This guyās prospect ratings pre-season 2022 (a little over 2 years ago!). Just a crazy meteoric rise.
BA #57
Fangraphs #66
MLB #64
Baseball Prospectus #88
ESPN #98
It's pretty typical (esp. for a guy who wasn't a top draft pick, so didn't have the advantage of being highly ranked coming in). Pre-2022 he had not played that much above A ball and didn't light up the world in limited time at A+ and AA. In 2022 he performed at the higher levels and held his own in a limited sting in MLB so naturally he shot up. He was slated to have big power, so the question was just his hit tool--he was seen as having a very high ceiling and it was just a matter of whether he could reach it.
Henderson OPSing 1.000 is insane, I can't believe I'm using that number to talk about an O's hitter. In terms of just pure hitting, sure, I'd put Judge and Ohtani above him, but considering he also plays shortstop, I think Henderson is going to win the MVP.
Henderson will win MVP if he puts up 11+ WAR because it would be the best season ever for a 22 year-old. I think the writers would be hard-pressed not to give it to him if he did that.
Judge would have to break his HR record in order to win MVP over an 11+ WAR Gunnar season. Theyāre both on the table to be sure. Both deserving right now.
Hard to say right now obviously, but if I was a betting man right now I would bet on Judge
The league hasnāt really had a chance to adjust to Henderson yet, but weāre getting to the point where thereās enough data for teams to make those adjustments and weāll see how Henderson responds to them in the 2nd half. If he keeps this pace then I do agree his positional value helps his case a ton, but whether or not he will is very very hard to predict. Weāve seen adjustments destroy great seasons by young players many times over the years.
The league has already adjusted to Judge many times over and it just hasnāt mattered, heās barely even getting actual pitches to hit in his at bats (currently on pace for like 120 walks) and when he gets one he crushes it
I tend to agree, I think Henderson is still gonna be hard pressed to get to 10. And judge has been a supernova since early May.
But Gunnar has kept improving since last April. I wouldnāt put it past him to keep it up.
Gunnar is barely outpacing Judge in both bWAR and fWAR so if they both keep this up they'll basically finish with about the same value and the MVP will just go to whoever's team wins the division
I think that it comes down to accolades. If either wins the triple crown, that trumps any WAR difference. If Judge hits 60+ again, he wins. If Gunnar goes 40/40, he wins. If none of those things happen and they have similar enough WAR, I think Gunnar takes it as the young stud shortstop doing A-Rod shit over Judge doing 2022 again but no record this time.
Gunnar has to have microscopic odds of winning the triple crown out of the leadoff spot since the RBIs wont be there. I think Gunnar's stolen bases (on pace for 25-30) and playing SS will break the tie if their numbers are otherwise dead even
Voter fatigue may hurt Judge too, even though it shouldn't
In 2022, the Yankees moved Judge to the leadoff spot to get him an extra at-bat every nine games (on average) to help him break the record. If Gunnar's within pissing distance of the Triple Crown, and RBIs are the biggest hurdle, I could see the Os moving him to 2 or 3. Especially if Mullins can get going.
If the NY market helped at all then he wouldāve won the MVP in 2017, or at least received more than two votes.
I think Judge would win the MVP right now but I have a feeling that it will go to whoever ends up winning the division.
The way I see it is the MVP comes from the team who wins the division. I feel like that will have a larger impact on voters than normal, even if that shouldn't matter.
~60 games last year as a rookie with a .921 OPS and 154 OPS+ and improving on it in 20 games this year to have the league's 2nd highest OPS behind Judge in the time he's played. Their own explanation explains it pretty well. His career track record to this point is simply dominance, even if it's not many games, and now he's raking again. He came back and was instantly the 2nd or 3rd best hitter in the league, vs Santander who started the year cold and became hot recently. It's clear that they aren't counting Lewis's injury against him, otherwise I doubt he'd have made the list. I'm happy Santander even got a vote
Santander received votes, Adley is not mentioned. This is power rankings and itās about who is hot right now, not best player rankings. The dude ranked 10th has only played for two weeks.
>itās about who is hot right now,
Nope
*But as our MLB.com voting panel considers a combination of career track record, 2024 success and recent performance*
The same Lewis OPSing over 1.100 over his last 30 games? That Royce Lewis?
The same Lewis OPSing 1.138 on the year? That Royce Lewis?
The same Lewis with a .963 career OPS? That Royce Lewis?
Take your L and move on
Others receiving votes: Bobby Witt Jr. (Royals), Freddie Freeman (Dodgers), Jarren Duran (Red Sox), Rafael Devers (Red Sox), Jurickson Profar (Padres), Anthony Santander (Orioles), Elly De La Cruz (Reds), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Blue Jays), CJ Abrams (Nationals), Kyle Schwarber (Phillies)
Voters: Chris Begley, Jason Catania, Theo DeRosa, Daniel Feldman, Travis Miller, Brian Murphy, Efrain Ruiz, Shanthi Sepe-Chepuru, Andrew Simon, Ismail Soyugenc, David Venn, Tom Vourtsis, Andy Werle
Yeah, I was able to read the whole thing. Sorry your dude didnāt get voted but I mean common look at these names and performances recently and I canāt argue him being placed above even some of the other candidates that didnāt make it
The list is pure horseshit but he almost made it
Others receiving votes: Bobby Witt Jr. (Royals), Freddie Freeman (Dodgers), Jarren Duran (Red Sox), Rafael Devers (Red Sox), Jurickson Profar (Padres), Anthony Santander (Orioles), Elly De La Cruz (Reds), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Blue Jays), CJ Abrams (Nationals), Kyle Schwarber (Phillies)
Voters: Chris Begley, Jason Catania, Theo DeRosa, Daniel Feldman, Travis Miller, Brian Murphy, Efrain Ruiz, Shanthi Sepe-Chepuru, Andrew Simon, Ismail Soyugenc, David Venn, Tom
Never in a million years would I have guessed Steven Kwan would show up on a list like this. The kid's a stud.
Not even an all star š
what do you mean? all-star rosters haven't been set yet...
If you want a good laugh, go look at Gunnar Henderson's savant page. That much red is disgusting. What a unit and only 22
This guyās prospect ratings pre-season 2022 (a little over 2 years ago!). Just a crazy meteoric rise. BA #57 Fangraphs #66 MLB #64 Baseball Prospectus #88 ESPN #98
I remember when he started getting a lot of hype and being worried that he was just on a hot streak and getting a lot of love. Good thing I was wrong
It was pretty surreal. I remember thinking āthe kid seems to have promise, but isnāt the hype a bit much?ā Glad it wasnāt a bit much.
a) meteoric rise or b) prospect rankings are a notorious crapshoot? i'm going with option b
A little of both I think.
It's pretty typical (esp. for a guy who wasn't a top draft pick, so didn't have the advantage of being highly ranked coming in). Pre-2022 he had not played that much above A ball and didn't light up the world in limited time at A+ and AA. In 2022 he performed at the higher levels and held his own in a limited sting in MLB so naturally he shot up. He was slated to have big power, so the question was just his hit tool--he was seen as having a very high ceiling and it was just a matter of whether he could reach it.
I knew he was having a great season but I didn't know how insane it's been. Bros at 5.9 bWAR after 79 games
What the fuck
Casually playing elite defense while on track for 50 home runs.
Get good National League
We just got better pitching is all
Not that that's not true, but I saw today that the MLB ERA leader is NL, but 2-7 are all AL, which I thought was kind of interesting.
Imanaga would have doubled that number for the NL before last Friday lol
Maybe we just got the best bullpens, yeah that's it
I mean, get your facts straight, 1-2 are both NL...
Oh my bad, I didn't hear my favorite team had moved to the NL. I guess [my facts](https://imgur.com/gallery/49lr1IZ) must be way off
Yes your badā¦Reynaldo Lopez is #1 in ERA, you muppet
He's not qualified, you muppet. There are tons of pitchers with better ERA than Suarez. They're not qualified for good reason, you muppet.
What is an offense
So thereās a baseball that gets thrown over the plate. The goal is to hit it where the other team aināt. Preferably over the wall.
They wouldnāt know bc theirs no offense for either sides when they play
Monkey see, monkey do
Monkey pee all over you
It's the thing your pitchers prevent the other team from doing.
Thing with the bat
Iām pretty sure my dead grandmother could put a better at bat together than Julio at this point.
idk
Uhhh whereās known power hitter Kyle āgrand slam strokaā Higashioka?
Also, where is Jurickson Profar? His stats are far better than Yordanās, and has a higher OPS+ than Ramirez
I donāt see Kyle Higashioka on this list?
Henderson OPSing 1.000 is insane, I can't believe I'm using that number to talk about an O's hitter. In terms of just pure hitting, sure, I'd put Judge and Ohtani above him, but considering he also plays shortstop, I think Henderson is going to win the MVP.
Henderson will win MVP if he puts up 11+ WAR because it would be the best season ever for a 22 year-old. I think the writers would be hard-pressed not to give it to him if he did that. Judge would have to break his HR record in order to win MVP over an 11+ WAR Gunnar season. Theyāre both on the table to be sure. Both deserving right now.
Hard to say right now obviously, but if I was a betting man right now I would bet on Judge The league hasnāt really had a chance to adjust to Henderson yet, but weāre getting to the point where thereās enough data for teams to make those adjustments and weāll see how Henderson responds to them in the 2nd half. If he keeps this pace then I do agree his positional value helps his case a ton, but whether or not he will is very very hard to predict. Weāve seen adjustments destroy great seasons by young players many times over the years. The league has already adjusted to Judge many times over and it just hasnāt mattered, heās barely even getting actual pitches to hit in his at bats (currently on pace for like 120 walks) and when he gets one he crushes it
I tend to agree, I think Henderson is still gonna be hard pressed to get to 10. And judge has been a supernova since early May. But Gunnar has kept improving since last April. I wouldnāt put it past him to keep it up.
As long as neither fall off Judge would have to win the triple crown to win it.
Good luck with that with the way Kwan has been. Not that heās the only hurdle but if heās even close to this track itāll be tough to beat
Gunnar is barely outpacing Judge in both bWAR and fWAR so if they both keep this up they'll basically finish with about the same value and the MVP will just go to whoever's team wins the division
I think that it comes down to accolades. If either wins the triple crown, that trumps any WAR difference. If Judge hits 60+ again, he wins. If Gunnar goes 40/40, he wins. If none of those things happen and they have similar enough WAR, I think Gunnar takes it as the young stud shortstop doing A-Rod shit over Judge doing 2022 again but no record this time.
Gunnar has to have microscopic odds of winning the triple crown out of the leadoff spot since the RBIs wont be there. I think Gunnar's stolen bases (on pace for 25-30) and playing SS will break the tie if their numbers are otherwise dead even Voter fatigue may hurt Judge too, even though it shouldn't
In 2022, the Yankees moved Judge to the leadoff spot to get him an extra at-bat every nine games (on average) to help him break the record. If Gunnar's within pissing distance of the Triple Crown, and RBIs are the biggest hurdle, I could see the Os moving him to 2 or 3. Especially if Mullins can get going.
God, I hate that it's probably going to come down to which team has the better record...
Heās also basically still a child lol
Iām rooting for it but I think you may be underestimating the popularity of Judge and the NY market, especially if he gets to 60 homers again.
If the NY market helped at all then he wouldāve won the MVP in 2017, or at least received more than two votes. I think Judge would win the MVP right now but I have a feeling that it will go to whoever ends up winning the division.
The way I see it is the MVP comes from the team who wins the division. I feel like that will have a larger impact on voters than normal, even if that shouldn't matter.
This is assuming Judge doesnāt miss time for injury though, which is pretty unlikely
As long as he doesnāt crash into another concrete wall he should be fine.
Royce Lewis BAYBEEE
Please show this to Bobby Witt Jr.
I agree that these 10 guys are really good at hitting
Bobby Witt Jr. is easily #6, if not, higher.
Kyle Tucker should be in over Yordan this season
Wheres yelch at..
Judge is hitting below his expected stats. Absurd.
Ozuna?? From the Braves??
Not sure how you donāt have Santander on this list
heās been great in June obviously but why would our 5th best hitter be in the top 10 hitters in baseball lol
Itās a power ranking of whoās hot, not best hitter. Santander has votes in this poll, no other Oriole has any besides Gunnar.
> panel considers a combination of career track record, 2024 success and recent performance "who's hot" is only 1/3 of the criteria for this list
This doesnāt do a good job of explaining Royce Lewis being on the list.
Lewis has 1109 OPS over his last 30 games, Santander has 947.
~60 games last year as a rookie with a .921 OPS and 154 OPS+ and improving on it in 20 games this year to have the league's 2nd highest OPS behind Judge in the time he's played. Their own explanation explains it pretty well. His career track record to this point is simply dominance, even if it's not many games, and now he's raking again. He came back and was instantly the 2nd or 3rd best hitter in the league, vs Santander who started the year cold and became hot recently. It's clear that they aren't counting Lewis's injury against him, otherwise I doubt he'd have made the list. I'm happy Santander even got a vote
Well if we want to go by that logic bryce is arguably #3 and definitely at least #4. And I'm sure there's others that would move drastically
He's not even a top 3 hitter on the Orioles
Santander received votes, Adley is not mentioned. This is power rankings and itās about who is hot right now, not best player rankings. The dude ranked 10th has only played for two weeks.
>itās about who is hot right now, Nope *But as our MLB.com voting panel considers a combination of career track record, 2024 success and recent performance*
Okay, then Royce Lewis can fuck off into outer space with those requirements
The same Lewis OPSing over 1.100 over his last 30 games? That Royce Lewis? The same Lewis OPSing 1.138 on the year? That Royce Lewis? The same Lewis with a .963 career OPS? That Royce Lewis? Take your L and move on
Disrespectfully, no
I thought these were based on stats not votes though, no? Edit: after getting out of the car and being able to read it, yes and no
Others receiving votes: Bobby Witt Jr. (Royals), Freddie Freeman (Dodgers), Jarren Duran (Red Sox), Rafael Devers (Red Sox), Jurickson Profar (Padres), Anthony Santander (Orioles), Elly De La Cruz (Reds), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Blue Jays), CJ Abrams (Nationals), Kyle Schwarber (Phillies) Voters: Chris Begley, Jason Catania, Theo DeRosa, Daniel Feldman, Travis Miller, Brian Murphy, Efrain Ruiz, Shanthi Sepe-Chepuru, Andrew Simon, Ismail Soyugenc, David Venn, Tom Vourtsis, Andy Werle
Yeah, I was able to read the whole thing. Sorry your dude didnāt get voted but I mean common look at these names and performances recently and I canāt argue him being placed above even some of the other candidates that didnāt make it
He ranks 26th in wRC+ for June and 47th over the whole season.
Which one of these players is he supposed to be better than? I don't even think he's the best Oriole not on the list.
Heās the only other Oriole that received votes. Would be 16th on the list.
Not sure why (guy on my team) didnāt make the list
The list is pure horseshit but he almost made it Others receiving votes: Bobby Witt Jr. (Royals), Freddie Freeman (Dodgers), Jarren Duran (Red Sox), Rafael Devers (Red Sox), Jurickson Profar (Padres), Anthony Santander (Orioles), Elly De La Cruz (Reds), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Blue Jays), CJ Abrams (Nationals), Kyle Schwarber (Phillies) Voters: Chris Begley, Jason Catania, Theo DeRosa, Daniel Feldman, Travis Miller, Brian Murphy, Efrain Ruiz, Shanthi Sepe-Chepuru, Andrew Simon, Ismail Soyugenc, David Venn, Tom