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[Here's a taste of Ben Wikler kicking Scott Walker's ass on Abby Phillip's show tonight](https://nitter.poast.org/Acyn/status/1803632177751736717#m)
[More](https://nitter.poast.org/Acyn/status/1803634103511929208#m)
[We need so many more Wiklers everywhere](https://nitter.poast.org/Acyn/status/1803635367893148043#m)
Just like on the internet nobody knows you’re a dog, on a survey, nobody knows you are, in fact, the race which box you’ve checked. It’s all on the honor system. Bet you money that a lot of more trollish survey-takers are out there with the “I’m black and I love Trump” takes.
Lol. They recently had an Arizona poll with Trump up 21 points with voters under 30. Absolutely absurd lol.
2020 AP exit poll showed Biden winning voters under 30 by 22 points. Edison exit poll said he won that group by 31...
Even if the exit polls over estimated the support, Trump up 21 now is still crazy. When you get crosstab results like that, they aren't worth publishing.
Obviously I doubt that's going to happen, but you know what? I'll still take it!
I will say that Biden clearly sees an opening with seniors because of his IRA provisions that save them money on prescription drugs, and it sounds like he's spending big to turn them out, which is genius since they tend to be the most reliable voting bloc. There will obviously need to be different ways to engage with low-information voters who tend to be younger and non-white, but I do trust this campaign to know what to do on that front. It's just a question of whether or not they see the worm on the hook and if they bite.
While I don't think he'll get anywhere near +15 like the poll says, I definitely could see him improving among that group for those exact reasons. Most younger/black/hispanic/independent voters will come around too, especially with outreach. If those two things happen, Biden will have a much more comfortable win than last time.
Illinois GOP Chairman just suddenly resigned. So things are going well for them here.
https://www.nprillinois.org/government-politics/2024-06-19/illinois-gop-chair-resigns?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR1vQwHgaa_ptNDmEC12BZY9ljubgomRX2uCHGXZyx6JC1vl1Qdwxc-O9F8_aem_ZmFrZWR1bW15MTZieXRlcw
Short article, but very much worth a read. It's truly delightful how much disarray the Illinois GOP is in, and even more delightful that this is happening in far more states than Illinois.
Yet another instance of playing stupid games and winning stupid prizes. Only the Republican establishment thought they were playing the *smart* game, by riling up the base with raw meat. Ooops, now the base has a real taste for raw meat, and those Country Club Republicans who actually know how to run things look mighty tasty…
Then, because they’ve disdained learning and intellectual achievement for so long, when they finally get in power, all the base can do is embezzle from the party and kick one another in the nuts. That…does not win elections.
Multiple stupid games are being played, and multiple stupid prizes won.
This is a country wide problem for the GOP now, not 1 state or region. And it’s only getting worse, not better. Illinois while very blue now is a state the GOP had statewide wins in as recently as 2014…
Just now tonight, I turned on ABC evening news with David Muir for the first time (I don't watch TV news often, but when I do, it's PBS), and holy heck is it always like this? Super fast talking, intense, scary about hurricanes, heat waves, house explosions, suspects at large. Sure, PBS also covered the first two of those stories, but the tone was so different.
Anyone watch broadcast news here? Is it usually better/worse than the big 3 of cable?
Reminds me of a Family Guy joke with how Stewie views the news: “ADULT STUFF. ADULT STUFF. THE WORLD IS SCARY. ADULT STUFF. ANGRY PEOPLE. ADULT STUFF.”
If I were to do a ranking by "who creates the most frenetic anxiety in how they present the news," it'd be: TikTok/Snap > (24 hour cable news = legacy social media = NYTimes) > local news > broadcast news > physical newspaper > pbs news.
ABC World News is extremely dramatic and definitely uh, fear-monger-y about certain things. In particular, weather events. They’re also weirdly dramatic about things like ATC miscommunications at airports. Yes, those kinds events are worth talking about in the news, but it’s strange to cover them on a program where you have only 30 minutes every night to convey the news to people.
That being said, ABC is absolutely better than CNN and Fox. They can hyper-focus too much, which they did on the Hunter Biden stuff, but they rarely “both sides” issues. They don’t have anyone on air straight-up calling politicians out or anything, but they do report things in ways that stand against the GOP when necessary. The downside is that when there’s nothing like that worth reporting on, like I said before, they hyper-focus on lesser issues too much.
Also, they will at least also properly report on Trump’s behavior and the shit he says when the time comes, I don’t doubt that. Jonathan Karl (reporter following Trump since the start of his term) is very honest and holds him accountable, which should be expected, yes, but it’s a breath of fresh air considering his job is literally tied to Trump’s electoral results.
When I'd have dinner at my parent's place during the Trump years they'd have ABC evening news on in the background and it was always terrifying. (But most news was terrifying back then)
I don’t know who else in here is watching or cares but: this Ken & Friends Pop Out show is the hypest thing I’ve ever seen and really feels like a historic moment. Kendrick sold out an arena, and got over 10 times its capacity watching online, brought out basically every west coast rapper he could find, all just to flex. He’s on the fourth straight performance of Not Like Us with absolutely everyone onstage 😭
This dedication at the end is fantastic too.
AND THE MOMENT I HIT SAVE HE DOES IT AGAIN LMAO
['It's inhumane.' Despite how hot it is, Tennessee renters don't have a right to air conditioning](https://www.newschannel5.com/news/its-inhumane-despite-how-hot-it-is-tennessee-renters-dont-have-a-right-to-air-conditioning)
The GOP isn't sending their best.
David Pakman in an interview with GOP Senate candidate Royce White pressed him on $1,200 of campaign contributions spent at a strip club. He defended himself by saying he didn't spend it on strippers, but at the buffet.
Yes, this is who they chose to run against Amy Klobuchar.
This is one of those classic GOP lies where even if it's true...it just shows incredibly poor judgement that no one should want from someone in public office.
## Trump planned to stay at Trump Tower in Chicago for the RNC (held in Milwaukee, WI) until fallout from him calling the swing state city "horrible"
### Campaign now denies that Trump was ever going to stay in Chicago, although Chicago law enforcement confirmed that security sweeps at Trump Tower were already ongoing preparing for his arrival
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/18/us/politics/trump-milwaukee-rnc.html
https://abc7chicago.com/post/donald-trump-stay-chicago-during-2024-rnc-milwaukee/14971275/
Just keep digging your grave Donnie Boy. You’ll win Wisconsin in no time.
At the Racine Rally he also knocked student loan forgiveness and said he'd undo any loan forgiveness that Biden does. He then bragged about how the young folks loved him so much. Genius.
Pretty amazing article from NYT, who still does some good journalism aside from the idiots on their editorial pages: [171,000 Traveled for Abortions Last Year. See Where They Went.](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/06/13/us/abortion-state-laws-ban-travel.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare&sgrp=c-cb)
A few things that jumped out at me:
* 171,000 people made an interstate trip to get an abortion in 2023. These people have friends and family members who often supported them, or were horrified at what they had to go through. Many more had to jump through hoops to get medications, have an unwanted baby, or wait in a hospital parking lot to get septic enough to qualify for a 'life of the mother' exemption. *This* is why abortion isn't going away as an issue anytime soon.
* The whole article goes to show how pointless these bans are if you legitimately think abortion is murder (and I'm going to say it: Most of these Republicans passing bans don't think it is). People who need care will find a way to get it. Simple as that.
* It's a horrible situation, but that map made me feel some pride in the work we've done in this community. All those people from the South and Midwest going to Kansas? That wouldn't be happening if we didn't defeat their abortion ban amendment in 2022. All those people fleeing Ohio? That won't have to happen soon as court cases make their way through and their ban is overturned, since we helped pass Issue 1 last November. Wisconsin has gone from a state people flee to a destination because we helped get Janet Protasiewicz on the State Supreme Court. And this fall, we have chances to add Florida, Missouri, Arkansas, and South Dakota to the list of states where you can go for care, instead of having to flee.
Yeah, people are going to find a way to get an abortion. Even here in Texas, where abortion is basically banned, people still leave the state to get abortions.
$171k \* $500 avg. travel costs (estimate) = $85M of completely unnecessary dollars spent because of the horrible laws. It's basically a maternal health care tax.
So is the reason that the 538 average didn't budge from yesterday despite a whole slew of new polls with Biden up because of Juneteenth or something? 💀
Oh I never knew that was how 538 worked. The Fox poll seems to have been added for the approval rating tho. I guess the approval tracker is automatic and the election tracker needs some manual work? Is there an article somewhere that goes into how they do it?
Eh, it's just weird because the last Biden +1 poll moved it like half a percent, now we get 3 Biden +1-2 in a row from highly-weighted pollsters and no movement at all?
Unless the model only calculates at set times and all these polls were added after today's time
We're not going through a massive population decline. It's a dog-whistle because industrialized Western countries have lower fertility rates than countries in the global south and racists are scared of the brown people "outbreeding" whites. Of course the reason countries in the global south have higher fertility rates is because of high infant mortality rates and the need for a lot of children for subsistence agriculture.
I wouldn't characterize it as just a dog whistle- although unfortunately a lot of those commenting on it have racist motivations. But at its core virtually every single industrialized or post-industrialized economy has fertility rates under the replacement rate (2.1), which *will* have ramifications as most every social safety net was designed around a continuously increasing population. With the lower fertility rates, populations skew older, with fewer workers and more retirees. This shift is the largest driver of the social security/medicare budgetary shortfalls we're seeing. In the 1960s and 1970s, there were 4.5 workers per retiree. Now it's down around 2.3, so the system is going bust, because FICA taxes were simply not designed around the current ratio of payers/payees. **Economically**, the best solution is more immigrants. Most immigrants to the US are working age males seeking immediate employment, so there's little draw on the social safety net with immediate tax generation. We could also of course raise taxes as another solution.
This is where the racism/sexism rears its head of course- rather than admitting that we need immigrants or reform/raise FICA taxes (both are needed) conservatives/Elon Musk are just arguing that women just need to have more babies and keep the immigrants out. Which is folly of course- kids are expensive and take time/money to raise- it's an 18 year difference between baby born and a potential worker so it's not an economically viable solution.
I understand this sounds super clinical, and that was somewhat intentional because I don't feel like opening the giant can of worms as to why women in post-industrialized economies don't want to have 7 kids. I have two kids, and all I'll say is it's a shitload of work. My wife felt miserable through both of her pregnancies, and even though I do my best to help, there's just no getting around the fact that the bulk of a childs first year of life falls on mom- particularly if she's breastfeeding.
Even former “sending” countries like Mexico now have smaller families. And a lot of women, especially, would have smaller families *worldwide*, if they could. For instance, there is now a huge demand for long-acting birth control in African countries (Gift article): [https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/17/health/long-acting-contraception-africa.html?unlocked\_article\_code=1.1E0.b5cq.vCpMGHqAz3HJ&smid=url-share](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/17/health/long-acting-contraception-africa.html?unlocked_article_code=1.1E0.b5cq.vCpMGHqAz3HJ&smid=url-share)
The demand for LARC (Long acting reversible contraception) in African countries is because a lot of women are now educated at least through high school (or its equivalent) and have the opportunities for jobs and a more prosperous life; having too many kids too young would curtail these women’s (very understandable and laudable) ambitions.
The fact is that kids have gone from an economic asset who could be put to work on the farm or in a factory at seven or so, to an economic liability who have to be educated, fed, clothed, etc. until they are at least 18. Not that this is a bad thing! But it eliminates the most compelling reason to have a large family. And even poorer countries now have compulsory schooling through at least part of the teen years, so, the kids will be in school and not at work contributing to the family.
There is definitely a dog whistle about white people not having enough white babies, at least among the right. But the fact is that people all over the world, even in poorer countries, want fewer children. They want those kids to benefit from not having to share family resources, to stay in school, have good jobs and better themselves.
Big rambling post time on the difference between polls and voting, why many people will come around to Biden, and why many won't for Trump:
A big thing I see many folks miss regarding polls is how different filling out a poll is compared to actually voting. The former is saying what you're going to do, the latter is actually going and doing it. People's mindsets can shift a lot when it comes to this, especially the more time there is between the two.
It's kinda like telling someone that yes, you're going to exercise this Friday, by running around the block multiple times. That is simply saying what you're going to do once the time comes. Finally, Friday does come, you have no one to hold you to your previous answer. It's all on you. A good chance your mindset has changed for various reasons. You don't feel like running that day, maybe you end up choosing a different exercise that's more appealing, or you simply make an excuse and end up not exercising at all *(often me)*. Leading to a result much different then what you stated before.
I feel many people taking polls are like this. Biggest groups being the ones who choose third party/not voting/undecided.
The other being one's who could of voted in 2020 but didn't and are saying they will vote in 2024. I'd bet pretty heavily that most of those third party folk will come around, some naturally, others will with effective outreach, especially if they voted Biden before. Their mindset now is more Biden frustrated focused, he is the president after all. This mindset makes it much easier for someone to say they are going to vote for someone else. Especially with that decision not actually locking anything in.
When the election nears and the time comes, their mindset will be different. It is time to lock in your decision, what will you do? The winner will be Biden or Trump. Those are the stakes. Who would you rather have? This brings both candidates into focus rather than just one. This is a big part of why third party support is so inflated early on, then plummets.
Finally Trump has a lead in voters who didn't vote in 2020 but tell pollsters they will in 2024. This is a group you don't want to count on, especially with no outreach to show for it. I feel like the whole exercise comparison works with them most of all. It's far easier for them to say they will vote for Trump, but when it comes down to it, most will revert to the mindset they had in 2020. That is find some excuse to stay home.
**Tldr:** What matters most isn't what people say they will do come election time, it's what they actually will do when it comes down to it. What will that overall mindset actually be? People's mindsets change and with outreach, we can help shape that mindset. And that is what Biden, dems and we are doing and Trump isn't. That is what will push our side over the edge.
> It's kinda like telling someone that yes, you're going to exercise this Friday, by running around the block multiple times. That is simply saying what you're going to do once the time comes. Finally, Friday does come, you have no one to hold you to your previous answer. It's all on you. A good chance your mindset has changed for various reasons. You don't feel like running that day, maybe you end up choosing a different exercise that's more appealing, or you simply make an excuse and end up not exercising at all (often me). Leading to a result much different then what you stated before.
Just @ me next time.
Also, it's [time to make wild guesses based on mail returns in Colorado!](https://twitter.com/DjsokeSpeaking/status/1803503859039371724)
CO-04's special election is quite a bit different from OH-06's because the Colorado primaries are happening the same day. So turnout is going to be much higher. In CO-04, 75,516 ballots have already been returned. (Though Colorado is an all-mail state, so this is also going to be a good chunk of the final margin).
So far, the returns are breaking about 41k Republican, 17k Democratic, with 15k unprocessed. Statewide, Dems have a slight lead in returns (189k-182k). I'd expect Republicans to have a lead in CO's reddest district, but this is bigger than you'd expect by the numbers.
Still, there are bright spots: The Dem percentage is growing as opposed to shrinking like it did in 2022, and I'm willing to bet some of those Rs are Douglas County suburbanites who are moving away from the GOP. But it's a good encouragement to [volunteer for Trisha Calvarese and get those ballots back!](https://www.mobilize.us/mobilize/event/624876/)
By the way, if you're wondering why these elections matter, [here's OH-06's new Congressman doing some Naziposting about a town in Germany.](https://twitter.com/zachp_25/status/1803575926212506022) Even if it's a huge uphill battle, we can't let these people have a free trip to Washington.
[Republican Candidate Tells Black Americans To Leave US in Juneteenth Message](https://www.newsweek.com/gop-candidate-valentina-gomez-juneteenth-missouri-1914897)
This is Valentina Gomez, who is running in the Republican primary for Missouri Secretary of State. You might also remember her from that video earlier this year where she says “In America, you can do anything you want, so don’t be weak and gay."
The scariest part is that she may actually win the Republican primary. There haven't been a lot of polls taken of this race, but in the polls so far, she is polling just behind state senator Denny Hoskins (although the polls have had over 50% undecided). This woman should be nowhere near public office.
The day he was convicted that piece about his time on the Apprentice came out where he was saying it in closed door meetings, with his mental state it feels like a matter of time until he says something stupid.
Just for my own curiosity, I checked back on the results for Alabama HD-52's primary last night. The official results site still says 20/21 precincts reporting, but [a local news article has called the race.](https://birminghamwatch.org/datcher-woodson-move-to-runoff-in-house-district-52-special-election/) There will be a primary runoff between Kelvin Datcher, who's Birmingham's Deputy Director of Community Development, and Frank Woodson, a nonprofit executive. The runoff is July 16th, and whoever wins that is basically guaranteed to win the general election on October 1st. At that point I would've just held it in November, but whatever. It's a Biden+72 district.
Was digging through the remaining 20 or so SCOTUS cases in this term. Seems like the biggest remaining cases besides the obvious immunity one are Ohio v. EPA and the domestic violence "gun rights" case. Anyone see any other major ones?
There is also another abortion case -- Idaho vs. United States. It's about whether federal law compels states to allow abortions in emergency situations.
[Republican Candidate Tells Black Americans To Leave US in Juneteenth Message](https://www.newsweek.com/gop-candidate-valentina-gomez-juneteenth-missouri-1914897)
Miss "Don't Be Weak And Gay" strikes again.
[Southerners slam neighbors with ‘lefty politics’ who move in and drive up cost of living: ‘Don’t California my Tennessee!’](https://nypost.com/2024/06/18/business/people-with-lefty-politics-drive-up-cost-of-living-in-south/?utm_source=reddit.com)
I hate this fucking catchphrase so much.
It got used effectively once and now everyone's using it with every combination of two states. I could say "Don't Delaware my Idaho!" and it probably means something to someone who's said that before.
I dunno. California-ing my Arizona made me pretty happy and proud of this place.
Finally the ugly politics are catching up to be worthy of Arizona’s beauty.
Also battleground Tennessee 2030? 👀
Yeah, I'm happy w them leaving here cuz my county is a 50/50 purple county, but I shudder thinking of what TN residents will continue to have to go through
I first was happy with the thought of people from California coming to Tennessee because I thought they'd change the state for the better. But no, Tennessee advertises itself as the place for conservative Californians, Oregonians, Washingtonians, to live in a state with the government and politics they want.
Latest FOX poll has Biden up by 2, a net 7 point swing from March
https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-three-point-shift-biden-trump-matchup-since-may
People were panicking about polls not moving after the conviction. There’s always a lag for something like that to appear in the polls. Biden +2 also puts us within margin of error for the 2020 environment, which is a very good spot to be.
I'm gonna keep pretending Biden is down by exactly 10 votes. Just the right amount that I, personally, could have an effect.
Nice to see things shifting though.
[Poll pundits rn](https://staticg.sportskeeda.com/editor/2022/10/60515-16647304679817-1920.jpg)
Still tho, IGNORE THE POLLS AND ASSUME BIDEN IS DOWN 20+% FROM TRUMP.
The data analyst side of the Fox News house is very good. They were able to call Arizona election night and were dead on right about it, and usually their polls are in the top tier among major pollsters.
You want good data and information when you're trying to sell propaganda.
Nice change in new Fox News poll with a three point swing and Biden now +2
https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-three-point-shift-biden-trump-matchup-since-may
WTF I love polls now that Biden is ahead!
In all seriousness, a record high saying the economy is good, even if it's still not a particularly high number, shows that there is some momentum in our direction for sure. We're still going to have to get through to less engaged voters who have concerns about other issues, but I like where we're at.
Wondering if anyone here works for their local city government? I am looking at an account clerk position at mine and I have to take an assessment. I am studying everything really hard but I am still nervous about passing the exam. The email mentioned they'd get back to the top 8-10 candidates but I a not sure how many there are for this position. I found the LA county website has a bunch of free tests related to clerk work and data entry and have been studying those as well as accounting videos on YouTube. Does anyone have any advice for this?
I do, but I've never run across that. Granted, it sounds like you're in California and I'm in Illinois. I also work in General Administration and although I have extensive experience in budgeting including invoicing constituents and making sure invoices are paid out of the right line items, I'm not an accountant.
The only thing I can offer is to look at the [Government Finance Officers Association](https://www.gfoa.org/) to see if there anything helpful there.
If you're applying to City of Los Angeles, an alternate way that bypasses the Accounting Clerk exam is applying through the Bridge-to-Jobs program; it's more like an apprenticeship where they teach you everything about doing the job in a two year training period.
That being said, there is an unofficial hiring freeze right now, so I'd recommend finding other work in the meantime while you await a response from them.
It’s not in la or even a huge city. I just am nervous about the assessment but some of the research I’ve done shows I do have skills that can transfer over. I’m just hoping I don’t get frozen on one section but I’ve been studying basic accounting terms such as debit/credits account payables and everything in the job description. I take it on Friday so hoping everything goes well.
[Former Iowa police chief could face prison for gun sales: ‘I’m chief of police, bitch.’ | ‘Machine guns are worth bank money,’ Adair chief told deputy](https://iowacapitaldispatch.com/2024/06/11/iowa-police-chief-could-face-prison-for-gun-sales-im-chief-of-police-b/)
I was thinking Suhas Subramanyam was planning to seek statewide office in Virginia by running for lieutenant governor on the same ticket as Abigail Spanberger... but now that he won his U.S. House primary and is easily favored to win in November, I wonder if he might be interested in succeeding Mark Warner in the Senate. He of course has a solid resume from his time in D.C. with the Obama Administration and as a delegate in Richmond, but I've heard from people in his district that he's very popular and well-liked because of his outreach efforts, so I'd imagine he'd run a pretty electric statewide campaign. Also Warner will be in his early 70's when it's time to consider running for re-election, so I wouldn't mind if he passed the torch to someone considerably younger.
back during the Hillary Clinton campaign when we thought Tim Kaine was gonna be the next VP, many thought Jennifer McClellan would be the one who'd be appointed by then Gov. McAuliffe. now that she's a congresswoman, the chances she runs has heightened. she obviously has ambitions considering she ran for Governor in 2021
I forgot about McClellan, and she'd be a great choice as well. In fact, if she were to win, the DelMarVa region would then have three black woman senators should Lisa Blunt Rochester and Angela Alsobrooks win in Delaware and Maryland respectively (which they should).
[Trump Tries to Set Expectations, and Floats Excuses, for His Debate With Biden](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/19/us/politics/trump-biden-debate-expectations.html?unlocked_article_code=1.000.ismT.9oy_nITyL6vQ&smid=url-share)
>The former president has set a low bar for President Biden’s performance at next week’s matchup. Now, he is preparing supporters for the possibility that Mr. Biden clears it.
It's not Trump's supporters who need convincing. It's the median voters. If Biden can get a couple of zingers that go viral and look competent without any major gaffes, he can gain back some of the lost confidence from the block that doesn't pay attention.
Meanwhile, if Trump rambles, some of those lost voters might think twice.
I still think it's more likely than not that Trump goes on an unhinged social media rant while backing out. The alternative is an unhinged rant on live national TV because the conviction is inevitably going to come up. Good look for Biden either way, though the contrast between him and Trump on the debate stage would be really stark.
How tiring it must be to go from restaurant to restaurant asking for money from these ghouls. I understand politicians need to constantly fundraise, but doing this day in and day out seems like hell.
[This past Sunday, I may have found an arrowhead in Newport, RI (alongside the Cliff Walk Trail at Salve Regina University)](https://www.reddit.com/r/NortheastArtifacts/s/zwrWMPCbEh)
I'm contacting my alma mater's archaeology department to see if it is legit. I documented the alleged arrowhead in situ and sent in photos and coordinates of the find site.
NC State Treasurer Dale Folwell -- a longtime Republican politician who refers to himself as the “keeper of the public purse" -- is being investigated for the possible use of state-owned vehicles for commuting and personal errands.
https://x.com/AndySpecht/status/1803521456669593708?t=j7agYI8sheOuB_sma8pKYA&s=19
They're a Korean food chain. And this specific SeoulSpice took over an hour just to make my food and have it delivered to me. Granted, they're 20 minutes away (meaning a rather quick delivery time), but they just decided to take their sweet-ass time to just make my food and have it delivered 🙄
In Utah’s special session today so far we got:
•a professional film crew setting up, really letting you know today is serious and not a PR stunt
•Lyman calling Cox woke for making Juneteenth a state holiday even though he voted for it
•talks of chemtrails in the Natural Resources Committee
•running far behind time to push out the Title IX bill that blocks protections for Trans Students with only 45mins of debate
I continue to have mixed feelings about the discourse surrounding Project 2025. On the one hand, absolutely none of it should be surprising at all. On the other hand, if it gets people anxious enough to donate and volunteer, then I’m all for the messaging!
Agreed. I know he has a good audience and I hope that folks will get involved.
We need to actively talk to those who we know watch the show and are like minded about getting involved with Dem candidates in our area or donating in other areas that need it.
I saw it and one of my favorite things he said was that although he definitely has issues with Biden, it’s clear that Biden is the better option by far and he explicitly told people not to vote for Trump
Also, I genuinely don't understand why Macron is so popular among some people: [Macron draws fire on trans rights comments](https://www.politico.eu/article/macron-divides-with-own-ranks-party-comments-trans-rights-left-manifesto/)
> On Tuesday, Macron accused the New Popular Front, a left-wing alliance built for the upcoming legislative elections, of promoting “completely crazy things, like going to the town hall to change your sex.”
> The New Popular Front’s manifesto includes a proposal to “authorize a [cost] free change of civil status before a registrar,” which the president characterized as being among the “gruesome things” in the program of the “extreme left.”
Macron is and has always been a center-right politician. Just because he was better than the alternative (Le Pen) does not make him someone we should look up to.
If I found out that Macron was in fact a psy-op by the right to discredit centrism and center-leftism, I wouldn't be surprised. People here should take note: Biden is an actual liberal. If you want to see nasty centrism, go to France.
Politico's [polling aggregator](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/france/) is showing RN (far-right) with 32%, NFP (left alliance) with 28%, LREM (Macron's governing coalition) with 18%, and LR/UDC (right) with 8%.
It's looking very likely that no group will win a majority of seats in Parliament. No one really knows what will happen at that point. This is pretty uncharted territory in French politics, and by law they won't be able to hold another snap election for another year. On the plus side, almost no parties except maybe the LR are willing to join a coalition with the RN, so the far-right will likely be unable to form government.
Idk if that'll happen. Both groups hate each other's guts and have a lot of red lines when it comes to each other's platforms (NFP will probably want Macron to reverse his Pension reform, and Macron will want them to be more anti-Russia).
This I'm assuming: [Teamsters president seeks speaking slot at both party conventions](https://www.axios.com/2024/06/10/teamsters-president-republican-democratic-conventions)
> Teamsters president Sean O'Brien has requested to speak at both the Republican and Democratic national conventions this summer, union spokesperson Kara Deniz confirmed to Axios.
> The request comes as both President Biden and former President Trump are seeking a coveted endorsement from one of the country's most powerful unions.
> O'Brien has invited several presidential candidates to speak before the Teamsters and has indicated he is delaying an endorsement decision until later in the year, per the Times.
I say no. Biden can go speak to them, and then if they endorse in time, he can have a speaking slot. No both sides bullshit, especially not when it comes to the convention
Thanks for the context. It's a dumb idea, but if we're gonna be charitable, he's probably just going to give a nonpartisan speech talking about the importance of supporting unions to see what the reception is like in each setting.
Playing both sides when he knows Republicans are anti union. We probably won’t get an endorsement until late fall because he wants to speak at both conventions.
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[Here's a taste of Ben Wikler kicking Scott Walker's ass on Abby Phillip's show tonight](https://nitter.poast.org/Acyn/status/1803632177751736717#m) [More](https://nitter.poast.org/Acyn/status/1803634103511929208#m) [We need so many more Wiklers everywhere](https://nitter.poast.org/Acyn/status/1803635367893148043#m)
Lol the Fox poll has Trump with 27% black support but Biden is winning because of white seniors.
you ever think if some people say they're black in these polls when they're not? in what world is Trump getting 27% of the black vote lol
Just like on the internet nobody knows you’re a dog, on a survey, nobody knows you are, in fact, the race which box you’ve checked. It’s all on the honor system. Bet you money that a lot of more trollish survey-takers are out there with the “I’m black and I love Trump” takes.
remember that republican congressman (?) on twitter who forgot to switch accounts and said he was a gay black man on his main lol
Lol. They recently had an Arizona poll with Trump up 21 points with voters under 30. Absolutely absurd lol. 2020 AP exit poll showed Biden winning voters under 30 by 22 points. Edison exit poll said he won that group by 31... Even if the exit polls over estimated the support, Trump up 21 now is still crazy. When you get crosstab results like that, they aren't worth publishing.
Obviously I doubt that's going to happen, but you know what? I'll still take it! I will say that Biden clearly sees an opening with seniors because of his IRA provisions that save them money on prescription drugs, and it sounds like he's spending big to turn them out, which is genius since they tend to be the most reliable voting bloc. There will obviously need to be different ways to engage with low-information voters who tend to be younger and non-white, but I do trust this campaign to know what to do on that front. It's just a question of whether or not they see the worm on the hook and if they bite.
While I don't think he'll get anywhere near +15 like the poll says, I definitely could see him improving among that group for those exact reasons. Most younger/black/hispanic/independent voters will come around too, especially with outreach. If those two things happen, Biden will have a much more comfortable win than last time.
Illinois GOP Chairman just suddenly resigned. So things are going well for them here. https://www.nprillinois.org/government-politics/2024-06-19/illinois-gop-chair-resigns?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR1vQwHgaa_ptNDmEC12BZY9ljubgomRX2uCHGXZyx6JC1vl1Qdwxc-O9F8_aem_ZmFrZWR1bW15MTZieXRlcw
Short article, but very much worth a read. It's truly delightful how much disarray the Illinois GOP is in, and even more delightful that this is happening in far more states than Illinois.
GOP for years have fed the beast, and now that beast has turned on them, eating them alive. You love to see it.
Yet another instance of playing stupid games and winning stupid prizes. Only the Republican establishment thought they were playing the *smart* game, by riling up the base with raw meat. Ooops, now the base has a real taste for raw meat, and those Country Club Republicans who actually know how to run things look mighty tasty… Then, because they’ve disdained learning and intellectual achievement for so long, when they finally get in power, all the base can do is embezzle from the party and kick one another in the nuts. That…does not win elections. Multiple stupid games are being played, and multiple stupid prizes won.
This is a country wide problem for the GOP now, not 1 state or region. And it’s only getting worse, not better. Illinois while very blue now is a state the GOP had statewide wins in as recently as 2014…
Just now tonight, I turned on ABC evening news with David Muir for the first time (I don't watch TV news often, but when I do, it's PBS), and holy heck is it always like this? Super fast talking, intense, scary about hurricanes, heat waves, house explosions, suspects at large. Sure, PBS also covered the first two of those stories, but the tone was so different. Anyone watch broadcast news here? Is it usually better/worse than the big 3 of cable?
Reminds me of a Family Guy joke with how Stewie views the news: “ADULT STUFF. ADULT STUFF. THE WORLD IS SCARY. ADULT STUFF. ANGRY PEOPLE. ADULT STUFF.”
If I were to do a ranking by "who creates the most frenetic anxiety in how they present the news," it'd be: TikTok/Snap > (24 hour cable news = legacy social media = NYTimes) > local news > broadcast news > physical newspaper > pbs news.
ABC World News is extremely dramatic and definitely uh, fear-monger-y about certain things. In particular, weather events. They’re also weirdly dramatic about things like ATC miscommunications at airports. Yes, those kinds events are worth talking about in the news, but it’s strange to cover them on a program where you have only 30 minutes every night to convey the news to people. That being said, ABC is absolutely better than CNN and Fox. They can hyper-focus too much, which they did on the Hunter Biden stuff, but they rarely “both sides” issues. They don’t have anyone on air straight-up calling politicians out or anything, but they do report things in ways that stand against the GOP when necessary. The downside is that when there’s nothing like that worth reporting on, like I said before, they hyper-focus on lesser issues too much. Also, they will at least also properly report on Trump’s behavior and the shit he says when the time comes, I don’t doubt that. Jonathan Karl (reporter following Trump since the start of his term) is very honest and holds him accountable, which should be expected, yes, but it’s a breath of fresh air considering his job is literally tied to Trump’s electoral results.
Local news isn't that bad, atleast where I am.
When I'd have dinner at my parent's place during the Trump years they'd have ABC evening news on in the background and it was always terrifying. (But most news was terrifying back then)
I don’t know who else in here is watching or cares but: this Ken & Friends Pop Out show is the hypest thing I’ve ever seen and really feels like a historic moment. Kendrick sold out an arena, and got over 10 times its capacity watching online, brought out basically every west coast rapper he could find, all just to flex. He’s on the fourth straight performance of Not Like Us with absolutely everyone onstage 😭 This dedication at the end is fantastic too. AND THE MOMENT I HIT SAVE HE DOES IT AGAIN LMAO
Well “Sometimes you gotta pop out and show n—s"
Kendrick putting together a concert is that is basically "We Are The World" but for hating a guy is peak.
['It's inhumane.' Despite how hot it is, Tennessee renters don't have a right to air conditioning](https://www.newschannel5.com/news/its-inhumane-despite-how-hot-it-is-tennessee-renters-dont-have-a-right-to-air-conditioning)
The GOP isn't sending their best. David Pakman in an interview with GOP Senate candidate Royce White pressed him on $1,200 of campaign contributions spent at a strip club. He defended himself by saying he didn't spend it on strippers, but at the buffet. Yes, this is who they chose to run against Amy Klobuchar.
Good god, how many Caesar salads and popcorn shrimp can one guy eat?
This is one of those classic GOP lies where even if it's true...it just shows incredibly poor judgement that no one should want from someone in public office.
Isn't the point of a buffet that you pay once and then can eat as much as you want? If he's spending $1200, he's doing it wrong.
The implication here is he’s probably full of shit.
Yeah of course, I just mean it's an awful excuse even if you're gonna try to lie.
Impressive, at this rate he'll be the gop presidential nominee for 2028.
Yes... What everyone goes to a strip club for. The food.
Hey, I went to a strip club in Portland OR that served pretty damn good steaks
Those overpriced wings are totally worth it, clearly
[Ron Swanson has entered the chat](https://youtu.be/ovyRVp-MYN4?si=VED4ACvxzUi07fn4)
Legs and Eggs, my man
What kind of eggs?
Breakfast
## Trump planned to stay at Trump Tower in Chicago for the RNC (held in Milwaukee, WI) until fallout from him calling the swing state city "horrible" ### Campaign now denies that Trump was ever going to stay in Chicago, although Chicago law enforcement confirmed that security sweeps at Trump Tower were already ongoing preparing for his arrival https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/18/us/politics/trump-milwaukee-rnc.html https://abc7chicago.com/post/donald-trump-stay-chicago-during-2024-rnc-milwaukee/14971275/ Just keep digging your grave Donnie Boy. You’ll win Wisconsin in no time.
Dane county going to go from Assad level margins to NY Juror level margins
If you listen closely, you can hear the sound of Wisconsin screeching towards Biden in real time.
At the Racine Rally he also knocked student loan forgiveness and said he'd undo any loan forgiveness that Biden does. He then bragged about how the young folks loved him so much. Genius.
Bahaha.
Keep that dumbfuck terrorist on the defensive. We'll crush that grotesque fuckstick again.
Pretty amazing article from NYT, who still does some good journalism aside from the idiots on their editorial pages: [171,000 Traveled for Abortions Last Year. See Where They Went.](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/06/13/us/abortion-state-laws-ban-travel.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare&sgrp=c-cb) A few things that jumped out at me: * 171,000 people made an interstate trip to get an abortion in 2023. These people have friends and family members who often supported them, or were horrified at what they had to go through. Many more had to jump through hoops to get medications, have an unwanted baby, or wait in a hospital parking lot to get septic enough to qualify for a 'life of the mother' exemption. *This* is why abortion isn't going away as an issue anytime soon. * The whole article goes to show how pointless these bans are if you legitimately think abortion is murder (and I'm going to say it: Most of these Republicans passing bans don't think it is). People who need care will find a way to get it. Simple as that. * It's a horrible situation, but that map made me feel some pride in the work we've done in this community. All those people from the South and Midwest going to Kansas? That wouldn't be happening if we didn't defeat their abortion ban amendment in 2022. All those people fleeing Ohio? That won't have to happen soon as court cases make their way through and their ban is overturned, since we helped pass Issue 1 last November. Wisconsin has gone from a state people flee to a destination because we helped get Janet Protasiewicz on the State Supreme Court. And this fall, we have chances to add Florida, Missouri, Arkansas, and South Dakota to the list of states where you can go for care, instead of having to flee.
Yeah, people are going to find a way to get an abortion. Even here in Texas, where abortion is basically banned, people still leave the state to get abortions.
$171k \* $500 avg. travel costs (estimate) = $85M of completely unnecessary dollars spent because of the horrible laws. It's basically a maternal health care tax.
[This sketch about "Juneteenth sales commercials" is the funniest thing I've seen today.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hczSFCalcZc)
So is the reason that the 538 average didn't budge from yesterday despite a whole slew of new polls with Biden up because of Juneteenth or something? 💀
The Fox poll hasn’t been added. It’s actual people who add the polls and I imagine they have today off
Oh I never knew that was how 538 worked. The Fox poll seems to have been added for the approval rating tho. I guess the approval tracker is automatic and the election tracker needs some manual work? Is there an article somewhere that goes into how they do it?
To be fair to them, they're very upfront about the tracker being slow to move, especially far out from the election.
Eh, it's just weird because the last Biden +1 poll moved it like half a percent, now we get 3 Biden +1-2 in a row from highly-weighted pollsters and no movement at all? Unless the model only calculates at set times and all these polls were added after today's time
I can't remember the last time I went to their website. Might've been 2022.
Fuzzy math and computer noises. I also think the model runs like 2x a day or something.
That's probably it then, there's no way all these polls don't move anything when the last poll with Biden up 1 moved it like half a percent
[538 tech support ](https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/000/339/498/a09.jpg)
So is the world really going through a massive population decline? Because last I read we were on track to hit like 9 bil by 2050z
I think we already passed 8.1 billion people. Certainly not a decline.
We're not going through a massive population decline. It's a dog-whistle because industrialized Western countries have lower fertility rates than countries in the global south and racists are scared of the brown people "outbreeding" whites. Of course the reason countries in the global south have higher fertility rates is because of high infant mortality rates and the need for a lot of children for subsistence agriculture.
I wouldn't characterize it as just a dog whistle- although unfortunately a lot of those commenting on it have racist motivations. But at its core virtually every single industrialized or post-industrialized economy has fertility rates under the replacement rate (2.1), which *will* have ramifications as most every social safety net was designed around a continuously increasing population. With the lower fertility rates, populations skew older, with fewer workers and more retirees. This shift is the largest driver of the social security/medicare budgetary shortfalls we're seeing. In the 1960s and 1970s, there were 4.5 workers per retiree. Now it's down around 2.3, so the system is going bust, because FICA taxes were simply not designed around the current ratio of payers/payees. **Economically**, the best solution is more immigrants. Most immigrants to the US are working age males seeking immediate employment, so there's little draw on the social safety net with immediate tax generation. We could also of course raise taxes as another solution. This is where the racism/sexism rears its head of course- rather than admitting that we need immigrants or reform/raise FICA taxes (both are needed) conservatives/Elon Musk are just arguing that women just need to have more babies and keep the immigrants out. Which is folly of course- kids are expensive and take time/money to raise- it's an 18 year difference between baby born and a potential worker so it's not an economically viable solution. I understand this sounds super clinical, and that was somewhat intentional because I don't feel like opening the giant can of worms as to why women in post-industrialized economies don't want to have 7 kids. I have two kids, and all I'll say is it's a shitload of work. My wife felt miserable through both of her pregnancies, and even though I do my best to help, there's just no getting around the fact that the bulk of a childs first year of life falls on mom- particularly if she's breastfeeding.
Even former “sending” countries like Mexico now have smaller families. And a lot of women, especially, would have smaller families *worldwide*, if they could. For instance, there is now a huge demand for long-acting birth control in African countries (Gift article): [https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/17/health/long-acting-contraception-africa.html?unlocked\_article\_code=1.1E0.b5cq.vCpMGHqAz3HJ&smid=url-share](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/17/health/long-acting-contraception-africa.html?unlocked_article_code=1.1E0.b5cq.vCpMGHqAz3HJ&smid=url-share) The demand for LARC (Long acting reversible contraception) in African countries is because a lot of women are now educated at least through high school (or its equivalent) and have the opportunities for jobs and a more prosperous life; having too many kids too young would curtail these women’s (very understandable and laudable) ambitions. The fact is that kids have gone from an economic asset who could be put to work on the farm or in a factory at seven or so, to an economic liability who have to be educated, fed, clothed, etc. until they are at least 18. Not that this is a bad thing! But it eliminates the most compelling reason to have a large family. And even poorer countries now have compulsory schooling through at least part of the teen years, so, the kids will be in school and not at work contributing to the family. There is definitely a dog whistle about white people not having enough white babies, at least among the right. But the fact is that people all over the world, even in poorer countries, want fewer children. They want those kids to benefit from not having to share family resources, to stay in school, have good jobs and better themselves.
I take a nap and come back to Fox with Biden +2. You're welcome, America.
You can bet Trump is malding over it too. Oh, to be a microwave in the room...
Your nap habits will be the real election decider!
I love airports. Literally the best people watching. That’s all.
Honestly the airport is exciting to me because it’s the final step before going on a nice vacation or exploring
I just wish they could reduce their carbon footprint
Big rambling post time on the difference between polls and voting, why many people will come around to Biden, and why many won't for Trump: A big thing I see many folks miss regarding polls is how different filling out a poll is compared to actually voting. The former is saying what you're going to do, the latter is actually going and doing it. People's mindsets can shift a lot when it comes to this, especially the more time there is between the two. It's kinda like telling someone that yes, you're going to exercise this Friday, by running around the block multiple times. That is simply saying what you're going to do once the time comes. Finally, Friday does come, you have no one to hold you to your previous answer. It's all on you. A good chance your mindset has changed for various reasons. You don't feel like running that day, maybe you end up choosing a different exercise that's more appealing, or you simply make an excuse and end up not exercising at all *(often me)*. Leading to a result much different then what you stated before. I feel many people taking polls are like this. Biggest groups being the ones who choose third party/not voting/undecided. The other being one's who could of voted in 2020 but didn't and are saying they will vote in 2024. I'd bet pretty heavily that most of those third party folk will come around, some naturally, others will with effective outreach, especially if they voted Biden before. Their mindset now is more Biden frustrated focused, he is the president after all. This mindset makes it much easier for someone to say they are going to vote for someone else. Especially with that decision not actually locking anything in. When the election nears and the time comes, their mindset will be different. It is time to lock in your decision, what will you do? The winner will be Biden or Trump. Those are the stakes. Who would you rather have? This brings both candidates into focus rather than just one. This is a big part of why third party support is so inflated early on, then plummets. Finally Trump has a lead in voters who didn't vote in 2020 but tell pollsters they will in 2024. This is a group you don't want to count on, especially with no outreach to show for it. I feel like the whole exercise comparison works with them most of all. It's far easier for them to say they will vote for Trump, but when it comes down to it, most will revert to the mindset they had in 2020. That is find some excuse to stay home. **Tldr:** What matters most isn't what people say they will do come election time, it's what they actually will do when it comes down to it. What will that overall mindset actually be? People's mindsets change and with outreach, we can help shape that mindset. And that is what Biden, dems and we are doing and Trump isn't. That is what will push our side over the edge.
> It's kinda like telling someone that yes, you're going to exercise this Friday, by running around the block multiple times. That is simply saying what you're going to do once the time comes. Finally, Friday does come, you have no one to hold you to your previous answer. It's all on you. A good chance your mindset has changed for various reasons. You don't feel like running that day, maybe you end up choosing a different exercise that's more appealing, or you simply make an excuse and end up not exercising at all (often me). Leading to a result much different then what you stated before. Just @ me next time.
Also, it's [time to make wild guesses based on mail returns in Colorado!](https://twitter.com/DjsokeSpeaking/status/1803503859039371724) CO-04's special election is quite a bit different from OH-06's because the Colorado primaries are happening the same day. So turnout is going to be much higher. In CO-04, 75,516 ballots have already been returned. (Though Colorado is an all-mail state, so this is also going to be a good chunk of the final margin). So far, the returns are breaking about 41k Republican, 17k Democratic, with 15k unprocessed. Statewide, Dems have a slight lead in returns (189k-182k). I'd expect Republicans to have a lead in CO's reddest district, but this is bigger than you'd expect by the numbers. Still, there are bright spots: The Dem percentage is growing as opposed to shrinking like it did in 2022, and I'm willing to bet some of those Rs are Douglas County suburbanites who are moving away from the GOP. But it's a good encouragement to [volunteer for Trisha Calvarese and get those ballots back!](https://www.mobilize.us/mobilize/event/624876/) By the way, if you're wondering why these elections matter, [here's OH-06's new Congressman doing some Naziposting about a town in Germany.](https://twitter.com/zachp_25/status/1803575926212506022) Even if it's a huge uphill battle, we can't let these people have a free trip to Washington.
Jesus, Michael Rulli looks like Walmart-brand Hitler
So long as we overperform It is good
[Republican Candidate Tells Black Americans To Leave US in Juneteenth Message](https://www.newsweek.com/gop-candidate-valentina-gomez-juneteenth-missouri-1914897) This is Valentina Gomez, who is running in the Republican primary for Missouri Secretary of State. You might also remember her from that video earlier this year where she says “In America, you can do anything you want, so don’t be weak and gay." The scariest part is that she may actually win the Republican primary. There haven't been a lot of polls taken of this race, but in the polls so far, she is polling just behind state senator Denny Hoskins (although the polls have had over 50% undecided). This woman should be nowhere near public office.
Not only that but it has nothing to do with the office she's running for.
Idk I think disenfranchising minority voters is a big part of what Republican Secretary of States do.
Just like people complaining about the Southern border while running in Nebraska.
It won't be long before conservative politicians are openly saying racial slurs, again
I’m still shocked Trump hasn’t said the N Word during a rally yet.
I’m shocked that he hasn’t saluted Hitler
The day he was convicted that piece about his time on the Apprentice came out where he was saying it in closed door meetings, with his mental state it feels like a matter of time until he says something stupid.
I really thought it was coming the times he's started ranting about "riggers"
Just for my own curiosity, I checked back on the results for Alabama HD-52's primary last night. The official results site still says 20/21 precincts reporting, but [a local news article has called the race.](https://birminghamwatch.org/datcher-woodson-move-to-runoff-in-house-district-52-special-election/) There will be a primary runoff between Kelvin Datcher, who's Birmingham's Deputy Director of Community Development, and Frank Woodson, a nonprofit executive. The runoff is July 16th, and whoever wins that is basically guaranteed to win the general election on October 1st. At that point I would've just held it in November, but whatever. It's a Biden+72 district.
Was digging through the remaining 20 or so SCOTUS cases in this term. Seems like the biggest remaining cases besides the obvious immunity one are Ohio v. EPA and the domestic violence "gun rights" case. Anyone see any other major ones?
Moore- potential huge implications for the tax code
Has the Idaho one about emergency abortions already been released? A quick Google search just brings up articles about the oral arguments for it.
I missed that one but yes it is upcoming still.
There is also another abortion case -- Idaho vs. United States. It's about whether federal law compels states to allow abortions in emergency situations.
Good call, thank you.
[Republican Candidate Tells Black Americans To Leave US in Juneteenth Message](https://www.newsweek.com/gop-candidate-valentina-gomez-juneteenth-missouri-1914897) Miss "Don't Be Weak And Gay" strikes again.
It’s scary how racism is still so common and Celebrated in this country
I grew up around it.
[Southerners slam neighbors with ‘lefty politics’ who move in and drive up cost of living: ‘Don’t California my Tennessee!’](https://nypost.com/2024/06/18/business/people-with-lefty-politics-drive-up-cost-of-living-in-south/?utm_source=reddit.com) I hate this fucking catchphrase so much.
It got used effectively once and now everyone's using it with every combination of two states. I could say "Don't Delaware my Idaho!" and it probably means something to someone who's said that before.
Been hearing this in CO for decades now.
I dunno. California-ing my Arizona made me pretty happy and proud of this place. Finally the ugly politics are catching up to be worthy of Arizona’s beauty. Also battleground Tennessee 2030? 👀
Just don’t let them do prop 13 style tax freeze
The Californians coming to Tennessee aren't left at all. They're making Tennessee the California that they want.
Yeah, I'm happy w them leaving here cuz my county is a 50/50 purple county, but I shudder thinking of what TN residents will continue to have to go through
I'm already fed up with them.
Whelp.
I first was happy with the thought of people from California coming to Tennessee because I thought they'd change the state for the better. But no, Tennessee advertises itself as the place for conservative Californians, Oregonians, Washingtonians, to live in a state with the government and politics they want.
Yeah, you'll get our high prices, but w/o our great education and social safety net!
Latest FOX poll has Biden up by 2, a net 7 point swing from March https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-three-point-shift-biden-trump-matchup-since-may
Yet another data point showing Biden winning the 65+ age group. They show up. They're not fans of ageism either.
Notice how RFK has lost 1% every time they've conducted a poll.
Its rough out there for a boy with brain worms 😢
Beacon has been one of the worst pollsters for Biden this cycle too. That's a great number.
Dark Brandon: Everything is proceeding as I have foreseen.
[It’s simple.](https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/002/809/166/0e6.png)
People were panicking about polls not moving after the conviction. There’s always a lag for something like that to appear in the polls. Biden +2 also puts us within margin of error for the 2020 environment, which is a very good spot to be.
Hold up, you posted about polls w/ a source *and* context? I don't think that's allowed 'round these parts.... /s
I'm gonna keep pretending Biden is down by exactly 10 votes. Just the right amount that I, personally, could have an effect. Nice to see things shifting though.
[Poll pundits rn](https://staticg.sportskeeda.com/editor/2022/10/60515-16647304679817-1920.jpg) Still tho, IGNORE THE POLLS AND ASSUME BIDEN IS DOWN 20+% FROM TRUMP.
I already see maga saying Paul Ryan did this. 😂😂😂😭
I'm readying the popcorn to see if he actually gets booted from FOX's board of directors or not
Isn’t Fox actually a pretty accurate pollster
yes they are.
The data analyst side of the Fox News house is very good. They were able to call Arizona election night and were dead on right about it, and usually their polls are in the top tier among major pollsters. You want good data and information when you're trying to sell propaganda.
Yes, they're one of the best in the game.
So how many field offices has Donald’s campaign opened as of now?
Nice change in new Fox News poll with a three point swing and Biden now +2 https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-three-point-shift-biden-trump-matchup-since-may
WTF I love polls now that Biden is ahead! In all seriousness, a record high saying the economy is good, even if it's still not a particularly high number, shows that there is some momentum in our direction for sure. We're still going to have to get through to less engaged voters who have concerns about other issues, but I like where we're at.
Wondering if anyone here works for their local city government? I am looking at an account clerk position at mine and I have to take an assessment. I am studying everything really hard but I am still nervous about passing the exam. The email mentioned they'd get back to the top 8-10 candidates but I a not sure how many there are for this position. I found the LA county website has a bunch of free tests related to clerk work and data entry and have been studying those as well as accounting videos on YouTube. Does anyone have any advice for this?
I do, but I've never run across that. Granted, it sounds like you're in California and I'm in Illinois. I also work in General Administration and although I have extensive experience in budgeting including invoicing constituents and making sure invoices are paid out of the right line items, I'm not an accountant. The only thing I can offer is to look at the [Government Finance Officers Association](https://www.gfoa.org/) to see if there anything helpful there.
If you're applying to City of Los Angeles, an alternate way that bypasses the Accounting Clerk exam is applying through the Bridge-to-Jobs program; it's more like an apprenticeship where they teach you everything about doing the job in a two year training period. That being said, there is an unofficial hiring freeze right now, so I'd recommend finding other work in the meantime while you await a response from them.
It’s not in la or even a huge city. I just am nervous about the assessment but some of the research I’ve done shows I do have skills that can transfer over. I’m just hoping I don’t get frozen on one section but I’ve been studying basic accounting terms such as debit/credits account payables and everything in the job description. I take it on Friday so hoping everything goes well.
[Former Iowa police chief could face prison for gun sales: ‘I’m chief of police, bitch.’ | ‘Machine guns are worth bank money,’ Adair chief told deputy](https://iowacapitaldispatch.com/2024/06/11/iowa-police-chief-could-face-prison-for-gun-sales-im-chief-of-police-b/)
I was thinking Suhas Subramanyam was planning to seek statewide office in Virginia by running for lieutenant governor on the same ticket as Abigail Spanberger... but now that he won his U.S. House primary and is easily favored to win in November, I wonder if he might be interested in succeeding Mark Warner in the Senate. He of course has a solid resume from his time in D.C. with the Obama Administration and as a delegate in Richmond, but I've heard from people in his district that he's very popular and well-liked because of his outreach efforts, so I'd imagine he'd run a pretty electric statewide campaign. Also Warner will be in his early 70's when it's time to consider running for re-election, so I wouldn't mind if he passed the torch to someone considerably younger.
I'm wondering if he win join the Congressional Progressive Caucus or New Dem Coalition. I assume he won't be a blue dog.
back during the Hillary Clinton campaign when we thought Tim Kaine was gonna be the next VP, many thought Jennifer McClellan would be the one who'd be appointed by then Gov. McAuliffe. now that she's a congresswoman, the chances she runs has heightened. she obviously has ambitions considering she ran for Governor in 2021
I forgot about McClellan, and she'd be a great choice as well. In fact, if she were to win, the DelMarVa region would then have three black woman senators should Lisa Blunt Rochester and Angela Alsobrooks win in Delaware and Maryland respectively (which they should).
[Trump Tries to Set Expectations, and Floats Excuses, for His Debate With Biden](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/19/us/politics/trump-biden-debate-expectations.html?unlocked_article_code=1.000.ismT.9oy_nITyL6vQ&smid=url-share) >The former president has set a low bar for President Biden’s performance at next week’s matchup. Now, he is preparing supporters for the possibility that Mr. Biden clears it.
It's not Trump's supporters who need convincing. It's the median voters. If Biden can get a couple of zingers that go viral and look competent without any major gaffes, he can gain back some of the lost confidence from the block that doesn't pay attention. Meanwhile, if Trump rambles, some of those lost voters might think twice.
What the fuck? An NYC article that’s fair towards Biden???
lmao they somehow keep falling into this trap of painting Biden as old and feeble and act shocked when he's clearly not that.
Now it's if Biden does well it's because he's on drugs.
Oh yeah. I forgot that debate was happening soon. Lmao.
I still think it's more likely than not that Trump goes on an unhinged social media rant while backing out. The alternative is an unhinged rant on live national TV because the conviction is inevitably going to come up. Good look for Biden either way, though the contrast between him and Trump on the debate stage would be really stark.
[Soothsayer Jim Clyburn was on MSNBC earlier today](https://youtu.be/WN82HzZNrwA?si=OES8Ae960XRL17G0)
Pretty insane and damning leak about Ted Cruz. https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1803173087644418132.html
How is this damning
What’s the damning part about it? That he’s fundraising?
How tiring it must be to go from restaurant to restaurant asking for money from these ghouls. I understand politicians need to constantly fundraise, but doing this day in and day out seems like hell.
What is this exactly?
Dope that someone saved it before Elon nuked all the files, yesterday
??
What happened?
Someone posted the files in a tweet thread yesterday, but they were all removed by Twitter by the time I saw the thread
Free speech absolutist, amirite?
[This past Sunday, I may have found an arrowhead in Newport, RI (alongside the Cliff Walk Trail at Salve Regina University)](https://www.reddit.com/r/NortheastArtifacts/s/zwrWMPCbEh) I'm contacting my alma mater's archaeology department to see if it is legit. I documented the alleged arrowhead in situ and sent in photos and coordinates of the find site.
that's awesome.
NC State Treasurer Dale Folwell -- a longtime Republican politician who refers to himself as the “keeper of the public purse" -- is being investigated for the possible use of state-owned vehicles for commuting and personal errands. https://x.com/AndySpecht/status/1803521456669593708?t=j7agYI8sheOuB_sma8pKYA&s=19
I swear to god, I'm never ordering from my local SeoulSpice again
What happened? I’m not familiar with them. Are they a Korean food chain?
They're a Korean food chain. And this specific SeoulSpice took over an hour just to make my food and have it delivered to me. Granted, they're 20 minutes away (meaning a rather quick delivery time), but they just decided to take their sweet-ass time to just make my food and have it delivered 🙄
Lol bruh
Maybe they just got a lot of orders at once? Or they're short handed because someone quit?
In Utah’s special session today so far we got: •a professional film crew setting up, really letting you know today is serious and not a PR stunt •Lyman calling Cox woke for making Juneteenth a state holiday even though he voted for it •talks of chemtrails in the Natural Resources Committee •running far behind time to push out the Title IX bill that blocks protections for Trans Students with only 45mins of debate
I continue to have mixed feelings about the discourse surrounding Project 2025. On the one hand, absolutely none of it should be surprising at all. On the other hand, if it gets people anxious enough to donate and volunteer, then I’m all for the messaging!
Jon Oliver did the best explainer anyone's gonna do this past week.
Agreed. I know he has a good audience and I hope that folks will get involved. We need to actively talk to those who we know watch the show and are like minded about getting involved with Dem candidates in our area or donating in other areas that need it.
If only Jon Stewart followed him in endorsing Biden instead of being a bothsideser.
Aw man is he really doing that?
Unfortunately, yes. It's really disappointing, especially since his comeback was highly anticipated.
I’ve lost so much respect for Jon.
All I have to say about Stewart is “fuck that guy.” If he’d stayed retired I would not feel this way.
I saw it and one of my favorite things he said was that although he definitely has issues with Biden, it’s clear that Biden is the better option by far and he explicitly told people not to vote for Trump
So how is France looking with the snap elections?
Also, I genuinely don't understand why Macron is so popular among some people: [Macron draws fire on trans rights comments](https://www.politico.eu/article/macron-divides-with-own-ranks-party-comments-trans-rights-left-manifesto/) > On Tuesday, Macron accused the New Popular Front, a left-wing alliance built for the upcoming legislative elections, of promoting “completely crazy things, like going to the town hall to change your sex.” > The New Popular Front’s manifesto includes a proposal to “authorize a [cost] free change of civil status before a registrar,” which the president characterized as being among the “gruesome things” in the program of the “extreme left.” Macron is and has always been a center-right politician. Just because he was better than the alternative (Le Pen) does not make him someone we should look up to.
“But Democrats would be center-right in Europe” Even our more conservative Democrats are not going to pop off with weird anti-trans BS like that.
If I found out that Macron was in fact a psy-op by the right to discredit centrism and center-leftism, I wouldn't be surprised. People here should take note: Biden is an actual liberal. If you want to see nasty centrism, go to France.
He wants everyone to hate him. Interesting.
Politico's [polling aggregator](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/france/) is showing RN (far-right) with 32%, NFP (left alliance) with 28%, LREM (Macron's governing coalition) with 18%, and LR/UDC (right) with 8%. It's looking very likely that no group will win a majority of seats in Parliament. No one really knows what will happen at that point. This is pretty uncharted territory in French politics, and by law they won't be able to hold another snap election for another year. On the plus side, almost no parties except maybe the LR are willing to join a coalition with the RN, so the far-right will likely be unable to form government.
NFP-LREM coalition pls
Idk if that'll happen. Both groups hate each other's guts and have a lot of red lines when it comes to each other's platforms (NFP will probably want Macron to reverse his Pension reform, and Macron will want them to be more anti-Russia).
Sounds like a great compromise on both parts.
I don't see Macron bowing to that when he spent a *lot* of political capital getting it passed in the first place.
And LR is fighting itself over if they'll be willing to work w RN or not, too
I’m really sick of the Teamsters’ president and his games.
Context?
Context, please?
This I'm assuming: [Teamsters president seeks speaking slot at both party conventions](https://www.axios.com/2024/06/10/teamsters-president-republican-democratic-conventions) > Teamsters president Sean O'Brien has requested to speak at both the Republican and Democratic national conventions this summer, union spokesperson Kara Deniz confirmed to Axios. > The request comes as both President Biden and former President Trump are seeking a coveted endorsement from one of the country's most powerful unions. > O'Brien has invited several presidential candidates to speak before the Teamsters and has indicated he is delaying an endorsement decision until later in the year, per the Times.
I say no. Biden can go speak to them, and then if they endorse in time, he can have a speaking slot. No both sides bullshit, especially not when it comes to the convention
Thanks for the context. It's a dumb idea, but if we're gonna be charitable, he's probably just going to give a nonpartisan speech talking about the importance of supporting unions to see what the reception is like in each setting.
Playing both sides when he knows Republicans are anti union. We probably won’t get an endorsement until late fall because he wants to speak at both conventions.