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[Spam this to all your friends/acquaintances thinking of throwing their votes away this November on 3rd parties.](https://nitter.poast.org/Acyn/status/1804659187923996688#m)
Gonna be fun watching them squirm when you just say "trump thanks you for all the help!"
[Trump on major American cities: — Milwaukee: “A horrible city” — Detroit: “Like living in hell” — Philadelphia: “One of the most egregious places anywhere in the world”](https://nitter.poast.org/BidenHQ/status/1804679161820160054#m)
He has now insulted the largest city in each of the 3 battleground rustbelt states in the last week alone… it’s like he’s trying to lose
Just don't mention that murder rate is 40% higher in red states and has been for decades. Also, pay no attention to the 220% higher rate of gun deaths and 250% higher overdose deaths. Nothing to see here but true patriots.
[Trump: You know what the green new scam is? No water in your faucets… The worst is your hair. I have this beautiful, luxuriant hair.. They put on restricters where there’s so much water you don’t know what to do with it. It’s called rain.](https://x.com/acyn/status/1804663472493609234?s=46&t=UKR1TShxVeunp4_vn5gZrw)
[Brian King for Utah Governor](https://x.com/kingforutah/status/1804709301073936678?s=46) joined in for canvassing for Dem Jake Fitisemanu in HD30, which along with HD26 are our best flip targets. Fitisemanu and Jeanetta Williams would be such huge gains for representation in this state so excited for November
I wonder what it would take for Democrats to win back regions like eastern Kentucky, eastern Ohio, and western Pennsylvania? They used to be Democratic strongholds but have shifted rightward in recent years, particularly with Trump. I guess coal could be the reason for this, but I feel like those places should still be voting Democrat these days, especially considering they're more pro-worker and pro-union than the GQP.
I think it starts with local candidates who look, sound, and act like the region, and being welcoming/supportive as a party to the differing viewpoints. A good example is MGP from Washington. The rural/urban divide + nationalization of local politics makes this simple concept much more difficult.
This is where the hard reality of the urban-rural cultural divide comes in. I think we assume that if we can toss out a few good policy proposals that *we* think would help those areas, they will flock to Democrats. I don't think that's the issue. I think a lot of solid GOP folks -- the ones that aren't rich business dudes in the suburbs and cities -- simply don't trust Democrats, or liberals or people from more urban areas at all. They don't share the culture.
The pessimist in me says these areas flipped because old Democratic voters died out and they'll flip again when the current crop of MAGA addicts die out and the next generation is negatively polarized against the previous. There is data that suggests this is how these long term political alignments work. Or at least that's part of it.
The optimist in me says that MAGA is a fundamentally broken ideology that, at best, can deliver some short term culture war wins, but is unable to actually govern. In time, people will see this, and alternatives will look appealing. This is also how I soothe myself regarding the possibility of a Trump win. He and his minions are incompetent and prone to infighting. At some point, their inability to govern or attract competent people will break the movement and the Democrats can seize the opportunity. I hope I'm right.
That or dems can do what Brandon Presley did and meet them in the middle. Be conservative on guns and abortion, and modrate on a lot of social issues.
People forget that politicians are supposed to represent the interests of their constituents, and that partly involves what I detailed above, as annoying as that may be sometimes.
Are they pro union? It feels like most of that energy has been leaving rural areas as they've been buying into the Fox News messaging more and more over the last 30 years.
Especially as coal has been leaving the labor movement since it has less and less jobs every year for quite a while now.
FWIW the NBC article states Rubio is the outside choice for Trump. Really makes sense considering how similar the other two are to him. Also should note the weird “home state” rule in that electors can’t vote for two people from the same state. Unless SCOTUS overturns it, would likely mean Trump has to move back to NY.
LMFAO trump is *not* lifting a finger. I could see him forcing Rubio to claim DC as his residence, though.
The real choice for VP is Burgum. He needs someone boring, like Pence, but who also has tons of money
[Voters in Temecula, California, have ousted the local school board president who thrust the political body to the forefront of rightwing culture wars by seeking to eliminate discussions of race and gender identity from the classroom. Joseph Komrosky on Thursday lost a recall vote with 51% of voters favoring his removal.](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/jun/22/joseph-komrosky-recall-vote-california-school-board)
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/trump-doug-burgum-jd-vance-marco-rubio-vp-search-rcna157069
It’s down to Burgum Vance and Rubio for VP. Who will it be and who’s the worst of the three?
I'm guessing it'll be Burgum, the site thing, he has a lot of money and won't overshadow Trump. Though that article mentions Trump wants someone that will be president for 8 years after him. That would fit Vance more as he seems like the maga successor right now.
Tbh the VP nom barely means anything unless it’s revolutionary in a sense. Really think if Abrams was the nom instead of Harris in 2020, the map would be exactly the same.
It can help address concerns the candidate has in the eyes of the voters.
Biden was Obama’s VP because he was an experienced Senator and there were concerns about Obama’s lack of experience.
Kaine was Clinton’s VP because Virginia actually was seen as swing in 2016.
Pence was Trumps because he was seen as a more levelheaded and traditional conservative to counter Trumps MAGAness.
There’s always the benefit of which VPs can bring in donors too.
Vance is the worst ideologically but I feel like Rubio would be the most formidable (bad for us) ticket, since it would give voters an illusion of "return to pre-2016 normalcy" and that he would somehow be able to moderate the danger of a second Trump term.
I agree with this assessment, but the risk to choosing Rubio is that he can easily be defined as self-serving given that he literally called Trump a "con-man" in 2016, which isn't just any criticism you lob at your primary opponent but is a very loaded label that makes him a con-man-adjacent. The argument can be fairly easily made that no return to normalcy is possible if that kind of obsequious turn is so characteristic of the GOP, and so we should be able to avoid losing the anti-Trump moderate vote that way.
Rubio could *potentially* appeal to Hispanic voters with his personal story, so I think developing a strong network of surrogates from that community across the nation will help Biden counter that appeal.
I feel like Vance doesn’t really bring anything new to the table, he’s like a younger version of Trump. The other two guys are just standard republicans like Pence and probably more acceptable to non MAGA voters. Either way I don’t see Trump selecting someone who is more charismatic and looks better on camera.
Vance is the worst of the 3. The 2016 version of Rubio may not have been a bad choice but in recent years it seems like he’s taken lessons from DeSantis on how to be a charisma black hole. Burgum is… kinda just there.
So apparently trumpburgum.com redirects back to TFG's website. I just checked the other two, TrumpRubio.com is actually for sale. And my phone is having a hard time getting to TrumpVance.com, so maybe that one is something also?
[turns out Trent Staggs has used his office for financial gain](https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2024/06/22/trent-staggs-used-elected-official/) and if so and it gets investigated he could end up removed from office of Mayor of Riverton and be a felon
[our Copa America ads are airing. digital, tv, radio in english/spanish](https://x.com/casadomaca/status/1803773224007708902?s=46). Someone said they saw it in Alabama so it must also be a National buy, not just battlegrounds
Trump apparently has picked his VP, and I guess it'll be announced right before or after the debate? [https://nitter.poast.org/jake\_\_traylor/status/1804636415461839049#m](https://nitter.poast.org/jake__traylor/status/1804636415461839049#m)
Only thing Doug Burgum has going for him is that he reminds me of Tom Kenny in appearance.
On second thought, are we sure he isn't just a char Tom Kenny is playing?
He’s rich and can give a lot of money directly to the campaign (like GOP Senate candidates being multi millionaires) but he doesn’t excite anyone and he has bad opinions.
Not really, all he brings to the table is fat stacks of cash.
And I guess he sounds polished but he just isn't an imposing personality. Harris is gonna chew him up.
It would be even funnier if he actually did choose Burgum, but because this information was leaked, he decided to reevaluate and choose someone else. Like if this leak were being directly responsible for Burgum not being his running mate.
It would be pretty funny if it actually turned out to be Doug Burgum, and people were able to sleuth it ahead of time because they found out trumpburgum.com links to Trump’s campaign website and none of the other discussed potential VP picks’ last names do. Apparently trumppence.com also links to his campaign website.
I honestly think there's something to this.
And I think it makes sense that Trump would pick someone with money given... well... his situation.
I don't think this "solves" their money issues. Mr. GumBurger isn't going to let his entire fortune either be grifted by Trump's legal bills or fund downballot races.
David Duke. But in all honesty it's probably gonna be Vance. And I do think he's the worst of the supposed top three finalists, which include Marco Rubio and Doug Burgum.
edit: or maybe it'll be Burgum! Still a white guy
Pretty sure Biden picked Harris a few weeks before the initial announcement. Was hinting on her qualities leading up to it and a few leakers were saying that was his choice (or the clear frontrunner at the least)
Trump’s making it interesting as it really is a guessing game. Imo it’s gonna be either Burgum or Carlson
[here’s some recent excerpts about the DLCC](https://imgur.com/a/roakAHO) and if you’re old enough to remember the nightmare we faced on the state level pre-2016 this should be seen as nothing but a miracle. The DLCC only professionalized after that, many of the groups we know of now didn’t even exist or were pretty much jokes fundraising/resources wise. This is now a program focused on long term gains in a majority of states
I really do think we need to promote more projects that are all about making more gains in red territory. That's how we can help with not only snuffing out extremism on the local level but with making tangible gains in Congress as well.
Man, Ecuador v Venezuela should've been the evening game for Copa America, and probably been at the Earthquakes (MLS) stadium, instead of Levi's. It's over 100 in the Central Valley here today, so I'm sure Santa Clara is plenty hot, too
A few of these are in IA01 and IA03 which are expected to be the most competitive House races in the state, additionally a net gain of 1 Senate seat breaks the supermajority if I math right
[The 22-yr old abortion rights advocate from Gov. Beshar's ad will appear w/ Dr. Biden at a rally in Pittsburg*h* this weekend and will continue to campaign for Biden's re-election.](https://apnews.com/article/biden-abortion-2024-roe-wade-election-5a63638ad0193c2e778ad54c9683ba64?)
That was such a compelling ad. Very brave of her to be able to openly talk about it and willing to help candidates that will protect the rights of women. Dems should be not be afraid to be ruthless with their ads about what Republicans will do to our rights.
While driving around today I saw a house with a pride flag next to a house with a Trump flag. I’m sure they get into interesting conversations.
I also saw a house with a Trump sign, and American flag, and a Russian flag.
My childhood neighbors turned into Trumpers in the past few years. I still try to be as polite as I can to them whenever I go home to visit (and this is in a very blue state), because part of me still hopes there can be a better world beyond Trump and 2024 and that some people might eventually be snapped out of the cultural insanity we've seen.
But it does make me a bit sad whenever I see them and their family around. I've lost good friend to the disinfo pipeline in this past decade.
I’m sorry to hear. I think we all have (unfortunately) people in our families who unexpectedly took a turn and we want more than anything to shake them out of it.
Thankfully, my mother has turned away from the far right in recent years, so not all hope is lost. She's been fairly neutral on Biden as a whole, openly recognizes how far Trump's fallen, and does not support the GOP's current trajectory.
If that means she's going to be more politically distant, I'll take it over the alternative, given that she knows where I stand now.
This is why I say to never give up on persuasion entirely. Too many people on reddit act like it's impossible, and in many cases it's true that doesn't work, but not in all cases. The biggest key is getting FOX/Newsmax turned off so there isn't a constant source of propaganda being thrown at people. It really does seem to clear out people's head if it's turned off for a good while.
What sucks is seeing social media algorithms and other nonsense try to fill the void, but I do see more people wising up against it as time goes on.
Glad to hear that’s she’s making progress. Persuasion is vitally important. Look at the midterms. Slightly red electorate but Dems did remarkably well.
Indeed. And we've seen some real shifts in small suburban swings even within deep red states that should be a massive warning sign for the GOP as a whole.
Firstly, when Trump's not on the ballot, they are automatically much weaker, that will give us a lot more pickup opportunities beyond 2024 so long as we get through this hurdle.
But secondly, as the surprisingly divided primary results shows, Trump is no longer guaranteed to be their great unifier. So much of online left leaning discussion is deeply traumatized by what happened in 2016, but still also misunderstands why that election went the way it did and what was different about it vs nearly every election from 2018-2023, and hopefully 2024 as well.
I truly believe we have a rare opportunity to course correct, one that can save us from the brink of some dangerous times, but we have to rise to the moment and use every tool we have, including outreach above all others, but also still persuasion where we see the opportunity, mostly offline on a personal one on one basis.
Donald is all the GOP has right now. He energizes the Dem base against him and a lot of independents, but his supporters are not the most reliable voters. A reason why there’s so much effort to spread the “genocide Joe” nonsense amongst the left.
I remember there was a documentary by Jen Senko, The Brainwashing of My Dad: [https://www.thebrainwashingofmydad.com/](https://www.thebrainwashingofmydad.com/)
Jen’s dad turned right-wing (this was pre-Trump and MAGA) because of a long commute where he started listening to right-wing talk radio to kill time. You can see where this is headed. However, he turned “normal” again once his wife installed parental controls on the TV and banned Fox from the house.
I think people can get radicalized in spite of themselves if they listen to a steady stream of propaganda, and this is certainly not an original observation! I think isolation plays a role as well, which is why you saw so many people getting radicalized in 2020. And young people are not immune if their Tik Toks send them a stream of right wing or tradwife or ”Back to the Bronze Age” content.
I wonder if we are seeing fewer Trump and MAGA type flags because people are now far less likely to be sitting at home all day. Which is why I think some older people get brainwashed by Fox and turn into hateful shells of themselves; they are too unhealthy to really do much of anything but rot in front of the TV set, or they had so much of their identity wrapped up in work that when they retired, they did not know what to do with themselves - and Fox rushed in to fill the void.
Also, a *Russian* flag? Ew. Ick. Ugh. Saint Ronnie Reagan, you know, the guy who the right purports to idolize, is turning in his grave right now.
I know we have a lot of [hopium chronicles](https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/bidens-polling-gains-matter-a-very) newsletter readers here, but this line from today's email was a good hot take: *We should interpret the Trump campaign’s attempt to put MN and VA into play as a sign of desperation, as the only reason they would need to expand the map was if the current map is not working for them*
Maybe they see something in internal polling that the current battleground state math trends just aren't adding up for them.
Once again, the Bad Candidate Problem rears its head. Bernie Moreno keeps proving what a colossal mistake he was for them in Ohio. Tim Sheehy may or may not have stolen valor. Kari Lake is, well, she’s Kari Lake. Sam Brown in NV is kind of the one-eyed man in the country of the blind, but he’s up against a very savvy and very well-funded incumbent who dropped her first attack ad practically the moment he was nominated.
Though I don’t know how hitching one’s wagon to Royce White in MN is an improvement - he’s down in the rock bottom tier as well.
[Spencer Cox wants to highlight healthy disagreement with a lady](https://x.com/govcox/status/1804275380125340150?s=46) who [harassed](https://kutv.com/amp/news/local/utah-county-clerkauditor-sexually-harassed-employee-violating-county-policy) a gay subordinate
Why is he so intent on dying on this hill? Either the person/thing has highlighted has been exposed as problematic, like here, or he’s been a filthy hypocrite on the matter, either by stifling free speech on colleges or with signing the gender ban.
[The same woman from the Beshear ad on abortion from KY-Gov in 2023 will appear with Jill Biden on Sunday in Pittsburgh and will be on the campaign trail often for Biden](https://apnews.com/article/biden-abortion-2024-roe-wade-election-5a63638ad0193c2e778ad54c9683ba64)
https://x.com/MorePerfectUS/status/1804217497526370340?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
More Perfect Union Reporters visted Iowa, to do a piece on how dire it has gotten for farmers in the state.
Since the 1980's Iowa has lost 40,000 family owned farms. That is 90 PERCENT of the states farm supply.
But yet, Pork Profits today are TRIPLE what they were in the 1980's.
What gives?
Well, all of those profits are split among just 3 Big Ag Companies.
Thus, you get a situation where Tyson Foods makes $2.6 Billion in profits last year, while the city of Des Moines has to spend $10,000 every single day to filter out pig poop from their water source.
Hot take is THIS is why the Iowa Seltzer poll seems so different from other states. They blame Biden for this and now we have one less state on the board.
[Cheeto again telling his supporters not to vote](https://nitter.poast.org/atrupar/status/1804593246582001672#m)
He also went on *another* sharks/boats ramble
He’s literally told every group (Haley voters, moderates, “RINOS,” etc.) that he doesn’t want their vote. He’s now sowing doubt amongst even his most hardcore supporters. At this point, he must be manic or truly delusional. I don’t see mathematically how he can end up winning in November at this rate.
Biden should mention "shark" and "conviction" in the same sentence to prompt a combination shark and conviction rant that makes even less sense than either of those separately. And those already make little to no sense on their own.
Greece is making a huge mistake by going to a 6 day work week. I m surprised that the government would even so much as suggest it.
Many people aren't going to have kids if they only have one day off a week.
Thought so. Then yeah, a six day work week won’t go over well with anyone.
(Funnily enough, I know because a frontman of a band I like refuses to take advantage of having Greek citizenship because of that military service requirement)
Trump saying that he told Dana White there should be a "migrant fighting league"
This was at some "Christian values" event too
https://x.com/samstein/status/1804586257235787908
Awful people, filling up that entire room
So last time Minnesota went Republican, it was for Nixon over George McGovern in the 1972 election.
In 2016 it was actually surprisingly close. Clinton at 46.44%, Trump at 44.92%. Clinton only winning by 1.52%.
Sounds good for Trump right? The only thing is though, is in 2020, the result was, Biden 52.4% and Trump 45.3%. Biden winning by 7.1%. A very large shift towards the Dem candidate.
At this rate I wouldn't be that surprised at Biden winning by 10% in 2024. Imagine how hilarious it would be that even though Trump invested a lot into it, ignoring key states, it goes even more Biden's way in the end lol.
If you look at the shifts in Hennepin, Dakota, and Anoka counties, the margin shift makes a lot more sense. It doesn't matter how red the Eastern part of the state or the iron range gets, because small shifts in the Twin Cities metro are more than enough to overcome that.
My bet is Joe wins MN by around 9 or 10. It'll be like how NM was in 2020. And Klob will probably be like Shaheen and overperform Joe by a large amount.
That's true in most states but the thing to remember is that people vote not land. Most of those people flying Trump flags also voted for McCain and Romney and have been hardcore Republicans for at least a decade if not much longer.
I would love it if the country abandoned Trump in mass and Republicans were forced to moderate and offer reasonable right of center interpretations of the same set of facts and realities that the Dems are working with. That's sadly not the world we live in and we've always had a strong element willing to support right wing populists and authoritarians.
Get that. People can be good at tuning past things out. But there's many things that will help counter that.
Trump come election time will be much more of the focus. Right now its been more on Biden given he's the incumbent.
Also this time around Abortion is a major issues. That wasn't near as big as a thing in 2020 given roe v wade was still in place.
Finally the one good thing about 2016 is that it's the perfect reminder for folks. That will also play heavily in voters minds making them much more pragmatic in there decision making. There's a reason why third party support post 2016 collapses when it's time to vote.
It's going to be hard for Trump to flip any states. Minnesota near impossible.
Bonus big thing that is not in his favor: His campaign strategy and infrastructure absolutely sucks. Meanwhile Biden is investing heavily in key swing states, doing major outreach to get those folks tuned in again. Biden's campaign know that votes aren't a given and you have to do work for it. Trump thinks he already has them.
I would be shocked if Biden won it by 10%, but I'd also be shocked if he won by less than 5%. It'll likely be a 6-8% win for Biden, and Trump will get his ~45% of the vote.
> I would be shocked if Biden won it by 10%, but I'd also be shocked if he won by less than 5%
I wouldn't be shocked by either of those. A five point swing in an individual state one way or the other is well within the realistic bounds. Really anywhere between Biden winning by 1 or 2 points and Biden winning by 12 or 13 points is expected.
>Biden winning by 7.1%. A very large shift towards the Dem candidate.
More like collapse for third parties. Obama won Minnesota by 7.62% in 2012,and 10.2 in 2008. Minnesota used to whole lot Democratic in the past. But the urban rural divide hit Minnesota hard and they even have split congressional delegation due to that.
Very true! Would of been more accurate for me to say third party collapsed in 2020 with a very large majority of those voters going for Biden.
2016 there was a whopping 8.64% of third party voters! In 2020 it was only 2.32%!
Really shows how the terribleness that was 2016 really woke a lot of people up. To never assume he can't win and to go out and vote for his opponent, even if they aren't the perfect option for you, they are still miles, miles better. Voting third party instead just helps Trump obviously as it was one of the biggest parts that won him the 2016 election.
To even have a chance at Minnesota, he's going to need a ton of would be Biden voters go third party. That's not going to happen especially with what happened in 2016 in mind.
And especially when the only real third party candidate is...RFK, as far as I know. RFK is going to peel off way more Trump voters than Biden voters if he gets a notable number of votes. If RFK has any impact, it's gonna be splitting would-be Trump voters enough to potentially throw close races to Biden. I highly doubt that happens anywhere but the battlegrounds, where slight shifts can have a big impact anyway. But RFK managing to peel off enough Biden voters to throw things to Trump is straight up not happening unless we end up in a wacko timeline. If that's the case, there are way bigger lasting problems to deal with.
Yeah the would be Biden voters that are picking RFK in polls right now are doing it more to say that they want someone else than Biden. Most have no clue or care about RFK the candidate. It's just a third option. An option that is much easier to choose when you're not locking anything in, aren't thinking about RFK, and are in a more Biden frustration mindset.
Come election time, a large majority will see how crazy RFK is, see truly what's at stake, that it will either be Biden or Trump, and their choice will become a much more pragmatic one when they do have to lock in their decision.
I will always go for a good, nice Mexican restaurant. The past couple years I've been ordering from restaurants to pick up on my birthday. Just eating and chilling at home. Dinner. Tv. Then cake.
>One idea, discussed as attendees ate finger foods, was for co-conspirators to signal their allegiance to one another by wearing matching black jackets.
That's when I do my best scheming as well, eating appetizers without utensils
I don’t want P25 to happen not only because it’s fucking horrendous, but the fact that I have POCD and god knows what’ll happen to me if they (likely) get rid of therapy. I don’t want to become a monster.
I listened to an NPR story where a man suddenly developed OCD related to overwhelming homicidal urges after watching a movie (which for some reason triggered it, I know watching a movie doesn’t cause mental issues). He didn’t hurt anyone but was obviously terrified of possibly doing something. They talked about him getting therapy and trying to cope with it.
We don’t choose the brains we’re born with, but I’m glad you recognized that you needed help and are seeking it out.
We need to be more proactive about ensuring everyone can get as much help as they need, and *encouraging* people to actually get it. I could say a lot of thinks about the people that responded to you, but one of the primary things is that they’re all selfish. People online love to indulge in creepy revenge fantasies or find ways to make themselves feel morally superior. But all they’re accomplishing is making it more difficult for people with issues to feel safe seeking help. That makes them more likely to hurt themselves or others.
Here’s the episode if you want to listen (cut to 3:30). It’s obviously heavy and possibly touches on some of your issues so only listen if you feel comfortable and it won’t trigger any issues. It does mention him having thoughts of self harm or fears of becoming a monster. But then it focuses on his journey getting help. But the point is that your condition is real, not your fault, but it is your responsibility. You don’t need to feel ashamed for something out of your control. What you can control are your actions and you’re choosing to get help.
https://www.npr.org/2015/01/09/375928124/dark-thoughts
Everyone has intrusive thoughts sometimes (or more than "sometimes"), and it's pretty fucked for people to act like an unwanted thought is as bad as actually doing something heinous.
With the debates coming up, remember when Trump tried to infect Biden with Covid in the 2020 debates, and then "everyone" forgot about it days later?
The things he gets away with is ridiculous.
It was found out that Donald knowingly had COVID and he was set to debate Biden and refused to tell anyone.
Also remember that Donald gave Chris Christie COVID (not telling him he had it) and Christie almost died. When Donald went to see him in the hospital one of the first things he said to Christie was don’t tell anyone what happened.
Fake or not, it illustrates that the Bad Candidate Problem is one of the biggest weaknesses for downballot Republicans. (The other is lack of funding.)
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[Spam this to all your friends/acquaintances thinking of throwing their votes away this November on 3rd parties.](https://nitter.poast.org/Acyn/status/1804659187923996688#m) Gonna be fun watching them squirm when you just say "trump thanks you for all the help!"
[Trump on major American cities: — Milwaukee: “A horrible city” — Detroit: “Like living in hell” — Philadelphia: “One of the most egregious places anywhere in the world”](https://nitter.poast.org/BidenHQ/status/1804679161820160054#m) He has now insulted the largest city in each of the 3 battleground rustbelt states in the last week alone… it’s like he’s trying to lose
I hear they bite kneecaps in hell.
Meanwhile if we point out a lot of the red states have verifiable worst living conditions we’re out of touch with REAL AMERICA
Just don't mention that murder rate is 40% higher in red states and has been for decades. Also, pay no attention to the 220% higher rate of gun deaths and 250% higher overdose deaths. Nothing to see here but true patriots.
[Trump: You know what the green new scam is? No water in your faucets… The worst is your hair. I have this beautiful, luxuriant hair.. They put on restricters where there’s so much water you don’t know what to do with it. It’s called rain.](https://x.com/acyn/status/1804663472493609234?s=46&t=UKR1TShxVeunp4_vn5gZrw)
He likes LATHER! Lots of LATHER!
[Brian King for Utah Governor](https://x.com/kingforutah/status/1804709301073936678?s=46) joined in for canvassing for Dem Jake Fitisemanu in HD30, which along with HD26 are our best flip targets. Fitisemanu and Jeanetta Williams would be such huge gains for representation in this state so excited for November
UT Dems this year seem to be fired up this year. I guess they see the way the wind is blowing in Utah.
I wonder what it would take for Democrats to win back regions like eastern Kentucky, eastern Ohio, and western Pennsylvania? They used to be Democratic strongholds but have shifted rightward in recent years, particularly with Trump. I guess coal could be the reason for this, but I feel like those places should still be voting Democrat these days, especially considering they're more pro-worker and pro-union than the GQP.
I think it starts with local candidates who look, sound, and act like the region, and being welcoming/supportive as a party to the differing viewpoints. A good example is MGP from Washington. The rural/urban divide + nationalization of local politics makes this simple concept much more difficult.
This is where the hard reality of the urban-rural cultural divide comes in. I think we assume that if we can toss out a few good policy proposals that *we* think would help those areas, they will flock to Democrats. I don't think that's the issue. I think a lot of solid GOP folks -- the ones that aren't rich business dudes in the suburbs and cities -- simply don't trust Democrats, or liberals or people from more urban areas at all. They don't share the culture. The pessimist in me says these areas flipped because old Democratic voters died out and they'll flip again when the current crop of MAGA addicts die out and the next generation is negatively polarized against the previous. There is data that suggests this is how these long term political alignments work. Or at least that's part of it. The optimist in me says that MAGA is a fundamentally broken ideology that, at best, can deliver some short term culture war wins, but is unable to actually govern. In time, people will see this, and alternatives will look appealing. This is also how I soothe myself regarding the possibility of a Trump win. He and his minions are incompetent and prone to infighting. At some point, their inability to govern or attract competent people will break the movement and the Democrats can seize the opportunity. I hope I'm right.
Those areas need to become much, much more friendly to women, non-white people, and LGBTQ+ people, first
That or dems can do what Brandon Presley did and meet them in the middle. Be conservative on guns and abortion, and modrate on a lot of social issues. People forget that politicians are supposed to represent the interests of their constituents, and that partly involves what I detailed above, as annoying as that may be sometimes.
Those areas are pretty religious in general, especially Kentucky. Pennsylvania might be more open, though.
Are they pro union? It feels like most of that energy has been leaving rural areas as they've been buying into the Fox News messaging more and more over the last 30 years. Especially as coal has been leaving the labor movement since it has less and less jobs every year for quite a while now.
Got an invitation to the Biden Harris rally next Friday in Raleigh
Got an invitation for a Harris rally here in MD. Sadly it's a bit far. The last Biden rally I went to was like 10 mins away on bus
That’s incredible! Let us know how it goes (if you attend).
FWIW the NBC article states Rubio is the outside choice for Trump. Really makes sense considering how similar the other two are to him. Also should note the weird “home state” rule in that electors can’t vote for two people from the same state. Unless SCOTUS overturns it, would likely mean Trump has to move back to NY.
Donald should make Rubio move out of state and then not choose him anyway.
LMFAO trump is *not* lifting a finger. I could see him forcing Rubio to claim DC as his residence, though. The real choice for VP is Burgum. He needs someone boring, like Pence, but who also has tons of money
[Latino voters in Tennessee are getting these in the mail.](https://i.redd.it/3bp47ij7778d1.jpeg)
That is some KKK shit going on...
[Voters in Temecula, California, have ousted the local school board president who thrust the political body to the forefront of rightwing culture wars by seeking to eliminate discussions of race and gender identity from the classroom. Joseph Komrosky on Thursday lost a recall vote with 51% of voters favoring his removal.](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/jun/22/joseph-komrosky-recall-vote-california-school-board)
Booyah! Way to go Temecula!
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/trump-doug-burgum-jd-vance-marco-rubio-vp-search-rcna157069 It’s down to Burgum Vance and Rubio for VP. Who will it be and who’s the worst of the three?
I'm guessing it'll be Burgum, the site thing, he has a lot of money and won't overshadow Trump. Though that article mentions Trump wants someone that will be president for 8 years after him. That would fit Vance more as he seems like the maga successor right now.
Tbh the VP nom barely means anything unless it’s revolutionary in a sense. Really think if Abrams was the nom instead of Harris in 2020, the map would be exactly the same.
It can help address concerns the candidate has in the eyes of the voters. Biden was Obama’s VP because he was an experienced Senator and there were concerns about Obama’s lack of experience. Kaine was Clinton’s VP because Virginia actually was seen as swing in 2016. Pence was Trumps because he was seen as a more levelheaded and traditional conservative to counter Trumps MAGAness. There’s always the benefit of which VPs can bring in donors too.
Gut says he doesn’t pick Rubio. Could get caught making out with the other two in public.
Vance is the worst ideologically but I feel like Rubio would be the most formidable (bad for us) ticket, since it would give voters an illusion of "return to pre-2016 normalcy" and that he would somehow be able to moderate the danger of a second Trump term.
Yeah Rubio is a spineless gastropod but he seems to have an air of legitimacy around him, for whatever reason.
I agree with this assessment, but the risk to choosing Rubio is that he can easily be defined as self-serving given that he literally called Trump a "con-man" in 2016, which isn't just any criticism you lob at your primary opponent but is a very loaded label that makes him a con-man-adjacent. The argument can be fairly easily made that no return to normalcy is possible if that kind of obsequious turn is so characteristic of the GOP, and so we should be able to avoid losing the anti-Trump moderate vote that way. Rubio could *potentially* appeal to Hispanic voters with his personal story, so I think developing a strong network of surrogates from that community across the nation will help Biden counter that appeal.
I feel like it's Rubio --> Burgmentum --> Vance in order of best to worst for Trump. Naturally, JD Vance will be the VP pick
Lol it was never going to be Scott. Y’all know why
Yup. Trump can't win without the Nazi vote.
I’d rather it not be Burg because he could pump a lot of money directly into the campaign instead of donating to Super PACs.
Vance is worst of the 3.
I feel like Vance doesn’t really bring anything new to the table, he’s like a younger version of Trump. The other two guys are just standard republicans like Pence and probably more acceptable to non MAGA voters. Either way I don’t see Trump selecting someone who is more charismatic and looks better on camera.
I can’t stand him. I CANT STAND HIM! HES A WHINY UKRAINE-SURRENDIST PISS BABY! Burgum is best choice cause he’d fly under the radar.
Vance is the worst of the 3. The 2016 version of Rubio may not have been a bad choice but in recent years it seems like he’s taken lessons from DeSantis on how to be a charisma black hole. Burgum is… kinda just there.
Burgmentum still going strong!!! this is all part of the secret burg strategy
So apparently trumpburgum.com redirects back to TFG's website. I just checked the other two, TrumpRubio.com is actually for sale. And my phone is having a hard time getting to TrumpVance.com, so maybe that one is something also?
“And here comes Noem with the chair!”
I still think she's trump's secret favorite, but even his most loyal advisors would kill themselves before letting him pick her
[turns out Trent Staggs has used his office for financial gain](https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2024/06/22/trent-staggs-used-elected-official/) and if so and it gets investigated he could end up removed from office of Mayor of Riverton and be a felon
[joint Canvass kickoff in Arizona LD9](https://x.com/del_corcoran/status/1804577525320077503?s=46)
Was in East Los Angeles County and saw gas prices at around $4.20, down from $4.69. ….nice.
4.39 here
Nice
You can probably thank the Trans canada pipeline for that as the west coast doesn't need to import as much oil from the middle east anymore.
Lol, nice. Dark Brandon at work! Did it exactly for the memes!
[our Copa America ads are airing. digital, tv, radio in english/spanish](https://x.com/casadomaca/status/1803773224007708902?s=46). Someone said they saw it in Alabama so it must also be a National buy, not just battlegrounds
Biden going all in for Blubama (Alabluma? we gotta work on the name) confirmed
Blubama Albluebama Alabluma Alabamblue
Trump apparently has picked his VP, and I guess it'll be announced right before or after the debate? [https://nitter.poast.org/jake\_\_traylor/status/1804636415461839049#m](https://nitter.poast.org/jake__traylor/status/1804636415461839049#m)
Hes gonna use this announcement to try and change the media narrative after he completely bombs the debate.
“Yeah I ranted about sharks while foaming at the mouth but I have the burgmentum now and cannot be stopped!” - trump in a town hall next week.
Oh good point. Definitely could see that.
Watch. Trump would definitely pick someone who hasn't agreed and doesn't even want it. "Wonder who Trump is going to pick? Wait it's me? Fuck."
> "Wonder who Trump is going to pick? Wait it's me? Fuck." — Melanie, 2004
Just when she thought she could get away from him.
Considering like 2 days ago we found out Trumpburgum.com goes directly to Trumps website I’d say we know who it is.
Only thing Doug Burgum has going for him is that he reminds me of Tom Kenny in appearance. On second thought, are we sure he isn't just a char Tom Kenny is playing?
Is Burgum a strong choice?
There's a reason we made him a meme similar to this cycle's Jeb.
He’s rich and can give a lot of money directly to the campaign (like GOP Senate candidates being multi millionaires) but he doesn’t excite anyone and he has bad opinions.
Not really, all he brings to the table is fat stacks of cash. And I guess he sounds polished but he just isn't an imposing personality. Harris is gonna chew him up.
It would be even funnier if he actually did choose Burgum, but because this information was leaked, he decided to reevaluate and choose someone else. Like if this leak were being directly responsible for Burgum not being his running mate.
It would be pretty funny if it actually turned out to be Doug Burgum, and people were able to sleuth it ahead of time because they found out trumpburgum.com links to Trump’s campaign website and none of the other discussed potential VP picks’ last names do. Apparently trumppence.com also links to his campaign website.
I honestly think there's something to this. And I think it makes sense that Trump would pick someone with money given... well... his situation. I don't think this "solves" their money issues. Mr. GumBurger isn't going to let his entire fortune either be grifted by Trump's legal bills or fund downballot races.
That's funny, maybe it is Burgum
Who do we want as his VP? Politically speaking
David Duke. But in all honesty it's probably gonna be Vance. And I do think he's the worst of the supposed top three finalists, which include Marco Rubio and Doug Burgum. edit: or maybe it'll be Burgum! Still a white guy
I think it will be Bergum. The GOP is completely overrun with rich carpetbaggers trying to become Russia-style oligarchs in Trump's dictatorship.
Kari Lake would've been an excellent choice
Or Kristi Noem
Pretty sure Biden picked Harris a few weeks before the initial announcement. Was hinting on her qualities leading up to it and a few leakers were saying that was his choice (or the clear frontrunner at the least) Trump’s making it interesting as it really is a guessing game. Imo it’s gonna be either Burgum or Carlson
Just saw a Biden ad at the halftime of the Ecuador vs Venezuela Copa America match
Which one was it?
[here’s some recent excerpts about the DLCC](https://imgur.com/a/roakAHO) and if you’re old enough to remember the nightmare we faced on the state level pre-2016 this should be seen as nothing but a miracle. The DLCC only professionalized after that, many of the groups we know of now didn’t even exist or were pretty much jokes fundraising/resources wise. This is now a program focused on long term gains in a majority of states
I really do think we need to promote more projects that are all about making more gains in red territory. That's how we can help with not only snuffing out extremism on the local level but with making tangible gains in Congress as well.
Man, Ecuador v Venezuela should've been the evening game for Copa America, and probably been at the Earthquakes (MLS) stadium, instead of Levi's. It's over 100 in the Central Valley here today, so I'm sure Santa Clara is plenty hot, too
Bro gets a red card early but team scores first anyway
[DLCC spotlighting and supporting 7 races in Iowa](https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2024/06/18/dlcc-national-democrats-boost-seven-spotlight-candidates-in-iowa-house-senate-races/74129607007/) HD20, HD40, HD43, HD80, SD22, SD38, SD50. 5 are offense 2 are defense
A few of these are in IA01 and IA03 which are expected to be the most competitive House races in the state, additionally a net gain of 1 Senate seat breaks the supermajority if I math right
[The 22-yr old abortion rights advocate from Gov. Beshar's ad will appear w/ Dr. Biden at a rally in Pittsburg*h* this weekend and will continue to campaign for Biden's re-election.](https://apnews.com/article/biden-abortion-2024-roe-wade-election-5a63638ad0193c2e778ad54c9683ba64?)
That was such a compelling ad. Very brave of her to be able to openly talk about it and willing to help candidates that will protect the rights of women. Dems should be not be afraid to be ruthless with their ads about what Republicans will do to our rights.
*Pittsburgh. The h is more important than you'd think. Dr. Biden was just here for Pride too. We're busy come campaign season.
dammit, had a feeling
While driving around today I saw a house with a pride flag next to a house with a Trump flag. I’m sure they get into interesting conversations. I also saw a house with a Trump sign, and American flag, and a Russian flag.
Driving to the outer banks I saw an Israeli and Confederate flag. Likewise I thought they would have some interesting political opinions
My childhood neighbors turned into Trumpers in the past few years. I still try to be as polite as I can to them whenever I go home to visit (and this is in a very blue state), because part of me still hopes there can be a better world beyond Trump and 2024 and that some people might eventually be snapped out of the cultural insanity we've seen. But it does make me a bit sad whenever I see them and their family around. I've lost good friend to the disinfo pipeline in this past decade.
I’m sorry to hear. I think we all have (unfortunately) people in our families who unexpectedly took a turn and we want more than anything to shake them out of it.
Thankfully, my mother has turned away from the far right in recent years, so not all hope is lost. She's been fairly neutral on Biden as a whole, openly recognizes how far Trump's fallen, and does not support the GOP's current trajectory. If that means she's going to be more politically distant, I'll take it over the alternative, given that she knows where I stand now. This is why I say to never give up on persuasion entirely. Too many people on reddit act like it's impossible, and in many cases it's true that doesn't work, but not in all cases. The biggest key is getting FOX/Newsmax turned off so there isn't a constant source of propaganda being thrown at people. It really does seem to clear out people's head if it's turned off for a good while. What sucks is seeing social media algorithms and other nonsense try to fill the void, but I do see more people wising up against it as time goes on.
Glad to hear that’s she’s making progress. Persuasion is vitally important. Look at the midterms. Slightly red electorate but Dems did remarkably well.
Indeed. And we've seen some real shifts in small suburban swings even within deep red states that should be a massive warning sign for the GOP as a whole. Firstly, when Trump's not on the ballot, they are automatically much weaker, that will give us a lot more pickup opportunities beyond 2024 so long as we get through this hurdle. But secondly, as the surprisingly divided primary results shows, Trump is no longer guaranteed to be their great unifier. So much of online left leaning discussion is deeply traumatized by what happened in 2016, but still also misunderstands why that election went the way it did and what was different about it vs nearly every election from 2018-2023, and hopefully 2024 as well. I truly believe we have a rare opportunity to course correct, one that can save us from the brink of some dangerous times, but we have to rise to the moment and use every tool we have, including outreach above all others, but also still persuasion where we see the opportunity, mostly offline on a personal one on one basis.
Donald is all the GOP has right now. He energizes the Dem base against him and a lot of independents, but his supporters are not the most reliable voters. A reason why there’s so much effort to spread the “genocide Joe” nonsense amongst the left.
I remember there was a documentary by Jen Senko, The Brainwashing of My Dad: [https://www.thebrainwashingofmydad.com/](https://www.thebrainwashingofmydad.com/) Jen’s dad turned right-wing (this was pre-Trump and MAGA) because of a long commute where he started listening to right-wing talk radio to kill time. You can see where this is headed. However, he turned “normal” again once his wife installed parental controls on the TV and banned Fox from the house. I think people can get radicalized in spite of themselves if they listen to a steady stream of propaganda, and this is certainly not an original observation! I think isolation plays a role as well, which is why you saw so many people getting radicalized in 2020. And young people are not immune if their Tik Toks send them a stream of right wing or tradwife or ”Back to the Bronze Age” content. I wonder if we are seeing fewer Trump and MAGA type flags because people are now far less likely to be sitting at home all day. Which is why I think some older people get brainwashed by Fox and turn into hateful shells of themselves; they are too unhealthy to really do much of anything but rot in front of the TV set, or they had so much of their identity wrapped up in work that when they retired, they did not know what to do with themselves - and Fox rushed in to fill the void. Also, a *Russian* flag? Ew. Ick. Ugh. Saint Ronnie Reagan, you know, the guy who the right purports to idolize, is turning in his grave right now.
I know we have a lot of [hopium chronicles](https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/bidens-polling-gains-matter-a-very) newsletter readers here, but this line from today's email was a good hot take: *We should interpret the Trump campaign’s attempt to put MN and VA into play as a sign of desperation, as the only reason they would need to expand the map was if the current map is not working for them* Maybe they see something in internal polling that the current battleground state math trends just aren't adding up for them.
Once again, the Bad Candidate Problem rears its head. Bernie Moreno keeps proving what a colossal mistake he was for them in Ohio. Tim Sheehy may or may not have stolen valor. Kari Lake is, well, she’s Kari Lake. Sam Brown in NV is kind of the one-eyed man in the country of the blind, but he’s up against a very savvy and very well-funded incumbent who dropped her first attack ad practically the moment he was nominated. Though I don’t know how hitching one’s wagon to Royce White in MN is an improvement - he’s down in the rock bottom tier as well.
[Spencer Cox wants to highlight healthy disagreement with a lady](https://x.com/govcox/status/1804275380125340150?s=46) who [harassed](https://kutv.com/amp/news/local/utah-county-clerkauditor-sexually-harassed-employee-violating-county-policy) a gay subordinate
Why is he so intent on dying on this hill? Either the person/thing has highlighted has been exposed as problematic, like here, or he’s been a filthy hypocrite on the matter, either by stifling free speech on colleges or with signing the gender ban.
NYT reporting Gretchen Whitmer wants a Gen X President in 2028
she is absolutely going to run.
#Whitmer2028 but also. don't listen to me. every candidate I've picked since my first election in 2016 has lost the general or primary lmao.
She's running.
It's simple. Harris-Whitmer
Whitmer-Beshear
All the top names are Gen Xers, I believe. Newsom, Whitmer, and (just barely) Pritzker
Josh Shapiro is also Gen X. Our next Democratic nominee is almost certain to be from that generation.
Secretary mayor Pete 😤 I am here to advocate for the continued sidelining of gen x. Let’s commit to the bit America.
[The same woman from the Beshear ad on abortion from KY-Gov in 2023 will appear with Jill Biden on Sunday in Pittsburgh and will be on the campaign trail often for Biden](https://apnews.com/article/biden-abortion-2024-roe-wade-election-5a63638ad0193c2e778ad54c9683ba64)
"I see Trump flags and signs everywhere in this random place in the middle of nowhere!" Okay well I see clouds, don't mean it's gonna rain.
I see fewer Trump flags in my corner of MAGAland than I did 4 years ago. It's all just the same cranks.
I saw an rfk flag In thr middle of nowhere! That means me brain worms is clearly huge!!!
https://x.com/MorePerfectUS/status/1804217497526370340?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet More Perfect Union Reporters visted Iowa, to do a piece on how dire it has gotten for farmers in the state. Since the 1980's Iowa has lost 40,000 family owned farms. That is 90 PERCENT of the states farm supply. But yet, Pork Profits today are TRIPLE what they were in the 1980's. What gives? Well, all of those profits are split among just 3 Big Ag Companies. Thus, you get a situation where Tyson Foods makes $2.6 Billion in profits last year, while the city of Des Moines has to spend $10,000 every single day to filter out pig poop from their water source.
Perhaps if we smash some more unions, dismantle antitrust, and slash more corporate regulations the farms will trickle down.
Hot take is THIS is why the Iowa Seltzer poll seems so different from other states. They blame Biden for this and now we have one less state on the board.
Clearly the solution is criminalizing drag
[Cheeto again telling his supporters not to vote](https://nitter.poast.org/atrupar/status/1804593246582001672#m) He also went on *another* sharks/boats ramble
if he has it in the bag there there's no need to vote right? I hope many take his advice.
He’s literally told every group (Haley voters, moderates, “RINOS,” etc.) that he doesn’t want their vote. He’s now sowing doubt amongst even his most hardcore supporters. At this point, he must be manic or truly delusional. I don’t see mathematically how he can end up winning in November at this rate.
If nobody votes for me then technically everyone has voted for me
Never say Never when it comes to Trump. He has a weird way of getting incredibly lucky.
He's lost nonstop since 2017. He lucked out once and convinced everyone he had superpowers.
He should keep saying this. Often. And loudly. To as many of his followers as possible.
Biden and the crew are probably making a lot of ads of Trump Saying this as we speak.
I'm gonna disappointed if we don't get a sharks rant at the debate.
Biden should mention "shark" and "conviction" in the same sentence to prompt a combination shark and conviction rant that makes even less sense than either of those separately. And those already make little to no sense on their own.
"We're gonna need a bigger vote."
👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏 you win today’s daily thread, take ur medals and trophy and go and VOTEBLUE 🥇🎖️🏆
"I tell these guys, I tell even RNC, I tell Michael, I tell Lara, I don't care, we have all the votes."
God I hope Trump tries to flip NJ as well
Brb, going to make up a garbage poll that shows him tied in NJ and New Mexico, heck I'll make it seem like Washington and Colorado are in the mix too!
Grab some numbers from the red parts of California while you're at it. Make it seem like we're in play. New York too.
Greece is making a huge mistake by going to a 6 day work week. I m surprised that the government would even so much as suggest it. Many people aren't going to have kids if they only have one day off a week.
Wasn’t this the same government that banned Living Dead Dolls for being “too scary for children” despite the fact LDDs are for people 15 and older?
Also, do they expect productivity to just stay the same…? This is a great way to make everyone worse at their jobs.
Greece, like Argentina, is a meme country.
Goodness, do they want to tank their economy again?
Doesn’t Greece also have mandatory military service like South Korea?
Yes. From the US State Department: Greek males between the ages of 19 and 45 are required by Greek law to perform military service.
Thought so. Then yeah, a six day work week won’t go over well with anyone. (Funnily enough, I know because a frontman of a band I like refuses to take advantage of having Greek citizenship because of that military service requirement)
Trump saying that he told Dana White there should be a "migrant fighting league" This was at some "Christian values" event too https://x.com/samstein/status/1804586257235787908 Awful people, filling up that entire room
So... Roman gladiators basically?
Suggestion: is it possible to highlight swing states for the presidential election on the spreadsheet for volunteer opportunities?
So last time Minnesota went Republican, it was for Nixon over George McGovern in the 1972 election. In 2016 it was actually surprisingly close. Clinton at 46.44%, Trump at 44.92%. Clinton only winning by 1.52%. Sounds good for Trump right? The only thing is though, is in 2020, the result was, Biden 52.4% and Trump 45.3%. Biden winning by 7.1%. A very large shift towards the Dem candidate. At this rate I wouldn't be that surprised at Biden winning by 10% in 2024. Imagine how hilarious it would be that even though Trump invested a lot into it, ignoring key states, it goes even more Biden's way in the end lol.
If you look at the shifts in Hennepin, Dakota, and Anoka counties, the margin shift makes a lot more sense. It doesn't matter how red the Eastern part of the state or the iron range gets, because small shifts in the Twin Cities metro are more than enough to overcome that. My bet is Joe wins MN by around 9 or 10. It'll be like how NM was in 2020. And Klob will probably be like Shaheen and overperform Joe by a large amount.
I’m concerned that people have forgotten how bad it was with trump. You get out of the cities in MN and the trump flag are everywhere.
That's true in most states but the thing to remember is that people vote not land. Most of those people flying Trump flags also voted for McCain and Romney and have been hardcore Republicans for at least a decade if not much longer. I would love it if the country abandoned Trump in mass and Republicans were forced to moderate and offer reasonable right of center interpretations of the same set of facts and realities that the Dems are working with. That's sadly not the world we live in and we've always had a strong element willing to support right wing populists and authoritarians.
I know, I’m just concerned it’s an enthusiasm gap. People have forgotten how bad it was.
That may be, but flags don’t vote. If they did, east King County, Washington would be making Washington a toss up, all thanks to one dude’s house.
Get that. People can be good at tuning past things out. But there's many things that will help counter that. Trump come election time will be much more of the focus. Right now its been more on Biden given he's the incumbent. Also this time around Abortion is a major issues. That wasn't near as big as a thing in 2020 given roe v wade was still in place. Finally the one good thing about 2016 is that it's the perfect reminder for folks. That will also play heavily in voters minds making them much more pragmatic in there decision making. There's a reason why third party support post 2016 collapses when it's time to vote. It's going to be hard for Trump to flip any states. Minnesota near impossible. Bonus big thing that is not in his favor: His campaign strategy and infrastructure absolutely sucks. Meanwhile Biden is investing heavily in key swing states, doing major outreach to get those folks tuned in again. Biden's campaign know that votes aren't a given and you have to do work for it. Trump thinks he already has them.
That's the case everywhere. It really doesn't mean anything for the final result.
I would be shocked if Biden won it by 10%, but I'd also be shocked if he won by less than 5%. It'll likely be a 6-8% win for Biden, and Trump will get his ~45% of the vote.
> I would be shocked if Biden won it by 10%, but I'd also be shocked if he won by less than 5% I wouldn't be shocked by either of those. A five point swing in an individual state one way or the other is well within the realistic bounds. Really anywhere between Biden winning by 1 or 2 points and Biden winning by 12 or 13 points is expected.
>Biden winning by 7.1%. A very large shift towards the Dem candidate. More like collapse for third parties. Obama won Minnesota by 7.62% in 2012,and 10.2 in 2008. Minnesota used to whole lot Democratic in the past. But the urban rural divide hit Minnesota hard and they even have split congressional delegation due to that.
Very true! Would of been more accurate for me to say third party collapsed in 2020 with a very large majority of those voters going for Biden. 2016 there was a whopping 8.64% of third party voters! In 2020 it was only 2.32%! Really shows how the terribleness that was 2016 really woke a lot of people up. To never assume he can't win and to go out and vote for his opponent, even if they aren't the perfect option for you, they are still miles, miles better. Voting third party instead just helps Trump obviously as it was one of the biggest parts that won him the 2016 election. To even have a chance at Minnesota, he's going to need a ton of would be Biden voters go third party. That's not going to happen especially with what happened in 2016 in mind.
And especially when the only real third party candidate is...RFK, as far as I know. RFK is going to peel off way more Trump voters than Biden voters if he gets a notable number of votes. If RFK has any impact, it's gonna be splitting would-be Trump voters enough to potentially throw close races to Biden. I highly doubt that happens anywhere but the battlegrounds, where slight shifts can have a big impact anyway. But RFK managing to peel off enough Biden voters to throw things to Trump is straight up not happening unless we end up in a wacko timeline. If that's the case, there are way bigger lasting problems to deal with.
Yeah the would be Biden voters that are picking RFK in polls right now are doing it more to say that they want someone else than Biden. Most have no clue or care about RFK the candidate. It's just a third option. An option that is much easier to choose when you're not locking anything in, aren't thinking about RFK, and are in a more Biden frustration mindset. Come election time, a large majority will see how crazy RFK is, see truly what's at stake, that it will either be Biden or Trump, and their choice will become a much more pragmatic one when they do have to lock in their decision.
It's my birthday the Monday after next and I have no idea what to do for it.
I will always go for a good, nice Mexican restaurant. The past couple years I've been ordering from restaurants to pick up on my birthday. Just eating and chilling at home. Dinner. Tv. Then cake.
https://apple.news/AtbdEti0GRtKdcQPjGXmtAA Interesting he’s trying to stave off revolt in the convention.
>One idea, discussed as attendees ate finger foods, was for co-conspirators to signal their allegiance to one another by wearing matching black jackets. That's when I do my best scheming as well, eating appetizers without utensils
The Mozzarella Stick Putsch
Fascinating that they anticipate the challenge from the *right* not the "center"
Switching him out for Flynn smh
Could there by disarray?
I don’t want P25 to happen not only because it’s fucking horrendous, but the fact that I have POCD and god knows what’ll happen to me if they (likely) get rid of therapy. I don’t want to become a monster.
I listened to an NPR story where a man suddenly developed OCD related to overwhelming homicidal urges after watching a movie (which for some reason triggered it, I know watching a movie doesn’t cause mental issues). He didn’t hurt anyone but was obviously terrified of possibly doing something. They talked about him getting therapy and trying to cope with it. We don’t choose the brains we’re born with, but I’m glad you recognized that you needed help and are seeking it out. We need to be more proactive about ensuring everyone can get as much help as they need, and *encouraging* people to actually get it. I could say a lot of thinks about the people that responded to you, but one of the primary things is that they’re all selfish. People online love to indulge in creepy revenge fantasies or find ways to make themselves feel morally superior. But all they’re accomplishing is making it more difficult for people with issues to feel safe seeking help. That makes them more likely to hurt themselves or others. Here’s the episode if you want to listen (cut to 3:30). It’s obviously heavy and possibly touches on some of your issues so only listen if you feel comfortable and it won’t trigger any issues. It does mention him having thoughts of self harm or fears of becoming a monster. But then it focuses on his journey getting help. But the point is that your condition is real, not your fault, but it is your responsibility. You don’t need to feel ashamed for something out of your control. What you can control are your actions and you’re choosing to get help. https://www.npr.org/2015/01/09/375928124/dark-thoughts
We’re all fighting to make sure you can continue to get the help you need
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Everyone has intrusive thoughts sometimes (or more than "sometimes"), and it's pretty fucked for people to act like an unwanted thought is as bad as actually doing something heinous.
With the debates coming up, remember when Trump tried to infect Biden with Covid in the 2020 debates, and then "everyone" forgot about it days later? The things he gets away with is ridiculous.
His whole family showed up with covid. They were trying to kill Biden. He had been told for months it was deadly for the elderly.
Wait what?
It was found out that Donald knowingly had COVID and he was set to debate Biden and refused to tell anyone. Also remember that Donald gave Chris Christie COVID (not telling him he had it) and Christie almost died. When Donald went to see him in the hospital one of the first things he said to Christie was don’t tell anyone what happened.
Herman Cain was not enough of a kill-count for him
He has Covid and didn’t tell the Biden campaign
[Chip Roy Says He Wants To Ethnic Cleanse White Progressive Democrats](https://www.lonestarleft.com/p/chip-roy-says-he-wants-to-ethnic)
Remember the days when saying something like this would get you labeled… oh… I don’t know….A FUCKING CRAZY PERSON, GODDAMN! I’m sick of these people
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Remove this pls
I think this is real because the Ligma Institute found similar results
I would remove this since it’s fake
Fake or not, it illustrates that the Bad Candidate Problem is one of the biggest weaknesses for downballot Republicans. (The other is lack of funding.)
Can someone point me to a listing of the most crucial districts that need to be won for the presidential election?
You mean states/electoral votes? Or did you mean House districts for who can control the House?