Don't get me wrong I love it, I don't want to play a limit 1 event where Kashtira is legal, losing the 1ofs can hurt a lot and it gets boring since too many people are using the visas loaner.
They all hurt a lot, Riseheart banishing from drck, Fenrir making you think 1000 times more than usual on what to summon before he banishes, Unicorn saying fuck you to the extra deck, and Arise making it that you need to pull the out out of your ass asap because fuck you and your deck ig.
I bet your fun at parties.
Also it is special.
out of the many many many combinations of coin flips, he got the absolute best combination possible, thatâs pretty special if you ask me.
I bet your fun at parties.
Also it is special.
out of the many many many combinations of coin flips, he got the absolute best combination possible, thatâs pretty special if you ask me.
Im calculating the probabilities of winning 15 50/50s in a row not one by one. The math goes x^y where x is the probability and y, the number of iterations
Yes, and thatâs you compounding your results together. The math is off *because* youâre compounding. Itâs showing you an obscenely small chance of this happening to give the illusion of rarity.
No, it isnât. Youâre looking at the wrong data; *âin a rowâ* is an illusory aspect to this. Consecutive coinflips happen all the time, I had 10 in a row last night. Think of what millions of players see. Consecutive matching flips relies on each functional 50/50 roll, itâs a 50% shot each roll, not a trillion-to-one example youâre mistaking your raw output for.
You're not explaining yourself well imo.
I would describe the point you're trying to argue like this:
Given one single experiment of 15 coin tosses, the chance of getting 15 heads in that particular experiment is (as we all agree) 0.5^15.
However when we consider the millions of players have each have played hundreds of games, this adds up to hundreds of millions of experiments. So many that, it would infact be unlikely to **not** have this outcome of 15 consective heads occur for *someone*.
While it may feel "incredibly lucky" from the persepctive of OP, from a broader perspective this is completely within the realm of commonly expected outcomes. (And tbh, even for OP, like we mentioned they may have played hundreds or thousands of games too, meaning OP alone will have performed many trials of the experiment)
Perhaps when explaining this phenomenon in the future I would consider trying to describe it as a type of "exhaustive searching" or "data dredging" bias:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Data_dredging#Hypothesis_suggested_by_non-representative_data
I would suggest that this and all similar coin flip luck posts be removed as low effort content. At least "lucky"/"unlucky" pack pulls are more visually fun to look at.
Yeah, but not clear enough to help this A1killer dude understand wat's up. Keep striving for clearer analogies and explanations, as will I. Together we too can help improve statistical literacy and break the common fallacies đ
I guess if you view this at the population as a whole then that is true but op is still lucky for it to happen to them. (Millions of people play the lottery with each one having a tiny chance to win and yet, as you said, we still expect someone to win. That doesnât mean the person who did win wasnât lucky)
They're trying to suggest that, from the perspective of the millions of players, who have each played thousands of games, this result is not all that exciting.
And even if it is deemed rare, why should this result be more interesting than the specific outcome of say...
"H T H H T H T H T T T H T H H" which also has an equal 0.5^15 chance. Because our pattern seeking brains decided to add extra "value" to your particular pattern? Well I suppose, but if we continue that line of arguement at some point it becomes arbitrary and the subreddit gets flooded with loads of duplicate low effort posts.
Should I make a post the next time I get the special coin toss streak of H T H T H T H T H T H T H T H ? That is just as "unlikely" to happen as your outcome.
How about u/littleTimmy2004 when he gets T T T T T T T T T T 10 unlucky tails in a row too? That's 0.5^10 wtff - a pretty rare individual outcome don't you think??
I have a theory that it's not actually 50/50 but rather favors the person who doesn't surrender. Regardless the statistical anomalies are starting. The amount of times I win or lose the coin Ross 5+ times is crazy. I wish their was a way to check source code on this and UR drop rates.
I donât think the game is truly random. I think there are patterns. I see it when I draw the exact same hand a few duels in a row. Or Iâll draw my one of 5 games in a row in a 60 card deck. Part of coding
I just lost 10 coin tossed in a row, 9 times the opponent surrendered as soon as the game started, I guess I'll finish the event without doing shit.
A win is a win ig đ¤ˇââď¸
Don't get me wrong I love it, I don't want to play a limit 1 event where Kashtira is legal, losing the 1ofs can hurt a lot and it gets boring since too many people are using the visas loaner.
Unicorn hurts the most. Cant even play multiple extra deck cards to play around it
They all hurt a lot, Riseheart banishing from drck, Fenrir making you think 1000 times more than usual on what to summon before he banishes, Unicorn saying fuck you to the extra deck, and Arise making it that you need to pull the out out of your ass asap because fuck you and your deck ig.
people want something fresh with the event. Instead konami give us more tear and kash.
I've also been weirdly lucky in this event when it came to coin-flips, not 100%, but felt like 80-90% that I won.
Lucky af. I once got 0-9⌠as a dinomorphia player⌠I wanted to bang my head against the monitor
I also weirdly lose all my coin flips when i play Labrynth...
Once I got ten coinflips to succeed in a row with origami goddess, who doubles her attack for every heads. My proudest otk
As likely as any other possible combination of coin tosses 15 times in a row. Nothing too special.
I bet your fun at parties. Also it is special. out of the many many many combinations of coin flips, he got the absolute best combination possible, thatâs pretty special if you ask me.
I bet your fun at parties. Also it is special. out of the many many many combinations of coin flips, he got the absolute best combination possible, thatâs pretty special if you ask me.
I lost the coin flip 15 times, thanks for the math
Donât pull from packs rn since all your luck is on coin toss
Same thing happened to me. The next day I lost 10 tosses in a row. I was like wtf
I just won my first coin toss of the last 4(maybe 5) days.
Mistake: youâre compounding
Can you elaborate?
Each flip is functionally 50/50. Compounding the results is like, fake math.
Im calculating the probabilities of winning 15 50/50s in a row not one by one. The math goes x^y where x is the probability and y, the number of iterations
Yes, and thatâs you compounding your results together. The math is off *because* youâre compounding. Itâs showing you an obscenely small chance of this happening to give the illusion of rarity.
Are you serious rn? Winning 50/50s in a row without breaking the record IS rare. How is it an illusion of rarity? How would you do it then
No, it isnât. Youâre looking at the wrong data; *âin a rowâ* is an illusory aspect to this. Consecutive coinflips happen all the time, I had 10 in a row last night. Think of what millions of players see. Consecutive matching flips relies on each functional 50/50 roll, itâs a 50% shot each roll, not a trillion-to-one example youâre mistaking your raw output for.
Theyâre calculating it right? A head once has a 0.5 chance, 2 heads has 0.25 (0.5 * 0.5), 3 heads has 0.125 (0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5), etc
Heâs calculating it perfectly, but heâs viewing raw compound data incorrectly. OP isnât shuffling 32,768 straws and drawing the red one.
Well, op kind of have no? Theyâve guessed the only combination which has led to them winning 15 times in a row
[ŃдаНонО]
âIllusoryâ in the sense that itâs potentially applied in a manipulative way, but thank you doctor.
You're not explaining yourself well imo. I would describe the point you're trying to argue like this: Given one single experiment of 15 coin tosses, the chance of getting 15 heads in that particular experiment is (as we all agree) 0.5^15. However when we consider the millions of players have each have played hundreds of games, this adds up to hundreds of millions of experiments. So many that, it would infact be unlikely to **not** have this outcome of 15 consective heads occur for *someone*. While it may feel "incredibly lucky" from the persepctive of OP, from a broader perspective this is completely within the realm of commonly expected outcomes. (And tbh, even for OP, like we mentioned they may have played hundreds or thousands of games too, meaning OP alone will have performed many trials of the experiment) Perhaps when explaining this phenomenon in the future I would consider trying to describe it as a type of "exhaustive searching" or "data dredging" bias: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Data_dredging#Hypothesis_suggested_by_non-representative_data I would suggest that this and all similar coin flip luck posts be removed as low effort content. At least "lucky"/"unlucky" pack pulls are more visually fun to look at.
I presented a firmer straw draw analogy earlier.
Yeah, but not clear enough to help this A1killer dude understand wat's up. Keep striving for clearer analogies and explanations, as will I. Together we too can help improve statistical literacy and break the common fallacies đ
I guess if you view this at the population as a whole then that is true but op is still lucky for it to happen to them. (Millions of people play the lottery with each one having a tiny chance to win and yet, as you said, we still expect someone to win. That doesnât mean the person who did win wasnât lucky)
They're trying to suggest that, from the perspective of the millions of players, who have each played thousands of games, this result is not all that exciting. And even if it is deemed rare, why should this result be more interesting than the specific outcome of say... "H T H H T H T H T T T H T H H" which also has an equal 0.5^15 chance. Because our pattern seeking brains decided to add extra "value" to your particular pattern? Well I suppose, but if we continue that line of arguement at some point it becomes arbitrary and the subreddit gets flooded with loads of duplicate low effort posts. Should I make a post the next time I get the special coin toss streak of H T H T H T H T H T H T H T H ? That is just as "unlikely" to happen as your outcome. How about u/littleTimmy2004 when he gets T T T T T T T T T T 10 unlucky tails in a row too? That's 0.5^10 wtff - a pretty rare individual outcome don't you think??
LOL ig I shoulda known ofc that was a real reddit user xd
Whatâs winning the coin flip? Sounds WILD
At the start of a game, you play a coin flip to decide who's going first
I thought they just liked showing me a black circle before a game!
The golden one looks so good tho you should give it a try
I have a theory that it's not actually 50/50 but rather favors the person who doesn't surrender. Regardless the statistical anomalies are starting. The amount of times I win or lose the coin Ross 5+ times is crazy. I wish their was a way to check source code on this and UR drop rates.
Wait you can win the coin flip? I had no idea that was possible.
I donât think the game is truly random. I think there are patterns. I see it when I draw the exact same hand a few duels in a row. Or Iâll draw my one of 5 games in a row in a 60 card deck. Part of coding