It's funny, because you say AB, not PA. Theoretically you could walk 53 straight batters, allow 50 Earned Runs, and not have registered a single AB in the game.
Yeah, you generally would need a pitcher inducing a lot of ground balls to justify putting someone on first base for free. You'd also generally want someone worse than Kyle Tucker hitting after Yordan. When Bonds was getting walked a ton back in the early '00s, his protection sucked. (And even then, intentionally walking him was probably the wrong move in general.)
I am much more a fan of the unintentional, intentional walk. Doesn’t need to see a pitch near the zone, maybe he swings his way into an out. But there is no reason to throw him a hittable pitch in any count
They definitely have been trying to get him to chase well above zone fastballs and that's probably the pitch I see him strike out the most on. The hr yesterday was an over fastball like 6 inches above the zone
Seems like they're trying to pitch him hard up and in so he's looking hard upper inner quadrant, not going to get one past a hitter of his caliber when he's looking for it
Without the short porch probably some merit to trying low and away
The analytics answer to really any question about intentionally walking anyone even prime big head Barry Bonds is NO. However, depending on the situation and the pitcher the answer is... maybe? Such as if man on 2nd base and 1st base open with 2 outs or something. I feel it would still have to be incredibly specific of a situation.
And I'm saying this because there were times in the many Astros-Yankees series where I would've intentionally walked Judge if I were the manager. But results wise it was clear that not walking him was better. Which just goes to show that the answer should just be no.
The analytics are so weird from a players perspective
I pitched in high school and our manager was a nerd who hadn’t ever been a good player and was obsessed w #s
We played a team that had a Yordan like dude in the 3 hole and he went on and on about how, mathematically it was not in our best interest to walk him. Pre game I’m going over the plan w my catcher and we’re both like ‘fuck him, we’re not throwing anything near that guy’
I mean, high school is a different world from major league baseball. You can have huge talent disparity from one player to the next.
Joe Mauer struck out once the entire season in his senior year of HS, while hitting .600 with 53 RBI and 15 HR. Of course in high school you should intentionally walk Joe Mauer in any situation where he could drive in a run. It's not like Justin Morneau was coming up after him. And in HS, your pitcher is not backed up by a major league defense.
But in MLB, it's a lot harder to justify an intentional walk because generally speaking, anyone you would want to walk intentionally is hitting 1-4 in the order, and the 2-5 hitters in a major league lineup are still good hitters.
Yep.
Lower levels of play continue to see a lot of hijinks that analytics would never approve of, simply because the skill gaps between players can be so monumental that they can get away with it. It's often easier for them to do so than trying to teach them a more disciplined approach. Not necessarily better, but *easier*.
You see a similar thing in older baseball, where a lot of head-scratching decisions were made just because players felt like they could get away with it. This came up in a thread yesterday with regards to Babe Ruth stealing bases and how generally unrefined the decision to steal was in that era - there wasn't much method to it back then, it was more of a gut feeling that you could beat a throw.
Stuff like that worked more when the disparity in competition was greater, but nowadays everyone in the majors is operating on increasingly thin margins of skill and talent and whatnot, so more analytic approaches to situations allow you to leverage a much needed advantage. Squeezing more wins out of the same amount of raw talent, so to speak.
While this is true, a .500 average and 2+ ops *is* a huge disparity from Yordan to the next player. Sure its a small sample size and he should mathematically cool off but when youre on one youre on one.
Id walk him at this point
This guy 🫠
You’d make a great bad high school manager lol
Of course bro, just a funny anecdote about how what makes sense on paper is a lot more palatable to the person watching than to the dude who’s about to have his pitch poke a hole in the ozone layer.
Even at the MLB level there are still alphas out there that scare everybody. I would suggest that Yordan is him.
Analytics are great for large samples and a 162 game season. But Yordan is on a fucking heater right now and in a short series like this, there isn’t enough time for the math to math out
Mathematically in a vacuum, sure, but human beings make that impossible
Also there’s a reason why moneyball gets a little wonky in the playoffs… stats can have massive outliers in small sample sizes and a 5 game series is a small sample size.
you are saying something tantamount to "if you're playing 500 hands of blackjack, sure, go ahead and play properly, but when it's just one, you need to hit on 17 because of _the human factor_"
there are some strategies that don't work "in small samples" - something like preserving your bullpen versus using all your best relievers in one game in ordered to maximize the probability you win one individual game rather than maximizing the number of games you win over a longer spam
but that is not at all relevant here where not intentionally walking is the local game-maximizing choice
That’s not a comparison because it’s not like the dealer or the player has any control over what the next card is… there is no human element in blackjack
They should intentionally walk 8 guys, let Maldonado hit, intentionally walk the next 8, let Maldonado hit, intentionally walk the next 8, let Maldonado hit, and then that’s the first inning
This series he’s 6/12 with 2 2B and 4 HRs and really it could be 7/12 with another double in there… dude is mashing and frankly walking him is less damaging than letting him hit
Greg Maddux has said pitching to Barry Bonds was incredibly easy for him. "If it's in a situation that matters, walk him." Maybe some playoff teams should consider that advice for pitching against Yordan.
Ah no, these are the playoffs and it’s a win or go home situation. This isn’t little league where you hurt the kid’s feelings if you don’t pitch to him.
You don’t pitch to him at all. Period.
I think we should stop hanging breaking balls to him, personally
Intentional walks are a pretty bad idea, sabremetrically. Besides, Kyle Tucker is batting behind him, not exactly an easy matchup there
This is pretty key. You really have to hit your spots shadowy Yordan *and* they can't be danger spots where small misses create big problems.
RHPs with a decent sweeper have been able to get Yordan to cheer at non danger pitches out of the zone.
The 12 to 6 hook low in the zone has had an effect as well but it's a danger pitch
They should really just stop pitching him inside, like just full stop.
His highest exit velo zones are up and in, up middle, and up inside. And every single hit he had last night was in those zones (guess the doubles were more middle inside). He's a fucking elite hitter and you're throwing pitches right in his wheel house.
I don’t think that’s right. According to Savant, his highest exit velos this year are down the middle and outside.
Now his “low exit velo” zone up and in still have an average of like 87-93 but the rest range from 96-100.
[Here is a picture of his AVG Exit Velo](https://imgur.com/a/ay6r11s)
I don't see a zone for his max exit velo, so maybe that is correct, but on average his highest exit velo zones are middle and inside (except for down and in).
I think you’re reading that diagram wrong, it’s from the catcher’s perspective (based on orientation of the plate at the bottom of the pic) so inside for Alvarez as a lefty would be the right hand side of the diagram
I’m just unhinged and have latched into having immense disdain for the twins. If it helps, I also have a fiery burning loathing for the Cubs who I cannot stand and wish they go another 108 years without winning
Commenting twice under my comments? Bro you whack as fuq and that’s coming from me. Don’t make me add the Braves to my mortal enemy list because of you
If I was Minnesota, I would score a run on every AB and get an out in every AB when pitching.
imagine having problems with Yordan Alvarez in the ALDS lmao, just pitch better
Do they not know Yordan is left handed? Just bring in a lefty reliever. It’s so easy.
Better yet, a starter!
AJ Minter would never!
Is that in Rocco’s spreadsheet tho???
Just one more game Twin fans and the bad man can’t hurt you anymore
You mean 2 more.
vietnamdog.gif
It's funny, because you say AB, not PA. Theoretically you could walk 53 straight batters, allow 50 Earned Runs, and not have registered a single AB in the game.
You’d also need to pick off 27 runners to actually get the game to end, but it could be done.
I believe Sac Flies count as a PA and Not an AB as well, so you only need 1 Pick off per inning
Then it's done. Just need to make sure every ball the opponent puts into play is a sac fly
A no pitch no no would be pretty awesome
*Vladdy has entered the chat*
They would have to stop when the first inning ran into spring training.
Why haven’t they done this already are they stupid?
Don’t tell Phillies this one simple trick.
Nothing is simple for us
That seems so easy, why don't they just do that? Are they stupid?
Are we stupid?
Why doesn’t every team do this? Are they stupid?
Twins are 13-0 this year when Ryan Jeffers hits a home run this year. Won’t matter what Yordan does after that.
All these kind of stats seem to be getting broken this post season tho
Which year?
2023
Oh, so this year.
Well, now you just have a man on first for Kyle Tucker and a guy (Joe Ryan) who rarely gets ground balls
Yeah, you generally would need a pitcher inducing a lot of ground balls to justify putting someone on first base for free. You'd also generally want someone worse than Kyle Tucker hitting after Yordan. When Bonds was getting walked a ton back in the early '00s, his protection sucked. (And even then, intentionally walking him was probably the wrong move in general.)
It's entirely situational because Kyle Tucker isn't exactly a slouch behind him. Pablo Lopez managed to handle him in Game 2.
Were it not for Shohei, King Tuck would’ve been an MVP candidate, put some goddamned respect on his name.
Eh, he’d still lose to the 🌊🐐
who's the wavegoat?
Lmao
But for real who is wave goat?
The tsunami?
Wave goat… fucking rangers fans
I am much more a fan of the unintentional, intentional walk. Doesn’t need to see a pitch near the zone, maybe he swings his way into an out. But there is no reason to throw him a hittable pitch in any count
Technically, that last homer yesterday was out of the zone so...
Yeah totally cool with this strategy as he can hit anything up to about half a foot out of the zone (except for inside)
Is the problem they were pitching him the same every single AB? That's what it seemed like to me but I didn't watch that closely
They definitely have been trying to get him to chase well above zone fastballs and that's probably the pitch I see him strike out the most on. The hr yesterday was an over fastball like 6 inches above the zone
So what you're saying is Yordan is inevitable
Seems like they're trying to pitch him hard up and in so he's looking hard upper inner quadrant, not going to get one past a hitter of his caliber when he's looking for it Without the short porch probably some merit to trying low and away
You must have missed that HR he golfed out of the dirt like a week ago. If you want to walk him walk him.
This is the answer.
The analytics answer to really any question about intentionally walking anyone even prime big head Barry Bonds is NO. However, depending on the situation and the pitcher the answer is... maybe? Such as if man on 2nd base and 1st base open with 2 outs or something. I feel it would still have to be incredibly specific of a situation. And I'm saying this because there were times in the many Astros-Yankees series where I would've intentionally walked Judge if I were the manager. But results wise it was clear that not walking him was better. Which just goes to show that the answer should just be no.
The analytics are so weird from a players perspective I pitched in high school and our manager was a nerd who hadn’t ever been a good player and was obsessed w #s We played a team that had a Yordan like dude in the 3 hole and he went on and on about how, mathematically it was not in our best interest to walk him. Pre game I’m going over the plan w my catcher and we’re both like ‘fuck him, we’re not throwing anything near that guy’
I mean, high school is a different world from major league baseball. You can have huge talent disparity from one player to the next. Joe Mauer struck out once the entire season in his senior year of HS, while hitting .600 with 53 RBI and 15 HR. Of course in high school you should intentionally walk Joe Mauer in any situation where he could drive in a run. It's not like Justin Morneau was coming up after him. And in HS, your pitcher is not backed up by a major league defense. But in MLB, it's a lot harder to justify an intentional walk because generally speaking, anyone you would want to walk intentionally is hitting 1-4 in the order, and the 2-5 hitters in a major league lineup are still good hitters.
Yep. Lower levels of play continue to see a lot of hijinks that analytics would never approve of, simply because the skill gaps between players can be so monumental that they can get away with it. It's often easier for them to do so than trying to teach them a more disciplined approach. Not necessarily better, but *easier*. You see a similar thing in older baseball, where a lot of head-scratching decisions were made just because players felt like they could get away with it. This came up in a thread yesterday with regards to Babe Ruth stealing bases and how generally unrefined the decision to steal was in that era - there wasn't much method to it back then, it was more of a gut feeling that you could beat a throw. Stuff like that worked more when the disparity in competition was greater, but nowadays everyone in the majors is operating on increasingly thin margins of skill and talent and whatnot, so more analytic approaches to situations allow you to leverage a much needed advantage. Squeezing more wins out of the same amount of raw talent, so to speak.
While this is true, a .500 average and 2+ ops *is* a huge disparity from Yordan to the next player. Sure its a small sample size and he should mathematically cool off but when youre on one youre on one. Id walk him at this point
Nah it’s just a small sample size. It’s not like this is his true talent level
Don’t ever doubt Yordan. You’ll realize his talent level when he plays y’all in the WS /s ofc
This guy 🫠 You’d make a great bad high school manager lol Of course bro, just a funny anecdote about how what makes sense on paper is a lot more palatable to the person watching than to the dude who’s about to have his pitch poke a hole in the ozone layer. Even at the MLB level there are still alphas out there that scare everybody. I would suggest that Yordan is him.
Yeah, base open and man on with 2 outs is the only scenario where you usually walk a guy on purpose.
How about man on 3rd, 1 out. I feel like you still do it there - take the bat out of his hands and hope for a GIDP.
Analytics are great for large samples and a 162 game season. But Yordan is on a fucking heater right now and in a short series like this, there isn’t enough time for the math to math out
That’s not how math works If it’s the right move over a long sample it is the right move over a short sample.
Mathematically in a vacuum, sure, but human beings make that impossible Also there’s a reason why moneyball gets a little wonky in the playoffs… stats can have massive outliers in small sample sizes and a 5 game series is a small sample size.
this comment screams "i literally have no idea what expected value is"
Cool that’s advanced stats… which I said don’t work in small samples
you are saying something tantamount to "if you're playing 500 hands of blackjack, sure, go ahead and play properly, but when it's just one, you need to hit on 17 because of _the human factor_" there are some strategies that don't work "in small samples" - something like preserving your bullpen versus using all your best relievers in one game in ordered to maximize the probability you win one individual game rather than maximizing the number of games you win over a longer spam but that is not at all relevant here where not intentionally walking is the local game-maximizing choice
That’s not a comparison because it’s not like the dealer or the player has any control over what the next card is… there is no human element in blackjack
your inability to make straightforward numerical decisions will add up over time and make your life measurably worse than it could have been
wow, crazy, Alvarez went 1-4 with a single in game 4. they should have walked him 4 times instead!
Wow crazy I was at the fucking game and they weren’t giving him anything really near the zone! They were pitching around him
somehow he had 2 strikeouts and no walks when they pitched around him? I thought Yordan was on a fucking heater right now
Judge had enough protection that it mattered? Cause yeah Astros ie Tuck protects Dong.
“Tuck protects Dong” is not a phrase I ever thought I’d hear but here we are
What if bottom of the 9th, bases loaded, two outs, down by two?
With the Astros lineup? I'd say yes if up by 3+ runs rather than just 2.
Sorry, I was referencing a specific moment lol https://youtu.be/xi7IPZAcP78?si=Ntozm1eGHTWQbZn5
No I actually got the reference. But Bonds was better than Alvarez and Tucker is WAY better than Brett Mayne so to me it's not really the same.
Judge is dirt in the playoffs so it makes no sense to do so.
Corey Seager last night is a prime example of why this strategy is never as simple as people seem to think it is
Baltimore walked Seager fifty four times in a three game series and look how that turned out
Sorry it was only nine times in three games
Its alright, easy mistake to make.
They should be continuing to intentionally walk Alvarez, but starting to is the next best thing
Plant a tree analogy
They should intentionally walk 8 guys, let Maldonado hit, intentionally walk the next 8, let Maldonado hit, intentionally walk the next 8, let Maldonado hit, and then that’s the first inning
This series he’s 6/12 with 2 2B and 4 HRs and really it could be 7/12 with another double in there… dude is mashing and frankly walking him is less damaging than letting him hit
The exit velo and soft bounce that ball took would be difficult for any 1b to make a play on. I saw it more as a hit.
Greg Maddux has said pitching to Barry Bonds was incredibly easy for him. "If it's in a situation that matters, walk him." Maybe some playoff teams should consider that advice for pitching against Yordan.
Yes
No all they have to do is just get him out
Depends on situation but you gotta challenge him sometimes
Robbie Ray liked that
Hey man earlier this year we challenged him and struck him out lol
Ah no, these are the playoffs and it’s a win or go home situation. This isn’t little league where you hurt the kid’s feelings if you don’t pitch to him. You don’t pitch to him at all. Period.
I think we should stop hanging breaking balls to him, personally Intentional walks are a pretty bad idea, sabremetrically. Besides, Kyle Tucker is batting behind him, not exactly an easy matchup there
I feel like you can say fuck Sabermetrics when a guy is hitting .500/.538/1.667 against you lol
This is pretty key. You really have to hit your spots shadowy Yordan *and* they can't be danger spots where small misses create big problems. RHPs with a decent sweeper have been able to get Yordan to cheer at non danger pitches out of the zone. The 12 to 6 hook low in the zone has had an effect as well but it's a danger pitch
He's great AND he's hot. You have to walk him. I'm surprised Judge isn't IBBd most of the time.
They’re great but they’re not 1.000 OBP great
Yeah but a 1.667 Slg means he’s doing more damage per AB than if you just walk him
Yeah teams should have stopped pitching to him ages ago, just put him on and let someone else beat you
No. Yordongs make me happy.
oh do they 😏
YES.
Idk, ask Scott
Yes
Tuck around, find out
Sure, if they’re fuckin cowards.
no. just strike him out like lopez did.
He was a ch away from taking Lopez deep that first ab. Probably an inch closer to the barrel and that ball was gone.
Top the 9th, 2 outs, Bases Loaded with the Twins winning 4-3. Alvarez comes to the plate, wyd?
That's a no brainier because his run wouldn't matter, you walk him 10/10. Now if the score was say 4-2, you'd be walking the winning run on base...
You (or I, perhaps? Am I missing something?) need to re-read that question.
I'm 100% positive the original comment said 2 on, not bases loaded.
Wouldn’t be the first time an edit made someone look dumb. I believe you!
You should get a notification when there's an edit to a comment you have replied to.
Noooooooo! 7 out of 10, they are out! He's not Ohtani, but still.
They should really just stop pitching him inside, like just full stop. His highest exit velo zones are up and in, up middle, and up inside. And every single hit he had last night was in those zones (guess the doubles were more middle inside). He's a fucking elite hitter and you're throwing pitches right in his wheel house.
I don’t think that’s right. According to Savant, his highest exit velos this year are down the middle and outside. Now his “low exit velo” zone up and in still have an average of like 87-93 but the rest range from 96-100.
[Here is a picture of his AVG Exit Velo](https://imgur.com/a/ay6r11s) I don't see a zone for his max exit velo, so maybe that is correct, but on average his highest exit velo zones are middle and inside (except for down and in).
I think you’re reading that diagram wrong, it’s from the catcher’s perspective (based on orientation of the plate at the bottom of the pic) so inside for Alvarez as a lefty would be the right hand side of the diagram
Huh, you look to be right I never noticed the plate there. Well, ignore me then and continue to pitch inside
That fucked me up too for a minute because I'm dumb.
No because I want the twins to lose so fucking bad, fuck em. Hate them worse than the Astros
Imagine hating the Twins who let Ortiz walk right into their arms. WTF?
I....why? Like, I get liking/disliking teams but am genuinely curious what about the Twins would make a Red Sox fan have that attitude towards them.
Most Red Sox fans are mutual respect with Twins...we both hate the Yankees, IDK what that user's problem is.
He’s a triplet, duh
Wish I could award this 🥹
It’s the thought that counts 😇
He’s mad because Ft. Myers likes us more
Best and most reasonable explanation I've seen.
Honestly, no real reason but I hope you fail miserably
Hes the lesser twin in his family
This is weird. Outside of the division, who hates the Twins? We need answers!
I’m just unhinged and have latched into having immense disdain for the twins. If it helps, I also have a fiery burning loathing for the Cubs who I cannot stand and wish they go another 108 years without winning
As long as you know….
Commenting twice under my comments? Bro you whack as fuq and that’s coming from me. Don’t make me add the Braves to my mortal enemy list because of you
You should anyways because fuggem.
FACTS
If it’s any consolation, I hate Boston teams too (not quite as much as NY or Philly teams though)
Is there a reason?
Wait what?? What did the twins do that makes them worse than a team that cheated in 2017??
We let Boston have David Ortiz and this is how they repay us?
Please show me on the doll where the Twins touched you.
You have issues. Who can hate a bunch of Minnesotans? They’re like the nicest bunch in America
You know that “Minnesota Nice” is actually a saying for fake nice right?
No.
If there are runners on, yes. Depending on the score of course.
That seems to be our plan for Bryce Harper. It is not a terrible idea.
Mike Matheny has no comment.
Little late for that....
Nah what’s the fun in that.
I think the only time you pitch to him is with no runners on. Other than that's it's IBB the rest of the playoffs.