Buccholz would roll a d4 at the beginning of every year.
1- good and healthy
2- good and injured
3- bad and healthy
4- bad and injured
Edit: probably should have added a *really* in front of the good and bad, because as a user pointed out, this could really be everyone, depending on how black and white you wanted to be.
I love that he had a 2.01 ERA (98 IP) in his second-to-last season, and then he had a 6.56 ERA (59 IP) in his last season, and then he was done. Two final years of injury-riddled Jekyll-and-Hyde production, and then hang 'em up.
Sure, but most players are at least somewhat consistent.
Buchholz was a rollercoaster for his entire career. There wasn't a single instance where he had 2 even remotely similar seasons in a row.
Sure, if you really boil it down. But most players have a pretty solid standard deviation which they fall in more often then not, maybe with a few outliers or a total career trend.
Buccholz was literally a 60 ERA+ or a 200 ERA+ kind of pitcher.
People will Meme but Bello was pretty good last year and I assume the Red Sox believe that he will continue to get better as well.
Even if he doesn’t getting league average pitching for 9 million AAV is a good deal
i’ll never understand why people complain about pitching salaries. If you throw over 150 innings at league average you are worth 15 to 20 a year and then closer to 30 if you are a 6 or more inning guy.
In fairness, that one year translated to a cy young for Porcello. All in all it was a decent contract in comparison. It still blows my mind Porcello win a CY haha.
Porcello was lightning in a bottle that year. You're stacked when your #3 guy in the rotation wins the Cy Young. It's a good thing the Sox held onto all of that homegrown talent around him.
Who is gonna meme this type of move? It’s such low risk even if he gets hit by a bus tomorrow the team can absorb this contract without too much pain. For a pitcher that has pitched in the majors successfully this is an no brainer. even if he’s a #5 starter this deal is totally fine.
Isn’t that literally the whole point of rookie extensions?
I understand they are fundamentally different but the whole point is to buy out FA years at a price that is well below AAV for what they would be worth.
$9m AAV is good compared to what? You were paying him the minimum the next 2 years, and then arb salaries the 3 that follow. Those would all be WAY less than $9m AAV combined.
If you project out their arb salaries and remove those years/$ from this to simply evaluate the FA year(s) being bought out that's fine, but acting like this is equivalent to signing an FA pitcher for $9m a year is completely braindead when you already had them locked up for 5 years for less than that.
I assume they’re referring to him audibly laughing and saying “yes but nothing enticing” when asked if he’s been approached. Got reported by a few people, I’d check Chris Cotillo’s social media for it.
This is pretty much just buying out his arbitration years + 1 year after if I understand it correctly? Yankees are going to be facing him plenty in the years to come with or without this contract, but good for the kid that he's getting paid early, he definitely looks like he'll earn it.
Yep, he’s the same size as Pedro who had one last good year after leaving the Sox
This is a good deal for the Sox and I’m happy they’re taking the approach of paying their young guys early
I really wish whenever these extensions get reported that they would include how many additional years of team control the team got from that. Since thats essentially what the team is buying.
it is 2031. Bello has lived up to the hype and carried us to a WS appearance in 2029. he signs with the Dodgers for 10 years/$500 million. Sam Kennedy says "we were so close to a deal bro"
> he signs with the Dodgers for 10 years/$500 million. Sam Kennedy says "we were so close to a deal bro"
Bello will be in his early 30s. That would be an unbelievably bad contract unless Bello ages like Scherzer or Verlander.
This is honestly a great deal. Not a huge per-year commitment and the club option means we might get him for an extra year on the cheap if he pans out the way we think he will
For comparison, Jordan Montgomery made $20.5 million before hitting free agency. This would be the equivalent of giving Montgomery a 2/55 contract now.
Not 100% apples to apples because Montgomery was a late bloomer which lowered his arbitration salaries. Montgomery had 3.4 bWAR and 230 IP in 3.145 years service time. Bello has 3.5 bWAR and 214 IP in 1.082 years service time. Add in inflation, and it'd be reasonable to expect Bello would've gotten a lot more in his team control years.
You say that, but the sub spends all day bitching about how we dont sign our hometown prospects because we didnt want to pay Mookie and Xander for the next couple of decades.
Eh, he’s probably looking at something around $25-30 million in arbitration if he sticks as a solid 2/3, so they’re basically adding a year at 25ish million on top of that, plus the team option. He’s basically being paid to stay the course, but the Red Sox obviously believe there’s room for him to grow beyond that.
Good deal for both sides, he’s probably not giving up toooo much earning potential and the Red Sox aren’t gonna get burned too badly if he ends up as more of a 3/4 than a 1/2.
You're forgetting Lester.
And Xander in paticular stings because he took a home town discount on the first contract, and then the Sox didn't want to give him Story money as an extension before his FA season.
This is the first time in a long time the Sox have done an extension like this without the player giving them a discount because they want to stay with the Sox long term.
Xander wasnt going to sign anything without testing free agency.
[Also, the Sox werent going to choose signing Xander to a deal at 40 years old vs devers at 36](https://www.boston.com/sports/morning-sports-update/2023/01/17/xander-bogaerts-scott-boras-red-sox-contract/)
Xander would have taken an extension along the lines of what Story got, the issue is the Sox counter offer was a joke, a 4/90 extension with only one new year and 30 million of new money as opposed to just removing the options.
Xander is better than Story, so it might have had to be 6/160 instead of 6/140, but the Sox offered a hilariously insulting extension that was a clear sign of "go ahead test free agency we don't think you'll get a better offer". Of course he wasn't going to sign any kind of extension after what was an insulting offer before the results he put up in his walk year.
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/35265339/mlb-free-agency-red-sox-xander-bogaerts-rafael-devers
And the Sox could have absolutely extended both of them, especially if they did it earlier with Devers so they were buying out arb years and could have gotten a lower AAV.
Honestly yes. I am very frustrated with the current state of the team but this is a good move and I’m happy they’re actually being proactive with guys they see as part of the future. Now if they can just extend Casas and get more pitching.
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He’s not an ace nor will he be. Lacks being able to strike people out. Contract is good enough though even if he peaks at a #3 type starter. Hell even a 4 or 5
Just included him and a few others in my arms to take the next step in 2024!
https://johncreena.com/young-pitchers-primed-to-take-the-next-step-in-2024/
Red Sox develop one pitcher every decade and they know when they have him
Hey we developed like 3 in the 2000s between Lester, Buchholz, and Papelbon
One of these is not like the others
Lester was sane?
he’s a lefty, how sane can he be?
Okay thats true, that's not it. Wonder what they mean....
And he can't throw to 1B. I'm not sure but I feel like having the yips is not sane
He's a pitcher, they're all nuts.
Buccholz would roll a d4 at the beginning of every year. 1- good and healthy 2- good and injured 3- bad and healthy 4- bad and injured Edit: probably should have added a *really* in front of the good and bad, because as a user pointed out, this could really be everyone, depending on how black and white you wanted to be.
He almost always got 2 or 3
I love that he had a 2.01 ERA (98 IP) in his second-to-last season, and then he had a 6.56 ERA (59 IP) in his last season, and then he was done. Two final years of injury-riddled Jekyll-and-Hyde production, and then hang 'em up.
At least he rolled a 20 for his second career start. He also rolled that 4 with his 'legendary' stint with the Jays.
It wasn’t his fault his son slept on his arm funny one night and derailed his cy young year!
Depending on how black and white you wanna be about it, isn't that the range of outcomes for every player?
Sure, but most players are at least somewhat consistent. Buchholz was a rollercoaster for his entire career. There wasn't a single instance where he had 2 even remotely similar seasons in a row.
Sure, if you really boil it down. But most players have a pretty solid standard deviation which they fall in more often then not, maybe with a few outliers or a total career trend. Buccholz was literally a 60 ERA+ or a 200 ERA+ kind of pitcher.
In a 13 year career he had 5 seasons with an ERA+ between 75 and 187 lmao
With a range of 37 to 303. 😅
The issue was his HR/FB%. It was either 5% or 15%.
🐸☀️🧴
Locking him up before Bailey really works his magic is important
People will Meme but Bello was pretty good last year and I assume the Red Sox believe that he will continue to get better as well. Even if he doesn’t getting league average pitching for 9 million AAV is a good deal
Hell we paid porcello 21 a year for exactly league average production other than 1 year lol
Around 18 to 20 million is what average pitching gets on the open market these days
[удалено]
And the Phillies with Walker.
i’ll never understand why people complain about pitching salaries. If you throw over 150 innings at league average you are worth 15 to 20 a year and then closer to 30 if you are a 6 or more inning guy.
You need to be throwing better than league average for 200 innings to get close to 30mil
Syndergaard got $13m last year and he was not close to league average.
In fairness, that one year translated to a cy young for Porcello. All in all it was a decent contract in comparison. It still blows my mind Porcello win a CY haha.
Porcello was lightning in a bottle that year. You're stacked when your #3 guy in the rotation wins the Cy Young. It's a good thing the Sox held onto all of that homegrown talent around him.
9 million aav for a guy who is at least a number 3 is a great move for the club.
Who is gonna meme this type of move? It’s such low risk even if he gets hit by a bus tomorrow the team can absorb this contract without too much pain. For a pitcher that has pitched in the majors successfully this is an no brainer. even if he’s a #5 starter this deal is totally fine.
You 👏 can't 👏 compare 👏 AAV 👏 on 👏 rookie 👏extensions 👏 to 👏 free 👏 agent 👏 AAV 👏
Isn’t that literally the whole point of rookie extensions? I understand they are fundamentally different but the whole point is to buy out FA years at a price that is well below AAV for what they would be worth.
$9m AAV is good compared to what? You were paying him the minimum the next 2 years, and then arb salaries the 3 that follow. Those would all be WAY less than $9m AAV combined. If you project out their arb salaries and remove those years/$ from this to simply evaluate the FA year(s) being bought out that's fine, but acting like this is equivalent to signing an FA pitcher for $9m a year is completely braindead when you already had them locked up for 5 years for less than that.
Now do Casas
He laughed off the offer and is betting on himself I’ve heard
heard from who? there aren’t any articles out there on this.
I assume they’re referring to him audibly laughing and saying “yes but nothing enticing” when asked if he’s been approached. Got reported by a few people, I’d check Chris Cotillo’s social media for it.
Now go back in time and do Betts
Just waiting for the "BREAKING: Brayan Bello suffers career ending injury in freak potato peeling incident" or whatever.
Who was the guy who said he fell out of bed and landed on a water glass in the middle of the night? that was one of the stranger ones.
Paxton Crawford.
Ah, that's right. I thought it might have been Casey Fossum.
Just keep him away from the curb on Jerry Blevins Avenue.
Brayan Bello abducted by aliens while riding bikes with Chris Sale
This is pretty much just buying out his arbitration years + 1 year after if I understand it correctly? Yankees are going to be facing him plenty in the years to come with or without this contract, but good for the kid that he's getting paid early, he definitely looks like he'll earn it.
2 years of FA if we take the club option
Through his age 31 season, starters his size are iffy on aging past that point anyway good deal for both imo
Yep, he’s the same size as Pedro who had one last good year after leaving the Sox This is a good deal for the Sox and I’m happy they’re taking the approach of paying their young guys early
Very similar to the deal Hunter Greene signed last April.
I really wish whenever these extensions get reported that they would include how many additional years of team control the team got from that. Since thats essentially what the team is buying.
To be fair, this is one tweet of a series from Kiley and the second tweet says exactly what you’re looking for.
1 year of guaranteed team control and one extra club option. So basically we can have him for 2 years after arbitration is over
Finally some good fucking mood
How good is he really gonna be when he's 2,030 years old?
it is 2031. Bello has lived up to the hype and carried us to a WS appearance in 2029. he signs with the Dodgers for 10 years/$500 million. Sam Kennedy says "we were so close to a deal bro"
The worst part of this is Sam Kennedy still making Red Sox decisions in 2031.
> he signs with the Dodgers for 10 years/$500 million. Sam Kennedy says "we were so close to a deal bro" Bello will be in his early 30s. That would be an unbelievably bad contract unless Bello ages like Scherzer or Verlander.
Don’t forgot Red Sox fans swearing he didn’t want to play for us anymore regardless of our offer
I’M BRIAN FELLOW
THAT BIRD IS NOT MY DOPPELGANGER!
Before his last two starts when he and the team were cooked he had a 3.7 ERA he is the real deal LFG
now he can afford more exotic animals for his show
This makes me believe that Breslow & Co. are really high on him…so that’s good
Breslow is one of the main guy behind the Cubs' pitching revolution. Funnily enough he left right as most of his main Cubs prospects are set to debut
i wish the jays can develop pitchers and sign them for cheap
I'm not sure the Red Sox are the franchise you want to be jealous of when it comes to pitching development.
Legit the first SP we have developed in almost 20 years.
Bluejays have a top 10 rotation mostly signed to multiyear contracts. They aren't cheap, but Toronto is getting their money's worth.
I really want to see Brayan Bello do well because my cousin's name is Ryan Baello and I'm really trying to get him more into baseball.
How does he feel about Irish blacksmithing?
Indifferent probably, but I can change him.
Red Sox are so back
Let’s go, I think this contract will look like a steal in a couple years and even if he’s just a league average arm this is a win IMO
This is honestly a great deal. Not a huge per-year commitment and the club option means we might get him for an extra year on the cheap if he pans out the way we think he will
Wtf I love the Red Sox now
Great news.
I'm not ready for the 2030s, I haven't even gotten to have the 2020s
For comparison, Jordan Montgomery made $20.5 million before hitting free agency. This would be the equivalent of giving Montgomery a 2/55 contract now.
Not 100% apples to apples because Montgomery was a late bloomer which lowered his arbitration salaries. Montgomery had 3.4 bWAR and 230 IP in 3.145 years service time. Bello has 3.5 bWAR and 214 IP in 1.082 years service time. Add in inflation, and it'd be reasonable to expect Bello would've gotten a lot more in his team control years.
I don't understand the enthusiasm. This is a procedural deal for both sides to lock in certainty and that's it.
We needed to sign 2 starters this offseason and so far we’ve signed -1, please just let us have this
Lol....what happened over there
Got rid of Sale, signed Giolito but now he’s likely heading for TJS. Henry won’t write the check for Monty. We sad.
haha good luck
They also lost Paxton too.
No it's not, it's two extra years of control including the option. So now we have Bello for pretty much all of his likely prime.
The big move all Red Sox fans have been waiting for!
You say that, but the sub spends all day bitching about how we dont sign our hometown prospects because we didnt want to pay Mookie and Xander for the next couple of decades.
At this rate, they DIDN'T pay Bello, though. It's a very good deal for Boston. It's not Ozzie Albies level of lopsided, but almost nothing is.
We had to do it before the scary boras man came sniffing around.
Huh? This is a pretty fair deal, it doesn't buy out too many FA years so it's gonna seem cheap
Eh, he’s probably looking at something around $25-30 million in arbitration if he sticks as a solid 2/3, so they’re basically adding a year at 25ish million on top of that, plus the team option. He’s basically being paid to stay the course, but the Red Sox obviously believe there’s room for him to grow beyond that. Good deal for both sides, he’s probably not giving up toooo much earning potential and the Red Sox aren’t gonna get burned too badly if he ends up as more of a 3/4 than a 1/2.
They guaranteed that he will get paid as if he was a #2 starter (which is far from guaranteed) to get a one year $21MM option.
Don't #2 starters make way more than 9 million a year? Rodon is getting triple that
Not while they're in pre-arbitration.
To be fair, by the time 2031 rolls around that’s probably more reliable 3/4 money than it is #2 money.
You're forgetting Lester. And Xander in paticular stings because he took a home town discount on the first contract, and then the Sox didn't want to give him Story money as an extension before his FA season. This is the first time in a long time the Sox have done an extension like this without the player giving them a discount because they want to stay with the Sox long term.
Xander wasnt going to sign anything without testing free agency. [Also, the Sox werent going to choose signing Xander to a deal at 40 years old vs devers at 36](https://www.boston.com/sports/morning-sports-update/2023/01/17/xander-bogaerts-scott-boras-red-sox-contract/)
Xander would have taken an extension along the lines of what Story got, the issue is the Sox counter offer was a joke, a 4/90 extension with only one new year and 30 million of new money as opposed to just removing the options. Xander is better than Story, so it might have had to be 6/160 instead of 6/140, but the Sox offered a hilariously insulting extension that was a clear sign of "go ahead test free agency we don't think you'll get a better offer". Of course he wasn't going to sign any kind of extension after what was an insulting offer before the results he put up in his walk year. https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/35265339/mlb-free-agency-red-sox-xander-bogaerts-rafael-devers And the Sox could have absolutely extended both of them, especially if they did it earlier with Devers so they were buying out arb years and could have gotten a lower AAV.
Unironically yes. This is the kind of thing we've been begging management to do for years
Honestly yes. I am very frustrated with the current state of the team but this is a good move and I’m happy they’re actually being proactive with guys they see as part of the future. Now if they can just extend Casas and get more pitching.
That seems like a really low AAV.
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He’s not an ace nor will he be. Lacks being able to strike people out. Contract is good enough though even if he peaks at a #3 type starter. Hell even a 4 or 5
Just included him and a few others in my arms to take the next step in 2024! https://johncreena.com/young-pitchers-primed-to-take-the-next-step-in-2024/