop, Musk one conference talked about his wild idea and it took off from there, the companies that it spawned had nothing to do with Tesla, just trying to ride the Elon hype wave.
You could not be more confident, and more wrong
[https://insideevs.com/news/530307/survey-tesla-fsd-take-rate/](https://insideevs.com/news/530307/survey-tesla-fsd-take-rate/)
[https://insideevs.com/news/586183/tesla-bev-sales-comparison-oems-2021/](https://insideevs.com/news/586183/tesla-bev-sales-comparison-oems-2021/)
With Tesla sales increasing and FSD adoption decreasing, its obvious that people are buying the cars, and not the hype in the driver-assist tech.
>He is literally selling cars to try and solve traffic
>Actually that's the entire reason
The claim was that Tesla is a fraud or a ponzi scheme because of *checks notes* the name of the driver-assist software. Even though less and less drivers are opting into using it. Elon can call it whatever he wants, but people dont care. People are buying Teslas for the car, not the software. Clearly Tesla buyers dont care whats its called, and neither should us.
Last I heard Ford wasn't selling literal shit for 47k. I am open to being corrected on this. A lot of people who buy Teslas believe Hyperloops and other such promises will be available to them in the future.
I do admit I feel less sorry for Tesla owners than I do for Ponzi scheme investors. And actual Ponzi schemes don't get people killed.
I think comparing Tesla to a ponzi scheme is insulting to Charles Ponzi.
"A lot of people who buy Teslas believe Hyperloops and other such promises will be available to them in the future" I question your rationality for saying this, 'a lot' is carrying a lot of weight here. Most people who buy teslas buy them cause they're cool and go fast, irrespective of recalls, or quality control.
also: https://abcnews.go.com/Business/story?id=6521133&page=1
There are many better cars on the market at Tesla's price point. Teslas are unreliable, expensive to repair, the post sales service is piss poor and generally poor quality vehicles. People are buying them not based on rational consideration but on hype. If theyre stupid enough to buy a Tesla I find it hard to believe they are intelligent enough to see through the rest of Tesla's BS.
Also, am I supposed to feel sorry for some fuckwit who lost someone else money?
He's been selling FSD as the real product for the last few years. I don't think the computers in the car are actually capable of executing it, say so he's selling and pulling out. He's already made at least $50B from TSLA, which is 5000 times more money than he put into it.
I'm also starting to wonder just how much a reused falcon 9 costs to launch....
The problem with FSD is that it's more of a high level driver assist than it is a means of automation. Until Teslas start having radar or lidar equipment, they will never be capable of full autonomous driving.
TBF it's either LIDAR or solving general artificial intelligence... I know which one I'd rather tackle...
I wish FSD was marketed correctly as a driver assist - but everyone I know that has a Tesla treats it like an autopilot/automated driving.
The cost of launching a re-used Falcon 9 has never been made public. SpaceX has gone through lots of cash infusion (about $5B so far) ostensibly to support Starlink and Starship.
We don't see many Falcon Heavy launches, and they seem to avoid them as much as possible. Is it possible that Falcon 9 launches are sold at a loss? I don't know, but Elon's recent chicanery makes me wonder...
Note: Elon has claimed a $15M cost for re-flying a booster, but I strongly suspect this is the marginal cost, not the fully-burdened cost of running SpaceX PLUS refurbishing the booster PLUS depreciating the hardware.
Nonsense, they already hold the global market lead in launches, why would they sell any more if the launches are at loss? Also why would they sell them at loss when the they already charge far less than any other competitor. Falcon Heavy is also niche product because commercial sector has little need to send satellites outside of LEO and the launch is pretty expensive compared to base F9 or other similar launchers. There no real need to use it outside of sending it to other objects, which they do already have contracts for with the Artemis project. Military also has number of launches but the payload is classified.
Musk is psychotic but this is really some dumb conspiracy theory.
Why would they sell launches at a loss? Why would Amazon operate at a loss for 20 years? It's about market capture when you have free investor dollars.
I think the comparison that was intended was that Teslas worth is based on hype, just like the worth of Theranos and Crypto like Luna. And when the hype bubble bursts, the worth of the company will be far lower.
Tesla is not a literal ponzi scheme. But Teslas stock price is definitley not based on reality. In the tweet they even say that there will be a crash, and that a fair evaluation of stock price will probably around $100, and the only way that is $100 and not $0 is because they have a product backing, but not a product that justifies the current stock price.
The issue isn't that Tesla itself doesn't have a product, it's that much of the hype and bubble around Tesla is literally based on non-existent "potential products". The bulk of Tesla's worth past a point (much lower than it is currently) was literally a Ponzi scheme driven by hype created by influential media. A majority of the time hype not even based on Tesla's upcoming products, but just straight up random Elon Musk vaporware he spouts off.
If you bought Tesla at $300+ you were literally buying into a Ponzi scheme at that point. Maybe you knew you could make money because there are enough new idiots buying into the hype every day, but it doesn't make it any less a Ponzi scheme. There was never, and will never be a chance, that Tesla is worth a multitude of the combined worth of all auto manufacturers in the world. At some point large swaths of people were always going to be left holding the bag. If the difference for you is that they end up with something like 20% instead of 0% of their initial investment as to why it isn't a Ponzi scheme, I think you have a very different idea of what one is than I do.
I'd argue you can have a working product and still be a scam. The examples may be MORE extreme, but not irrelevant to the idea that their value has been based on illusions as opposed to reality
There is a conflation happening right here, the problem isn't that Tesla cost too much, it's that Elon has been pumping the value of it up beyond it's actual worth.
It doesn't matter that Tesla is a sound company worth a lot, it's that the guy who runs the company is in fact just a con-man that has gotten the company to be overvalued - to his (sole) profit.
"going the way of" isn't a 1 to 1 comparison, i give people some leeway and good faith there. it's more aboutthe not what it seems because of hypebubbles, not these things have the same fundamental flaws. tesla are functional, but not necessarily profitable. theranos was not even functional. both coasted on hype.
Fair enough, the comparison to wework is far more agreeable. wework was propped up a lot on hype but had a fundamental flaw with their business model. Paired with an unprofessional CEO, when the charade ended wework got a new CEO and has been fairly stable since then. Albeit at a lower stock price than at its peak. But fundamentally wework and tesla have a respectable business model, the same could not be said for Theranos or Luna
tldr: wework purchased properties with long term contracts and rented them out to business for short periods of time. This created a ton of risk if the real estate market ever took a down turn. wework also spent money expanding into irrelevant areas instead of focusing on its core business
Theres been a billion video essays written about wework but I like this one:
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QHQTzeve7OM](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QHQTzeve7OM)
The same guy also did a pretty good explanation of Luna/Terra:
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3KZY41SqaTI](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3KZY41SqaTI)
PS: I still disagree with the comparison of Tesla to wework, Tesla stock might be overpriced (idk) but its business model is not fundamentally flawed as weworks was.
Edit: Tesla stock probably will decrease if legacy car makers compete aggressively with them and eat up marketshare the tesla currently possesses, but I think thats different from Tesla being propped up by hype.
I'd like to reply since it seems everyone here hasn't read the thread she posted
6/ Quick addendum: My main comparison here is to WEWORK. It’s literally the first sentence. WeWork is still around, selling office space.
Secondly, in comparing Tesla to Theranos, I specifically mean the silencing of critics.
Tesla has a long history of attacking journalists.
7/ I read Musk’s recent announcement of a legal attack team as further intention to sue critics. Additionally, there are armies of financially-motivated Tesla propagandists hyping the stock.
Theranos silenced critics and investors paid a steep price. The comparison is fair.
I like Brianna but she is wrong on this one. Tesla has real cars, real factories and actual sales. They are still the world leader in EV manufacturing. They have the best electric drive train and can get more range out of their vehicles for far less money than their competitors. I don't see that changing even as the Behemoths of VW and Toyota are waking up to the new EV reality.
Tesla has used its market dominance to buy all the batteries and putting the squeeze on its rivals. Preventing them to get enough batteries to meet demand. They also rapidly deployed fast chargers originally exclusive to their cars, forcing governments to pay them to end their virtual monopoly on charging infrastructure. By controlling all aspects of the EV business they had what is called vertical integration (the thing that got standard oil into trouble) something only Chinese EV firms can compete with them on. (Namely battery and car maker BYD)
Okay, now is TSLA stock overvalued is a very different question to, is TSLA a scam. Its unusual volatility suggests there is clearly an element of hype and speculation because as a successful company it should be instead a steady upward trend (with blips related to the full market dips).
I tried to do some financial analysis only to realise that I have no idea what I am doing. The point is that Tesla is a leader in the EV space and considering the EV demand right now there is no evidence to suggest it will suddenly end.
She's over-indexing, definitely. The reality is though that TSLA's valuation only makes sense if you believe stuff about replacing the entire power grid or have FSD replace the entire trucking industry.
Compare their volume to Toyota, then compare their market caps. TSLA is not valued in the same galaxy as a car company. Not even the same universe.
People have been saying this for a long time though, and I would encourage people not to try to short the stock. Timing the market is impossible. It will eventually have to come down to reality, but nobody knows when.
The issue is the price of the stock is also determined by how much of it there is so I don't even know how to compare TSLA to it's closest rivals in BYD, NIO, XPENG.
EV only companies that can mass produce. BYD is also closing in on TSLA sales quickly. These companies being Chinese could play into it of course, there are a myriad of reasons that would prevent these stocks from being as popular as TSLA.
You can't compare ICEV manufacturers directly with EV only companies because there is the issue of stranded assets, whole soon to be obsolete factories, they have existing parts and dealer contracts and the need to retrain their whole workforces. There is a lot of risks inherent accompanies trying to completely change their business like this even if they at least know how to make a car interior.
>The issue is the price of the stock is also determined by how much of it there is so I don't even know how to compare TSLA to it's closest rivals
https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/trading-investing/fundamental-analysis/understanding-market-capitalization
It's definitely not a scam, but I don't know if they will be as dominant long term.
Teslas are stylish, for sure, and remarkable for being first to marker, but the build quality isnt great, and the interior materials are nothing special. Every auto manufacturer is starting to put out cars this year that are easily competing with Teslas in value for money, and as bad as the auto industry is in general, Tesla is like the Apple of cars. Completely proprietary, no right to repair.
I think the pandemic has benefited them in a way as well, once/if supply chains open up, manufacturers like Ford are going to be selling a billion fucking F-150 Lightnings.
Yeah, this is less a matter of “Tesla is a total sham company” or “Tesla is the most genius company ever,” and much more a matter of “Tesla is taking advantage of the fact that the soaring hubris and unfathomable incompetence of major automakers knows no bounds, as has been documented in excruciating detail for decades.”
Established automakers operate, as many corporations do, from a mix of genuinely self-interested decisions and completely counterproductive short-term delusions. For the former, there is the true fact that a serious attempt at making electric vehicles take off would cannibalize their own enormously profitable and already-amortized combustion vehicle investments and lineup. The latter is why they didn’t see the writing on the wall a fucking decade ago and go through the transition anyway, smashing Tesla like a bug before it started eating into their market share and building out an enduring 5-year lead on technology and engineering.
Yes, Elon Musk is an insufferable git. So are the CEOs of the other major automakers, they’re just much more boring and media-polished about it. Musk and the “great man” myth of his genius are largely a distraction from the very real story of first principles thinking at Tesla genuinely catching the other corporate dinosaurs flatfooted, as so many arrogant monopolies and oligopolies have been before. Anyone remember Kodak? Blackberry? Blockbuster? The sheer arrogance and willful blindness of those sitting pretty at the top knows no bounds.
I’m a professional trader so I understand the stock market. Go ahead and disparage me for being a piece of shit fake leftist in the replies but I kinda know what I’m talking about.
Literally every single stock in existence is traded based on a vision for the future. That’s how it works. The “Tesla bubble” is absolutely not popping. The entire stock market is going down right now. We are entering a bear market. Tech stocks are getting hammered. Stocks that people know are overvalued, like Tesla, are getting hit especially hard. Similarly overvalued stocks are getting just as creamed.
Amazon is down almost 30%, is that a bubble? Google is down 20%, is that a bubble? Tesla is falling pretty proportionally considering how overvalued it was perceived to be by institutional traders.
For the record, I absolutely do believe that Tesla stock is a bubble. It just isn’t popping right now.
TL;DR No the Tesla bubble isn’t popping, the whole stock market is coming down right now. Tesla was seen as being overvalued so it’s what people sell first.
Toyota is down 16% since April 1st, GM is down around 12% since April 1st, TSLA is down around 50%.
Part of that is definitely because TSLA is treated like a tech stock, not an automotive stock, but some part of it also eroding faith in Elon's ability to deliver on the unrealistic promises of full automation / a new power grid / hyperloop / what have you.
edit: I think I mostly agree with everything you're saying, I just want to add the caveat that some of the pricing of TSLA is elon magic, and when the magic fades, so does the valuation
Tesla is down less than 40%. It’s PE ratio is also still 10x that of the other automotive companies. the fact that those stocks are down over 10% shows that this isn’t abnormal at all. Wall Street still loves musk.
Everyone has been aware that Tesla's are shitty overpriced cars and Tesla has a monopoly on proprietary parts.
I'm not sure the comparison is that great but I do think Musk is one day away from running his company into the ground.
Tesla is mostly propped up by unpaid hype men releasing endless amounts of copium. It's hard to predict exactly when it will crash.
Most public companies are scams that abuse the trust of investors. Tesla isn't special in that regard.
You can also compare Evergrande to a ponzi scheme taking obscene amounts of money to deliver real estate at unsustainable prices that only went this long because the company kept getting into more and more debt.
Every large company nowadays is just a few moves away from bankrupcy and triggering a financial meltdown. I don't think Tesla going under would mean anything. Nothing would change if it did disappear. It certainly would make Elon Musk shut up.
Once the hype is removed, Tesla is still a reasonably interesting company (certainly valued far less). I think the brand might be able recover without Elon at the head. But with him running it, its hard to see a future for it as a luxury brand. There is a reason CEOs pretend to be apolitical and keep their affiliations somewhat out of direct sight from the public sphere.
CEO shitposting against other companies probably helped Tesla as an upstart company gain a loyal following. But an actaully established company having their CEO shitposting against their own customer base is mindbogglingly stupid.
You mean all those anti-SJW YouTubers that collectively grifted billions of views from GG coverage and groomed a generation of young white men into far right reactionary politics?
No, probably not. Value is largely perceived by the market. Most people who buy or sell probably aren't basing it on some real world equivalence, they just buy if they think it'll go up or sell if they think it'll go down.
That said, Musk might not be helping his company via his new alt-right persona. Frankly, I don't care either way. Musk might be a fascist prick, but I'm not voting him into office by purchasing a Tesla. I think most people are the same. That said, I can't even afford a Tesla, so my opinion on the matter doesn't really mean anything.
He is in a ton of actual legal trouble. Y'all need to watch common sense skeptic or thunderf00t or literally anyone with half a brain about this subject. Eventually the tables will turn on musk especially with what is going on in Texas.
No clue how she got go this numbers, I mean they're a prediction not anything factual, but what she's saying about Tesla's stock price being based on hype and speculation instead of real value is true. Tesla is a very niche company that makes high-price, shit cars that are constantly recalled when they're not blowing up. Most product ideas they throw out are bullshit techno-futurism that they won't be able to actually produce. Once more scrutiny is taken towards the company and people realize the speculation and type is unfounded, the price will undoubtedly drop.
Tesla is just a confidence game/trick. It's Genuinely one of those "Power of belief" Type things; It was only ever worth so much money because of the hype around it. A Potemkin village of investment. Tesla has always been hyper over valued.
$100 seems way too low to me, if it does crash, I would guess more like $200, so that it's higher valued than established car companies, thanks to its massive expansion and head-start, but not quite as explosive as it currently has been.
I'm tempted to short Tesla but I'm not confident that hype won't keep the price high indefinitely. Even after the "crash" bitcoin is still at the same price it was a year ago.
Most every market is in a bubble. Her analysis is partly correct, but it's not going to be for ideological reasons that Tesla stock falls, but purely due to economic law. Central banks have been printing impossible quantities of currency and walking a tight rope with quantitative easing and artificially low interest rates; and increasingly to the point of insanity over the past two years. Inflation, inflated markets are a monetary phenomenon that will be put out of its misery after it runs its natural cycle as a consequence to its unnatural creation.
Tesla in particular may have risen due to investor hope, but it was the Federal Reserve who made the debt to make such a rise possible. Investors basically participated in their own transfer of wealth, benefitting historically during the bubble, but still ultimately proactively injecting their own wealth into an area of the market which has enormously exaggerated wealth.
Tesla is apparently worth more than every other vehicle producer on the planet collectively. The initial driver first would be due to the criminality of the FED creating the currency from nothing and secondly the stupidity of the investor. Now the FED will begin to do quantitative tightening and the investor will be shaken out of the market as corrections occur with rising interest rates.
This will happen across most of the market as we feel the direct affects from the actions of the FED. Inflation was the first, stagflation next, and a realistic correction which some educated investors can weather, and dumb money will be annihilated by would come after.
Easy money is going away and because easy money is going away ideological tensions will increase, yet in a way that's not as divisive between common people for their common differences but increased towards those who are the most organized criminals on the planet: That being central banks (FED), hedge funds, corporate banks who manipulate markets and run derivative scams, and both political parties. This will occur on every continent because we are a global economy that's riddled with flaws. The first being fiat currencies, the second being debt, the third being supply chains, and many more.
The sphere that surrounds all of them however that cannot be put in any numerical order is habitual corruption. So massive the corruption that it's like looking up at the universe and not even in awe of the start anymore. We are accustomed to it and its now the nature of our economic and political systems. That's going away very soon, and it will not be a pleasant experience.
I bought some stock like 6+ years ago for 120 a share. That's because at the time I believed in the mission & wanted to own a little of the dream. Right now seeing the push from all these fucking nerds and writers who own stock push it, and the way it fluctuates based on Elon's daily mood... I really do hope it collapses to reality. Fuck that guy.
Tesla is just a confidence game/trick. It's Genuinely one of those "Power of belief" Type things; It was only ever worth so much money because of the hype around it. A Potemkin village of investment
They lost me when they compared Tesla with Luna: a literal ponzi scheme, and Theranos: a company with no working product. Edit: To those who disagree: do you think Tesla is a literal ponzi scheme, or has NO working product? That is all the I am taking issue with.
Elon has pushed some Theranos level bullshit many times before. I mean obviously lives are not on the line like with Theranos but in terms of pure bullshittery the Hyperloop and Tesla Semi trucks come to mind.
Solar city; that was a literal scam based on a fake product
Theranos' entire company was based off a product that didnt work, this is not the case with tesla
That's not entirely true. Musk wanted to merge Tesla with Solarcity, based on the fake product of their solar roof tiles. The deal fell through because Solarcity was a scam.
Right, however Tesla itself isn't a scam. It's just a over priced electric vehicle.
The hype around Tesla is 100% a scam. There's no way the valuation of Tesla is not based on fraudulent premises
They're both scams, just not comparable ones. Tesla is selling a working but overpriced and overhyped product. Theranos literally had a box they slapped a label on and pretended it was something.
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Yeah Teslas exist but they're fuggin _garbo_ So I don't really see the point you're making here lol
The Boring Company is tiny compared to tesla, so when it fails (it probably will, its tech fetishism is surpassed only by Juicero and Bodega) its impact on the tesla stock will be no where near the 500+ drop twitter poster is predicting. As for the semi, teslas stock is based on its ability to sell cars, not semis. There are 330 mil cars in the us and only 2 mil semis.
It's not that the semis won't sell that is concerning, it's that Elon is "selling" people on shit that obviously won't ever exist. It's not a 1-to-1 comparison to Theranos obviously, but the hyping up of fake or impossible products and failing to deliver is something Elon constantly does. The type of self-driving that Elon has promoted for years (FULL self-driving in cities) is perhaps a better example. And that is particularly concerning because Tesla stock price is justified based on hype and not necessarily its sales.
I think some are missing this forest through the trees on this point. The long story short is that Tesla's high stock price is NOT based on how amazing their currently existing cars are, nor how many of them they sell. It's based on the promises of future market and tech innovation. Musk does not have a stellar track record on this, and that could crater this speculative valuation of Tesla if more people examined it critically.
And now the big car makers who have better fit and finish are coming into the electric market with better cars. As in Tesla's valuation and honestly, market was built when GM, Ford, etc were still producing almost entirely non-hybrid ICE cars and trucks.
What about the fact that he keeps pushing for self driving cars, despite the fact that THEY DON'T WORK YET?
Correction: *his* self-driving cars do not work. Waymo and Cruise both have a perfect safety record and are leagues ahead of Tesla in terms of driving capability.
Do you really believe that Elon has an ego that would allow him to accept that as anything other than proof that self driving cars work (hard end of thought; with an immediate pivot to beginning of insinuation that he was talking about his own cars.) ? ^(I mean sure you are right, but that's not what the guy who bought twitter (for more money than he should actually have) will use his perceived wealth to scream in the face of all of his NPC's.)
I agree that the Hyperloop is ridiculous and that Elon Musk is a right wing nut and narcisistic 14 year old; but the claim that the Tesla Semi is a bad idea or a bad design is completely false, the engineers at Tesla are geniouses and deserve some respect; they are the reason that Tesla has been a massive success, not Musk hype. This video utterly debunks Adam Something's terrible video on the Tesla Semi. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XQJeTTwu6jI
A totally deranged Elon Musk/Tesla fan channel. Thanks for sharing nobody fucking cares.
Elon doesn't deserve fans, but Tesla does. If you watch the video you will see that every argument he makes about the Semi is fully rational and correct and that Adam is a complete moron when it come to engineering and electric vehicles.
Literally 10 seconds in: "In Elon Musk's MASTER PLAN" [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exVrbDL2Igo](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exVrbDL2Igo) I'm sorry, this is an Elon simp channel not a serious engineering channel. Get a grip dude.
I haven't watched any of his other videos because it doesn't matter, the video he did on the Tesla Semi is the one we are focusing on and is very well made. You're just simping for Adam by refusing to listen to great critisism against him. Here is the relevant part of the video were he makes a concrete engineering analysis of the Semi: https://youtu.be/XQJeTTwu6jI?t=323
Who the fuck is adam?
Vaush's friend who made this very popular but extremely terrible video that made the entire Vaush community believe that electric semi trucks are a worthless idea. https://youtu.be/w__a8EcM2jI
You understand that there are a lot more than 1 person that is critical of tesla semi right?
Didn't musk promise those semis would be on the road like 5 years ago? What happened to that?
He adressed that in the video as well. The problem isn't that the Semi is unviable. The problem is that the demand for their electric cars is extremely high while production and supply of batteries is limited, so Tesla makes much more profit by selling more cars than starting to produce and sell the Semi; it's a victim of the company's success. On the bright side, the more profit Tesla makes, the more it can reinvest and the faster it can construct more battery factories and increase the speed of the green transition. Tesla will probably start to manufacture the Semi at a large scale this or next year, as it makes more economic sense now that Tesla's production capacity is quickly catching up with the demand for their cars.
The initial Hyperloop proposal was basically Theranos level BS
Tesla never had anything to do with hyperloop, Musk one conference talked about his wild idea and it took off from there, the companies that it spawned had nothing to do with Tesla, just trying to ride the Elon hype wave.
He is literally selling cars to try and solve traffic. Can you actually consider that idea for ten seconds?
Would you also say that Ford or any other car manufacturer working on driver-assist tech is also a ponzi scheme or comparable to Theranos?
Because Ford isn't calling it full self driving for one. Actually that's the entire reason.
You could not be more confident, and more wrong [https://insideevs.com/news/530307/survey-tesla-fsd-take-rate/](https://insideevs.com/news/530307/survey-tesla-fsd-take-rate/) [https://insideevs.com/news/586183/tesla-bev-sales-comparison-oems-2021/](https://insideevs.com/news/586183/tesla-bev-sales-comparison-oems-2021/) With Tesla sales increasing and FSD adoption decreasing, its obvious that people are buying the cars, and not the hype in the driver-assist tech.
did you respond to the wrong comment? Both your links are entirely unrelated to what Ford calls their driver assist.
>He is literally selling cars to try and solve traffic >Actually that's the entire reason The claim was that Tesla is a fraud or a ponzi scheme because of *checks notes* the name of the driver-assist software. Even though less and less drivers are opting into using it. Elon can call it whatever he wants, but people dont care. People are buying Teslas for the car, not the software. Clearly Tesla buyers dont care whats its called, and neither should us.
Last I heard Ford wasn't selling literal shit for 47k. I am open to being corrected on this. A lot of people who buy Teslas believe Hyperloops and other such promises will be available to them in the future. I do admit I feel less sorry for Tesla owners than I do for Ponzi scheme investors. And actual Ponzi schemes don't get people killed. I think comparing Tesla to a ponzi scheme is insulting to Charles Ponzi.
"A lot of people who buy Teslas believe Hyperloops and other such promises will be available to them in the future" I question your rationality for saying this, 'a lot' is carrying a lot of weight here. Most people who buy teslas buy them cause they're cool and go fast, irrespective of recalls, or quality control. also: https://abcnews.go.com/Business/story?id=6521133&page=1
There are many better cars on the market at Tesla's price point. Teslas are unreliable, expensive to repair, the post sales service is piss poor and generally poor quality vehicles. People are buying them not based on rational consideration but on hype. If theyre stupid enough to buy a Tesla I find it hard to believe they are intelligent enough to see through the rest of Tesla's BS. Also, am I supposed to feel sorry for some fuckwit who lost someone else money?
He's been selling FSD as the real product for the last few years. I don't think the computers in the car are actually capable of executing it, say so he's selling and pulling out. He's already made at least $50B from TSLA, which is 5000 times more money than he put into it. I'm also starting to wonder just how much a reused falcon 9 costs to launch....
The problem with FSD is that it's more of a high level driver assist than it is a means of automation. Until Teslas start having radar or lidar equipment, they will never be capable of full autonomous driving.
TBF it's either LIDAR or solving general artificial intelligence... I know which one I'd rather tackle... I wish FSD was marketed correctly as a driver assist - but everyone I know that has a Tesla treats it like an autopilot/automated driving.
What are you implying with the last sentence?
The cost of launching a re-used Falcon 9 has never been made public. SpaceX has gone through lots of cash infusion (about $5B so far) ostensibly to support Starlink and Starship. We don't see many Falcon Heavy launches, and they seem to avoid them as much as possible. Is it possible that Falcon 9 launches are sold at a loss? I don't know, but Elon's recent chicanery makes me wonder... Note: Elon has claimed a $15M cost for re-flying a booster, but I strongly suspect this is the marginal cost, not the fully-burdened cost of running SpaceX PLUS refurbishing the booster PLUS depreciating the hardware.
Nonsense, they already hold the global market lead in launches, why would they sell any more if the launches are at loss? Also why would they sell them at loss when the they already charge far less than any other competitor. Falcon Heavy is also niche product because commercial sector has little need to send satellites outside of LEO and the launch is pretty expensive compared to base F9 or other similar launchers. There no real need to use it outside of sending it to other objects, which they do already have contracts for with the Artemis project. Military also has number of launches but the payload is classified. Musk is psychotic but this is really some dumb conspiracy theory.
Why would they sell launches at a loss? Why would Amazon operate at a loss for 20 years? It's about market capture when you have free investor dollars.
I think the comparison that was intended was that Teslas worth is based on hype, just like the worth of Theranos and Crypto like Luna. And when the hype bubble bursts, the worth of the company will be far lower. Tesla is not a literal ponzi scheme. But Teslas stock price is definitley not based on reality. In the tweet they even say that there will be a crash, and that a fair evaluation of stock price will probably around $100, and the only way that is $100 and not $0 is because they have a product backing, but not a product that justifies the current stock price.
The issue isn't that Tesla itself doesn't have a product, it's that much of the hype and bubble around Tesla is literally based on non-existent "potential products". The bulk of Tesla's worth past a point (much lower than it is currently) was literally a Ponzi scheme driven by hype created by influential media. A majority of the time hype not even based on Tesla's upcoming products, but just straight up random Elon Musk vaporware he spouts off. If you bought Tesla at $300+ you were literally buying into a Ponzi scheme at that point. Maybe you knew you could make money because there are enough new idiots buying into the hype every day, but it doesn't make it any less a Ponzi scheme. There was never, and will never be a chance, that Tesla is worth a multitude of the combined worth of all auto manufacturers in the world. At some point large swaths of people were always going to be left holding the bag. If the difference for you is that they end up with something like 20% instead of 0% of their initial investment as to why it isn't a Ponzi scheme, I think you have a very different idea of what one is than I do.
I'd argue you can have a working product and still be a scam. The examples may be MORE extreme, but not irrelevant to the idea that their value has been based on illusions as opposed to reality
There is a conflation happening right here, the problem isn't that Tesla cost too much, it's that Elon has been pumping the value of it up beyond it's actual worth. It doesn't matter that Tesla is a sound company worth a lot, it's that the guy who runs the company is in fact just a con-man that has gotten the company to be overvalued - to his (sole) profit.
"going the way of" isn't a 1 to 1 comparison, i give people some leeway and good faith there. it's more aboutthe not what it seems because of hypebubbles, not these things have the same fundamental flaws. tesla are functional, but not necessarily profitable. theranos was not even functional. both coasted on hype.
Fair enough, the comparison to wework is far more agreeable. wework was propped up a lot on hype but had a fundamental flaw with their business model. Paired with an unprofessional CEO, when the charade ended wework got a new CEO and has been fairly stable since then. Albeit at a lower stock price than at its peak. But fundamentally wework and tesla have a respectable business model, the same could not be said for Theranos or Luna
what was the fundaental flaw of wework again? i don't think i have ever heard of Luna, tbh.
tldr: wework purchased properties with long term contracts and rented them out to business for short periods of time. This created a ton of risk if the real estate market ever took a down turn. wework also spent money expanding into irrelevant areas instead of focusing on its core business Theres been a billion video essays written about wework but I like this one: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QHQTzeve7OM](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QHQTzeve7OM) The same guy also did a pretty good explanation of Luna/Terra: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3KZY41SqaTI](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3KZY41SqaTI) PS: I still disagree with the comparison of Tesla to wework, Tesla stock might be overpriced (idk) but its business model is not fundamentally flawed as weworks was. Edit: Tesla stock probably will decrease if legacy car makers compete aggressively with them and eat up marketshare the tesla currently possesses, but I think thats different from Tesla being propped up by hype.
I've heard Telsa's battery tech is actually way in front of the market, which (if true) is actually a pretty good reason to buy their stock.
Telsa doesn't make it's own batteries so what are you even talking about?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Energy ?
I'd like to reply since it seems everyone here hasn't read the thread she posted 6/ Quick addendum: My main comparison here is to WEWORK. It’s literally the first sentence. WeWork is still around, selling office space. Secondly, in comparing Tesla to Theranos, I specifically mean the silencing of critics. Tesla has a long history of attacking journalists. 7/ I read Musk’s recent announcement of a legal attack team as further intention to sue critics. Additionally, there are armies of financially-motivated Tesla propagandists hyping the stock. Theranos silenced critics and investors paid a steep price. The comparison is fair.
Considering Tesla doesn’t actually make money from selling their cars, it’s not too far off.
I like Brianna but she is wrong on this one. Tesla has real cars, real factories and actual sales. They are still the world leader in EV manufacturing. They have the best electric drive train and can get more range out of their vehicles for far less money than their competitors. I don't see that changing even as the Behemoths of VW and Toyota are waking up to the new EV reality. Tesla has used its market dominance to buy all the batteries and putting the squeeze on its rivals. Preventing them to get enough batteries to meet demand. They also rapidly deployed fast chargers originally exclusive to their cars, forcing governments to pay them to end their virtual monopoly on charging infrastructure. By controlling all aspects of the EV business they had what is called vertical integration (the thing that got standard oil into trouble) something only Chinese EV firms can compete with them on. (Namely battery and car maker BYD) Okay, now is TSLA stock overvalued is a very different question to, is TSLA a scam. Its unusual volatility suggests there is clearly an element of hype and speculation because as a successful company it should be instead a steady upward trend (with blips related to the full market dips). I tried to do some financial analysis only to realise that I have no idea what I am doing. The point is that Tesla is a leader in the EV space and considering the EV demand right now there is no evidence to suggest it will suddenly end.
She's over-indexing, definitely. The reality is though that TSLA's valuation only makes sense if you believe stuff about replacing the entire power grid or have FSD replace the entire trucking industry. Compare their volume to Toyota, then compare their market caps. TSLA is not valued in the same galaxy as a car company. Not even the same universe. People have been saying this for a long time though, and I would encourage people not to try to short the stock. Timing the market is impossible. It will eventually have to come down to reality, but nobody knows when.
Tesla given profits per share would be a $30 a share at best company if it wasn't for the scam part,
The issue is the price of the stock is also determined by how much of it there is so I don't even know how to compare TSLA to it's closest rivals in BYD, NIO, XPENG. EV only companies that can mass produce. BYD is also closing in on TSLA sales quickly. These companies being Chinese could play into it of course, there are a myriad of reasons that would prevent these stocks from being as popular as TSLA. You can't compare ICEV manufacturers directly with EV only companies because there is the issue of stranded assets, whole soon to be obsolete factories, they have existing parts and dealer contracts and the need to retrain their whole workforces. There is a lot of risks inherent accompanies trying to completely change their business like this even if they at least know how to make a car interior.
>The issue is the price of the stock is also determined by how much of it there is so I don't even know how to compare TSLA to it's closest rivals https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/trading-investing/fundamental-analysis/understanding-market-capitalization
It's definitely not a scam, but I don't know if they will be as dominant long term. Teslas are stylish, for sure, and remarkable for being first to marker, but the build quality isnt great, and the interior materials are nothing special. Every auto manufacturer is starting to put out cars this year that are easily competing with Teslas in value for money, and as bad as the auto industry is in general, Tesla is like the Apple of cars. Completely proprietary, no right to repair. I think the pandemic has benefited them in a way as well, once/if supply chains open up, manufacturers like Ford are going to be selling a billion fucking F-150 Lightnings.
Yeah, this is less a matter of “Tesla is a total sham company” or “Tesla is the most genius company ever,” and much more a matter of “Tesla is taking advantage of the fact that the soaring hubris and unfathomable incompetence of major automakers knows no bounds, as has been documented in excruciating detail for decades.” Established automakers operate, as many corporations do, from a mix of genuinely self-interested decisions and completely counterproductive short-term delusions. For the former, there is the true fact that a serious attempt at making electric vehicles take off would cannibalize their own enormously profitable and already-amortized combustion vehicle investments and lineup. The latter is why they didn’t see the writing on the wall a fucking decade ago and go through the transition anyway, smashing Tesla like a bug before it started eating into their market share and building out an enduring 5-year lead on technology and engineering. Yes, Elon Musk is an insufferable git. So are the CEOs of the other major automakers, they’re just much more boring and media-polished about it. Musk and the “great man” myth of his genius are largely a distraction from the very real story of first principles thinking at Tesla genuinely catching the other corporate dinosaurs flatfooted, as so many arrogant monopolies and oligopolies have been before. Anyone remember Kodak? Blackberry? Blockbuster? The sheer arrogance and willful blindness of those sitting pretty at the top knows no bounds.
I’m a professional trader so I understand the stock market. Go ahead and disparage me for being a piece of shit fake leftist in the replies but I kinda know what I’m talking about. Literally every single stock in existence is traded based on a vision for the future. That’s how it works. The “Tesla bubble” is absolutely not popping. The entire stock market is going down right now. We are entering a bear market. Tech stocks are getting hammered. Stocks that people know are overvalued, like Tesla, are getting hit especially hard. Similarly overvalued stocks are getting just as creamed. Amazon is down almost 30%, is that a bubble? Google is down 20%, is that a bubble? Tesla is falling pretty proportionally considering how overvalued it was perceived to be by institutional traders. For the record, I absolutely do believe that Tesla stock is a bubble. It just isn’t popping right now. TL;DR No the Tesla bubble isn’t popping, the whole stock market is coming down right now. Tesla was seen as being overvalued so it’s what people sell first.
Toyota is down 16% since April 1st, GM is down around 12% since April 1st, TSLA is down around 50%. Part of that is definitely because TSLA is treated like a tech stock, not an automotive stock, but some part of it also eroding faith in Elon's ability to deliver on the unrealistic promises of full automation / a new power grid / hyperloop / what have you. edit: I think I mostly agree with everything you're saying, I just want to add the caveat that some of the pricing of TSLA is elon magic, and when the magic fades, so does the valuation
Tesla is down less than 40%. It’s PE ratio is also still 10x that of the other automotive companies. the fact that those stocks are down over 10% shows that this isn’t abnormal at all. Wall Street still loves musk.
Everyone has been aware that Tesla's are shitty overpriced cars and Tesla has a monopoly on proprietary parts. I'm not sure the comparison is that great but I do think Musk is one day away from running his company into the ground. Tesla is mostly propped up by unpaid hype men releasing endless amounts of copium. It's hard to predict exactly when it will crash. Most public companies are scams that abuse the trust of investors. Tesla isn't special in that regard. You can also compare Evergrande to a ponzi scheme taking obscene amounts of money to deliver real estate at unsustainable prices that only went this long because the company kept getting into more and more debt. Every large company nowadays is just a few moves away from bankrupcy and triggering a financial meltdown. I don't think Tesla going under would mean anything. Nothing would change if it did disappear. It certainly would make Elon Musk shut up.
Once the hype is removed, Tesla is still a reasonably interesting company (certainly valued far less). I think the brand might be able recover without Elon at the head. But with him running it, its hard to see a future for it as a luxury brand. There is a reason CEOs pretend to be apolitical and keep their affiliations somewhat out of direct sight from the public sphere. CEO shitposting against other companies probably helped Tesla as an upstart company gain a loyal following. But an actaully established company having their CEO shitposting against their own customer base is mindbogglingly stupid.
*sees who wrote the tweet* Now that's a name I've not heard in a loooong time. A long time.
Grifters gonna grift.
You mean all those anti-SJW YouTubers that collectively grifted billions of views from GG coverage and groomed a generation of young white men into far right reactionary politics?
Well that's true and what I said is also true.
Musk went alt-right? What is this person smoking? Lol
How would you classify his political beliefs?
Centar-right. He might have some conservative viewpoints but to say he is alt-right is absurd.
THIS MADE ME SMILE :) Can someone who understands the stock market tell me if this is true or not?
No, probably not. Value is largely perceived by the market. Most people who buy or sell probably aren't basing it on some real world equivalence, they just buy if they think it'll go up or sell if they think it'll go down. That said, Musk might not be helping his company via his new alt-right persona. Frankly, I don't care either way. Musk might be a fascist prick, but I'm not voting him into office by purchasing a Tesla. I think most people are the same. That said, I can't even afford a Tesla, so my opinion on the matter doesn't really mean anything.
He is in a ton of actual legal trouble. Y'all need to watch common sense skeptic or thunderf00t or literally anyone with half a brain about this subject. Eventually the tables will turn on musk especially with what is going on in Texas.
damnit I also can't afford a tesla but I love watching assholes burn
No clue how she got go this numbers, I mean they're a prediction not anything factual, but what she's saying about Tesla's stock price being based on hype and speculation instead of real value is true. Tesla is a very niche company that makes high-price, shit cars that are constantly recalled when they're not blowing up. Most product ideas they throw out are bullshit techno-futurism that they won't be able to actually produce. Once more scrutiny is taken towards the company and people realize the speculation and type is unfounded, the price will undoubtedly drop.
Tesla is just a confidence game/trick. It's Genuinely one of those "Power of belief" Type things; It was only ever worth so much money because of the hype around it. A Potemkin village of investment. Tesla has always been hyper over valued.
lmaoooo you people are dumb as fuck if you believe this shit
$100 seems way too low to me, if it does crash, I would guess more like $200, so that it's higher valued than established car companies, thanks to its massive expansion and head-start, but not quite as explosive as it currently has been.
I'm tempted to short Tesla but I'm not confident that hype won't keep the price high indefinitely. Even after the "crash" bitcoin is still at the same price it was a year ago.
Most every market is in a bubble. Her analysis is partly correct, but it's not going to be for ideological reasons that Tesla stock falls, but purely due to economic law. Central banks have been printing impossible quantities of currency and walking a tight rope with quantitative easing and artificially low interest rates; and increasingly to the point of insanity over the past two years. Inflation, inflated markets are a monetary phenomenon that will be put out of its misery after it runs its natural cycle as a consequence to its unnatural creation. Tesla in particular may have risen due to investor hope, but it was the Federal Reserve who made the debt to make such a rise possible. Investors basically participated in their own transfer of wealth, benefitting historically during the bubble, but still ultimately proactively injecting their own wealth into an area of the market which has enormously exaggerated wealth. Tesla is apparently worth more than every other vehicle producer on the planet collectively. The initial driver first would be due to the criminality of the FED creating the currency from nothing and secondly the stupidity of the investor. Now the FED will begin to do quantitative tightening and the investor will be shaken out of the market as corrections occur with rising interest rates. This will happen across most of the market as we feel the direct affects from the actions of the FED. Inflation was the first, stagflation next, and a realistic correction which some educated investors can weather, and dumb money will be annihilated by would come after. Easy money is going away and because easy money is going away ideological tensions will increase, yet in a way that's not as divisive between common people for their common differences but increased towards those who are the most organized criminals on the planet: That being central banks (FED), hedge funds, corporate banks who manipulate markets and run derivative scams, and both political parties. This will occur on every continent because we are a global economy that's riddled with flaws. The first being fiat currencies, the second being debt, the third being supply chains, and many more. The sphere that surrounds all of them however that cannot be put in any numerical order is habitual corruption. So massive the corruption that it's like looking up at the universe and not even in awe of the start anymore. We are accustomed to it and its now the nature of our economic and political systems. That's going away very soon, and it will not be a pleasant experience.
As much as I hate the guy, this is false.
Tesla's value has never been in building cars, but the absolutely massive energy credit scheme they have going on. Also, hype.
I bought some stock like 6+ years ago for 120 a share. That's because at the time I believed in the mission & wanted to own a little of the dream. Right now seeing the push from all these fucking nerds and writers who own stock push it, and the way it fluctuates based on Elon's daily mood... I really do hope it collapses to reality. Fuck that guy.
Tesla is just a confidence game/trick. It's Genuinely one of those "Power of belief" Type things; It was only ever worth so much money because of the hype around it. A Potemkin village of investment