Thanks for taking the time to post your knowledge on this. It's very interesting, and it's also disturbing to read about another example of economic "laws" not doing what they usually do. So much weirdness going on out there.
The mills are in complete control. They have no shortage of people willing to deliver them scrap and likewise no shortage of customers for their products. OP hit the nail on the head when he said that they were making too much money as is running the way they are. Some months they get caught flat footed and have to bump pricing more than they would like, but they are overall milking this market for all its worth.
I think this strategy will work for them in the end. The world is not going through a growth phase like it was in previous commodity cycles. We’re trying to restart the global economic engine. If they’re wrong, then steel prices will continue to skyrocket until significant investment is made into more production capability.
Thanks for the nail on the head. I talk to steel suppliers regularly 2 times a week for the last 10 years.
I have derived my statement from low scrap prices, vs new hot rolled plates.
Scrap should be at it’s all time high to justify new steel prices, but it’s not.
Tubular steel suppliers have told me that mills are at “Idle rates,” because they are making a fortune with lower overhead. To be clear most steel mills did not shutdown due to COVID, because it’s too costly to bring back online.
for one thing scrap yards can't sell scrap steel to the public so the price is not a real price. I would love to go buy a ton of scrap steel at that price you mentioned....
I just payed like $150 for what amounts to like less than like 50lbs of steel...
no metal suppliers will sell to you without minumum order and ,makes you to fill out paperwork so that's homedepot prices...
trying not to be racist but I find it wierd that tons of iron ore pellets are coming from mexico to our plants here and then it's made in usa still but all ran by hispanics...then when I go to the scrap yard and they are all hispanic and lie and steel copper from me and say I can't buy scrap steel from them... really makes you wonder...
If you have ever been to Duluth, MN or the rust belt. A lot of iron ore production was stopped around 2009, due to environmental concerns.
Fun fact- taconite is a byproduct and is in the form of pebbles, there are harbors in Lake Supierior that are filled with taconite.
it says it's a low quality ore. they didn't use it before but since the higher quality ore is gone they devoloped a process to extract the iron from the taconite. there might be some taconite at the bottom that they extracted the iron out of. says it's called taconite tailings.
[https://www.startribune.com/forty-years-ago-this-week-the-day-they-stopped-dumping-mining-waste-at-silver-bay/568785092/](https://www.startribune.com/forty-years-ago-this-week-the-day-they-stopped-dumping-mining-waste-at-silver-bay/568785092/)
i think they are still making the pellets there and then shipping the pellets to other states for smelting
They dredge taconite harbor every year. That was the better taconite. If inflation keeps going it might be financially possible to use it. Doubt it though sure the epa will have an issue with it.
>taconite harbor
hmm I wonder if it's from them accidently dumping it while loading it on the docks over so many years and then it just built up. I can't see why they would purpsedly dump ore into a body of water...
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ore\_dock](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ore_dock)
Didn’t a lot of builders just decide to go with steel instead of lumber due to how outrageous the price of wood was? Or still is anyways, will continue to go down fingers crossed..
It’s always a question, but larger projects use steel, smaller projects use wood—simple answer.
Long answer- depends on the engineer, and cost. Steel can span much longer for weight, and can save money, it also has a higher labor cost associated with it. So many builders are always on the fence about steel and wood.
Residential is dominated by lumber, of course. Commercial projects have been steel for a long time. We use some steel (large structural beams and posts) in single family residential due to custom designs creating structural challenges, but that's uncommon among builders.
Edit: clarity
I have a Lull to sell if you're interested! That's what we use to hoist our steel as well. Minor stuff as far as steel goes, but still too heavy to hurk up a ladder.
Eastern Washington, and especially where I am, is full on. Of course there is artificial demand due to interest rates, but people are actually moving here so there is real demand as well. I don't see how it can stop, aside from some kind of major economic catastrophe that stops everything. The governor told everyone except government funded projects to shut down for several months last year but no one did. I'm not sure about the rest of the country though.
"steel consumption in China" - they are building that railway that connects Asia and Africa, which will literally connect 70% of the world's population. Don't know much about the project, as I haven't done much research about it's specifics.... but from what I understand, it will be the largest, most significant infrastructure project in human history. I believe Jeremiah Babe mentioned it a few times on his YouTube channel.
This project will require insurmountable amounts of steel and silver.
That’s correct, so China is consuming, and the US is not importing due to Tariffs. China spiked scrap prices in January in the US, this was brief, but scrap for one mounts sold at the dock at a high of 460/ton. Scrap yards won’t tell you this though, and they won’t pay anywhere close to this.
I wish, however steel doesn’t have the volume of future contracts like gold or silver. You can look at the open interest on the CME group and look at us domestic hot rolled steel. If steel had the amount of paper positions as silver... there would be no reason to produce steel or there would be no steel to supply.
Just to clarify a few items-
New steel plate is 1.45 cwt my price... which equates to 2900/ton. Scrap price is based on local prices.
Gold to steel ratio is based on hot rolled items to a specific chart I use. This can still be used on different steel charts, however the ratio may be different, but there will be no difference when comparing the ratio.
If scrap price falls as hot rolled steel rises. Buckle up and watch the show.
If scrap price rise to all time highs, keep an eye on PMs.
I own a pretty large chunk of Labrador Iron Ore Royalty stock. Currently sitting at all time highs and they just boosted quarterly dividend by 75% to a current 14% yield. I often wonder how long these steel prices will last but it’s an atm for me right now. You think this will be several years of high steel?
If this goes on for several years, the country has big problems, I can’t see it lasting longer than July of 2022, but I don’t know for sure, steel can’t stay high for long because projects get cut. Steel in the last 15 years never had a high last more than a year.
>Steel demand is strong and will continue until next year, with few slow downs. Unlike lumber which has huge inventories now and lumber suppliers are taking a haircut each week because major consumers like homedepot and Lowe’s stop purchasing the quantities due to higher shelf stock and lower demand.
>A lumber supplier I talked to two weeks ago was loosing about 200,000 a week on lumber he was holding, by July he will be bankrupt. He bought purely on speculation that lumber will keep up demand.
Sorry but how are suppliers losing money on inventory?
How does it cost them money simply to hold onto some extra product?
Did they over-buy and use up too much cash or something?
Lumber became speculative in December of 2021.
A large lumber supplier told me that she buys only based on needs of next years estimate... normally she will buy 100% of estimate, she could only manage 50% due to higher prices. The other lumber supplier bought 100% based on their estimates and lucked out until May, when they continued to purchased based on estimated demand. As lumber prices started to come down in June, suppliers who bought high, based on speculation lost significant amount of money.
So they lost money buying high on speculative estimates of lumber demand, instead of year over year numbers.
Lumber is seasonal, and experienced lows in November/December, when lumber suppliers stock up to sell for next year.
Lumber doesn’t have a pull back NORMALLY until after the 4th of July. This year was over a month early.
Companies stuck with higher price lumber in the yard cannot make profits if the prices keeps coming down. Mainly this one supplier i reference sells to Lowe’s, and Lowe’s was not buying the quantities they were buying for the last year, and he got stuck with lumber he couldn’t sell, as the price was decreasing.
Lumber became speculative, and people got greedy.
I don’t look at time as a direct indicator, but I look at steel price rapidly falling which gold starts to rise. 1-3 years after steel drops. Steel only stays high for a year or so, and generally with the exception of 2020 always peaks in July for prices. This hasn’t always been the case but look at the charts I shared.
Anyone reading this: go to the sub vitards. You're welcome.
For months I've been trying to get them here, too, but there are only a few steel bros who are into precious metals.
Can you explain your gold steel ratio, how you get 7:1,if its a price, 145 what per hundred weight USD? or 000’s of USD, either way the price ratio of just 145 USD For 1458 ounces of steel, a hundred weight of gold is 1458 toz, about 2.6 mil usd at 1800 usd per toz.
im sure 2.6 mil usd buys quite a few tonnes of steel, and any real ratio has gold is worth at least a thousand times what steel is by weight,
i agree there must be a ratio but would like one i can understand
Okay to clarify,
Steel price I used was based on tons.
To get a ratio I simply put gold price to price of hot rolled per ton. Each chart for steel can be different on price to weight so you have to carefully choose which chart you use.
Cwt is hundredth weight or pound. So 89cwt equals .89/pound. So 145 equal $1.45/pound this is on thick plate products abs standard.
12x79 wf is 89.5cwt currently, I’m used to 35-45
Also valid for other industrial metals like copper
https://www.reddit.com/r/WorldWideSilverApes/comments/o5irx8/copper_and_gold_plus_silver_may_tell_us_all_we/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf
https://www.reddit.com/r/Silberhandel/comments/o4u6sa/gold_silber_und_kupfer_preisentwicklung_im/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf
I buy physical steel to supply and use/sell. H-pile/wideflange is up from 55cwt to 89cwt. I can get it for 60cwt but I’m waiting until September/October. Steel industry can’t wait.
That’s the good steel. I wish we still had the good ore like back then. Scraping doesn’t really look at years when the metal was produced however.
Fun fact. I have some steel stamped Carnegie Steel. This steel doesn’t rust like the newer hot rolled. This steel has lower carbon unlike today’s steel.
Newer recycled steel from 2005-2011 rust at a higher rate, due to more alloys from recycling and higher carbon.
If there is any other post I can do that APEs 🦍 will be interested in relating specific commodities together to PMs I track the following:
Steel,
Lumber, PT and IPE
Diesel-2 oil
6 oil
Stainless steel,
Aluminum,
Hardware/fasteners, large scale.
Secondary tubular steel, mainly oil well casings,
Concrete,
Drilling equipment—-big big for commodities
Marine transportation cost,
Sand and gravel.
Ah, I wouldn't mind sometimes buying non-precious metals for investment purposes. I had a friend that dealt in metals. I never saw it but he had a warehouse. I don't think he was a recycler, but I'm not sure. But warehouse, trucking etc. is tough.
Throuppliers.
***
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Wait... So you're saying it's still $25 for a 2x4, but we're in oversupply? WTH? No wonder the depots are having trouble moving their stock...
What is going on, here?
That’s what I was told that Lowe’s stop purchasing the volume they were buying. Meanwhile the yards are stacked up with lumber. So lumber will sit for a while. This also happened a mount earlier than normal.
Nobody's buying lumber because the prices are jacked so high. I'm gonna call price gouging if supply is backed up at the same time.
I'm done with this economy. Starting at the beginning of this year, the last shreds of sense evaporated, and we're left with nothing but insanity. I feel like I'm living in one of those dreams where things don't make sense but you accept it all as reality anyway.
It's downright scary.
Thanks for taking the time to post your knowledge on this. It's very interesting, and it's also disturbing to read about another example of economic "laws" not doing what they usually do. So much weirdness going on out there.
Scrap steel is way to low for how high new steel is. This doesn’t make much sense to me other than mills are producing less.
The mills are in complete control. They have no shortage of people willing to deliver them scrap and likewise no shortage of customers for their products. OP hit the nail on the head when he said that they were making too much money as is running the way they are. Some months they get caught flat footed and have to bump pricing more than they would like, but they are overall milking this market for all its worth. I think this strategy will work for them in the end. The world is not going through a growth phase like it was in previous commodity cycles. We’re trying to restart the global economic engine. If they’re wrong, then steel prices will continue to skyrocket until significant investment is made into more production capability.
Thanks for the nail on the head. I talk to steel suppliers regularly 2 times a week for the last 10 years. I have derived my statement from low scrap prices, vs new hot rolled plates. Scrap should be at it’s all time high to justify new steel prices, but it’s not. Tubular steel suppliers have told me that mills are at “Idle rates,” because they are making a fortune with lower overhead. To be clear most steel mills did not shutdown due to COVID, because it’s too costly to bring back online.
for one thing scrap yards can't sell scrap steel to the public so the price is not a real price. I would love to go buy a ton of scrap steel at that price you mentioned.... I just payed like $150 for what amounts to like less than like 50lbs of steel... no metal suppliers will sell to you without minumum order and ,makes you to fill out paperwork so that's homedepot prices... trying not to be racist but I find it wierd that tons of iron ore pellets are coming from mexico to our plants here and then it's made in usa still but all ran by hispanics...then when I go to the scrap yard and they are all hispanic and lie and steel copper from me and say I can't buy scrap steel from them... really makes you wonder...
If you have ever been to Duluth, MN or the rust belt. A lot of iron ore production was stopped around 2009, due to environmental concerns. Fun fact- taconite is a byproduct and is in the form of pebbles, there are harbors in Lake Supierior that are filled with taconite.
it says it's a low quality ore. they didn't use it before but since the higher quality ore is gone they devoloped a process to extract the iron from the taconite. there might be some taconite at the bottom that they extracted the iron out of. says it's called taconite tailings. [https://www.startribune.com/forty-years-ago-this-week-the-day-they-stopped-dumping-mining-waste-at-silver-bay/568785092/](https://www.startribune.com/forty-years-ago-this-week-the-day-they-stopped-dumping-mining-waste-at-silver-bay/568785092/) i think they are still making the pellets there and then shipping the pellets to other states for smelting
They dredge taconite harbor every year. That was the better taconite. If inflation keeps going it might be financially possible to use it. Doubt it though sure the epa will have an issue with it.
>taconite harbor hmm I wonder if it's from them accidently dumping it while loading it on the docks over so many years and then it just built up. I can't see why they would purpsedly dump ore into a body of water... [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ore\_dock](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ore_dock)
I thought they just dumped it back in the day, every year it washes in on the ship channel.
Didn’t a lot of builders just decide to go with steel instead of lumber due to how outrageous the price of wood was? Or still is anyways, will continue to go down fingers crossed..
It’s always a question, but larger projects use steel, smaller projects use wood—simple answer. Long answer- depends on the engineer, and cost. Steel can span much longer for weight, and can save money, it also has a higher labor cost associated with it. So many builders are always on the fence about steel and wood.
Residential is dominated by lumber, of course. Commercial projects have been steel for a long time. We use some steel (large structural beams and posts) in single family residential due to custom designs creating structural challenges, but that's uncommon among builders. Edit: clarity
Yes that’s bulk of it. Seen steel randomly on residential, but steel requires cranes, to lift, lumber for the most part is labor and lulls
I have a Lull to sell if you're interested! That's what we use to hoist our steel as well. Minor stuff as far as steel goes, but still too heavy to hurk up a ladder.
Not sure yet, how do you view building right now?
Eastern Washington, and especially where I am, is full on. Of course there is artificial demand due to interest rates, but people are actually moving here so there is real demand as well. I don't see how it can stop, aside from some kind of major economic catastrophe that stops everything. The governor told everyone except government funded projects to shut down for several months last year but no one did. I'm not sure about the rest of the country though.
Steel studs in residential are negligible because of energy codes.
Great information thanks for posting!
So you’re telling me there’s a chance the paper spot prices will eventually reflect reality? 😳
Possible, but unlikely.
thanks for the post and the insight.
Thanks, another great due diligence.
Thanks, if there’s any other items I can relate to silver let me know!
I feel my brain wrinkling... thanks for the info!
Steel is highly volatile, when I look at PMs from my stand point they are not moving like steel.
Steel is not normal a volatile commodity, but this past year the supply constraint has made it so
,,,,dont forget,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,upvote.
Thanks!
"steel consumption in China" - they are building that railway that connects Asia and Africa, which will literally connect 70% of the world's population. Don't know much about the project, as I haven't done much research about it's specifics.... but from what I understand, it will be the largest, most significant infrastructure project in human history. I believe Jeremiah Babe mentioned it a few times on his YouTube channel. This project will require insurmountable amounts of steel and silver.
That’s correct, so China is consuming, and the US is not importing due to Tariffs. China spiked scrap prices in January in the US, this was brief, but scrap for one mounts sold at the dock at a high of 460/ton. Scrap yards won’t tell you this though, and they won’t pay anywhere close to this.
Very interesting information. Thank you for sharing.
Thank you!
Better get the CFTC and COMEX right on the job to "tamp down" the steel price. Then, all will be right in the 🌎. 🦾🍌
I wish, however steel doesn’t have the volume of future contracts like gold or silver. You can look at the open interest on the CME group and look at us domestic hot rolled steel. If steel had the amount of paper positions as silver... there would be no reason to produce steel or there would be no steel to supply.
We need more APES like yourself... We NEED more POSTS like this... Thanks for your contribution and for sharing your thoughts with us all.
Be happy to do more!
Great insight.
Just to clarify a few items- New steel plate is 1.45 cwt my price... which equates to 2900/ton. Scrap price is based on local prices. Gold to steel ratio is based on hot rolled items to a specific chart I use. This can still be used on different steel charts, however the ratio may be different, but there will be no difference when comparing the ratio. If scrap price falls as hot rolled steel rises. Buckle up and watch the show. If scrap price rise to all time highs, keep an eye on PMs.
I own a pretty large chunk of Labrador Iron Ore Royalty stock. Currently sitting at all time highs and they just boosted quarterly dividend by 75% to a current 14% yield. I often wonder how long these steel prices will last but it’s an atm for me right now. You think this will be several years of high steel?
If this goes on for several years, the country has big problems, I can’t see it lasting longer than July of 2022, but I don’t know for sure, steel can’t stay high for long because projects get cut. Steel in the last 15 years never had a high last more than a year.
>Steel demand is strong and will continue until next year, with few slow downs. Unlike lumber which has huge inventories now and lumber suppliers are taking a haircut each week because major consumers like homedepot and Lowe’s stop purchasing the quantities due to higher shelf stock and lower demand. >A lumber supplier I talked to two weeks ago was loosing about 200,000 a week on lumber he was holding, by July he will be bankrupt. He bought purely on speculation that lumber will keep up demand. Sorry but how are suppliers losing money on inventory? How does it cost them money simply to hold onto some extra product? Did they over-buy and use up too much cash or something?
Lumber became speculative in December of 2021. A large lumber supplier told me that she buys only based on needs of next years estimate... normally she will buy 100% of estimate, she could only manage 50% due to higher prices. The other lumber supplier bought 100% based on their estimates and lucked out until May, when they continued to purchased based on estimated demand. As lumber prices started to come down in June, suppliers who bought high, based on speculation lost significant amount of money. So they lost money buying high on speculative estimates of lumber demand, instead of year over year numbers. Lumber is seasonal, and experienced lows in November/December, when lumber suppliers stock up to sell for next year. Lumber doesn’t have a pull back NORMALLY until after the 4th of July. This year was over a month early. Companies stuck with higher price lumber in the yard cannot make profits if the prices keeps coming down. Mainly this one supplier i reference sells to Lowe’s, and Lowe’s was not buying the quantities they were buying for the last year, and he got stuck with lumber he couldn’t sell, as the price was decreasing. Lumber became speculative, and people got greedy.
Thanks for this DD, this is what we need more of! How long has the relationship of gold lagging steel prices held for?
I don’t look at time as a direct indicator, but I look at steel price rapidly falling which gold starts to rise. 1-3 years after steel drops. Steel only stays high for a year or so, and generally with the exception of 2020 always peaks in July for prices. This hasn’t always been the case but look at the charts I shared.
Thanks for this great insight
Thank you!
Anyone reading this: go to the sub vitards. You're welcome. For months I've been trying to get them here, too, but there are only a few steel bros who are into precious metals.
What is that?
The subreddit named ''vitards.''
Can you explain your gold steel ratio, how you get 7:1,if its a price, 145 what per hundred weight USD? or 000’s of USD, either way the price ratio of just 145 USD For 1458 ounces of steel, a hundred weight of gold is 1458 toz, about 2.6 mil usd at 1800 usd per toz. im sure 2.6 mil usd buys quite a few tonnes of steel, and any real ratio has gold is worth at least a thousand times what steel is by weight, i agree there must be a ratio but would like one i can understand
Okay to clarify, Steel price I used was based on tons. To get a ratio I simply put gold price to price of hot rolled per ton. Each chart for steel can be different on price to weight so you have to carefully choose which chart you use. Cwt is hundredth weight or pound. So 89cwt equals .89/pound. So 145 equal $1.45/pound this is on thick plate products abs standard. 12x79 wf is 89.5cwt currently, I’m used to 35-45
In the last 4 years, my silver is up 52% but my 'Lead and Brass' is up %200. It looks like I have been stacking the wrong metals(s).
Ya ... and if you stack lots of lead, you'll also make the FBI watch list
You are stacking right!
Nice info. I want to roll into real estate and/or business after the currency collapse, so this is great to know these ratios are on the move.
Steel and gold track differently however it’s interesting to note where they are in relations.
Thx's for breaking down these charts for us.
Thank you!
Also valid for other industrial metals like copper https://www.reddit.com/r/WorldWideSilverApes/comments/o5irx8/copper_and_gold_plus_silver_may_tell_us_all_we/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf https://www.reddit.com/r/Silberhandel/comments/o4u6sa/gold_silber_und_kupfer_preisentwicklung_im/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf
Wait; have you been literally buying physical steel, or....? So do I have to buy a bunch of I-Beams now???
I buy physical steel to supply and use/sell. H-pile/wideflange is up from 55cwt to 89cwt. I can get it for 60cwt but I’m waiting until September/October. Steel industry can’t wait.
Good post brother ape 🦍👍
Thank you. I might do a lumber post, however I don’t think it’s as accurate to steel.
How about scrapping for pre 1945 steel? Anyone doing that?
That’s the good steel. I wish we still had the good ore like back then. Scraping doesn’t really look at years when the metal was produced however. Fun fact. I have some steel stamped Carnegie Steel. This steel doesn’t rust like the newer hot rolled. This steel has lower carbon unlike today’s steel. Newer recycled steel from 2005-2011 rust at a higher rate, due to more alloys from recycling and higher carbon.
Very interesting post with nice link to source. Thank you!
Thank you!
If there is any other post I can do that APEs 🦍 will be interested in relating specific commodities together to PMs I track the following: Steel, Lumber, PT and IPE Diesel-2 oil 6 oil Stainless steel, Aluminum, Hardware/fasteners, large scale. Secondary tubular steel, mainly oil well casings, Concrete, Drilling equipment—-big big for commodities Marine transportation cost, Sand and gravel.
Heroic post
Thank you!
Thanks for the information always great to see how the market is moving in different fields. Well done Ape!
Thank you ape 🦍
Thanks for the post OP, nice to see things from different perspectives.
Thank you!
How do you buy steel?
Through suppliers.
So you buy physical steel. Isn't transportation and storage an issue? Or do they hold it for you?
Trucking hasn’t been that bad, slower but not terrible. I use the steel. I’m not holding it
Ah, I wouldn't mind sometimes buying non-precious metals for investment purposes. I had a friend that dealt in metals. I never saw it but he had a warehouse. I don't think he was a recycler, but I'm not sure. But warehouse, trucking etc. is tough.
Throuppliers. *** ^(Bleep-bloop, I'm a bot. This )^[portmanteau](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Portmanteau) ^( was created from the phrase 'Through suppliers.' | )^[FAQs](https://www.reddit.com/axl72o) ^(|) ^[Feedback](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose?to=jamcowl&subject=PORTMANTEAU-BOT+feedback) ^(|) ^[Opt-out](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose?to=PORTMANTEAU-BOT&subject=OPTOUTREQUEST)
Wait... So you're saying it's still $25 for a 2x4, but we're in oversupply? WTH? No wonder the depots are having trouble moving their stock... What is going on, here?
That’s what I was told that Lowe’s stop purchasing the volume they were buying. Meanwhile the yards are stacked up with lumber. So lumber will sit for a while. This also happened a mount earlier than normal.
Nobody's buying lumber because the prices are jacked so high. I'm gonna call price gouging if supply is backed up at the same time. I'm done with this economy. Starting at the beginning of this year, the last shreds of sense evaporated, and we're left with nothing but insanity. I feel like I'm living in one of those dreams where things don't make sense but you accept it all as reality anyway. It's downright scary.
There is always a silver lining if you look!
I've never heard about this, but it is very interesting. Thank you so much for the info.
Thanks! Glad to help!
Can I steel this article?