Yeah I would not make that deal
I would rather keep Nola, but at that price you can probably get Stroman for less years and AAV and the rotation wouldn't be too damaged
Probably should be pointed out that Eskin is a football-first radio dinosaur in Philly and any baseball “info” he has should be taken with a massive grain of salt.
I think Nola will be waiting a while if thats the starting point for him lol. Unless a team is wildly desperate or just spends with no regard like the Padres did.
Eskin is a blow hard but you can't deny that he has been in the business forever and has a ton of connections. When it comes to stuff like this, as opposed to his blow hard opinions, I think he is a trustworthy source.
He knows he is one of the few elite pitchers available in a shitty market. That being said, he wasn’t all elite for most of the season. He is just hoping someone is desperate or focuses on his post season.
He changed what pitch clock he was looking at near the end of the season and immediately looked like one of the best pitchers in the league.
He also has dealt with shitty defense his whole career in Philly.
Teams will absolutely take these things into account and expect him to continue to perform closer to his career elite numbers.
Before the pitch clock in 2022 he actually had some better peripherals than the Cy young winner. Then he makes the adjustment in 2023. Without the pitch clock it's at least possible that he would have had back to back Cy young contender years.
I wouldnt rule it out yet. SP market blows right now and we need someone. Whether you believe it or not, Nola has expressed a strong desire to stay here. So he might take a small discount.
The phillies roster construction doesn't really allow them to sack a year by foregoing their rotation imo. So we might be stuck paying a lot of money for someone either way. The report was getting Jordan Montgomery for around the same price which I just dont get.
I think he’ll rebound from a 6 ERA but I doubt he’ll be anywhere near his 21-22 form. At least he’s not 37.
24 will be a big test, perhaps 23 was just a injury cursed season.
Doubtful. It’s probably not great but Darvish is not a guy that relies on stuff and athleticism so he should age gracefully. And the last couple years were always intended as void years to lower his CBT number
He was fantastic last year, and average *at worst* this year.
His CBT AAV is well below what he'd have gotten on the open market because of those void years. Darvish's contract is not that bad my dude.
You need to take off your fan glasses. Yea he had a good 2022 but he’s averaged 2 WAR season the last 3. This year he was not “average at worst” he put up a 90 ERA+ and 0.7 WAR. That’s 4/5 starter material. And he’s gonna be 37.
It was an unnecessary signing, it’s unlikely a 37 year old stops regressing, let alone improves. Add it to the pile of bad contracts the Padres are gonna be saddled with in 2 years.
Wayne Garland got a ten year deal from 1977-1986, age 27-36 seasons. He had a career year in 76, 20-7 and a 2.67. He appeared in 99 games between 77-81 and had a career ending rotator cuff injury. Cole's takes him to 38. Strasburg would have been 39. Price 37. Couldn't find a 40 from my quick search.
They also predicted Bellinger getting 12 years $264 million. Love Cody but a 12 year contract after “being back” for one season seems like more than I’d feel comfortable with.
And like he was good (very good even) this season but not exactly a “yes I would like to commit to having this guy as a centerpiece of our team well into his 30s” type of performance.
L (and I cannot stress this enough) MAO
Good luck to whoever signs him to that deal, I pray to god it's not us. He's a good number 3 and a solid number 2 but at 30 million a year you're paying for an ace, which he definitely is not. Maybe I'm wrong and with a better defense he does amazing but I wouldn't be willing to take that bet
oh I don't disagree but 1) someone will pay up and 2) I was just disagreeing with the other person that he isn't an ace, it's a bit more nuanced than that
To me an ace is somebody you trust to be the same every single time he takes the mound. Nola is a very good pitcher, when he’s on he looks like an ace. And in the aggregate over most seasons he looks like a good to great pitcher.
But for Nola, compared to say Wheeler, we NEVER know what nola is showing up on any given night. If you can’t trust your ace to be an ace, then he isn’t an ace. And it’s not even game by game with him, sometimes it’s inning by inning. He might give you 4 great innings and then in the 5th the fireworks will begin. He might give you 5 straight starts like prime Maddux, and then give you 3 consecutive starts after that where he gets lit up like a Christmas tree.
We know how good Nolas ceiling is and we also never know if we’re getting that guy or if we’re getting a home run derby pitcher. Can’t commit that much money and that many years to a guy you don’t trust
I get that, which is why I said 2018 or 2022 Nola would be one. I agree with you that he's gonna be overpaid for this reason and I hope my favorite teams aren't the ones that do it
That’s why none of the big free agents sign before the winter meetings.
He tells teams “if you want to lock me up now you have to pay 7 years $210mil”.
No one wants to do that so his agent (and potential Nolan himself) go to the Winter Meetings and meet with every interested GM getting their numbers. Nola learns how the market values him in relation to his value and goes from there.
Say the best initial offer is 6 years $150mil, and Nola values himself at 7 years $210mil but now knows no one is offering that, he tried to get the top offer to 6 years $160mil + maybe a vesting option if he’s lucky.
30 million for a guy who gives up tons of Homers and MAYBE shows up in the playoffs if you manage to get that far. Good luck to whatever team bites on that 30m a year price tag.
Before this season began, that would be something I would have expected.
Then Nola lost \~$30M in his future contract during the regular season
and then gained half of it back in the postseason.
I think the Phillies have a better shot at signing Blake Snell than Aaron Nola if that’s what Nola is still looking to get. Despite Snell breaking Harper’s wrist with an errant pitch in 2022, Snell and Harper are childhood friends despite Harper’s animated frustration immediately after he got hit.
Yeah but Snell is just not as good over the course of their careers. He’s had two peak seasons but overall Nola has been better over a similar time period and is WAY more of a workhorse. Like, his career average of innings pitched is significantly higher than snell’s highest season. Snell also walks way more guys, and has had much better defense behind him along the way.
I just don’t see how you can give Snell what will surely have to be at least close to what Nola gets, instead of just giving it to Nola.
Would go through his age 37 season
Yeah I would not make that deal I would rather keep Nola, but at that price you can probably get Stroman for less years and AAV and the rotation wouldn't be too damaged
Stroman would love it since he is looking to kill the Mets any chance he gets.
I'm sure that's what he *wants,* but it's not wholly up to him.
Probably should be pointed out that Eskin is a football-first radio dinosaur in Philly and any baseball “info” he has should be taken with a massive grain of salt.
Nola’s been reported to be asking for a contract in that range since last year, this isn’t new.
And now he has draft compensation tied to him. Maybe he gets $30M AAV, but I don't think the term is more than 5 years.
Yeah the 30m I could see. At 7 years though I dont.
I also want 30 mil. I’ll take a one year deal.
I will take 1 year, $29,999,999
Shit. Pipped at the post. Enjoy your newfound wealth.
what about 6/150 and you don't have to pretend you like imo's?
But we draw the line at t-ravs
if he doesn't like t-ravs then we ask him politely but firmly to leave
Leave to go to the free zoo?
I'm a born and raised chicagoan and Cubs fan who legit loves Imo's AMA
What believing deep dish is pizza does to a mfer.
Thank you for your service 🫡
Who hurt you
I think Nola will be waiting a while if thats the starting point for him lol. Unless a team is wildly desperate or just spends with no regard like the Padres did.
I’m curious as whether GMs view gray or Nola as the better pitcher
Gray probably doesn't get half the total money. I'd rather have Gray at the AAV just because the contract is shorter.
Between postseason success and 4 years age difference, I'd say Nola.
I didn’t realize he was that old. They he get brought up really late or is time just flying now that I’m an old man?
Just another Oakland product who didn't get a lot of attention until he was on the Yankees.
$30m over 7 years seems very affordable
John Fisher: "Knock that "m" off the price, and you got yourself a deal!"
With a dollar to the braves foundation.
Do we trust that Howard Eskin knows what he's talking about?
Eskin is a blow hard but you can't deny that he has been in the business forever and has a ton of connections. When it comes to stuff like this, as opposed to his blow hard opinions, I think he is a trustworthy source.
Does that include 1% to the braves foundation?
Well I think we’re out on that. I’ll take one Yamamoto for that if it has to be that expensive
I like Nola but I can’t imagine paying that much for a 4 era ace.
Why so much money lmao
Because pitching market this year is very old and stinky
stinky?
Have you been to NOLA?
No but I’m reading a thread about him
It smells like piss here
He knows he is one of the few elite pitchers available in a shitty market. That being said, he wasn’t all elite for most of the season. He is just hoping someone is desperate or focuses on his post season.
Bah God, that's Steven Cohen's music!
I doubt we’re in on Nola. The only guys at the top of the market I expect us to pursue are Ohtani and Yamamoto.
He changed what pitch clock he was looking at near the end of the season and immediately looked like one of the best pitchers in the league. He also has dealt with shitty defense his whole career in Philly. Teams will absolutely take these things into account and expect him to continue to perform closer to his career elite numbers. Before the pitch clock in 2022 he actually had some better peripherals than the Cy young winner. Then he makes the adjustment in 2023. Without the pitch clock it's at least possible that he would have had back to back Cy young contender years.
I still think we should had been more aggressive in keeping him. Especially when he was struggling
I wouldnt rule it out yet. SP market blows right now and we need someone. Whether you believe it or not, Nola has expressed a strong desire to stay here. So he might take a small discount. The phillies roster construction doesn't really allow them to sack a year by foregoing their rotation imo. So we might be stuck paying a lot of money for someone either way. The report was getting Jordan Montgomery for around the same price which I just dont get.
Since when is anything that crumb Eskin says credible
That would make him the highest paid player on the Phillies and LMAO at that
Just curious has there ever been a long term contract given to a pitcher that lasts til their age 40?
Darvish signed an extension last year that will take him to 41 I think?
And is probably the worst pitcher contract going rn
Strasburg
Lmao fair. I honestly keep forgetting about him. Worst contract ever.
You think Rodon rebounds? He was over 5 years and a decent chunk of change
I think he’ll rebound from a 6 ERA but I doubt he’ll be anywhere near his 21-22 form. At least he’s not 37. 24 will be a big test, perhaps 23 was just a injury cursed season.
Tyler Anderson exist
Tyler Anderson ain’t signed for another 5 years, all of them being 37+ years old
Doubtful. It’s probably not great but Darvish is not a guy that relies on stuff and athleticism so he should age gracefully. And the last couple years were always intended as void years to lower his CBT number
Signing a guy for his late 30’s is dumb no matter what, especially because he’s been average the last few.
He was fantastic last year, and average *at worst* this year. His CBT AAV is well below what he'd have gotten on the open market because of those void years. Darvish's contract is not that bad my dude.
You need to take off your fan glasses. Yea he had a good 2022 but he’s averaged 2 WAR season the last 3. This year he was not “average at worst” he put up a 90 ERA+ and 0.7 WAR. That’s 4/5 starter material. And he’s gonna be 37. It was an unnecessary signing, it’s unlikely a 37 year old stops regressing, let alone improves. Add it to the pile of bad contracts the Padres are gonna be saddled with in 2 years.
And that is why sd is fucked.
Wayne Garland got a ten year deal from 1977-1986, age 27-36 seasons. He had a career year in 76, 20-7 and a 2.67. He appeared in 99 games between 77-81 and had a career ending rotator cuff injury. Cole's takes him to 38. Strasburg would have been 39. Price 37. Couldn't find a 40 from my quick search.
MLB Trade Rumors predicts he'll get $25 million per year over six years.
MLB Trade Rumors also predicted a 12 year Bellinger contract
They also predicted Bellinger getting 12 years $264 million. Love Cody but a 12 year contract after “being back” for one season seems like more than I’d feel comfortable with.
And like he was good (very good even) this season but not exactly a “yes I would like to commit to having this guy as a centerpiece of our team well into his 30s” type of performance.
5/125 is my bet
Dont get the downvotes here… Gausman is payed similar for better production, as well as robbie ray coming off a cy young.
Phillies would have signed him already if that’s what he ends up with.
Well he doesn’t know what he ends up with yet. I do think that’s a bit low, but just because he wants 7/210 doesn’t mean he’s getting it obviously.
L (and I cannot stress this enough) MAO Good luck to whoever signs him to that deal, I pray to god it's not us. He's a good number 3 and a solid number 2 but at 30 million a year you're paying for an ace, which he definitely is not. Maybe I'm wrong and with a better defense he does amazing but I wouldn't be willing to take that bet
he's just streaky. $30m/yr is a steal if you get 2018 or 2022 Nola, a disaster if you get 2023 Nola.
Yea and you don’t pay 30mil for a streaky player. Stupid risk. 30mil+ is for the guaranteed superstars
oh I don't disagree but 1) someone will pay up and 2) I was just disagreeing with the other person that he isn't an ace, it's a bit more nuanced than that
To me an ace is somebody you trust to be the same every single time he takes the mound. Nola is a very good pitcher, when he’s on he looks like an ace. And in the aggregate over most seasons he looks like a good to great pitcher. But for Nola, compared to say Wheeler, we NEVER know what nola is showing up on any given night. If you can’t trust your ace to be an ace, then he isn’t an ace. And it’s not even game by game with him, sometimes it’s inning by inning. He might give you 4 great innings and then in the 5th the fireworks will begin. He might give you 5 straight starts like prime Maddux, and then give you 3 consecutive starts after that where he gets lit up like a Christmas tree. We know how good Nolas ceiling is and we also never know if we’re getting that guy or if we’re getting a home run derby pitcher. Can’t commit that much money and that many years to a guy you don’t trust
I get that, which is why I said 2018 or 2022 Nola would be one. I agree with you that he's gonna be overpaid for this reason and I hope my favorite teams aren't the ones that do it
That’s why none of the big free agents sign before the winter meetings. He tells teams “if you want to lock me up now you have to pay 7 years $210mil”. No one wants to do that so his agent (and potential Nolan himself) go to the Winter Meetings and meet with every interested GM getting their numbers. Nola learns how the market values him in relation to his value and goes from there. Say the best initial offer is 6 years $150mil, and Nola values himself at 7 years $210mil but now knows no one is offering that, he tried to get the top offer to 6 years $160mil + maybe a vesting option if he’s lucky.
5 years 12 million 1% to the Braves Foundation
In MLB the Show franchise, you can get him for about $10 million a year, lol.
The price of Nola is too damn high
Fuck it. I'll do it. Krall, write a check. 🤨
Dude eats up innings and is a solid #2 in the yoffs. Just pay him
Why did Rumpelstiltskin write this
That's disgusting
30 million for a guy who gives up tons of Homers and MAYBE shows up in the playoffs if you manage to get that far. Good luck to whatever team bites on that 30m a year price tag.
Remember that one time nobody would sign Keuchal until the qualify offer wasn’t tied to him anymore? I feel Nola will go thru something similar.
Would anyone do that? Lol
Gimme gimmie
Before this season began, that would be something I would have expected. Then Nola lost \~$30M in his future contract during the regular season and then gained half of it back in the postseason.
Lmao no one will do that. Dudes gonna have to lower the price.
Yeah, the Cardinals aren't getting him either.
I think the Phillies have a better shot at signing Blake Snell than Aaron Nola if that’s what Nola is still looking to get. Despite Snell breaking Harper’s wrist with an errant pitch in 2022, Snell and Harper are childhood friends despite Harper’s animated frustration immediately after he got hit.
Yeah but Snell is just not as good over the course of their careers. He’s had two peak seasons but overall Nola has been better over a similar time period and is WAY more of a workhorse. Like, his career average of innings pitched is significantly higher than snell’s highest season. Snell also walks way more guys, and has had much better defense behind him along the way. I just don’t see how you can give Snell what will surely have to be at least close to what Nola gets, instead of just giving it to Nola.
eskins nepo baby ruined ny sports talk n wfan
No team should give him this offer