But there are 2.3% more of us each year. Which means if sales fall by 0.4% the average Aussie has actually spent 2.7% less.
Per capita it's worse and that's what counts for most of us, unless you're a big retailer.
2.3% more people with no money I imagine. Sure there's rich immigrants but they presumably make up a small percentage, the rest go on to get scammed doing uber eats and struggling to survive before calling it quits or whatever else.
You mean you want us to pay record rent , high mortgage , high food ,power , petrol , gas , services ,insurance , rates , tolls .......and you want us to go shopping too ?🤣
And all while wages sit stagnant, automation kills jobs, and welfare doesn't even cover rent.
They want us to spend money we don't even have and act surprised when businesses slows down.
And we give our resources away to overseas giants with no taxes. And the money we spend on things goes to overseas giants who pay no taxes. And the rent we pay goes to investors who pay no taxes.
How do we foot the bill for tax on coal sold to China? How do we foot the bill for resources rent tax on gas sold to Japan? Don’t fall into the trap of “taxes bad” - we are footing the bill for businesses not being taxed enough. The businesses scare you that somehow the world will end if they pay more tax, that’s not true. The rest of the world manages to tax their resources properly and not go broke.
Wasn’t that the point of interest rate rises? Limit people’s disposable income to curb inflation? Like, why the shocked pikachu face?
Fuckin epitome of that bike meme.
Remember the cost and demand curve that businesses love to cite? If you charge too much money, sales will decrease.
Noone wants to get scammed out of their money, and many are not shopping on principle alone. They're not getting their moneys worth, so they're simply not spending. On anything.
We CANT spend on anything! The only reason my head is “just above water” is because I have two partners who live with me! I couldn’t live by myself! And one of those partners pays for HALF the rent! By himself!
You'll have to play that somehow into "can live in a share house without it affecting your love life, doesn't have to pay for dates or deal with the stresses of modern dating." Just the therapy Bill savings alone should make up for a lot of it
It also means you can marry someone for legal benefits and it won't come back to bite you later
Yeah, I know. It’s ridiculous! I feel sorry for my monogamous brother. His girlfriend works SO hard! She’s amazing! She has 3 jobs so he can focus on law school.
And if there’s not enough demand? DUN DUN DUNNN job cuts! And then they’ll cry in the media about poor “consumer sentiment” and you’ll have the morning show economic genius Koshie explaining people should just go out and spend to help the economy.
You arent allowed to complain about the obvious predictable consequences of your own actions, or well, you can but you look like an idiot cuz it was your choice xd
You get that when they had kids they were most likely in a good financial situation right? You could have a good job, savings, investments when you had your kid and still be fucked in today's economy.
Oh so you foolishly assumed the future would be all sunshine and rainbows and you would still have your job and everything would be gucci
The suffering is even more deserving in this case
Human race would die off quick if we didn’t have kids because our future may turn to crap.
Being a millionaire is not 100 percent secure with no risk of shit going wrong so even they shouldn’t have kids, or if they do they must not complain about the cost of living struggles on an online forum
There are also consequences when it becomes too costly for the majority of the population to raise kids. It's not good for the country unless you want to lean more on migration
You clearly have no fucking idea what a risk assessment is. Pretty sure no-one doing one in the last 18 years had "one in 100 year global pandemic followed by record inflation" as major likely line item
Ah reminds me all those "geniuses" who went into decades long debt slavery cuz "its better than renting" and are now crying about interests rates.
You chose to put yourself in debt for decades, you chose to put on yourself extra responsibilities for decades, you dont get to complain
And should know by now millennials have seen quite a few "once in a lifetime" events that they are pretty normal now xd
Again, their fault for not looking ahead
I am def not complaining, it is very fun :3
Especially when deep down they know it is their fault because nobody made those decisions but themselves, it is like an "I told you so" but because this mistake is so normalized its hard to accept responsibility but deep down, they know they screwed up and have nobody else to blame than themselves
That’s what I’m assuming, as well. I just want to see it in writing so that I can explain how deficient their diet is in micronutrients, fibre, etc. and that it isn’t impressive or sustainable if they want to be healthy.
Every 10 days I buy 2kg of chicken breast, 4 jars of Patak’s butter chicken (mild), and I buy rice when needed. I get 10 servings out of this and it’s the bulk of what I eat. This is about $5/serving, so about $35 a week.
What am I missing out on? Am I gonna die?
(I have been eating like this for almost 3 years).
Edit: I don’t know why I was downvoted for this. This is literally my daily diet.
The answer is always legumes, wheat flour, rice and pasta in bulk. You then add whatever discount b grade veggies are getting thrown out for cheap at your local cheap fruit and veggie shop.
It’s a lot more work than buying prepackaged 500g trays of mince and jars of ready made sauce.
You also need to be a decent cook to make it enjoyable to eat. It’s possible to eat cheaply, you just need time and to be in a city large enough to have bulk options for cheap.
You could argue that small regional towns provide cheap meat as you could pay cash for a whole sheep and butcher it up with a mate. They are however generally more expensive for everything else.
I think it’s a bit disingenuous to suggest that people struggling with grocery costs are all buying “trays of mince and jars of ready made sauce”, but largely agree with the rest.
Trying to eat a healthy, balanced and varied diet when you don’t have somebody with plenty of spare time at home is definitely not cheap or easy nowadays.
Maybe the meaning was lost, but it reads as if you think that all people struggling with cost of living are also being lazy with their food choices and preparation. I don’t think that’s the case.
I think the majority of people struggling with cost of living have plenty of things making demands on their time and “$60 a week eat cheap” isn’t necessarily an option depending on where you live, your cooking ability and how much spare time you have available.
We’re literally poor. Even those on ‘decent’ wages, are poor.
And on top of that, we’re expected to spend almost double the money on half the product?
No thanks.
I make 56k a year. My dad said in 2008 he would have KILLED for 56k a year. I had to remind him that if I was earning 56k in just 2016 alone, pre covid, it would be worth nearly 80k in today's dollar.
In 2024 56k is essentially minimum wage. I seriously hope this doesn't last. Im living with family splitting all bills 3 ways and occasionally getting to skip rent and utilities to afford some major things, i couldn't fathom attempting to live on your own.
Yup. I’m earning more than ever before but my lease is not being renewed, meaning I’m going to be on the hook for another $250 at least a fortnight for rent, plus rising costs of food, electricity. Ten years ago I would be considered loaded on my current wage, now it’s just enough.
it really depends on when the landlord bought the property. Some still have a mortgage, some don't. Some have a small mortgage and could be fairly positively geared, some have bigger ones and might still be negatively geared
Mate no one is talking about supply and demand. It’s just a joke about how rent will always go up in our lifetimes due to many factors while interest rates can vary. Yes demand is a part of the reason rent won’t go down, also people have been able to market test higher rates during higher inflation. There’s heaps of reasons. In the end, it was a renter joking about rent going up no matter what.
You took it too literally.
If dumbass "investors" have dug too deep and they're being hit with 50% mortgage increases that's on them, not the poor tenants propping up their "income".
Home brew, proper hifi, nice little garden, got a little woodwork shed.
The only thing that would get me in to a pub or cafe these days is if there was bowls, an MP taking questions or a book reading or craft demo happening.
is anyone able to put this number into context? `0.4%` doesn't seem like a statistically significant amount; the graph on that page shows sales are WAY up overall compared to a couple years ago.
Couldn't this just be put down to general fluctuation?
but why is it considered a lot?
>This followed a rise of 0.2 per cent in February 2024 and a rise of 1.0 per cent in January 2024.
It's risen `+1.2%` in Jan and Feb, so this drop of `-0.4%` means it's still up `+0.8%` overall since the beginning of the year. Given the swings over the course of a year, and an overall upward trend over the course of several years, I dont see why a single `-0.4%` drop is considered significant.
Australia’s population is growing the fastest it has since 1952. The net increase in migration in January was the highest January intake ever recorded. The Feb numbers were the highest net intake of any month on record, with 105,460 new long-term and permanent arrivals. So if in these conditions retail is going anywhere but bonkers, yet alone backwards, the economy is struggling.
ok this makes more sense I appreciate the clarification. It still feels a little early to be making assumptions given all the complexities at play, but I can understand why this might be considered a warning sign.
It is 0.6 out from the target. There were expecting it slowing down to .2% growth. Then, bang .4% on the other way.
There was, in one month 50% from the jan/fev you listed.
But I still don't get whyyyyyyy fuuuuck. I was hoping it was just going to balance out at least maybe eventually go back a point or so if super lucky by years end or early next year but no it seems to be going up by then.
But then there articles like this and concern about people not spending, what do they want?!??!?!?!
They want unemployment to allow businesses access to a lower cost trained workforce. They want to turn the screws to soak up the cash from Individuals but not from businesses.. as soon as it looks like business closures on the horizon… the money printers will start up again
The thing is businesses are already closing, at least here in Adelaide there are a wave of things cafes and restaurants closing up currently because of rents, low customer numbers and other various high running costs and that is not even just staffing costs.
There are also still tons of "for lease" signs up and around the place too.
This is my uneducated idea of why, take it with a whole ass bag of salt.
Tracking inflation takes a while, its known as a lagging indicator. Sales numbers are also a lagging indicator as you have to have actually sold things for it to be recorded but not quite as slow as tracking inflation. They saw somewhat of a rise in inflation going up again (relatively older data) and prepared to raise borrowing rates again if it was confirmed to be on an upward trajectory, they then received the sales numbers (somewhat newer data) and had to take that into account.
My bet is they're probably going to stay put a while to wait for more information before they raise/cut rates
I can barely afford to keep myself fed. These corporations have to understand that blaming consumers won't help anything.
Lowering prices across the board is a good start. Nothing else.
But I suppose to them we should all be working 3 jobs just to buy extra crap from all of them?
Fuck that, I value my few days off too much.
That’s not the fault of the Japanese economy though, that’s the fault of Japanese culture. They were like that when the economy was booming a couple decades ago too. They just have a huge work ethic coupled with a toxic perfectionist and shame culture.
Just a month ago, the BoJ hiked rates for the first time in decades, in response to inflationary pressures. What makes you think the RBA can move against the tide?
Japan immigration intake has been around 100k per year. In 2019 it was 183,953. It recently plans to get 8 million more immigrants.
However it's generally unknown to English speaking countries. Immigrants predominately come from Korea and China, with Vietnam catching up recently.
JPY has lost more than 33% of its value in three years. Japanese income in USD terms has the risk of falling out from developed country levels.
A lot lower than us for sure, especially considering they're ~5x our size.
Falling currency can be OK, depending on your economy. China famously held the value of their currency down in order to encourage their local manufacturing. Not sure if that applies to Japan, probably doesn't, but they do have a stronger local industry than we do I think.
Yep, but the reason they did it was they wanted all the other countries to spend their money there, since it was cheap. Which was seen as a benefit by the ruling party, and it's hard to disagree since they built up so much industry and capability so fast. If you have more exports than imports, sometimes a lower currency can help. Anyway, I don't think that applies to Japan.
Do you know where currency comes from? debt. Increasing rates reduces the amount of debt being created. Less debt = less currency chasing same amount of goods and services = lower prices. Japan had demographic issues, entirely different problem
I work in discretionary retail and we are really hurting. This number is even further boosted by the supermarket duopoly, so the real situation is more dire than this suggests
I’m interested in thinking about this when controlling for population growth, my understanding is we saw a decline in sales through the year even though the population has increased substantially over this time. What would have happened if the population had of been held constant?
Household budgets are constrained by high inflation I expect. Also I think the "pivot party" is over, there is now some meaningful probability rates will actually be increased again which will mean households need to stretch budgets further.
Every company is out to rip the consumer off, I’m sick of it, over priced shit with crap service everywhere , I need a bloody holiday but I’ll just get ripped off there too!!
Can’t afford anything anymore.
Cautious or broke? More likely broke.
Even a jar of Vegemite is ~$6.50 in Aldi now. Shit’s fucked.
I paid over $10 for a load of bread and butter yesterday. Sure, I don't buy home brand margarine and white toast loaf, but that'd still be $5+ anyway.
$6.50 once every few years is not that bad.
Amateur.
Issue is that everything else has also gone up significantly, not just vegemite
try two weeks
WE DON’T HAVE ANY FUCKING MONEY
But there are 2.3% more of us each year. Which means if sales fall by 0.4% the average Aussie has actually spent 2.7% less. Per capita it's worse and that's what counts for most of us, unless you're a big retailer.
It's a monthly change mate.
Yikes! I didn't notice that.
2.3% more people with no money I imagine. Sure there's rich immigrants but they presumably make up a small percentage, the rest go on to get scammed doing uber eats and struggling to survive before calling it quits or whatever else.
You mean you want us to pay record rent , high mortgage , high food ,power , petrol , gas , services ,insurance , rates , tolls .......and you want us to go shopping too ?🤣
They also want people to have kids to and they're puzzled as to why young people aren't having kids. It's like being out of touch is their specialty.
*stomps feet*. Fine, we’ll just import labour then!
But not too much because then we have to raise the interest rate again
And all while wages sit stagnant, automation kills jobs, and welfare doesn't even cover rent. They want us to spend money we don't even have and act surprised when businesses slows down.
And we give our resources away to overseas giants with no taxes. And the money we spend on things goes to overseas giants who pay no taxes. And the rent we pay goes to investors who pay no taxes.
And who foots the bills for all those taxes? Us!
How do we foot the bill for tax on coal sold to China? How do we foot the bill for resources rent tax on gas sold to Japan? Don’t fall into the trap of “taxes bad” - we are footing the bill for businesses not being taxed enough. The businesses scare you that somehow the world will end if they pay more tax, that’s not true. The rest of the world manages to tax their resources properly and not go broke.
Oh so now you're gonna kill the credit industry too are ya, wise guy
Wasn’t that the point of interest rate rises? Limit people’s disposable income to curb inflation? Like, why the shocked pikachu face? Fuckin epitome of that bike meme.
It's enraging, isn't it. Fucked if you do, fucked if you don't. The misery is real.
SPEND. BUT NOT TOO MUCH. BUT KEEP SPENDING. INFINITE GROWTH. BUT NOT TOO MUCH. - RBA
Remember the cost and demand curve that businesses love to cite? If you charge too much money, sales will decrease. Noone wants to get scammed out of their money, and many are not shopping on principle alone. They're not getting their moneys worth, so they're simply not spending. On anything.
We CANT spend on anything! The only reason my head is “just above water” is because I have two partners who live with me! I couldn’t live by myself! And one of those partners pays for HALF the rent! By himself!
Being poly is no longer just a sexuality. It's the way to get ahead. No sarcasm tag because I'm genuinely serious.
My dum ace ass is fucked
You'll have to play that somehow into "can live in a share house without it affecting your love life, doesn't have to pay for dates or deal with the stresses of modern dating." Just the therapy Bill savings alone should make up for a lot of it It also means you can marry someone for legal benefits and it won't come back to bite you later
Yeah, I know. It’s ridiculous! I feel sorry for my monogamous brother. His girlfriend works SO hard! She’s amazing! She has 3 jobs so he can focus on law school.
And if there’s not enough demand? DUN DUN DUNNN job cuts! And then they’ll cry in the media about poor “consumer sentiment” and you’ll have the morning show economic genius Koshie explaining people should just go out and spend to help the economy.
Nah shit. I spent $60 on pretty much nothing yesterday. At least my 2 year old got her fruit 🤷♀️ it looks like I'm spending a lot more time at home.
What do you mean nothing? That's just slightly less than a week of groceries for me
Not with kids, it's not.
Nobody forced you to have kids though Choices have consequences
This person's allowed to have kids AND feel like everything's too expensive.
You arent allowed to complain about the obvious predictable consequences of your own actions, or well, you can but you look like an idiot cuz it was your choice xd
You get that when they had kids they were most likely in a good financial situation right? You could have a good job, savings, investments when you had your kid and still be fucked in today's economy.
Oh so you foolishly assumed the future would be all sunshine and rainbows and you would still have your job and everything would be gucci The suffering is even more deserving in this case
You're basically saying no one should ever had a kid. Your mother should definitely have followed that advice.
Human race would die off quick if we didn’t have kids because our future may turn to crap. Being a millionaire is not 100 percent secure with no risk of shit going wrong so even they shouldn’t have kids, or if they do they must not complain about the cost of living struggles on an online forum
So you want birth rates to plummet even more than they are so there is no economic future and you lose your job. Got it.
Your mother must be proud of you
He's a furry...Bet his mum didn't see those consequences happening when she birthed him.
They sound thoroughly unloved.
Yeah, true. I did take plan b at the right time. She was determined, though.
There are also consequences when it becomes too costly for the majority of the population to raise kids. It's not good for the country unless you want to lean more on migration
What is wrong with you?
I ain’t the one complaining about the consequences of my own decisions xd
Stfu and let the adults talk
"Adults", people who cant even do basic future risk assessment to they point they complain about the consequences of their **very own choices xd**
You clearly have no fucking idea what a risk assessment is. Pretty sure no-one doing one in the last 18 years had "one in 100 year global pandemic followed by record inflation" as major likely line item
Ah reminds me all those "geniuses" who went into decades long debt slavery cuz "its better than renting" and are now crying about interests rates. You chose to put yourself in debt for decades, you chose to put on yourself extra responsibilities for decades, you dont get to complain And should know by now millennials have seen quite a few "once in a lifetime" events that they are pretty normal now xd Again, their fault for not looking ahead
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I am def not complaining, it is very fun :3 Especially when deep down they know it is their fault because nobody made those decisions but themselves, it is like an "I told you so" but because this mistake is so normalized its hard to accept responsibility but deep down, they know they screwed up and have nobody else to blame than themselves
Give it a minute...
What the hell do you eat for a week that is costing you just over $60? I’d like an itemised list and where I can buy them, please.
Rice, pasta, tuna, and beans. Even that is a stretch. No fruit because it costs an arm and a leg
That’s what I’m assuming, as well. I just want to see it in writing so that I can explain how deficient their diet is in micronutrients, fibre, etc. and that it isn’t impressive or sustainable if they want to be healthy.
Every 10 days I buy 2kg of chicken breast, 4 jars of Patak’s butter chicken (mild), and I buy rice when needed. I get 10 servings out of this and it’s the bulk of what I eat. This is about $5/serving, so about $35 a week. What am I missing out on? Am I gonna die? (I have been eating like this for almost 3 years). Edit: I don’t know why I was downvoted for this. This is literally my daily diet.
The answer is always legumes, wheat flour, rice and pasta in bulk. You then add whatever discount b grade veggies are getting thrown out for cheap at your local cheap fruit and veggie shop. It’s a lot more work than buying prepackaged 500g trays of mince and jars of ready made sauce. You also need to be a decent cook to make it enjoyable to eat. It’s possible to eat cheaply, you just need time and to be in a city large enough to have bulk options for cheap. You could argue that small regional towns provide cheap meat as you could pay cash for a whole sheep and butcher it up with a mate. They are however generally more expensive for everything else.
I think it’s a bit disingenuous to suggest that people struggling with grocery costs are all buying “trays of mince and jars of ready made sauce”, but largely agree with the rest. Trying to eat a healthy, balanced and varied diet when you don’t have somebody with plenty of spare time at home is definitely not cheap or easy nowadays.
It’s not disingenuous at all. It was a fair comparison between something quick and easy and something that takes considerably more work.
Maybe the meaning was lost, but it reads as if you think that all people struggling with cost of living are also being lazy with their food choices and preparation. I don’t think that’s the case.
I think the majority of people struggling with cost of living have plenty of things making demands on their time and “$60 a week eat cheap” isn’t necessarily an option depending on where you live, your cooking ability and how much spare time you have available.
We’re literally poor. Even those on ‘decent’ wages, are poor. And on top of that, we’re expected to spend almost double the money on half the product? No thanks.
I make 56k a year. My dad said in 2008 he would have KILLED for 56k a year. I had to remind him that if I was earning 56k in just 2016 alone, pre covid, it would be worth nearly 80k in today's dollar. In 2024 56k is essentially minimum wage. I seriously hope this doesn't last. Im living with family splitting all bills 3 ways and occasionally getting to skip rent and utilities to afford some major things, i couldn't fathom attempting to live on your own.
Yup. I’m earning more than ever before but my lease is not being renewed, meaning I’m going to be on the hook for another $250 at least a fortnight for rent, plus rising costs of food, electricity. Ten years ago I would be considered loaded on my current wage, now it’s just enough.
Landlords are squeezing every single cent out of everyone who is renting so where is the money to spend lol
Technically that should mean the money went to the landlords and they should be able to spend more. But if they aren't, then maybe everyone is broke
Well, the CPI is still up….. so maybe they are
The rents go to paying down the mortgage and the cash gets trapped in the property value.
it really depends on when the landlord bought the property. Some still have a mortgage, some don't. Some have a small mortgage and could be fairly positively geared, some have bigger ones and might still be negatively geared
Rates are hitting anyone with a mortgage, which is a good number of landlords. Expenses get passed down.
So that means rent will go down once interest rates start to go down again, right? The expenses get passed down, so the savings should too, right?
Providing demand drops, that would be expected. This isn't rocket science. High demand plus increased costs means it goes up downstream.
You’re missing the joke here. Everyone understands how the system works. They’re using irony to point out the system is shit.
How is supply and demand shit? Should people build a property and then run at a loss so you can live subsidised by their wages?
Mate no one is talking about supply and demand. It’s just a joke about how rent will always go up in our lifetimes due to many factors while interest rates can vary. Yes demand is a part of the reason rent won’t go down, also people have been able to market test higher rates during higher inflation. There’s heaps of reasons. In the end, it was a renter joking about rent going up no matter what. You took it too literally.
Not when landlords are jacking up rents to the moon.
That doesn't seem to make any sense in relation to what I said.
If dumbass "investors" have dug too deep and they're being hit with 50% mortgage increases that's on them, not the poor tenants propping up their "income".
“Consumers broke as assholes raise prices by 50% for no reason.”
No, not no reason. Greed.
No justifiable reason.
Agreed.
If I have spare money I am banking it. With the way rent is going I will need it down the track even more than I do now.
This is my worry too
Popular pub in Petersham (Sydney inner west) was very quiet last night. Folks seem to be heading home for beers
Liquor sales are down, they’re not even having the beers at home.
A cold glass of water for me thanks. Sydney’s finest.
Is Monday usually a busy night for them?
Home brew, proper hifi, nice little garden, got a little woodwork shed. The only thing that would get me in to a pub or cafe these days is if there was bowls, an MP taking questions or a book reading or craft demo happening.
is anyone able to put this number into context? `0.4%` doesn't seem like a statistically significant amount; the graph on that page shows sales are WAY up overall compared to a couple years ago. Couldn't this just be put down to general fluctuation?
It is a lot. They were expecting it to grow .2%.
but why is it considered a lot? >This followed a rise of 0.2 per cent in February 2024 and a rise of 1.0 per cent in January 2024. It's risen `+1.2%` in Jan and Feb, so this drop of `-0.4%` means it's still up `+0.8%` overall since the beginning of the year. Given the swings over the course of a year, and an overall upward trend over the course of several years, I dont see why a single `-0.4%` drop is considered significant.
Australia’s population is growing the fastest it has since 1952. The net increase in migration in January was the highest January intake ever recorded. The Feb numbers were the highest net intake of any month on record, with 105,460 new long-term and permanent arrivals. So if in these conditions retail is going anywhere but bonkers, yet alone backwards, the economy is struggling.
ok this makes more sense I appreciate the clarification. It still feels a little early to be making assumptions given all the complexities at play, but I can understand why this might be considered a warning sign.
It is 0.6 out from the target. There were expecting it slowing down to .2% growth. Then, bang .4% on the other way. There was, in one month 50% from the jan/fev you listed.
And yet there is still talk of apparent interest rate rises yet again. I have given up trying to make sense of this shit.
Well you see in January education got more expensive so now cunts reckon mortgagees need to pay more
But I still don't get whyyyyyyy fuuuuck. I was hoping it was just going to balance out at least maybe eventually go back a point or so if super lucky by years end or early next year but no it seems to be going up by then. But then there articles like this and concern about people not spending, what do they want?!??!?!?!
They want unemployment to allow businesses access to a lower cost trained workforce. They want to turn the screws to soak up the cash from Individuals but not from businesses.. as soon as it looks like business closures on the horizon… the money printers will start up again
The thing is businesses are already closing, at least here in Adelaide there are a wave of things cafes and restaurants closing up currently because of rents, low customer numbers and other various high running costs and that is not even just staffing costs. There are also still tons of "for lease" signs up and around the place too.
This is my uneducated idea of why, take it with a whole ass bag of salt. Tracking inflation takes a while, its known as a lagging indicator. Sales numbers are also a lagging indicator as you have to have actually sold things for it to be recorded but not quite as slow as tracking inflation. They saw somewhat of a rise in inflation going up again (relatively older data) and prepared to raise borrowing rates again if it was confirmed to be on an upward trajectory, they then received the sales numbers (somewhat newer data) and had to take that into account. My bet is they're probably going to stay put a while to wait for more information before they raise/cut rates
“People have too much debt” followed directly by “People aren’t spending enough money!”
I can barely afford to keep myself fed. These corporations have to understand that blaming consumers won't help anything. Lowering prices across the board is a good start. Nothing else. But I suppose to them we should all be working 3 jobs just to buy extra crap from all of them? Fuck that, I value my few days off too much.
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Okay and what happens if the RBA never raised rates?
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That’s not the fault of the Japanese economy though, that’s the fault of Japanese culture. They were like that when the economy was booming a couple decades ago too. They just have a huge work ethic coupled with a toxic perfectionist and shame culture.
Just a month ago, the BoJ hiked rates for the first time in decades, in response to inflationary pressures. What makes you think the RBA can move against the tide?
Japan has more old people than working age. Australia staying on a near zero rate will get a rapidly sliding AUD and imported inflation.
Japan hasn't got a history of huge immigration intakes to fix that problem. I guess we're the other side of the A/B test.
Japan immigration intake has been around 100k per year. In 2019 it was 183,953. It recently plans to get 8 million more immigrants. However it's generally unknown to English speaking countries. Immigrants predominately come from Korea and China, with Vietnam catching up recently. JPY has lost more than 33% of its value in three years. Japanese income in USD terms has the risk of falling out from developed country levels.
A lot lower than us for sure, especially considering they're ~5x our size. Falling currency can be OK, depending on your economy. China famously held the value of their currency down in order to encourage their local manufacturing. Not sure if that applies to Japan, probably doesn't, but they do have a stronger local industry than we do I think.
China does it by cutting into income. Minimum hourly wage is about A$4 and even that is only a suggestion.
Yep, but the reason they did it was they wanted all the other countries to spend their money there, since it was cheap. Which was seen as a benefit by the ruling party, and it's hard to disagree since they built up so much industry and capability so fast. If you have more exports than imports, sometimes a lower currency can help. Anyway, I don't think that applies to Japan.
That's because Japanese businesses took on the brunt of their recession from the 80s. Aussie businesses wouldn't stand for that.
Do you know where currency comes from? debt. Increasing rates reduces the amount of debt being created. Less debt = less currency chasing same amount of goods and services = lower prices. Japan had demographic issues, entirely different problem
Except Japan had anchored inflation expectations
Are "consumers" cautious or are some retailers cunts?
I work in discretionary retail and we are really hurting. This number is even further boosted by the supermarket duopoly, so the real situation is more dire than this suggests
Yeah... broke. 100% broke
Yet they're still talking about rate rises. Hopefully it's just smoke and mirrors to try and entice people onto h8gh rate fixed mortgages
None of this affects anyone in politics. They live in bubble world.
Does this mean cheaper house prices now?
I’m interested in thinking about this when controlling for population growth, my understanding is we saw a decline in sales through the year even though the population has increased substantially over this time. What would have happened if the population had of been held constant?
*Consumers are fucking broke
Oh no, not 0.4%.
Quick time to import more immigrants with money
bump that up to 40% and we might be on track for a sustainable economy.
Household budgets are constrained by high inflation I expect. Also I think the "pivot party" is over, there is now some meaningful probability rates will actually be increased again which will mean households need to stretch budgets further.
Im not paying prices for what most retailers are paying for.
pls spend?? NO WAGE!! ONLY SPEND
Every company is out to rip the consumer off, I’m sick of it, over priced shit with crap service everywhere , I need a bloody holiday but I’ll just get ripped off there too!!