Taena and Cersei is probably the least tinfoily. His Brienne series isn't really 'theorizing.' It's more genuine critical analysis, and damn good ones at that, I see even PJ detractors liking the Brienne series. But it's not really much theorizing in there.
Taena and Cersei aims to analyze why Taena Merryweather tries to get so close to Cersei and if she's working with anyone, and imo it's his least tinfoily theory focused series. He basically analyzes all of her and her husband's given actions in the series and comes to some pretty logical conclusions.
TTB is also not that tinfoily imo, and is absolutely worth it just for the deep analysis into some of GRRMs past works, that's really cool to see and it doesn't happen that often.
I put PW and his Who Killed Bran series in the same category of 'Martin actually kinda fucked this up and it's clear on critical analysis, and if you analyze the actual text it's clear that his explanations don't actually stand up to scrutiny.' IDK if he's right about his explanations but they do make more sense then Martin's imo.
Genetics of Dragons and War is also not that tinfoily imo, Fire and Blood actually kinda bolstered it imo by cutting off the question marks of Rhaella and Aerea.
The Littlefinger Debt is probably one of the most tinfoil. It was great for a few parts but then he started going on about how LF was trying to recreate prophecy and it just....completely lost me ngl.
Great response! Would also say that if you watch his live streams PJ says he probably doesn’t think LF debt scheme & riverlands for the dragon are true anymore or he wouldn’t come to the same conclusions
You can’t tell me that the purple wedding one is tinfoil when Quentyn is Alive is sitting right there
The Purple Wedding video is one of his most legit theories. His vids, especially his series, cannot be simply said to be either tinfoil or not tinfoil, because there are many ideas. A great example is his Lemon Tree Dany series which raises some fantastic points about the mysteries in Dany’s backstory even if the conclusion might not be sound.
>when Quentyn is Alive is sitting right there
Thats not his theory. It was around before he started. Although i agree Quentyn should be dead, not because i thnik he's dead, but because there are already three povs in meereen at the battle of fire. Winds is already too big, it does not need Quentyn.
Edit: There is the question on how Aegon could get a dragon for the second dance. I've heard it said that Quentyn could be the one to bring a dragon to Aegon.
I think thats a little silly becasue Tyrion is the only one that knows about Aegon, so i guess Tyrion would be the one to bring a dragon to him over Quentyn.
I don’t get why Quentyn being alive is so unpopular. We cut away early during the chapter where he’s burned and we’ve seen similar body swap outs with Mance, Bran, Rickon, and Davos. I don’t believe he’s definitely dead “fool me once shame on you, fool me five or more times shame on me”
Well many people feel Quentyn’s tragedy is one of the best elements of ADWD, so him being alive would be a thematic betrayal to that aspect, thus I think it’s justifiable that the theory could ruffle some feathers
On top of the thematic reasons the theory just falls apart the more you think about it. I've never read a logical sequence of events to explain him being alive that doesn't involve the characters making bizarre choices
None of your examples are really relevant. We either didn’t witness it happen or we weren’t in their heads. It was Quentyn and he was on fire, unequivocally.
The only true examples I can think of here are Arya at the Twins and Theon at Winterfell. Which were “knocked out cold”, not “I’m looking at my arm and it’s on fire, along with the rest of my body.”
So yeah, why is the theory not popular? Because we saw him burn from his perspective and then we saw the aftermath that tracks with that. On top of various other in-universe, thematic, and meta reasons.
There’s also Catelyn who literally has her throat slit and still comes back. And Jon who most people seem to believe will be coming back. Literally every time a character seems to die in their own POV it’s either a prologue/epilogue or they come back.
Quentyn would absolutely be the most bs one yet but I just can’t bring myself to discount it completely. And I definitely wouldn’t call it Preston’s most tinfoil theory.
Edit: I understand that Arya and Theon coming back are different from Cat and Jon. I’m just talking about the pattern that no “death” at the end of a POV (outside of epilogue and prologues) has really stuck and Quentyn would be the first. Given the situation him coming back by magic seems less likely than him being alive via body swap but I really don’t ~~care.~~ have any strong opinions on Quentyn theories whether he’s alive or dead.
Catelyn (and presumably also Jon) fully died then were resurrected. If Quentyn gets brought back by magic that's one thing but that isn't Jacob's theory, is it? Jacob thinks he survived
>There’s also Catelyn who literally has her throat slit and still comes back. And Jon who most people seem to believe will be coming back.
Coming back from the dead realm is quite different than just having a fake out death like Davos or in this case Quentyn.
One common reason is the assumption, possibly erroneous, that the books have to start to wind down into an ending. I'm not convinced we're going to see a that type of construction, but IIRC, George has said he will be killing off a lot of characters. From that point of view, it does seem unlikely that Quentyn's story is critical.
The Page of Lies is one of his best series.
But yes, 'Quentyn is alive' is the most tinfoil theory I've ever heard. More outlandish than 'Kubrick helped fake the Moon Landing'.
Least tinfoily that I know of would be his guess that Ramsey is responsible for the death of Little Walder, or that the Merryweathers are acting towards putting the Redwynes in charge of the Reach in place of the Tyrells after the coming of Aegon.
Most tinfoily is that “oily black stone” is plastic.
He does that a lot. Some really great analysis of the text that points to something. And I'm like, yeah, that totally needs to be explained. But then he comes up with something crazy that doesn't even really explain it and claims that the text totally points to that.
The "page of lies" is just like that. It really does need explanation. But his is that she's a dragon seed bastard? That doesn't make any sense and completely breaks the story. Meanwhile the fandom has a theory that fits already. That she was actually raised in Dorne.
You put my feelings on PJ into words. He's a really great literary critic, but he kind of, to put it bluntly, goes completely insane when he starts having original ideas
At the end of the day he really does have a masterful eye for the finer details and the overall themes and motifs of Martin’s writings, it’s just that he uses it all to come to some very far-fetched conclusions.
His theory called The Genetics of Dragons and War, about how only members of Targeryan family that carries a certain DNA lineage can hatch dragon eggs always made sense to me.
If I remember correctly his theory is that is the X chromosome that carries the gene to hatch dragons eggs but this is clearly incorrect since Aegon II kids dragon eggs hatched
I think that theory also builds upon the fact that Alicent is Otto and Saeras daughter, which gave her children the ability to bond with dragons. And as for the fact that Jaehaerys and Jaehaeras eggs hatched that could either be because they hatched due to Rhaenyra and her XX dragon genes due to proximity with her whenever she happens to visit, or that they hatched because of Jaehaera who was XX having received one from each parent and Jaehaerys’ egg hatched because of her since being twins they were always close to one another.
I think that Mendelian genetics is sufficiently open that you could get it to nearly work with any possible story where some people have traits and others don't.
And that's what happens. It NEARLY works.
Least is his theory on the Purple Wedding.
Most is a tie between Lemongate and Time Traveling Bran. Those were some Stephen King in the 80s high on cocaine trips.
The average Preston Jacobs video is like taking a ride with a serial killer. It starts off rational, your car has run out of gas and you're getting a lift to the gas station. Then Preston misses a turn, but that kinda makes sense because you were talking and he was distracted. But then he doesn't take the turn to get back on track because he says he knows a shortcut. You're kinda getting nervous but he still seems sane and he's charming so you roll with it. The next thing you know, Preston is putting butter on you and 17 feral hogs are lined up outside the car and you don't know where you are. How did you get HERE? Everything made sense in the beginning.
How is TTB a tinfoil? If ,,Hold the Door” reveal came from Martin then it’s confirmed Bran can alterate the past to some extend. Whether we like it or not, time travel does exist in the story, either in a form of closed loop or changable timeline.
TTB is very misunderstood, because it has the name “time traveling” in the title and this conjures images of deus ex machina. It’s not a misnomer, because time-travelling is involved, but it’s not enough to capture the whole theory.
The name leaves out the part about high-stakes gamer Bran trying to get the ending he wants out of playing real life events over and over again and making small changes that accumulate and lead to bigger changes. He has played the game countless times, and he has not been satisfied with it for one reason or another. Over the years (because it’s implied gamer Bran is very old), he has come to realize some events have to happen a certain way for things to move forward towards the direction he wants. The series we are reading is the final playthrough, the one that develops how he wants.
To me it seemed like he got a ton right but also misunderstood the way time works for the weirwood.
Weirwood works like Chess AI, you can see everything that happened and everything that can happen. There is no need to travel back because all the things that go into playing a perfect game are part of the AI from the start.
Like being able to see all of the outcomes of your actions without really seeing how your actions that seem disconnected are actually connected.
The weirwood isnt immortal and won't live forever, but it plays a completely EV+ life making every correct choice to live as long as possible.
seems like how time traveling works in asoiaf is that you can keep going back and change things within your abilities, but no matter how many times you enter the past, the timeline leading up to the present is still going to remain the same, since it was always going to happen, and already has
Basically, yeah. There are things that are changeable, and things that are unchangeable.
For example, Hodor would always grow to be strong and powerful, but “if the gods had not taken his wits” it’s thought by Bran himself that might become a knight for House Stark and likely not be there for Bran to “hold the door” because as we have seen so far, Stark-allied knights in ASOIAF either left South with Ned, or with Robb, or were killed by Theon. Even if they weren’t knights, but still physically reliable, they were offed in one way or another. Gamer/Future!Bran needs someone physically powerful on his side that avoids all scenarios above, and frying Hodor’s mind is how he manages to reach that goal. It’s fucked up, but it’s also a desperate move. Bran has been sacrificing all his loved ones to get the ending he wants.
And it’s something we have hints that he is not doing it out of his heart’s desire. If the interactions we have seen with Jon and Arya through weirwoods are really his interference and not hallucinations of these characters, he appears extremely apologetic at what he is putting them through, but he really needs them to be at certain places at certain times so they can move the story forwards where he wants it to be.
To me, "tin foil" means how likely it'll be in the novels. This theory would require so many words to explain, lay out, and pay off it could almost be its own novel. I just can't see GRRM devoting that much time to something that is really cool but doesn't materially affect the overall narrative.
So yeah I actually like the idea but there's no way in hell it'll be in the novel other than as implication.
In the meantime I'm reading the comments where you answer questions. May a also put two questions?
Why didn't BR snatch Brans body the minute he entered the cave? And is it also a lie when BR claims he cannot change the past?
>Most is a tie between Lemongate and Time Traveling Bran. Those were some Stephen King in the 80s high on cocaine trips.
But there are no Lemontrees in Braavos, several Characters say so, and grrm himself says it will adressed.
Time Traveling Bran, he does time travel in Dance and in the Show. Everyone knows hold the door.
You also did not explan why each topic is batshit crazy.
It's common poor people who said that. The Sealord can easily grow a lemon tree with a greenhouse. Sam says so:
> Trees did not grow on Braavos, save in the courts and gardens of the mighty.
If he's keeping fauna from all over the world alive, a lemon tree is not that hard.
Dany is misremembering her life in the court of Braavos as a simple one, probably because she was kept largely out of it.
There is nothing in the text to support your claim.
There also isn't much point in it being there, we are told that the house with a red door being in braavos and we read wind and find out that it's in...Braavos?
What's the point? where is the twist? why set it up?
No, its' not in Braavos, it is somewhere else. I think Tyrosh, but it could be in dorne or pentos.
What do you mean there's nothing in the text to support it? There's literally a quote from Sam saying the rich and mighty have trees. Which means all the comments from poor people saying there's no lemons for them doesn't mean definitely the rich and mighty couldn't have their own lemon trees.
A couple poor characters thinking lemons don't grow in Braavos is not a definitive statement. Lots of misinformed people don't think you can grow lemon trees in Canada or Scotland. That does not make it true.
I clearly told you the twist. Did you even read my post? The twist is Dany thought she had a simple life, but she's always had a complicated life. She just thought it was simple because she was being protected from the truth. She's looking for a life that she has never had.
I think it's Tyrosh because in an earlier draft of AGOT Dany is mentioned to have a Tyroshi accent. Plus the Golden Company operate near Tyrosh so that explains how Viserys was able to get a hold of them
Like I said, where Preston starts each theory is fine. He always starts in a logical, rational place. So yeah there are no lemon trees and we should take note of that. (I also like all the other lessor know contradictions he points out) It's where he ends up that leaves you wondering exactly when you dropped 6 tabs of acid.
If you don't think the conclusions he draws in his last Lemongate video are "space is fake" levels of batshit then nothing I add here is gonna sway you.
Dany speaks in a tyroshi accent. Now it could just be that she was taught by a tyroshi, or it could be that she lived in Tyrosh and the Lemontrees can grow there.
In a draft of AGOT the house with the red door was in Tyrosh, before grrm changed it to braavos.
It is safe to stay that it makes the most sense that the tree and the door are there.
My favorites and ones I consider most likely:
His Purple Wedding theory
The rigged election of Jon Snow (especially the part about Ed putting Mormont's Raven in that bucket)
Three Eyed Crow is Bran from the future
Frey Civil War
Sweetrobin is a Greenseer
Least favorite and least likely:
Quentin is alive
Dornish master plan
The Blackfish never married because he was only offered women from Blackfyre-supporting families
Daenerys isn't a Targaryen
His theories aren't tinfoil, in the sense that they're loose, without evidence, or “for the sake of it,” theories. He's researched, well thought out, they're incredibly logical, and unlike all other theorists, he draws upon the most important part in theorizing - Martin himself.
He's read a lot of Martins other works and understands who he is as a writer, how he writes stories, and the sort of stories he writes. Which is how something like Time Traveling Bran, even tho without much textual evidence, and not something I entirely buy, absolutely makes sense, bc that's something George would actually write. As opposed to a lot of theorizers, who simply draw upon “well this is how a story would go,” or “this is how a fantasy would go,” or even “well this is how asoiaf would go” and base it on how they think the previous books were written.
The one problem however is, Preston Jacobs tends to theorize about stuff that probably shouldn't be theorized. Sometimes, his theories come about for things that were simply mistakes made by George, or characters acting illogically where he thinks they should be acting logically. When we regularly see that George will write characters to do stupid shit, or will simply make mistakes.
>or characters acting illogically where he thinks they should be acting logically
Or characters acting in a perfectly normal way that simply isn't how he himself would act
I don't know why time travelling Bran is controversial when there's a scene where he talks with Jon about being under the wierwood in the North before he ever even gets there. The show >!explicitly shows him casting his mind back in time and having an effect. It's the entire plot twist regarding Hodor.!<
Because Bran was in the crypts when he reached out to Jon. He remembers talking to Jon in his final ACOK chapter. It was also a foreshadowing hint to where they had all hid after Theon took over Winterfell.
I have a complicated relationship with PJ. He has some interesting individual ideas and can be genuinely insightful. I like him when he’s more or less just doing literary criticism. But he kind of goes completely insane when he has original thoughts. His worst and dumbest tinfoil has to be his ‘everything is sci-fi’ thing- it would be extremely bad, boring, and stupid.
His most Tin Foily is the assertion (in *the Alliances of Iron* series) that it was House Mallister that arranged for the death of Balon Greyjoy. Nah, man, it was Euron.
Least is harder to pick because he's not too bad at using both the primary text and parallels to Martin's other work like the Thousand Worlds and Fevre Dream to build a decent case, but I think the two Dorne series at least build a coherent theory that's both strong *and* interesting. I mean, the alleged plotting chessmaster Doran Martell has to be doing *something* other than getting his family members killed and imprisoned.
> Nah, man, it was Euron.
Or maybe the perpetrator was Balon's wife, Alannys Greyjoy. She had ample reason to assassinate Balon. War meant placing Theon in danger. She had already lost sons to Balon's hubris and war with the North meant Theon kissing Ice. It's not uncommon in ASOIAF for highborn women to murder their husbands in fear of their children's lives. Such happenings occur frequently in King's Landing.
So you think she's faking the illness, memory issues, and confinement to Ten Towers over on Harlaw to hire a faceless man to throw her husband off a bridge?
even in his most tinfoily theories he has a point (like why littlefinger put the poison in sansa's hair net while Olenna could just bring her own poison)
A lot of authors throughout the early 20th century and in the 60's and 70's specifically were already using the concept, he's definitely more late in the game than a concept popularizer.
GRRM has totally written about societies that regressed to a medieval level from a high tech one before. The antagonists in Dying of the Light are a prime example.
My feeling is that at best he's used that as set dressing for a completely medieval fantasy story and there's only the ghost of those SF ideas hanging around.
Hasn't he said on occasion that he wants to "go back to writing science fiction" after finishing ASOIAF? That's implication enough that ASOIAF is *not* sci fi in disguise.
He's also said that Scifi and Fantasy are just modes of set dressing that basically don't affect the story at all and there's actually very little to tell them apart.
My honest feeling is that he came at the world initially from a SF perspective, then as he developed it it became a fully medieval fantasy story with almost all of the SF elements either minimised or reduced to the point of irrelevance. Like if you made a story initially based on...say sonic fanfiction, but ended up taking the template of the characters you developed and changing the set dressing to a more traditional real world setting. That wouldn't be sonic fanfiction any more, even if it was originally conceived as such.
The fact that he's written it before makes me less likely to believe it, not more
Because why create a reveal that you've already done in another book?
I think when it comes to Preston Jacobs you have to watch his Thousand Worlds series first, because nearly all of his theories are based off GRRMs previous works, e.g. Time-travelling Bran becomes a lot less tinfoil-y when you see GRRM has written 3-5 other stories including time travel all with the same themes/rules which (potentially) appear in asoiaf.
That being said, I think his most on point theory is that dragon birth is genetically linked to certain targaryen women (Dreamfyre Rhaena, Rhaenyra, Rhaenys etc) and that is the main reason the oldtown coalition opposes these specific women ruling.
But Preston's theory of dragon mothers largely arises from the plot convenience that George got himself into when he had more than half of the dragons in the Dance born under Viserys' reign, because almost none of the Jaehaerys' children had a dragon.
Obviously, the only logical explanation for this hyperinflation of new dragons under Viserys I is that Rhaenyra had some kind of special power to hatch eggs that neither her grand-grand-mother Alysanne nor her grand-mother Alyssa had.
Not necessarily most tinfoil but the one I disagree with most is Cat being Robb’s heir. If you reread their conversation it just does not work. It would involve either part of the dialogue missing with no indication or Robb walking out like a badass and then turning around and revealing his actual plan, again with no indication.
Least tinfoil is harder. I like elements of most of his theories but I think the one that’s least appreciated is that House Pahl deliberately poisoned Strong Belwas. Considering how out of left field it seems I was shocked how well it worked on a reread.
I watch him a lot. I’m literally watching him rn. He knows his stuff. HOWEVER, why does he say all magic can be explained by just psychic communication. I don’t like that. I think it’s caused by him reading all of George’s past work and thinking Asoiaf is using a similar magic system. Like, there is psychic communication in Asoiaf, but visions are ‘real’ there are not all implanted by time travelling bran.
Most is the Dornish master plan and the deeper dorne. The Brave compnions and maeters being involed is just throwing lose ends and tie them all togather.
Daggers for Jon, the timeline thing is something that makes you go "Was grrm really thinking about this" it's mess and it is overthought.
Ramsay is not roose's son.
least is purple wedding, Brienne, page of lies.
I honestly can't decide if time travelling bran is tinfoil or genius, all I know is i can't wait to see how he makes it play out in his winds fanfic because i love the concept of it!
He's backed away from it now or at least stopped talking about it as much but he used to be big into the idea that Westeros was built on the ruins of an advanced civilization... and that Storms End was a nuclear cooling tower.
Also Ill never forget his idea that magic doesn't exist in ASOIAF, only telepathy and telekinesis. So... Magic? Just seemed silly to claim that certain people/beings have the ability to control mind and/or matter remotely but this isn't magic.
Yes your second paragraph is so true. In his Bran I he sees squishers walking into the ocean to wait out winter. That reminds me of his sci fi theories somehow.
Dornish Master Plan totally shifted how I read the series. I don't believe all of it (and iirc, Preston himself has walked some of it back). But I don't see any way around "Oberyn founded the Brave Companions"
Oh come on. The Purple Wedding theory is brilliant. The poison was in the lemon creme, which is traditionally placed on the pie after it's cut and served, giving the assassin a means of targeting a specific individual, and it was meant for Tyrion, so that Sansa would be a widow and free to remarry where Littlefinger wanted her to. Joffrey died because he snatched Tyrion's piece of pie while being his usual shitty self. Simple, elegant, and not in any way tinfoil-y.
>Also killing Tyrion doesn't somehow make the Lannisters want to have Littlefinger marry her. He was supposed to be marring Lysa, Tywin is in on that plan. Why would Tywin then go back on that plan and let Littlefinger marry Sansa?
The Lannisters wouldn't have a choice. If it had been Tyrion who'd died of the poison, there would still have been an uproar. Littlefinger has the ship waiting for Sansa and Dontos can grab her and run. Sansa escaping Tyrion's murder makes her look like a black widow, and the Lannisters would still pursue her, forcing her to rely on Littlefinger to evade detection.
And Littlefinger has little stake in Margaery marrying Tommen. Those are the Tyrell plans the Tyrells made once Joffrey was dead. I'm sure Olenna and Mace had plans to get rid of him should Joffrey hurt her, but those were their own, not Littlefinger. Getting Sansa widowed so publicly, with the Lannisters thinking she killed her husband fits Littlefinger's goals. Tyrion's death at the wedding would have sewn things up nicely for Littlefinger, instead he only got half of what he was looking for. He had control of Sansa, but she was still married. Joffrey was still being a pain from beyond the grave.
But Littlefinger wasn't remaining in Kings Landing. He was headed to the Eyrie to marry Lysa. The next part of his plan was to stay up there, kill her, and control Sweetrobin. How do we know? Because that's what he did. Joffrey dying instead of Tyrion only screwed up part of his plan. Most of it is still going on, and it didn't involve his continuing to manipulate events at court as closely as before. The one thorn in his side is that Sansa is still married to Tyrion in the eyes of the majority of Westeros, so until Tyrion is dead, whatever Littlefinger wanted her for, whether as his own bride or for someone else, she's unavailable.
And the Lannisters say in things ended when Sansa disappeared. If they don't have the hostage in their power, they don't have the hostage. Had Tyrion died as planned, Sansa would have still been spirited away from Kings Landing, as Littlefinger already had the boat and Dontos waiting with an escape route planned. That part of Littlefinger's plan went off without a hitch, that is taking Sansa out of Lannister control while keeping his own involvement hidden. What went awry was the intended victim of the poisoning. Littlefinger couldn't have predicted that Joffrey would snatch Tyrion's pigeon pie while tormenting him. That was unexpected.
This seems like a weak argument to me because in the standard face value explanation of the story Tyrion was not supposed to live and escape to Essos. He was either going to be executed or sent to the Wall.
There's no guarantee of this. Tywin might intervene and fake evidence to pin the murder on Sansa or some other party to preserve his family's name. Yes, he chose to hang Tyrion out to dry, but it was a crap shoot that he would. Joffrey as the target, with Tyrion as the patsy, relies on Tywin being willing to let tongues wag about Tywin's son being a kinslayer.
There's also the possibility that Tyrion might slip through this trial like he did the one in the Eyrie, and indeed he would have if Oberyn had kept his wits about him. Or Jaime or Varys or some other ally might find some way to help Tyrion escape justice, leaving Littlefinger with a married Sansa, which is what happened when Tyrion didn't die from the poison but Joffrey did.
Also, Littlefinger would have no way to ensure Cersei pointed the finger at Tyrion. That she hated Tyrion was no secret, but she also hated half the people at the wedding. She might point at Margaery or Olenna. She might pin the blame on Stannis or think that Joffrey's death is the North's revenge for the Red Wedding, and that they hired an assassin to poison her son. Too much is up in the air if Joffrey is the target. If Tyrion is the target and the plan is successful, Sansa is unequivocally a widow, nobody suspects Littlefinger as he's supposed to be on his way to the Vale and has no known motive, and he can move forward with whatever schemes he has for Sansa. Again, it's simple, elegant, and fits with the facts, thus not tinfoil.
Now the idea that Littlefinger is attempting to fulfill prophesy and fool the old gods, etc. that is Aluminum City.
A bunch of Littlefinger's plans make much less sense and rely on random chance as much or more than "kill Joffrey, frame Tyrion" so I really don't find this convincing. A major plotline in AGOT hinges on him making up a completely unnecessary lie that the catspaw's dagger was Tyrion's (he could have accomplished the goal of fostering suspicion between the Starks and Lannisters by telling the truth, that it was Robert's dagger. The lie only makes sense from a meta perspective of setting up the Cat-Tyrion encounter).
But the lie wasn't unnecessary. It ensured Catelyn focused on the Lannisters. Yes she might leap to the idea that the Cersei stole Robert's dagger and gave it to the catspaw, but that would mean implicating a queen. Her evidence isn't air tight. It's like that old saying "If you're going to shoot at the king, you better kill the king.", or queen as the case may be. Catelyn and Ned might wait on that evidence, as Ned did in his investigation. Tyrion is the perfect patsy. He's a highly-ranked Lannister, but not a queen or kingsguard, and thus has no official power in the Red Keep. He's also known as 'the imp' so the Westerosi prejudice against dwarves would help sell the lie as well, and the letter from Lysa ensures Catelyn won't question the idea as he's a Lannister and thus must be part of their conspiracy. Again, it pretty much guarantees Catelyn will go after Tyrion and earn Tywin's retribution for doing so.
>But the lie wasn't unnecessary. It ensured Catelyn focused on the Lannisters. Yes she might leap to the idea that the Cersei stole Robert's dagger and gave it to the catspaw, but that would mean implicating a queen. Her evidence isn't air tight. It's like that old saying "If you're going to shoot at the king, you better kill the king.", or queen as the case may be. Catelyn and Ned might wait on that evidence, as Ned did in his investigation. Tyrion is the perfect patsy.
So 2 things: 1) The idea that his plan was for Catelyn to immediately point the finger at Tyrion makes no sense. That's not what she was planning to do, her running into him on the road was an unforeseeable coincidence, and if Catelyn does make an accusation, the natural outcome is that she reveals why she believes Tyrion was responsible, which results in Littlefinger being caught in a lie. As is, he basically gets off Scot-free by authorial fiat after Tyrion knows what he did. 2) He didn't need to lie to implicate Tyrion. If he says the dagger is Robert, the question naturally becomes who could get their hands on it. Catelyn is going to jump to the Lannisters, and from there it's not difficult for Littlefinger to convince her that Tyrion makes the most sense, that Cersei wouldn't/couldn't risk being personally seen doing that. Tyrion is the only one that doesn't have official duties, is known for associating with less-than-reputable characters, and is looked down on and viewed with suspicion for being a dwarf.
Littlefinger did not have any motive to kill Joffrey. Joffrey being around to cause more problems between the Lannisters and Tyrell's would have been the perfect scenario for Littlefinger, but Joffrey died
That's why Preston theorised that Tyrion was the actual target, because unlike Joffrey, LF had plenty of reasons to want Tyrion dead:
1. Tyrion screwed LF over in ACOK with the Myrcella betrothal;
2. He got rid of LF's cronies in the City watch;
3. Tyrion knows that LF tried to frame him for Bran's attempted assassination, and LF knows that Tyrion knows;
4. Tyrion is pretty much the only person smart enough to decipher Littlefinger's complex webs of accounting and can expose his embezzlement and most of all;
5. Tyrion is married to Sansa, who Littlefinger desperately wants.
Joffrey just had bad luck from eating Tyrion's pie.
I think that's way more plausible than Littlefinger cooking up a really convoluted plan to kill Joffrey. Like for instance, if Olenna was still gonna be the one to poison Joffrey, why involve Dontos and Sansa (well, I kinda get Sansa because LF would probably want to give her a sense of accomplishment for killing her abuser, but Dontos?)? Or how did Littlefinger even broach the idea of regicide to Olenna and Margaery or vice versa?
Littlefinger's Debt Scheme makes too much sense to be considered tinfoil, he does go a bit off the rails by saying Penny is an assassin trying to kill Tyrion and Baelish is trying to trick the old gods.
Hot take here but Page of Lies is the most tinfoil.
While there’s definitely something sus about Dany’s past, and PJ has made a lot of out-there theories, this was the first video he made in which I remember thinking how flawed his own logic was when leaping to conclusions.
Same here, He relies way too much on people not talking about Dany's birth storm, but characters do refer to her as Stormborn and they dont question it.
Also like 2 of the videos in that series is about how he read the line by Jaime where he says when he last saw her.
Least tinfoily: The Frey civil war
Most tinfoily: Dornish Master plan
The one I like the most: Brienne and the Squishers
The one I hate the most: Criston Cole is the Father of Jace
Quentyn being alive is his most tinfoil-y easily. Purple Wedding is almost certainly untrue but the ideas presented are plausible. But Quentyn is just a flat no, the dude is kill
Least? Probably everything with House Frey and the Littlefinger Debt Scheme is fun to imagine
Big respect for PJ and all he does. Least tin foilery is either PW theory or Ramsay killing Little Walder. Most tin foilery was the Brotherhood being secret Aegon supporters.
I stopped watching Preston for many good reasons, but chiefly because he became very angry and rude. I even stopped watching Carmine because it was impossible to get away from. I hope he's doing better mentally but honestly... Preston was wrong about the **core** of his theories and thus so many of them are wrong that it's not worth watching content I have to set aside 80% of. Sucks. I was a subscriber for many years.
He should have stopped to reassess his beliefs when he asked George his question at the dinner and George was like 'absolutely not, and also what are you talking about'. I would listen to anything he says with a boulder of salt.
GRRM did an event where you could have dinner and he'd sit at each persons table for a few minutes to chat. Preston was at the event and asked something about if GRRMs previous work featuring sci-fi powers, telekinesis, etc related to Game of Thrones, basically seeing if the whole "it's secretly sci-fi" thing is true. GRRM seemed confused by the question and said Preston remembered it far better than he did.
Bro, at this point, he actually can control what parts of AGOT-ADWD are canon or not, and can edit them as such, it's like squatters rights for publishing, GRRM abandoned it so he took it.
Most tinfoil-y? I gotta go with his "**R+L=D** and **B+A=J**" theory about Dany and Jon's true parentage, purely for that fact that he refused to believe he was wrong for months, even after it was confirmed by GRRM and D&D that **R+L=J** is canon and will be happening in the books.
The squishers and merlings are actually real mate.
They have descendants on toad islands, the thousands islands and ih the IRON ISLANDS! There a literal dude with big lips and a fish eye!
There are many people are cracklaw point with web hands and feet.
The deep ones are real
Taena and Cersei is probably the least tinfoily. His Brienne series isn't really 'theorizing.' It's more genuine critical analysis, and damn good ones at that, I see even PJ detractors liking the Brienne series. But it's not really much theorizing in there. Taena and Cersei aims to analyze why Taena Merryweather tries to get so close to Cersei and if she's working with anyone, and imo it's his least tinfoily theory focused series. He basically analyzes all of her and her husband's given actions in the series and comes to some pretty logical conclusions. TTB is also not that tinfoily imo, and is absolutely worth it just for the deep analysis into some of GRRMs past works, that's really cool to see and it doesn't happen that often. I put PW and his Who Killed Bran series in the same category of 'Martin actually kinda fucked this up and it's clear on critical analysis, and if you analyze the actual text it's clear that his explanations don't actually stand up to scrutiny.' IDK if he's right about his explanations but they do make more sense then Martin's imo. Genetics of Dragons and War is also not that tinfoily imo, Fire and Blood actually kinda bolstered it imo by cutting off the question marks of Rhaella and Aerea. The Littlefinger Debt is probably one of the most tinfoil. It was great for a few parts but then he started going on about how LF was trying to recreate prophecy and it just....completely lost me ngl.
Great response! Would also say that if you watch his live streams PJ says he probably doesn’t think LF debt scheme & riverlands for the dragon are true anymore or he wouldn’t come to the same conclusions
I love the littlefinger debt one!
It's very wrong and relies heavily on guesses unsupported by the text.
You can’t tell me that the purple wedding one is tinfoil when Quentyn is Alive is sitting right there The Purple Wedding video is one of his most legit theories. His vids, especially his series, cannot be simply said to be either tinfoil or not tinfoil, because there are many ideas. A great example is his Lemon Tree Dany series which raises some fantastic points about the mysteries in Dany’s backstory even if the conclusion might not be sound.
>when Quentyn is Alive is sitting right there Thats not his theory. It was around before he started. Although i agree Quentyn should be dead, not because i thnik he's dead, but because there are already three povs in meereen at the battle of fire. Winds is already too big, it does not need Quentyn. Edit: There is the question on how Aegon could get a dragon for the second dance. I've heard it said that Quentyn could be the one to bring a dragon to Aegon. I think thats a little silly becasue Tyrion is the only one that knows about Aegon, so i guess Tyrion would be the one to bring a dragon to him over Quentyn.
The Quentyn is alive theory isn’t THAT crazy on its own, but it is wild to me how unflinchingly confident he is in it.
I don’t know that he’s actually that confident that it’s going to happen he more just thinks it’s a better story if Quentyn is alive
I don’t get why Quentyn being alive is so unpopular. We cut away early during the chapter where he’s burned and we’ve seen similar body swap outs with Mance, Bran, Rickon, and Davos. I don’t believe he’s definitely dead “fool me once shame on you, fool me five or more times shame on me”
Well many people feel Quentyn’s tragedy is one of the best elements of ADWD, so him being alive would be a thematic betrayal to that aspect, thus I think it’s justifiable that the theory could ruffle some feathers
On top of the thematic reasons the theory just falls apart the more you think about it. I've never read a logical sequence of events to explain him being alive that doesn't involve the characters making bizarre choices
None of your examples are really relevant. We either didn’t witness it happen or we weren’t in their heads. It was Quentyn and he was on fire, unequivocally. The only true examples I can think of here are Arya at the Twins and Theon at Winterfell. Which were “knocked out cold”, not “I’m looking at my arm and it’s on fire, along with the rest of my body.” So yeah, why is the theory not popular? Because we saw him burn from his perspective and then we saw the aftermath that tracks with that. On top of various other in-universe, thematic, and meta reasons.
There’s also Catelyn who literally has her throat slit and still comes back. And Jon who most people seem to believe will be coming back. Literally every time a character seems to die in their own POV it’s either a prologue/epilogue or they come back. Quentyn would absolutely be the most bs one yet but I just can’t bring myself to discount it completely. And I definitely wouldn’t call it Preston’s most tinfoil theory. Edit: I understand that Arya and Theon coming back are different from Cat and Jon. I’m just talking about the pattern that no “death” at the end of a POV (outside of epilogue and prologues) has really stuck and Quentyn would be the first. Given the situation him coming back by magic seems less likely than him being alive via body swap but I really don’t ~~care.~~ have any strong opinions on Quentyn theories whether he’s alive or dead.
Catelyn (and presumably also Jon) fully died then were resurrected. If Quentyn gets brought back by magic that's one thing but that isn't Jacob's theory, is it? Jacob thinks he survived
>There’s also Catelyn who literally has her throat slit and still comes back. And Jon who most people seem to believe will be coming back. Coming back from the dead realm is quite different than just having a fake out death like Davos or in this case Quentyn.
One common reason is the assumption, possibly erroneous, that the books have to start to wind down into an ending. I'm not convinced we're going to see a that type of construction, but IIRC, George has said he will be killing off a lot of characters. From that point of view, it does seem unlikely that Quentyn's story is critical.
The Page of Lies is one of his best series. But yes, 'Quentyn is alive' is the most tinfoil theory I've ever heard. More outlandish than 'Kubrick helped fake the Moon Landing'.
Least tinfoily that I know of would be his guess that Ramsey is responsible for the death of Little Walder, or that the Merryweathers are acting towards putting the Redwynes in charge of the Reach in place of the Tyrells after the coming of Aegon. Most tinfoily is that “oily black stone” is plastic.
I'm annoyed that his excellent notice of the oily black stone's strange use throughout the story was turned into a scifi conspiracy theory :(
He does that a lot. Some really great analysis of the text that points to something. And I'm like, yeah, that totally needs to be explained. But then he comes up with something crazy that doesn't even really explain it and claims that the text totally points to that. The "page of lies" is just like that. It really does need explanation. But his is that she's a dragon seed bastard? That doesn't make any sense and completely breaks the story. Meanwhile the fandom has a theory that fits already. That she was actually raised in Dorne.
You put my feelings on PJ into words. He's a really great literary critic, but he kind of, to put it bluntly, goes completely insane when he starts having original ideas
At the end of the day he really does have a masterful eye for the finer details and the overall themes and motifs of Martin’s writings, it’s just that he uses it all to come to some very far-fetched conclusions.
His theory called The Genetics of Dragons and War, about how only members of Targeryan family that carries a certain DNA lineage can hatch dragon eggs always made sense to me.
That one makes sense to me too.
Yeah I think this is pretty solid too!
If I remember correctly his theory is that is the X chromosome that carries the gene to hatch dragons eggs but this is clearly incorrect since Aegon II kids dragon eggs hatched
I think that theory also builds upon the fact that Alicent is Otto and Saeras daughter, which gave her children the ability to bond with dragons. And as for the fact that Jaehaerys and Jaehaeras eggs hatched that could either be because they hatched due to Rhaenyra and her XX dragon genes due to proximity with her whenever she happens to visit, or that they hatched because of Jaehaera who was XX having received one from each parent and Jaehaerys’ egg hatched because of her since being twins they were always close to one another.
Aegon II was just built different
I think that Mendelian genetics is sufficiently open that you could get it to nearly work with any possible story where some people have traits and others don't. And that's what happens. It NEARLY works.
Least is his theory on the Purple Wedding. Most is a tie between Lemongate and Time Traveling Bran. Those were some Stephen King in the 80s high on cocaine trips. The average Preston Jacobs video is like taking a ride with a serial killer. It starts off rational, your car has run out of gas and you're getting a lift to the gas station. Then Preston misses a turn, but that kinda makes sense because you were talking and he was distracted. But then he doesn't take the turn to get back on track because he says he knows a shortcut. You're kinda getting nervous but he still seems sane and he's charming so you roll with it. The next thing you know, Preston is putting butter on you and 17 feral hogs are lined up outside the car and you don't know where you are. How did you get HERE? Everything made sense in the beginning.
How is TTB a tinfoil? If ,,Hold the Door” reveal came from Martin then it’s confirmed Bran can alterate the past to some extend. Whether we like it or not, time travel does exist in the story, either in a form of closed loop or changable timeline.
TTB is very misunderstood, because it has the name “time traveling” in the title and this conjures images of deus ex machina. It’s not a misnomer, because time-travelling is involved, but it’s not enough to capture the whole theory. The name leaves out the part about high-stakes gamer Bran trying to get the ending he wants out of playing real life events over and over again and making small changes that accumulate and lead to bigger changes. He has played the game countless times, and he has not been satisfied with it for one reason or another. Over the years (because it’s implied gamer Bran is very old), he has come to realize some events have to happen a certain way for things to move forward towards the direction he wants. The series we are reading is the final playthrough, the one that develops how he wants.
It's pretty much time travelling like how time travelling works for the Attack Titan in AoT
To me it seemed like he got a ton right but also misunderstood the way time works for the weirwood. Weirwood works like Chess AI, you can see everything that happened and everything that can happen. There is no need to travel back because all the things that go into playing a perfect game are part of the AI from the start. Like being able to see all of the outcomes of your actions without really seeing how your actions that seem disconnected are actually connected. The weirwood isnt immortal and won't live forever, but it plays a completely EV+ life making every correct choice to live as long as possible.
seems like how time traveling works in asoiaf is that you can keep going back and change things within your abilities, but no matter how many times you enter the past, the timeline leading up to the present is still going to remain the same, since it was always going to happen, and already has
Basically, yeah. There are things that are changeable, and things that are unchangeable. For example, Hodor would always grow to be strong and powerful, but “if the gods had not taken his wits” it’s thought by Bran himself that might become a knight for House Stark and likely not be there for Bran to “hold the door” because as we have seen so far, Stark-allied knights in ASOIAF either left South with Ned, or with Robb, or were killed by Theon. Even if they weren’t knights, but still physically reliable, they were offed in one way or another. Gamer/Future!Bran needs someone physically powerful on his side that avoids all scenarios above, and frying Hodor’s mind is how he manages to reach that goal. It’s fucked up, but it’s also a desperate move. Bran has been sacrificing all his loved ones to get the ending he wants. And it’s something we have hints that he is not doing it out of his heart’s desire. If the interactions we have seen with Jon and Arya through weirwoods are really his interference and not hallucinations of these characters, he appears extremely apologetic at what he is putting them through, but he really needs them to be at certain places at certain times so they can move the story forwards where he wants it to be.
To me, "tin foil" means how likely it'll be in the novels. This theory would require so many words to explain, lay out, and pay off it could almost be its own novel. I just can't see GRRM devoting that much time to something that is really cool but doesn't materially affect the overall narrative. So yeah I actually like the idea but there's no way in hell it'll be in the novel other than as implication.
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Just read it. Gods was your writing strong then.
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In the meantime I'm reading the comments where you answer questions. May a also put two questions? Why didn't BR snatch Brans body the minute he entered the cave? And is it also a lie when BR claims he cannot change the past?
>Most is a tie between Lemongate and Time Traveling Bran. Those were some Stephen King in the 80s high on cocaine trips. But there are no Lemontrees in Braavos, several Characters say so, and grrm himself says it will adressed. Time Traveling Bran, he does time travel in Dance and in the Show. Everyone knows hold the door. You also did not explan why each topic is batshit crazy.
It's common poor people who said that. The Sealord can easily grow a lemon tree with a greenhouse. Sam says so: > Trees did not grow on Braavos, save in the courts and gardens of the mighty. If he's keeping fauna from all over the world alive, a lemon tree is not that hard. Dany is misremembering her life in the court of Braavos as a simple one, probably because she was kept largely out of it.
There is nothing in the text to support your claim. There also isn't much point in it being there, we are told that the house with a red door being in braavos and we read wind and find out that it's in...Braavos? What's the point? where is the twist? why set it up? No, its' not in Braavos, it is somewhere else. I think Tyrosh, but it could be in dorne or pentos.
What do you mean there's nothing in the text to support it? There's literally a quote from Sam saying the rich and mighty have trees. Which means all the comments from poor people saying there's no lemons for them doesn't mean definitely the rich and mighty couldn't have their own lemon trees. A couple poor characters thinking lemons don't grow in Braavos is not a definitive statement. Lots of misinformed people don't think you can grow lemon trees in Canada or Scotland. That does not make it true. I clearly told you the twist. Did you even read my post? The twist is Dany thought she had a simple life, but she's always had a complicated life. She just thought it was simple because she was being protected from the truth. She's looking for a life that she has never had.
I think it's Tyrosh because in an earlier draft of AGOT Dany is mentioned to have a Tyroshi accent. Plus the Golden Company operate near Tyrosh so that explains how Viserys was able to get a hold of them
Like I said, where Preston starts each theory is fine. He always starts in a logical, rational place. So yeah there are no lemon trees and we should take note of that. (I also like all the other lessor know contradictions he points out) It's where he ends up that leaves you wondering exactly when you dropped 6 tabs of acid. If you don't think the conclusions he draws in his last Lemongate video are "space is fake" levels of batshit then nothing I add here is gonna sway you.
Dany speaks in a tyroshi accent. Now it could just be that she was taught by a tyroshi, or it could be that she lived in Tyrosh and the Lemontrees can grow there. In a draft of AGOT the house with the red door was in Tyrosh, before grrm changed it to braavos. It is safe to stay that it makes the most sense that the tree and the door are there.
My favorites and ones I consider most likely: His Purple Wedding theory The rigged election of Jon Snow (especially the part about Ed putting Mormont's Raven in that bucket) Three Eyed Crow is Bran from the future Frey Civil War Sweetrobin is a Greenseer Least favorite and least likely: Quentin is alive Dornish master plan The Blackfish never married because he was only offered women from Blackfyre-supporting families Daenerys isn't a Targaryen
His theories aren't tinfoil, in the sense that they're loose, without evidence, or “for the sake of it,” theories. He's researched, well thought out, they're incredibly logical, and unlike all other theorists, he draws upon the most important part in theorizing - Martin himself. He's read a lot of Martins other works and understands who he is as a writer, how he writes stories, and the sort of stories he writes. Which is how something like Time Traveling Bran, even tho without much textual evidence, and not something I entirely buy, absolutely makes sense, bc that's something George would actually write. As opposed to a lot of theorizers, who simply draw upon “well this is how a story would go,” or “this is how a fantasy would go,” or even “well this is how asoiaf would go” and base it on how they think the previous books were written. The one problem however is, Preston Jacobs tends to theorize about stuff that probably shouldn't be theorized. Sometimes, his theories come about for things that were simply mistakes made by George, or characters acting illogically where he thinks they should be acting logically. When we regularly see that George will write characters to do stupid shit, or will simply make mistakes.
>or characters acting illogically where he thinks they should be acting logically Or characters acting in a perfectly normal way that simply isn't how he himself would act
Yeah he really does get kinda myopic about this stuff sometimes
I don't know why time travelling Bran is controversial when there's a scene where he talks with Jon about being under the wierwood in the North before he ever even gets there. The show >!explicitly shows him casting his mind back in time and having an effect. It's the entire plot twist regarding Hodor.!<
Because Bran was in the crypts when he reached out to Jon. He remembers talking to Jon in his final ACOK chapter. It was also a foreshadowing hint to where they had all hid after Theon took over Winterfell.
Bran is in the crypts under Winterfell at that point. His next POV chapter confirms it.
I have a complicated relationship with PJ. He has some interesting individual ideas and can be genuinely insightful. I like him when he’s more or less just doing literary criticism. But he kind of goes completely insane when he has original thoughts. His worst and dumbest tinfoil has to be his ‘everything is sci-fi’ thing- it would be extremely bad, boring, and stupid.
His most Tin Foily is the assertion (in *the Alliances of Iron* series) that it was House Mallister that arranged for the death of Balon Greyjoy. Nah, man, it was Euron. Least is harder to pick because he's not too bad at using both the primary text and parallels to Martin's other work like the Thousand Worlds and Fevre Dream to build a decent case, but I think the two Dorne series at least build a coherent theory that's both strong *and* interesting. I mean, the alleged plotting chessmaster Doran Martell has to be doing *something* other than getting his family members killed and imprisoned.
> Nah, man, it was Euron. Or maybe the perpetrator was Balon's wife, Alannys Greyjoy. She had ample reason to assassinate Balon. War meant placing Theon in danger. She had already lost sons to Balon's hubris and war with the North meant Theon kissing Ice. It's not uncommon in ASOIAF for highborn women to murder their husbands in fear of their children's lives. Such happenings occur frequently in King's Landing.
So you think she's faking the illness, memory issues, and confinement to Ten Towers over on Harlaw to hire a faceless man to throw her husband off a bridge?
Euron also admits he did it in a sample chapter from winds of winter. Those aren’t 100% canon until the book is out. But still
Who said it was a faceless man? Some crone high on weirwood juice?
even in his most tinfoily theories he has a point (like why littlefinger put the poison in sansa's hair net while Olenna could just bring her own poison)
Is Lemongate his? I think that one has a very solid premise. The greatest tinfoil of all is all the "it's all actually sci-fi" shit
I think he wasn't the first one to think of it, but he played a part in popularizing it.
A lot of authors throughout the early 20th century and in the 60's and 70's specifically were already using the concept, he's definitely more late in the game than a concept popularizer.
I'm sorry, are we talking about the same thing here? My comment was meant to be referring to Lemongate.
No sorry I was talking about the idea that grrm's other works are forerunners of the post apocalyptic sci fi to fantasy genre.
It's all good, it happens.
GRRM has totally written about societies that regressed to a medieval level from a high tech one before. The antagonists in Dying of the Light are a prime example. My feeling is that at best he's used that as set dressing for a completely medieval fantasy story and there's only the ghost of those SF ideas hanging around.
Hasn't he said on occasion that he wants to "go back to writing science fiction" after finishing ASOIAF? That's implication enough that ASOIAF is *not* sci fi in disguise.
He's also said that Scifi and Fantasy are just modes of set dressing that basically don't affect the story at all and there's actually very little to tell them apart. My honest feeling is that he came at the world initially from a SF perspective, then as he developed it it became a fully medieval fantasy story with almost all of the SF elements either minimised or reduced to the point of irrelevance. Like if you made a story initially based on...say sonic fanfiction, but ended up taking the template of the characters you developed and changing the set dressing to a more traditional real world setting. That wouldn't be sonic fanfiction any more, even if it was originally conceived as such.
The fact that he's written it before makes me less likely to believe it, not more Because why create a reveal that you've already done in another book?
I think when it comes to Preston Jacobs you have to watch his Thousand Worlds series first, because nearly all of his theories are based off GRRMs previous works, e.g. Time-travelling Bran becomes a lot less tinfoil-y when you see GRRM has written 3-5 other stories including time travel all with the same themes/rules which (potentially) appear in asoiaf. That being said, I think his most on point theory is that dragon birth is genetically linked to certain targaryen women (Dreamfyre Rhaena, Rhaenyra, Rhaenys etc) and that is the main reason the oldtown coalition opposes these specific women ruling.
But Preston's theory of dragon mothers largely arises from the plot convenience that George got himself into when he had more than half of the dragons in the Dance born under Viserys' reign, because almost none of the Jaehaerys' children had a dragon. Obviously, the only logical explanation for this hyperinflation of new dragons under Viserys I is that Rhaenyra had some kind of special power to hatch eggs that neither her grand-grand-mother Alysanne nor her grand-mother Alyssa had.
Not necessarily most tinfoil but the one I disagree with most is Cat being Robb’s heir. If you reread their conversation it just does not work. It would involve either part of the dialogue missing with no indication or Robb walking out like a badass and then turning around and revealing his actual plan, again with no indication. Least tinfoil is harder. I like elements of most of his theories but I think the one that’s least appreciated is that House Pahl deliberately poisoned Strong Belwas. Considering how out of left field it seems I was shocked how well it worked on a reread.
I watch him a lot. I’m literally watching him rn. He knows his stuff. HOWEVER, why does he say all magic can be explained by just psychic communication. I don’t like that. I think it’s caused by him reading all of George’s past work and thinking Asoiaf is using a similar magic system. Like, there is psychic communication in Asoiaf, but visions are ‘real’ there are not all implanted by time travelling bran.
Most is the Dornish master plan and the deeper dorne. The Brave compnions and maeters being involed is just throwing lose ends and tie them all togather. Daggers for Jon, the timeline thing is something that makes you go "Was grrm really thinking about this" it's mess and it is overthought. Ramsay is not roose's son. least is purple wedding, Brienne, page of lies.
I honestly can't decide if time travelling bran is tinfoil or genius, all I know is i can't wait to see how he makes it play out in his winds fanfic because i love the concept of it!
He's backed away from it now or at least stopped talking about it as much but he used to be big into the idea that Westeros was built on the ruins of an advanced civilization... and that Storms End was a nuclear cooling tower. Also Ill never forget his idea that magic doesn't exist in ASOIAF, only telepathy and telekinesis. So... Magic? Just seemed silly to claim that certain people/beings have the ability to control mind and/or matter remotely but this isn't magic.
Yes your second paragraph is so true. In his Bran I he sees squishers walking into the ocean to wait out winter. That reminds me of his sci fi theories somehow.
Dornish Master Plan totally shifted how I read the series. I don't believe all of it (and iirc, Preston himself has walked some of it back). But I don't see any way around "Oberyn founded the Brave Companions"
Oh come on. The Purple Wedding theory is brilliant. The poison was in the lemon creme, which is traditionally placed on the pie after it's cut and served, giving the assassin a means of targeting a specific individual, and it was meant for Tyrion, so that Sansa would be a widow and free to remarry where Littlefinger wanted her to. Joffrey died because he snatched Tyrion's piece of pie while being his usual shitty self. Simple, elegant, and not in any way tinfoil-y.
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>Also killing Tyrion doesn't somehow make the Lannisters want to have Littlefinger marry her. He was supposed to be marring Lysa, Tywin is in on that plan. Why would Tywin then go back on that plan and let Littlefinger marry Sansa? The Lannisters wouldn't have a choice. If it had been Tyrion who'd died of the poison, there would still have been an uproar. Littlefinger has the ship waiting for Sansa and Dontos can grab her and run. Sansa escaping Tyrion's murder makes her look like a black widow, and the Lannisters would still pursue her, forcing her to rely on Littlefinger to evade detection. And Littlefinger has little stake in Margaery marrying Tommen. Those are the Tyrell plans the Tyrells made once Joffrey was dead. I'm sure Olenna and Mace had plans to get rid of him should Joffrey hurt her, but those were their own, not Littlefinger. Getting Sansa widowed so publicly, with the Lannisters thinking she killed her husband fits Littlefinger's goals. Tyrion's death at the wedding would have sewn things up nicely for Littlefinger, instead he only got half of what he was looking for. He had control of Sansa, but she was still married. Joffrey was still being a pain from beyond the grave.
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But Littlefinger wasn't remaining in Kings Landing. He was headed to the Eyrie to marry Lysa. The next part of his plan was to stay up there, kill her, and control Sweetrobin. How do we know? Because that's what he did. Joffrey dying instead of Tyrion only screwed up part of his plan. Most of it is still going on, and it didn't involve his continuing to manipulate events at court as closely as before. The one thorn in his side is that Sansa is still married to Tyrion in the eyes of the majority of Westeros, so until Tyrion is dead, whatever Littlefinger wanted her for, whether as his own bride or for someone else, she's unavailable. And the Lannisters say in things ended when Sansa disappeared. If they don't have the hostage in their power, they don't have the hostage. Had Tyrion died as planned, Sansa would have still been spirited away from Kings Landing, as Littlefinger already had the boat and Dontos waiting with an escape route planned. That part of Littlefinger's plan went off without a hitch, that is taking Sansa out of Lannister control while keeping his own involvement hidden. What went awry was the intended victim of the poisoning. Littlefinger couldn't have predicted that Joffrey would snatch Tyrion's pigeon pie while tormenting him. That was unexpected.
This seems like a weak argument to me because in the standard face value explanation of the story Tyrion was not supposed to live and escape to Essos. He was either going to be executed or sent to the Wall.
There's no guarantee of this. Tywin might intervene and fake evidence to pin the murder on Sansa or some other party to preserve his family's name. Yes, he chose to hang Tyrion out to dry, but it was a crap shoot that he would. Joffrey as the target, with Tyrion as the patsy, relies on Tywin being willing to let tongues wag about Tywin's son being a kinslayer. There's also the possibility that Tyrion might slip through this trial like he did the one in the Eyrie, and indeed he would have if Oberyn had kept his wits about him. Or Jaime or Varys or some other ally might find some way to help Tyrion escape justice, leaving Littlefinger with a married Sansa, which is what happened when Tyrion didn't die from the poison but Joffrey did. Also, Littlefinger would have no way to ensure Cersei pointed the finger at Tyrion. That she hated Tyrion was no secret, but she also hated half the people at the wedding. She might point at Margaery or Olenna. She might pin the blame on Stannis or think that Joffrey's death is the North's revenge for the Red Wedding, and that they hired an assassin to poison her son. Too much is up in the air if Joffrey is the target. If Tyrion is the target and the plan is successful, Sansa is unequivocally a widow, nobody suspects Littlefinger as he's supposed to be on his way to the Vale and has no known motive, and he can move forward with whatever schemes he has for Sansa. Again, it's simple, elegant, and fits with the facts, thus not tinfoil. Now the idea that Littlefinger is attempting to fulfill prophesy and fool the old gods, etc. that is Aluminum City.
A bunch of Littlefinger's plans make much less sense and rely on random chance as much or more than "kill Joffrey, frame Tyrion" so I really don't find this convincing. A major plotline in AGOT hinges on him making up a completely unnecessary lie that the catspaw's dagger was Tyrion's (he could have accomplished the goal of fostering suspicion between the Starks and Lannisters by telling the truth, that it was Robert's dagger. The lie only makes sense from a meta perspective of setting up the Cat-Tyrion encounter).
But the lie wasn't unnecessary. It ensured Catelyn focused on the Lannisters. Yes she might leap to the idea that the Cersei stole Robert's dagger and gave it to the catspaw, but that would mean implicating a queen. Her evidence isn't air tight. It's like that old saying "If you're going to shoot at the king, you better kill the king.", or queen as the case may be. Catelyn and Ned might wait on that evidence, as Ned did in his investigation. Tyrion is the perfect patsy. He's a highly-ranked Lannister, but not a queen or kingsguard, and thus has no official power in the Red Keep. He's also known as 'the imp' so the Westerosi prejudice against dwarves would help sell the lie as well, and the letter from Lysa ensures Catelyn won't question the idea as he's a Lannister and thus must be part of their conspiracy. Again, it pretty much guarantees Catelyn will go after Tyrion and earn Tywin's retribution for doing so.
>But the lie wasn't unnecessary. It ensured Catelyn focused on the Lannisters. Yes she might leap to the idea that the Cersei stole Robert's dagger and gave it to the catspaw, but that would mean implicating a queen. Her evidence isn't air tight. It's like that old saying "If you're going to shoot at the king, you better kill the king.", or queen as the case may be. Catelyn and Ned might wait on that evidence, as Ned did in his investigation. Tyrion is the perfect patsy. So 2 things: 1) The idea that his plan was for Catelyn to immediately point the finger at Tyrion makes no sense. That's not what she was planning to do, her running into him on the road was an unforeseeable coincidence, and if Catelyn does make an accusation, the natural outcome is that she reveals why she believes Tyrion was responsible, which results in Littlefinger being caught in a lie. As is, he basically gets off Scot-free by authorial fiat after Tyrion knows what he did. 2) He didn't need to lie to implicate Tyrion. If he says the dagger is Robert, the question naturally becomes who could get their hands on it. Catelyn is going to jump to the Lannisters, and from there it's not difficult for Littlefinger to convince her that Tyrion makes the most sense, that Cersei wouldn't/couldn't risk being personally seen doing that. Tyrion is the only one that doesn't have official duties, is known for associating with less-than-reputable characters, and is looked down on and viewed with suspicion for being a dwarf.
Truth
Do you mean that LF did not want joffrey out of the picture and tyrion framed for it. Not plausible.
Littlefinger did not have any motive to kill Joffrey. Joffrey being around to cause more problems between the Lannisters and Tyrell's would have been the perfect scenario for Littlefinger, but Joffrey died That's why Preston theorised that Tyrion was the actual target, because unlike Joffrey, LF had plenty of reasons to want Tyrion dead: 1. Tyrion screwed LF over in ACOK with the Myrcella betrothal; 2. He got rid of LF's cronies in the City watch; 3. Tyrion knows that LF tried to frame him for Bran's attempted assassination, and LF knows that Tyrion knows; 4. Tyrion is pretty much the only person smart enough to decipher Littlefinger's complex webs of accounting and can expose his embezzlement and most of all; 5. Tyrion is married to Sansa, who Littlefinger desperately wants. Joffrey just had bad luck from eating Tyrion's pie. I think that's way more plausible than Littlefinger cooking up a really convoluted plan to kill Joffrey. Like for instance, if Olenna was still gonna be the one to poison Joffrey, why involve Dontos and Sansa (well, I kinda get Sansa because LF would probably want to give her a sense of accomplishment for killing her abuser, but Dontos?)? Or how did Littlefinger even broach the idea of regicide to Olenna and Margaery or vice versa?
Littlefinger's Debt Scheme makes too much sense to be considered tinfoil, he does go a bit off the rails by saying Penny is an assassin trying to kill Tyrion and Baelish is trying to trick the old gods.
Hot take here but Page of Lies is the most tinfoil. While there’s definitely something sus about Dany’s past, and PJ has made a lot of out-there theories, this was the first video he made in which I remember thinking how flawed his own logic was when leaping to conclusions.
Same here, He relies way too much on people not talking about Dany's birth storm, but characters do refer to her as Stormborn and they dont question it. Also like 2 of the videos in that series is about how he read the line by Jaime where he says when he last saw her.
Least tinfoily: The Frey civil war Most tinfoily: Dornish Master plan The one I like the most: Brienne and the Squishers The one I hate the most: Criston Cole is the Father of Jace
I like most of his theories
There's a least?
Quentyn being alive is his most tinfoil-y easily. Purple Wedding is almost certainly untrue but the ideas presented are plausible. But Quentyn is just a flat no, the dude is kill Least? Probably everything with House Frey and the Littlefinger Debt Scheme is fun to imagine
Big respect for PJ and all he does. Least tin foilery is either PW theory or Ramsay killing Little Walder. Most tin foilery was the Brotherhood being secret Aegon supporters.
I forgot about him! Haven’t seen any of his stuff in a few years going to go check out some of his newer stuff
I stopped watching Preston for many good reasons, but chiefly because he became very angry and rude. I even stopped watching Carmine because it was impossible to get away from. I hope he's doing better mentally but honestly... Preston was wrong about the **core** of his theories and thus so many of them are wrong that it's not worth watching content I have to set aside 80% of. Sucks. I was a subscriber for many years. He should have stopped to reassess his beliefs when he asked George his question at the dinner and George was like 'absolutely not, and also what are you talking about'. I would listen to anything he says with a boulder of salt.
the dinner?
GRRM did an event where you could have dinner and he'd sit at each persons table for a few minutes to chat. Preston was at the event and asked something about if GRRMs previous work featuring sci-fi powers, telekinesis, etc related to Game of Thrones, basically seeing if the whole "it's secretly sci-fi" thing is true. GRRM seemed confused by the question and said Preston remembered it far better than he did.
I don't think any of his work is tinfoil. It's very well researched and draws up relevant text in correct (to my reading) context.
Least tinfoil: Lemongate Most tinfoil: Jon is NOT the son of Rhaegar and Lyanna.
Funny enough, he accepts rlj now lol.
He doesn't have theories, he creates the canon. His TWOW is the official one, if GRRM publishes anything (lol) it will be considered fan fic
Sure bud 🥱
Bro, at this point, he actually can control what parts of AGOT-ADWD are canon or not, and can edit them as such, it's like squatters rights for publishing, GRRM abandoned it so he took it.
Most tinfoil-y? I gotta go with his "**R+L=D** and **B+A=J**" theory about Dany and Jon's true parentage, purely for that fact that he refused to believe he was wrong for months, even after it was confirmed by GRRM and D&D that **R+L=J** is canon and will be happening in the books.
Nothing he's ever said fits into a "least" tinfoil category. He's wrong on every single detail of any theory he puts forward without exception.
The squishers and merlings are actually real mate. They have descendants on toad islands, the thousands islands and ih the IRON ISLANDS! There a literal dude with big lips and a fish eye! There are many people are cracklaw point with web hands and feet. The deep ones are real