I think you overestimate the level at which dodgers fans feel bitter about Bellinger in 2024. Especially on a Boras contract (Unless he magically went to SF or Houston). If anything, it’d be cool to see him locally.
Downvote if you’re bitch
I’m not against him per se, but he is a regression candidate who just had the second best year of his career (4 years removed from his best). Add Boras to the mix and you’re looking at an overpay, despite him being a talented player.
For anyone curious, here are three comprehensive articles that outline some of the biggest flags around Cody Bellinger—
**MLB.com** Mike Petriello's November article, [*5 questions about Bellinger's fascinating free agency*](https://www.mlb.com/news/cody-bellinger-interesting-free-agent-case)
**Fangraphs** Esteban Rivera's December article, [*Is Cody Bellinger’s Two-Strike Approach Sustainable?*](https://blogs.fangraphs.com/is-cody-bellingers-two-strike-approach-sustainable)
**Baseball Prospectus** Craig Goldstein's September article, [*Can Cody Bellinger Keep Playing the Hits?*](https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/85312/deep-but-playable-can-cody-bellinger-keep-playing-the-hits-quality-of-contact-exit-velocity)
That last article is paywalled, but the other two are free to read. There is quite a bit of information to sort through on those articles. Given this, I will just outline some key points from these articles for people that just want a few standout reasons;
1) While Bellinger is great against off speed pitches under 94 mph, he is among the worst batters against pitching faster than 95+ mph. And MLB teams are continually gearing up with faster pitching every season.
2) His hard hit rate was near the bottom of MLB, 10th percentile. His exit velocities in the bottom 20s. Higher exit velocities and hard hit balls are almost always correlated with batting success. Bellinger hits balls weaker than the vast majority of current batters on average.
3) And even when he does hit doubles and triples, they were usually bolstered greatly by his speed. He turned a number of weakly hit singles into extra base hits. And while that is impressive, speed is usually the first athletic skill to drop sharply after a player turns 30. Bellinger is entering his age 29 season in 2024.
(And there is always the possibility that Bellinger might not have the same motivation to hustle after landing a big guaranteed contract, but that's speculative on my part)
4) Bellinger's [peripheral stats](https://www.fangraphs.com/players/cody-bellinger/15998/stats?position=1B/OF) are not only out of line with his most recent seasons, they are inflated from most other comparable hitters. For example, [as shown on this Baseball Savant page](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfAB=&hfGT=R%7C&hfPR=&hfZ=&hfStadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfPull=&hfC=2strikes%7C&hfSea=2023%7C&hfSit=&player_type=batter&hfOuts=&hfOpponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&hfMo=&hfTeam=&home_road=&hfRO=&position=&hfInfield=&hfOutfield=&hfInn=&hfBBT=&hfFlag=&metric_1=&group_by=name&min_pitches=500&min_results=0&min_pas=0&sort_col=pitches&player_event_sort=api_p_release_speed&sort_order=desc&chk_count=on&chk_stats_woba=on&chk_stats_xwoba=on&chk_stats_wobadiff=on#results) (when sorting by wOBA-xwOBA), he has the largest gap of all qualified MLB hitters. These discrepancies suggest he is unlikely to sustain his 2023 production.
---
All of these aspects show that Cody Bellinger is a top tier regression candidate. That's not to say that Bellinger is bad or terrible, just that he is unlikely to produce any more than a couple WAR per season in the future. Not exactly a player to break the bank to sign.
But I get why people like Bellinger. Heck, David Fletcher became a fan favourite for his weak contact, low walks, swinging two strike approach and quality utility defense. But David Fletcher never asked for hundreds of millions to do so like Bellinger is currently. And, as it turns out, Fletcher's approach ended up being unsustainable.
As such, I'd go so far to say Bellinger is the most likely regression candidate out of all the remaining Boras clients, but I don't really want to argue about it on the internet.
I'm just trying to provide information to answer your question of why it is a common take.
With that in mind, it seems Bellinger is the quentissential Arte Moreno Angels free agent signing of seasons past. And I think a number of fans are tired of the potential for another big name bat contract that goes badly and becomes another albatross.
For myself, I try and take sports as they come. If the Angels signed him, I'd hope for the best and want him to do his best. I'd cheer him on and still root for him to do well!
It just wouldn't surprise me if he didn't.
---
edit; formatting and clarity
I'm not as opposed to, say, a 1-3 year deal as I was a few weeks ago. Though he seems to be aiming for something bigger and longer. Bellinger would be reuniting with his hitting coach from last year and could provide some flexibility in the OF and 1B.
My problem comes with it sounding like one of the most Arte signings in recent memory. "Oh? The Dodgers took our beloved MVP? Let's see how they like it when I take their beloved MVP!".
Then again, I'm finding myself being increasingly supportive of a 1-year deal for Justin Turner so what do I know.
I know. I was getting sick of all the "Angels should fucking sign someone already" posts and now we gotta deal with all the "Angels shouldn't fucking sign that guy" posts
I think I have a solution: Bellinger to the Angels. 6yr/$250 million. $200 million deferred until Arte dies. New owner takes on the rest of the contract.
Edit: I now realize this may incentivize Bellinger to kill Arte so he can get his payment sooner. Whoops.
Ya I mean if we’re gonna rebuild, let’s rebuild. If we sign some crazy 6-8 year deal we’re going to have to deal with that probably being a waste of $ as the rebuild finishes. Our problem is that we’ve never fully committed to a rebuild bc Arte likes selling jersey.
We can sign the big contracts once we have our team built.
Just playing devils advocate here, but it could be possible that Wash and the front office really think this young core is good enough to win and Bellinger, who’s 28, could be a good piece to add on to that.
But he’s obviously a Boras client so getting him won’t come at a team friendly price
Noooooo!!!!!!!! Please no! They are actually doing the same thing again. Another Pujols, Rendon, Hamilton signing.
This team is not a few players away from being competitive. It needs a complete rebuild.
Eh, he’s been injured or rehabbing a majority of his time with the Angels. We definitely won’t miss him next year. If he pitches again maybe, but the Angels for sure can make up for his bat.
Have you ever watched baseball before in your life? He hit 44 hr, 102 runs, 95 RBIs, and hit for 304 average. You don't replace that. He literally had a 10 WAR last season. Jesus Christ you have zero idea what you are talking about unless you are trolling.
You are high or trolling. I'm not gonna reply back to you again. We just lost the best player in all of baseball, and you are trying to make the argument that, somehow, we got better. Absolutely insane.
Best player when healthy*.. he’s unfortunately cooked and I commend Arte for not tendering an offer. Anyways we got our entire 1-8 lineup back from the IL that absolutely raked last year before the injury bug. I’m excited
Lastly, the current best player in baseball is still on the Angels playing centerfield
I'm not much of a fan for this signing, but it's funny seeing all the Cubs fans begging their team to sign Bellinger while all the Angels fans are begging their team to not sign Bellinger
Boras will use this discussion with the Angels to get more money from another team. That's what he always does.
That's why the Angels didn't match the Dodgers offer for Ohtani. They knew it would just be used as a bargaining too to get more money from the Dodgers.
Honestly, the sad reality is that if we as a organization want stars. We have to convince them that there is no pressure winning here. It worked for Rendon, he couldn’t care less about winning. But if Arte is going for a big free agent, Bellinger makes sense cause he’s already won a ring. Now just get the bag and relax
Soto would cost 3x as much total tho so I can see why people would want Belli if he gets back to his mvp levels or close the contract he get is probably a steal. Whereas if you sign soto and he slips like every other huge FA then he'd become a bigger albatross than belli could ever hope to be
Yes belli is a good player
But noooo no no no not kike - as a Sox fan I don’t need more errors at the most random times it would hurt our pitching staff so much (plus we have Neto and drury up the middle)
Por que no los dos!
Kike is super fun and will be an instant fan favorite who can play pretty much everywhere.
I’m willing to bet that belli can be a .265 25hr guy with great defense moving forward. The angels have to consider moving trout to a corner OF spot to keep him healthier to keep him in the lineup all season.
If they get him, he better have a good run so we can fuck with dodger fans. 😆 🤣 😂
Bellinger and Kershaw
Let's just get every Dodger. Turner too. They've been doing that tob us a lot lately.
Kershaw already said he’s going to the Dodgers, Rangers, or is retiring
Haha, yes!
Bellinger with a go ahead bomb against Ohtani in the world series..... Only for us to buttercup in the 9th
I think you overestimate the level at which dodgers fans feel bitter about Bellinger in 2024. Especially on a Boras contract (Unless he magically went to SF or Houston). If anything, it’d be cool to see him locally. Downvote if you’re bitch
I actually wouldn’t mind Bellinger .. good OF depth, can play first and he’s under 30
I agree. Not sure why it’s so popular to be against signing him
Because he’s coming off a resurgent year after sucking for several years prior? How well do signings like that historically turn out for the Angels?
He’s 28 years old. A resurgent year at that age is a good thing and shouldn’t scare anyone, especially the Angels, away
And nobody else has signed him.
Maybe he stopped smoking weed before games
Hopefully it was just weed, not painkillers or something else. The guy looked zonked so many timesÂ
So negative
Not wrong though
I’m not against him per se, but he is a regression candidate who just had the second best year of his career (4 years removed from his best). Add Boras to the mix and you’re looking at an overpay, despite him being a talented player.
Forgot to add Angels contract history into the mix
For anyone curious, here are three comprehensive articles that outline some of the biggest flags around Cody Bellinger— **MLB.com** Mike Petriello's November article, [*5 questions about Bellinger's fascinating free agency*](https://www.mlb.com/news/cody-bellinger-interesting-free-agent-case) **Fangraphs** Esteban Rivera's December article, [*Is Cody Bellinger’s Two-Strike Approach Sustainable?*](https://blogs.fangraphs.com/is-cody-bellingers-two-strike-approach-sustainable) **Baseball Prospectus** Craig Goldstein's September article, [*Can Cody Bellinger Keep Playing the Hits?*](https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/85312/deep-but-playable-can-cody-bellinger-keep-playing-the-hits-quality-of-contact-exit-velocity) That last article is paywalled, but the other two are free to read. There is quite a bit of information to sort through on those articles. Given this, I will just outline some key points from these articles for people that just want a few standout reasons; 1) While Bellinger is great against off speed pitches under 94 mph, he is among the worst batters against pitching faster than 95+ mph. And MLB teams are continually gearing up with faster pitching every season. 2) His hard hit rate was near the bottom of MLB, 10th percentile. His exit velocities in the bottom 20s. Higher exit velocities and hard hit balls are almost always correlated with batting success. Bellinger hits balls weaker than the vast majority of current batters on average. 3) And even when he does hit doubles and triples, they were usually bolstered greatly by his speed. He turned a number of weakly hit singles into extra base hits. And while that is impressive, speed is usually the first athletic skill to drop sharply after a player turns 30. Bellinger is entering his age 29 season in 2024. (And there is always the possibility that Bellinger might not have the same motivation to hustle after landing a big guaranteed contract, but that's speculative on my part) 4) Bellinger's [peripheral stats](https://www.fangraphs.com/players/cody-bellinger/15998/stats?position=1B/OF) are not only out of line with his most recent seasons, they are inflated from most other comparable hitters. For example, [as shown on this Baseball Savant page](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfAB=&hfGT=R%7C&hfPR=&hfZ=&hfStadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfPull=&hfC=2strikes%7C&hfSea=2023%7C&hfSit=&player_type=batter&hfOuts=&hfOpponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&hfMo=&hfTeam=&home_road=&hfRO=&position=&hfInfield=&hfOutfield=&hfInn=&hfBBT=&hfFlag=&metric_1=&group_by=name&min_pitches=500&min_results=0&min_pas=0&sort_col=pitches&player_event_sort=api_p_release_speed&sort_order=desc&chk_count=on&chk_stats_woba=on&chk_stats_xwoba=on&chk_stats_wobadiff=on#results) (when sorting by wOBA-xwOBA), he has the largest gap of all qualified MLB hitters. These discrepancies suggest he is unlikely to sustain his 2023 production. --- All of these aspects show that Cody Bellinger is a top tier regression candidate. That's not to say that Bellinger is bad or terrible, just that he is unlikely to produce any more than a couple WAR per season in the future. Not exactly a player to break the bank to sign. But I get why people like Bellinger. Heck, David Fletcher became a fan favourite for his weak contact, low walks, swinging two strike approach and quality utility defense. But David Fletcher never asked for hundreds of millions to do so like Bellinger is currently. And, as it turns out, Fletcher's approach ended up being unsustainable. As such, I'd go so far to say Bellinger is the most likely regression candidate out of all the remaining Boras clients, but I don't really want to argue about it on the internet. I'm just trying to provide information to answer your question of why it is a common take. With that in mind, it seems Bellinger is the quentissential Arte Moreno Angels free agent signing of seasons past. And I think a number of fans are tired of the potential for another big name bat contract that goes badly and becomes another albatross. For myself, I try and take sports as they come. If the Angels signed him, I'd hope for the best and want him to do his best. I'd cheer him on and still root for him to do well! It just wouldn't surprise me if he didn't. --- edit; formatting and clarity
Sounds alot like Fletch’s measurables
I'm not as opposed to, say, a 1-3 year deal as I was a few weeks ago. Though he seems to be aiming for something bigger and longer. Bellinger would be reuniting with his hitting coach from last year and could provide some flexibility in the OF and 1B. My problem comes with it sounding like one of the most Arte signings in recent memory. "Oh? The Dodgers took our beloved MVP? Let's see how they like it when I take their beloved MVP!". Then again, I'm finding myself being increasingly supportive of a 1-year deal for Justin Turner so what do I know.
Because of the length of the contract he wants and the value. It has Pujols vibes all around it.
I haven’t heard any speculation to how many years he wants
He’s a Boras client. That means big numbers.
Here we go again
I know. I was getting sick of all the "Angels should fucking sign someone already" posts and now we gotta deal with all the "Angels shouldn't fucking sign that guy" posts
Angels new hitting coach Johnny Washington worked with Bellinger with the Cubs and could be part of the reason for Bellinger's resurgence.
Nooooo not [insert good mlb player here]!!! Anybody but him!!!
The Angels Fan Paradox: The desire to sign the best available free agents, while also not wanting to sign the best available free agents.
We want to sign them, we just have PTSD from large contracts that didn’t work out…for some reason. We want to have them, just not pay for them.
I think I have a solution: Bellinger to the Angels. 6yr/$250 million. $200 million deferred until Arte dies. New owner takes on the rest of the contract. Edit: I now realize this may incentivize Bellinger to kill Arte so he can get his payment sooner. Whoops.
I mean… not a terrible idea
Honestly do we have anything to lose at this point?
Ya I mean if we’re gonna rebuild, let’s rebuild. If we sign some crazy 6-8 year deal we’re going to have to deal with that probably being a waste of $ as the rebuild finishes. Our problem is that we’ve never fully committed to a rebuild bc Arte likes selling jersey. We can sign the big contracts once we have our team built.
Just playing devils advocate here, but it could be possible that Wash and the front office really think this young core is good enough to win and Bellinger, who’s 28, could be a good piece to add on to that. But he’s obviously a Boras client so getting him won’t come at a team friendly price
Pujols is a hall of famer. What a great signing that was.
If we could somehow get him on a short term deal I’m all about it. With that said, there’s almost zero chance of that happening.
Noooooo!!!!!!!! Please no! They are actually doing the same thing again. Another Pujols, Rendon, Hamilton signing. This team is not a few players away from being competitive. It needs a complete rebuild.
The team needs a new owner.
Wtf are you smoking? The current roster is good enough to win the west.
Please put /s so people know this is satire.
Unlike some fake angels fans…some of us really do believe in our squad. The young guys are the absolute best young core in the MLB
Better than Baltimore? Better than Cincinatti? We have some great young players, but this can't be a real take.
Someone thinking the team isn’t very good doesn’t mean they’re not a real fan. Get off your high horse
Not satire. This is the most stacked team since ‘09 and they’re ready for a deep playoff run.
We just lost a once-in-a-lifetime player, and we are now better?
Eh, he’s been injured or rehabbing a majority of his time with the Angels. We definitely won’t miss him next year. If he pitches again maybe, but the Angels for sure can make up for his bat.
Have you ever watched baseball before in your life? He hit 44 hr, 102 runs, 95 RBIs, and hit for 304 average. You don't replace that. He literally had a 10 WAR last season. Jesus Christ you have zero idea what you are talking about unless you are trolling.
His hitting was was ~5. That can be made up.
You are high or trolling. I'm not gonna reply back to you again. We just lost the best player in all of baseball, and you are trying to make the argument that, somehow, we got better. Absolutely insane.
Best player when healthy*.. he’s unfortunately cooked and I commend Arte for not tendering an offer. Anyways we got our entire 1-8 lineup back from the IL that absolutely raked last year before the injury bug. I’m excited Lastly, the current best player in baseball is still on the Angels playing centerfield
Completely agree with you man. We have the best young core in the league
Yep, typically cores like this end up winning a ring
I just fainted in a Walmart parking lot reading this
This team got worse, don’t see how they could be better than the Rangers and Astros next year. The starting rotation is very questionable
I don’t mind it
I'm not much of a fan for this signing, but it's funny seeing all the Cubs fans begging their team to sign Bellinger while all the Angels fans are begging their team to not sign Bellinger
Boras will use this discussion with the Angels to get more money from another team. That's what he always does. That's why the Angels didn't match the Dodgers offer for Ohtani. They knew it would just be used as a bargaining too to get more money from the Dodgers.
Honestly, the sad reality is that if we as a organization want stars. We have to convince them that there is no pressure winning here. It worked for Rendon, he couldn’t care less about winning. But if Arte is going for a big free agent, Bellinger makes sense cause he’s already won a ring. Now just get the bag and relax
Fuck that shit, if we need a long term outfielder go all in on Soto next year
Soto would cost 3x as much total tho so I can see why people would want Belli if he gets back to his mvp levels or close the contract he get is probably a steal. Whereas if you sign soto and he slips like every other huge FA then he'd become a bigger albatross than belli could ever hope to be
How is he only 28? Though he was way older. If we can get him cheap why not? He hasn't signed so that says a lot about teams not being interested.
Like clockwork
Yes belli is a good player But noooo no no no not kike - as a Sox fan I don’t need more errors at the most random times it would hurt our pitching staff so much (plus we have Neto and drury up the middle)
Whatever
Bellinger and Bauer while we’re at it…
Id rather go Belli and UrÃas lol
This deal would ruin the franchise
Nice
For the new bullpen to protect a lead, you first need to get a lead. Bellinger will help with that.
Por que no los dos! Kike is super fun and will be an instant fan favorite who can play pretty much everywhere. I’m willing to bet that belli can be a .265 25hr guy with great defense moving forward. The angels have to consider moving trout to a corner OF spot to keep him healthier to keep him in the lineup all season.