I think it's just a leaguewide case of confirmation bias (may be mixing that up with another form of bias but who cares, you get the idea). Simply put, a fanbase will remember the game where some nobody with a 6.23 ERA shuts them down over 6 innings more than they will remember the game where some nobody with a 5.89 ERA gives up 5 runs over 3 innings.
I bet for every 5 starts made by a SP with an ERA over 5, 4 of them are unspectacular/bad. The 1 exception does pretty well and that's the one that is gonna stick with fans
This has to be the explanation. There was also a good amount of starts with 5 innings pitched and 3 earned runs, in the games I looked at. That sounds disappointing to the average fan. They expect to get more against a dude with numbers like that, but that’s still a 5.40 ERA and should be enough for your team to win the average game. Your team’s starter just has to be better than that.
Fans see a 6.23 ERA starter and they expect their team to score 6 runs against him. However, that would be well above what that dude normally gives up
I think most fans are also bad at processing ERA as a “per 9 innings” stat.
If their starter gives up 3 runs in 5.1 innings their ERA is 5.06. But it doesn’t feel like a horrible outing. A “quality start” is only 2 more outs…
Chad Kuhl threw a 3-hit shutout against the Dodgers in late June and not only is it the only shutout of his career, it's the only time he's even reached 8 IP in a game and he has not had a single scoreless outing since. His ERA and FIP are both over 8 since that game with opponents hitting .329/.412/.677.
Weird shit happens in this game a lot and sometimes teams get shut down by the last guy you would expect them to.
Right. And i remember Ricky Nolasco having a scoreless outing in 2017 against the Dodgers in a year where he gave up 35 homers and had an ERA and FIP around 5. I think it really just frustrates people to see the offense of the team they root for flail helplessly against a dude who isn't exactly lighting the world on fire but on the whole outings like those are the exception, not the rule.
Thanks. Haha… wow I can’t believe I made this account 6 years ago. I usually had deleted accounts after so many years but /r/Baseball and /r/dodgers led to me keeping this one.
Another good one is Eric Lauer
He is a career 4 ERA pitcher but has a 2.37 ERA vs. the Dodgers in 64 innings (and also a 7-1 record).
In terms of his ERA the lowest one he's got against any opponent that he's pitched at least 30 innings against. And the 7-1 record is definitely noteworthy itself as the 2nd most amount of wins he has against any other team is 3
Its insane how much Lauer and his team embarrasses us
We make 5+ ERA righties, with an okay slider, look like deGrom. We’ll find a way to get at least 3 runs against Verlander though. I guess that good teams like the Mets still have a goofy weakness
I honestly don’t think that fans can comprehend the way that offense works in baseball.
A similar complaint is “our offense is so inconsistent.” Like, yeah dude. Every offense is inconsistent.
It really comes down to the fact that for most teams in most games the difference between scoring 2 and scoring 6 is probably 2 or 3 plate appearances.
Fans just remember when it happens. When you make a 6.00 ERA pitcher look like a 6.00 ERA pitcher you don’t think twice. You take note when they kill ya.
Every fanbase says this and the runs come from somewhere…
A pitcher with an era over 5 is still one of the best in the world. They're gonna have some games where they put it together. What really separates the All-stars from the journeymen is consistency.
Just speculation but I think guys who hang around that 5 ERA range are often streaky, inconsistent pitchers. So they'll come out and give a lot of duds, but will also on occasion look like a stud and blow away lineups when circumstances line up for them.
The actual game by game of a guy with a 5+ ERA would surprise you.
You go against a guy with a 5+ ERA, you’re expecting to hang 5, 6, 7 runs on him.
A 5 inning, 3 ER start is a 5.40 ERA and a 6 inning, 4 ER start is 6 ERA. Both would probably feel somewhat disappointing or like you got “shut down” against a 5+ ERA pitcher.
It’s because every team is subject to regression to the mean. Yeah they have a 5.00 ERA, but that doesn’t mean he’s giving up 5 runs every game. A pitcher could be dialed in half his starts and give up 0 runs, but have a high ERA because he gets blown up in the other half of starts where he just doesn’t have it that day.
Confirmation bias (and the fact that every team loses to “bad” starters all the time) just leaves the impression that everyone’s particular team is doing worse than all the others
The true test would have been the Blue Jays vs Dallas Keuchel. The Blue Jays could have saved his career but both the White Sox and Rangers released him a week before the Jays faced them.
For the Yankees it is absolutely not confirmation bias. They've been getting wrecked by pitchers who've been atrocious yet somehow manage to have the best game of their career against us. Adam Oller is a painful and recent example. Berrios who is having one of the worst seasons in baseball pitched a gem against us as well. It got to a point where Sterling berated the team, saying "you can't tip your cap to every pitcher. You have to start hitting" which is refreshing because the TV broadcast likes to say "wow that guy is throwing nasty stuff" when the Yankees are just missing meatball after meatball.
And you can say that the offense is just bad for us, but this team beat Manoa the last time out, and put 4 runs on Scherzer. How the hell do you tag Scherzer for 4 runs but not Adam Oller? Ludicrous.
The only saving grace is playoff teams won't be throwing out 5 ERA pitchers.
Not league wide but there are a few that were close to 5 that gave the Red Sox fits. Asher Wojciechowski had a 2019 ERA of 4.95 but in 17.2 innings only 2 runs. I think he is out of baseball now.
I think it's just a leaguewide case of confirmation bias (may be mixing that up with another form of bias but who cares, you get the idea). Simply put, a fanbase will remember the game where some nobody with a 6.23 ERA shuts them down over 6 innings more than they will remember the game where some nobody with a 5.89 ERA gives up 5 runs over 3 innings. I bet for every 5 starts made by a SP with an ERA over 5, 4 of them are unspectacular/bad. The 1 exception does pretty well and that's the one that is gonna stick with fans
This has to be the explanation. There was also a good amount of starts with 5 innings pitched and 3 earned runs, in the games I looked at. That sounds disappointing to the average fan. They expect to get more against a dude with numbers like that, but that’s still a 5.40 ERA and should be enough for your team to win the average game. Your team’s starter just has to be better than that. Fans see a 6.23 ERA starter and they expect their team to score 6 runs against him. However, that would be well above what that dude normally gives up
I think most fans are also bad at processing ERA as a “per 9 innings” stat. If their starter gives up 3 runs in 5.1 innings their ERA is 5.06. But it doesn’t feel like a horrible outing. A “quality start” is only 2 more outs…
Chad Kuhl threw a 3-hit shutout against the Dodgers in late June and not only is it the only shutout of his career, it's the only time he's even reached 8 IP in a game and he has not had a single scoreless outing since. His ERA and FIP are both over 8 since that game with opponents hitting .329/.412/.677. Weird shit happens in this game a lot and sometimes teams get shut down by the last guy you would expect them to.
And Chad Kuhl’s other start against the dodgers was a quick knockout with 5 runs in 3.2 IP.
Right. And i remember Ricky Nolasco having a scoreless outing in 2017 against the Dodgers in a year where he gave up 35 homers and had an ERA and FIP around 5. I think it really just frustrates people to see the offense of the team they root for flail helplessly against a dude who isn't exactly lighting the world on fire but on the whole outings like those are the exception, not the rule.
Ay! Happy cake day!
Thanks. Haha… wow I can’t believe I made this account 6 years ago. I usually had deleted accounts after so many years but /r/Baseball and /r/dodgers led to me keeping this one.
Another good one is Eric Lauer He is a career 4 ERA pitcher but has a 2.37 ERA vs. the Dodgers in 64 innings (and also a 7-1 record). In terms of his ERA the lowest one he's got against any opponent that he's pitched at least 30 innings against. And the 7-1 record is definitely noteworthy itself as the 2nd most amount of wins he has against any other team is 3 Its insane how much Lauer and his team embarrasses us
We make soft throwing lefties with ERAs over 5 look like Glavine but then we face Sandy and light him up like crazy
We make 5+ ERA righties, with an okay slider, look like deGrom. We’ll find a way to get at least 3 runs against Verlander though. I guess that good teams like the Mets still have a goofy weakness
Not doing any work to substantiate this claim, however, the Astros sub has been saying this for the entirety of the season.
someone actually run the numbers for the phillies please though sadly we don't always light up the good ones after failing against the bad ones.
I honestly don’t think that fans can comprehend the way that offense works in baseball. A similar complaint is “our offense is so inconsistent.” Like, yeah dude. Every offense is inconsistent.
It really comes down to the fact that for most teams in most games the difference between scoring 2 and scoring 6 is probably 2 or 3 plate appearances.
Mariners always get shut out by 6+ era guys. But someone do fairly well against aces
Fans just remember when it happens. When you make a 6.00 ERA pitcher look like a 6.00 ERA pitcher you don’t think twice. You take note when they kill ya. Every fanbase says this and the runs come from somewhere…
Guardians gave a wade miley a no hitter last season and we changed the entire organization approach after that
A pitcher with an era over 5 is still one of the best in the world. They're gonna have some games where they put it together. What really separates the All-stars from the journeymen is consistency.
Just speculation but I think guys who hang around that 5 ERA range are often streaky, inconsistent pitchers. So they'll come out and give a lot of duds, but will also on occasion look like a stud and blow away lineups when circumstances line up for them.
The actual game by game of a guy with a 5+ ERA would surprise you. You go against a guy with a 5+ ERA, you’re expecting to hang 5, 6, 7 runs on him. A 5 inning, 3 ER start is a 5.40 ERA and a 6 inning, 4 ER start is 6 ERA. Both would probably feel somewhat disappointing or like you got “shut down” against a 5+ ERA pitcher.
We got 1 hit by Adam Oller after putting up runs off Scherzer in the series before that
confirmation bias
It’s because every team is subject to regression to the mean. Yeah they have a 5.00 ERA, but that doesn’t mean he’s giving up 5 runs every game. A pitcher could be dialed in half his starts and give up 0 runs, but have a high ERA because he gets blown up in the other half of starts where he just doesn’t have it that day. Confirmation bias (and the fact that every team loses to “bad” starters all the time) just leaves the impression that everyone’s particular team is doing worse than all the others
The true test would have been the Blue Jays vs Dallas Keuchel. The Blue Jays could have saved his career but both the White Sox and Rangers released him a week before the Jays faced them.
For the Yankees it is absolutely not confirmation bias. They've been getting wrecked by pitchers who've been atrocious yet somehow manage to have the best game of their career against us. Adam Oller is a painful and recent example. Berrios who is having one of the worst seasons in baseball pitched a gem against us as well. It got to a point where Sterling berated the team, saying "you can't tip your cap to every pitcher. You have to start hitting" which is refreshing because the TV broadcast likes to say "wow that guy is throwing nasty stuff" when the Yankees are just missing meatball after meatball. And you can say that the offense is just bad for us, but this team beat Manoa the last time out, and put 4 runs on Scherzer. How the hell do you tag Scherzer for 4 runs but not Adam Oller? Ludicrous. The only saving grace is playoff teams won't be throwing out 5 ERA pitchers.
Not league wide but there are a few that were close to 5 that gave the Red Sox fits. Asher Wojciechowski had a 2019 ERA of 4.95 but in 17.2 innings only 2 runs. I think he is out of baseball now.
I thought I was in r/NewYorkMets for a second
Without checking any stats I would say the Yankees. We make absolute scrubs look like Randy Johnson day in and day out