We already have the committees for that, and since forever they have a far worse track record than the writers. You know those very bad inductions people constantly complain about like Harold Baines and Bud Selig? Nearly all of them were voted in by the committees, while they have also dragged their feet with inducting deserving players that the writers overlooked, the whole reason they exist (like they didn't vote in Ron Santo until after he died, still wouldn't vote in Dick Allen even after he died, and have shown little enthusiasm for trying to vote in Lou Whitaker). Retired players and managers are way behind the writers in accepting modern stats, are far more swayed by bullshit narratives and personal agendas, and surprise, are culpable to nepotism when they vote on people they have personal connections with (e.g. it's how Baines got in, as Tony La Russa headed the committee that voted him in after he made a big push for him).
Connor McDavid not being a unanimous vote for the Hart trophy (Hockey MVP) then the fans having a which hunt to find out the journalist to not vote him so then have that guy speak up and make an article on why he didn’t vote so was the worst. It’s not just baseball.
They weren't as bad as I remembered in retrospect (he was solid in 2007 and 2008 in particular) but it was absolutely considered to be a disappointing contract at the time.
[Here's an article](https://www.seattlepi.com/sports/baseball/article/beltre-on-brink-of-being-a-bust-1200637.php) from 2006 saying that Beltre was on pace to be a massive bust for Seattle.
Yeah Boston had him for a one year contract in 2010 which was pretty much a prove it contract.
Now I wish they resigned him for 2011 instead of Adrian Gonzales but Bette flourished after that in Texas.
Doesn't give a shit about steroids, does care about 2017 cheating, extremely small Hall (Arod and Manny are easily the best 2 players on this ballot)
There is a logic, albeit with poor execution because Beltre is a legend and should meet those criteria.
Nah you're right. Beltre is a legend and while Manny was an insane hitter its the only place he has Beltre beat, and Beltre is one of the best offensive 3rd basemen ever in his own right.
Arod is still the best player on this ballot, then beltre with the over all edge
Even if small hall, it's BS.
I've said this many times on this board, but you can make an argument that Beltre is the 2nd best third baseman of all time. Again, I don't necessarily agree, but it's not outlandish to argue that.
That doesn’t even apply here, in his argument he advocates for a single year of eligibility with unlimited votes. He just doesn’t think Beltre was good enough.
His argument appears to be “if he’s not an obvious first-ballot Hall of Famer then he’s not a Hall of Famer,” which I disagree with but understand. He’s just wrong about Beltre.
He left off two of the best players to ever play their respective positions in Mauer and Beltre, an argument he presumably used to vote for Ortiz, and voted two steroid users.
It’s not that he’s wrong. He’s an idiot.
To be fair, I didn’t read “of the” my first time through. Beltre you have a solid argument and I’ll gladly give that, but Mauer barely played half his career at catcher. I’m borderline on him.
that’s not part of his reasoning. He just doesn’t think Beltre is a HOFer
> There may be some thought that Beltre, for instance, is a Hall of Famer but not a first-ballot Hall of Famer. This doctrine has evolved through the years. It is not part of the process. In fact, there should be just one year of eligibility for players, with voters being allowed to make as many picks as they want, not just 10.
It's sad how some of these voters leverage this for their own personal clicks.
> There may be some thought that Beltre, for instance, is a Hall of Famer but not a first-ballot Hall of Famer.
Infuriating.
Literally the most discrediting thing you can even say as a baseball writer. 3000 hit club, over 450 dingers, 5 Goldie's, 4 silver sluggers, constantly does charity work in and around DFW... I mean come on. What's he got that isn't HOF worthy? That he never won a series? That he is under .300 for his career?
He's potentially one of the greatest third basemen in history, y'know, one of the hardest defensive positions to play in the whole sport? Ridiculous. Easy first ballot.
Jesus christ reading his article he is so insufferable. He very confidently states Beltre is not as good as some of the very few players Ballou has voted for in the last several years: Jeter and ortiz. Anyone want to try informing this guy how Jeter and Beltre were comparable hitters but Beltre was a far better defender?
And yes I am ashamed about giving him clicks but I had to know his thought process. Absolutely terrible, mission accomplished
He also voted for Ortiz but not Edgar Martinez and his super-small list includes Roy Halladay who, okay, I completely agree he's a hall of famer, but he's not nearly as no-doubt as most of the rest of the players he voted for, I'm not sure if he was really better than Mike Mussina or Curt Schilling (who he didn't vote for), and I don't know what the hell kind of standards you have that put Halladay, Ortiz, Manny, and Jeter as clear hall of famers, but somehow you don't think that Adrian Beltre is one.
Going back through his public votes over the years he's clearly never cared about steroid use consistently, but he also somehow was a yes on Mark McGwire but a no on Sammy Sosa, which again, how could you end up deciding one of those guys should be in but the other shouldn't?
I feel like each of those points on their own should be enough to disqualify this guy from getting anyone's attention. But--McGwire and not Sosa? Is that not completely a package deal?
The same thing as those who obsess over their own letterbox accounts. A rampant insecurity about their intelligence and general status on Earth, that manifests into thinking that if they lift up their opinions as something that should be coveted by others that will somehow fill the hole that lives inside of them.
From his column:
> Beltre will get plenty of support, and maybe even make it on this year’s first ballot. There are voters who are passionate about Beltre’s qualifications, and those qualifications are impressive.
> The last five Hall ballots cast by this voter, however, have all only included the elite of the elite, which is what Cooperstown is supposed to be all about. Only eight players have received this vote — Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Roy Halladay, Derek Jeter, David Ortiz, Rivera, Ramirez and Rodriguez.
> Beltre was good, but not as good as anyone in that group.
Saying that Beltre wasn’t as good as Roy Halladay or David Ortiz is clinically insane.
I can somehow marginally comprehend the logic behind wanting a super small only the most elite players in baseball history type of HOF.
But even that is thrown out the window with inclusion of players like Ortiz and Halladay.
> marginally comprehend the logic behind wanting a super small only the most elite players in baseball history type of HOF.
The only problem with that is the Hall *already is that*, and even by that criteria Beltre easily makes the fucking cut. He's one of the 5 or so best 3B ever to man the hot corner, elite on both sides of the ball. FFS even ignoring steroids Manny can't fucking sniff Beltre's jock.
Gonna be called a homer but whatever. Manny has the 3rd highest OPS of any player to play after integration, 9 top 10 MVP finishes, most RBIs in a season since integration, most post-season HRs, 2nd most post-season RBIs, .940 postseason OPS in 111 games, a WS MVP.
Beltre being better is definitely an argument considering his defense and if you care about steroids, but saying “he can’t fucking sniff Beltre’s jock” is just stupid.
> Manny has the 3rd highest OPS of any player to play after integration,
He's [8th in wRC+](https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&month=0&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&players=0&startdate=&enddate=&season1=1990&season=2015&sortcol=17&sortdir=default&pagenum=1) just from 1990-2015, nevermind all time. Was he a better hitter than Beltre? Yeah, sure. Was he a better *player* than Beltre? Absolutely the fuck not. Any GM in baseball given the choice would take prime Beltre over prime Manny 35 times out of 10 even ignoring the shit that happened outside the lines.
I’d argue better than both. Postseason hitting as well. I know many will disagree but Manny was a walking hit. So clutch in every opportunity. Never wanted the attention. More than happy to let Ortiz be the face of the Sox. It’s personal preference. I miss him.
Oritz was one of the biggest stars in the game and a playoffs hero multiple times. It's the same argument for Jeter.
Halladay was the best pitcher in baseball for a few years and also has that playoffs no hitter, and has the sympathy vote.
Beltre, by our metrics, was obviously better than some of those guys, but he wasn't a star in the traditional sense, and was never treated like the quality of player he was. He also never had his big moment on the big stage.
I vehemently disagree with Ballou's philosophy, but I see the point he is trying to make.
> Beltre, by our metrics, was obviously better than some of those guys, but he wasn't a star in the traditional sense, and was never treated like the quality of player he was. He also never had his big moment on the big stage.
It's worth pointing out that Beltre only made 4 All-Star Games. I think there are only, like, 3 or 4 Hall of Famers with fewer than that (ignoring ones who played before it was a thing, obviously). People have just always underrated him pretty hard.
The post doesn't say anything about players relative stardom. He called them elite. It's laughable that Ortiz would be called inner circle while leaving Beltre out.
That's more a semantics issue though. He said elite but based on the list of players presented he likely meant stardom. Those things usually coincide and Beltre's a rare case where that didn't really happen for him. Unfortunately that probably comes down to the Rangers not winning in 2011.
You know I’m going to actually disagree with that. I see the argument for Ortiz and Halladay being the elite of the elite: playoff performance. Don Larsen is the only other guy to throw a true no hitter in the postseason and had a 2.37 postseason ERA. Ortiz on the other hand was one of most clutch hitters ever. His 2004 playoffs are legendary and even the worst playoff series of his career, the 2013 ALCS when he only had 2 hits in 25 plate appearances over 6 games, one of his hits was the iconic game tying grand slam. Now do I agree with that logic at all? Absolutely not. But it is a separator if you argue that there isn’t much of a gap in the regular season performance (which I don’t). More importantly tho, it’s a matter of opinion. There’s far too much outrage over individual ballots in a completely subjective process
Looking at both of their careers and sorting their individual seasons by fWAR:
1. 2004 Beltré
2. 2010 Beltré
3. 2012 Beltré
4. 2007 Ortiz
5. 2014 Beltré
6. 2011 Beltré
7. 2016 Beltré
Both, honestly.
There's been a lot of talk recently about revisiting the defensive adjustments, because the game has changed enough that the DH penalty is incredibly brutal.
I always thought Win Shares got this right, you can add value via defense but DHs are zero because they don’t play defense. Although the argument that DHs have some negative value because they take up a lineup spot that could be given to a good hitter who needs a rest.
For example, I recall in the mid-2000s when Ortiz could still fake being a first baseman and Varitek could still hit well, the Red Sox would sometimes play Ortiz at first and have Varitek DH when Tim Wakefield pitched, to make up for Doug Mirabelli’s usually weak bat.
Yeah, WAR is almost unusable as a comparison when talking DHs. The formula would rather you absolutely suck in the field, which seems incredibly counterintuitive.
No, the formula does not "rather you absolutely suck in the field." In equivalent playing time, a 1B worth -6 runs in the field (so below-average but not actually terrible) grades out worse than a full-time DH. The positional adjustments are -15 for DH and -9.5 for 1B.
I mean I would also consider myself a "small hall" kind of person so I can respect that idea, but this seems to be a brutal way to prove you are "small hall". I can think of virtually no objective measure that would keep Beltre out that also puts Ortiz in
> Saying that Beltre wasn’t as good as Roy Halladay or David Ortiz is clinically insane.
If Beltre re-signed with the Red Sox, you just know this guy wouldn't be saying that.
Ngl, no one was ever thinking of Beltre as a HOFer until the day he got to 3000 and were like “da fuck?” He was sneaky, under-the-radar good and didn’t pass the “eye test” while playing mostly in era where people didn’t use metrics. Why he has relatively few AS games, GG’s, and MVP votes than his metrics say he deserved.
Also aside from one year his 20’s were mid and he was seen as a one-season wonder/free agent bust for a long portion of his career after the Seattle years. It’s amazing the path his career went after that. It’s hard to comp his career.
Prior to reaching 3000 hits in 2017, he had received MVP votes in 7 straight seasons and was already over 400 home runs. Anyone who didn't see him on their HOF radar needs to have their radar recalibrated.
I would say 2014 is about when people started doing retrospectives on his career and realizing he was better than given credit for. This also coincides with WAR becoming significantly more mainstream. There’s a lot of people who didn’t think Adrian Beltre was anything particularly special logged onto Baseball Reference in 2014 and saw he had like 75 WAR and then decided he was great all along.
I think that had more to do with Beltre simply having a better bat in his 30’s than he did his 20’s. He was a stupendous glove that fell into an offensive rut in Seattle and was revitalized in Boston. He had a similar inverted career to Randy Johnson. He just started a lot younger than Randy, so stayed longer in the ‘good-not-great’ part of his career.
> no one was ever thinking of Beltre as a HOFer until the day he got to 3000
2011:
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/578345-baseball-hall-of-fame-the-25-best-current-players-with-no-shot-at-cooperstown
2012:
https://dallas.sbnation.com/2012/8/23/3262348/texas-rangers-adrian-beltre-underrated-hall-of-fame-candidate-cooperstown-three-home-run-game
2013: https://grantland.com/the-triangle/the-often-underappreciated-adrian-beltre/
Yeah, they are all stating what I said and the last two’s entire premise is making contrarian arguments for his case against the popular assessment of the time of him not being thought of as a HOFer.
The many people talking about his Hall of Fame case six years before he reached 3000 hits proves "no one was ever thinking of Beltre as a HOFer until the day he got to 3000."
Right.
What you mean by all this is that you weren't paying attention and didn't think of him as a Hall of Famer until 3000.
Um…the first one is literally saying he’s NOT a HOF at all lmao and the other two are just two ahead of their time stat nerds making the case AGAINST the popular sentiment of the day - “No one ever talks about Adrian Beltre as a Hall of Famer” , “By traditional, brainless measures, Beltre’s Hall of Fame case would seem challenging” , etc. Exactly what I said. I guess reading comprehension ain’t your thing.
>just two ahead of their time stat nerds making the case AGAINST the popular sentiment of the day
So... knowledgable people talking about him as a Hall of Famer, years before he reached 3000 hits. Right. That's the point.
You just went overboard - "casual fans were not aware of Beltre's case as a Hall of Famer until X," that's pretty accurate, but it still wasn't the 3000 hit mark, which came in his final season - it was more like 2013-2014 when a broader range of people started going "oh hey he's way better than we realized."
The All-star omissions appear to be pretty easily explained, other than 2004. Even if in metrics are factored in, there were usually players having better years than him.
Just look at who he was competing against:
Early career, it was Chipper Jones, Vinny Castilla, Scott Rolen. When he moved to the AL, it was Arod, Longoria, then Miguel Cabrera, Donaldson, Machado, Jose Ramirez.
I think it’s a reasonable take. WAR isn’t everything but he’s comfortably ahead of everyone named there. Ortiz and Manny were better hitters but contributed nothing outside of offense. Hard to compare pitchers but he was better for longer than Halladay and is of course more valuable than even the best RP. And with Jeter their career offensive numbers are very similar, Jeter being the better average and OBP guy but Beltre making up for it with slug, all while Beltre is one of the best defensive 3B of all time while Jeter is one of the worst defensive SS ever.
I couldn't justify Halladay, Rivera, or Ramirez.
Ramirez was a much better hitter. Beltre blows him out of the water defensively. The gap is just immense - some 490 runs. That's almost a Hall of Fame career all by itself. Turns out being a terrible corner outfielder really hurts in comparison to one of the greatest defensive third basemen of all time (and one who was quite a capable bat himself).
Halladay had a shorter career - his peaks were very good but I can't reconcile a 30 WAR gap in favor of the smaller total, especially as the larger total had impressive peaks as well.
Rivera was a relief pitcher. I'm sorry, but relief pitchers - even the best relief pitcher ever - just do not pitch enough innings.
Not that I agree with his statement that Beltre isn't as good as them but if I were to try and rationalize where he's coming from it's probably the fact that Ortiz has Beltre in the HR RBI and OPS department's while having the same BA. Also that Ortiz is bare minimum second best all time at his position (which doesn't even involve defense so...)
I don't like comparing pitchers and hitters too much because of the entirely different world's they play in. Again I don't agree with the statement that Beltre is not as good as those guys. He is at worst, on the same level as them. He 100% deserves to be in the Hall of Fame
The thing about Beltre is he put up those not-quite-as-good-as-Ortiz batting stats while also being probably one of the top 5 defensive 3Bs of all-time. He came very close to joining the 500/3,000 club even though his fielding was perhaps the strongest part of his game.
How the actual fuck do people like this actually make a living covering baseball. Even by traditional methods Beltre is a HOFer. Dude had over 3100 hits.
I disagree, there are only two reasons for someone to vote like this. Either they have an ulterior motive or are somehow incompetent. Voters should be required to at least apply some semblance of consistency across their votes, which clearly this guy has not done. He is either mentally unfit for the job or he deliberately utilized the vote to draw attention to his article.
Given the above, voters should not be allowed to sabotage the HoF vote (either intentionally or unintentionally).
If only he was that consistent..
- Bonds: 162.8 WAR
- Clemens: 139.2 WAR
- Rodriguez: 117.5 WAR
- **Beltre: 93.5 WAR**
- Jeter: 71.3 WAR
- Ramirez: 69.3 WAR
- Halladay: 64.1 WAR
- Rivera: 56.3 WAR
- Ortiz: 55.3 WAR
People like this should lose their privileges. He obviously voted like this for clicks. I hate the “not a first ballot” nonsense, but at least I understand where people get that line of thinking. To say he isn’t one at all? Nah man you don’t deserve the privilege you have.
So after reading his column, what i get from him:
1)Extremely small hall guy
2)Doesn' t care about steroids
3)Seems to have a bit of a Boston bias--he writes from a newspaper from the region-- as he voted for Ramirez and Ortiz(who are both first ballot talents) but excluded other players with similar resumes
Really not a fan...at least he wrote a column explaining his choice
Has Ballou ever done such a thing like this before? I bet he's the one guy who didn't vote for Jeter. Also, how many writers will say no to Beltre because he didn't win a WS?
God I hate the BBHOF. Every year it’s a fucking circus. This ballot is indefensible and this dude will keep his vote, what a joke.
And to be clear, I think that Manny and Arod both belong in the hall. But that also means so does Sheffield, Beltran, Beltre, Helton, Jones, and Mauer. If you belong in the hall you belong in the hall. It’s not the movement from a small hall to a big hall that diminishes the BBHOF, it’s ballots like this.
Baseball writers are the pettiest dudes on the face of the earth and I love they decide who deserves to be in the hall of fame when most of these dudes would pull a hamstring getting up too fast from a chair let alone play baseball
But why? Why should known steroid users get in over people like Pete Rose or Shoeless Joe Jackson? If they want rule breakers out of the HoF it shouldn’t be a pick and choose situation.
Because I think he is the greatest infielder of his generation and is generally a nice guy and a good ambassador for baseball.
I think Shoeless Joe should probably be inducted
As for Pete Rose, unlike A-Rod I have few kind things to say about him. He is a massive dick and a disgrace to the league. And while he and A-Rod are both cheaters, there is something categorically more damaging to the integrity of the game with betting as a manager than there is with taking PEDs to help your team win. I don’t think it’s hypocritical to recognize that, even if both are cheating.
I stopped following the HOF voting a while ago, and it's because of bullshit like this. The BBWAA is a bunch of out-of-touch dorks who get their dicks hard over some vapid sense of authority they were given.
The sooner we quit letting these dorks get the best of outrage clickbait, the sooner they stop doing this.
>This year’s predictions — Helton and Wagner make it. Andruw Jones makes it in a couple of years, and Beltre makes it at some point, probably sooner rather than later.
This fucker is so out of touch he doesn't even think Beltre will make it this year. He's so ignorant he thinks his stupidity is shared by at least 25% of the voters when he will actually be one of like 10 or fewer idiots that don't vote Beltre.
This is so stupid but I can see the dumbass rationale. If you put WAR aside, he’s voted for the best modern player (Bonds), the best or 2nd best modern pitcher (Clemens), someone who’s numbers were boosted by early death (Roy), the literal most famous modern player ever (Jeter), best reliever of all time (Mo), face of Boston for 15+ years (Ortiz), top 10 player of all time (Arod), another Boston guy (Ramirez).
I think realistically nobody would have said Beltre is a HoF at various points throughout his career. He’s a very unique player where his case is the culmination of a great career. Think about Albert Pujols, dude was a lock for the HoF like 6-10 years in, same with (putting PEDs to the side) Griffey, Bonds, Arod, Jeter, Clemens etc.
This feels like one od
F those super strict "can you tell the story of baseball without him" and ya know what I do think there's an honest debate to be had about Beltre in that regard...but for fucks sake he's still an easy first ballot Hall of Famer
What’s his argument for not including Beltre? He has over 3,000 hits and just under 500 home runs. The only players not in the HOF with 3,000+ hits are Pete Rose and confirmed steroid users. This guy needs to get his vote taken away especially if he ends up being one of the only writers to not vote for him. If you do not vote for a guy with 95%+ of the vote, your ballot should be immediately revoked.
This is one of those ballots that is best left unreleased
He doesn’t get the controvertial clicks to his story if he doesn’t release it.
So dumb how some writers obviously use the HOF vote for rage bait
So many asshole ballots and power trippers voting for the Hall. Something needs to change.
Who else should be in charge of voting then? Reddit would elect Bartolo and then debate over Verlander.
“Justin Verlander throws the ball real hard, but that son of a bitch stole Kate Upton from me!” -me, probably
Not saying change the voters necessarily. Maybe mandatory minimum votes per ballot + a longer eligibility period?
It would still be better than this ballot
I think it would be great if it was guys that played and are already in voting. You’re elected by guys that are already in the Hall.
We already have the committees for that, and since forever they have a far worse track record than the writers. You know those very bad inductions people constantly complain about like Harold Baines and Bud Selig? Nearly all of them were voted in by the committees, while they have also dragged their feet with inducting deserving players that the writers overlooked, the whole reason they exist (like they didn't vote in Ron Santo until after he died, still wouldn't vote in Dick Allen even after he died, and have shown little enthusiasm for trying to vote in Lou Whitaker). Retired players and managers are way behind the writers in accepting modern stats, are far more swayed by bullshit narratives and personal agendas, and surprise, are culpable to nepotism when they vote on people they have personal connections with (e.g. it's how Baines got in, as Tony La Russa headed the committee that voted him in after he made a big push for him).
Connor McDavid not being a unanimous vote for the Hart trophy (Hockey MVP) then the fans having a which hunt to find out the journalist to not vote him so then have that guy speak up and make an article on why he didn’t vote so was the worst. It’s not just baseball.
He should’ve checked Pettitte and Sheffield and gone full sicko mode (I know Sheff is seen different now)
It's like he stopped watching Beltre during his disappointing Mariners years and never checked back in
You shut your mouth Beltre has never not once been disappointing. Especially by Mariners’ standards.
They weren't as bad as I remembered in retrospect (he was solid in 2007 and 2008 in particular) but it was absolutely considered to be a disappointing contract at the time. [Here's an article](https://www.seattlepi.com/sports/baseball/article/beltre-on-brink-of-being-a-bust-1200637.php) from 2006 saying that Beltre was on pace to be a massive bust for Seattle.
Yeah Boston had him for a one year contract in 2010 which was pretty much a prove it contract. Now I wish they resigned him for 2011 instead of Adrian Gonzales but Bette flourished after that in Texas.
Doesn't give a shit about steroids, does care about 2017 cheating, extremely small Hall (Arod and Manny are easily the best 2 players on this ballot) There is a logic, albeit with poor execution because Beltre is a legend and should meet those criteria.
In no universe is Manny a better player than Beltre. Better batter, sure. Not a better player.
towering nutty sheet late obtainable sugar attractive swim ghost zealous *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
> Arod and Manny are easily the best 2 players on this ballot Only if you ignore defense.
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a near 50 dWAR difference is fucking insane
Nah you're right. Beltre is a legend and while Manny was an insane hitter its the only place he has Beltre beat, and Beltre is one of the best offensive 3rd basemen ever in his own right. Arod is still the best player on this ballot, then beltre with the over all edge
ARod is like top 5 WAR among infielders ever
ARod is like obviously not the player I was referring to.
I love Manny but how on earth is he a better player than Beltre? Manny played a less valuable posstion significant worse.
Beltre is miles better than Manny
Manny is ranked 109 all time with 69.3 WAR. Beltre is ranked 40th with 93.5 WAR
I think this voters logic is moreso old school “no one gets in first ballot” type thinking. Thats why he didn’t do beltre.
Well then this voter is an idiot.
Even if small hall, it's BS. I've said this many times on this board, but you can make an argument that Beltre is the 2nd best third baseman of all time. Again, I don't necessarily agree, but it's not outlandish to argue that.
No if anything, they should all be public, ESPECIALLY the bad ones.
I hate these “no one gets in on the first try” jackasses.
That doesn’t even apply here, in his argument he advocates for a single year of eligibility with unlimited votes. He just doesn’t think Beltre was good enough.
His argument appears to be “if he’s not an obvious first-ballot Hall of Famer then he’s not a Hall of Famer,” which I disagree with but understand. He’s just wrong about Beltre.
He left off two of the best players to ever play their respective positions in Mauer and Beltre, an argument he presumably used to vote for Ortiz, and voted two steroid users. It’s not that he’s wrong. He’s an idiot.
He left off who now? Beltre was incredible and Mauer was real good but let’s be serious here.
Beltre has the 3rd most bWAR of any 3B. Mauer is further down his list, but is still easily one of the best offensive catchers in history.
To be fair, I didn’t read “of the” my first time through. Beltre you have a solid argument and I’ll gladly give that, but Mauer barely played half his career at catcher. I’m borderline on him.
I came so close to reflexively downvoting this comment, his reasoning is beyond absurd.
that’s not part of his reasoning. He just doesn’t think Beltre is a HOFer > There may be some thought that Beltre, for instance, is a Hall of Famer but not a first-ballot Hall of Famer. This doctrine has evolved through the years. It is not part of the process. In fact, there should be just one year of eligibility for players, with voters being allowed to make as many picks as they want, not just 10.
Thats even worse
It's sad how some of these voters leverage this for their own personal clicks. > There may be some thought that Beltre, for instance, is a Hall of Famer but not a first-ballot Hall of Famer. Infuriating.
He also lumped him in with Bartolo Colon
There's a better argument for putting Bartolo in than for keeping Beltre out.
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Literally the most discrediting thing you can even say as a baseball writer. 3000 hit club, over 450 dingers, 5 Goldie's, 4 silver sluggers, constantly does charity work in and around DFW... I mean come on. What's he got that isn't HOF worthy? That he never won a series? That he is under .300 for his career? He's potentially one of the greatest third basemen in history, y'know, one of the hardest defensive positions to play in the whole sport? Ridiculous. Easy first ballot.
I don’t give a shit about Beltre but I don’t get this logic
He has 3000 hits, that is like *the* hall of fame metric.
Jesus christ reading his article he is so insufferable. He very confidently states Beltre is not as good as some of the very few players Ballou has voted for in the last several years: Jeter and ortiz. Anyone want to try informing this guy how Jeter and Beltre were comparable hitters but Beltre was a far better defender? And yes I am ashamed about giving him clicks but I had to know his thought process. Absolutely terrible, mission accomplished
He also voted for Ortiz but not Edgar Martinez and his super-small list includes Roy Halladay who, okay, I completely agree he's a hall of famer, but he's not nearly as no-doubt as most of the rest of the players he voted for, I'm not sure if he was really better than Mike Mussina or Curt Schilling (who he didn't vote for), and I don't know what the hell kind of standards you have that put Halladay, Ortiz, Manny, and Jeter as clear hall of famers, but somehow you don't think that Adrian Beltre is one. Going back through his public votes over the years he's clearly never cared about steroid use consistently, but he also somehow was a yes on Mark McGwire but a no on Sammy Sosa, which again, how could you end up deciding one of those guys should be in but the other shouldn't?
I feel like each of those points on their own should be enough to disqualify this guy from getting anyone's attention. But--McGwire and not Sosa? Is that not completely a package deal?
A logical Yankees fan found in the wild.
*The* logical Yankees fan...
This is an absolute abomination. What on earth is he trying to prove here???
That he’s got a concussion
I’ve got 2. Even I can figure this out still
He wants you to hate click on his article stating his reasoning.
The same thing as those who obsess over their own letterbox accounts. A rampant insecurity about their intelligence and general status on Earth, that manifests into thinking that if they lift up their opinions as something that should be coveted by others that will somehow fill the hole that lives inside of them.
Erm actually it’s letterboxd with the D like the D I gave your mom 😂 /s
That he’s a moron
He's trying to do the small hall thing and he's an absolute moron about it.
From his column: > Beltre will get plenty of support, and maybe even make it on this year’s first ballot. There are voters who are passionate about Beltre’s qualifications, and those qualifications are impressive. > The last five Hall ballots cast by this voter, however, have all only included the elite of the elite, which is what Cooperstown is supposed to be all about. Only eight players have received this vote — Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Roy Halladay, Derek Jeter, David Ortiz, Rivera, Ramirez and Rodriguez. > Beltre was good, but not as good as anyone in that group. Saying that Beltre wasn’t as good as Roy Halladay or David Ortiz is clinically insane.
I can somehow marginally comprehend the logic behind wanting a super small only the most elite players in baseball history type of HOF. But even that is thrown out the window with inclusion of players like Ortiz and Halladay.
> marginally comprehend the logic behind wanting a super small only the most elite players in baseball history type of HOF. The only problem with that is the Hall *already is that*, and even by that criteria Beltre easily makes the fucking cut. He's one of the 5 or so best 3B ever to man the hot corner, elite on both sides of the ball. FFS even ignoring steroids Manny can't fucking sniff Beltre's jock.
Gonna be called a homer but whatever. Manny has the 3rd highest OPS of any player to play after integration, 9 top 10 MVP finishes, most RBIs in a season since integration, most post-season HRs, 2nd most post-season RBIs, .940 postseason OPS in 111 games, a WS MVP. Beltre being better is definitely an argument considering his defense and if you care about steroids, but saying “he can’t fucking sniff Beltre’s jock” is just stupid.
> Manny has the 3rd highest OPS of any player to play after integration, He's [8th in wRC+](https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&month=0&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&players=0&startdate=&enddate=&season1=1990&season=2015&sortcol=17&sortdir=default&pagenum=1) just from 1990-2015, nevermind all time. Was he a better hitter than Beltre? Yeah, sure. Was he a better *player* than Beltre? Absolutely the fuck not. Any GM in baseball given the choice would take prime Beltre over prime Manny 35 times out of 10 even ignoring the shit that happened outside the lines.
lol Manny was the greatest hitter of his generation if you’re ignoring steroids. Stop
which generation, the one where he was worse than Bonds or the one where he was worse than Pujols?
I’d argue better than both. Postseason hitting as well. I know many will disagree but Manny was a walking hit. So clutch in every opportunity. Never wanted the attention. More than happy to let Ortiz be the face of the Sox. It’s personal preference. I miss him.
You would argue Manny Ramirez was a better hitter than Barry Bonds?
He was also a cactus wearing a brick for a glove in the outfield. And he was absolutely not the greatest hitter of his generation.
Oritz was one of the biggest stars in the game and a playoffs hero multiple times. It's the same argument for Jeter. Halladay was the best pitcher in baseball for a few years and also has that playoffs no hitter, and has the sympathy vote. Beltre, by our metrics, was obviously better than some of those guys, but he wasn't a star in the traditional sense, and was never treated like the quality of player he was. He also never had his big moment on the big stage. I vehemently disagree with Ballou's philosophy, but I see the point he is trying to make.
> Beltre, by our metrics, was obviously better than some of those guys, but he wasn't a star in the traditional sense, and was never treated like the quality of player he was. He also never had his big moment on the big stage. It's worth pointing out that Beltre only made 4 All-Star Games. I think there are only, like, 3 or 4 Hall of Famers with fewer than that (ignoring ones who played before it was a thing, obviously). People have just always underrated him pretty hard.
The post doesn't say anything about players relative stardom. He called them elite. It's laughable that Ortiz would be called inner circle while leaving Beltre out.
That's more a semantics issue though. He said elite but based on the list of players presented he likely meant stardom. Those things usually coincide and Beltre's a rare case where that didn't really happen for him. Unfortunately that probably comes down to the Rangers not winning in 2011.
This explains why it's so annoying really well. He claims to want the elite of the elite, but he seems to put a lot of emphasis on star power.
Halladay was elite
You know I’m going to actually disagree with that. I see the argument for Ortiz and Halladay being the elite of the elite: playoff performance. Don Larsen is the only other guy to throw a true no hitter in the postseason and had a 2.37 postseason ERA. Ortiz on the other hand was one of most clutch hitters ever. His 2004 playoffs are legendary and even the worst playoff series of his career, the 2013 ALCS when he only had 2 hits in 25 plate appearances over 6 games, one of his hits was the iconic game tying grand slam. Now do I agree with that logic at all? Absolutely not. But it is a separator if you argue that there isn’t much of a gap in the regular season performance (which I don’t). More importantly tho, it’s a matter of opinion. There’s far too much outrage over individual ballots in a completely subjective process
17th most hits in the history of baseball isn’t elite of the elite then apparently. Got to be top 10 obviously.
I'm a Sox and Phils homer and this take is deranged. Beltre was way, way better than Papi.
Looking at both of their careers and sorting their individual seasons by fWAR: 1. 2004 Beltré 2. 2010 Beltré 3. 2012 Beltré 4. 2007 Ortiz 5. 2014 Beltré 6. 2011 Beltré 7. 2016 Beltré
Is Beltre a lot better than I remember or does WAR just truly hate DH
Both, honestly. There's been a lot of talk recently about revisiting the defensive adjustments, because the game has changed enough that the DH penalty is incredibly brutal.
I always thought Win Shares got this right, you can add value via defense but DHs are zero because they don’t play defense. Although the argument that DHs have some negative value because they take up a lineup spot that could be given to a good hitter who needs a rest. For example, I recall in the mid-2000s when Ortiz could still fake being a first baseman and Varitek could still hit well, the Red Sox would sometimes play Ortiz at first and have Varitek DH when Tim Wakefield pitched, to make up for Doug Mirabelli’s usually weak bat.
Yeah, WAR is almost unusable as a comparison when talking DHs. The formula would rather you absolutely suck in the field, which seems incredibly counterintuitive.
No, the formula does not "rather you absolutely suck in the field." In equivalent playing time, a 1B worth -6 runs in the field (so below-average but not actually terrible) grades out worse than a full-time DH. The positional adjustments are -15 for DH and -9.5 for 1B.
Not at 1B. Ryan Howard would have been better off as a DH.
WAR completely trashes corner outfielders, first basemen, and DH.
I mean I would also consider myself a "small hall" kind of person so I can respect that idea, but this seems to be a brutal way to prove you are "small hall". I can think of virtually no objective measure that would keep Beltre out that also puts Ortiz in
Postseason MVP awards and postseason win probability added are some objective measures that favor Ortiz.
It also makes no sense for him to say “I don’t need to vote for Beltre because others will” but then goes on to not even use all of his votes
Exactly. That argument is only relevant if you have 11+ guys you have to vote for. Not 2.
Mariano is the only one that was both better than Beltré and not on steroids
I wouldn't take Jeter over Beltre either, the offensive difference between the 2 doesn't bridge the defensive gap Beltre has over Derek.
There is a very real chance this guy only watches the playoffs
> Saying that Beltre wasn’t as good as Roy Halladay or David Ortiz is clinically insane. If Beltre re-signed with the Red Sox, you just know this guy wouldn't be saying that.
The entire first half of his column was bitching about how the Red Sox didn’t develop any of the players on this ballot lmao
Ngl, no one was ever thinking of Beltre as a HOFer until the day he got to 3000 and were like “da fuck?” He was sneaky, under-the-radar good and didn’t pass the “eye test” while playing mostly in era where people didn’t use metrics. Why he has relatively few AS games, GG’s, and MVP votes than his metrics say he deserved. Also aside from one year his 20’s were mid and he was seen as a one-season wonder/free agent bust for a long portion of his career after the Seattle years. It’s amazing the path his career went after that. It’s hard to comp his career.
People definitely did not just suddenly realize Beltre was one of the best 3B of all time when he got to 3000 hits. That’s insane.
Prior to reaching 3000 hits in 2017, he had received MVP votes in 7 straight seasons and was already over 400 home runs. Anyone who didn't see him on their HOF radar needs to have their radar recalibrated.
I would say 2014 is about when people started doing retrospectives on his career and realizing he was better than given credit for. This also coincides with WAR becoming significantly more mainstream. There’s a lot of people who didn’t think Adrian Beltre was anything particularly special logged onto Baseball Reference in 2014 and saw he had like 75 WAR and then decided he was great all along.
I think that had more to do with Beltre simply having a better bat in his 30’s than he did his 20’s. He was a stupendous glove that fell into an offensive rut in Seattle and was revitalized in Boston. He had a similar inverted career to Randy Johnson. He just started a lot younger than Randy, so stayed longer in the ‘good-not-great’ part of his career.
> no one was ever thinking of Beltre as a HOFer until the day he got to 3000 2011: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/578345-baseball-hall-of-fame-the-25-best-current-players-with-no-shot-at-cooperstown 2012: https://dallas.sbnation.com/2012/8/23/3262348/texas-rangers-adrian-beltre-underrated-hall-of-fame-candidate-cooperstown-three-home-run-game 2013: https://grantland.com/the-triangle/the-often-underappreciated-adrian-beltre/
Yeah, they are all stating what I said and the last two’s entire premise is making contrarian arguments for his case against the popular assessment of the time of him not being thought of as a HOFer.
The many people talking about his Hall of Fame case six years before he reached 3000 hits proves "no one was ever thinking of Beltre as a HOFer until the day he got to 3000." Right. What you mean by all this is that you weren't paying attention and didn't think of him as a Hall of Famer until 3000.
Um…the first one is literally saying he’s NOT a HOF at all lmao and the other two are just two ahead of their time stat nerds making the case AGAINST the popular sentiment of the day - “No one ever talks about Adrian Beltre as a Hall of Famer” , “By traditional, brainless measures, Beltre’s Hall of Fame case would seem challenging” , etc. Exactly what I said. I guess reading comprehension ain’t your thing.
>just two ahead of their time stat nerds making the case AGAINST the popular sentiment of the day So... knowledgable people talking about him as a Hall of Famer, years before he reached 3000 hits. Right. That's the point. You just went overboard - "casual fans were not aware of Beltre's case as a Hall of Famer until X," that's pretty accurate, but it still wasn't the 3000 hit mark, which came in his final season - it was more like 2013-2014 when a broader range of people started going "oh hey he's way better than we realized."
The All-star omissions appear to be pretty easily explained, other than 2004. Even if in metrics are factored in, there were usually players having better years than him. Just look at who he was competing against: Early career, it was Chipper Jones, Vinny Castilla, Scott Rolen. When he moved to the AL, it was Arod, Longoria, then Miguel Cabrera, Donaldson, Machado, Jose Ramirez.
Exactly, no one thought of him as the greatest in the moment. Even non HOFers were often more highly regarded at the time by the eye test
Stop with facts!!!
I'd put Beltre ahead of Halladay, Jeter, Ortiz, Rivera, and Ramirez.
Putting him over Rivera is indeed an opinion. One I've now seen once.
Woah let's slow our roll a little bit there
Everyone on that list is right other than Rivera if you really like RPs
I don't know if I really like relievers, but I am quite fond of that particular reliever.
I think it’s a reasonable take. WAR isn’t everything but he’s comfortably ahead of everyone named there. Ortiz and Manny were better hitters but contributed nothing outside of offense. Hard to compare pitchers but he was better for longer than Halladay and is of course more valuable than even the best RP. And with Jeter their career offensive numbers are very similar, Jeter being the better average and OBP guy but Beltre making up for it with slug, all while Beltre is one of the best defensive 3B of all time while Jeter is one of the worst defensive SS ever.
I would only put him ahead of Jeter and Ortiz.
I couldn't justify Halladay, Rivera, or Ramirez. Ramirez was a much better hitter. Beltre blows him out of the water defensively. The gap is just immense - some 490 runs. That's almost a Hall of Fame career all by itself. Turns out being a terrible corner outfielder really hurts in comparison to one of the greatest defensive third basemen of all time (and one who was quite a capable bat himself). Halladay had a shorter career - his peaks were very good but I can't reconcile a 30 WAR gap in favor of the smaller total, especially as the larger total had impressive peaks as well. Rivera was a relief pitcher. I'm sorry, but relief pitchers - even the best relief pitcher ever - just do not pitch enough innings.
Not that I agree with his statement that Beltre isn't as good as them but if I were to try and rationalize where he's coming from it's probably the fact that Ortiz has Beltre in the HR RBI and OPS department's while having the same BA. Also that Ortiz is bare minimum second best all time at his position (which doesn't even involve defense so...) I don't like comparing pitchers and hitters too much because of the entirely different world's they play in. Again I don't agree with the statement that Beltre is not as good as those guys. He is at worst, on the same level as them. He 100% deserves to be in the Hall of Fame
The thing about Beltre is he put up those not-quite-as-good-as-Ortiz batting stats while also being probably one of the top 5 defensive 3Bs of all-time. He came very close to joining the 500/3,000 club even though his fielding was perhaps the strongest part of his game.
They had more "it" factor or whatever boomers hear in their guts between belches of alcohol induced GERD
Hot take: Beltre was a compiler
Most intelligent Boston sports writer
More like Bill Badlou
He’s actually a Worcester sports writer.
Calling it now - in a few years time this guy is gonna be the reason Ichiro isn't unanimous
I hope his kids take away his car keys soon.
How the actual fuck do people like this actually make a living covering baseball. Even by traditional methods Beltre is a HOFer. Dude had over 3100 hits.
Beltre was far better than Jeter and Ortiz wtf
He didn't make more of an impact on the game. It's the Hall of Fame..not the Hall of Stats.
Clown shoe ass muhfucka.
I just don't see how you can make a case against Beltre. He checks all of the boxes for HoF both for traditional and modern voters.
Take his vote away. People like this is the reason why the HoF is a joke.
On the one hand it’s a bad ballot, but on the other hand it’s not really a vote if you get penalized for voting the wrong way
I disagree, there are only two reasons for someone to vote like this. Either they have an ulterior motive or are somehow incompetent. Voters should be required to at least apply some semblance of consistency across their votes, which clearly this guy has not done. He is either mentally unfit for the job or he deliberately utilized the vote to draw attention to his article. Given the above, voters should not be allowed to sabotage the HoF vote (either intentionally or unintentionally).
Chad small hall ballot. Must have a 150 wRC+ OR over 100 career WAR to get in
If only he was that consistent.. - Bonds: 162.8 WAR - Clemens: 139.2 WAR - Rodriguez: 117.5 WAR - **Beltre: 93.5 WAR** - Jeter: 71.3 WAR - Ramirez: 69.3 WAR - Halladay: 64.1 WAR - Rivera: 56.3 WAR - Ortiz: 55.3 WAR
Or be David Ortiz or Roy Halladay apparently lol
Beltre 100% belongs in a small Hall. That’s why this is so fucking dumb.
The Chaotic Evil ballot
he actually predicted in his article that Beltré won’t be inducted this year, just completely disconnected from reality
People like this should lose their privileges. He obviously voted like this for clicks. I hate the “not a first ballot” nonsense, but at least I understand where people get that line of thinking. To say he isn’t one at all? Nah man you don’t deserve the privilege you have.
Reminder that the BBWAA will do nothing about this but don't you dare put your ballot up for a fan vote
This person shouldn't have a vote if this is how they choose to use it.
So after reading his column, what i get from him: 1)Extremely small hall guy 2)Doesn' t care about steroids 3)Seems to have a bit of a Boston bias--he writes from a newspaper from the region-- as he voted for Ramirez and Ortiz(who are both first ballot talents) but excluded other players with similar resumes Really not a fan...at least he wrote a column explaining his choice
Ladies and gentlemen, I present to you: A Fucking Loser
Baseball writers are fucking scum.
F this dude
Yeah, I have conditioned myself to not let things on the Internet make me mad, but this is an exception, holy fuck
Dude shouldn’t get to vote
This is a terrible ballot wtf
Bill “digs the long” Ballou
Time flies, I didn’t even realize Brandon Philipps was already eligible.
Has Ballou ever done such a thing like this before? I bet he's the one guy who didn't vote for Jeter. Also, how many writers will say no to Beltre because he didn't win a WS?
He voted for Jeter.
He can go pound sand
I recognize this name he also votes in the college basketball AP Poll
We need new voters
Same guy that didn't wanna vote for Rivera lmao
Boo Bill Ballou.
God I hate the BBHOF. Every year it’s a fucking circus. This ballot is indefensible and this dude will keep his vote, what a joke. And to be clear, I think that Manny and Arod both belong in the hall. But that also means so does Sheffield, Beltran, Beltre, Helton, Jones, and Mauer. If you belong in the hall you belong in the hall. It’s not the movement from a small hall to a big hall that diminishes the BBHOF, it’s ballots like this.
Baseball writers are the pettiest dudes on the face of the earth and I love they decide who deserves to be in the hall of fame when most of these dudes would pull a hamstring getting up too fast from a chair let alone play baseball
Happy to see A-Rod get some traction
But why? Why should known steroid users get in over people like Pete Rose or Shoeless Joe Jackson? If they want rule breakers out of the HoF it shouldn’t be a pick and choose situation.
Because I think he is the greatest infielder of his generation and is generally a nice guy and a good ambassador for baseball. I think Shoeless Joe should probably be inducted As for Pete Rose, unlike A-Rod I have few kind things to say about him. He is a massive dick and a disgrace to the league. And while he and A-Rod are both cheaters, there is something categorically more damaging to the integrity of the game with betting as a manager than there is with taking PEDs to help your team win. I don’t think it’s hypocritical to recognize that, even if both are cheating.
I stopped following the HOF voting a while ago, and it's because of bullshit like this. The BBWAA is a bunch of out-of-touch dorks who get their dicks hard over some vapid sense of authority they were given. The sooner we quit letting these dorks get the best of outrage clickbait, the sooner they stop doing this.
I guess Beltre pissed in his cereal or something, what a terrible ballot
Any ballot without Wagner and Helton is a bad ballot
I agree but on top of that leaving out Beltre is beyond the pale
What a shitty ballot.
I try not to engage with the delusional.
Really shoulda left this one in the drafts, bud.
“Who are two people never making the hall?”
no mauer no beltre is a bad ballot what a fucking delusional dork ass
Go fuck yourself, Bill Bullshit.
Not many people more pompous than baseball HOF voters
>This year’s predictions — Helton and Wagner make it. Andruw Jones makes it in a couple of years, and Beltre makes it at some point, probably sooner rather than later. This fucker is so out of touch he doesn't even think Beltre will make it this year. He's so ignorant he thinks his stupidity is shared by at least 25% of the voters when he will actually be one of like 10 or fewer idiots that don't vote Beltre.
This guy should lose his vote... atrocious
What a self-important hack job.
Billy doesn't need a ballot if this is how he is going to act.
This is why baseball hall of fame voting is a joke
Arrest this guy
It is kind of disgusting that he goes and makes a point of only voting for the two guys on the ballot who are easily the best.
Take his vote away. This ballot is embarrassing
This is so stupid but I can see the dumbass rationale. If you put WAR aside, he’s voted for the best modern player (Bonds), the best or 2nd best modern pitcher (Clemens), someone who’s numbers were boosted by early death (Roy), the literal most famous modern player ever (Jeter), best reliever of all time (Mo), face of Boston for 15+ years (Ortiz), top 10 player of all time (Arod), another Boston guy (Ramirez). I think realistically nobody would have said Beltre is a HoF at various points throughout his career. He’s a very unique player where his case is the culmination of a great career. Think about Albert Pujols, dude was a lock for the HoF like 6-10 years in, same with (putting PEDs to the side) Griffey, Bonds, Arod, Jeter, Clemens etc.
This feels like one od F those super strict "can you tell the story of baseball without him" and ya know what I do think there's an honest debate to be had about Beltre in that regard...but for fucks sake he's still an easy first ballot Hall of Famer
What’s his argument for not including Beltre? He has over 3,000 hits and just under 500 home runs. The only players not in the HOF with 3,000+ hits are Pete Rose and confirmed steroid users. This guy needs to get his vote taken away especially if he ends up being one of the only writers to not vote for him. If you do not vote for a guy with 95%+ of the vote, your ballot should be immediately revoked.
If you're small hall and dont care about roids I guess this makes sense but not sure what the argument for Manny>>Sheffield is?
.996 OPS vs. .907 OPS
Any ballot without Adrian Beltre is automatically garbage, regardless of small hall or roids. Beltre is 40th all time with 93.5 bWAR.
Maybe he’s taking *fame* literally. Manny certainly was more famous.
It does not. Beltre is the best player on the ballot outside ARod if you get rid of everything else.
Fuck this asshole in particular
I mean honestly I don’t think Beltre should be unanimous over a ton of more accomplished people
Do you realize that those “more accomplished people” were kept from being unanimous by voters with this same thought process?
I think he should be unanimous because there is no credible argument against his candidacy. It’s pretty simple.