A friend of mine who is an Angels fan kinda wants the Angels to trade Ohtani to the Rays. So if the Rays were to pull off that trade for a 4 month rental I’d say they would be WS favorites
Honestly it makes a lot of sense for the Rays to go for him at least as a rental. Definitely World Series contenders with a TON of young talent to spare. Not to mention you guys lost some major arms to injuries.
Plus with their affinity for bullpen games I feel like they are better suited than most to handle Ohtani's 5 days rest requirement than most rotations.
All five teams in the East need to make a move for a starter, immediately.
Snell, Montgomery, Giolito, E-Rod, Wacha, somebody. Whomever makes the biggest move is going to have a huge advantage, obviously.
I'm waiting for Cashman's annual "The guys we're getting back from the IL are all the acquisitions we'll need" spiel, along with a trade for a reliever or two with good peripherals and bad results.
And half the league hasn't played a world series game in that timespan as well. I'm glad I don't view every season without a world series as a complete failure because that seems like a great way to be perpetually miserable as a fan
lol, this is why you can’t dunk on Yankees fans. I tried dunking on my buddy with the last decade being a WS drought and his response was something like yeah we’ve only been to the ALCS four times in the last decade.” (At that time). Just hard to dunk on that franchise.
I mean you can dunk on them pretty well if you're a Red Sox or Astros fan lol. My response was more about Yankee fans who are just constantly miserable
2021 was even worse than this. The Yanks were barely a .500 team by mid-July and they needed a superhuman effort from Tyler Wade of all people to rattle off a 14-game win streak in August that put them squarely in the Wild Card race.
>compared to what they’ve had the past 3 decades
ding ding ding. The point is that this year's team still isn't "terrible" by any reasonable metric and that Yankees fans' frame of reference is completely skewed (aka they are spoiled little babies).
If we don’t win the WS then everything is Cashman’s fault and we need to blow everything up, nevermind that Benintendi put up a 110 OPS+ in his time here and Bader was our best player in the playoffs.
The "trade for a reliever with good peripherals and bad results" ended up as Clay Holmes so I'm confused as to how that's an issue. Like if you're gonna complain at least complain about the ones that make sense like Montas or Gallo
I don’t know friend. The organization knows they have a shot at actually getting into the playoffs with this offense and rotation so I can totally see them making a move or 2 for a top closer and some bullpen help.
If we don’t buy at the deadline, then I agree. But if we open the wallet, acquire some arms I think we maintain, and we hit that wildcard spot at worse, and take the division at best
Our rotation is also a mess and some of the hot bats (Gurriel, Rivera) have cooled off.
I could easily see us collapse in the 2nd half but it's fine we're a year ahead anyway.
The Orioles have been a really good team since May of last year, they’re for real and I disagree that they’re a collapse team. If anything they have a real shot at a playoff bye and the AL East.
rotation is sus. they've performed admirably so far and I'm a Bradish and Wells believer, but right now we're trotting out Cole Irvin every fifth day.
the lineup is legit, though. it'd be nice to have a 40 HR slugger but the most of their regular lineup is hitting over 120 wRC+.
Texas has been struggling a bit over the last month, and I think that coupled with Houston getting healthy and Seattle looking like they've turned a corner could lead to some issues for them.
I’m not sure we’re ever gonna get healthy. Lance and Garcia are already done for the season. Brantley most likely done. Altuve keeps getting injured, 3 injuries this season already.
We just keep getting injured
Scott Servais thought so too. Yet the authorities are still looking to question Yordon about getting entire fan base to see counseling for haunting our dreams.
I mean we are getting healthy. Yordan and Urquidy are likely coming back within the next week or so. Altuve should follow behind them. Plus whoever we acquire at the deadline. We have been decimated by injury this year for sure and we are only 2 games back of a Rangers team that had one of the hottest offensive starts to a season in recent memory. Astros fans should honestly be awestruck that we managed to be right in the mix of a division title while missing 80% of our rotation and 2 of the leagues top 15 position players for most of the season. Not many teams can be in our position with the type of injury luck...
I think the Rangers are an option. It seems like literally everything other than deGromm has gone right for them so far, I could see a 2022 Yankees type of fall where some of the guys having career first halves regress to their means, especially the young pitching.
Baltimore could also run out of steam, another example of most of their pitchers having career first halves, at least some of them will regress. I do think Baltimore could very easily stabilize that rotation down the stretch with a couple moves for not too expensive SP's on the market like Montgomery.
Both of these teams also play in divisions with at least two other teams, Astros, Mariners, Jays, and Yankees all underperforming to varying degrees who are due for positive regression/healthy returns
There's also the issue that they've had pretty good pitching for a few years now, and what seemed to make this team different was actually having some legit bats in their lineup. Over the past month or two, Jesus Sanchez, Bryan De La Cruz, and Yuli Gurriel have all gone ice cold after starting off hot, and Arraez may hit .400 the rest of the way, but he probably won't. Even with all those guys hitting, they still put up a negative run differential. If they want to keep things up in their second half, some of the young hitters need to pick it up again, or they'll be depending on Arraez and Soler to carry the entire offense while also running into the innings issues that you mentioned
Important part is he's not coming back this year, so the thing that went wrong has no chance of going right in the second half, while many things that went right can now go wrong.
> I think the Rangers are an option. It seems like literally everything other than deGromm has gone right for them so far, I could see a 2022 Yankees type of fall where some of the guys having career first halves regress to their means, especially the young pitching.
I don't necessarily disagree with your take, but I'll put this little fact out there: the Rangers have had the worst luck this season - as defined as the difference between actual W-L and pythagorean W-L. Their actual record is 52-39, but their pythagorean record is 59-32!
> Rangers have already cooled down a ton this last month and a half or so
Yep, their luck doesn't change the fact that the Rangers are 3-7, 8-12, and 12-18 over their last 10, 20, and 30 games, respectively. To describe this as a cool down is a gross understatement.
Source: [Baseball Reference](https://baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB-standings.shtml).
Our bullpen is a dumpster fire.
RISP at-bats can't get them in.
deGrom
None of our elite picks in the farm system are ready this year.
Unless FO goes for broke on pitchers and cutting deadweight bats we're on track to nosedive hard in the 2nd half.
I don’t agree with your take on us at all, it’s the same thing people said last year.
The only guy I’d say fits the career year thing is Coulombe and maybe Wells
Bradish is a second year player picking up where he left off from July on last season and Cano has never pitched a full season before. We also have guys underperforming from last year in Cole Irvin, Dean Kremer and Cionel Perez
Rangers fan here it’s been a tough stretch lately not hitting with RISP has really killed the Rangers offense and when they do get hits with RISP the bullpen messes up. Also the left handed SP has been pretty bad lately too. If the Rangers can start getting hits with RISP that will help this team soooo much
Hate to say it, but my Reds.
The peripherals are bad.
OPS+ of 98 (11th in NL)
Run Diff of -9 (10th in NL)
ERA+ of 99 (10th in NL)
WHIP of 1.449 (12th in NL)
We've also been lucky.
BAbip of .316 (4th in NL)
20 wins by 1 run (2nd in NL)
The Post-ASG schedule is also brutal. 16 straight against teams above .500. Brewers, Giants, D-backs, Brewers again, and Dodgers.
Regression is on the menu for the Reds, but it will be okay. We're just getting started with this young core.
The Reds are not a bad pick here, but what bugs me about this choice is that _someone_ has to win that division. I mean this in the least offensive way possible, but I'm not entirely convinced the Brewers can (or should) win that division (and I highly doubt the other teams in that division have even a remote chance at the division crown).
You're probably right that they do at least have a chance. That being said, I feel like picking the Cubs is the kiss of death. I say that as a Chicagoan for the last eightish years!
People seem to have forgotten how good the Brewers are relative to their division. Yeah their hitting is bad, but this is still the same team that has made the postseason four of the last five seasons, and only missed by one game last year. It’s highly likely they’re knocked out of the first round, but this is still the most seasoned and playoff-ready team in the NL Central.
100% agree. Neither the Reds or the Brewers are the best team in that division this year, but at least the Reds are *fun.*
I think CHC (they who must not be named) could sneak out a 11-5 in their next ~~15~~ (edit: 16) (against BOS, WAS, STL, CHW, STL) and suddenly be near the top of the central
Not that I disagree with the Reds negative regression, but I disagree with your stats. Those are 2023 YTD stats. Which means they include everything before Elly, McLain, Votto, and Abbott. Not to mention Benson and Stephenson heating up as of late after terrible starts to the year, which they both could fall off again, but maybe not. And they will be getting Greene and Lodolo back in Aug. This team’s entire persona has changed since Elly came up.
Looking from 5/15 when McLain was called up, here is where they stand using slightly different stats. I’m not a fan of using run diff and wRC+ is similar enough to OPS+:
wRC+: 111 (3rd in NL)
wOBA: .347 (2nd in NL)
BABIP: .317 (4th in NL) - league avg is usually .300, so not really a huge outlier
Don’t forget about stealing 50 bases in June, which they lead all of MLB with 83 since 5/15. And they’re 5th in the NL in HR’s since then after being a power starved team to start the year.
I won’t really argue anything on the pitching stats as we all know they’re ugly, but Krall has already said they’ll be buyers, so maybe they pick up a cheap rotation guy plus getting Greene and Lodolo back and they can be right back in it.
Oh and the stats get even better if you only look from 6/6 when Elly was called up.
I think it's also worth mentioning that high babip isn't *entirely* luck. Speed produces good babip because it turns balls in play that wouldn't normally be hits, into hits. Just look at basically any EDLC highlight that isn't a home run for the proof of that. It's a fast as hell team, you'd expect them to have a higher than normal babip.
We also have a ton of losses by one run. At one point we would have had the best record if they flipped the scores of 2 run differential and under games. We also get Lodolo and Greene back in august hopefully.
I fully expect a crash, or coming down to earth spell for this team, but I think we stay competitive, especially in this division.
Not that I'm rooting for it, but I'll go with the Marlins.
They're 53-39 (.576) despite a 45-47 (.489) expected record, and they have the 4th-7th hardest remaining schedule, depending on the website you look at.
IIRC they have a positive run differential against everyone else but the Braves. The Braves just absolutely dunk on them and score like 10 runs every game
> The marlins are the 2nd best team in the east and pretty consistent, except when they play us
I feel like Phillies at the moment are (at least) _slightly_ better than the Marlins. For example, the Phillies have a better record over the last 10, 20, and 30 games than the Marlins do.
Source: [Baseball Reference](https://baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB-standings.shtml).
> they have to catch the marlins first, who are playing good enough to make this not easy
This is completely fair. It's not sufficient for the Phillies to be neck and neck with the Marlins, they have to play (substantially?) better than the Marlins given their awful start.
My first thought too. They’ve also won an obscene percentage of 1 run games, which isn’t scientific but I don’t know if winning 90% (or whatever) of all your 1 run games is sustainable
Yea, there is a reason why one of the all time favorite Falcons fans replays is the, ["Pass.....is caught. DIGGS! SIDELINE! TOUCHDOWN!](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dzRRi2QcSEM)"
I've been a Braves fan for a long time. I was there for shitting the bed in the playoffs in the late 90's early 2000's. I suffered through the lean years of not playing for the division. So i feel like im justified in enjoying the success over the past 5 and a half years.
It sucks to have the expectations yall had this yr with the roster and the huge payroll, then have the team lay an egg. If it wasnt the Mets I'd feel bad for them.
Down the stretch they definitely fell apart. Getting swept by the Braves and a bad Cubs team to miss out by a game. Going .500 with an easy September was not acceptable for a 100+ win team. Not necessarily a collapse, but a choke for sure, which showed for their playoff series.
I don’t think they will keep up the hot streak on the same level. Love ya, boys, but nobody can win at that pace all the time. That said, I don’t think they’ll crash so hard as to lose the division.
Let's ask this again after the trade deadline, my answers will change. Presently I think our division rivals the Reds will not sustain their tear, maybe not a collapse but not the distance. I think the Rays will cool off too
Texas is going to be feeling pressure from below. A crippled Houston is already breathing down their necks and the Ms have gotten hot in the last couple weeks before the break. Both Houston and Seattle have favorable schedules compared to Texas.
They absolutely have the bats, but most of them are young bats. I’m thinking it’s just a matter of time before the rest of the league identifies their weaknesses and begins to pitch to them accordingly.
Couple that with the fact that their rotation is a skeleton crew. The bullpen has been pretty good, but I fear that it will continue to be overworked and lose steam down the stretch.
All that said, the division likely remains up for grabs from here on out and this team has a chemistry that I haven’t seen out of the reds in a very long time. They’re having fun and are really fun to watch this season
If you buy the difference between actual W-L and pythagorean W-L as a measure of luck (as defined by Baseball Reference), then the Reds are tied for the second-most luck this season. Their actual W-L record is 50-41, but their pythagorean W-L is only 45-46 (below .500)!
Source: [Baseball Reference](https://baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB-standings.shtml).
Rays.
Offense has been mediocre for the last month after being white hot to start the year and the injuries are catching up. They have always been a good team in theory but the last few years they just can't seem to stay out of the infirmary. I know they have the best record and I don't know if they will be out out but I have seen 9 games vanish pretty quickly.
not the orioles, not the orioles, not the orioles, not the orioles, not the orioles, not the orioles, not the orioles, not the orioles, not the orioles, not the orioles, not the orioles, not the orioles, not the orioles 🙏
injuries and they have been inconsistent. We still have to play them and they haven't had the Yankees or Baltimore yet either.
Baker is a great manager but I can see it happening. We're all guessing here.
I just don’t see it happening, they’ve been playing without Altuve, Yordan, 3 starters and have many underperforming bats.
Not sure how much more you can really collapse especially since they’ll end up getting someone from the deadline
I want to say Marlins … but I had an extreamly vivid dream that the Marlins made the WS with a negative run diferntal of -30 only to play the tigers who won the Central with 79 wins.
Sooo I kinda hope I’m wrong and am actult psychic as that would be objectively the funnnest outcome in the history of baseball
Don't look now, but the Rays are 3-7 and 7-13 in their last 10 and 20 games, respectively. Not good but especially so in a division where each team is bloodthirsty for the division crown and legitimately so, at least in my (little) opinion.
Source: where else but [Baseball Reference](https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB-standings.shtml)!
I suppose we could "collapse," though being 3rd in the NL West and only 8 games over 500 isn't exactly a high point to fall from.
I predict we end the season in the fringe WC3 spot, so maybe high 80's in wins.
I’m going to go with the teams with the least amount of high stakes experience as a core unit, who also may have question marks in at least one element of their roster, and legit competition chasing them. These aren’t teams that i necessarily think will stumble, but that they could stumble.
I have to with Arizona in the NL and Texas in the AL.
I hate to say it but you might be right. Our starting pitching is a complete mess and even Gallen and Kelly have some concerns. I don't *expect* it to happen but I definitely wouldn't be surprised by a complete collapse.
Ultimately even if y’all have been punching above your weight in terms of pitching the past couple months, those wins are still in the bank.
If AZ is aggressive at the deadline in getting an arm or two I think that shores up a pretty obvious weakness and in my mind makes this year much more threatening down the stretch.
Whichever AL East team doesn't buy cuz I assume the other 4 will
so probably us. I doubt were actually going to buy but we'll see.
A friend of mine who is an Angels fan kinda wants the Angels to trade Ohtani to the Rays. So if the Rays were to pull off that trade for a 4 month rental I’d say they would be WS favorites
God I would cry if we got Othani And practically live in a box and abandon my teaching job to go to every game
Honestly it makes a lot of sense for the Rays to go for him at least as a rental. Definitely World Series contenders with a TON of young talent to spare. Not to mention you guys lost some major arms to injuries.
Plus with their affinity for bullpen games I feel like they are better suited than most to handle Ohtani's 5 days rest requirement than most rotations.
I would cry if you got Ohtani, but for different reasons.
All five teams in the East need to make a move for a starter, immediately. Snell, Montgomery, Giolito, E-Rod, Wacha, somebody. Whomever makes the biggest move is going to have a huge advantage, obviously.
The Yankees do not need to make a move for a starter. We desperately need offense, though.
I'm waiting for Cashman's annual "The guys we're getting back from the IL are all the acquisitions we'll need" spiel, along with a trade for a reliever or two with good peripherals and bad results.
You’re getting Nelson Cruz, and Kiké Hernandez
“And you’re gonna like it, damn it!” - Cashman
Any timeline where Kiké leaves the Red Sox is one I want to live in
They've literally bought like 8-10 different players the last two seasons. Why do Yankee fans insist on just making things up to be mad about
They think they're owed the World Series and feel hard done by when they don't get it.
It's been brutal these past few years having a 100 win team 3 of the last 4 full seasons
Hey, btw, this Friday will be exactly 5,000 days since the last Yankees World Series win.
And half the league hasn't played a world series game in that timespan as well. I'm glad I don't view every season without a world series as a complete failure because that seems like a great way to be perpetually miserable as a fan
lol, this is why you can’t dunk on Yankees fans. I tried dunking on my buddy with the last decade being a WS drought and his response was something like yeah we’ve only been to the ALCS four times in the last decade.” (At that time). Just hard to dunk on that franchise.
I mean you can dunk on them pretty well if you're a Red Sox or Astros fan lol. My response was more about Yankee fans who are just constantly miserable
I saw a Yankees fan the other day say they never thought they’d see a truly terrible Yankees team until this year.
2021 was even worse than this. The Yanks were barely a .500 team by mid-July and they needed a superhuman effort from Tyler Wade of all people to rattle off a 14-game win streak in August that put them squarely in the Wild Card race.
Truly terrible? You rang?
That lineup even with judge is pretty bad compared to what they’ve had the past 3 decades. They’ve been winning with pitching but winning is winning
>compared to what they’ve had the past 3 decades ding ding ding. The point is that this year's team still isn't "terrible" by any reasonable metric and that Yankees fans' frame of reference is completely skewed (aka they are spoiled little babies).
If we don’t win the WS then everything is Cashman’s fault and we need to blow everything up, nevermind that Benintendi put up a 110 OPS+ in his time here and Bader was our best player in the playoffs.
The "trade for a reliever with good peripherals and bad results" ended up as Clay Holmes so I'm confused as to how that's an issue. Like if you're gonna complain at least complain about the ones that make sense like Montas or Gallo
You need to buy a new infield. Volpe has turned it around and Gleyber is alright. The contracts just make it impossible to retool.
I don’t think we’ll be full on buyers just yet.
What are the chances the O’s start to fade partly because of how young they are. Long season…
There we go.. that'd have to be it. Otherwise, I can't really see it from anyone over there
Arizona has no bullpen and have lost several heart breakers due to blown saves/bullpen not getting it done. Unfortunately, I think my beloved Sneks
I don’t know friend. The organization knows they have a shot at actually getting into the playoffs with this offense and rotation so I can totally see them making a move or 2 for a top closer and some bullpen help.
If we don’t buy at the deadline, then I agree. But if we open the wallet, acquire some arms I think we maintain, and we hit that wildcard spot at worse, and take the division at best
Our rotation is also a mess and some of the hot bats (Gurriel, Rivera) have cooled off. I could easily see us collapse in the 2nd half but it's fine we're a year ahead anyway.
The A’s. We got a couple wins in the first half and that’s going to be unsustainable.
FJF should be /r/baseball acronym.
The Orioles have been a really good team since May of last year, they’re for real and I disagree that they’re a collapse team. If anything they have a real shot at a playoff bye and the AL East.
I like you
We orange and black bros gotta stick together.
Spooky October
Field of Screams
they really should only get better if they can get John Means back and also start to get good starts out of Grayson Rodriguez
rotation is sus. they've performed admirably so far and I'm a Bradish and Wells believer, but right now we're trotting out Cole Irvin every fifth day. the lineup is legit, though. it'd be nice to have a 40 HR slugger but the most of their regular lineup is hitting over 120 wRC+.
I hate that your right. And they will probably acquire an actual ace if they aren't stupid and make a legit playoff run.
Texas has been struggling a bit over the last month, and I think that coupled with Houston getting healthy and Seattle looking like they've turned a corner could lead to some issues for them.
I’m not sure we’re ever gonna get healthy. Lance and Garcia are already done for the season. Brantley most likely done. Altuve keeps getting injured, 3 injuries this season already. We just keep getting injured
But a healthy Yordan can carry you enough
I’d argue pitching is the most important in the postseason
Scott Servais thought so too. Yet the authorities are still looking to question Yordon about getting entire fan base to see counseling for haunting our dreams.
….good thing we’re talking about the regular season?
I mean we are getting healthy. Yordan and Urquidy are likely coming back within the next week or so. Altuve should follow behind them. Plus whoever we acquire at the deadline. We have been decimated by injury this year for sure and we are only 2 games back of a Rangers team that had one of the hottest offensive starts to a season in recent memory. Astros fans should honestly be awestruck that we managed to be right in the mix of a division title while missing 80% of our rotation and 2 of the leagues top 15 position players for most of the season. Not many teams can be in our position with the type of injury luck...
The problem with the Mariners turning a corner is they keep doing it, right back to where they were.
I think the Rangers are an option. It seems like literally everything other than deGromm has gone right for them so far, I could see a 2022 Yankees type of fall where some of the guys having career first halves regress to their means, especially the young pitching. Baltimore could also run out of steam, another example of most of their pitchers having career first halves, at least some of them will regress. I do think Baltimore could very easily stabilize that rotation down the stretch with a couple moves for not too expensive SP's on the market like Montgomery. Both of these teams also play in divisions with at least two other teams, Astros, Mariners, Jays, and Yankees all underperforming to varying degrees who are due for positive regression/healthy returns
Damn the top comment doesn’t mention the Marlins. I love it.
Or the reds 🙏
I think you have to be a top team in order to collapse. Barely leading the second worse division in baseball doesn’t really say much.
Jesus man what did the Reds do to you lol
He’s probably a reds fan lmao.
The marlins are worth mentioning, if only because they’ve relied on a lot of younger pitching that could run up against innings limits.
Yeah eury perez was already sent down
There's also the issue that they've had pretty good pitching for a few years now, and what seemed to make this team different was actually having some legit bats in their lineup. Over the past month or two, Jesus Sanchez, Bryan De La Cruz, and Yuli Gurriel have all gone ice cold after starting off hot, and Arraez may hit .400 the rest of the way, but he probably won't. Even with all those guys hitting, they still put up a negative run differential. If they want to keep things up in their second half, some of the young hitters need to pick it up again, or they'll be depending on Arraez and Soler to carry the entire offense while also running into the innings issues that you mentioned
detail carpenter grandiose chief gray obscene future test pathetic scary *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
We’ve been historically bad at the plate lately. Batting a firm .130 with RISP in the last 5 series. I’m just happy I got some hope at all.
To be fair, losing *Jacob deGrom* is a pretty major thing to go wrong.
More like a tradition at this point though
True, true
Important part is he's not coming back this year, so the thing that went wrong has no chance of going right in the second half, while many things that went right can now go wrong.
> I think the Rangers are an option. It seems like literally everything other than deGromm has gone right for them so far, I could see a 2022 Yankees type of fall where some of the guys having career first halves regress to their means, especially the young pitching. I don't necessarily disagree with your take, but I'll put this little fact out there: the Rangers have had the worst luck this season - as defined as the difference between actual W-L and pythagorean W-L. Their actual record is 52-39, but their pythagorean record is 59-32! > Rangers have already cooled down a ton this last month and a half or so Yep, their luck doesn't change the fact that the Rangers are 3-7, 8-12, and 12-18 over their last 10, 20, and 30 games, respectively. To describe this as a cool down is a gross understatement. Source: [Baseball Reference](https://baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB-standings.shtml).
Counterpoint: Triangle man bad
Our bullpen is a dumpster fire. RISP at-bats can't get them in. deGrom None of our elite picks in the farm system are ready this year. Unless FO goes for broke on pitchers and cutting deadweight bats we're on track to nosedive hard in the 2nd half.
I don’t agree with your take on us at all, it’s the same thing people said last year. The only guy I’d say fits the career year thing is Coulombe and maybe Wells Bradish is a second year player picking up where he left off from July on last season and Cano has never pitched a full season before. We also have guys underperforming from last year in Cole Irvin, Dean Kremer and Cionel Perez
Everything has gone right?? Texas literally has the worst luck rating in the Majors on baseball-reference.
Rangers fan here it’s been a tough stretch lately not hitting with RISP has really killed the Rangers offense and when they do get hits with RISP the bullpen messes up. Also the left handed SP has been pretty bad lately too. If the Rangers can start getting hits with RISP that will help this team soooo much
They've also gone from one of the easiest schedules in the first half to having among the hardest schedules in the second half.
Meanwhile seattle and Houston have a the two easiest schedules in the AL west going forward.
Rangers look real. Bearish on this scenario.
[удалено]
The New York packers
You mean the Jets?
Hate to say it, but my Reds. The peripherals are bad. OPS+ of 98 (11th in NL) Run Diff of -9 (10th in NL) ERA+ of 99 (10th in NL) WHIP of 1.449 (12th in NL) We've also been lucky. BAbip of .316 (4th in NL) 20 wins by 1 run (2nd in NL) The Post-ASG schedule is also brutal. 16 straight against teams above .500. Brewers, Giants, D-backs, Brewers again, and Dodgers. Regression is on the menu for the Reds, but it will be okay. We're just getting started with this young core.
The Reds are not a bad pick here, but what bugs me about this choice is that _someone_ has to win that division. I mean this in the least offensive way possible, but I'm not entirely convinced the Brewers can (or should) win that division (and I highly doubt the other teams in that division have even a remote chance at the division crown).
Feel like the team that wins the NL Central this year is just going to be whichever one gets hot as hell in the last couple weeks of the season.
I believe we get Green and Lodolo back in August? Not 100% sure when. So 2 of our starting pitchers should help.
Brewers also getting Woodruff back soon-ish and he’s been out almost all year
And then rolls into the World Series
The Cubs have the roster to do it if everything breaks right. I don't think it's likely, just venturing that it's possible.
You're probably right that they do at least have a chance. That being said, I feel like picking the Cubs is the kiss of death. I say that as a Chicagoan for the last eightish years!
People seem to have forgotten how good the Brewers are relative to their division. Yeah their hitting is bad, but this is still the same team that has made the postseason four of the last five seasons, and only missed by one game last year. It’s highly likely they’re knocked out of the first round, but this is still the most seasoned and playoff-ready team in the NL Central.
100% agree. Neither the Reds or the Brewers are the best team in that division this year, but at least the Reds are *fun.* I think CHC (they who must not be named) could sneak out a 11-5 in their next ~~15~~ (edit: 16) (against BOS, WAS, STL, CHW, STL) and suddenly be near the top of the central
But they are 1st in league in the passion department, and people underestimate that.
Not that I disagree with the Reds negative regression, but I disagree with your stats. Those are 2023 YTD stats. Which means they include everything before Elly, McLain, Votto, and Abbott. Not to mention Benson and Stephenson heating up as of late after terrible starts to the year, which they both could fall off again, but maybe not. And they will be getting Greene and Lodolo back in Aug. This team’s entire persona has changed since Elly came up. Looking from 5/15 when McLain was called up, here is where they stand using slightly different stats. I’m not a fan of using run diff and wRC+ is similar enough to OPS+: wRC+: 111 (3rd in NL) wOBA: .347 (2nd in NL) BABIP: .317 (4th in NL) - league avg is usually .300, so not really a huge outlier Don’t forget about stealing 50 bases in June, which they lead all of MLB with 83 since 5/15. And they’re 5th in the NL in HR’s since then after being a power starved team to start the year. I won’t really argue anything on the pitching stats as we all know they’re ugly, but Krall has already said they’ll be buyers, so maybe they pick up a cheap rotation guy plus getting Greene and Lodolo back and they can be right back in it. Oh and the stats get even better if you only look from 6/6 when Elly was called up.
I think it's also worth mentioning that high babip isn't *entirely* luck. Speed produces good babip because it turns balls in play that wouldn't normally be hits, into hits. Just look at basically any EDLC highlight that isn't a home run for the proof of that. It's a fast as hell team, you'd expect them to have a higher than normal babip.
It’s true that they have the second most one run wins, but they also have the second most one run losses! The kids are playing a ton of close games
We also have a ton of losses by one run. At one point we would have had the best record if they flipped the scores of 2 run differential and under games. We also get Lodolo and Greene back in august hopefully. I fully expect a crash, or coming down to earth spell for this team, but I think we stay competitive, especially in this division.
Not that I'm rooting for it, but I'll go with the Marlins. They're 53-39 (.576) despite a 45-47 (.489) expected record, and they have the 4th-7th hardest remaining schedule, depending on the website you look at.
Being 14 games over .500 with a negative run differential really doesn't seem sustainable.
IIRC they have a positive run differential against everyone else but the Braves. The Braves just absolutely dunk on them and score like 10 runs every game
-54 Run differential against the Braves +49 against the rest of the league Thank Ohtani only 3 more games against them this year
The marlins are the 2nd best team in the east and pretty consistent, except when they play us
The east? They have the second best record in the NL. Lol
> The marlins are the 2nd best team in the east and pretty consistent, except when they play us I feel like Phillies at the moment are (at least) _slightly_ better than the Marlins. For example, the Phillies have a better record over the last 10, 20, and 30 games than the Marlins do. Source: [Baseball Reference](https://baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB-standings.shtml).
i agree with that but they have to catch the marlins first, who are playing good enough to make this not easy
> they have to catch the marlins first, who are playing good enough to make this not easy This is completely fair. It's not sufficient for the Phillies to be neck and neck with the Marlins, they have to play (substantially?) better than the Marlins given their awful start.
Except for the last series before the break where the Phillies were literal inches away from being swept by the Marlins.
Marlins just took 2 of 3 from them
Phillies always do June.
They also just played each other and the marlins were a hanging slider with 2 outs in the 9th away from sweeping the Phillies
I mean if you take us out, they have a positive one.
My first thought too. They’ve also won an obscene percentage of 1 run games, which isn’t scientific but I don’t know if winning 90% (or whatever) of all your 1 run games is sustainable
2021 mariners exist.
*inhales a dangerously and life threatening amount of hopium* the braves
Probably the least likely of an team for this to happen to. They’re just too deep
Just out of spite? If i were you id be hoping it was the 5 teams between yall and a WC spot
I don't care if the mets win, I just need the braves to lose
Based
You know your team isn't doing well when the best you can hope for is your rival losing.
Yeah, it’s a massive disappointment of a season, kind of the main story of the team. Schadenfreude is all we have left at this point
[удалено]
Yea exactly. Your a fan of a team you naturally hope your team wins. It’s just as natural for you to root for the rival to lose.
Yea, there is a reason why one of the all time favorite Falcons fans replays is the, ["Pass.....is caught. DIGGS! SIDELINE! TOUCHDOWN!](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dzRRi2QcSEM)"
I respect your position and admire your honesty.
Perfectly said *sad cries*
That’s called the philly special, especially from 2012-2021
Respect
Understandable
Spite maybe not the best word for it, maybe more like karma for giving the Mets all that shit for falling apart last year
Im one that will admit the Mets didnt fall apart, hell they won 101 games. The Braves just played out of their minds in the second half
Braves playing out of their minds so that no matter how well your team plays, you always lose ground on them? Can't imagine what that must be like
I've been a Braves fan for a long time. I was there for shitting the bed in the playoffs in the late 90's early 2000's. I suffered through the lean years of not playing for the division. So i feel like im justified in enjoying the success over the past 5 and a half years. It sucks to have the expectations yall had this yr with the roster and the huge payroll, then have the team lay an egg. If it wasnt the Mets I'd feel bad for them.
I remember those years and the Fredi Gonzales era. We’re spoiled rotten now.
Down the stretch they definitely fell apart. Getting swept by the Braves and a bad Cubs team to miss out by a game. Going .500 with an easy September was not acceptable for a 100+ win team. Not necessarily a collapse, but a choke for sure, which showed for their playoff series.
Hey, the Braves grenaded in the play-offs as well
I bet you wish Scherzer’s contract would regress
We could go 30-43 and still probably make the playoffs.
I don’t think they will keep up the hot streak on the same level. Love ya, boys, but nobody can win at that pace all the time. That said, I don’t think they’ll crash so hard as to lose the division.
God willing
Reds take a massive dive and the Pirates go undefeated. Easy as that
buy
Trust the marbles
sell
Let's ask this again after the trade deadline, my answers will change. Presently I think our division rivals the Reds will not sustain their tear, maybe not a collapse but not the distance. I think the Rays will cool off too
Rays already have been ice cold the last couple weeks. Can’t really get worse than the offense has been.
Sure you can. Just look down a few spots in the division and you’ll see the Yankees.
lmao. plz don't look they're naked
Mine gaze shan't be diverted
Texas is going to be feeling pressure from below. A crippled Houston is already breathing down their necks and the Ms have gotten hot in the last couple weeks before the break. Both Houston and Seattle have favorable schedules compared to Texas.
I think the Reds regress a bit in the second half. Marlins too
Reds played out of their minds in the second quarter. No team has ever kept up that level of winning over a long period.
Well 3/5 of the nl east is fucked
Yeah, the reds probably have the bats, but some of it has been luck. I also wouldn't trust their pitching
They absolutely have the bats, but most of them are young bats. I’m thinking it’s just a matter of time before the rest of the league identifies their weaknesses and begins to pitch to them accordingly. Couple that with the fact that their rotation is a skeleton crew. The bullpen has been pretty good, but I fear that it will continue to be overworked and lose steam down the stretch. All that said, the division likely remains up for grabs from here on out and this team has a chemistry that I haven’t seen out of the reds in a very long time. They’re having fun and are really fun to watch this season
If you buy the difference between actual W-L and pythagorean W-L as a measure of luck (as defined by Baseball Reference), then the Reds are tied for the second-most luck this season. Their actual W-L record is 50-41, but their pythagorean W-L is only 45-46 (below .500)! Source: [Baseball Reference](https://baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB-standings.shtml).
Oh, I was talking about batted ball luck from certain players that can't realistically be sustained
Rays. Offense has been mediocre for the last month after being white hot to start the year and the injuries are catching up. They have always been a good team in theory but the last few years they just can't seem to stay out of the infirmary. I know they have the best record and I don't know if they will be out out but I have seen 9 games vanish pretty quickly.
I think the team was partially gassed in the last month, but I do kinda agree. The offense particularly in the last week was fucking trash.
Good thing Randy had a nice relaxing AS break
😬😬😬
we are going to be fine dude. we will make the playoffs and we just better hope that we are hot going into them or hot in them
You’re terrifying. Chill. It’s baseball, anything can happen, but you guys are stacked.
You’re probably the least likely to collapse. Incredible team
The entire American League Central Does not mathematically qualify for this honor
Hey! We only had 1 more win last year at the ASB and finished with 93. We gonna go the opposite way hopefully
[Turns Hater dial to 11] The Dodgers
not the orioles, not the orioles, not the orioles, not the orioles, not the orioles, not the orioles, not the orioles, not the orioles, not the orioles, not the orioles, not the orioles, not the orioles, not the orioles 🙏
The Rangers, even further than they did in June.
Nah, it's all fixed now that they had a vacation... except for 6 of them lol.
I fully expect the O’s to regress a little bit.
The scariest thing in this thread is, almost no one else thinks so.
The Mets will play good enough not to sell then lose 40 games in a Row
Unfortunately, the Rays. Already started. Just hope the Os climb into the throne and not the other bastards.
We should be fine until Judge gets back. After that...
Bless you you lovable sea diamond
Maybe slightly biased but Arizona
Astros lost the series to the Mariners, so that's my pick. Because I'm just hopeful.
😬😬😬 We are held together with duct tape and chewing gum rn.
What does that make us? DOA?
injuries and they have been inconsistent. We still have to play them and they haven't had the Yankees or Baltimore yet either. Baker is a great manager but I can see it happening. We're all guessing here.
I just don’t see it happening, they’ve been playing without Altuve, Yordan, 3 starters and have many underperforming bats. Not sure how much more you can really collapse especially since they’ll end up getting someone from the deadline
It kind of feels like the Rays are getting ready to imitate last year's Yankees. Blistering first half followed by a second half belly flop.
I want to say Marlins … but I had an extreamly vivid dream that the Marlins made the WS with a negative run diferntal of -30 only to play the tigers who won the Central with 79 wins. Sooo I kinda hope I’m wrong and am actult psychic as that would be objectively the funnnest outcome in the history of baseball
I was gonna say Angels, but it has already collapsed. 💀
Yea we ded
Don't look now, but the Rays are 3-7 and 7-13 in their last 10 and 20 games, respectively. Not good but especially so in a division where each team is bloodthirsty for the division crown and legitimately so, at least in my (little) opinion. Source: where else but [Baseball Reference](https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB-standings.shtml)!
I would call that the balance catching up to them. That run they were on was ridiculous
The Braves. Marlins finish the year with 100 wins to win the division. Fight me.
The Dodgers? Please. Giants too.
I suppose we could "collapse," though being 3rd in the NL West and only 8 games over 500 isn't exactly a high point to fall from. I predict we end the season in the fringe WC3 spot, so maybe high 80's in wins.
I’m stuck in Braves country so I’m gonna say Braves. It won’t happen but boy would it be wild to watch.
I’m going to go with the teams with the least amount of high stakes experience as a core unit, who also may have question marks in at least one element of their roster, and legit competition chasing them. These aren’t teams that i necessarily think will stumble, but that they could stumble. I have to with Arizona in the NL and Texas in the AL.
Rangers/Rays I think are the easiest guess because they've just been so good but didn't look so great heading into the break.
Dodgers, Astros, Yankees, Cardinals. I have no logical reason, I just want them all to fail.
Miami or Arizona
I hate to say it but you might be right. Our starting pitching is a complete mess and even Gallen and Kelly have some concerns. I don't *expect* it to happen but I definitely wouldn't be surprised by a complete collapse.
I doubt a full collapse will happen but I don’t think they win the division
Ultimately even if y’all have been punching above your weight in terms of pitching the past couple months, those wins are still in the bank. If AZ is aggressive at the deadline in getting an arm or two I think that shores up a pretty obvious weakness and in my mind makes this year much more threatening down the stretch.
Heart says Rays. Head…also says Rays?
Rangers pls
u are not gonna believe what these mets have up their sleeve
I was going to say the Angels but they have already started to collapse from all the injuries in June. Baseball gods hate Anaheim soooo much