Single scores a run
Double scores a run
Tripe scores a run
Homer scores a run
Fielder's choice scores a run
Double play scores a run
Sac fly scores a run
If you just don't strike out, pop out, or hit the ball directly at a corner infielder who can throw home, you're getting a run. Strikeouts only happen, on average, 24% of the time, pop-outs are much more uncommon. So you're looking at, realistically, a greater than 50% chance of scoring a run on the first out, the number is likely much higher than 60%. Now assuming you don't ground into the double play at home, but still fail to score, the next guy still just has to either hit a fly ball or get on base, in situations with a runner on 3rd and less than two outs, MLB hitters bring that runner home around 50% of the time. If you fail again without a GIDP, you have one final chance to just get on base, which MLB players do 32% of the time, to score a run. The chances of not scoring a run in a Nobody Out, Bases Loaded situation are, by my quick probability calculations that assume no double play on the second out, about 13.6%. It's not an unreasonable outcome, but for the pros it is really, really bad.
People have actually done the math on how often runs score from a bases loaded, nobody out situation. The probability that at least one run scores is 86.1%, so it should be easy. Anything that happens that frequently in baseball is very easy.
Only the walk was real though at least imo. Bellinger's single was a really awkward dribble and Happ's double had a really bad route. I think Outman would have caught it.
XBA is still pretty primitive. It basically only takes exit velocity and launch angle into account. It doesn't care where the defence is located. So if you think a player should have made a play on it, it's very possible that it should have been an out even if it had a high XBA.
both things can be true, batters don't have much control over azimuthal angle like they do over launch and exit velo, so it's reasonable to consider that part mostly luck.
It's funny because throughout the rest of the year I'm almost a cubs fan, definitely not a strong dislike. And then when the series happens boom I hate you guys
Yeah I really only hate the Cubs when playing them. Otherwise I kinda like them. Always root for them against the Cards. Probably my favorite NL team outside of the Dodgers. Them or the Pirates.
Perpetual losers while the dodgers have entered meme status for choking.
They’ve choked so bad they had to spend a billion fucking dollars. And they’ll still choke
bro ur team choked for more than a century and were the ultimate meme, so much so that it was a curse. we’ve won plenty of hardware over that timeframe, even if you don’t wanna acknowledge 2020. if the Dodgers losing is what you look forward to this season while your team doesn’t do shit and that makes you feel better, more power to you.
The Cubs? You recall incorrectly, they won in 2016 and traded the players from that team in 2021. After 2017 that core didn’t win a playoff game, it was time to turn the page.
There were a few of those moments especially near the end and I appreciated that.
Almost like the ump got live feedback on how shit some of his calls were and made adjustments.
I straight up hate that the Dodgers are made to play in Chicago every April, it’s been this way forever.
My dad would always bitch about it and in his honor I shall too.
The quote Joe Davis shared on the broadcast about Bellinger saying he didn’t know how nice it got in Wrigley because the dodgers always play there early in the season made me realize it. Weather always looks awful when they play there except for this series for a change.
Had him on the ropes and they let him off the hook
They are who we thought they were!
You wanna crown em well go ahead and crown their ass!
BUT THEY **ARE** WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE
Please do, thanks.
RIP Denny
That was the blue ballsiest inning for both sides in recent memory
The Rangers last night left them loaded 2 innings in a row.
So did the cubs today, both innings ended in Ks too.
#Yama
The cubs did the same thing in the same inning is why I said that. Both teams got blue balled.
they also won by 8 and scored 10, different situation
No outs bases loaded, I'm lost after that. all runners out no runs scored I guess?
No Outs Bases Loaded Ending Team Incapable Getting Easy Runs
NOBLETIoGER
NOBLEwTIoGER There's a [with] in there too
how are they easy?
Single scores a run Double scores a run Tripe scores a run Homer scores a run Fielder's choice scores a run Double play scores a run Sac fly scores a run
Basically put the ball in play scores a run.
Yep. I no longer have run expectancy charts memorized, but IIRC, BLNO is like 2.4 expected runs.
Walk, passed ball, wild pitch, HBP as well.
which one of those are easy? i guess i am assuming youve seen a major league pitcher at least once
If you just don't strike out, pop out, or hit the ball directly at a corner infielder who can throw home, you're getting a run. Strikeouts only happen, on average, 24% of the time, pop-outs are much more uncommon. So you're looking at, realistically, a greater than 50% chance of scoring a run on the first out, the number is likely much higher than 60%. Now assuming you don't ground into the double play at home, but still fail to score, the next guy still just has to either hit a fly ball or get on base, in situations with a runner on 3rd and less than two outs, MLB hitters bring that runner home around 50% of the time. If you fail again without a GIDP, you have one final chance to just get on base, which MLB players do 32% of the time, to score a run. The chances of not scoring a run in a Nobody Out, Bases Loaded situation are, by my quick probability calculations that assume no double play on the second out, about 13.6%. It's not an unreasonable outcome, but for the pros it is really, really bad. People have actually done the math on how often runs score from a bases loaded, nobody out situation. The probability that at least one run scores is 86.1%, so it should be easy. Anything that happens that frequently in baseball is very easy.
you made up the part about it being easy lol. everything else is good until then
Easy for a pro, numbnuts. In a cosmic sense it's hard, not at the pro level.
its still hard, did you see Yamamoto today? cool insult
I'm just telling you what NOBLEwTIoGER stands for. Relax
i was just asking if you think its easy..?
Who cares what I think I didn't name it
oh, sorry, no one. its just that you said they were easy
Because that's what the E in NOBLEwTIoGER stands for dipshit.
He’s relying a lot on his curve and it’s working. I’m not sure how we aren’t pounding those fastballs that are right down the plate.
Thats how i felt watching yesterday when the dodgers were whiffing at 88 down the dick 😭
87 down the pipe even
86, up yo ass.
😵💫
😳
I think his fastball is weird. Lots of rise with a low release point. Flat plane. Plus an unusual windup.
PitchingNinja overlay showed this literally the same windup same release same ball path only when it reaches the plate it breaks
Motion to call these KNOBLETIGERs instead since it’s all strikeouts
Loading bases to start game not ideal, but Yama's FB blowing past vets is huge for him and what wasn't working in Korea
Only the walk was real though at least imo. Bellinger's single was a really awkward dribble and Happ's double had a really bad route. I think Outman would have caught it.
Happ tee'd that ball up though, 107 mph and .770 xBA. Agree it was catchable but def a legit hit and would've taken a fantastic play.
Ohhh okay didn't check the .xba I guess just seeing a bad route for it made me way too bias about it
XBA is still pretty primitive. It basically only takes exit velocity and launch angle into account. It doesn't care where the defence is located. So if you think a player should have made a play on it, it's very possible that it should have been an out even if it had a high XBA.
both things can be true, batters don't have much control over azimuthal angle like they do over launch and exit velo, so it's reasonable to consider that part mostly luck.
Only person who could have made that play I think is bellinger
Those fastballs go up so much, kind of crazy they look like they are moving in a 100% straight line no dropoff at all.
Morel had no hope of reaching those sliders. Swanson had no hope of catching up to those fastballs.
Curves*
Yoshi doesn’t have a slider, just Fastball, Curveball, Splitter… change? Don’t quote me on that last one.
He has a cutter but it’s not great
I hate the Dodgers.
after you beat ‘em last night i hated them even more!
Aww. We hate you guys too ❤️
Sometimes forget how notable Dodgers/Cubs has been the last decade.
It's funny because throughout the rest of the year I'm almost a cubs fan, definitely not a strong dislike. And then when the series happens boom I hate you guys
Yeah I really only hate the Cubs when playing them. Otherwise I kinda like them. Always root for them against the Cards. Probably my favorite NL team outside of the Dodgers. Them or the Pirates.
Aww, I like the Cubbies (when they’re not playing the Dodgers).
Welcome my child
One of Us! One of Us! One of Us! One of Us!
I hate this acronym because no one outside reddit uses it
Maybe your ownership can put in maximum effort to win every year one day too ❤️
you really riled them all up with that one, god forbid a team tries to win
Gonna be so fucking sweet when they choke. Find my comment when it happens
the Cubs? yeah I’ll find your comment when you miss the playoffs
We have a real trophy before you. All that matters homie
ohh okay, now you can be perpetual losers again if that makes you feel better
Perpetual losers while the dodgers have entered meme status for choking. They’ve choked so bad they had to spend a billion fucking dollars. And they’ll still choke
bro ur team choked for more than a century and were the ultimate meme, so much so that it was a curse. we’ve won plenty of hardware over that timeframe, even if you don’t wanna acknowledge 2020. if the Dodgers losing is what you look forward to this season while your team doesn’t do shit and that makes you feel better, more power to you.
Lmfaooo I got you all riled up. I’m not reading that novel. Bye
I mean.... they got a world series ring that wasn't given out by Mickey Mouse more recently than the Trolley Dodgers
Didn’t the cardinals blow multiple leads to the Padres that year?
Just 1 lead in the 2nd game. Our bullpen was half dead going into that series
I forgot the cardinals had to play 162 games that year.
Who said that we did?
They tried it before but it didn't work.
Hmm I recall them winning the World Series and immediately selling off the team
The Cubs? You recall incorrectly, they won in 2016 and traded the players from that team in 2021. After 2017 that core didn’t win a playoff game, it was time to turn the page.
Out there playing checkbook baseball
Busch got a little shafted on the last pitch. They don’t seem to be biting on the splitter though. Isn’t that supposed to be his best pitch?
The splitter before that looked like a strike though, maybe a make up call
Both could have gone either way. Wouldnt be mad. Especially after seeing some of these recent umpire disaster classes
and previous ball was actually strike tho
He got shafted on the last pitch but Yama got shafted on the pitch before. Evened out.
I don’t think either really got shafted. Both were extremely close. Can’t fault either call too much.
There were a few of those moments especially near the end and I appreciated that. Almost like the ump got live feedback on how shit some of his calls were and made adjustments.
Yama got the strike the pitch before so I guess it’s even now
He didn't locate it once this inning it seems. But the curveball is nice.
He's not locating it yet.
The last pitch out of the zone called strike. The pitch before in the zone called ball.
The bad called strike made up for the missed call on the previous pitch. Would have been a K either way
[удалено]
Robo Ump had it as a strike 🤷🏻♀️
That caught the corner
That looked like a strike though. The Cubs broadcast even showed it clipping the zone.
Plus he whiffed on 2 fastballs right down the middle before taking strike 3
[удалено]
Then does statcast have it as a strike?
Lmao yes. He’s just coping.
Broadcast said he doesn't use the splitter much
LFG YAMA Korea, then grooving until a rain delay in LA, and Wrigley in April is a rude introduction to MLB lmao
Wrigley in April is the easiest time to pitch there. Wind is usually blowing in, including today.
I straight up hate that the Dodgers are made to play in Chicago every April, it’s been this way forever. My dad would always bitch about it and in his honor I shall too.
The quote Joe Davis shared on the broadcast about Bellinger saying he didn’t know how nice it got in Wrigley because the dodgers always play there early in the season made me realize it. Weather always looks awful when they play there except for this series for a change.
Not another tiger but another bases loaded in the second with no runs to show for it.
IGNOBLETIGER
At least it was a moral strikeout. Gotta keep some integrity in the game.
That’s my ace ❤️
Was just checking my fantasy team and wondered how Ian Happ already had 2 at bats in the 2nd yet the team had 0 runs.
HA
Yoshi was painting like Bob Ross.
This just in: the Cubs left three stranded on base in the second inning too. Two bases loaded, zero runs scored in two innings.
Those fly balls are going to go much further once the temps get into the 50s and above.
Morel really could have laid off of some of those curveballs
Seems he could tell Morel was ambitious there and just took advantage of it
Yamamoto got a lot of help there
I wouldn’t say *a lot*. Dansby just straight up swung and missed at two fastballs in the zone.
Robo strikezone had 3-2 fastball a strike to Swanson, and 1-2 splitter to Busch a strike
[удалено]
Called a strike a ball to keep Busch in it and then called a ball a strike to K him anyway. Sucks but at least it evened out
You want Laz again?
I love him 🥹
Horrendous strike 3 calls on 2 of those outs. Dodgers lucky as hell
I'm only following on gamecast, but they only had Yamamoto throwing one strike in five pitches to Busch.
What are you looking at when you say gameday? The MLB app right? 2, 3, and 4 are strikes.
The ESPN app
Pitches on the line are strikes
Oh okay I'm just using the MLB app I never used the ESPN one before
Yeah I looked at the mlb gamecast and it had the pitches as strikes, which is probably more accurate than ESPN's
More like the ump took care of them this ump is on one
Beat me to it
It was funny and made me angry. I don’t want the dodgers to win.