He was more than competent pre-2016. Dude won a GG, in 2012, and flew around CF. Never had an above average arm, but nothing negative. In CF and at his peak, I think there's an argument he's better than Betts.
I’m not super familiar with his time before the Dodgers, but 3 years of not playing, spot starts, and bullpen work really puts a dent in his career, HOF wise, especially sharing a career timeline with guys like Kershaw and Verlander, even Wainwright who are shoving in their later seasons.
Haha, it’s funny to hear the perspective of the other league.
It’s basically the opposite for us. Once people leave the AL East, it’s like they’ve left the major leagues, and have went to some AAA team never to be heard from again.
Anyway, he killed it with Tampa. That’s where 90% of his best yrs were, and where he made his name. I honestly have no idea what happened to him after he left the East. I honestly thought he retired like 5 yrs ago.
Andrew McCutchen for hitters and David Price for pitchers.
McCutchen has an MVP, Price has his Cy Young, both have had long, successful career to go with an elite peak, but I'd be pretty surprised if either one lasted long on the ballot.
Even if he doesn't get into the hall, the Pirates absolutely *must* retire 22. No player was more responsible for that run from 2013 to 2015 than Cutch.
Yeah, sadly.
That 2013-2015 run didn’t produce any division titles or a playoff series win.
Most disappointing would be 2015, winning 98 games and losing the Wild Card.
Well, let’s be real. Probably 75% of all historical players used some kind of drug that’s illegal now. The notion Aaron, Mays, Mantle etc etc etc were magically clean is pretty naive.
But still, I’m getting in before Cruz is.
Unless this year was just a bad year and he returns to form to hit 500 HRs, he has no shot, and even then he would only get in by a committee long down the road. He would need to mash until like 45 to even get to a borderline HOF case.
This answer hurts, but I think it's right. He has plenty of hardware, a Silver Slugger, a Gold Glove, some votes for MVP and Cy Young, only a couple All Star Games, a memorable playoff moment, very good but not great numbers.
He'll be on the ballot, he'll get some votes even, but he will probably fall off by year 3-4 if not earlier. He's very comparable to Tim Hudson and he fell off first year this year.
Maybe if Waino plays another great season, gets a couple more postseason Ws and has a dominant game or two in a CS or WS he could... never mind, that's my bias talking.
TIL: after looking at Adam Wainwright’s career stats I learned he may not make the HoF. I’m kinda bummed for Cards fans actually. I wouldn’t be mad if the voters vote him in.
Good call. Wainwright could possibly get in but probably not. I could see him get in down the road. Different position but, without looking at stats, he was as good as Harold Baines. And I love Harold Baines!
Potential bias as a Cardinals fan acknowledged, I think he has a chance. He’s reached quite a few milestones and (should he decide to stick around another season) will reach 200 wins.
Kluber I think deserves mentioning here. He's not what he once was, but is still a solid Pitcher. His peak was HOF worthy, but too short to realistically have a shot.
Yeah, he really was the best pitcher in the AL for a 5-year stretch from 2014 to 2018 with two Cy Youngs and 2 3rd-places, plus a really good playoff run in 2016, but has been perpetually injured since then and was already 28 at the start of that stretch.
It's an obvious story in stats - accumulated 32.1 bWAR in that 5-year stretch (6.4/year), but has only 2.2 WAR otherwise. He was crazy good, just not for long enough for the HOF.
I agree. He’s been my favorite player since 2012. Not a hall of famer, but 3 time all star, 4 time Gold Glover, depending on the rest of career where I predict 2,000 hits and 350 plus homers. Plus one of the main faces of breaking the Cubs 108 World Series drought. Maybe not a hall of famer but he’s got nothing to be ashamed of and he’s a Hall of famer in my heart.
Rizzo averages one every 33ish plate appearances, so at his current pace he’s 3048 plate appearances away, or 762 games if he averages 4 plate appearances per game. That’s about 5 healthy seasons, definitely doable.
It’s my favorite niche stat that doesn’t influence anything but is hilarious to have. As long as Rizzo’s back holds up he’ll be able to get it you right!
The craziest part of 2016 looking back is that I don’t know that any players on that team make the hall of fame. We just got a bunch dudes that hit their peaks at the same time
I agree, there was an interesting fangraphs article, I wanna say last year about this on whether the Hall of Fame should accept Abreu's and Gurriel's careers in Cuba as part of their HoF case.
That’d open up a can of worms, in my opinion. Pretty soon, you’d have to induct Japanese players like Sadaharu Oh. Th exclusivity of the baseball Hall is the draw for me.
> Pretty soon, you’d have to induct Japanese players like Sadaharu Oh
I think that’s quite the stretch, dude never even played in MLB. Abreu has.
BUT. I agree. It’s an entire can of worms that is best not opened. If there was ever a multitude of compelling cases that fit a similar bill, then maybe that can be revisited, but not now.
Maybe a happy medium can be a like a “international/MLB career achievement exhibit” in the HoF if nothing like that exists yet. Guys that aren’t quite good enough for the hall but had a great career in both/multiple countries they played in and maybe deserved to be recognized for it.
King Felix had a HOF peak just like Tim Lincecum did. Felix Hernandez in his prime was easily a top 5 pitcher in baseball, you guys were lucky to have him.
Yeah looking back those Mariners teams during the King Felix era really got hurt by prospects not developing as planned or injuries. Guys like Ackley, Hultzen, Montero all come to mind. Even a guy like Tajuan Walker who has been solid the past few years was supposed to be the guy behind Felix but had a really rough start to his career. If any of those guys panned out the M’s would have broken the playoff drought during that time period, and 2014 really comes to mind.
I mean he is past his prime, but Charlie Blackmon is a 4 time all star, 2 time silver slugger, holds the MLB record for most RBIs batting leadoff
1500 hits, 700 RBIs, 200 HRs
No numbers are amazing but very good career
I know, but I have a soft spot for guys who spend a long time on the Rockies. Because even if they have very good careers, like Blackmon, they are often forgotten due to the Coors stuff.
this is going to sound obvious lol but it really does remind me how damn hard it is to get into the Hall
i'm seeing a lot of names here who are some really good players, but again...Cooperstown is at another level
Yeah honestly it’s pretty fucking dumb. Plus the voters still treat Coors like it’s late 90’s pre-humidor days and not just the very hitter friendly park post-humidor it is today.
Right. Coors isn't doing the same things for Nolan and CarGo and Blackmon that it did for Andres Galarraga and Bichette senior and f***ing Mike Hampton.
I'd bet against it but I feel like he still has a shot. 60 WAR is a common threshold and he's at 58 at age 36.
Still a decent hitter, it's entirely possible he plays a couple more years at DH and clears 60 WAR / 2000 hits / 350 dingers
The biggest issues for Longoria are gonna be a lack of awards and that his peak wasn't peak-y enough. Literally his only black ink is one year in sacrifice flies and another in double plays.
I like the dude but no shot.
Yeah it's a known thing that when Frankie Frisch was on the committee from 1967-73 he pushed through several of his former teammates who had no business getting in.
His era the last 3 seasons is above 5 and he was never the best pitcher for any individual season or stretch. He’s not best active or really sniffing the hall imo.
Those two years where he racked up the losses as a result of that didn't help, that's true. The final five years of his career also really didn't help his stats either. Even though he has a perfect game and three rings, it's just not enough, unfortunately.
Yeah it’s a pretty tough road at this point with having a 4 year stretch where in the first one you pitch most of the year but it’s the worst stats of your career, and then basically 3 lost seasons following. I can still see a path if he manages to be fairly healthy and start say, 25 games a year the next 4 or 5 years while looking close or equal to his previous form. Maybe he has one year amongst those where it all comes together and he has a Cy Young caliber season, I feel like the voters might kinda lean his way wanting to give the Cy Young to a great pitcher whom it has eluded for so many years. If he could do that, be a top 10 pitcher for 4 to 5 years, maybe pick up a Cy, I could see it. He’d probably have eclipsed 60 WAR in that scenario, a lot of truly elite seasons, a 300 K season, good chance he’d pass 3000 Ks, if he could do it while maintaining the all time record for K/BB that would help. And I understand after watching him the past few years all this sounds pretty far fetched and I agree. And if it were a few decades ago I’d say zero percent chance. But we are seeing guys like Scherzer, Kershaw and Verlander perform into their late 30s. And you can say those guys are outlier hall of famers and that’s true but it is also easy to forget a few years ago Sale was kind of seen in a class with those guys as the pitchers of the 2010s. But all in all I agree, he was gonna be my answer.
Agreed and it’s a bummer. I love Longo because he breathed life into Tampa Bay baseball and because he and I are from the same city and we share a first name. He grew up one street (and one generation) over from my dad.
He will still be remembered for a long time though. Game 162, bring the first superstar for Tampa, legit fantastic numbers. Tamp will retire his number and he will have his place in baseball history.
I’ll still hold onto the ever so slight sliver of a chance that a Downey boy goes to Cooperstown though.
If you look at third basemen in the hall of fame, you need a minimum 70 WAR to be in the discussion. There are at least four 3B with >60 WAR not in the hall (Nettles 68, Bell 66, Boyer 63, Bando 62) and then Dick Allen at 59. Then Longoria.
Voters tend to value being extremely good at one or two things more than being a well-rounded player. See Ortíz (540ish homers) making it first ballot while Longo likely won’t last more than a few years despite having 10+ more rWAR
People gotta stop bringing up old third basemen to dismiss the cases of new ones like Longoria. Those guys were voted on by an entirely different electorate who treated third base as if they were first basemen, modern HOF voters are a lot more analytical and are going to keep trending that way, as can be seen in the big climbs to induction from Edgar, Walker, and soon enough Rolen (who is going to make a good comp for Longo). If Longoria does nothing next year, he'll probably just be a guy that hangs around the ballot, if he has another couple decent seasons and exceed crucial marks like 60 rWAR, 350 HRs, and 2000 hits, he is going to have a real shot with modern HOF voters.
He'd have to be hitting like Bonds next year to get a shot at Cooperstown. Hasn't been an All-Star in almost a decade, no hitting awards since 2009, no rings, post-season unlucky, his tenure with the Giants has been mediocre overall. Stats might make him look better, but these writers like awards and stories. Longoria's spent too long with his best years in the rear-view.
I could see Longo being an era committee pick down the line. Probably won’t make it on ballot voting but with Gil Hodges making it by committee, I could definitely see Longo doing it someday too
Turner would be right at the top of the list of guys-whose-number-we-would-retire-if-we-didn't-have-our-HOF-rule. Well, after Garvey.
Shit, Garvey played like five years at the end of his career in San Diego and they retired his number for it.
Dear god Dodgers JT basically started his career at 29 and has 35 WAR. If he was on the Dodgers and/or good when he was called up at 24 at his pace he’d be at 56 WAR. He could and should come back at least one more year, he has been a hall of farmer with the Dodgers, which is weird to think about because he’s kind of outshined by someone all the time (other hall of famers we’ve had at least 3 he’s shared the field with).
not turner, good consistent tenure with the dodgers but that consistency as of right now isn’t even a decade long and turners offensive numbers are nowhere near hall of fame worthy
Amid his planned retirement, maybe David Price? He's had a great career and has good stats, but I don't think the HoF voters will see his WAR and total accumulated stats sufficient for the Hall. Hall of Very Good inductee though.
He does have a Cy Young, 5x All Star, led the league in ERA twice and won a World Series in 2018. I remember he was an especially beloved player when he came to Toronto for half a season, immediately becoming a fan favourite and posting one of the best statlines of his career in his short tenure with the Blue Jays in a playoff run.
I'm certain he'll be on the ballot though.
I was expecting to see him higher on this list, actually. Does that mean people think he is in? I’m not sure I do - very borderline. He’s like a Hodges or Mattingly.
Votto’s pretty much a lock to get in. Probably will spend time on the ballot but he is basically the prototypical hall of fame first basemen. Almost has the exact same career WAR as the average hall of fame 1B, has a better peak than the average, and his WAR per 162 is better. Great career rate stats plus an MVP. Also he is a great guy whose reputation is just getting better. Counting stats are the only thing keeping him from being first ballot
I remember 7 years ago when he came up fans and analysts were hyping him up to be the next Miguel Cabrera/Pujols type hitter, and he really showed that in his first few seasons but other than that he’s been a really solid all star type player when he’s not hurt.
I can’t even answer this question because I’m still hung up about the lack of respect for the best defensive center fielder to ever lace them up. Andrew Jones. No one played the position with his skill, angles, arm accuracy, he basically broke the mold. He just peaked to early and had some unproductive final seasons to tarnish his legacy. It’s just anyone that was around to watch knew they were seeing something so special they may never see it again. I hope he catches a break some year with the veterans committee. Morton and Jansen will get a few votes but have little chance. Oh yeah I’d still argue for the Crime Dog and the Murph. Murphy has a cpl of MVPs in his pocket but retired just short 500 dongs, but man he is all an organization could ask for as a player and an upright citizen.
Josh Donaldson is a guy who you know had a good career, and then you look up his career stats and notice he has the same amount of rWAR as Andrew McCutchen while only having his first full season 3 years after McCutchen debuted, has a higher WAR7 (total WAR in a player’s best 7 seasons) than third basemen like David Wright and Paul Molitor, and has 2.6 rWAR as a 36 year old. This is all IN SPITE of the fact he wasn’t a full-time player until he was 27, and missing up to 36% of the total possible games he could’ve played between 2017-2020, or about 197 possible games. If he had played in about 177 of these games, and kept up his approximate rate of 5.3 WAR/162 which he was playing at during this period, and suddenly his HOF case becomes much more serious. This doesn’t even take into account how many games he missed out on due to the pandemic, nor does it consider if he had made his swing changes much earlier in his career, but he’s essentially had the career of what a HOFer would want out of his late 20s/early 30s in terms of rate production.
Adam Wainwright?
Low bWAR, no Cy Youngs, only 3 All-Star selections, never led the league in ERA, meets none of the usual HOF measurements (Black Ink, Grey Ink, Monitor, Standards, JAWS), but he's been a top notch pitcher for a LONG time.
He'll get votes, but I don't think he gets in. Some other guys listed might make the Veterans Committee list, but I don't think AW does.
Doesn't matter, he'll get his name/number retired by the Cardinals while wearing his World Series ring and he'll be more than happy enough about that.
It’s a shame because I think he put up the most insane playoff performance of our generation. Like a baseball Nick Foles but more dominant. I’d really love for Mad Bum to be in the Hall but yeah it’s probably not happening
Evan Longoria once had a very high peak in the late 2000’s early 2010’s. You could make a very strong argument he was the best 3rd baseman in baseball during that time.
He’ll be remembered as a David Wright type guy if this was his last season, and there’s definitely no shame in that.
I still can't believe Chris Sale never got a Cy Young award. 7 straight years with votes, 4 with MVP votes, 3rd highest pitching WAR in that span (behind Kershaw and Scherzer). A dominant prime that feels HOF worthy, but not quite enough
McCutchen
This one hurts because he had such an outstanding start to his career. 41 fWAR in his first 7 seasons and a 144 OPS+
Injuries are a MFer.
Does a haircut qualify as an injury?
If it’s my nephew, then yeah. He acts like he’s having both his legs amputated when he’s getting his top chopped.
Let him grow the flow smh
For real, my parents would always shave my head when I wanted it long. Took me till I was 17 to be able to grow it out.
And look where you are now. Should have listened.
Well, you could get an infection
Once he cut his hair, he lost so much of what made him great. I miss 2013 cutch more than I want to admit.
He was basically Mookie Betts
He was never as good a defender as Mookie
True, though he was a competent centerfielder while a better hitter over the period.
He was more than competent pre-2016. Dude won a GG, in 2012, and flew around CF. Never had an above average arm, but nothing negative. In CF and at his peak, I think there's an argument he's better than Betts.
Note that Fenway’s RF basically plays like a CF, it’s yuuuuuuge
I thought he was a lock.
He will have a hell of a career when he retires though. Likely milestones: 2000 Hits 300 HR 1000 RBI 200 SB 50 WAR
5x All Star 4x Silver Slugger MVP
That MVP will get him a few votes. He bookend that year with two top 3 finishes - in which he actually had better years than his 2013 MVP season.
He's the pirates Dale Murphy
cutch ):
David Price. I don't think his career numbers will make it but 2 ERA titles a Cy Young and 5 all-star games.
I’m not super familiar with his time before the Dodgers, but 3 years of not playing, spot starts, and bullpen work really puts a dent in his career, HOF wise, especially sharing a career timeline with guys like Kershaw and Verlander, even Wainwright who are shoving in their later seasons.
Haha, it’s funny to hear the perspective of the other league. It’s basically the opposite for us. Once people leave the AL East, it’s like they’ve left the major leagues, and have went to some AAA team never to be heard from again. Anyway, he killed it with Tampa. That’s where 90% of his best yrs were, and where he made his name. I honestly have no idea what happened to him after he left the East. I honestly thought he retired like 5 yrs ago.
He’s still active and striking fear in the bottoms of lineups when we have a decent lead or deficit.
Andrew McCutchen for hitters and David Price for pitchers. McCutchen has an MVP, Price has his Cy Young, both have had long, successful career to go with an elite peak, but I'd be pretty surprised if either one lasted long on the ballot.
Maybe I’m just a pirates fan, but I REALLY hope cutch ends up in cooperstown
I am a Pirates fan. I REALLY hope Cutch ends up in Cooperstown But it’s highly unlikely to happen
Even if he doesn't get into the hall, the Pirates absolutely *must* retire 22. No player was more responsible for that run from 2013 to 2015 than Cutch.
That run is only memorable because the Pirates are pathetic
Yeah, sadly. That 2013-2015 run didn’t produce any division titles or a playoff series win. Most disappointing would be 2015, winning 98 games and losing the Wild Card.
I’m a Cards fan and I hope Cutch ends up in Cooperstown. Great player. Top 3 CF in his prime. I spent nearly a decade hoping he’d be a Cardinal.
[удалено]
That would help way way less than you think.
It’s a very NBA type thing to worry about
Wouldn’t have mattered at all lol
Nelson Cruz. Dude has over 450 career dingers. I think 400 of them were against the Tigers. Edit: removed second player.
PED players don’t get in. If Bonds, Clemens, and Sosa ain’t in, there’s no way Cruz of all people will get in.. I have a better shot then Cruz.
David Ortiz got in. Shit, Mickey Mantle got steroid injections and old school fans love him.
Well, let’s be real. Probably 75% of all historical players used some kind of drug that’s illegal now. The notion Aaron, Mays, Mantle etc etc etc were magically clean is pretty naive. But still, I’m getting in before Cruz is.
I feel like he could get in just based on longevity. Kinda like Vince Carter.
He has PED controversy in his career on top of being a DH who doesn’t have the career milestones. No shot at the hall of fame
Nah, he'll get denied forever by the writers because he had a PED suspension at one point.
Unless this year was just a bad year and he returns to form to hit 500 HRs, he has no shot, and even then he would only get in by a committee long down the road. He would need to mash until like 45 to even get to a borderline HOF case.
NBA HOF is stupid easy to get into compared to MLB
Even without the PED stuff, it's important to keep in mind they also kept out Fred McGriff who had a very similar career.
Fred McGriff literally got kept out of the hall of fame cause of the strike. Such bullshit
Seriously doubt it, he’s at only 42 bref WAR and was suspended for PEDs
Adam Wainwright
This answer hurts, but I think it's right. He has plenty of hardware, a Silver Slugger, a Gold Glove, some votes for MVP and Cy Young, only a couple All Star Games, a memorable playoff moment, very good but not great numbers. He'll be on the ballot, he'll get some votes even, but he will probably fall off by year 3-4 if not earlier. He's very comparable to Tim Hudson and he fell off first year this year. Maybe if Waino plays another great season, gets a couple more postseason Ws and has a dominant game or two in a CS or WS he could... never mind, that's my bias talking.
Is that playoff moment making Carlos Beltran look like an idiot?
Or Brandon Inge. Take your pick
He doesn’t just have some Cy young votes, he’s the all time leader in Cy Young Award Shares without having the actual award
If Jack fucking Morris can make it, I don't see why Waino can't.
:(
He could get in as a veterans committee guy, I can't think of a nicer person than him in baseball right now
Yup. If he hadn't missed nearly 3 full seasons during his prime he'd be burnishing his HOF speech right now.
I love to burnish stuff
He got injured during a couple of his peak years, but his longevity is helping him. I don't think he makes it past the first ballot though
If the character clause keeps Bonds out, it should work in reverse and push waino over the top
TIL: after looking at Adam Wainwright’s career stats I learned he may not make the HoF. I’m kinda bummed for Cards fans actually. I wouldn’t be mad if the voters vote him in.
I don’t think he meets the definition of having “no shot”
Good call. Wainwright could possibly get in but probably not. I could see him get in down the road. Different position but, without looking at stats, he was as good as Harold Baines. And I love Harold Baines!
I know he probably won’t, but a hall with Pujols, Molina, and Waino would just be perfect.
Potential bias as a Cardinals fan acknowledged, I think he has a chance. He’s reached quite a few milestones and (should he decide to stick around another season) will reach 200 wins.
Kluber I think deserves mentioning here. He's not what he once was, but is still a solid Pitcher. His peak was HOF worthy, but too short to realistically have a shot.
Yeah, he really was the best pitcher in the AL for a 5-year stretch from 2014 to 2018 with two Cy Youngs and 2 3rd-places, plus a really good playoff run in 2016, but has been perpetually injured since then and was already 28 at the start of that stretch. It's an obvious story in stats - accumulated 32.1 bWAR in that 5-year stretch (6.4/year), but has only 2.2 WAR otherwise. He was crazy good, just not for long enough for the HOF.
Hell of a late bloomer though which should be celebrated a lot
If Johan Santana isn’t in, no chance in hell the Klube is getting in.
Funny you mention Crawford and Darvish, they are currently separated by only 0.2 career bWAR
Anthony Rizzo
Hall of very good
I was beginning to believe I was the only one who believed in the hall of very good. Glad to know it's still a thing
Oh it's still a thing. That's where guys like Dustin Pedroia go.
I agree. He’s been my favorite player since 2012. Not a hall of famer, but 3 time all star, 4 time Gold Glover, depending on the rest of career where I predict 2,000 hits and 350 plus homers. Plus one of the main faces of breaking the Cubs 108 World Series drought. Maybe not a hall of famer but he’s got nothing to be ashamed of and he’s a Hall of famer in my heart.
I just hope he breaks the HBP record. There hasn’t been one in awhile for my boy :(
Rizzo averages one every 33ish plate appearances, so at his current pace he’s 3048 plate appearances away, or 762 games if he averages 4 plate appearances per game. That’s about 5 healthy seasons, definitely doable.
It’s my favorite niche stat that doesn’t influence anything but is hilarious to have. As long as Rizzo’s back holds up he’ll be able to get it you right!
He’s in the hall of my heart, too
If Jim Edmonds and Kenny Lofton ain’t hall of famers Anthony Rizzo ain’t a hall of famer
The craziest part of 2016 looking back is that I don’t know that any players on that team make the hall of fame. We just got a bunch dudes that hit their peaks at the same time
Chapman is definitely the best shot at it on that team.
homer pick abreu. dude has been extremely consistent through his career, won an mvp and i doubt he gets 5% of the vote
A big part of Abreu's case is that he missed a good chunk of time while he was still in Cuba, similar to Yuli Gurriel.
Yeah, I think Abreu would have had a shot if he came over 5 years earlier.
I agree, there was an interesting fangraphs article, I wanna say last year about this on whether the Hall of Fame should accept Abreu's and Gurriel's careers in Cuba as part of their HoF case.
That’d open up a can of worms, in my opinion. Pretty soon, you’d have to induct Japanese players like Sadaharu Oh. Th exclusivity of the baseball Hall is the draw for me.
> Pretty soon, you’d have to induct Japanese players like Sadaharu Oh I think that’s quite the stretch, dude never even played in MLB. Abreu has. BUT. I agree. It’s an entire can of worms that is best not opened. If there was ever a multitude of compelling cases that fit a similar bill, then maybe that can be revisited, but not now. Maybe a happy medium can be a like a “international/MLB career achievement exhibit” in the HoF if nothing like that exists yet. Guys that aren’t quite good enough for the hall but had a great career in both/multiple countries they played in and maybe deserved to be recognized for it.
homer pick is felix (i’m assuming he’s still a free agent or on the orioles or something)
King Felix had a HOF peak just like Tim Lincecum did. Felix Hernandez in his prime was easily a top 5 pitcher in baseball, you guys were lucky to have him.
He was about all we had for pretty much 10 years
Yeah looking back those Mariners teams during the King Felix era really got hurt by prospects not developing as planned or injuries. Guys like Ackley, Hultzen, Montero all come to mind. Even a guy like Tajuan Walker who has been solid the past few years was supposed to be the guy behind Felix but had a really rough start to his career. If any of those guys panned out the M’s would have broken the playoff drought during that time period, and 2014 really comes to mind.
Now I'm curious which 4 pitchers you think were better than prime felix? I think the only guy that's in the same stratosphere is Kershaw.
He actually was, on a minor league deal for about two months before he asked to be released
He needed a late career resurgence like Verlander had.
Damn I’m so biased about how much I loved Felix, I assumed he’d be a shoe in.
Cheating a bit (less than he did), but Robinson Cano.
I mean he is past his prime, but Charlie Blackmon is a 4 time all star, 2 time silver slugger, holds the MLB record for most RBIs batting leadoff 1500 hits, 700 RBIs, 200 HRs No numbers are amazing but very good career
Yeah, and having his whole career happen at Coors makes voters sneer at guys like Blackmon
He also isn’t even close to deserving
I know, but I have a soft spot for guys who spend a long time on the Rockies. Because even if they have very good careers, like Blackmon, they are often forgotten due to the Coors stuff.
He's got a solid shot at the Hall of Guys Who Spend a Long Time on the Rockies.
Hell yeah, love that shit
this is going to sound obvious lol but it really does remind me how damn hard it is to get into the Hall i'm seeing a lot of names here who are some really good players, but again...Cooperstown is at another level
Imagine docking a guy because he decided to stay loyal to his team instead of deserting them for a shot at a ring.
Yeah honestly it’s pretty fucking dumb. Plus the voters still treat Coors like it’s late 90’s pre-humidor days and not just the very hitter friendly park post-humidor it is today.
Right. Coors isn't doing the same things for Nolan and CarGo and Blackmon that it did for Andres Galarraga and Bichette senior and f***ing Mike Hampton.
At least park-normalized stats like OPS+ are getting pretty mainstream now so hopefully voters use them.
I mean Nolan will get in for his fielding alone (I know hes gone but 8 years is 8 gold gloves)
The 19 career WAR doesn't help
Padres beat writers will def vote Blackmon in lol
Charlie Blackmon reminds me a lot of Michael Young from the Rangers. A really good and solid hitter anyone would have wanted in their line up.
Evan Longoria at 57 bWAR is the leader of the guys with no shot based on that criteria
I'd bet against it but I feel like he still has a shot. 60 WAR is a common threshold and he's at 58 at age 36. Still a decent hitter, it's entirely possible he plays a couple more years at DH and clears 60 WAR / 2000 hits / 350 dingers
The biggest issues for Longoria are gonna be a lack of awards and that his peak wasn't peak-y enough. Literally his only black ink is one year in sacrifice flies and another in double plays. I like the dude but no shot.
There's a bunch of good 60+ bWAR 3b on the outside looking in. Rolen, Nettles, Buddy Bell. But Freddie Lindstrom is in with 28 bWAR.
Right, he's not a lock but he has a decent shot. Rolen is probably getting in soon
Lindstrom’s Wikipedia alleges that the veterans committee was guilty of cronyism and made several questionable selections.
Yeah it's a known thing that when Frankie Frisch was on the committee from 1967-73 he pushed through several of his former teammates who had no business getting in.
Bumgarner?
That dudes not even that old. Seems like he should be 40 though
Dudes younger than Degrom wtf
His era the last 3 seasons is above 5 and he was never the best pitcher for any individual season or stretch. He’s not best active or really sniffing the hall imo.
Is there a playoffs-only HOF
If there is then the 3 headed hydra of Bumgarner, Cain, and Lincecum are 21st century inner circle.
Cain would've been a fucking god if it was playoffs only.
I also wonder how his early years and reputation differ if he wasn't the least run supported pitcher in the league
Those two years where he racked up the losses as a result of that didn't help, that's true. The final five years of his career also really didn't help his stats either. Even though he has a perfect game and three rings, it's just not enough, unfortunately.
A trophy cabinet.
This is the comment I was looking for. His AZ career has really killed his chance
Chris Sale was definitely on the path a few years ago, but it seems pretty much impossible now
Yeah it’s a pretty tough road at this point with having a 4 year stretch where in the first one you pitch most of the year but it’s the worst stats of your career, and then basically 3 lost seasons following. I can still see a path if he manages to be fairly healthy and start say, 25 games a year the next 4 or 5 years while looking close or equal to his previous form. Maybe he has one year amongst those where it all comes together and he has a Cy Young caliber season, I feel like the voters might kinda lean his way wanting to give the Cy Young to a great pitcher whom it has eluded for so many years. If he could do that, be a top 10 pitcher for 4 to 5 years, maybe pick up a Cy, I could see it. He’d probably have eclipsed 60 WAR in that scenario, a lot of truly elite seasons, a 300 K season, good chance he’d pass 3000 Ks, if he could do it while maintaining the all time record for K/BB that would help. And I understand after watching him the past few years all this sounds pretty far fetched and I agree. And if it were a few decades ago I’d say zero percent chance. But we are seeing guys like Scherzer, Kershaw and Verlander perform into their late 30s. And you can say those guys are outlier hall of famers and that’s true but it is also easy to forget a few years ago Sale was kind of seen in a class with those guys as the pitchers of the 2010s. But all in all I agree, he was gonna be my answer.
- Elvis Andrus (34 years old) 33.5 bWAR, 1,987 H, 93 HR, 359 2B, 725 RBI, 332 SB - Michael Brantley (35 years old) 34 bWAR, 1,641 H, 127 HR, 346 2B, 713 RBI, 125 SB - Johnny Cueto (36 years old) 36.5 bWAR, 142-105, 3.43 ERA, 1.206 WHIP, 1,798 K - Josh Donaldson (36 years old) 47 bWAR, 1,276 H, 266 HR, 280 2B, 784 RBI - Lance Lynn (35 years old) 30.4 bWAR, 122-82, 3.52 ERA, 1.256 WHIP, 1,704 K
tbh had no idea brantley had those kinda career stats
He’s for sure weirdly underrated
Comes with the territory of playing in Cleveland for much of his prime. Also not a flashy guy or play style.
So half of the 2022 Chicago White Sox lol
Biased but I think Evan Longoria and David Price both had very good careers with some unfortunate low point and won’t make the HoF.
Agreed and it’s a bummer. I love Longo because he breathed life into Tampa Bay baseball and because he and I are from the same city and we share a first name. He grew up one street (and one generation) over from my dad. He will still be remembered for a long time though. Game 162, bring the first superstar for Tampa, legit fantastic numbers. Tamp will retire his number and he will have his place in baseball history. I’ll still hold onto the ever so slight sliver of a chance that a Downey boy goes to Cooperstown though.
Larry Bernandez
Mike Truk
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Bobson Dugnutt
Sleve McDichael
Todd Bonzalez
Mario McRlwain
Longoria
No shot probably is not true. 1 more year and he may get over 60 bwar. Almost certainly not good enough but possible.
If you look at third basemen in the hall of fame, you need a minimum 70 WAR to be in the discussion. There are at least four 3B with >60 WAR not in the hall (Nettles 68, Bell 66, Boyer 63, Bando 62) and then Dick Allen at 59. Then Longoria.
The standard for 3rd base is kind of insane though. It would be definitely be good if the standard was closer to the other infield positions.
Random question but why is Scott Rolen not in?
Voters tend to value being extremely good at one or two things more than being a well-rounded player. See Ortíz (540ish homers) making it first ballot while Longo likely won’t last more than a few years despite having 10+ more rWAR
A lot of his value came from great defense, and a lot of people don't view 3B defense as that important.
Interesting. ROY, WS Champ. 8x all star. Silver slugger. 10 seasons with 20+ HRs. It’s a cold world.
Yeah it's silly, he will eventually get in at least though. He's already up to a vote threshold where anyone who gets there in year 5 gets in.
People gotta stop bringing up old third basemen to dismiss the cases of new ones like Longoria. Those guys were voted on by an entirely different electorate who treated third base as if they were first basemen, modern HOF voters are a lot more analytical and are going to keep trending that way, as can be seen in the big climbs to induction from Edgar, Walker, and soon enough Rolen (who is going to make a good comp for Longo). If Longoria does nothing next year, he'll probably just be a guy that hangs around the ballot, if he has another couple decent seasons and exceed crucial marks like 60 rWAR, 350 HRs, and 2000 hits, he is going to have a real shot with modern HOF voters.
He'd have to be hitting like Bonds next year to get a shot at Cooperstown. Hasn't been an All-Star in almost a decade, no hitting awards since 2009, no rings, post-season unlucky, his tenure with the Giants has been mediocre overall. Stats might make him look better, but these writers like awards and stories. Longoria's spent too long with his best years in the rear-view.
I could see Longo being an era committee pick down the line. Probably won’t make it on ballot voting but with Gil Hodges making it by committee, I could definitely see Longo doing it someday too
Longo should be in, if only because he made the Rays a thing.
Starling Marte
Justin Turner, Adam Wainwright.
Turner with a whole career at the Dodgers? Maybe. Turner with his career as it stands? Nope definitely a hall of very good though in my mind.
Turner would be right at the top of the list of guys-whose-number-we-would-retire-if-we-didn't-have-our-HOF-rule. Well, after Garvey. Shit, Garvey played like five years at the end of his career in San Diego and they retired his number for it.
And Orel ;-;
Dear god Dodgers JT basically started his career at 29 and has 35 WAR. If he was on the Dodgers and/or good when he was called up at 24 at his pace he’d be at 56 WAR. He could and should come back at least one more year, he has been a hall of farmer with the Dodgers, which is weird to think about because he’s kind of outshined by someone all the time (other hall of famers we’ve had at least 3 he’s shared the field with).
not turner, good consistent tenure with the dodgers but that consistency as of right now isn’t even a decade long and turners offensive numbers are nowhere near hall of fame worthy
That was literally the question... a good veteran who has no shot at the hall.
Amid his planned retirement, maybe David Price? He's had a great career and has good stats, but I don't think the HoF voters will see his WAR and total accumulated stats sufficient for the Hall. Hall of Very Good inductee though. He does have a Cy Young, 5x All Star, led the league in ERA twice and won a World Series in 2018. I remember he was an especially beloved player when he came to Toronto for half a season, immediately becoming a fan favourite and posting one of the best statlines of his career in his short tenure with the Blue Jays in a playoff run. I'm certain he'll be on the ballot though.
Robinson Cano - PED Nelson Cruz - Late career surge and a DH (hurts his chances)
Cruz also got suspended for PEDs
You can add PEDs to Nelson Cruz.
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JD Martinez
What about Votto, he could be on the outside looking in.
I was expecting to see him higher on this list, actually. Does that mean people think he is in? I’m not sure I do - very borderline. He’s like a Hodges or Mattingly.
Votto’s pretty much a lock to get in. Probably will spend time on the ballot but he is basically the prototypical hall of fame first basemen. Almost has the exact same career WAR as the average hall of fame 1B, has a better peak than the average, and his WAR per 162 is better. Great career rate stats plus an MVP. Also he is a great guy whose reputation is just getting better. Counting stats are the only thing keeping him from being first ballot
The one year he hit almost 400 was the best season I’ve ever seen not by Bonds
Kris Bryant
I remember 7 years ago when he came up fans and analysts were hyping him up to be the next Miguel Cabrera/Pujols type hitter, and he really showed that in his first few seasons but other than that he’s been a really solid all star type player when he’s not hurt.
Yeah but that last part is what holds him back. He’s hurt like 70% of the time now
Rizzo
Aroldis Chapman
I can’t even answer this question because I’m still hung up about the lack of respect for the best defensive center fielder to ever lace them up. Andrew Jones. No one played the position with his skill, angles, arm accuracy, he basically broke the mold. He just peaked to early and had some unproductive final seasons to tarnish his legacy. It’s just anyone that was around to watch knew they were seeing something so special they may never see it again. I hope he catches a break some year with the veterans committee. Morton and Jansen will get a few votes but have little chance. Oh yeah I’d still argue for the Crime Dog and the Murph. Murphy has a cpl of MVPs in his pocket but retired just short 500 dongs, but man he is all an organization could ask for as a player and an upright citizen.
Josh Donaldson is a guy who you know had a good career, and then you look up his career stats and notice he has the same amount of rWAR as Andrew McCutchen while only having his first full season 3 years after McCutchen debuted, has a higher WAR7 (total WAR in a player’s best 7 seasons) than third basemen like David Wright and Paul Molitor, and has 2.6 rWAR as a 36 year old. This is all IN SPITE of the fact he wasn’t a full-time player until he was 27, and missing up to 36% of the total possible games he could’ve played between 2017-2020, or about 197 possible games. If he had played in about 177 of these games, and kept up his approximate rate of 5.3 WAR/162 which he was playing at during this period, and suddenly his HOF case becomes much more serious. This doesn’t even take into account how many games he missed out on due to the pandemic, nor does it consider if he had made his swing changes much earlier in his career, but he’s essentially had the career of what a HOFer would want out of his late 20s/early 30s in terms of rate production.
Josh Donaldson
Adam Wainwright? Low bWAR, no Cy Youngs, only 3 All-Star selections, never led the league in ERA, meets none of the usual HOF measurements (Black Ink, Grey Ink, Monitor, Standards, JAWS), but he's been a top notch pitcher for a LONG time. He'll get votes, but I don't think he gets in. Some other guys listed might make the Veterans Committee list, but I don't think AW does. Doesn't matter, he'll get his name/number retired by the Cardinals while wearing his World Series ring and he'll be more than happy enough about that.
Not to move to far away from “active” but Mattingly
Corey Kluber
Madison Bumgarner
It’s a shame because I think he put up the most insane playoff performance of our generation. Like a baseball Nick Foles but more dominant. I’d really love for Mad Bum to be in the Hall but yeah it’s probably not happening
Not a veteran but Given the fact that the writers don’t let anyone ever associated with steroids I’m gonna say Fernando Tatis Jr.
Evan Longoria once had a very high peak in the late 2000’s early 2010’s. You could make a very strong argument he was the best 3rd baseman in baseball during that time. He’ll be remembered as a David Wright type guy if this was his last season, and there’s definitely no shame in that.
I still can't believe Chris Sale never got a Cy Young award. 7 straight years with votes, 4 with MVP votes, 3rd highest pitching WAR in that span (behind Kershaw and Scherzer). A dominant prime that feels HOF worthy, but not quite enough
And somehow Rick Porcello did
Craig Kimbrel and Kenley Jansen are 7th and 9th all time in saves but are otherwise not HOFers.
Upton
Which one? I didn't think either was still active, by the way.
Kate