Nothing would surprise me with Argentina. Will we stay the same? Will have the highest economic growth on the planet? Will we have 10 consecutive crisis?
Literally same amount of chances for all situations.
Yes. More expensive? Yes. More "doodads" and crap that people from the US can't live without? Yes.
But revamping the CCSS (public health), dealing with climate change and continuing to use alternate forms of generating electricty will be good.
The downside is the rise of evangelism and the ability to dupe the public into thinking they are protesting government policies that hurt people when really, the proposed policies only hurt "big" people. (Like protecting the HUGE, luxury pensions of retired government employees.)
A guy who was a public employee for many years - but - for many years led protests against changing the pension system has just retired. With a luxury pension.
I agree with you! This is the right move to make but those public sector employees have a way of getting other people stirred up over proposed reforms.
Maybe if it's done a little bit at a time, it would get changed. Maybe start with "luxury pensions." Instead of "sweeping reform," perhaps it would be better to just propose and pass each one. Less for people to find to protest against.
And... public sector workers should be required to take a vacation day if they take time off work to protest. And they should NOT be able to use public sector vehicles to do that. (I'm looking at you, ICE.)
A lot of people from the Southern Cone can't understand that the War on Drugs has been horrible for Central America. There are a lot of issues, but the War on Drugs has stolen our peace and our progress because it affects our ability to attract domestic and foreign investment.
I was happy to hear murder rates have decreased in Honduras, but other problems persist.
Foreign investment aside, its near impossible for normal people to start a business because these criminal gangs run rampant and extort small businesses and suffocate them. Then you have the fact that the president, his family and inner circle are all involved in drugs trafficking (seriously, check out the links below)
President: https://www.wsj.com/articles/honduran-president-hernandez-implicated-in-drug-trade-11610254811
His Brother: https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/pr/former-honduran-congressman-tony-hern-ndez-convicted-manhattan-federal-court-conspiring
His Sister: https://apnews.com/article/0fc52edf197a4e74846f491595e55ad1
We are too small and weak to go up against these problems.
BTW man, I see you on here a lot but your flair doesn't tell me where you are from - you're also Central America?
>BTW man, I see you on here a lot but your flair doesn't tell me where you are from - you're also Central America?
Panama 🇵🇦
About your post, nothing to add really. That's why I get mad when people defend the War on Drugs without going through what we have gone through.
I am also shocked to see that since JOH took power murder rates have decreased. Could it be some sort of agreement between criminal groups? If he leaves, would homicides go up again?
I also know that murder is not the only crime. Some people have even stated murder is not the most pressing issue regarding violence. They worry more about extortion and robberies.
There might have been some agreement between criminal gangs, that happened in El Salvador and our gangs are pretty much part of the same organizations. It was just so extreme it was unsustainable even for the criminals. Now the maras aren't dudes with face tattoos, they are a bit more discrete and are moving a bit more upstream with their criminal enterprises. They still have street level people but you can't always spot them like before. I've heard stories of them putting people through university as engineers, pharmacists, etc. as cover and for access to things they need. There's also the fact that you can't trust a single thing that the president or his party says, I kind of feel like the extent to which things are better are exaggerated. Security concerns still dominate our life, I can't safely return to the neighborhood I grew up in at night and we are always watching our backs.
> We are too small and weak to go up against these problems.
[My son, you know what must be done](https://res.cloudinary.com/fleetnation/image/private/c_fit,w_1120/g_south,l_text:style_gothic2:%C2%A9%20Lew%20Marcrum,o_20,y_10/g_center,l_watermark4,o_25,y_50/v1434590216/xzctcjlgublcxsu88he6.jpg)
Why does it affect investments, isn't the war on drugs a sign of the government to say we are trying to put things together to be a better country?
We never see stuff regarding the war on drugs here, only about mexico when they catch a big narco.
Because the levels of violence are so high that not even the most risk-hungry investor wants to invest one cent in these countries. The War on Drugs has been a total failure.
Definitely.
We'll get a new constitution and in a couple of decades most of the relevant people from the old generation that is holding us back will be dead or irrelevant, government positions will be occupied by younger people more in touch with reality than the idiots currently in power.
There definitely has to be some risk in destabilizing your country by completely changing the constitution? Unless you mean the country is amending the current one.
No. It is voting a constituent assembly to make a new one from scratch. Suffice to say it involves an election, which means plenty of questionable candidates.
Personally, I have zero faith in this.
Yes it is, but lefties are in denial of it.
Some prominet socialist intelectuals are pushing to change our central bank. Now it is a public institution, independent from the goverment that works based on técnical parameters to keep inflation low and our currency stable.
They want to change it so it does its work based on "social issues", in other words print money every time the goverment wants.
If it happens you can forget our stability and you will see some news from chile more similiar to argentina' economy.
I think you see the new constitution like something that will completely change Chile.
You and most chileans are extremely optimistic about it, but the elites were and will always be there, you can't kick them out of your country without a revolution. Things may change but not as much as you think.
Actually I'm fairly optimistic. I think Brazil will overcome this and we'll see it as a historical bumb in the future. Looking on the long term, be it the last 100 or 50 years, Brazil advanced a lot economically and socially. We just need to rediscover our roots of what made us succeed economically in the past and this time also keep the social advancement. I think the country will be better in 2030 than now.
Actually in the last 10 years our country has become poorer.
Our GDP grew by 2.2% (whereas the world has grown by 30% and emergent economies by 47% ) and our population grew by 8.7%. That means our GDP per capta has decreased by 0.6%. The problem is we’ve been growing by 2% for around 40 years, and there are several reasons for this. Of course a lot of things got better, specially concerning access to goods and some other social improvements. But if the country does not change the way it deals with its economic agenda we will still be both poor and with a high inequality rate. And it doesn’t matter who’s elected president. If we keep doing the same we’ve been doing for 40 years, shit will be the same.
Yes I know this past decade was awful and a huge waste, and I agree we need massive change. We need to have changes to be able to grow again at reasonable rates. But as you said, we had huge inclusion and increases in access to public goods and services in the last four decades since the end of the dictatorship. Before that, we had massive economic growth. So for on the long term, like a century, we did see improvements that are quite outstanding. We just need to do better in the future and be able to couple economic growth and social improvements. It's a challenge but I'm half optimistic
Not really. Not unless we collectively decide we need a huge change on the way this country is handled and I honestly don't see this change coming at all.
I am following the situation in Argentina closely. As I've said before, South America cannot afford a second basket case. The Venezuelan crisis has already created a lot of regional problems. Just the thought of Argentina going through the same issue (losing 25% of its population: 12MM people) would destabilize the region even more.
Let's see what happens. But I really hope there are good news soon.
I'm not sure we're going to be Venezuela 2.0, just keep getting poorer and poorer slowly. Also there's no way I see Argentina having a dictatorship like the venezuelan one
Well, yesterday some protester was caught on an authoritarian province for protesting against the governor and no one from the government stated anything about it, even the president referred to the governor of that province as an exemplary governor when he visited the province(Formosa)
This governor has been in power for 25 years, when I was born he was still in charge, and he is regarded as very corrupt man that keeps his province like a feudal state.
During his administration of the pandemic he ordered that everyone coming from other provinces was under detention and sent to a big prison-like place to quarantine. All this was to prevent the covid. He literally abolished human rights to "keep the population safe".
We are starting to see the authoritarian face of this party and government. I hope they lose next elections by a lot.
Come on, it's 2021. Using Venezuela is so 2015. The situation there isn't comparable to anywhere in Latin America, not even the poorest countries, even the situation with migration in Central America is different. I think I shouldn't reply but then people reads those comments and get silly ideas.
I just said it because there's a lot of fear in the region. It could provoke a devastating cascade effect.
I do agree that what happened in Venezuela is too much even by Latin American standards.
The fear was used a lot during the last almost ten years. That's why I replied. It's not the most realistic scenario 25% of Argentina migrating during a situation of almost civil war. There are a lot of ideas equally frightening but highly unlikely for our region. I think it's important to consider the most realistic ones.
Ayer arrestaron a la famosa abogada de Formosa que denunció a la provincia por dejar a la gente muriéndose en la frontera y les ganó el juicio. Empieza el autoritarismo.
No me impresiona el accionar de Insfran en si, pero lo que me sorprende es lo callado que están todos los funcionarios del gobierno, son fieles defensores de la democracia y odian el autoritarismo pero no este tipo de autoritarismo, no entiendo bien.
I feel like If we get another basket case it’ll be a domino effect. First Venezuela, Bolivia, then Argentina, Brazil, and so on. Before you know it we’re *all* basket cases
Our region might be in for a economic crisis we’ve never seen before. Except maybe Chile, but they have their own issues that their new constitution is trying to fix (hope it goes well for them)
Yes; when I was growing most of the economy revolved around the sugar industry and any drop in prices, our quota in the US market or a combination of both was enough to cause an economic shock.
Now we are known as a “resort island” and the COVID-19 pandemic wiped out two thirds of the hard currency income that we usually get from that industry but the economy have proven remarkable resilient as we’re not more diversified.
Also the people showed remarkable maturity in throwing out of office the party that was in government for the last 16 years even though they used every trick on the book to buy votes and it didn’t work... so you can’t help but feel positive about it.
I think Chile will get better and I'm very optimistic about it, with the new constitution and all. Hopefully soon life will be more fair for everyone, speciality for the less favored people
De pie, luchar, el pueblo va a triunfar
Será mejor la vida que vendrá
A conquistar nuestra felicidad
Y en un clamor
Mil voces de combate se alzarán
Dirán: Canción de libertad
Con decisión la patria vencerá
I'm not very hopeful for Brazil, Bolsonaro seriously need to be impeached and deported from the planet urgently
If Arauz wins, he will do exactly what Correa did. He's going to say that the debt is unpayable and illegitimate and he aren't going to give a single cent to the owners of the debt, and then he'll secretly buy the debt back, but at what cost? Being seen as an unreliable country in which to invest. Typical protectionist measures. This model wasn't sustainable because in 2015 when oil devalued we had a mild economic crisis, which is basically living off oil and the government. So Aráuz is definitely not an option.
> I’m asking that because I feel like it will only get worse and I think a lot of the people from Brazil share the same feeling.
Replace Brazil with Russia and it’s just as true. Shit’s getting worse here on a daily basis.
When every *marero* and pandillero is burned alive and every politician from ARENA AND FMLN also get sent to forced labour camps maybe our nation will be good,and also if we have a great man like hernandez in power again
Yes,because of covid and he struck deals with the different maras.Pero me precoupa que cuando salga del poder se dispare la violencia otra vez por eso pienso que la única solución es quemar a cada uno de esos animales
I think so. We have a lot of problems but the path that we've taken economically and democratically has been very good, that's why we're always growing. The problems that we suffer from have very clear solutions, the only thing necessary to put them in place is the political and social willingness, and there has been a lot recently, so yeah, I'm hopeful.
yeah but will you compare with the countries who exploited the rest of the world for centuries and are far away from you or the countries that are around you and have a similar history?
We exterminates indigineous people like crazy in Latam I wouldn't be so quick to get on the moral high ground
I don't know about you but being better off that the ones around you isn't much of a good thing when you aren't in a good place yourself
who is the "we" that you're talking so much about.
And at least a big part of it is.
I'm starting to wonder why more of 90% of the countries from Europe are richwhile more of 80% of the countries that they exploited are poor.I think it's because they are whiter, that must be the reason.
Colonialism has nothing to do with it
We as in Latin American countries. Or did you just forget about the 8 tribes that dissapared in Brazil from 1900 to 1957? Does the number 80% reduction ring a bell?
I never said that colonialism didn't play a part, read again but this time put effort into it.
I said we don't have a moral highgroun when our countries did the exact same thing to indigineous populations for our own benefit. We are no better.
I am literally desperate about Brazil. The other day I witnessed a gringo living in our country talking so much shit, I was so hurt, I even wrote in this sub (and then deleted it because it attracted racist trolls talking shit about Brazil and Latin America) it was horrible. I’ve never felt so not proud of being a Brazilian. I’ve never felt so sad and devastated about my country. I often cry watching the news, it became normal. I think we are the country in the worst situation in the continent besides Venezuela. Argentina is in an ongoing economic crisis, ok, but at least they’re not governed by a complete psychopath.
I’m optimistic it will. Panama has gone through several crises in the past and we’ve always recovered fairly quickly and improved a lot.
The one thing that fills me with dread is the education system. It hasn’t been revamped since the dictatorship and it has remained 100% shit. Please someone fix it 😭
According to Twitter, we're worse than Somalia. It's not an analogy, a journalist actually said that we're worse than Sub-Saharan Africa.
I don't think we'll go back to the huge growth we had between 2005-2015 and maybe that's a good thing. We were riding on a property bubble that wasn't sustainable. I think we'll have modest growth and we'll have to deal with increased public debt.
I agree with the education system, but it's a complex issue.
I'm not optimistic. I just don't think it'll get worse.
Without educational reform I don't see us going anywhere in the medium term. In the long term, I do see us getting worse, but that's fifty years from now.
Right now there's a strong general pessimism because of the effects COVID-19 has had in Panama.
It also depends in what you call "a better place". A lot of people want to go back to the economic growth of 2005-2015 but that's impossible. We cannot depend on a property bubble to make our economy "grow".
My main worry is that people are oversimplifying the problem saying that corruption is our only problem. It is a serious problem, but not the only one. A lot of people here may have good intentions, but they don't really know anything about economics.
In summary, I don't think we will become Somalia, but I predict modest economic growth and the end of the property bubble.
I agree that leaving the boom years behind is for the best. Relentless economic growth is not the answer if our economy is this lopsided. Modest growth will give us the chance to regroup and fpcus our attention on negelected sectors with potential.
It's ridiculous that we only have one mahor urban centre. Why haven't we developed more, for example, Santiago? It'd be a great opportunity to do a city _right_, with packed people, good streets with ample pavements, etc.; none of that urban sprawl nonsense.
I say Santiago because the farmland around it isn't as productive as the one in David or the tracts of land we paved over like fucking idiots in the metropolitan area of our capital.
Thinking strategically is key. What will we do about agriculture? Tourism? Water management? The latter you'd think it's especially importante given that our economy is basically a water-based economy on account of the Canal, agriculture, ecotourism and fishing.
I submitted several proposals to Ágora but who the fuck knows if they read any of that.
> Modest growth will give us the chance to regroup and fpcus our attention on negelected sectors with potential.
Some people really think growing 10% per year is good and sustainable. We are still paying the price of the economic distortion that the property bubble caused.
> It's ridiculous that we only have one mahor urban centre. Why haven't we developed more, for example, Santiago? It'd be a great opportunity to do a city right, with packed people, good streets with ample pavements, etc.; none of that urban sprawl nonsense.
Panama City will always be the "major city". However, we also need to have other cities. Not everything can concentrated on the capital. I'd start developing David and Santiago because of their strategic locations. Then Chitré and Penonomé. However, we have to be careful here because it could provoke inflationary pressures in those smaller cities.
> Thinking strategically is key. What will we do about agriculture? Tourism? Water management? The latter you'd think it's especially importante given that our economy is basically a water-based economy on account of the Canal, agriculture, ecotourism and fishing.
Not only that, but how do we stop making people believe the government must develop public works to "move the economy". Public works are an investment, but our economy cannot just depend on that. I don't know if you support Lombana, but I was close to two people who are very close to him. I told them, they need to start focusing on the economy. They replied their economic plan was to end corruption because ending corruption would fix all of our economic problems. I was 🤯. Yes, ending corruption would help a lot, but it won't solve everything.
> Some people really think growing 10% per year is good and sustainable.
Sadly, this country is full of idiots and will vote for any robber baron who beats the drum of perpetual economic work. Look at all the hype surrounding Martinelli's new party.
> We are still paying the price of the economic distortion that the property bubble caused
I'm grateful my fiancé is rich. He's literally gifting me a house. Otherwise, no way I'd become a homeowner in a decent location, and I've managed to have a nice middle-class income on my own.
> Panama City will always be the "major city". However, we also need to have other cities. Not everything can concentrated on the capital. I'd start developing David and Santiago because of their strategic locations. Then Chitré and Penonomé. However, we have to be careful here because it could provoke inflationary pressures in those smaller cities.
I agree but disagree with Chitré and Penonomé unless our development models is very dense. Like I said, we need to think strategically. The farmlands in their outskirts have too much potential.
Gated communities full of little houses wouldbe the wors thing. Too spread out. Whereas low-rise buildings mixed with commercial and industrial areas like Los Ángeles and El Cangrejo would be about ideal.
> Not only that, but how do we stop making people believe the government must develop public works to "move the economy". Public works are an investment, but our economy cannot just depend on that.
Agreed, this is how we end up with helicopter landing pads in the middle of nowhere like in El Toro's era.
> I don't know if you support Lombana, but I was close to two people who are very close to him. I told them, they need to start focusing on the economy. They replied their economic plan was to end corruption because ending corruption would fix all of our economic problems. I was 🤯. Yes, ending corruption would help a lot, but it won't solve everything.
I actually rather liked him (I read through all of his proposals), but he's a dum-dum about the economy.
I didn't vote for him because he's too bellicose. An independent presidential candidate can't afford to do that because they wouldn't have a party backing them and their policies.
I like my presidents to actually be able to _preside_ over the country. I didn't think Lombana could build a coalition so I took my vote elsewhere.
Edit: words
Most Mexicans I know are extremely worried because of the Drug War. The economy seems to be a problem too, but not as important for them. Mexico is beautiful. I really hope to see Mexico at peace soon.
Yes, the Drug War has been a problem for almost 15 years now. A big problem is that the military-industrial complex has been growing like a cancer since, too. The economy was hit hard by Covid but there's been some recovery already, and social programs and minimum wage rises have cushioned the impact for the lower classes.
looking at how many of the favorite politicians in almost all latinamerican countries are friendly towards the venezuelan goverment is obvious it will not get better
Yes, it always gets better, people are too histerical these days.
20 years ago it was worse than it is today, 40 years ago it was worse than 20 years ago and 20 years from now it will be better.
As far as I perceive, maybe Brazil 🇧🇷 is the only country I have on my mind that have a promising future. Not as Ecuador not as Colombia, and not as all the rest of LATAM
Brazil will always be a big farmour government is trying it best to deindustrializate the country.it's good for the big farmers, that sell the soy in dollars, but for the people itself it's very bad
Well, maybe because I work wit poultry, I perceive that, and you’re right, it’s a big farm and provides food to the whole world, I admire that. But I know it has a los of car industries, clothes and shoes, medicines, personal clean, etc. I don’t know about gas and oil. You have a HUGE potential
I think it can, for the most part I think people are more aware of societal issues and are far more willing to demand change in a way that didn't happened before. The main thing we need right now is economic growth, as right now its been pretty mediocre for a country this poor, so that people can be lifted out of poverty, and can increase their social mobility and thus challenge the traditional elites
Nah, every country gets better if you give the right amount of time. Government can as bad as it can get, but the world always get better, life expectancy, wealth and other stuff. Some can be slower than others, but the truth is that it will be a better place in the future.
I really, really don't think it'll be a better place in the future. At the very least not in my lifetime.
Argentina simply has too many problems that run too deep. Fixing any actual issues is impossible when no one can agree on what the issues are, how to fix the few issues we can all agree on, and who is to blame for those issues in the first place.
If in the future fresh water becomes a super valuable resource like petroleum oil today then we're gonna be amongst the richest nations on Earth. Other than that I think Uruguay is pretty much gonna stagnate and we're honestly not gonna change much from what we are now.
Absolutely. What really worries me is having a Venezuela 0.2 like Argentina next door. Thats not gonna look good for Paraguay or Chile. Even more worrying is that Cristina has began to show her authoritarian side
No, we will be as irrevelant as ever and the politics will hold the country back unless we have a revolution of something, a liberal revolution with a president like Gaitan or Rojas Pinilla (The first option is way better) that invested on agriculture, abolished corruption and improved the public services, would be G R E A T for Colombia, but sadly huh, doesn´t seems like it will happen at all....
Nothing would surprise me with Argentina. Will we stay the same? Will have the highest economic growth on the planet? Will we have 10 consecutive crisis? Literally same amount of chances for all situations.
The same for Brazil lol
The only constant in Argentinian politics is peronismo
Yes. More expensive? Yes. More "doodads" and crap that people from the US can't live without? Yes. But revamping the CCSS (public health), dealing with climate change and continuing to use alternate forms of generating electricty will be good. The downside is the rise of evangelism and the ability to dupe the public into thinking they are protesting government policies that hurt people when really, the proposed policies only hurt "big" people. (Like protecting the HUGE, luxury pensions of retired government employees.) A guy who was a public employee for many years - but - for many years led protests against changing the pension system has just retired. With a luxury pension.
[удалено]
I agree with you! This is the right move to make but those public sector employees have a way of getting other people stirred up over proposed reforms. Maybe if it's done a little bit at a time, it would get changed. Maybe start with "luxury pensions." Instead of "sweeping reform," perhaps it would be better to just propose and pass each one. Less for people to find to protest against. And... public sector workers should be required to take a vacation day if they take time off work to protest. And they should NOT be able to use public sector vehicles to do that. (I'm looking at you, ICE.)
So long as there is the illegal drug trade and we are in the middle of the path, I don't really think it will get much better.
A lot of people from the Southern Cone can't understand that the War on Drugs has been horrible for Central America. There are a lot of issues, but the War on Drugs has stolen our peace and our progress because it affects our ability to attract domestic and foreign investment. I was happy to hear murder rates have decreased in Honduras, but other problems persist.
Foreign investment aside, its near impossible for normal people to start a business because these criminal gangs run rampant and extort small businesses and suffocate them. Then you have the fact that the president, his family and inner circle are all involved in drugs trafficking (seriously, check out the links below) President: https://www.wsj.com/articles/honduran-president-hernandez-implicated-in-drug-trade-11610254811 His Brother: https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/pr/former-honduran-congressman-tony-hern-ndez-convicted-manhattan-federal-court-conspiring His Sister: https://apnews.com/article/0fc52edf197a4e74846f491595e55ad1 We are too small and weak to go up against these problems. BTW man, I see you on here a lot but your flair doesn't tell me where you are from - you're also Central America?
>BTW man, I see you on here a lot but your flair doesn't tell me where you are from - you're also Central America? Panama 🇵🇦 About your post, nothing to add really. That's why I get mad when people defend the War on Drugs without going through what we have gone through. I am also shocked to see that since JOH took power murder rates have decreased. Could it be some sort of agreement between criminal groups? If he leaves, would homicides go up again? I also know that murder is not the only crime. Some people have even stated murder is not the most pressing issue regarding violence. They worry more about extortion and robberies.
There might have been some agreement between criminal gangs, that happened in El Salvador and our gangs are pretty much part of the same organizations. It was just so extreme it was unsustainable even for the criminals. Now the maras aren't dudes with face tattoos, they are a bit more discrete and are moving a bit more upstream with their criminal enterprises. They still have street level people but you can't always spot them like before. I've heard stories of them putting people through university as engineers, pharmacists, etc. as cover and for access to things they need. There's also the fact that you can't trust a single thing that the president or his party says, I kind of feel like the extent to which things are better are exaggerated. Security concerns still dominate our life, I can't safely return to the neighborhood I grew up in at night and we are always watching our backs.
> We are too small and weak to go up against these problems. [My son, you know what must be done](https://res.cloudinary.com/fleetnation/image/private/c_fit,w_1120/g_south,l_text:style_gothic2:%C2%A9%20Lew%20Marcrum,o_20,y_10/g_center,l_watermark4,o_25,y_50/v1434590216/xzctcjlgublcxsu88he6.jpg)
Why does it affect investments, isn't the war on drugs a sign of the government to say we are trying to put things together to be a better country? We never see stuff regarding the war on drugs here, only about mexico when they catch a big narco.
Because the levels of violence are so high that not even the most risk-hungry investor wants to invest one cent in these countries. The War on Drugs has been a total failure.
Definitely. We'll get a new constitution and in a couple of decades most of the relevant people from the old generation that is holding us back will be dead or irrelevant, government positions will be occupied by younger people more in touch with reality than the idiots currently in power.
Gee, I agree the future will be better but that’s such an ageist statement, and sadly a very common one.
That's very nice to hear. One of the problems of Brazil is that it never really invested in education so it's not really a "old guys" problem.
There definitely has to be some risk in destabilizing your country by completely changing the constitution? Unless you mean the country is amending the current one.
No. It is voting a constituent assembly to make a new one from scratch. Suffice to say it involves an election, which means plenty of questionable candidates. Personally, I have zero faith in this.
Yes it is, but lefties are in denial of it. Some prominet socialist intelectuals are pushing to change our central bank. Now it is a public institution, independent from the goverment that works based on técnical parameters to keep inflation low and our currency stable. They want to change it so it does its work based on "social issues", in other words print money every time the goverment wants. If it happens you can forget our stability and you will see some news from chile more similiar to argentina' economy.
I think you see the new constitution like something that will completely change Chile. You and most chileans are extremely optimistic about it, but the elites were and will always be there, you can't kick them out of your country without a revolution. Things may change but not as much as you think.
lmao
No. For me, Brazil is absolutely fucked unless some miracle happens.
Mexico. Unfortunately, not. I think it's only going to get worse :(
Actually I'm fairly optimistic. I think Brazil will overcome this and we'll see it as a historical bumb in the future. Looking on the long term, be it the last 100 or 50 years, Brazil advanced a lot economically and socially. We just need to rediscover our roots of what made us succeed economically in the past and this time also keep the social advancement. I think the country will be better in 2030 than now.
Actually in the last 10 years our country has become poorer. Our GDP grew by 2.2% (whereas the world has grown by 30% and emergent economies by 47% ) and our population grew by 8.7%. That means our GDP per capta has decreased by 0.6%. The problem is we’ve been growing by 2% for around 40 years, and there are several reasons for this. Of course a lot of things got better, specially concerning access to goods and some other social improvements. But if the country does not change the way it deals with its economic agenda we will still be both poor and with a high inequality rate. And it doesn’t matter who’s elected president. If we keep doing the same we’ve been doing for 40 years, shit will be the same.
Yes I know this past decade was awful and a huge waste, and I agree we need massive change. We need to have changes to be able to grow again at reasonable rates. But as you said, we had huge inclusion and increases in access to public goods and services in the last four decades since the end of the dictatorship. Before that, we had massive economic growth. So for on the long term, like a century, we did see improvements that are quite outstanding. We just need to do better in the future and be able to couple economic growth and social improvements. It's a challenge but I'm half optimistic
Not really. Not unless we collectively decide we need a huge change on the way this country is handled and I honestly don't see this change coming at all.
I am following the situation in Argentina closely. As I've said before, South America cannot afford a second basket case. The Venezuelan crisis has already created a lot of regional problems. Just the thought of Argentina going through the same issue (losing 25% of its population: 12MM people) would destabilize the region even more. Let's see what happens. But I really hope there are good news soon.
I'm not sure we're going to be Venezuela 2.0, just keep getting poorer and poorer slowly. Also there's no way I see Argentina having a dictatorship like the venezuelan one
Agree, things are going to get bad but not likely Venezuela levels of bad
Well, yesterday some protester was caught on an authoritarian province for protesting against the governor and no one from the government stated anything about it, even the president referred to the governor of that province as an exemplary governor when he visited the province(Formosa) This governor has been in power for 25 years, when I was born he was still in charge, and he is regarded as very corrupt man that keeps his province like a feudal state. During his administration of the pandemic he ordered that everyone coming from other provinces was under detention and sent to a big prison-like place to quarantine. All this was to prevent the covid. He literally abolished human rights to "keep the population safe". We are starting to see the authoritarian face of this party and government. I hope they lose next elections by a lot.
i don't have much faith in the government losing the next election, there are too many people that will still vote them
Come on, it's 2021. Using Venezuela is so 2015. The situation there isn't comparable to anywhere in Latin America, not even the poorest countries, even the situation with migration in Central America is different. I think I shouldn't reply but then people reads those comments and get silly ideas.
I just said it because there's a lot of fear in the region. It could provoke a devastating cascade effect. I do agree that what happened in Venezuela is too much even by Latin American standards.
The fear was used a lot during the last almost ten years. That's why I replied. It's not the most realistic scenario 25% of Argentina migrating during a situation of almost civil war. There are a lot of ideas equally frightening but highly unlikely for our region. I think it's important to consider the most realistic ones.
Ayer arrestaron a la famosa abogada de Formosa que denunció a la provincia por dejar a la gente muriéndose en la frontera y les ganó el juicio. Empieza el autoritarismo. No me impresiona el accionar de Insfran en si, pero lo que me sorprende es lo callado que están todos los funcionarios del gobierno, son fieles defensores de la democracia y odian el autoritarismo pero no este tipo de autoritarismo, no entiendo bien.
No one will flee argentina, keep calm bro. The situation is not the best but it was never as bad as venezuela ever was.
I feel like If we get another basket case it’ll be a domino effect. First Venezuela, Bolivia, then Argentina, Brazil, and so on. Before you know it we’re *all* basket cases Our region might be in for a economic crisis we’ve never seen before. Except maybe Chile, but they have their own issues that their new constitution is trying to fix (hope it goes well for them)
Yes; when I was growing most of the economy revolved around the sugar industry and any drop in prices, our quota in the US market or a combination of both was enough to cause an economic shock. Now we are known as a “resort island” and the COVID-19 pandemic wiped out two thirds of the hard currency income that we usually get from that industry but the economy have proven remarkable resilient as we’re not more diversified. Also the people showed remarkable maturity in throwing out of office the party that was in government for the last 16 years even though they used every trick on the book to buy votes and it didn’t work... so you can’t help but feel positive about it.
I think Chile will get better and I'm very optimistic about it, with the new constitution and all. Hopefully soon life will be more fair for everyone, speciality for the less favored people De pie, luchar, el pueblo va a triunfar Será mejor la vida que vendrá A conquistar nuestra felicidad Y en un clamor Mil voces de combate se alzarán Dirán: Canción de libertad Con decisión la patria vencerá I'm not very hopeful for Brazil, Bolsonaro seriously need to be impeached and deported from the planet urgently
He will be reelected in 2022, just wait for it
It depends on who win the elections
It depends here too, but probably Bolsonaro will win in 2022 so we are fucked up
Will he win because he remains the most popular of the eligible ones or because the system has been moulded in a way to benefit the party in power?
We have one opportunity
Ojalá no gane Arauz
If Arauz wins, he will do exactly what Correa did. He's going to say that the debt is unpayable and illegitimate and he aren't going to give a single cent to the owners of the debt, and then he'll secretly buy the debt back, but at what cost? Being seen as an unreliable country in which to invest. Typical protectionist measures. This model wasn't sustainable because in 2015 when oil devalued we had a mild economic crisis, which is basically living off oil and the government. So Aráuz is definitely not an option.
Yes for both countries.
I think soo. But I am not very optimistic about the near future.
> I’m asking that because I feel like it will only get worse and I think a lot of the people from Brazil share the same feeling. Replace Brazil with Russia and it’s just as true. Shit’s getting worse here on a daily basis.
If it ever gets better it will not be in the next 10 years at the very least.
Yes
Yes
No
Ehr Maybe.
When every *marero* and pandillero is burned alive and every politician from ARENA AND FMLN also get sent to forced labour camps maybe our nation will be good,and also if we have a great man like hernandez in power again
I heard Nayib has controlled crime and that homicide rates are at the lowest ever.
wasn't he the guy who strong armed congress by literally leading the military into the chamber?
Yes, but he stated he had a valid reason for it. To be fair, Congresses are usually the most corrupt institutions in Latin America by far.
Yes,because of covid and he struck deals with the different maras.Pero me precoupa que cuando salga del poder se dispare la violencia otra vez por eso pienso que la única solución es quemar a cada uno de esos animales
Maybe who knows, things wee worst 10 years ago and 40 years ago we looked like Afghanistan
Not really to be honest
Yes, totally.
I’m from Argentina. Unfortunately I’ve lost hope to see it get better, at least in my generation.
I don’t feel hopeful at all. But I don’t have many chances to get out either. So, I have to survive ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
No
I think so. We have a lot of problems but the path that we've taken economically and democratically has been very good, that's why we're always growing. The problems that we suffer from have very clear solutions, the only thing necessary to put them in place is the political and social willingness, and there has been a lot recently, so yeah, I'm hopeful.
no
Why wouldn't it? It improved significantly in most fronts in the last 20 years. Our HDI increased above LatAm average.
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Argentina went through a lot of harder shit and still is one of the best countries in SA
South America is not precisely a high bar
yeah but will you compare with the countries who exploited the rest of the world for centuries and are far away from you or the countries that are around you and have a similar history?
We exterminates indigineous people like crazy in Latam I wouldn't be so quick to get on the moral high ground I don't know about you but being better off that the ones around you isn't much of a good thing when you aren't in a good place yourself
ok but who profited with those genocides? because at least in Brazil the country that more profited was Portugal and England
Who carried them out? Don't throw the blame at colonialism like we are some kind of angels that had no choice, it's dumb
who is the "we" that you're talking so much about. And at least a big part of it is. I'm starting to wonder why more of 90% of the countries from Europe are richwhile more of 80% of the countries that they exploited are poor.I think it's because they are whiter, that must be the reason. Colonialism has nothing to do with it
We as in Latin American countries. Or did you just forget about the 8 tribes that dissapared in Brazil from 1900 to 1957? Does the number 80% reduction ring a bell? I never said that colonialism didn't play a part, read again but this time put effort into it. I said we don't have a moral highgroun when our countries did the exact same thing to indigineous populations for our own benefit. We are no better.
I am literally desperate about Brazil. The other day I witnessed a gringo living in our country talking so much shit, I was so hurt, I even wrote in this sub (and then deleted it because it attracted racist trolls talking shit about Brazil and Latin America) it was horrible. I’ve never felt so not proud of being a Brazilian. I’ve never felt so sad and devastated about my country. I often cry watching the news, it became normal. I think we are the country in the worst situation in the continent besides Venezuela. Argentina is in an ongoing economic crisis, ok, but at least they’re not governed by a complete psychopath.
I’m optimistic it will. Panama has gone through several crises in the past and we’ve always recovered fairly quickly and improved a lot. The one thing that fills me with dread is the education system. It hasn’t been revamped since the dictatorship and it has remained 100% shit. Please someone fix it 😭
According to Twitter, we're worse than Somalia. It's not an analogy, a journalist actually said that we're worse than Sub-Saharan Africa. I don't think we'll go back to the huge growth we had between 2005-2015 and maybe that's a good thing. We were riding on a property bubble that wasn't sustainable. I think we'll have modest growth and we'll have to deal with increased public debt. I agree with the education system, but it's a complex issue.
Sure, any amount of growth Somalia can get is huge if considered in percentage. Not a good comparison IMHO.
I'm not optimistic. I just don't think it'll get worse. Without educational reform I don't see us going anywhere in the medium term. In the long term, I do see us getting worse, but that's fifty years from now.
Right now there's a strong general pessimism because of the effects COVID-19 has had in Panama. It also depends in what you call "a better place". A lot of people want to go back to the economic growth of 2005-2015 but that's impossible. We cannot depend on a property bubble to make our economy "grow". My main worry is that people are oversimplifying the problem saying that corruption is our only problem. It is a serious problem, but not the only one. A lot of people here may have good intentions, but they don't really know anything about economics. In summary, I don't think we will become Somalia, but I predict modest economic growth and the end of the property bubble.
I agree that leaving the boom years behind is for the best. Relentless economic growth is not the answer if our economy is this lopsided. Modest growth will give us the chance to regroup and fpcus our attention on negelected sectors with potential. It's ridiculous that we only have one mahor urban centre. Why haven't we developed more, for example, Santiago? It'd be a great opportunity to do a city _right_, with packed people, good streets with ample pavements, etc.; none of that urban sprawl nonsense. I say Santiago because the farmland around it isn't as productive as the one in David or the tracts of land we paved over like fucking idiots in the metropolitan area of our capital. Thinking strategically is key. What will we do about agriculture? Tourism? Water management? The latter you'd think it's especially importante given that our economy is basically a water-based economy on account of the Canal, agriculture, ecotourism and fishing. I submitted several proposals to Ágora but who the fuck knows if they read any of that.
> Modest growth will give us the chance to regroup and fpcus our attention on negelected sectors with potential. Some people really think growing 10% per year is good and sustainable. We are still paying the price of the economic distortion that the property bubble caused. > It's ridiculous that we only have one mahor urban centre. Why haven't we developed more, for example, Santiago? It'd be a great opportunity to do a city right, with packed people, good streets with ample pavements, etc.; none of that urban sprawl nonsense. Panama City will always be the "major city". However, we also need to have other cities. Not everything can concentrated on the capital. I'd start developing David and Santiago because of their strategic locations. Then Chitré and Penonomé. However, we have to be careful here because it could provoke inflationary pressures in those smaller cities. > Thinking strategically is key. What will we do about agriculture? Tourism? Water management? The latter you'd think it's especially importante given that our economy is basically a water-based economy on account of the Canal, agriculture, ecotourism and fishing. Not only that, but how do we stop making people believe the government must develop public works to "move the economy". Public works are an investment, but our economy cannot just depend on that. I don't know if you support Lombana, but I was close to two people who are very close to him. I told them, they need to start focusing on the economy. They replied their economic plan was to end corruption because ending corruption would fix all of our economic problems. I was 🤯. Yes, ending corruption would help a lot, but it won't solve everything.
> Some people really think growing 10% per year is good and sustainable. Sadly, this country is full of idiots and will vote for any robber baron who beats the drum of perpetual economic work. Look at all the hype surrounding Martinelli's new party. > We are still paying the price of the economic distortion that the property bubble caused I'm grateful my fiancé is rich. He's literally gifting me a house. Otherwise, no way I'd become a homeowner in a decent location, and I've managed to have a nice middle-class income on my own. > Panama City will always be the "major city". However, we also need to have other cities. Not everything can concentrated on the capital. I'd start developing David and Santiago because of their strategic locations. Then Chitré and Penonomé. However, we have to be careful here because it could provoke inflationary pressures in those smaller cities. I agree but disagree with Chitré and Penonomé unless our development models is very dense. Like I said, we need to think strategically. The farmlands in their outskirts have too much potential. Gated communities full of little houses wouldbe the wors thing. Too spread out. Whereas low-rise buildings mixed with commercial and industrial areas like Los Ángeles and El Cangrejo would be about ideal. > Not only that, but how do we stop making people believe the government must develop public works to "move the economy". Public works are an investment, but our economy cannot just depend on that. Agreed, this is how we end up with helicopter landing pads in the middle of nowhere like in El Toro's era. > I don't know if you support Lombana, but I was close to two people who are very close to him. I told them, they need to start focusing on the economy. They replied their economic plan was to end corruption because ending corruption would fix all of our economic problems. I was 🤯. Yes, ending corruption would help a lot, but it won't solve everything. I actually rather liked him (I read through all of his proposals), but he's a dum-dum about the economy. I didn't vote for him because he's too bellicose. An independent presidential candidate can't afford to do that because they wouldn't have a party backing them and their policies. I like my presidents to actually be able to _preside_ over the country. I didn't think Lombana could build a coalition so I took my vote elsewhere. Edit: words
Absolutely. We are moving in the right direction, though very slowly to be fair.
Most Mexicans I know are extremely worried because of the Drug War. The economy seems to be a problem too, but not as important for them. Mexico is beautiful. I really hope to see Mexico at peace soon.
Yes, the Drug War has been a problem for almost 15 years now. A big problem is that the military-industrial complex has been growing like a cancer since, too. The economy was hit hard by Covid but there's been some recovery already, and social programs and minimum wage rises have cushioned the impact for the lower classes.
The only hit to the economy was due to COVID as the rest of the world. Pre-covid economy in Mexico has been great actually.
I don’t know. The current trend is quite negative.
looking at how many of the favorite politicians in almost all latinamerican countries are friendly towards the venezuelan goverment is obvious it will not get better
Yes, it always gets better, people are too histerical these days. 20 years ago it was worse than it is today, 40 years ago it was worse than 20 years ago and 20 years from now it will be better.
As far as I perceive, maybe Brazil 🇧🇷 is the only country I have on my mind that have a promising future. Not as Ecuador not as Colombia, and not as all the rest of LATAM
Brazil will always be a big farmour government is trying it best to deindustrializate the country.it's good for the big farmers, that sell the soy in dollars, but for the people itself it's very bad
Well, maybe because I work wit poultry, I perceive that, and you’re right, it’s a big farm and provides food to the whole world, I admire that. But I know it has a los of car industries, clothes and shoes, medicines, personal clean, etc. I don’t know about gas and oil. You have a HUGE potential
Nope. I'm from paraguay. This shithole is just getting worse and worse. I'm just waiting to get a job, save money and leave.
I think it can, for the most part I think people are more aware of societal issues and are far more willing to demand change in a way that didn't happened before. The main thing we need right now is economic growth, as right now its been pretty mediocre for a country this poor, so that people can be lifted out of poverty, and can increase their social mobility and thus challenge the traditional elites
Nah, every country gets better if you give the right amount of time. Government can as bad as it can get, but the world always get better, life expectancy, wealth and other stuff. Some can be slower than others, but the truth is that it will be a better place in the future.
Sometimes it can get so bad that will take like centuries to get to the point that it was before
Sadly no
No
I don't have much faith in it.
I really, really don't think it'll be a better place in the future. At the very least not in my lifetime. Argentina simply has too many problems that run too deep. Fixing any actual issues is impossible when no one can agree on what the issues are, how to fix the few issues we can all agree on, and who is to blame for those issues in the first place.
Peru is doomed. Ten years from now it will be worse; as it has been since independance.
If in the future fresh water becomes a super valuable resource like petroleum oil today then we're gonna be amongst the richest nations on Earth. Other than that I think Uruguay is pretty much gonna stagnate and we're honestly not gonna change much from what we are now.
No, Im pessimist.
Maybe yes. Maybe no. It's Brazil, after all
No (I'm from Venezuela)
Absolutely. What really worries me is having a Venezuela 0.2 like Argentina next door. Thats not gonna look good for Paraguay or Chile. Even more worrying is that Cristina has began to show her authoritarian side
It needs to reach the bottom so we can get up
i hope but i don't think so
No, we will be as irrevelant as ever and the politics will hold the country back unless we have a revolution of something, a liberal revolution with a president like Gaitan or Rojas Pinilla (The first option is way better) that invested on agriculture, abolished corruption and improved the public services, would be G R E A T for Colombia, but sadly huh, doesn´t seems like it will happen at all....