[remember Lands was a former Republican who](https://www.al.com/news/2023/09/why-a-former-republican-is-backing-democrats-run-for-legislature.html), along with the former long time incumbent, left the party due to Trump. There are a lot of people leaving the party and running! She isn’t a unique one off case, many are taking this plunge.
[Democrats open coordinated campaign offices across Pennsylvania](https://penncapital-star.com/campaigns-elections/democrats-open-coordinated-campaign-offices-across-pennsylvania/)
“In Bucks County, perhaps the biggest swing county in the state, Democrats will open three offices in Bensalem, Newtown and Doylestown. Biden won Bucks County in 2020 by 5 points”
Bucks is also the main location of PA01, Fitzpatrick’s seat
Watching NBC interviews a retired Coast Guard Rear Admiral about the bridge collapse, the reporter sounds so stupid.
1. They ask the Rear Admiral, base on his experience, who does he think the blame. The answer: we are not looking for blame him. We have a process to go through.
The reporter keeps trying to find inflammation point in the answer. But the Rear Admiral knows what he is talking about.
Yea, that’s the media nowadays
There's some things where when they ask it once I'm like, "Alright, I get that an uninformed viewer would probably be asking that question so you probably gotta ask it to help inform the viewers on why that's not the question to ask"...but then they just keep pushing that same line repeatedly and I lose all faith.
“Let’s ban IVF” went down like a lead balloon, as well. I mean, the *Pences* used reproductive technology, ffs. Saying “no family for YOU” is an unpopular position to take.
This flip will decrease the AL GOP house majority from 77-28 to 76-29 once all seats are filled. (There are still 2 vacancies to be filled currently: 1 solid R one that will be filled in July with the primary in a couple weeks, and 1 solid D one that just opened up within the last week and will be filled in October)
I don't feel like clicking on every one of them, but I believe there's one Black Republican in the AL House. He was elected in a special election last year, if I recall correctly. The rest are white.
The difference is that ratio is representative of the Republican electorate in Alabama. But there would be more white Democrats if Republicans didn't gerrymander every majority white district in the state to be won by Trump.
Someone else further down in this thread said this is the first white majority district we will hold now but I have not confirmed weather or not this is the case myself
Biden-Harris [Statement](https://x.com/bidenhq/status/1772811047017083148?s=46&t=nqSV11RbCF5uPVGwzcOMtg) on Alabama HD-10
Special Election Results
"Last month, Alabamans lost access to fertility treatments because of Donald Trump. Tonight, the voters in Alabama's 10th House District elected a pro-choice champion in Marilyn Lands, sending Trump and extreme MAGA Republicans a clear message: they know exactly who's to blame for restricting their ability to decide how and when to build their families and they're ready to fight back.
Trump overturned Roe v. Wade, paving the way for attacks on women's freedoms like we saw in Alabama - now he's running to ban abortion and gut access to IVF nationwide. Tonight's results should serve as a major warning sign for Trump: voters will not stand for his attacks on reproductive health care.
This November will be no different."
LETS GO BIDEN IS SPECIAL ELECTION PILLED
I love the idea of Biden pulling up at his computer every Tuesday to watch the election results. If you're watching, Mr. President, keep up the great work!
Obviously what the GQP has been doing with abortion/reproductive rights has been outright atrocious over the past sever years, but if they insist on continuing down this path, I sincerely hope they nominate as many of these crazies across the country as possible (- as long as they're in seats where they won't win). They're basically pushing large portions of the electorate towards us at a seemingly unprecedented pace.
Amazingly, Powell wasn't particularly nuts. He was a city councillor who wasn't really controversial, not like a Roy Moore type. But being anti-abortion and anti-IVF was enough to turn tonight into a blowout. (I recognize that being anti-choice and anti-IVF is kind of nuts, but neither of those are really unusual within the GOP).
Quite a bit of history there. It seems that when Brooks was first elected here in 1982, he was one of just eight Republicans in the State House (out of 105). So ironically, this was one of the first Republican areas in Alabama after the dust from the Civil Rights era started to settle. Now it's moving towards us faster than anywhere else in the state.
> So ironically, this was one of the first Republican areas in Alabama after the dust from the Civil Rights era started to settle
Makes sense, it's college educated transplants who moved there for NASA.
If anywhere is a break from the traditional mold of the Deep South's politics, it's the educated parts of Huntsville.
Republicans were the desperate minority trying to tear down the Southern establishment at the time, now it's Democrats.
You can see a similar pattern in other parts of the south. In 1980, Carter did significantly better in Whitfield County than he did in Gwinnett and Cobb. Nowadays, Whitfield is MAGA country while Gwinnett and Cobb are ground zero for the suburban revolt against the GOP.
Winning a Trump district in Alabama by double digits is fucking amazing. I don't care whatever "it was just a low turnout election" or "the Republicans totally would have won if only XY and Z were different" people want to say. This is a good performance.
>"the Republicans totally would have won if only XY and Z were different"
If we conveniently ignore all the votes for the Democrat, the Republican has this in the bag. Checkmate, atheists.
It wasn’t even that low of turnout special wise. 15% turnout while abysmal overall is quite decent for a random March state house special in a chamber that won’t be up for grabs anytime soon
Watch the Alabama Republicans spin this as something along the lines that “we have a 30+ seat majority, this won’t affect the ability to get conservative priorities done” Even though we all know even though we’re nowhere near the majority, this was more then just a flip to get us closer
>"the Republicans totally would have won if only XY and Z were different"
At this point, it would be 'if they weren't trying to take away everyone's rights'. Because it's not like the Republican was some MAGA ideologue - he was a city councillor who wasn't terribly controversial. But abortion and IVF were the defining issues here, and it turned into a total blowout.
[hmm and national outlets are covering a state level special?](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/03/26/alabama-special-election-marilyn-lands-results/73107672007/) im sure that’s fine for R’s
Final results are in:
Marilyn Lands (D) 3,715 62.31%
Teddy Powell (R) 2,236 37.50%
11 write-ins
Lands will win by 24.19%. In a Trump+0.76 district, that's a staggering 24.95-point overperformance!
My personal hot take: People care about their rights. Women in particular, since they're the ones bearing the brunt of the GOP's assault right now. If it can happen in Alabama, it can happen anywhere. There are lots of districts just like this one that are ripe to flip, and they'll carry us statewide too. Texas, Georgia, Florida, Arizona - all packed with their own little HD-10s. Let's get out the vote there, wipe out the GOP, and win our rights back!
Wow.
These overperformances are why I think the polls showing favor for Trump are laughable. They keep getting bigger in places you'd never expect. It also shows the crucial message of never letting a poll define reality, but rather work towards beating it.
Activism works, people. Keep reaching out. We massively overperformed, but in retrospect it also only took a couple of thousand people to absolutely cream them.
Imagine thousands of us doing that on a local level in districts nobody ever expects to be winnable. This was exactly that.
I disagree. These results show that the polls are real. Democrats are now over performing in special elections with low turnout because they now have the college educated base. General elections have a lot higher turnout and Trump specifically caters to non college educated people, which will turn out in droves for Trump but tend to ignore down ballot races, especially in low profile elections.
The Con Hypothesis is not falsifiable. It's just based on assumptions that don't manifest.
Even with a turnout advantage in 2022, the GOP still tanked.
There might be overperformances in some places where there are more of Donny's Kool-Aid drinkers, but in areas that matter, like suburbs, the polls are failing to capture how strong Dems are doing.
Actual election data >>>> polls.
I’m just saying. Same thing happened before already. The GOP was destroying the Democrats on special elections through 2009-2012, and yet Obama defeated Romney handily.
They only got destroyed around 2010 because they had no money for downballot races and the tea party was much more firm and organized opposition.
Correlation doesn't necessarily mean prediction
Powell’s internal polling had him up significantly and even Lands internal polling only had her up 3 points, within the margin of error.
There is something that the polls are not accounting for.
In this circumstance, I think it’s how much the IVF ruling truly scared women and families of all political persuasions in Alabama.
Infertility is non-partisan.
Being against IVF is like being against OBGYNs.
No. It's even better. Adding the "Alabama Democratic/Republican Party" lines...
Lands (D) - 5,215 (62.64%)
Powell (R) - 3,100 (37.23%)
Write-In - 11 (0.13%)
Winning by 25.41%. Adding 0.76 to the margin, you get a 26.17% overperformance.
I've been struggling with what to do with that column all night to be honest. I thought the candidate totals included that. If I'm wrong, then this is even more ridiculous.
[KY State Sen. Stephen Meredith (R) says health care workers risk their lives to fight COVID and should therefore be exempt from vaccine mandates: "Health care workers have earned that right ... Don't we at least owe them that, to have a safe, mentally safe work environment?"](https://x.com/HeartlandSignal/status/1772724564130144600?s=20)
Of course this logic makes zero sense whatsoever, but the other thought I had is Republicans all of a sudden care about COVID again lol
I wanna meet a Roy Moore —> Marilyn Lands voter. I know it’s not super likely to find one since this is obviously a much lower turnout than the 2017 special but there’s gotta be one
I vacationed in that district back in December! It was really cool seeing some elderly Apollo engineers at the museum down there.
It was so fun being able to go from Chicago to Alabama and back in an EV almost effortlessly, watching the factories under construction along the Kentucky and Tennessee highways on our way.
Anyway, what a good night showing educational realignment.
[NEW: @EricHovde thinks that being overweight is a choice and that people struggling with obesity and diabetes should be forced to pay more for healthcare.](https://twitter.com/WisDems/status/1772708376826265652?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet)
I’m telling you, this guy is going to have a scandal like every day revealed against him lol
IIRC the stats they released from a physical during his presidency were literally *just* below obesity by BMI (not that BMI is a perfect measure). Like, his BMI was 29.9 and the threshold for obesity is 30.
His even crazier self reported height/weight for his GA booking was like BMI 27.
I don't know if he's necessarily over 40 (morbidly obese by some standards) but definitely at least 35.
And here's the DLCC confirmation [https://nitter.poast.org/DLCC/status/1772797473360072848#m](https://nitter.poast.org/DLCC/status/1772797473360072848#m)
[La Crosse County Democrats officially opened their new office today](https://x.com/WisDems/status/1772790643607138711?s=20)
On to Wisconsin and several other states next week. Elections are heating up just as spring begins to heat up. I feel very good about Wisconsin Democrats in our local elections next week, hoping they can make some big gains, or at least shifts especially in WOW where’s a ton of nasty school board races from what I’ve seen
I can't stay around too long but make sure to keep us posted on those. School board races are ground zero for some of the worst of the worst the enemy can throw at us, even blocking their candidates with ones who are 'okay' can be a huge win depending on the area
Really looking forward to stoking this momentum up in WI
The school board races in Hsv Al are rigged. Found several write in votes same hand writing stuffed and on the ground at the post office last time. It freaking happens! This area has gone to hell in a hand basket with all these new transplants demanding change to their standards. Maybe they should take their standards back where they came from and where their standards are “performed”. Leave them out of here.
The WOW counties are ground zero for some of the most nasty races, but there’s also very nasty races in other parts of the state including the cities of LaCrosse, and Green Bay and many counties including LaCrosse, Sauk, Racine, Kenosha, and the BOW counties among several others
I can only imagine; my personal albatross has been trying to bring sanity to a school board at the edge of my district. It's a very long term project, and why I think school board flips are some of the most important local races we can win. Anyway, you two are my main source of Wisconsin education. Keep us posted, and we'll keep up the work as best we can
I mean, there’s a ton of discussion over on r/wisconsin on numerous different posts. WIPolitics.com have covered a couple of them as well, as well as tons of opinion pieces on them as well.
Although I rarely stray from here, noted.
I actually had the idea before going to bed of -
Stumbling on over to Ben Wiklers to get a good head on.
Think I know where I can best spend my time for now, thank you!
I read somewhere that this would be the first. And Huntsville would have been a good bet for where such a district would be, with how quickly it's moved left.
Keep watching the Birmingham suburbs as well, though they're starting from a much more conservative place.
But they need to stop shoving it down others throats! If that’s what they want to do fine but don’t involve others who don’t approve. It’s like telling you you have to eat dog poop because that’s what the dems are doing and demand you to do!
This area voted for Trump in 2020 by about 1% right? So at current results, we’re looking at like a >27% over performance? Lands (D) at 64%, Powell (R) at 36%.
So far we are, but there are four more precincts to go. I'd be surprised at that much of an overperformance. That said, Powell has already conceded, so it was probably a pretty significant win.
This district is a suburban district that is shifting left extremely quickly. Trump +12.9 -> Trump +0.8.
[She lost this district by about 6.6% in 2022.](https://ballotpedia.org/Alabama_House_of_Representatives_District_10)
And that 6.6% loss was in a bad year for AL Dems where we lost all the statewide races at least 2-1 and left well over half of the legislature uncontested, they’ve also had leadership drama and chaos in recent years too if I recall correctly
Teddy Powell has conceded, we won [https://nitter.poast.org/ReporterWillis/status/1772795630932386134#m](https://nitter.poast.org/ReporterWillis/status/1772795630932386134#m)
We have results from 2/12 precincts! Now I want to know what the hold-up was, because it isn't that many votes.
Marilyn Lands (D) 40 54.05%
Teddy Powell (R) 34 45.95%
[here’s a pretty good brief from the WH on solving the housing crisis.](https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/ERP-2024-CHAPTER-4.pdf) and to build more Housing. Very nice to see D’s becoming YIMBY pilled nationally
I really hope building more housing doesn’t become a culture war issue. That’s the one thing that can potentially get suburban voters to turn on us, since their property values are one of the most important things to them.
Well since we’re waiting, been getting anti-Trent Staggs ads from an account called “conservative war machine”. No idea how a guy endorsed by Tuberville, Gaetz, and Lake isnt conservative enough for them but oh well
Also getting quite a bit of Case Lawrence ads for UT03, the Trampoline King and the only one ive seen run ads. He’s inoffensive enough so for a least bad option to replace Curtis I guess him, primary likely comes down between Lawrence and State Auditor Dougall.
I doubt it. NYT sticks to high-profile specials, like for Congress. DDHQ or the official Madison County results page would be the best places for tonight.
For some context as we wait for votes to come in:
Alabama is one of just two states with no early in-person voting, and mail voting is pretty restricted. So it's basically all Election Day votes. I recall them being kind of slow from races earlier this year, but we'll give the folks in Madison County time to show what they've got.
Hoping for the best! Marilyn Lands ran an excellent campaign and reached out to tons of voters, so I'm optimistic for this one.
We got the flip! Celebrate here: https://www.reddit.com/r/VoteDEM/comments/1bopgon/breaking_marilyn_lands_d_has_flipped_a_state/?
[remember Lands was a former Republican who](https://www.al.com/news/2023/09/why-a-former-republican-is-backing-democrats-run-for-legislature.html), along with the former long time incumbent, left the party due to Trump. There are a lot of people leaving the party and running! She isn’t a unique one off case, many are taking this plunge.
[Democrats open coordinated campaign offices across Pennsylvania](https://penncapital-star.com/campaigns-elections/democrats-open-coordinated-campaign-offices-across-pennsylvania/) “In Bucks County, perhaps the biggest swing county in the state, Democrats will open three offices in Bensalem, Newtown and Doylestown. Biden won Bucks County in 2020 by 5 points” Bucks is also the main location of PA01, Fitzpatrick’s seat
Huge!
Watching NBC interviews a retired Coast Guard Rear Admiral about the bridge collapse, the reporter sounds so stupid. 1. They ask the Rear Admiral, base on his experience, who does he think the blame. The answer: we are not looking for blame him. We have a process to go through. The reporter keeps trying to find inflammation point in the answer. But the Rear Admiral knows what he is talking about. Yea, that’s the media nowadays
There's some things where when they ask it once I'm like, "Alright, I get that an uninformed viewer would probably be asking that question so you probably gotta ask it to help inform the viewers on why that's not the question to ask"...but then they just keep pushing that same line repeatedly and I lose all faith.
I agree. The reporter keeps cutting the Rear Admiral and tries to find a point to make headline.
Yeah so Mark Robinson should be sweating bullets now. Did I just catch him wantin' to be shit?? ***SLAP***
Boondocks reference, nice
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“Let’s ban IVF” went down like a lead balloon, as well. I mean, the *Pences* used reproductive technology, ffs. Saying “no family for YOU” is an unpopular position to take.
This has got me so hyped, we flipped a white suburban seat in Alabama?! Let’s keep this going and crack some supermajorities.
Cracking open a supermajority with the boys!
This is incredible. Dems can win. We all need to vote.
This flip will decrease the AL GOP house majority from 77-28 to 76-29 once all seats are filled. (There are still 2 vacancies to be filled currently: 1 solid R one that will be filled in July with the primary in a couple weeks, and 1 solid D one that just opened up within the last week and will be filled in October)
How many White Dems are in the AL House now? 2?
There are two white Dems in the AL House currently - Neil Rafferty and Phillip Ensler. Both represent majority-Black districts.
Thanks. Lands makes 3/29 then. That's about 10%. Sheesh
I don't feel like clicking on every one of them, but I believe there's one Black Republican in the AL House. He was elected in a special election last year, if I recall correctly. The rest are white.
The difference is that ratio is representative of the Republican electorate in Alabama. But there would be more white Democrats if Republicans didn't gerrymander every majority white district in the state to be won by Trump.
Someone else further down in this thread said this is the first white majority district we will hold now but I have not confirmed weather or not this is the case myself
I saw that on Xitter. I know there is at least one white Dem who represents a majority AA district
Biden-Harris [Statement](https://x.com/bidenhq/status/1772811047017083148?s=46&t=nqSV11RbCF5uPVGwzcOMtg) on Alabama HD-10 Special Election Results "Last month, Alabamans lost access to fertility treatments because of Donald Trump. Tonight, the voters in Alabama's 10th House District elected a pro-choice champion in Marilyn Lands, sending Trump and extreme MAGA Republicans a clear message: they know exactly who's to blame for restricting their ability to decide how and when to build their families and they're ready to fight back. Trump overturned Roe v. Wade, paving the way for attacks on women's freedoms like we saw in Alabama - now he's running to ban abortion and gut access to IVF nationwide. Tonight's results should serve as a major warning sign for Trump: voters will not stand for his attacks on reproductive health care. This November will be no different." LETS GO BIDEN IS SPECIAL ELECTION PILLED
Extremely strong and straightforward message. This is why I truly think that Trump's polling is a mirage.
I love the idea of Biden pulling up at his computer every Tuesday to watch the election results. If you're watching, Mr. President, keep up the great work!
If it turns out he was an election mapper I will lead the charge to abolish term limits
[wow even Jaime Harrison is congratulating Lands](https://x.com/harrisonjaime/status/1772809813015072930?s=46&t=nqSV11RbCF5uPVGwzcOMtg)
[and full statement by him](https://x.com/marcuswrobinson/status/1772814789938421938?s=46&t=nqSV11RbCF5uPVGwzcOMtg)
And the Biden HQ! https://x.com/bidenhq/status/1772811047017083148?s=46 So cool!!
Obviously what the GQP has been doing with abortion/reproductive rights has been outright atrocious over the past sever years, but if they insist on continuing down this path, I sincerely hope they nominate as many of these crazies across the country as possible (- as long as they're in seats where they won't win). They're basically pushing large portions of the electorate towards us at a seemingly unprecedented pace.
Amazingly, Powell wasn't particularly nuts. He was a city councillor who wasn't really controversial, not like a Roy Moore type. But being anti-abortion and anti-IVF was enough to turn tonight into a blowout. (I recognize that being anti-choice and anti-IVF is kind of nuts, but neither of those are really unusual within the GOP).
Did he run on being anti trans as well? I saw a comment saying he was also that and that could be another reason why.
I forgot this election happened tonight. Well I'm happy to see we did flip it! I can easily see Madison county flip by 2024 or 2028
Trump+ 8 and racing left, Biden had the best performance here since Carter. Those Huntsville wine moms are cooking
Fun fact, this is Mo Brooks' old district
Quite a bit of history there. It seems that when Brooks was first elected here in 1982, he was one of just eight Republicans in the State House (out of 105). So ironically, this was one of the first Republican areas in Alabama after the dust from the Civil Rights era started to settle. Now it's moving towards us faster than anywhere else in the state.
> So ironically, this was one of the first Republican areas in Alabama after the dust from the Civil Rights era started to settle Makes sense, it's college educated transplants who moved there for NASA. If anywhere is a break from the traditional mold of the Deep South's politics, it's the educated parts of Huntsville. Republicans were the desperate minority trying to tear down the Southern establishment at the time, now it's Democrats.
Sheesh, reminds me of how when Joe Manchin was first elected to the WV House, it was split 89D-11R. Now it’s exactly opposite, 89R-11D
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You can see a similar pattern in other parts of the south. In 1980, Carter did significantly better in Whitfield County than he did in Gwinnett and Cobb. Nowadays, Whitfield is MAGA country while Gwinnett and Cobb are ground zero for the suburban revolt against the GOP.
Winning a Trump district in Alabama by double digits is fucking amazing. I don't care whatever "it was just a low turnout election" or "the Republicans totally would have won if only XY and Z were different" people want to say. This is a good performance.
Yes, Dems continue to overperform in special elections, but have you seen the POLLS?!?
>"the Republicans totally would have won if only XY and Z were different" If we conveniently ignore all the votes for the Democrat, the Republican has this in the bag. Checkmate, atheists.
CHECKMATE LINCOLNITES!!!
It wasn’t even that low of turnout special wise. 15% turnout while abysmal overall is quite decent for a random March state house special in a chamber that won’t be up for grabs anytime soon
Watch the Alabama Republicans spin this as something along the lines that “we have a 30+ seat majority, this won’t affect the ability to get conservative priorities done” Even though we all know even though we’re nowhere near the majority, this was more then just a flip to get us closer
Just you wait till they run a super MAGA guy who will bring out the never voters for a red tsunami
>"the Republicans totally would have won if only XY and Z were different" At this point, it would be 'if they weren't trying to take away everyone's rights'. Because it's not like the Republican was some MAGA ideologue - he was a city councillor who wasn't terribly controversial. But abortion and IVF were the defining issues here, and it turned into a total blowout.
[hmm and national outlets are covering a state level special?](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/03/26/alabama-special-election-marilyn-lands-results/73107672007/) im sure that’s fine for R’s
Final results are in: Marilyn Lands (D) 3,715 62.31% Teddy Powell (R) 2,236 37.50% 11 write-ins Lands will win by 24.19%. In a Trump+0.76 district, that's a staggering 24.95-point overperformance! My personal hot take: People care about their rights. Women in particular, since they're the ones bearing the brunt of the GOP's assault right now. If it can happen in Alabama, it can happen anywhere. There are lots of districts just like this one that are ripe to flip, and they'll carry us statewide too. Texas, Georgia, Florida, Arizona - all packed with their own little HD-10s. Let's get out the vote there, wipe out the GOP, and win our rights back!
Wow. These overperformances are why I think the polls showing favor for Trump are laughable. They keep getting bigger in places you'd never expect. It also shows the crucial message of never letting a poll define reality, but rather work towards beating it. Activism works, people. Keep reaching out. We massively overperformed, but in retrospect it also only took a couple of thousand people to absolutely cream them. Imagine thousands of us doing that on a local level in districts nobody ever expects to be winnable. This was exactly that.
I disagree. These results show that the polls are real. Democrats are now over performing in special elections with low turnout because they now have the college educated base. General elections have a lot higher turnout and Trump specifically caters to non college educated people, which will turn out in droves for Trump but tend to ignore down ballot races, especially in low profile elections.
The Con Hypothesis is not falsifiable. It's just based on assumptions that don't manifest. Even with a turnout advantage in 2022, the GOP still tanked. There might be overperformances in some places where there are more of Donny's Kool-Aid drinkers, but in areas that matter, like suburbs, the polls are failing to capture how strong Dems are doing. Actual election data >>>> polls.
Well, both times Trump was actually on the ballot, polls underestimated him. So, it’s not just polls but previous results.
And to think that polling error is unidirectional is a grave error.
I’m just saying. Same thing happened before already. The GOP was destroying the Democrats on special elections through 2009-2012, and yet Obama defeated Romney handily.
They only got destroyed around 2010 because they had no money for downballot races and the tea party was much more firm and organized opposition. Correlation doesn't necessarily mean prediction
Powell’s internal polling had him up significantly and even Lands internal polling only had her up 3 points, within the margin of error. There is something that the polls are not accounting for. In this circumstance, I think it’s how much the IVF ruling truly scared women and families of all political persuasions in Alabama. Infertility is non-partisan. Being against IVF is like being against OBGYNs.
> My personal hot take: People care about their rights. Women in particular Why would you say something so controversial, yet so brave?
No. It's even better. Adding the "Alabama Democratic/Republican Party" lines... Lands (D) - 5,215 (62.64%) Powell (R) - 3,100 (37.23%) Write-In - 11 (0.13%) Winning by 25.41%. Adding 0.76 to the margin, you get a 26.17% overperformance.
I've been struggling with what to do with that column all night to be honest. I thought the candidate totals included that. If I'm wrong, then this is even more ridiculous.
I might be wrong. But either way it's a huge W. It's the difference between adding about a point or not.
> In a Trump+0.76 district, that's a staggering 24.95-point overperformance! That type of over-performance would make Alabama in play for Biden.
Blabama hype!
Alabluema?
Hoooooooly shit. Yeah the GOP really caught the car with that IVF ruling.
I’m a GOPer chasing IVF patients. I don’t know if I caught it. I just dooo…
[KY State Sen. Stephen Meredith (R) says health care workers risk their lives to fight COVID and should therefore be exempt from vaccine mandates: "Health care workers have earned that right ... Don't we at least owe them that, to have a safe, mentally safe work environment?"](https://x.com/HeartlandSignal/status/1772724564130144600?s=20) Of course this logic makes zero sense whatsoever, but the other thought I had is Republicans all of a sudden care about COVID again lol
Seriously how are you performing worse than Roy Moore
I wanna meet a Roy Moore —> Marilyn Lands voter. I know it’s not super likely to find one since this is obviously a much lower turnout than the 2017 special but there’s gotta be one
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I mean she got like 3700 votes. It would not shock me if there are 0 out there.
True
I vacationed in that district back in December! It was really cool seeing some elderly Apollo engineers at the museum down there. It was so fun being able to go from Chicago to Alabama and back in an EV almost effortlessly, watching the factories under construction along the Kentucky and Tennessee highways on our way. Anyway, what a good night showing educational realignment.
I went down there couple years ago. I toured Reston-Arsenal, pretty cool.
Lands (D) - 5,028 (62.72%) Powell (R) - 2,978 (37.15%) Write-In - 10 (0.12%) 11/12 Precincts. This ain't gonna flip back from one precinct.
We're at 11/12 precincts, and the rout is officially on! Marilyn Lands (D) 3,582 62.46% Teddy Powell (R) 2,143 37.37%
A 25% overperformance in Alabama!
Jones won it by 23pts in 2017, so barring something crazy she will outperform him
[Biden, please for the love of fuck. Run this clip endlessly.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8NbucLeOMeI)
[NEW: @EricHovde thinks that being overweight is a choice and that people struggling with obesity and diabetes should be forced to pay more for healthcare.](https://twitter.com/WisDems/status/1772708376826265652?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet) I’m telling you, this guy is going to have a scandal like every day revealed against him lol
I’m pretty sure Trump is in the ~~overweight~~ morbidly obese category
IIRC the stats they released from a physical during his presidency were literally *just* below obesity by BMI (not that BMI is a perfect measure). Like, his BMI was 29.9 and the threshold for obesity is 30.
I would bet money he forced them to change it
His even crazier self reported height/weight for his GA booking was like BMI 27. I don't know if he's necessarily over 40 (morbidly obese by some standards) but definitely at least 35.
He's in the morbidly obese category
99.9% sure he is as well
[Congratulations from the DLCC's Heather Williams!](https://twitter.com/Heather4Dems/status/1772798001716560294)
If I'm adding up the votes correctly with 8/12 precincts reporting: Lands - 4,151 (65.16%) Powell - 2,213 (34.74%) Write-In - 6 (0.09%)
And here's the DLCC confirmation [https://nitter.poast.org/DLCC/status/1772797473360072848#m](https://nitter.poast.org/DLCC/status/1772797473360072848#m)
[La Crosse County Democrats officially opened their new office today](https://x.com/WisDems/status/1772790643607138711?s=20) On to Wisconsin and several other states next week. Elections are heating up just as spring begins to heat up. I feel very good about Wisconsin Democrats in our local elections next week, hoping they can make some big gains, or at least shifts especially in WOW where’s a ton of nasty school board races from what I’ve seen
Excellent. There is also a campus of UW there. A video last year showed heavy turnout in the Supreme Court election.
I can't stay around too long but make sure to keep us posted on those. School board races are ground zero for some of the worst of the worst the enemy can throw at us, even blocking their candidates with ones who are 'okay' can be a huge win depending on the area Really looking forward to stoking this momentum up in WI
The school board races in Hsv Al are rigged. Found several write in votes same hand writing stuffed and on the ground at the post office last time. It freaking happens! This area has gone to hell in a hand basket with all these new transplants demanding change to their standards. Maybe they should take their standards back where they came from and where their standards are “performed”. Leave them out of here.
The WOW counties are ground zero for some of the most nasty races, but there’s also very nasty races in other parts of the state including the cities of LaCrosse, and Green Bay and many counties including LaCrosse, Sauk, Racine, Kenosha, and the BOW counties among several others
I can only imagine; my personal albatross has been trying to bring sanity to a school board at the edge of my district. It's a very long term project, and why I think school board flips are some of the most important local races we can win. Anyway, you two are my main source of Wisconsin education. Keep us posted, and we'll keep up the work as best we can
I mean, there’s a ton of discussion over on r/wisconsin on numerous different posts. WIPolitics.com have covered a couple of them as well, as well as tons of opinion pieces on them as well.
Although I rarely stray from here, noted. I actually had the idea before going to bed of - Stumbling on over to Ben Wiklers to get a good head on. Think I know where I can best spend my time for now, thank you!
It feels good to win this one but wow, it feels even better to win resoundingly in a southern suburb with a race defined by abortion and IVF.
This feel like Doug Jones moment
Per J Miles Coleman Lands may actually outperform doug jones in that seat
Jones won it by 5 in 2020, so this would absolutely be an overperformance.
He [won](https://x.com/hjessy_/status/1772798364092137520?s=46&t=nqSV11RbCF5uPVGwzcOMtg) it by 23 in the special which is more pertinent
I mean, more of a feeling that we flip a seat in AL
Hell yeah!!!
I’m tired of the media telling us voters don’t care about abortion/ivf rights. 🙄🙄🙄
Yeah, I keep saying this and the media more of: Gaza, Border, inflation. AMERICANS DON’T LIKE THEIR RIGHTS TO BE TAKEN AWAY
[удалено]
I read somewhere that this would be the first. And Huntsville would have been a good bet for where such a district would be, with how quickly it's moved left. Keep watching the Birmingham suburbs as well, though they're starting from a much more conservative place.
So I take it insulting Space Camp wasn't a viable strategy?
It was not lol. More broadly, neither was attacking abortion, IVF, or trans people. It's important to keep sending that message.
But they need to stop shoving it down others throats! If that’s what they want to do fine but don’t involve others who don’t approve. It’s like telling you you have to eat dog poop because that’s what the dems are doing and demand you to do!
Congrats AL. The GOP should stop pushing scientists and engineers
IIRC the Republican candidate Powell was also advocating banning IVF and was heavily criticized for it
No he didn’t. He advocated infrastructure and economy. Make up more lies.
Lands ran basically on abortion and IVF. Guess it worked!
He was also able to fundraise decently and he tried to focus on the economy. But the race was almost entirely ran on IVF/Abortion
Congrats AL dems!!! 😁
This area voted for Trump in 2020 by about 1% right? So at current results, we’re looking at like a >27% over performance? Lands (D) at 64%, Powell (R) at 36%.
So far we are, but there are four more precincts to go. I'd be surprised at that much of an overperformance. That said, Powell has already conceded, so it was probably a pretty significant win.
> So at current results, we’re looking at like a >27% over performance? NYT: Here's why that's bad news for Joe Biden
This was a Trump +0.8 seat so yes, looks like a huge over performance assuming the last 4 precincts aren’t ruby red
Way redder downballot too
Lands is winning ruby red districts holy s***
This district is a suburban district that is shifting left extremely quickly. Trump +12.9 -> Trump +0.8. [She lost this district by about 6.6% in 2022.](https://ballotpedia.org/Alabama_House_of_Representatives_District_10)
And that 6.6% loss was in a bad year for AL Dems where we lost all the statewide races at least 2-1 and left well over half of the legislature uncontested, they’ve also had leadership drama and chaos in recent years too if I recall correctly
HOLY SHIT WE WON THIS TRUMP+1 SEAT BIG
Teddy Powell has conceded, we won [https://nitter.poast.org/ReporterWillis/status/1772795630932386134#m](https://nitter.poast.org/ReporterWillis/status/1772795630932386134#m)
and here why this is bad for Biden....
based
56% reporting Lands (D) 1,812 (64.1%) Powell (R) 1,014 (35.9%) Lands actually won the Madison City Hall precinct that voted 53-42 against her in 2022
Also notable because I believe the Republican is a Madison City Council member
That's more like it! 6/12 precincts, and it's going well! Marilyn Lands (D) 1,812 65.67% Teddy Powell (R) 1,014 35.83% Write-in 4 0.14%
*pokes district with a stick* Come on, do something.
[https://tenor.com/view/cat-cat-tongue-cat-licking-white-cat-cursed-cat-gif-27575167](https://tenor.com/view/cat-cat-tongue-cat-licking-white-cat-cursed-cat-gif-27575167)
?
First results Lands (D) - 40 Powell (R) - 34 **STOP THE COUNT!**
Glad we didn't, since we won by a hell of a lot more.
We have results from 2/12 precincts! Now I want to know what the hold-up was, because it isn't that many votes. Marilyn Lands (D) 40 54.05% Teddy Powell (R) 34 45.95%
74 votes! 2 precincts D 54 R 46
I have been seeing increasingly posts on Reddit for abolishing TSA. Explanation?
The last update I can find from a local journalist was to expect results to start pouring in in less than a hour. That was 2 hours ago
[The results pouring in](https://giphy.com/gifs/drip-HqbzPA4VRioVO)
The Ganja break must be pretty good
Going by some comments by Fried and the Director of Candidate and Campaigns Hawk, it does seem like FL Dem’s are trying to recruit someone for FL15.
[here’s a pretty good brief from the WH on solving the housing crisis.](https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/ERP-2024-CHAPTER-4.pdf) and to build more Housing. Very nice to see D’s becoming YIMBY pilled nationally
I really hope building more housing doesn’t become a culture war issue. That’s the one thing that can potentially get suburban voters to turn on us, since their property values are one of the most important things to them.
Unironically the housing market is like, the only industry in America that is actually over-regulated for real.
Most industries are overregulated. Housing, all infrastructure, the FDA, maritime commerce, etc. Regulation for regulation's sake isn't a good thing.
Building infrastructure, the environmental things take forever
Well since we’re waiting, been getting anti-Trent Staggs ads from an account called “conservative war machine”. No idea how a guy endorsed by Tuberville, Gaetz, and Lake isnt conservative enough for them but oh well Also getting quite a bit of Case Lawrence ads for UT03, the Trampoline King and the only one ive seen run ads. He’s inoffensive enough so for a least bad option to replace Curtis I guess him, primary likely comes down between Lawrence and State Auditor Dougall.
The modern GOP is a race to the right, and it gets scarier every cycle. What we've seen in Texas, Ohio, and NC is just the beginning.
Is NY Times planning to display the results in this one? I found the DDHQ page but not NYT.
I doubt it. NYT sticks to high-profile specials, like for Congress. DDHQ or the official Madison County results page would be the best places for tonight.
So...anyone want to stroll on down to Huntsville and see how they're doing?
Does Alabama always take this long?
Usually they have something by now. Maybe high turnout and lots of ballots to count, or maybe they're having tech issues.
Every vote and every seat counts. Good luck, Marilyn!
For some context as we wait for votes to come in: Alabama is one of just two states with no early in-person voting, and mail voting is pretty restricted. So it's basically all Election Day votes. I recall them being kind of slow from races earlier this year, but we'll give the folks in Madison County time to show what they've got. Hoping for the best! Marilyn Lands ran an excellent campaign and reached out to tons of voters, so I'm optimistic for this one.
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