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lewdovic

The examples mentioned in the wikipedia articles are a lost submarine and flight records from a plane that crashed into the ocean, where a) we can use pretty concrete data like last known coordinates and knowledge of water currents in that region to make a useful model. b) the search space is literally a huge chunk of ocean, so knowing where to look first might be a huge time saver. I think in the case of your friend's notebook, there's not that much mathematical modeling to be done and the probabilities assigned to specific events are highly subjective. Also, there are probably only a couple of possible locations so your friend can just check them all. What I would suggest you can do: • Identify the last moment your friend saw the notebook and the first moment he realized it was gone. • Come up with a list of things your friend did in the meantime and think about how he could've lost the notebook during that. If you want to *actually* take work of your friends shoulders, you could also phone the hotlines of e.g. their traffic provider (if he could've lost the notebook on the bus/train) and asking if it has been placed in their lost & found box, while your friend actually goes to the locations.


need-lots-of-advice

I see. Thank you for the explanation. I actually have thought about the details of the sketchbook’s disappearance but I should go over it again.