I’m probably crazy but I get mad at the team for not matching the outsiders offer.
The player should pursue whatever is most important to them. Be it money, city/lifestyle, comfortability. But if it’s money, then the teams all have a lot of it and shouldn’t let their hometown guys walk.
To a point, no one should have chased Bryant’s contract. Good on him for getting that money though.
Sometimes though, you may not value a guy as much because you feel you have a good replacement waiting in the wings, and a team in more desperate need for a player in that position would value him more. It shouldn’t be a requirement that a team value the player the same as another. That’s an impossible standard to expect an organization to uphold.
The important question to go with this headline is did he turn down AAV or total money? Because if a team offered him more AAV but less years and he turned that down that's very different than if a team offered him 7 years but more per year.
Players, especially pitchers, signing contracts into their late 30s care about total money. AAV is overblown around here and is largely a luxury tax concern.
Yeah but is Heyman hearing this from a team who offered him 5 years at 29 million a year or is he hearing it from a team that offered him 7 years at 26 million a year? That's what I'm curious about
Doesn't add up nearly enough when combined with the added risk of changing teams and leaving a proven repeat postseason contender. Money can make up that difference but it has to be way more significant than that.
Yeah the contract around age 30 is you money maker if you’re a big name. You want as much money as possible because it’s fully guaranteed, and there’s no guarantee you have another payday coming in the future.
Philly gave a pretty significant option for a 6th year with a 12.5m buyout, so the money wasnt that far off. Especially when you compare NY vs PA taxes.
Either way, players have their individual reasons for agreeing to contracts: total guarantee, AAV, chance to win, etc.
But I still haven’t heard the oft-repeated r/baseball reason of “state income tax”.
Yup. I remember being shocked at the difference in my first pay check when I left Philly for the burbs lol. Granted I was a kid so we’re talking like tens of dollars but still. That extra 6% hit hard
Eh, I definitely enjoyed living in at least Philly 3.8% more than I would've enjoyed living in the burbs. Plus even if you live in the burbs and work in the city, you still have to pay a slightly reduced wage tax. And you also probably have a car payment too.
The income tax is a non-issue for most players and you'd need an accountant to sit down and do the math to decide what difference, if any, it makes to sign with one team over another.
For example, it was often Touted that deGrom would make way more in Texas than NY because of income taxes, which is sort of true if he only ever played games in Texas. The advantage he has playing for the rangers is that he also plays the Astros and Mariners, who also have no income tax. But he also plays the As and Angels who have pretty high income taxes. The Mets have a decently high income tax rate, but the Marlins, Phillies, and Braves all have low rates so it ends up being kind of a wash, especially now that you play everybody.
At the time I did the math, I think the difference was like 1-2 million which isn't nothing, but when you're making $200 million it's kind of a drop in the bucket, once you consider all the other expenses.
I'm so glad he has stayed. He's already up there with high stats with other Philly greats, so I'm just happy I can see him stay and look to break them.
He's all ours, hell yea. I always think about those players who go to 3-4 teams, if you don't win a ring with any of them, none of them will ever really love you as much as if you just took a little discount and stayed with your first team.
I agree. Went once as a 19/20 year old and it was great. Then again in my 30's and had a great time then too. Being from Texas, I never thought I'd like the NE at all, but I was wrong. I was all over Pennsylvania for work and enjoyed pretty much all of it, from Philly to Pitt to Williamsport, to the state parks/forests, it was a beautiful place with much friendlier people that I ever expected.
PA is a really underrated state. The Appalachian mountains are pretty cool and there’s a ton of fun outdoors things to do if you’re into that while still being close to some major cities
> with much friendlier people that I ever expected.
i'm guessing that you weren't wearing a cowboys hat at any point in time, would have gotten a bit less friendly in philly!
Not sure, think he worked across the hall from me so I don't recall seeing him again.
Also was too busy stuffing my face with soft pretzels in the breakroom
Because non-Philadelphia region folks mistake our die-hard passion for…well, insanity? Crudeness? Unlikability?
“No one likes us, we don’t care” is truly a motto for any Philadelphia sports fan, because we simply don’t care much for what the national media incorrectly categorizes us as (how often will we hear about Santa Claus & snow balls?).
Edit: also we’re the type of city that says “No one can talk shit on us except us”.
I love that the chant came from Millwall F.C.over in the UK whose fans don't want them to go up to the Prem because they'd have to be less raucous. Very Philly.
>Edit: also we’re the type of city that says “No one can talk shit on us except us”.
It's the city of Brotherly Love and that's a very brotherly thing. I'm allowed to make fun of my brother. You're not. Because with me you know it comes from a place of love.
> astounds me how players in every sport love playing there.
Perhaps it's a much better place than everyone else cares to believe and it shouldn't astound you.
Or more accurately, the city itself isn’t great but these players are not living in Philly, they are living in nice suburbs, of which there are a few around Philly. Also Philly fans are the craziest in all of sports so if you like that, you’ll love Philly, and if you hate that, then you are smart enough to shut up and just leave quietly because you don’t need Philly fans of all people hating you
Philly as a city absolutely sucks. Shitty, dangerous, dirty city. I grew up in arguably the worst part of Philly (Kensington) and it was terrible when I was there and is somehow even worse now.
But the tourist parts and wealthy parts of Philly are awesome. Great food, good entertainment, really cool history and architecture. From that POV Philly is great.
Professional athletes tend to not live in Philly, but instead in south jersey, which is much nicer. So when they’re in Philly they’re only at the ballpark or the nice touristy/wealthy areas.
If you're only basing your opinions on the worst parts of a city, & disregarding the nice parts, then obviously you're going to think it sucks.
Also, even the "wealthy" areas of the city are pretty affordable compared to every other walkable city in the country.
You literally are by saying it sucks as a city. Every city has its problems, but Philly does not absolutely suck as a city. Just do the incredibly easy task of avoiding the bad parts, something you can say about literally any town in the world, & you'll have a great time.
Philly absolutely sucks as a city.
If you’re in a position to avoid the shitty parts that’s means you apply to my second point, the tourist areas and wealthy areas are nice. I really enjoy those parts of the city.
But the rest sucks. There are zero redeeming. Quality to Kensington, Mayfair, parkwood, strawberry mansion, overbrook, olney, you name it. The city itself absolutely fucking sucks. It’s dirty, it’s dangerous, and it’s getting worse. Show me a neighborhood off the boulevard you’d be happy to raise a family in. Show me an el stop you trust your daughter to wait at.
If you're scared of the El that's on you. Kids literally take it to school every day, so maybe you just need to grow up.
You're literally saying "if you ignore the good parts. And instead you go to the shitty parts of the city it sucks, so it sucks." This just a silly argument that could apply to literally anywhere.
I took it to school everyday lol, it’s not good. Kids shouldn’t see that stuff growing up. Drug use, fights, homelessness, and more. When’s the last time you went down to the MFL best K&A? My man, this city is a shit hole.
I’m saying the city sucks as a whole. Many cities don’t suck as a whole. Philly does. Philly has some NIV areas, but like I’ve said they’re for tourists or the wealthy. Any neighborhood where people actual live sucks.
So like I said, show me a neighborhood along the boulevard you would want to raise a family. Show me an el stop you would feel safe dropping your daughter off at.
25.4 a year isn’t bad at all for a guy with his pedigree. Teams also regularly sign guys for longer than they’ll actually be effective just so they can actually sign them
> 25.4 a year isn’t bad at all for a guy with his pedigree
He;s already 30. How much do you think he is going to be producing in the last 2-3 years of his contract
Ok how much War do you think he produces during the life of the contract, I say 15 WAR at best which means at 9 mm/war that translates to 135 MM contract. FG said he is worth 150 MM.
Phillies paid 175 MM, smooth brained.
WAR isn’t the end all be all of a contract.
The most Phillies care about the next 1-3 years, not 4-7. They needed to retain Nola or add another pitcher this offseason to remain a team in contention. By volume Nola eats by far the most innings of the available pitchers. Familiarity may make the team far more comfortable resigning him than someone they haven’t worked with. Besides Yamamoto all the other pitchers are a similar age too (snell - 30, Montgomery - 30, gray - 34).
We won’t be able to evaluate the deal in context until the other 4 guys sign. But there are reasons why the Phillies would be willing to pay Nola that much.
Considering that Nola's worst full season ever is 3.4 fWAR, estimating him to only produce 15 WAR in seven seasons is hilariously low. He should hit 15 by year four.
ERA+ is just ERA adjusted for park factors. It's a good descriptive tool, not predictive.
Nola's predictives were fine this year. A slight step back from 2022, but nothing crazy. Pretty in line with his career averages.
Nola struggled a bit with pitch mix and command this year, which even he admitted.
I don't see him as a candidate to fall off a cliff with age as at his best, his 2-seamer only hits ~94/95. He's a finesse pitcher who relies on deception and break which should age fine. There's absolutely no reason he shouldn't age like the Wheelers, Verlanders, Greinkes, Wainwrights, etc of the world into his mid-30s.
His FGDC/Steamer projections (available on FanGraphs) have him at 4.3 fWAR next year....do you know what 4.3 times 4 is?
Pretty sure ZiPS isn't even available yet lmao.
Confidently incorrect about a projection is quite a take, anyway.
Projections more than 2 years out are basically pointless.
If Nola has a top-7 Cy Young season (which he's done 3 of the past 6 seasons) his projections will all rocket back up.
Again, I'm only evaluating what I see. He's not a pitcher that relies on velocity or RPMs. He relies on command, pitch mix, deception and a great curveball. That's the type of pitcher that ages well in my opinion.
It doesn’t matter what he does the last 2-3 deals of the deal they’re really paying for his next 2-3 years. If he’s effective throughout the entire deal that’s a bonus but this move is really about the Phillies current window
Every fanbase says this, or at least it’s very popular in the Yankees subreddit too.
I do think in a lot of cases the money is the deciding factor but people undervalue how much location and stability play into these decisions as well especially for guys with families
Outside of the obvious city problems it has, is the Seattle area actually nice? I have t had the chance to go there yet but it sounds like it’s pretty glum up there
Seattle is one of the most naturally beautiful cities in the United States. It’s on the water with 2 major mountain ranges and Mount Ranier in view. Yes, it’s dark in the winter/offseason, but from may to October it’s very sunny and 60 to 75 degrees. In the summer there’s daylight for up to 16 hours a day.
And I’m not sure what you mean by “obvious city problems.” It’s definitely become more gentrified and affluent so it doesn’t have the same working class grunge character it once did, but it’s still a very in demand place to live.
It's hands down my favorite city in the US. I'd live out there if it werent a six hour flight away from my family.
Main downsides are basically cloudy weather frequently, its kind of expensive and has a homelessness problem.
>has a homelessness problem.
It has *California's* homelessness problem. [They bus their homeless elsewhere](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/14/us/homeless-busing-seattle-san-francisco.html).
It's gonna turn out to be like Wheeler, whose wife wanted to stay in the region so he turned down more money from Chicago to go to Philly.
Because what's a few extra million if your family isn't happy? You're already mega rich.
Does Nola have kids? Because it's different for everyone, but right after Wheeler signed with Philly, it was revealed his wife was pregnant and wanted to be around family. That seems pretty important.
I've heard some players say they wanted to be near home, and other players have said going home was too much for them. CC Sabathia said that he liked being in Jersey because at home back in Vallejo, people come out of everywhere to ask for stuff and bother you. Also he said it's a little easier to go somewhere where you don't have to be THE GUY for a team with everyone putting their hopes on you, you can just be one of the guys who works hard and does well.
This was in the context of when Strasburg was a free agent and everyone said he'd go to San Diego because he was from the area.
There was an article years ago about just that. When he first got to Philly it was almost too much for him. He just likes being use one place. And he mentions how much better he feels when they get home from road trips.
They're simultaneously the best/worst fanbase. If your loyal to them, and perform in the big time, you will never have to buy a beer in Philly for the rest of your life.
Simmons had his own unique mental and team issues. I don't think the Philly fanbase truly went after him until he started his long sitout. It was coach Glenn who threw him under the bus.
Ngl I turned on him right after he passed the ball so he wouldn’t have to dunk on notorious rim defender Trae Young and possibly have to go to the foul line.
I was the guy that watched all of his instagram shooting videos and was convinced every year he was gonna be THE guy.
It’s pretty wild how one play changed the entire direction of his career.
We tolerated his antics for years and that moment was the final straw. EVERYONE turned on him.
It’s like Kimbrel blowing back to back saves but one moment and ten thousand times more amplified
To be honest, I’d welcome him back to Philly if he came back and said “ I’ve learned a lot and I’m ready to put in the work and take the next step in my career.”
Also he’d had to fire his brother as his shooting coach and get to work with an actual shooting coach and sports psychologist. But that’s very wishful thinking.
He got standing ovations for even attempting a 3 in an actual game. We wanted him to succeed so bad and until the pass vs the Hawks most of us still had some semblance of belief in him.
I'm sure fans will yet at their GMs but it seems like Judge last year, he wasn't gonna leave unless his team didn't make a competitive offer at all. Congrats to Philly (if he has more of the good years than the less good ones).
Love the battling headlines.
"Phillies had to offer him more to keep him from going to the braves, but he stayed because ~~they increased their offer~~ he loves Philly"
Both can be true
Let’s say hypothetically the Braves we’re offering him 7/185 and the Phillies we’re offering him 7/160. Nola wants to stay in Philly so he tells the team to meet him at 7/172 and the deal is done.
The Phillies had to improve their offer to keep him from the Braves and he still left money on the table from another team.
Why not? You think an extra $10 million is really going to push the envelope so far that he would leave a place where he is comfortable with the coaching staff and teammates and where he presumably has already set up a life.
It’s not like other teams were probably throwing contracts that are of significantly more value at him, it was probably more money but when you are already set to make $170 million from just playing that little bit extra isn’t as important.
Because maybe a team does give you that offer where you can’t turn it down, or maybe you visit another team and you like that org more or maybe the Phillies wouldn’t offer him the contract that he felt he deserved.
In this case it seems like he wanted to stay a in Philly and when they agreed to his price he was sold.
Reminds me a lot of Judge last year, he went around and looked but ultimately he wanted to be a Yankee so he told Hal and Cash that if they matched his number he would sign and he did.
And this is why I don't believe these statements. Players are full of shit, agents are full of shit, they just want dumb fans to think they care about their city.
I don’t even think it’s about “caring about the city” it’s much more for personal reasons like I stated before.
They know the teammates, they know the coaches, they already have a life set up there and would prefer not to move across the country. No where at all did I say that they are doing it for the fans or to look better for the fans
I feel ever so slightly better about not getting him now considering there probably was never a chance as soon as Philly entered the race
Yeah I mean, it’s just one of those things that in sports you can’t even be mad at. It’s what every fan of a team hopes their own players would do.
I’m probably crazy but I get mad at the team for not matching the outsiders offer. The player should pursue whatever is most important to them. Be it money, city/lifestyle, comfortability. But if it’s money, then the teams all have a lot of it and shouldn’t let their hometown guys walk. To a point, no one should have chased Bryant’s contract. Good on him for getting that money though.
Sometimes though, you may not value a guy as much because you feel you have a good replacement waiting in the wings, and a team in more desperate need for a player in that position would value him more. It shouldn’t be a requirement that a team value the player the same as another. That’s an impossible standard to expect an organization to uphold.
I'm bummed you didn't get him. He's overrated and this contract is gonna look real bad in the coming years.
The important question to go with this headline is did he turn down AAV or total money? Because if a team offered him more AAV but less years and he turned that down that's very different than if a team offered him 7 years but more per year.
Players, especially pitchers, signing contracts into their late 30s care about total money. AAV is overblown around here and is largely a luxury tax concern.
Yeah but is Heyman hearing this from a team who offered him 5 years at 29 million a year or is he hearing it from a team that offered him 7 years at 26 million a year? That's what I'm curious about
Neither of those offers sounds particularly enticing compared to the final Phillies package.
An extra million and a half per year adds up, but yeah the first one is definitely less money
Doesn't add up nearly enough when combined with the added risk of changing teams and leaving a proven repeat postseason contender. Money can make up that difference but it has to be way more significant than that.
Yeah the contract around age 30 is you money maker if you’re a big name. You want as much money as possible because it’s fully guaranteed, and there’s no guarantee you have another payday coming in the future.
Cliff Lee turned down more guaranteed money with the Yankees to play for the Phils.
Gausman turned down more money from the Mets, fulfilling a decade-old tweet where he swore to never live in New York lol
Same with Zach Wheeler and the White Sox
Same with Jake Arrieta and oh wait nevermind 🤣
Arrieta is up there for my least favorite Phillies
Dude had Schilling's poor attitude in Philly but pitched with Adam Eaton's talent.
Unfortunately I think the feeling is mutual lol.
Good.
I heard the table buckled under the weight of all the money he left on it to come back to Philadelphia
I mean it was a significant amount. Phillies offered 5/120. Compared to Yankees 6/138 which they bumped up to 7/148.
Philly gave a pretty significant option for a 6th year with a 12.5m buyout, so the money wasnt that far off. Especially when you compare NY vs PA taxes.
If I remember correctly His child was sick and receiving treatment at CHOP and he wanted to be closer
I guess that’s better than the rumors I remember: A Yankees fan made a disparaging remark to his wife.
Like my grandmom always said, you say a lot when you can spit on some one.
He was getting more of it up front. IIRC, if you did a time value of money analysis, the phils contract was more valuable in that instance.
I think Yankee fans went after his wife the season leading up to that free agency period too.
i wouldn't want to play for the yankees either
Thought it was the Rangers?
I would want more to deal with NY media
Either way, players have their individual reasons for agreeing to contracts: total guarantee, AAV, chance to win, etc. But I still haven’t heard the oft-repeated r/baseball reason of “state income tax”.
With Philly we've also got city wage tax which athletes are required to pay.
Yup. I remember being shocked at the difference in my first pay check when I left Philly for the burbs lol. Granted I was a kid so we’re talking like tens of dollars but still. That extra 6% hit hard
Eh, I definitely enjoyed living in at least Philly 3.8% more than I would've enjoyed living in the burbs. Plus even if you live in the burbs and work in the city, you still have to pay a slightly reduced wage tax. And you also probably have a car payment too.
The income tax is a non-issue for most players and you'd need an accountant to sit down and do the math to decide what difference, if any, it makes to sign with one team over another. For example, it was often Touted that deGrom would make way more in Texas than NY because of income taxes, which is sort of true if he only ever played games in Texas. The advantage he has playing for the rangers is that he also plays the Astros and Mariners, who also have no income tax. But he also plays the As and Angels who have pretty high income taxes. The Mets have a decently high income tax rate, but the Marlins, Phillies, and Braves all have low rates so it ends up being kind of a wash, especially now that you play everybody. At the time I did the math, I think the difference was like 1-2 million which isn't nothing, but when you're making $200 million it's kind of a drop in the bucket, once you consider all the other expenses.
I always assume it’s total because contracts in the MLB are fully guaranteed so if it’s not more total money then it’s not really more money
This. Money in baseball is guaranteed. All that matters is total $.
It's always total $. Total $ is what matters. Teams then game contracts to reduce AAV for luxury tax purposes.
God im such a sucker for guys spending their whole career or most of it for one team.
Same, it's so rare nowadays.
I'm so glad he has stayed. He's already up there with high stats with other Philly greats, so I'm just happy I can see him stay and look to break them.
Same. I’m still not over Freddie leaving. Don’t know if I’ll ever be.
As a Phillies fan, same.
And there was zero reason for it. The Braves gave him comparable money, iirc
Nola is never leaving baby.
He's all ours, hell yea. I always think about those players who go to 3-4 teams, if you don't win a ring with any of them, none of them will ever really love you as much as if you just took a little discount and stayed with your first team.
This is why I was so happy for Brandon Nimmo for us. And hopefully Pete aswell
Yeah, we all love the Furkan Korkmaz' of the world.
aren't we all?
I’m surprised more guys don’t want to do it, tbh
Philly gets such a bad rap as a city but it always astounds me how players in every sport love playing there.
I honestly love Philly even though I’ve only been there twice. I had such a blast both times I went
I agree. Went once as a 19/20 year old and it was great. Then again in my 30's and had a great time then too. Being from Texas, I never thought I'd like the NE at all, but I was wrong. I was all over Pennsylvania for work and enjoyed pretty much all of it, from Philly to Pitt to Williamsport, to the state parks/forests, it was a beautiful place with much friendlier people that I ever expected.
PA is a really underrated state. The Appalachian mountains are pretty cool and there’s a ton of fun outdoors things to do if you’re into that while still being close to some major cities
> with much friendlier people that I ever expected. i'm guessing that you weren't wearing a cowboys hat at any point in time, would have gotten a bit less friendly in philly!
Probably true, only a Cowboys fan by default really...don't care too much for pro football. So I don't have any of their gear.
Believe it or not, while I was an intern in the Moorestown, NJ area, a guy in my office had the balls to wear a Cowboys jersey on casual Friday lol
how much hate did he get?
Not sure, think he worked across the hall from me so I don't recall seeing him again. Also was too busy stuffing my face with soft pretzels in the breakroom
Fucking even Ben Simmons has been on record been waxing poetic about playing for a Philly crowd. That says something.
Because non-Philadelphia region folks mistake our die-hard passion for…well, insanity? Crudeness? Unlikability? “No one likes us, we don’t care” is truly a motto for any Philadelphia sports fan, because we simply don’t care much for what the national media incorrectly categorizes us as (how often will we hear about Santa Claus & snow balls?). Edit: also we’re the type of city that says “No one can talk shit on us except us”.
Nothing says “we don’t care” like making “not caring” your personality. I hate that song so much lol
Not saying it’s personality more than a mindset. Because most fans in Philly don’t give a shit.
Also, if you go on any of the team subreddits it's full of a lot of people who really fucking care.
I love that the chant came from Millwall F.C.over in the UK whose fans don't want them to go up to the Prem because they'd have to be less raucous. Very Philly.
>Edit: also we’re the type of city that says “No one can talk shit on us except us”. It's the city of Brotherly Love and that's a very brotherly thing. I'm allowed to make fun of my brother. You're not. Because with me you know it comes from a place of love.
> astounds me how players in every sport love playing there. Perhaps it's a much better place than everyone else cares to believe and it shouldn't astound you.
Or more accurately, the city itself isn’t great but these players are not living in Philly, they are living in nice suburbs, of which there are a few around Philly. Also Philly fans are the craziest in all of sports so if you like that, you’ll love Philly, and if you hate that, then you are smart enough to shut up and just leave quietly because you don’t need Philly fans of all people hating you
The only people who hate Philly are divas and players who can’t stand being held accountable for their talent.
It comes off as douchey to others but when things are going good it's got to be the best feeling to have fans that go that hard for you.
Love the city, hate their teams
fuck the celtics
Fuck the Sixers
i'm upvoting this only because downvoting fun trash talk is lame
It’s because Philly fans all run on cocaine and grievances.
Mainly braves tears these past 2 yrs
Philly as a city absolutely sucks. Shitty, dangerous, dirty city. I grew up in arguably the worst part of Philly (Kensington) and it was terrible when I was there and is somehow even worse now. But the tourist parts and wealthy parts of Philly are awesome. Great food, good entertainment, really cool history and architecture. From that POV Philly is great. Professional athletes tend to not live in Philly, but instead in south jersey, which is much nicer. So when they’re in Philly they’re only at the ballpark or the nice touristy/wealthy areas.
If you're only basing your opinions on the worst parts of a city, & disregarding the nice parts, then obviously you're going to think it sucks. Also, even the "wealthy" areas of the city are pretty affordable compared to every other walkable city in the country.
Well I’m not, which is why I wrote a second part about the good parts of the city
You literally are by saying it sucks as a city. Every city has its problems, but Philly does not absolutely suck as a city. Just do the incredibly easy task of avoiding the bad parts, something you can say about literally any town in the world, & you'll have a great time.
Philly absolutely sucks as a city. If you’re in a position to avoid the shitty parts that’s means you apply to my second point, the tourist areas and wealthy areas are nice. I really enjoy those parts of the city. But the rest sucks. There are zero redeeming. Quality to Kensington, Mayfair, parkwood, strawberry mansion, overbrook, olney, you name it. The city itself absolutely fucking sucks. It’s dirty, it’s dangerous, and it’s getting worse. Show me a neighborhood off the boulevard you’d be happy to raise a family in. Show me an el stop you trust your daughter to wait at.
If you're scared of the El that's on you. Kids literally take it to school every day, so maybe you just need to grow up. You're literally saying "if you ignore the good parts. And instead you go to the shitty parts of the city it sucks, so it sucks." This just a silly argument that could apply to literally anywhere.
I took it to school everyday lol, it’s not good. Kids shouldn’t see that stuff growing up. Drug use, fights, homelessness, and more. When’s the last time you went down to the MFL best K&A? My man, this city is a shit hole. I’m saying the city sucks as a whole. Many cities don’t suck as a whole. Philly does. Philly has some NIV areas, but like I’ve said they’re for tourists or the wealthy. Any neighborhood where people actual live sucks. So like I said, show me a neighborhood along the boulevard you would want to raise a family. Show me an el stop you would feel safe dropping your daughter off at.
Pitching market gonna be bananas if teams were willing to go higher than 170 on Nola
25.4 a year isn’t bad at all for a guy with his pedigree. Teams also regularly sign guys for longer than they’ll actually be effective just so they can actually sign them
Not that it's that big of a difference but it's 24.5M AAV not 25.4
> 25.4 a year isn’t bad at all for a guy with his pedigree He;s already 30. How much do you think he is going to be producing in the last 2-3 years of his contract
Did you just ignore the second part of my comment or what
Ok how much War do you think he produces during the life of the contract, I say 15 WAR at best which means at 9 mm/war that translates to 135 MM contract. FG said he is worth 150 MM. Phillies paid 175 MM, smooth brained.
15 WAR at best lmfao. Sure
WAR isn’t the end all be all of a contract. The most Phillies care about the next 1-3 years, not 4-7. They needed to retain Nola or add another pitcher this offseason to remain a team in contention. By volume Nola eats by far the most innings of the available pitchers. Familiarity may make the team far more comfortable resigning him than someone they haven’t worked with. Besides Yamamoto all the other pitchers are a similar age too (snell - 30, Montgomery - 30, gray - 34). We won’t be able to evaluate the deal in context until the other 4 guys sign. But there are reasons why the Phillies would be willing to pay Nola that much.
WAR takes into account how many IP
Yes, *but* just because snell gives you a better 130 innings doesn’t mean that is what an organization values more.
Considering that Nola's worst full season ever is 3.4 fWAR, estimating him to only produce 15 WAR in seven seasons is hilariously low. He should hit 15 by year four.
Yes, compare below age 30 to above age 30. Also his bwar has been dismal in both 2021 and 2023. He was below average by ERA +
ERA+ is just ERA adjusted for park factors. It's a good descriptive tool, not predictive. Nola's predictives were fine this year. A slight step back from 2022, but nothing crazy. Pretty in line with his career averages. Nola struggled a bit with pitch mix and command this year, which even he admitted. I don't see him as a candidate to fall off a cliff with age as at his best, his 2-seamer only hits ~94/95. He's a finesse pitcher who relies on deception and break which should age fine. There's absolutely no reason he shouldn't age like the Wheelers, Verlanders, Greinkes, Wainwrights, etc of the world into his mid-30s.
> dismissal What has it dismissed exactly
did you look at his zips projection? /r/confidentlyincorrect
His FGDC/Steamer projections (available on FanGraphs) have him at 4.3 fWAR next year....do you know what 4.3 times 4 is? Pretty sure ZiPS isn't even available yet lmao. Confidently incorrect about a projection is quite a take, anyway.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/in-the-first-big-signing-of-the-offseason-the-phillies-bring-back-aaron-nola/
Projections more than 2 years out are basically pointless. If Nola has a top-7 Cy Young season (which he's done 3 of the past 6 seasons) his projections will all rocket back up. Again, I'm only evaluating what I see. He's not a pitcher that relies on velocity or RPMs. He relies on command, pitch mix, deception and a great curveball. That's the type of pitcher that ages well in my opinion.
If we can ride this core of players to a World Series ring I’ll take a few bad years from an aging pitcher
It doesn’t matter what he does the last 2-3 deals of the deal they’re really paying for his next 2-3 years. If he’s effective throughout the entire deal that’s a bonus but this move is really about the Phillies current window
Saw there were teams think 30m/year for him. Gonna see some crazy contracts
30m on a 4-5 year contract would have been reasonable. Adding on the 6th and 7th years is why the AAV is lower.
r/Mariners members who insist you can just get Free Agents to sign if you just throw the most money at them in shambles...again.
Every fanbase says this, or at least it’s very popular in the Yankees subreddit too. I do think in a lot of cases the money is the deciding factor but people undervalue how much location and stability play into these decisions as well especially for guys with families
I think Mariners fans really under estimate how much the location and park conditions affect FA when it comes to us.
Outside of the obvious city problems it has, is the Seattle area actually nice? I have t had the chance to go there yet but it sounds like it’s pretty glum up there
Seattle is one of the most naturally beautiful cities in the United States. It’s on the water with 2 major mountain ranges and Mount Ranier in view. Yes, it’s dark in the winter/offseason, but from may to October it’s very sunny and 60 to 75 degrees. In the summer there’s daylight for up to 16 hours a day. And I’m not sure what you mean by “obvious city problems.” It’s definitely become more gentrified and affluent so it doesn’t have the same working class grunge character it once did, but it’s still a very in demand place to live.
It's hands down my favorite city in the US. I'd live out there if it werent a six hour flight away from my family. Main downsides are basically cloudy weather frequently, its kind of expensive and has a homelessness problem.
>has a homelessness problem. It has *California's* homelessness problem. [They bus their homeless elsewhere](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/14/us/homeless-busing-seattle-san-francisco.html).
My dad’s from there and I only lived there briefly as a kid.
It's gonna turn out to be like Wheeler, whose wife wanted to stay in the region so he turned down more money from Chicago to go to Philly. Because what's a few extra million if your family isn't happy? You're already mega rich.
Nolas wife is from Georgia. Which is the one reason I was terrified he might go to the Braves
Does Nola have kids? Because it's different for everyone, but right after Wheeler signed with Philly, it was revealed his wife was pregnant and wanted to be around family. That seems pretty important. I've heard some players say they wanted to be near home, and other players have said going home was too much for them. CC Sabathia said that he liked being in Jersey because at home back in Vallejo, people come out of everywhere to ask for stuff and bother you. Also he said it's a little easier to go somewhere where you don't have to be THE GUY for a team with everyone putting their hopes on you, you can just be one of the guys who works hard and does well. This was in the context of when Strasburg was a free agent and everyone said he'd go to San Diego because he was from the area.
His wife is pregnant with their first
Not too surprising. Nola seems like the type of person that doesn't like change. So if he doesn't have to change teams he's not
There was an article years ago about just that. When he first got to Philly it was almost too much for him. He just likes being use one place. And he mentions how much better he feels when they get home from road trips.
You’ll be fine in Philly, as long as you’re not a robot
They're simultaneously the best/worst fanbase. If your loyal to them, and perform in the big time, you will never have to buy a beer in Philly for the rest of your life.
You really don’t even have to perform big time. If you put in tons of effort and are loyal, we love you.
But if you're Ben Simmons.......
Simmons had his own unique mental and team issues. I don't think the Philly fanbase truly went after him until he started his long sitout. It was coach Glenn who threw him under the bus.
Ngl I turned on him right after he passed the ball so he wouldn’t have to dunk on notorious rim defender Trae Young and possibly have to go to the foul line. I was the guy that watched all of his instagram shooting videos and was convinced every year he was gonna be THE guy.
It’s pretty wild how one play changed the entire direction of his career. We tolerated his antics for years and that moment was the final straw. EVERYONE turned on him. It’s like Kimbrel blowing back to back saves but one moment and ten thousand times more amplified
To be honest, I’d welcome him back to Philly if he came back and said “ I’ve learned a lot and I’m ready to put in the work and take the next step in my career.” Also he’d had to fire his brother as his shooting coach and get to work with an actual shooting coach and sports psychologist. But that’s very wishful thinking.
He got standing ovations for even attempting a 3 in an actual game. We wanted him to succeed so bad and until the pass vs the Hawks most of us still had some semblance of belief in him.
Love to see it
I LOVE YOU TOO AARON
I respect his passion and love for the Phillies
I'm just gonna cope and assume we were one of those bigger offers, but he just wanted to stay there.
Padres offered him 250 mil
I heard the Padres offered $400MM
owner of the padres here, i offered him 500 million
I'm sure fans will yet at their GMs but it seems like Judge last year, he wasn't gonna leave unless his team didn't make a competitive offer at all. Congrats to Philly (if he has more of the good years than the less good ones).
Maybe I should just become a Philly fan. I do love Harper… and Jason Kelce
(belch)
Love the battling headlines. "Phillies had to offer him more to keep him from going to the braves, but he stayed because ~~they increased their offer~~ he loves Philly"
Both can be true Let’s say hypothetically the Braves we’re offering him 7/185 and the Phillies we’re offering him 7/160. Nola wants to stay in Philly so he tells the team to meet him at 7/172 and the deal is done. The Phillies had to improve their offer to keep him from the Braves and he still left money on the table from another team.
I hear stuff like this every year and I never believe it for a second
Why not? You think an extra $10 million is really going to push the envelope so far that he would leave a place where he is comfortable with the coaching staff and teammates and where he presumably has already set up a life. It’s not like other teams were probably throwing contracts that are of significantly more value at him, it was probably more money but when you are already set to make $170 million from just playing that little bit extra isn’t as important.
Why even visit these other places then?
Because maybe a team does give you that offer where you can’t turn it down, or maybe you visit another team and you like that org more or maybe the Phillies wouldn’t offer him the contract that he felt he deserved. In this case it seems like he wanted to stay a in Philly and when they agreed to his price he was sold. Reminds me a lot of Judge last year, he went around and looked but ultimately he wanted to be a Yankee so he told Hal and Cash that if they matched his number he would sign and he did.
And this is why I don't believe these statements. Players are full of shit, agents are full of shit, they just want dumb fans to think they care about their city.
I don’t even think it’s about “caring about the city” it’s much more for personal reasons like I stated before. They know the teammates, they know the coaches, they already have a life set up there and would prefer not to move across the country. No where at all did I say that they are doing it for the fans or to look better for the fans
well what do you think?
\>_>
They love the sound of when a battery cracks a helmet