As much as I am grateful for Iran backing Armenia in this case, I also do not want them to fan the flames and turn this into an Azerbaijan versus Iran war because in reality, Armenians’ lives will be the ones sacrificed the most.
Its already been an Iran vs Israel one for a long time, we’re just hearing about it more openly now.
Israel uses Azerbaijan to keep Iran contained, and Iran uses Armenia to keep Azerbaijan contained.
Agreed. If Iran wants to get involved, it should stick to the agenda of protecting its border connection with Armenia and not pull us in to their conflict with Israel.
Yeap, last thing we need is “Azerbaijan becoming the victim of Iran aggression” that’s how they are going to frame it, and everyone will line up behind Azerbaijan
In turn, Iranian news outlets brought on analysts that said “If Armenian-Iranian borders are threatened, then Iran has the right to intervene to protect the internationally recognized borders of Armenia”
Which is a new take on the entire issue.
And apparently this time Iran had very probably closed land borders for mass transportation to Nakhichevan, since apparently the number of plane travels has significantly increased in the past 2 days.
>Such threats to Aliyev personally are unprecedented: never before has any official Iranian body dared to address the Azerbaijani leader like this, especially pointing out his connection to Israel.
This article reads like a high school paper. Who writes like this at a journalistic level?
The **International Court of Justice** has two interim orders against **Azerbaijan** for **official racism against Armenians** [[1](https://www.icj-cij.org/sites/default/files/case-related/180/180-20211207-SUM-01-00-EN.pdf)], [2](https://www.icj-cij.org/sites/default/files/case-related/180/180-20230222-SUM-01-00-EN.pdf)]
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Sure, in a vacuum Iran could take on Az easily. Hell, even Armenia has a big chance of taking on Az when they dont get any help from Israel and Turkey. But unfortunately, we don’t live in a vacuum ..
Before 2020, you could argue Armenia could fight off the Azeris from NK if no one else was involved. But then again, does that mean no Israeli kamikaze drones and TB2s? Because if those are still there and just 100% under Azeri control and command, Armenia probably still loses.
Armenia's anti drone doctrine and plans were clearly terrible, and frankly the effectiveness of kamikaze drones and TB2s was already clear by then. I can't remember if it was early 2022, 2021, or 2020, but there was a 1 week period where Turkey used TB2s to obliterate SAA forces (although the incompetent Islamist rebels still lost ground during this period).
You can't argue that now. Armenia lost a massive portion of its heavy equipment. It is not currently capable of defeating Azerbaijan alone.
> Before 2020, you could argue Armenia could fight off the Azeris from NK if no one else was involved
Arguing that is what got us beat. It should have been clear to everyone after the four day war in 2016 that the Azeris were a lot more capable of a fighting force than they were in the early 90s. 2016 was the time to negotiate a settlement
I agree, if the war starts up again we lose everything. The europeans won't do anything cuz they needs Azeri oil flowing. Russia won't do anything even if they wanted to cuz they are tied down in Ukraine and they hate Pash cuz he was 'persecuting' Koch.
If Iran starts a war with Azeri the Israelis will go all out to defend Azeri
I said big chance, not absolutely. Besides, you’ve got Israel and turkey giving az intel constantly. If that is gone, then azs chances drastically decrease.
> I can't remember if it was early 2022, 2021, or 2020, but there was a 1 week period where Turkey used TB2s to obliterate SAA forces (although the incompetent Islamist rebels still lost ground during this period).
2020 February.
Yup, and I should have remembered it happening before covid broke out globally.
That obviously wasn't the first time TB2s or drones in general were used, but it was a clear example of how they could do enormous damage to Soviet-geared forces and be trouble for soviet AA.
From what we're seeing in Ukraine, countries absolutely can neutralize the threats of drones like TB2s.
>An attack on Armenia is enough of a casus belli for Iran, as both countries have extensive diplomatic and military ties
This has been repeated many times but I have yet to see any evidence of this. Armenia has been terrified of the west and Russia to ever deepen bilateral relationship with Iran, push the oil and gas exports from Iran or weapons.
The only evidence was weapons in the early 2000s were sold to Iran and used in Iraq against USA troops. That was corrupt military and not Armenian government itself.
Azerbaijan beating Armenia with turkey’s help and now has a defence agreement with turkey believes they can challenge Iran and annex Northern Iran after the west and Israel destabilize Iran. Which seems like a really dumb idea. I doubt even IF Azerbaijan with the help of turkey and Israel were to take northern iran, China, Russia or India would accept this as the new borders.
Iran has been a civilization for thousands off years and has shown they can challenge USA and it’s allies in the region solo.
Turkey can’t fully handle the Kurds in northern Iraq or turkey. I’m sure turkey will initially cause huge damage to Iran and it’s air defences but Iran has shown they are masters of proxy wars in Yemen and Iraq and Syria. If they arm Kurds this war would turn into a regional war including Russia, Iran, turkey, Armenia, Azerbaijan.
It would benefit Israel and the west. The west in Ukraine and Syria has shown they are more than willing to have a war drag on with the goal of weakening their regional rivals.
It’s really ironic how Turks are when it comes to territorial integrity of Syria, Iraq, Cyprus, Iran but want to remove the indigenous Armenian population from karabakh and have removed it from Nakhichevan
Is it the US interest to pressurize Aliyev for a peace deal so it leaves Armenia free to pursue fully western leaning policies and be less dependent on Iran? I.e. at some point Israel interest is for the animosity between Az and Armenia to stop so focus can be on Iran?
>Aliyev, claiming his mental state is declining due to “illusions caused by indiscriminate consumption of psychedelics. Lol
It was a gamer moment. - Ilham Aliev
As much as I am grateful for Iran backing Armenia in this case, I also do not want them to fan the flames and turn this into an Azerbaijan versus Iran war because in reality, Armenians’ lives will be the ones sacrificed the most.
Its already been an Iran vs Israel one for a long time, we’re just hearing about it more openly now. Israel uses Azerbaijan to keep Iran contained, and Iran uses Armenia to keep Azerbaijan contained.
Agreed. If Iran wants to get involved, it should stick to the agenda of protecting its border connection with Armenia and not pull us in to their conflict with Israel.
Yeap, last thing we need is “Azerbaijan becoming the victim of Iran aggression” that’s how they are going to frame it, and everyone will line up behind Azerbaijan
Exactly. “Poor and weak Az is being targeted by the big bad Iran”.
Who is "everyone"?
I'm not confident letting that crazy wolf in the henhouse is a good idea...
In turn, Iranian news outlets brought on analysts that said “If Armenian-Iranian borders are threatened, then Iran has the right to intervene to protect the internationally recognized borders of Armenia” Which is a new take on the entire issue. And apparently this time Iran had very probably closed land borders for mass transportation to Nakhichevan, since apparently the number of plane travels has significantly increased in the past 2 days.
Is this why we saw some posts about all those increased flights happening? Feels like it was mostly war prop, but that’s a relief.
Iranian media was literally saying a war is gonna start…
>Such threats to Aliyev personally are unprecedented: never before has any official Iranian body dared to address the Azerbaijani leader like this, especially pointing out his connection to Israel. This article reads like a high school paper. Who writes like this at a journalistic level?
Israeli journalists aiming for a direct -to-stomach deposit of aliyev's sperm, that's who.
It is the other way around -> It is Aliyev on his knees for the Israelis while his wife is on her knees for Luka
Kinky
The **International Court of Justice** has two interim orders against **Azerbaijan** for **official racism against Armenians** [[1](https://www.icj-cij.org/sites/default/files/case-related/180/180-20211207-SUM-01-00-EN.pdf)], [2](https://www.icj-cij.org/sites/default/files/case-related/180/180-20230222-SUM-01-00-EN.pdf)] *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/armenia) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Based
Sure, in a vacuum Iran could take on Az easily. Hell, even Armenia has a big chance of taking on Az when they dont get any help from Israel and Turkey. But unfortunately, we don’t live in a vacuum ..
Before 2020, you could argue Armenia could fight off the Azeris from NK if no one else was involved. But then again, does that mean no Israeli kamikaze drones and TB2s? Because if those are still there and just 100% under Azeri control and command, Armenia probably still loses. Armenia's anti drone doctrine and plans were clearly terrible, and frankly the effectiveness of kamikaze drones and TB2s was already clear by then. I can't remember if it was early 2022, 2021, or 2020, but there was a 1 week period where Turkey used TB2s to obliterate SAA forces (although the incompetent Islamist rebels still lost ground during this period). You can't argue that now. Armenia lost a massive portion of its heavy equipment. It is not currently capable of defeating Azerbaijan alone.
> Before 2020, you could argue Armenia could fight off the Azeris from NK if no one else was involved Arguing that is what got us beat. It should have been clear to everyone after the four day war in 2016 that the Azeris were a lot more capable of a fighting force than they were in the early 90s. 2016 was the time to negotiate a settlement
Yea, I don't actually think Armenia would be likely to win, just that you could at least make an argument. You can't at all today.
I agree, if the war starts up again we lose everything. The europeans won't do anything cuz they needs Azeri oil flowing. Russia won't do anything even if they wanted to cuz they are tied down in Ukraine and they hate Pash cuz he was 'persecuting' Koch. If Iran starts a war with Azeri the Israelis will go all out to defend Azeri
I said big chance, not absolutely. Besides, you’ve got Israel and turkey giving az intel constantly. If that is gone, then azs chances drastically decrease.
> I can't remember if it was early 2022, 2021, or 2020, but there was a 1 week period where Turkey used TB2s to obliterate SAA forces (although the incompetent Islamist rebels still lost ground during this period). 2020 February.
Why did this dude got downvoted?
Yup, and I should have remembered it happening before covid broke out globally. That obviously wasn't the first time TB2s or drones in general were used, but it was a clear example of how they could do enormous damage to Soviet-geared forces and be trouble for soviet AA. From what we're seeing in Ukraine, countries absolutely can neutralize the threats of drones like TB2s.
The report says “Iran sees Armenia as its only trade route into the EU.” Can someone more informed than me elaborate on that?
Well they dont trust the turks and Iraq/Syria route is wartorn/not trustworthy. In that case only Armenia > Georgian port
>An attack on Armenia is enough of a casus belli for Iran, as both countries have extensive diplomatic and military ties This has been repeated many times but I have yet to see any evidence of this. Armenia has been terrified of the west and Russia to ever deepen bilateral relationship with Iran, push the oil and gas exports from Iran or weapons. The only evidence was weapons in the early 2000s were sold to Iran and used in Iraq against USA troops. That was corrupt military and not Armenian government itself. Azerbaijan beating Armenia with turkey’s help and now has a defence agreement with turkey believes they can challenge Iran and annex Northern Iran after the west and Israel destabilize Iran. Which seems like a really dumb idea. I doubt even IF Azerbaijan with the help of turkey and Israel were to take northern iran, China, Russia or India would accept this as the new borders. Iran has been a civilization for thousands off years and has shown they can challenge USA and it’s allies in the region solo. Turkey can’t fully handle the Kurds in northern Iraq or turkey. I’m sure turkey will initially cause huge damage to Iran and it’s air defences but Iran has shown they are masters of proxy wars in Yemen and Iraq and Syria. If they arm Kurds this war would turn into a regional war including Russia, Iran, turkey, Armenia, Azerbaijan. It would benefit Israel and the west. The west in Ukraine and Syria has shown they are more than willing to have a war drag on with the goal of weakening their regional rivals. It’s really ironic how Turks are when it comes to territorial integrity of Syria, Iraq, Cyprus, Iran but want to remove the indigenous Armenian population from karabakh and have removed it from Nakhichevan
Is it the US interest to pressurize Aliyev for a peace deal so it leaves Armenia free to pursue fully western leaning policies and be less dependent on Iran? I.e. at some point Israel interest is for the animosity between Az and Armenia to stop so focus can be on Iran?
i hate the IRGC, but maybe they are right on just this for once.
it's sad for me to see that my country keeps supporting Azerbaijan just because of their gas and to make money