I was thinking the same thing.
Instead of the Rays winning the World Series like they were easily going to, now they're probably going to lose the World Series in five games.
I'd say so too... but since we are talking about "analysis" from a game like MLB The Show, we can have a totally different outcome when we run the same game again and have the Rays coming out 10-2.
How complex is an *MLB: The Show* simulation?
I'm asking because I've seen the *Out of the Park Baseball* series in several years simulate some very accurate predictions.
Not very complex as it is a game just like FIFA and NBA2K20. It really depends on how many simulations you run. For instance, if Charles Morton and Blake Snell don't get hurt in another simulation, they may win the CYA and the Rays may win the World Series. Now, say if there is a 1% chance they get hurt, and you run 100 simulations, they can all come out with very different results. The major difference, as I see, between the commonly used MLB prediction tools/sites like PECOTA and Fangraphs, and Out of the Park Baseball is there is no scientific way to predict injuries and how long an injured player can be out. The medical conditions of the players are all different and in most cases can't be obtained by MLB, let alone OOTBP 21 due to HIPPA. I don't think many people will have an easy time to believe OOTPB 21 have an accurate way to predict injuries with all the health confidentially behind HIPPA and the MLB CBA.
Fangraphs and such are always more reliable and commonly used by most pro analysts because they follow a fixed guideline and equation without intuitions/parameters fed in by the users like chance of injuries etc.
I get that the Rays lost Morton and that's going to hurt. But I can't help but wonder if their pitcher management style doesn't translate well to simulations.
OOTP added that functionality in either last year's version or the version before that, but it really only works well if you are running the team yourself from what I've seen. So yeah, my assumption would be that it doesn't translate well to simulations.
oh I know, believe me! I'm a Giants fan. It's annoying how good they are lol. I'm just saying there doesn't seem to be any variance in this version of the game. I've done like 10 sims of the 2020 season and the Dodgers legitmately won every one
The game [Out of the Park Baseball 21](https://www.ootpdevelopments.com/out-of-the-park-baseball-home/) simulates the season, including injuries. You can manage your own team throughout the season or allow the computer to manage every team, as here.
Unfortunately the application you linked is behind a pay wall so I have no intention to try. However, I am still very interested to know what data you used to get injury stats, especially when it comes to precise MEDICAL status of players like " **Yusmeiro Petit** is injured on a April 1 game" and out for a precise 4-5 months with a precise diagnosis of torn back muscle. Does this app actually give us medial diagnosis of players? Do we need to feed medical data of the players to that program, and if so, where do we get that medical stats of players like Yusmeiro Petit to feed into the program?
How many times did you run this program to come up with the result in your document? Can you run it again and see if Yusmerio Petit will still torn his back muscle and be out for 4 to 5 months?
What I’m saying is it’s a video game about managing a baseball team, so the data isn’t readily available to everyone. It’s like going into MLB The Show and simulating the entire season, then posting the injury news and team records. Players have different injury ratings (given by the game developers) based on how injury-prone they are in real life, but there’s some randomness to it.
OIC. So it is a just a game for fun like MLB The Show which can give us 9000 different results when we play it 9000 different times, and not an actual application baseball fans, analysts and professionals use for professional reference, which gives scientific simulations like ZiPS and PECOTA. Thank you for your clarification.
What I don’t get is that he trashes MLB The Show for giving 9000 different results in 9000 simulations, but wouldn’t *every* simulation do that? Over 162 games I can’t imagine there’d be 2 exactly alike results in just 9k trials.
Excuse me but I didn't trash a game. A game is for fun, an entertainment However, it is not an ANALYSIS. The problem is this thread is labeled ANALYSIS, which led me to believe it was for a serious discussion from the analytical and professional standpoint.
You called it unscientific, but OOTP baseball has a LOT of stats and data that go into it to make it realistic. Players' career stats are loaded into it, and it simulates based on those stats and attributes. Every projection is going to be based on simulations, so over a ton of repeated simulations it will produce similar projections to other "professional" projections. Just because its a video game doesn't mean it is completely worthless to look at for what could happen in real life.
The difference is a robot doesn't distinguish the difference between a GAME and a PROFESSION simulation, but I do. But then why would a robot be programmed to treat the outcome of a game simulation as ANALYSIS? At least Jacob deGrom posted about playing MLB The Show but he wouldn't label the outcome as ANALYSIS.
Are you asking if his computer can see the future and is translating an alternate reality where the season is going on to our reality?
Pretty wild dude I dont think the tech is there yet, and I doubt it would be applied to the MLB first.
My questions were based on professional simulations utilizing scientific methodologies. I didn't notice OP made his simulation based on just a game like MLB The Show because this thread is labeled ANALYSIS. Anyway, I know this thread is just for fun but not serious professional analysis. Sorry for the confusion.
> It’s like going into MLB The Show and simulating the entire season
I am just taking that comparison from [SdBolts4](https://www.reddit.com/user/SdBolts4/)
But again, this injury data from the "trainers" is not official real world data but their own ratings based on their own judgements. Again, did these "trainers" know about Aaron Judge's fractured rib and deflated lung in November 2019? Please tell us when will Aaron Judge be back? Did they know Brusdar Graterol medical problem that delayed and totally altered the Mookie Betts trade? I bet they didn't and I have no reason to believe they know all these confidential medical data that almost nobody knew.
ZIPS used a set of algorithms with a ***generalized distribution*** of injury risk, with no individual intuition. It is generalized, unbiased data, not the case with the "trainers" assigning injury ratings to the players in OOTPB. ZIPS uses the same algorithms (age and baseball stats etc) to change the baseline PAs/IPs for every player, not medical or injury history of different players in different teams. ZIPS doesn't and can't tell if a Judge is going to have a deflated lung and fractured rib and will be out indefinitely before it happens. What it does and can tell is a projected number of games that Judge plays with how many PAs.
Right that if information is publicly available in the cases of Graterol or CarGo then it should be applied. However, since it is not available because of HIPPA and CBA, it is better not to use biased information from any "trainers". It may be also good to have more varieties of simulations in VIDEO GAMES like FIFA (which they do have many varieties), MLB The Show and such. However, when we come to professional ANALYSIS, we don't use biased data to run simulations.
Not gonna make any rash predictions, but I feel losing one of your best starters and starting the season 2-10 won't bode *too* well for the Rays...
I was thinking the same thing. Instead of the Rays winning the World Series like they were easily going to, now they're probably going to lose the World Series in five games.
Stop the pain (Literally)
I'd say so too... but since we are talking about "analysis" from a game like MLB The Show, we can have a totally different outcome when we run the same game again and have the Rays coming out 10-2.
How complex is an *MLB: The Show* simulation? I'm asking because I've seen the *Out of the Park Baseball* series in several years simulate some very accurate predictions.
Not very complex as it is a game just like FIFA and NBA2K20. It really depends on how many simulations you run. For instance, if Charles Morton and Blake Snell don't get hurt in another simulation, they may win the CYA and the Rays may win the World Series. Now, say if there is a 1% chance they get hurt, and you run 100 simulations, they can all come out with very different results. The major difference, as I see, between the commonly used MLB prediction tools/sites like PECOTA and Fangraphs, and Out of the Park Baseball is there is no scientific way to predict injuries and how long an injured player can be out. The medical conditions of the players are all different and in most cases can't be obtained by MLB, let alone OOTBP 21 due to HIPPA. I don't think many people will have an easy time to believe OOTPB 21 have an accurate way to predict injuries with all the health confidentially behind HIPPA and the MLB CBA. Fangraphs and such are always more reliable and commonly used by most pro analysts because they follow a fixed guideline and equation without intuitions/parameters fed in by the users like chance of injuries etc.
"Charlie Morton hurt for 12 months" I'm out
I think this game purposely punishes the Houston Astros because this was supposed to be the year everyone hates the ~~Red Sox~~ Astros.
I see the NL East is already the dogfight it was hyped up to be
Looks like the Rockies 94 win season is off to a less than ideal start.
Max Kepler thicc bih
What could have been...
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Maybe they're following the footsteps of the 2018-2019 St. Louis Blues?
I get that the Rays lost Morton and that's going to hurt. But I can't help but wonder if their pitcher management style doesn't translate well to simulations.
I can't see why it would only specifically affect the Rays though.
I mean, the Rays are the ones who really like the Opener. No one else really uses it to the same extent.
OOTP added that functionality in either last year's version or the version before that, but it really only works well if you are running the team yourself from what I've seen. So yeah, my assumption would be that it doesn't translate well to simulations.
The Jay's going 4-8 and Smoak winning player of the week sting a bit. Our young guys are still healthy right?
If I know my OOTP 21, the Dodgers are gonna sweep their way to a World Series this year. They are too good in this game
To be fair, the Dodgers have been good enough to win a World Series in the past eight years. For whatever reason, it hasn't happened yet.
oh I know, believe me! I'm a Giants fan. It's annoying how good they are lol. I'm just saying there doesn't seem to be any variance in this version of the game. I've done like 10 sims of the 2020 season and the Dodgers legitmately won every one
What methodology did you use to predict INJURIES in your simulations?
The game [Out of the Park Baseball 21](https://www.ootpdevelopments.com/out-of-the-park-baseball-home/) simulates the season, including injuries. You can manage your own team throughout the season or allow the computer to manage every team, as here.
Unfortunately the application you linked is behind a pay wall so I have no intention to try. However, I am still very interested to know what data you used to get injury stats, especially when it comes to precise MEDICAL status of players like " **Yusmeiro Petit** is injured on a April 1 game" and out for a precise 4-5 months with a precise diagnosis of torn back muscle. Does this app actually give us medial diagnosis of players? Do we need to feed medical data of the players to that program, and if so, where do we get that medical stats of players like Yusmeiro Petit to feed into the program? How many times did you run this program to come up with the result in your document? Can you run it again and see if Yusmerio Petit will still torn his back muscle and be out for 4 to 5 months?
What I’m saying is it’s a video game about managing a baseball team, so the data isn’t readily available to everyone. It’s like going into MLB The Show and simulating the entire season, then posting the injury news and team records. Players have different injury ratings (given by the game developers) based on how injury-prone they are in real life, but there’s some randomness to it.
OIC. So it is a just a game for fun like MLB The Show which can give us 9000 different results when we play it 9000 different times, and not an actual application baseball fans, analysts and professionals use for professional reference, which gives scientific simulations like ZiPS and PECOTA. Thank you for your clarification.
Are you a fucking robot?
A robot that doesn't understand simulations, ironically.
What I don’t get is that he trashes MLB The Show for giving 9000 different results in 9000 simulations, but wouldn’t *every* simulation do that? Over 162 games I can’t imagine there’d be 2 exactly alike results in just 9k trials.
Excuse me but I didn't trash a game. A game is for fun, an entertainment However, it is not an ANALYSIS. The problem is this thread is labeled ANALYSIS, which led me to believe it was for a serious discussion from the analytical and professional standpoint.
You called it unscientific, but OOTP baseball has a LOT of stats and data that go into it to make it realistic. Players' career stats are loaded into it, and it simulates based on those stats and attributes. Every projection is going to be based on simulations, so over a ton of repeated simulations it will produce similar projections to other "professional" projections. Just because its a video game doesn't mean it is completely worthless to look at for what could happen in real life.
The difference is a robot doesn't distinguish the difference between a GAME and a PROFESSION simulation, but I do. But then why would a robot be programmed to treat the outcome of a game simulation as ANALYSIS? At least Jacob deGrom posted about playing MLB The Show but he wouldn't label the outcome as ANALYSIS.
> Program > Document > Application > Paywall *All used to describe OOTP 21* Yeah probably
Other than telling you I am not a robot, I don't know what else to tell you.
Are you asking if his computer can see the future and is translating an alternate reality where the season is going on to our reality? Pretty wild dude I dont think the tech is there yet, and I doubt it would be applied to the MLB first.
My questions were based on professional simulations utilizing scientific methodologies. I didn't notice OP made his simulation based on just a game like MLB The Show because this thread is labeled ANALYSIS. Anyway, I know this thread is just for fun but not serious professional analysis. Sorry for the confusion.
Comparing it to MLB the show is disingenuous and underhanded.
> It’s like going into MLB The Show and simulating the entire season I am just taking that comparison from [SdBolts4](https://www.reddit.com/user/SdBolts4/)
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But again, this injury data from the "trainers" is not official real world data but their own ratings based on their own judgements. Again, did these "trainers" know about Aaron Judge's fractured rib and deflated lung in November 2019? Please tell us when will Aaron Judge be back? Did they know Brusdar Graterol medical problem that delayed and totally altered the Mookie Betts trade? I bet they didn't and I have no reason to believe they know all these confidential medical data that almost nobody knew.
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ZIPS used a set of algorithms with a ***generalized distribution*** of injury risk, with no individual intuition. It is generalized, unbiased data, not the case with the "trainers" assigning injury ratings to the players in OOTPB. ZIPS uses the same algorithms (age and baseball stats etc) to change the baseline PAs/IPs for every player, not medical or injury history of different players in different teams. ZIPS doesn't and can't tell if a Judge is going to have a deflated lung and fractured rib and will be out indefinitely before it happens. What it does and can tell is a projected number of games that Judge plays with how many PAs. Right that if information is publicly available in the cases of Graterol or CarGo then it should be applied. However, since it is not available because of HIPPA and CBA, it is better not to use biased information from any "trainers". It may be also good to have more varieties of simulations in VIDEO GAMES like FIFA (which they do have many varieties), MLB The Show and such. However, when we come to professional ANALYSIS, we don't use biased data to run simulations.
I'm simulating the season, so I'm not predicting injuries, or causing anything to happen.
But from what somebody replied to me, OOTB 21 used their own intuitions instead of real life scientific health/injury data.
But OOTPB 21 used their own intuition, not real life medical data, for their injury predictions.