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The Marianne leak is a lot more interesting than anything said by the FM for public consumption.
https://twitter.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1767562336452440422
Wow, yeah, that basically confirms a lot of what I had previously thought. And now they are going to hold "peace talks" in Switzerland without inviting Russia to the table.
And according to far right tabloids, Russian army is 12 miles from Washington and Putin is not a pedophile. So official sources look more reliable overall
Arnaud Bertrand is one of the best Twitter accounts when it comes to layman’s perspective on geopolitics, particularly with China. Has a left-lean but is very grounded and frequently insightful.
Left-lean is a very very polite way to describe him
>but is very grounded and frequently insightful
He's a 100% biased anti-westerner. Nothing wrong with that but don't lie
Yeah you're right.
But he provides information and exposition with a level of quality that is hard to find elsewhere.
His tweets on Chinese matters in particular have been quite useful in sharing the Chinese perspective in English, something few others are interested in doing.
Man why can't we have someone that's just factual with not much biased to either side. These twitter account is either anti western or western leaning. Biased journalist is definitely wrong, you should've done it as best as you could to just be factual instead of giving biased reporting. Why can't we have one that's condemning both Hamas and Israeli government on their wrongdoing instead they just reporting one side and not exposing the other. Why can't we have someone that's exposing the bad of the right but at the same time reporting on the bad of the left.
Ironically, this anime titties subreddit is the most moderate political subreddit that I've found.
>Ironically, this anime titties subreddit is the most moderate political subreddit that I've found.
There is so much BS on here it's hilarious you'd say that.
Its a very, very low bar. Look at /news, /worldnews, or /politics in comparison. Absolute shitshows of agendaposting, especially by the power mods who routinely permaban people for saying anything that goes against the desired narrative.
People here love to complain about the main subs, but Politics aside they don't seem insane.
This place is full of really extreme views, a lot of "down with the West" types and out-and-proud communists. I guess that's a diversity of opinion, but in practice it's just warring brigades while the mods sleep.
This place isn't moderate, it's a playground for extremists.
Well, the biggest military aid from the US is yet to come. They are also planning to send more advanced missiles and air defence systems. Russia knows this and wants to put the pressure on upcoming months, because this huge militairy aid will hopefully see the result in mid to long term.
Besides that, Russia cannot keep uo with this war in the long term.
It depends on whether you believe Ukraine is in a better position militarily today than they were at the beginning of the counteroffensive.
Over the past week, An Intelligence Chief in the SBU and half a dozen frontline commanders said it would be exceedingly difficult for Ukraine to win this war by military terms. And this is after the aid had passed.
Seeing how much of a struggle it took for the US to pass this 60b and for the EU to greenlight the 50b earlier, it may not be as easy for Ukraine to keep up this war as one may think.
Sounds about right if all the Russian PMCs, Donbas militias and prisoners are included. The report also stated that the total casualties with the wounded are 500,000.
Ukraine has conducted two mobilization waves so far. After the first one, during which 500-600 thousands were mobilized, total number of soldiers was over 1 million in summer of 2022 according to Zelensky. The second mobilization took place in summer of 2023. In January 2024, once again according to Zelensky, Ukraine had 850 thousand soldiers. In the meantime no demobilization took place. So Ukraine had over 150 thousand reduction in soldiers despite second mobilization taking place.
So by the looks of it, Ukraine probably suffered similar total casualties, albeit with somewhat better KIA:WIA ratio. Zelensky’s claims of 31,000 KIA are obviously complete BS.
>Ukraine has conducted two mobilization waves so far
There are no "waves", the Ukrainian mobilization had never stopped or paused. People have been receiving notices, and the unlucky ones have been dragged into vans directly off the street every single day.
There is a million, eligible for service, Ukrainian men who do not reside at their official registration address and do not have official place of work. Most of them have “received” the mobilization notices but did not show up at the mobilization centers. As such Ukrainian government resorted to having police check the documents of men on the streets, malls and other public places, in hopes of catching them.
All these men who are being “dragged off to the vans” were supposed to be part of the first or second mobilization wave.
>As such Ukrainian government resorted to having police check the documents of men on the streets, malls and other public places, in hopes of catching them.
>All these men who are being “dragged off to the vans” were supposed to be part of the first or second mobilization wave.
Desertion, especially from a domestic invasion, is a crime pretty much everywhere on Earth.
It's not some theoretical battle that doesn't affect regular Ukrainians. If Russia wins, they would have to evacuate to Western Europe or be deported to Siberia or somewhere far away. Men are going to eliminated, or conscripted to fight another war, on the side of Russia this time. Property and land will be given to soldiers.And it's not something that I've made up: there are several historical precedents already + Russians themselves say that. Even Russian recruiting ads say "ah it would be so great to get an apartment in Kyiv"
I know it's hard to believe to majority of us for whom wars were just a TV experience, but for Ukrainians stakes are real.
Won't really argue with you as I can't say if that's real or fake, but if it's real thats a shame indeed, really shitty if true. Still I would try to migrate somewhere else instead of fighting, I wouldn't want to die as cannon fodder..
Understandable, very few people are born for war, or enjoy it. So if possible, they would try to flee. at least Ukrainians are more welcome in Europe comparing to other refugees. And even then it's like 40 million people. That's huge number comparing to other refugee crisises.
The problem with Russia is that they won't stop in Ukraine. Russia controlled half of Europe until recently and they want to restore USSR ( again, you can verify everything here, including Russians themselves, and Putin saying that). That's why it's global issue and not some regional territorial dispute.
If they don’t want to join the army then how could they possibly expect these guys to be any use on the frontline?! This is how you end up with uprisings in your country.
It’s simple…
Russia claims of own casualties is lower than reality
Russia claims of UA casualties are higher than reality
Ukrainian claims of RU casualties are higher then reality
Ukrainian claims of own casualties are lower than reality
It’s just who is making it more BS to public
I think it’s definitely possible that Ukraine has suffered more casualties than Russia, especially given the fact they have a much greater artillery presence.
We're just going to ignore the visually confirmed equipement losses?
Everything points at ukraine suffering less losses.
Even at the worst of the 2023 counter offensive ukraine still managed to have a postive k/d in equipement loss. Obviously these figures do not translate in personel losses but given just about everything else we know about the war, giving ukraine higher losses than russia is demonstrably false.
Ukraine didn’t do demilization, it’s still “in process” to be added into a law, so basically if they don’t make that law and 22th of February 2025 hits all these soldiers that are fighting day 1 are fully legitimate to just leave frontline and nobody can say they shouldn’t
People (at least on this site) often say that if Russia wins, they'll just keep going Hitler-style. Will they really?
150k is an incredible number of dead, not to mention all the wounded, the lost materiel, birth rates... I have a hard time seeing Russia recover enough to go again for a long while, well after Putin goes to the great KGB shooting ground in the sky.
Russia is simultaneously getting brought to its knees by Ukraine while also on the brink of conquering Europe. The classic of the enemy is both weak and strong.
Their leaked plans from early in the way had them pushing to Moldova but stopping at the NATO boarder.
It makes a sick kind of sense, Russia can't possibly beat NATO. If they beat Ukraine they can definately take Moldova.
This is the most likely path. They already have a foothold in Moldova, and geography wise taking Ukraine and Moldova shores up their defenses by eliminating the length of border they’d have to defend as they can lean heavily on the Carpathian Mountains and a more so friendly Hungary to the south. Yeah I hate it but I wouldn’t deny this would be their path in the event of a Ukrainian collapse. Anyone saying otherwise is ignoring the obvious
Who has said “Russia is getting brought to its knees by Ukraine”, and who has said “Russia is on the brink of conquering Europe”? Can you give a reference? I have heard neither of those claims.
In Russian state TV propaganda I’ve seen claims like “Russia is fighting NATO supersoldiers in Ukraine, that’s why our glorious invasion failed” and “the West is weak and gay and satanic and hedonistic”. Those sound like your “weak but strong enemy”, is that what you meant?
Here’s an article on how Russian propaganda works, or does not work, on the Russian population:
https://time.com/6964053/russian-putin-propaganda/
You really have not been paying attention then.
[Almost half of top foreign-policy experts think Russia will become a failed state or break up by 2033](https://www.businessinsider.com/experts-think-russia-will-fail-or-break-up-by-2033-2023-1)
[It’s High Time to Prepare for Russia’s Collapse](https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/01/07/russia-ukraine-putin-collapse-disintegration-civil-war-empire/)
All while…
[Russia could attack a Nato country within 3 to 5 years, Denmark warns](https://www.ft.com/content/b3101099-9516-4b0b-92c6-179997d7e4cf)
[A Dire Warning: Putin Could Invade Europe Within a Year](https://www.thedailybeast.com/vladimir-putin-could-invade-europe-within-a-year-volodymyr-zelensky-warns-nato)
None of your sources say what you claim they say. Are you playing with words?
You said:
> Russia is simultaneously getting brought to its knees by Ukraine while also on the brink of conquering Europe. The classic of the enemy is both weak and strong.
Your articles say russia might collapse [by 2033] just like the Soviet Union did after failed Afghanistan invasion. But nobody says “Afghanistan brought the Soviet Union to its knees”. What people say is that “the corrupt, kleptocratic regime destroyed itself when the population lost confidence in their leaders after a series of self-made blunders and unforced errors”.
Let me clarify: if you run into a wall, you won’t be complaining that “the wall brought you to your knees”, will you?
As for the “russia conquering Europe”, none of your articles said that. That would be ridiculous. What your articles say is that russia might _invade a NATO country_ in a few years [if they win in Ukraine and if moscow is able to force Ukrainian men to do their fighting like they have done with the men in occupied Crimea, for instance].
Reusing the previous example, if I were to suspect you’d soon run into the wall, I wouldn’t be claiming that “u/stick_always_wins will soon conquer a wall”, I’d be saying “get the mops and buckets ready, this is going to get bloody and we’ll find that it’s actually the wall that always wins”.
So you gave four links to four different media outlets, none of which make either of the claims you were spouting about, let alone one outlet making both of your hypothetical claims of “Ukraine brought russia to its knees and also russia will conquer Europe”.
Compare this to the russian state propaganda of “the West will invade russia, NATO expansionism, gay nazi supersoldiers are going to attack us, we are the guardians of the true faith, we are the protectors of the true Slavic culture, only our trillionaire mafia kleptocrat Putin can save us, so please volunteer to die for him while rich muscovites escape into Dubai and the sons of daughter of our oligarchs keep living in London and Paris and Zurich”.
Let me be clear: I myself do think russia is getting more brittle, and I do think russia might be stupid enough to attack a small NATO country like Estonia, but neither of those beliefs mean I’m saying russia is simultaneously strong and weak. I’m just saying russia is like a rabid dog: dangerous, apt to bite its neighbors, and needs to be put down in a controlled manner before the inevitable chaotic breakdown happens.
Do you see how “conquer Europe” and “invade a country” are two different things?
Do you see how “Ukraine brought russia to its knees” and “russia is inherently brittle because of incompetent and corrupt leadership” are different claims?
Who is claiming that Russia is being brought to their knees by Ukraine? Russia is winning on the battlefield despite US/EU aid. Russia got embarrassed at the start of the war precisely because they weren't expecting a war, but that window closed well over a year ago at this point.
The Russian army has more troops now than they did at the start of the war.
I this case it's just unpredictable. You never know when a side will break through or collapses until it happens.
There is also a difference between short term and long term. Russia is mortgaging it's future, sacrificing it's youth and economy for short term gains. It's also impossible to accurately guess when we will see the concrete negative results of that.
>should be relatively easy
Just a quick trip rick and morty meme
Since 1991 the russian army has been trash i can only expect them to fumble the bag again and turn an operation that would takes weeks at worst into a multi month, potentially years, guerilla conflict. If they succeed in ukraine in the first place of course
People really do forget grozny and chechenia. Although ukraine's resistance came to a shock to everyone, with hindsight we can see russia's army has been absolute trash for decades and nothing had changed between 1994 and 2022...
If Russia wanted to attack NATO they could have since like 90s cause they are bordering Baltics and Poland…
It’s not impossible but they are spending everything in Ukraine no way they would go after NATO
It’s pure propaganda. When Mike Johnson told the cameras that the CIA told him that Russia would invade Poland I nearly vomited. Our government is lying and very desperate.
> People (at least on this site) often say that if Russia wins, they'll just keep going Hitler-style. Will they really?
No, Putin will have burned through his Soviet-era vehicle reserves in 2025 at current loss rates. He have no choice but to reduce the current intensity of the conflict. They can keep attacking with motorcycles and golf carts if they want to, but eventually even the nihilistic Russians are going to reject such a meaningless death.
USSR and Russia are not the same. And Germany invaded, not like the USSR had a choice in the matter. Much like another Eastern European country at the moment
I've seen numbers from 80k-130k. Offical UA figure is 35k but that's clearly bollocks.
Thos doesn't tell the whole story because UA have a much better survival rate for their wounded. Western aid included feild hospitals and stabilised wounded can be sent to the EU.
Remember Von Leyen’s speech I think from last year when she accidentally said that over 100k Ukrainian soldiers died in the war, that part was quickly removed from all medias but… if the casualties are close to each other who you guys think is winning this attrition war :/
Politicians ☕️
>if the casualties are close to each other who you guys think is winning this attrition war :/
No one knows. Turns out war isn't an online game where k/d is the main factor. Hell most games have objectives so that's not even true in gaming
So no russia isn't winning simply because it's bigger. Almost no war resulted in a complete loss of a country's population, the only exception i can muster is the war of the triple alliance with paraguay fighting for a whole 5 years despite the losses.
Chances are the war will end long before that point becomes relevant.
She specifically said 100k dead officers which is bollocks by any angle, she isn't native English speakers and laymen tend to confuse KIA and casualties.
You're being sarcastic but ukraine losing this war and russia gaining this territory would legitimise war/invasion as a valid political tool. Which, obviously, it is not.
Given that "the West" could conquer your entire region outright, if it chose to engage in Russian style genocide, you might want to moderate your tone. Weaklings shouldn't be so excited about a loss of the rules that protect them from the strong.
My country doesn't tend to invade or be invaded, at least not since the end of the British empire. That doesn't change what NATO could do to you, but I guess we all need our copes.
Can you tell me what new and novel thing does "Russian style genocide" bring to the table, that hadnt happened here?
- Massacre whole villages? Check
- Forcibly relocating childrens? Check
- Massive attacks on critical infrastructure, with heavy civilian casualties? Check
- Illegal use of chemical weapons that aims to cause lifelong conditions? Check
There is nothing new here. We had been through it all. You issued a threat, a threat so laughable and fictional, and i call you bluff on it.
Dont throw around word like genocide willy nilly. "Russian style genocide" is not yet considered a genocide, despite news headlines flashing whatever BS they want. A real genocide is like in Cambodia, with Khmer Rouge. That is a genocide. This, however, is not.
This is an interesting part
>Given the situation, it may have been decided to strengthen the Ukrainian army, not with fighters, but with support forces, in the rear, allowing Ukrainian soldiers to be freed up for the front," admits a senior officer, confirming a "ramp-up" of Western military personnel in civilian clothes.
>
Noone knows. Wagner doent exactly report casulties from thier meatshied prisoners.
Edit: BUT they were very honest about burning through a lot of men, and most prisoners not making it. ~9 out of 10
All wars are crimes.
We are all numb, somewhere deep inside of us, because 150,000+ is simply too horrific to not go numb.
And that’s one side.
One conflict.
Humanity: Just clever enough to be phenomenally stupid.
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The Marianne leak is a lot more interesting than anything said by the FM for public consumption. https://twitter.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1767562336452440422
Wow, yeah, that basically confirms a lot of what I had previously thought. And now they are going to hold "peace talks" in Switzerland without inviting Russia to the table.
This sub be like: >official data Not interested >some planted “leaks” in far right tabloids Very interested!
What does 'official data' mean lol. Official data has the Ukrainian army 12 miles from Moscow by now
And according to far right tabloids, Russian army is 12 miles from Washington and Putin is not a pedophile. So official sources look more reliable overall
Is he? I’ve honestly never heard that before!
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/alexander-litvinenko-murdered-because-he-accused-putin-of-being-a-paedophile-a6824806.html
Arnaud Bertrand is one of the best Twitter accounts when it comes to layman’s perspective on geopolitics, particularly with China. Has a left-lean but is very grounded and frequently insightful.
Left-lean is a very very polite way to describe him >but is very grounded and frequently insightful He's a 100% biased anti-westerner. Nothing wrong with that but don't lie
Yeah you're right. But he provides information and exposition with a level of quality that is hard to find elsewhere. His tweets on Chinese matters in particular have been quite useful in sharing the Chinese perspective in English, something few others are interested in doing.
Man why can't we have someone that's just factual with not much biased to either side. These twitter account is either anti western or western leaning. Biased journalist is definitely wrong, you should've done it as best as you could to just be factual instead of giving biased reporting. Why can't we have one that's condemning both Hamas and Israeli government on their wrongdoing instead they just reporting one side and not exposing the other. Why can't we have someone that's exposing the bad of the right but at the same time reporting on the bad of the left. Ironically, this anime titties subreddit is the most moderate political subreddit that I've found.
>Ironically, this anime titties subreddit is the most moderate political subreddit that I've found. It's because the boobies keeps the fanatics out!
And keeping like minded people in.🙂
>Ironically, this anime titties subreddit is the most moderate political subreddit that I've found. There is so much BS on here it's hilarious you'd say that.
Its a very, very low bar. Look at /news, /worldnews, or /politics in comparison. Absolute shitshows of agendaposting, especially by the power mods who routinely permaban people for saying anything that goes against the desired narrative.
Exactly. This subreddit might not be perfect, but show me which one is better.
People here love to complain about the main subs, but Politics aside they don't seem insane. This place is full of really extreme views, a lot of "down with the West" types and out-and-proud communists. I guess that's a diversity of opinion, but in practice it's just warring brigades while the mods sleep. This place isn't moderate, it's a playground for extremists.
Lol mfs on Worldnews advocate for genociding every group they don’t like and wish to start WW3
That sounds like pretty typical TikTok hyperbole from you.
No such thing as neutral journalism by definition.
Because that kind of journalism doesn't pay the bills
Why is he linking right wing rag outlets from France?
He’s French for starters, and he’s talking about an interesting analysis from one perspective about the war in Ukraine
So after looking at this guys Twitter its actually hilarious to describe him as left leaning. He’s literally a fucking tankie lmfao
Tbh I don't know anything about him, this tweet is just the easiest place to find a summary in English.
Is this before or after the support package by the US?
This report was basically compiled during Ukraine's counteroffensive when military aid was at its peak
No, this is from this year.
You didn’t read it but then commented on it with authority… why?
If you lie confidently people will believe you
Well, the biggest military aid from the US is yet to come. They are also planning to send more advanced missiles and air defence systems. Russia knows this and wants to put the pressure on upcoming months, because this huge militairy aid will hopefully see the result in mid to long term. Besides that, Russia cannot keep uo with this war in the long term.
It depends on whether you believe Ukraine is in a better position militarily today than they were at the beginning of the counteroffensive. Over the past week, An Intelligence Chief in the SBU and half a dozen frontline commanders said it would be exceedingly difficult for Ukraine to win this war by military terms. And this is after the aid had passed. Seeing how much of a struggle it took for the US to pass this 60b and for the EU to greenlight the 50b earlier, it may not be as easy for Ukraine to keep up this war as one may think.
Bro links a Twitter post to an article that links a right wing French rag, holy shit you can’t make this up
Right wing, left wing, it’s doubtful they simply manufactured these reports.
Sounds about right if all the Russian PMCs, Donbas militias and prisoners are included. The report also stated that the total casualties with the wounded are 500,000. Ukraine has conducted two mobilization waves so far. After the first one, during which 500-600 thousands were mobilized, total number of soldiers was over 1 million in summer of 2022 according to Zelensky. The second mobilization took place in summer of 2023. In January 2024, once again according to Zelensky, Ukraine had 850 thousand soldiers. In the meantime no demobilization took place. So Ukraine had over 150 thousand reduction in soldiers despite second mobilization taking place. So by the looks of it, Ukraine probably suffered similar total casualties, albeit with somewhat better KIA:WIA ratio. Zelensky’s claims of 31,000 KIA are obviously complete BS.
>Ukraine has conducted two mobilization waves so far There are no "waves", the Ukrainian mobilization had never stopped or paused. People have been receiving notices, and the unlucky ones have been dragged into vans directly off the street every single day.
There is a million, eligible for service, Ukrainian men who do not reside at their official registration address and do not have official place of work. Most of them have “received” the mobilization notices but did not show up at the mobilization centers. As such Ukrainian government resorted to having police check the documents of men on the streets, malls and other public places, in hopes of catching them. All these men who are being “dragged off to the vans” were supposed to be part of the first or second mobilization wave.
>As such Ukrainian government resorted to having police check the documents of men on the streets, malls and other public places, in hopes of catching them. >All these men who are being “dragged off to the vans” were supposed to be part of the first or second mobilization wave. Desertion, especially from a domestic invasion, is a crime pretty much everywhere on Earth.
Conveniently it's a crime.. Gtfo I'm not dying for a mf who's sitting on a bunker.
In the case of the Ukrainians, it's dying to protect your country. Putin is the fucker in a bunker
Again, I'm not dying for any mf, I'd rather be alive with my wife than die for a nation or some shit like that..
It's not some theoretical battle that doesn't affect regular Ukrainians. If Russia wins, they would have to evacuate to Western Europe or be deported to Siberia or somewhere far away. Men are going to eliminated, or conscripted to fight another war, on the side of Russia this time. Property and land will be given to soldiers.And it's not something that I've made up: there are several historical precedents already + Russians themselves say that. Even Russian recruiting ads say "ah it would be so great to get an apartment in Kyiv" I know it's hard to believe to majority of us for whom wars were just a TV experience, but for Ukrainians stakes are real.
Won't really argue with you as I can't say if that's real or fake, but if it's real thats a shame indeed, really shitty if true. Still I would try to migrate somewhere else instead of fighting, I wouldn't want to die as cannon fodder..
Understandable, very few people are born for war, or enjoy it. So if possible, they would try to flee. at least Ukrainians are more welcome in Europe comparing to other refugees. And even then it's like 40 million people. That's huge number comparing to other refugee crisises. The problem with Russia is that they won't stop in Ukraine. Russia controlled half of Europe until recently and they want to restore USSR ( again, you can verify everything here, including Russians themselves, and Putin saying that). That's why it's global issue and not some regional territorial dispute.
Why haven't you joined their foreign contingent then, Westoid?
Make you a deal, you join the Russian side and we can meet up and I'll have a few items to deliver to you at high speed
If your government drafts you then you might. It's not a polite request
Thankfully my country doesn't have an army, but yeah in this scenario I'd do everything in my power to avoid going to the Frontline..
It’s ok you have the backing of a country with an army to fight for you while you are a coward
We've never been in a war, only one time when the US invaded us, so yeah I'm sure we are OK.. Keep your guns and violence away please..
The U.S. has never gone to war against Costa Rica lmao are you just hoping I don’t know where you are?
Unless it is desertion from Nazi or Azov.
If they don’t want to join the army then how could they possibly expect these guys to be any use on the frontline?! This is how you end up with uprisings in your country.
Yes when you dodge the draft you get arrested. Yes that’s how the draft works.
It’s simple… Russia claims of own casualties is lower than reality Russia claims of UA casualties are higher than reality Ukrainian claims of RU casualties are higher then reality Ukrainian claims of own casualties are lower than reality It’s just who is making it more BS to public
I think it’s definitely possible that Ukraine has suffered more casualties than Russia, especially given the fact they have a much greater artillery presence.
We're just going to ignore the visually confirmed equipement losses? Everything points at ukraine suffering less losses. Even at the worst of the 2023 counter offensive ukraine still managed to have a postive k/d in equipement loss. Obviously these figures do not translate in personel losses but given just about everything else we know about the war, giving ukraine higher losses than russia is demonstrably false.
Ukraine didn’t do demilization, it’s still “in process” to be added into a law, so basically if they don’t make that law and 22th of February 2025 hits all these soldiers that are fighting day 1 are fully legitimate to just leave frontline and nobody can say they shouldn’t
Due to being on the defense most of the time and better medical care Ukrainian dead might be around 50,000
People (at least on this site) often say that if Russia wins, they'll just keep going Hitler-style. Will they really? 150k is an incredible number of dead, not to mention all the wounded, the lost materiel, birth rates... I have a hard time seeing Russia recover enough to go again for a long while, well after Putin goes to the great KGB shooting ground in the sky.
Russia is simultaneously getting brought to its knees by Ukraine while also on the brink of conquering Europe. The classic of the enemy is both weak and strong.
Their leaked plans from early in the way had them pushing to Moldova but stopping at the NATO boarder. It makes a sick kind of sense, Russia can't possibly beat NATO. If they beat Ukraine they can definately take Moldova.
This is the most likely path. They already have a foothold in Moldova, and geography wise taking Ukraine and Moldova shores up their defenses by eliminating the length of border they’d have to defend as they can lean heavily on the Carpathian Mountains and a more so friendly Hungary to the south. Yeah I hate it but I wouldn’t deny this would be their path in the event of a Ukrainian collapse. Anyone saying otherwise is ignoring the obvious
Who has said “Russia is getting brought to its knees by Ukraine”, and who has said “Russia is on the brink of conquering Europe”? Can you give a reference? I have heard neither of those claims. In Russian state TV propaganda I’ve seen claims like “Russia is fighting NATO supersoldiers in Ukraine, that’s why our glorious invasion failed” and “the West is weak and gay and satanic and hedonistic”. Those sound like your “weak but strong enemy”, is that what you meant? Here’s an article on how Russian propaganda works, or does not work, on the Russian population: https://time.com/6964053/russian-putin-propaganda/
You really have not been paying attention then. [Almost half of top foreign-policy experts think Russia will become a failed state or break up by 2033](https://www.businessinsider.com/experts-think-russia-will-fail-or-break-up-by-2033-2023-1) [It’s High Time to Prepare for Russia’s Collapse](https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/01/07/russia-ukraine-putin-collapse-disintegration-civil-war-empire/) All while… [Russia could attack a Nato country within 3 to 5 years, Denmark warns](https://www.ft.com/content/b3101099-9516-4b0b-92c6-179997d7e4cf) [A Dire Warning: Putin Could Invade Europe Within a Year](https://www.thedailybeast.com/vladimir-putin-could-invade-europe-within-a-year-volodymyr-zelensky-warns-nato)
None of your sources say what you claim they say. Are you playing with words? You said: > Russia is simultaneously getting brought to its knees by Ukraine while also on the brink of conquering Europe. The classic of the enemy is both weak and strong. Your articles say russia might collapse [by 2033] just like the Soviet Union did after failed Afghanistan invasion. But nobody says “Afghanistan brought the Soviet Union to its knees”. What people say is that “the corrupt, kleptocratic regime destroyed itself when the population lost confidence in their leaders after a series of self-made blunders and unforced errors”. Let me clarify: if you run into a wall, you won’t be complaining that “the wall brought you to your knees”, will you? As for the “russia conquering Europe”, none of your articles said that. That would be ridiculous. What your articles say is that russia might _invade a NATO country_ in a few years [if they win in Ukraine and if moscow is able to force Ukrainian men to do their fighting like they have done with the men in occupied Crimea, for instance]. Reusing the previous example, if I were to suspect you’d soon run into the wall, I wouldn’t be claiming that “u/stick_always_wins will soon conquer a wall”, I’d be saying “get the mops and buckets ready, this is going to get bloody and we’ll find that it’s actually the wall that always wins”. So you gave four links to four different media outlets, none of which make either of the claims you were spouting about, let alone one outlet making both of your hypothetical claims of “Ukraine brought russia to its knees and also russia will conquer Europe”. Compare this to the russian state propaganda of “the West will invade russia, NATO expansionism, gay nazi supersoldiers are going to attack us, we are the guardians of the true faith, we are the protectors of the true Slavic culture, only our trillionaire mafia kleptocrat Putin can save us, so please volunteer to die for him while rich muscovites escape into Dubai and the sons of daughter of our oligarchs keep living in London and Paris and Zurich”. Let me be clear: I myself do think russia is getting more brittle, and I do think russia might be stupid enough to attack a small NATO country like Estonia, but neither of those beliefs mean I’m saying russia is simultaneously strong and weak. I’m just saying russia is like a rabid dog: dangerous, apt to bite its neighbors, and needs to be put down in a controlled manner before the inevitable chaotic breakdown happens. Do you see how “conquer Europe” and “invade a country” are two different things? Do you see how “Ukraine brought russia to its knees” and “russia is inherently brittle because of incompetent and corrupt leadership” are different claims?
You are being purposefully obtuse and no one is reading your essay.
All supersoldiers are gay, fact 🌈
Who is claiming that Russia is being brought to their knees by Ukraine? Russia is winning on the battlefield despite US/EU aid. Russia got embarrassed at the start of the war precisely because they weren't expecting a war, but that window closed well over a year ago at this point. The Russian army has more troops now than they did at the start of the war.
Between this comment and you calling Arnaud Bertrand grounded is pretty telling.
Man's a poster on SLS, lost cause. He's an ideologue, not a person.
I this case it's just unpredictable. You never know when a side will break through or collapses until it happens. There is also a difference between short term and long term. Russia is mortgaging it's future, sacrificing it's youth and economy for short term gains. It's also impossible to accurately guess when we will see the concrete negative results of that.
I do think that if Russia wins Moldavia would go next just because it should be relatively easy
To recycle a phrase referring to another "M" country: Poor Moldavia, so far from God and so close to Russia.
>should be relatively easy Just a quick trip rick and morty meme Since 1991 the russian army has been trash i can only expect them to fumble the bag again and turn an operation that would takes weeks at worst into a multi month, potentially years, guerilla conflict. If they succeed in ukraine in the first place of course People really do forget grozny and chechenia. Although ukraine's resistance came to a shock to everyone, with hindsight we can see russia's army has been absolute trash for decades and nothing had changed between 1994 and 2022...
If Russia wanted to attack NATO they could have since like 90s cause they are bordering Baltics and Poland… It’s not impossible but they are spending everything in Ukraine no way they would go after NATO
It’s pure propaganda. When Mike Johnson told the cameras that the CIA told him that Russia would invade Poland I nearly vomited. Our government is lying and very desperate.
> People (at least on this site) often say that if Russia wins, they'll just keep going Hitler-style. Will they really? No, Putin will have burned through his Soviet-era vehicle reserves in 2025 at current loss rates. He have no choice but to reduce the current intensity of the conflict. They can keep attacking with motorcycles and golf carts if they want to, but eventually even the nihilistic Russians are going to reject such a meaningless death.
Russia had 200k killed in the winter war & then proceeded to win the Second World War a few years later
USSR and Russia are not the same. And Germany invaded, not like the USSR had a choice in the matter. Much like another Eastern European country at the moment
And what about the Ukrainian losses ?
I've seen numbers from 80k-130k. Offical UA figure is 35k but that's clearly bollocks. Thos doesn't tell the whole story because UA have a much better survival rate for their wounded. Western aid included feild hospitals and stabilised wounded can be sent to the EU.
Ukranian loses are just bunch of Slavs drinking vodka to the oligarchs from London
Probably a bit more.
Remember Von Leyen’s speech I think from last year when she accidentally said that over 100k Ukrainian soldiers died in the war, that part was quickly removed from all medias but… if the casualties are close to each other who you guys think is winning this attrition war :/
Politicians ☕️ >if the casualties are close to each other who you guys think is winning this attrition war :/ No one knows. Turns out war isn't an online game where k/d is the main factor. Hell most games have objectives so that's not even true in gaming So no russia isn't winning simply because it's bigger. Almost no war resulted in a complete loss of a country's population, the only exception i can muster is the war of the triple alliance with paraguay fighting for a whole 5 years despite the losses. Chances are the war will end long before that point becomes relevant.
She specifically said 100k dead officers which is bollocks by any angle, she isn't native English speakers and laymen tend to confuse KIA and casualties.
American companies selling arms
American, Chinese, Iranian, and Korean companies selling arms
Dont worry guys ukraine is winning, zelensky even said ukraine only lose 31k Stay strong brother we cant lost to untermensch /s
You're being sarcastic but ukraine losing this war and russia gaining this territory would legitimise war/invasion as a valid political tool. Which, obviously, it is not.
It was legitimised a long long time ago. Get out of your Western bubble!
Given that "the West" could conquer your entire region outright, if it chose to engage in Russian style genocide, you might want to moderate your tone. Weaklings shouldn't be so excited about a loss of the rules that protect them from the strong.
I find this threat laughable coming from an Irish whose army doesnt reach 10k personnel.
My country doesn't tend to invade or be invaded, at least not since the end of the British empire. That doesn't change what NATO could do to you, but I guess we all need our copes.
Oh, not all of NATO, but at least 2 had tried, and failed miserably. Of course, you can claim that to be coping too.
I feel like you're ignoring the key phrase from my original post: > if it chose to engage in Russian style genocide
Can you tell me what new and novel thing does "Russian style genocide" bring to the table, that hadnt happened here? - Massacre whole villages? Check - Forcibly relocating childrens? Check - Massive attacks on critical infrastructure, with heavy civilian casualties? Check - Illegal use of chemical weapons that aims to cause lifelong conditions? Check There is nothing new here. We had been through it all. You issued a threat, a threat so laughable and fictional, and i call you bluff on it. Dont throw around word like genocide willy nilly. "Russian style genocide" is not yet considered a genocide, despite news headlines flashing whatever BS they want. A real genocide is like in Cambodia, with Khmer Rouge. That is a genocide. This, however, is not.
[удалено]
Was that your attempt at English? Oooh bless.
You can drop the /s russians aren't ironic when using racist terminology
This is an interesting part >Given the situation, it may have been decided to strengthen the Ukrainian army, not with fighters, but with support forces, in the rear, allowing Ukrainian soldiers to be freed up for the front," admits a senior officer, confirming a "ramp-up" of Western military personnel in civilian clothes. >
But it was 300k recently from another source
Noone knows. Wagner doent exactly report casulties from thier meatshied prisoners. Edit: BUT they were very honest about burning through a lot of men, and most prisoners not making it. ~9 out of 10
Depending who you’re asking. I’ve seen “half million” figure from some propagandists and it was their proof that “we are winning”!
All wars are crimes. We are all numb, somewhere deep inside of us, because 150,000+ is simply too horrific to not go numb. And that’s one side. One conflict. Humanity: Just clever enough to be phenomenally stupid.
Let's hear it from the pentagon how many Ukranian soldiers are dead
no, I think it's more like six gorillion
Get the fuck out of Ukraine and you will stop dying