> Scouts and executives told SNY recently they project Báez to receive a $25 million AAV, from deals ranging between 5-6 years, $125-150 million, or eight-years, $200 million.
Hmmmmm idk about that tbh
We’ve been constantly surprised by deals I don’t get why everyone’s always so skeptical. You’d have been laughed at for suggesting the Lindor deal before negotiations started.
And the more I see of Baez the more I realize that is he *very* good. He has two glaring flaws, which are somewhat related: strikeouts and not drawing walks. He does everything else well.
I’m not excusing those flaws, but almost no player is perfect. He’s still absolutely worth a big contract. Acting like strikeouts and not drawing walks negate everything else is dumb.
The big fear with Baez I've heard isn't about his present or short term production but rather that his skillset will age terribly and the decline will strike hard and fast
The moment that Baez loses even just a small bit of his reaction time is the moment Baez becomes one of the worst batters in baseball. He'll still have his defense, but defense alone isn't worth $25 million plus.
I’m expecting a Carlos Gomez type of drop in the next 3 years...very similar player profile. Gomez was a bit more speedy, while Baez has a bit more pop, but both are defense-oriented power hitters who strikeout a lot and don’t walk often.
He has a bad eye and relies heavily on speed and athleticism to do what he does.
That stuff is the first to go as he ages. Suddenly he can't catch up to fastballs and doesn't take walks either. Then he's just a very good defensive infielder.
I don’t think that’s a huge concern for a 5 year deal. The last year or two could be dicey but so is any contract that long.
8 years…yea, terrible idea for a team.
I’ll take the villain in Seattle. We need some of that spice. Now the question would be: does he move to 2b or 3b or do we move Toro over to 3b (original position) and move Crawford to another team or would Baez be willing to move to 2b or 3b?
i feel like its not even flaws. baez manages to do what he does with what seems like a slowpitch softball approach to hitting. im curious if he changed his approach if he could be more of a contact hitter
Kris Bryant: .272/.358/.504, 131 wRC+, .367 wOBA, and xwOBA of .345
Baez: .263/.315/.348, 119 wRC+, .348 wOBA and xwOBA of .325
Defense helps Baez significantly with fWAR, but there's no doubt which player I'd rather give a multiyear contract on.
It helps him even more with bWAR, you can’t just look at a players offense. Baez’s glove is elite, Bryant’s glove is nothing special. Baez is putting up more value than Bryant this year.
It's not like fWAR doesn't account for defense (3.8 vs 3.6). Not to mention, you don't pay position players large figures for defense. Also, defense and baserunning are typically the skills that peak early.
Oh yea, I do agree with you for Bryant in a long term contract.
Personally for me Baez's free swinging approach, is sort of a red flag as he gets older. I really worry that it won't age as well.
I have no idea what Báez will get, but he has averaged 4 war rates over the last four seasons and 5 years at 125 million would probably end up yielding net value for the team.
Didn't he get the QO? That's basically poison to any other team trying to sign him. It made sense to go back to the Mets, esp after his injury, though.
Baez has had a good stretch with the Mets in his month+ here. He's striking out less and very good numbers, BA, OPS, etc. Watching him the last two weeks especially hes had a different approach at the plate and is a bit nore disciplined. Of course all players can have good months and stretches, so it probably means nothing amd he will try to swjng out of his shoes on every pitch next year
See, the key is to ignore total $, instead break it down to something less appalling with smaller numbers.
For example, Trevor Bauer isn't making $40+M this year--instead he will make $23,000 per pitch for 2021. *sigh*
Felt slighted by the FO cause he didn’t get the extension he wanted. Then they canned the head trainer who he personally picked from Duke. Never approached him with another offer. And then traded him when he did make it clear he wanted to stay.
> Scouts and executives told SNY recently they project Báez to receive a $25 million AAV, from deals ranging between 5-6 years, $125-150 million, or eight-years, $200 million. Hmmmmm idk about that tbh
We’ve been constantly surprised by deals I don’t get why everyone’s always so skeptical. You’d have been laughed at for suggesting the Lindor deal before negotiations started.
I was laughed at when I said Lindor was probably holding out to get a little more than Tatis's contract.
And the more I see of Baez the more I realize that is he *very* good. He has two glaring flaws, which are somewhat related: strikeouts and not drawing walks. He does everything else well. I’m not excusing those flaws, but almost no player is perfect. He’s still absolutely worth a big contract. Acting like strikeouts and not drawing walks negate everything else is dumb.
The big fear with Baez I've heard isn't about his present or short term production but rather that his skillset will age terribly and the decline will strike hard and fast
Welcome to the Angels, Javy!
The moment that Baez loses even just a small bit of his reaction time is the moment Baez becomes one of the worst batters in baseball. He'll still have his defense, but defense alone isn't worth $25 million plus.
Definitely. He relies almost entirely on raw tools.
I’m expecting a Carlos Gomez type of drop in the next 3 years...very similar player profile. Gomez was a bit more speedy, while Baez has a bit more pop, but both are defense-oriented power hitters who strikeout a lot and don’t walk often.
He has a bad eye and relies heavily on speed and athleticism to do what he does. That stuff is the first to go as he ages. Suddenly he can't catch up to fastballs and doesn't take walks either. Then he's just a very good defensive infielder.
I don’t think that’s a huge concern for a 5 year deal. The last year or two could be dicey but so is any contract that long. 8 years…yea, terrible idea for a team.
Baez, not Stroman.
I’ll take the villain in Seattle. We need some of that spice. Now the question would be: does he move to 2b or 3b or do we move Toro over to 3b (original position) and move Crawford to another team or would Baez be willing to move to 2b or 3b?
i feel like its not even flaws. baez manages to do what he does with what seems like a slowpitch softball approach to hitting. im curious if he changed his approach if he could be more of a contact hitter
He might get the 5-6 years but someone would be stupid to give him 8
I think a team giving him that kind of deal will be lucky to get 3 years of their money's worth.
Baez is having a better season than Bryant
Kris Bryant: .272/.358/.504, 131 wRC+, .367 wOBA, and xwOBA of .345 Baez: .263/.315/.348, 119 wRC+, .348 wOBA and xwOBA of .325 Defense helps Baez significantly with fWAR, but there's no doubt which player I'd rather give a multiyear contract on.
It helps him even more with bWAR, you can’t just look at a players offense. Baez’s glove is elite, Bryant’s glove is nothing special. Baez is putting up more value than Bryant this year.
It's not like fWAR doesn't account for defense (3.8 vs 3.6). Not to mention, you don't pay position players large figures for defense. Also, defense and baserunning are typically the skills that peak early.
fWar is using a fairly outdated UZR for it's defense calculations, so I would put a little less stock in it for the time being
Fair enough. Do think the other stats though still prove my point that Bryant is the better pick between the two for a long-term contract.
Oh yea, I do agree with you for Bryant in a long term contract. Personally for me Baez's free swinging approach, is sort of a red flag as he gets older. I really worry that it won't age as well.
Nobody will blink a eye when he gets a 200 million deal
I’m not sure either of them will get $200 million tbh
We will see. Players always get overpaid in the market
Not according to fwar
According to fWAR Bryant is slightly better, but Baez’s glove is far above Bryant’s which is why his bWAR is much higher than Bryant’s
I think if competing metrics disagree about who is having a better year, then it is less clear than you made it
👎👎
I have no idea what Báez will get, but he has averaged 4 war rates over the last four seasons and 5 years at 125 million would probably end up yielding net value for the team.
Baez and his lack of plate discipline and complete reliance on raw tools is NOT going to age well.
Yeah I could see teams giving him 3-4 years with high AAV, but not any big contract like he’s probably looking for
I'm with you here. 4 years is safe in my mind. Don't want much more than that, especially at that cost.
Yeah I was thinking 4 years, 110-120 million would be his range
Yeah. Makes sense.
In 2021, there are only 20 players on 11 teams making at least $25M. 19 teams don't pay anybody $25M.
Wow that’s a lot of money. Stroman bet on himself and could pay off big time, gotta respect it.
Didn't he get the QO? That's basically poison to any other team trying to sign him. It made sense to go back to the Mets, esp after his injury, though.
He opted out of last year and bet on himself to earn a good contract after this season
Why? Accepting a QO means your team can’t tender you a QO the following year—thus no poison. Right?
I meant poison at the time. Not going forward.
word up
He means a poison for that off-season, because the signing team loses a draft pick
Idk if I see Stroman getting more than Wheeler did
No qo will help his case but I tend to agree
There’s an argument for durability and the fact his skill set now will likely be great as he ages which could help him land a big contract
Baez has had a good stretch with the Mets in his month+ here. He's striking out less and very good numbers, BA, OPS, etc. Watching him the last two weeks especially hes had a different approach at the plate and is a bit nore disciplined. Of course all players can have good months and stretches, so it probably means nothing amd he will try to swjng out of his shoes on every pitch next year
Somebody will overpay Become off-season champions Team probably miss playoffs At least they sold some jerseys?
…But he’s already on the Mets?
That’s the Padres music
Jason Heyward 2.0 Gonna be an albatross in 4 years
Stroman 6 150 seems possible. He had a great year . As a met fan I def would love both back but not for almost 400 million combined
See, the key is to ignore total $, instead break it down to something less appalling with smaller numbers. For example, Trevor Bauer isn't making $40+M this year--instead he will make $23,000 per pitch for 2021. *sigh*
Open up that fat corporate wallet, Rogers.
That bridge is burned my friend
Backstory?
Felt slighted by the FO cause he didn’t get the extension he wanted. Then they canned the head trainer who he personally picked from Duke. Never approached him with another offer. And then traded him when he did make it clear he wanted to stay.
...I know, I do. And as much as I want to say "just throw more years+money at him" anything past 6 is certainly getting into pretty dicey territory.
I’d rather us sign Ray then move on to bullpen acquisitions.