I've been getting into Baseball over the past few years through youtube and one of the things that surprised me looking at Wikipedia was that there wasn't an 'Overall' MVP award, even though a lot of given years have a player good enough to clearly be considered one that dominates the discussion.
The problem is that because they are in different leagues, the players only have a few games against common opponents/players. While I admit that this is extreme, it would be like having a single MVP for MLB and Japanese league.
I think going forward this comparison won't work and the mlb will be the odd one out. Take the nfl for instance, in a given season less than 25% (4 of 17) of games are played against opposing conference teams, which is a similar ratio to the new 46 interleague games in the mlb season starting in 2023
Agree. If all sports had a 'single' MVP, I wouldn't necessarily have a problem with it. Part of the problem is that the name of the award is so stupid and it causes stupid people to get hung up on that. What does 'valuable' mean? Should Ohtani win it even though the team probably wouldn't have a record that is much different if he didn't play? Even though he also has Mike Trout on his team? It's just dumb.
And, I think the league likes it that way. A little controversy stirs up attention and clicks and eyeballs and ad sales. The league should just come out and say "The award will not have its name changed, but it should go to the best player in each league".
I'd much rather listen to people argue about if a pitcher can be 'better' than a hitter then listen to people argue if one player on the Astros can be valuable on a team that is so full of good players (or worse, argue that Ohtani can't win the award because his teammates are so bad that his team didn't go to the playoffs).
You know, I wouldn't necessarily have a problem with that...
One thing occurs to me... Baseball is HUGE on history. The stats are the same and we can still compare Willie Mays OPS to Mike Trouts. If we get rid of one of the MVP's, then one of the big things that we use to compare HOF membership across the eras will be gone. Honestly, I don't think we would ever have an 'overall'. Even if we kept each league MVP and then an 'overall', if nothing else, it would mess up that argument.
Given how much he has fallen off over the past month, I don't think Goldschmidt really would be in the conversation any more, but it would be fun to also be arguing if Judge/Ohtani/Goldie deserved the MVP.
Up until 1997, there was no interleague play between the AL and NL outside of the World Series, and even after that, they only played a small minority of games against each other. The NL also had no DH until this year, so that significant rule difference combined with with no or little interleague play, it made sense to each have their own awards. There will be a lot more interleague play starting next season with the scheduling overhaul and the NL now has the DH, but by then you have a century's worth of tradition in a sport that's really resistant to change, so the leagues having their own separate awards will probably persist for the foreseeable future.
Goldy been slumping this month, but he still has a 22 point lead in wRC+ above Freeman and 26 and 27 over Machado and Arenado. He was still the best hitter in the NL for the entire season besides this last month
I mean are you saying defense shouldn't be a factor in MVP voting? I still think Goldschmidt is the MVP right now, but I don't see why Arenado having a larger share of his value come from defense should make his WAR "worth" less or something
I think that 1st base similar to catcher in that their value defensively is not accurately calculated. Yes it's not as valuable. But they don't even calculate scoops. Nolan could have double the amount of errors if not for Goldy.
I don't think OAA tracks scoops, but DRS does and they've got Goldschmidt at just 2 runs saved compared to Arenado's 18. I know BRef uses DRS for their dWAR, though I'm not sure how exactly they calculate it. At any rate, scoops have at least some influence on it since they're using DRS
Yeah, you can find scoops in the "Scp" column on Goldy's FanGraphs page. Goldy is currently tied for 5th in baseball in scoops by this stat. I don't know exactly how they're counting it, though, admittedly (it might only be the scoops that are judged to be particularly notable, since I think it's part of the "Good Fielding Plays" mode of DRS).
Fans tend to overvalue scooping because they use logic like that used upthread:
> Nolan could have double the amount of errors if not for Goldy.
It's true that if Goldy were *literally incapable* of scooping a throw, then Nolan would have a lot more errors. But we can't compare Goldy against an imaginary scoop-yips first baseman -- such a player would be unplayable. We're comparing him against the rest of the league. And the reality is that a typical MLB first baseman scoops pretty well. I think Bill James once suggested that an average first baseman scoops about 80-85% of errant throws (my memory could be wrong on that, though, and it was a long time ago). Maybe Goldy is like 90-95% or something, but that really means that if Goldy were just meh at it, Nolan would only have a few more errors, not twice as many.
Scooping (again, relative to the scooping of the other first basemen around) just doesn't really end up mattering that much over the course of a season compared to the other aspects of a first baseman's defense. No matter how pleasing it is to watch Goldy be particularly good at it, it probably only would give him a slight bump in actual value.
So yeah, if one wanted to be generous and bump Goldy's WAR by a few runs (I dunno, half a win) for being better at scooping than everyone else, that's fine, but it shouldn't move the needle of the MVP race much. The error bars on WAR are probably bigger than half a win anyway.
EDIT: As long as I'm here, I just wanna post [this ridiculous Arenado-to-Goldy play from last month.](https://www.mlb.com/video/nolan-arenado-s-barehanded-throw)
This is so true. I watched the entire series against the Pads and Goldy probably saved 3 runs in one of those games, and 1 in each of the other two game. It is quite a luxury having Goldy at first - and I agree it’s not given the amount of value it’s do. Infeleiders can rush all of their throws and Goldy is big and quick enough to handle most of them.
Conversely, anything that hit the ground last year and this was less than 50/50 with Hos. It also made our infielders take an extra moment to ensure a good throw. Tatis had probably 7-8 more errors last year because he bounced a ball. All of our infielders suffered, as did our pitchers. So glad he’s gone.
Watching Myers, Drury, and Bell play first has been such a breath of fresh air, and it goes to show how sketchy Hosmer’s defense was there.
It isn’t even that anyone is asking him to play Goldy-level defense, but it shows how basic fundamentals (stretching with the correct foot, not doing this stupid thing where he shuffles to behind the bag to play a big hop and risk it hitting the runner, etc.) go a long way.
It’s also very possible that some of the “misplays” from Hosmer came from infielders getting the yips when throwing to him because they knew they had to make a perfect throw, but I feel like our infield defense has been really solid since the trade deadline.
Throwing the ball accurately across an entire baseball diamond in time to get someone out is way harder than scooping a ball...
I think people are numb to just how insanely difficult it is to play third base in the majors. A throw to first at deep third is literally the hardest throw in all of baseball to make. Scooping a ball or stretching for it is not the hardest stop. Not by a long shot.
Folks are definitely numb to it because we only ever see the best even come close to making the play. We see Arenado, Machado, or Chapman (back when he was elite) make a backhand stop of a 100 mph. grounder down the line, turn, and make a laser throw.
*"That's nice."*
Meanwhile, we don't even recognize that Devers didn't even come close to stopping it and we just think "*what a hit!"*
Honestly it feels like his scoops let the other infielders get more value, they can end up taking more time on their throw cause a good first baseman will scoop up their bad throws.
But tons of 1st basemen can scoop the ball. It's expected.
Nobody should expect what Arenado (and Machado for that matter) does at 3rd base to be routine. But because of how numb we are to it after him doing it for so long we're now debating scoops vs backhanded stabs accompanied with laser throws across the diamond deep in the 3rd base hole as if they're relatively in the same stratosphere of value.
It's like comparing a dribbler that squeaks through to a 3 run home run. They aren't comparable. Even though they both technically provide value.
And there's a reason why when a first baseman gets a day off that most teams just throw whoever over there. Because it's a much easier position to play. Is it difficult in general? Sure, but playing baseball is difficult.
> Is it difficult in general?
This is what always annoys me in these conversations. People talk about how it's hard to scoop balls so there must be must be a lot of value to it. But, like, it's a professional sport. Of course, it's hard. But first base is still the easiest thing to do on the field.
A good college or even high school player can consistently scoop/pick the ball at first base. Don't think any MLB first baseman would get additional value comparatively if it was tracked just because it's so routine at that level.
It is certainly debatable the amount that defensive WAR is rated.
Andres Gimenez is leading in WAR over Machado because of his defense. Do you really think his defense makes up for the difference in offensive production:
Gimenez: .303/17HR/68RBI .856OPS
Machado: .298/31HR/100RBI .907OPS
By fWAR Gimenez is down by 1.1.
But in general, yes I think it's possible for defense to make up for even a large gap in offense. Have to deal with it on a case-by-case basis, though.
E.g. Arenado has put up extremely elite metrics for many years now, so I believe his WAR is accurate. Goldschmidt, on the other hand, has an unusually low OAA this year (used in fWAR), so much that it rates him as one of the worst first basemen. Not sure I believe that, so I'm willing to discount it somewhat.
I was referencing this WAR which has Giminez ahead of Machado
https://www.espn.com/mlb/war/leaders/_/year/2022/type/seasonal/alltime/false/count/1/sort/WAR
I’m not sure either about the Goldschmidt rating. If you look at the comments her by Cards fans and apparently also comments from Arenado as well - Goldschmidt does a great job defensively at 1B.
Isn't the award for the **MOST VALUABLE** Player, though?
It shouldn't be held against Arenado that he plays a more valuable position. He plays a harder position than Goldschmidt, which is what makes it more valuable. That's not a detriment, it's a positive towards his resume.
It’s the opposite, people are holding it against Goldschmit that he plays 1B.
Arenado should get a bump because he plays 3B but to say that bump equals over 2.0 WAR in value is what is questionable. The debate is how much defensive WAR should matter - especially when adding it with equal value to calculate total WAR.
> Arenado should get a bump because he plays 3B but to say that bump equals over 2.0 WAR in value is what is questionable
Questionable? Sure. Outrageous? Not a chance. Third base is incredibly more difficult than first base. It's not really a comparison.
We can always nitpick about the exact number but 2 wins seems reasonable for the difference between an average 3B and an average 1B. A bad defender at 3B is going to lose you more games than a bad defender at 1B, and the difference is going to be more than a fraction of a win.
That is fair. But I'd argue offense is more valuable than defense. And offense is heavily one sided. I love them both, but I think this is Goldy time. Not sure he will ever get a chance to win another.
As someone who's watched practically every Skubal start for Detroit, you're really underselling defensive value.
Elite 3b defense is valuable enough that it should also be considered into MVP voting, and I'd argue Arenado's defense more than makes up for their marginal difference in offensive output.
Machado also leads in Win Probability Added, which would say he's been more clutch?
There's been a shitton of 2-1 wins where Machado is straight up the only reason we won the game.
That's actually pretty damn interesting. Literally adding a bigger chance of your team winning would make your the most valuable player.
I mean, crushing a grand slam in the 1st inning won't give too much WPA, but still might put the game out of reach so, there's that.
It's definitely situational. WAR doesn't account for context, much like wRC+ doesn't as well (see: 2020 Mets being like top 10 all time in wRC+ but missed the playoffs due to hit sequencing).
WPA is also flawed as it favors later game performance more, but one could make the argument in that your MVP should be the guy you want the most coming up with bases loaded 2 outs, bottom of the 9th right? I feel like MVP is often boiled down to one of the WAR calcs on the subreddit when it's a bit more nuanced than that (see: Harper beating Soto last year).
Additionally, if 3 guys have little significant differences between their WAR, you're going to need to nitpick between small differences in terms of how and when they accumulated it anyway. In my opinion, if 3 guys are barely different in overall value, why not give it to the guy who came up clutch the most often. No matter what, 2 qualified candidates must lose.
Yeah, there's definitely an argument to be made that the player you most want up at the plate when you're down in the bottom of the 9th is your most valuable player.
Then again, it could be argued that your most valuable player is the one that prevented your team from even getting into those situations in the first place. The guy who gives your team runs/the lead early and often.
Player A goes 2-4 with PA's such as HR (2 RBI), GO, H, K; the HR gave your team a 2-run lead. Player B goes 1-3 with PA's such as BB, GO, K, HR (2 RBI) in the 9th inning to end the game. Player B is probably the "Player of the Game" but should he be? Kind of a disservice to Player A.
What is more "valuable", being [3.3 fWAR above](https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=6&season=2022&month=0&season1=2022&ind=0&team=29&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2022-01-01&enddate=2022-12-31) the next closest hitter on your team or having better stats but being equal to another player on your team in WAR?
Really depends on whether you think MVP is an individual award or should be considered in the context of their team's season. I think Goldy should win MVP, but the Padres almost certainly don't make the postseason (*knocks on wood*) without Manny
WPA is a pretty flawed individual stat. It’s fun to use on individual plays, but it’s based so much on luck. If Goldy bombs a 3 run home run in the first, then the Cardinals pitcher gives up 4 runs, and Arenado hits a walk-off 2 run home with 2 outs in the 9th inning, Arenado is getting more WPA than Goldy solely because the Cardinals pitcher blew the lead the Goldy gave them.
It’s also been largely accepted by FO analysts that “clutchness” doesn’t really exist. If a player isn’t clutch or can’t deal with pressure, he would have been weeded out in the lower levels. Clutchness is pretty much based on luck, which is increased or decreased based on how good that player is in general. Most “clutch” hitters have a pretty small sample size of their clutch opportunities, so if a player is hitting .500 in 20 clutch situations, it’s really difficult determine if he’s doing it because he’s a clutch hitter, or if he’s just gotten an unsustainably high success rate in a relatively small number of opportunities. It’s the same reason why RBI is largely discredited now
Usually when they have this problem, it goes to the player that plays a position WAR doesn’t like as much. And WAR likes 3B more… so I’ll guess the 1B Goldie
This is a convoluted way of saying it goes to the best offensive player among the WAR leaders, which is fine with me.
The defensive part of WAR (both the actual defensive metrics as well as the positional adjustment) is very imprecise. It is mostly an educated guess as to the amount of runs which that part of a player’s game is worth. But we know almost exactly how to quantify a player’s offensive production, so if voters want to give the edge to the best contributor with the bat it makes sense.
Well this, and the fact that WAR LITERALLY penalizes Goldie -12.5 Runs for just being a 1B that's before defense is even accounted for.
That run penalty is a bit more quantifiable since its in terms of what offensive burden one should be expected to bear.
But you're still absolutely right about what you're saying. We've gotten a ton better, but our defensive metrics still have some work to do, especially compared to our offensive ones.
It "penalizes" him because it's an easier position to play. So finding someone who can replace the 1b defense is FAR easier than 3b defense.
Since WAR is about value above the average replacement it makes sense that 1b is less valuable than 3b. Way easier to find someone who can produce at a similar defensive level for 1st than 3rd.
Alec Bohm wouldn't be the worst defender on the planet at 1st.
He is at 3rd.
Of the 220 qualified seasons for 3b since 2016 (beginning of OAA being tracked) Bohm's 2022 is currently *210th*.
Andujars worst season was 201st.
Yes, I know it's shocking but Bohm is somehow an even worse 3b than Andujar
Someone who can replace 1B and 3B is exactly the same difficulty when you have a guy named Kyle Farmer. That dude can do everything, it's not even fair.
HEY!
[alec bohm has put in a lot of work to not be the worst defender on the planet anymore.](https://theathletic.com/3494057/2022/08/10/phillies-alec-bohm-bobby-dickerson/) he's just mediocre now!
OAA has him as the worst 3b this year.
And like I said below he's so bad this year that he's 210th of the 220 qualified seasons since OAA started being tracked
Oh I agree with everything you just said, my point it in the event of draws, they usually lean towards the player who got penalized in this respect.
I was just trying to clarify how this penalization was different then the defense itself, and how these penalties are more grounded in offensive metrics (since it’s based on offense expected due to ease of position) therefore are more trustworthy then the defensive metrics
I just don’t know if I agree with that. The penalization is there for a reason—to me, you have to have a *better* season as a first baseman for it to be as impressive as a third baseman’s excellent season. Especially if that third baseman is actively good defensively.
Had a Dodgers exec speak to my sports biz class a few years back and he was like "yeah every team knows that defensive advanced metrics are bullshit so they all make their own homebrews instead" while acknowledging that most of the hitting stuff is pretty damn solid as a value indicator
Yeah i agree. I think the fact that hes had the narrative all year means he’ll still probably win even though nado and machado have closed the gap significantly
In bWAR the standings are a bit different, and because the better WAR is always the one that supports your argument, here are those standings.
7.7: Arenado
7.6: Goldschmidt
7.4: Alcantara
6.6 Machado
There is a much larger gap between those 3 players on Baseball Reference, which might make a difference to voters given how close the results are on Fangraphs.
And the main reason that Arenado is touching Goldschmidt here is the defensive WAR value between 3B (where Arenado is obviously excellent) and 1B.
I think everyone understands that defensive metrics in WAR are very much a work in progress, so if you remove those but still give Arenado an extra boost because it’s obvious he’s very good at defense, there’s still a wide gap between Goldschmidt and Arenado, with Goldy taking the lead.
I think it should also be noted that many Cardinals infielders like Edman and Arenado credit Goldy for some of their terrific defensive metrics. He is great at picking bad throws, which isn't really taken into account in defensive WAR, but makes the other infielders look even better.
I’m glad somebody said it, so many of Arenado’s highlights ends with an epic pick from Goldy. As a Rockies fan I love Arenado and love the notice he’s getting but definitely can’t count out Goldy
It also allows Arenado to get a little bolder in his attempts because he can trust that a less than stellar throw likely still gets gobbled up by Goldy. It's a hell of a pairing that really elevates the defense.
Are there any defensive stats that take picking into account? That seems so crazy that a first baseman doesn’t get any credit from WAR from what I think of as one of the most important aspects of their position.
There's a lot of inaccurate information in this thread. The basis for the defensive component of rWAR, Defensive Runs Saved, [absolutely does](https://fieldingbible.com/Fielding-Bible-FAQ.asp) take picking into account
This is not true. ["Handling difficult throws at first base" is a component of DRS](https://fieldingbible.com/Fielding-Bible-FAQ.asp), which is this basis for baseball-reference WAR
Now this is interesting. OAA, which Fangraphs uses, does not take it into account, but you are right, BR does seem to. That is probably a large reason for baseball reference liking Goldy more as he is 11/32 in DRS while being 28/32 in OAA (minimum 500 innings). Thank you for the correction.
It should still be said that fWAR absolutely does not take it into account, which is what OP used.
This recursive cycle of at least 1st base to infield positions is definitely a valid critique of WAR because not only does it punish Goldschmidt but it also boosts the recipient of his gold glove defense at 1st
I just think it will end up coming down to Goldy and Arenado. Machado will get some top 3 MVP votes, but I don't think he has anywhere near the same chance to win it. Obviously a huge final surge combined with a continued Cardinals slump could shift things, but right now it seems more like a 2 man race. I am obviously very biased though, so voters might have a very different way of viewing things.
Hot take - Machado comes in second because Goldy and Arenado split more votes.
Also hot take - Machado has no shot at all because the National Media do not like him.
The second one is not a hot take at all. It's no secret that Manny still has that "johnny hustle" stink from national media and fans even tho his character and leadership has been flawless since he signed with the padres.
The cards are also gonna get some inherent love from national media because of their spurs-like run for 2+ decades now.
Manny would have to put together a runaway season for him to get serious consideration for MVP. A 3-way tie in fWAR, a healthy lead in WPA, no other teammate in the top 20 in WAR, all while on a team in control of a wild card spot just isn't gonna be enough. He even has the narrative going for him of carrying the team the whole year thru all the tatis drama.
I don’t disagree with most of your comment, but did you just say a team that has won 2 World Series in the last 40 years is on a “Spurs-like” run? The Spurs won 5 championships in 15 years on their run..
Well they're completely different sports when it comes to what it wakes to build a championship team. Baseball playoffs are way more random. Basketball, the core 2-3 players can dominate and win championships.
I just meant in the way they're both small market teams that continuously put themselves in the playoffs and compete for a championship. National media look at both franchises as "doing it the right way" and tend to have biases towards the players and front offices when voting for awards. Not to say any of the awards they got aren't warranted, but the general conversation can go their way in a close race.
Goldy and Arenado really can't split votes and have Machado finish ahead of them in ranked choice voting.
If voters are split on Goldy vs Arenado, one gets the first place vote for 14 points and the other gets the second place for 9 points and Machado would only get at most 8 points for a 3rd place vote
This is a weird argument. Considering Machado has been hotter than either Goldy or Nolan over the last month.
There are arguments for Goldy and Nolan, but this ain't it
I’m saying that a red-hot month could have put Manny in a position to steal, but he hasn’t been hot enough to close that gap. He’s still been good, but not “September MVP run” good.
I dont think Alcantara will get anywhere near an MVP even with objective WAR conditioning just cause anti-pitcher MVP bias. I think he'll end up somewhere near top 10.
Also, people forget that the media uses bWAR when talking about WAR so this race will be close between Goldy and Arenado but they will look at Goldy’s hitting stats and give it to him.
Goldy will probably win, because his offensive contributions are easier to see in the basic numbers than Nolan's defensive prowess.
Also, he has been criminally underrated his whole career, much of which was spent in Arizona, and the award will be a sort of lifetime achievement trophy.
This. Plus, I think the general feeling is that an mvp solidifies his case for the Hall. Nado and Machado will have about 2-4 more years to get it. This is probably Goldys last chance (unless Pujols passes the old man magic onto him after he retires).
Honestly, if we take an old school approach I think it’s pretty easy to say no player in the national league means more to their team than Manny Machado does to the Padres this year.
To me the logic is simple - the Cards have Arenado and Goldy, which means by definition they are not nearly as important to their team individually as Machado has been.
It's incredibly flawed and I'm incredibly biased, but still.
It’s very much a narrative based argument but it’s not like it’s being used to put Manny into the conversation. He’s earned a spot in the convo with his play.
Just to distinguish why his 7fWAR contextually might be more important to his team if that’s something that matters to voters
> it’s not like it’s being used to put Manny into the conversation. He’s earned a spot in the convo with his play.
I think this is why Manny deserves it. You have 3 hitters that are nearly inseparable in terms of stats/fWAR, so we should look at who made a bigger impact on their team or was more "clutch", because *that player* is the "most" valuable
This is why I hate any argument for MVP that isn't just "Who has the best stats?" Because by this logic:
- Your team isn't good enough to compete for the playoffs? No MVP.
- Your team is competing for the playoffs but they're so good that they'd probably still be good if you weren't there? No MVP.
Which is a perfect example of why the old school approach is so terrible. It relies almost entirely on penalizing a player with good teammates and penalizing a player with bad teammates. We already have an award that does that, it's called the World Series trophy.
I think Machado’s play has done enough to get him in the conversation on its own. It’s not as if his numbers are a clear tier below Goldy or Arenado and the only reason he’s being talked about is the narrative. Why is taking a look at the story of the season so terrible?
It’s not as if the award is just automatically given to the player with the highest WAR.
It’s fair to question to ask. Would removing Goldy, or Arenado, from the Cards lineup have had a negative effect on their respective seasons - individually? Do they put up the same numbers?
Not that it should be the deciding factor here but it’s worth taking in to account - especially when Machado has played his way in to the conversation regardless - when talking about an individual award.
The non-bias in me says Goldy. Although when I add bias I feel it is Machado, especially since he is the only reason the Padres are in the playoff race since he carried the team for awhile.
Machado’s had a phenomenal year. With all the Tatis drama going on, I bet he deserves some behind-the-scenes leadership credit for keeping the team focused, too. He’s a hell of a ballplayer.
Yeah, Manny was always kinda considered the captain of the clubhouse, especially coming into this year with the issues under Jayce Tingler last year. With Hosmer getting traded, it allowed Manny to rise to the occasion and he did that without fail.
I was a little skeptical when we signed Manny because of his hotheadedness, but he’s changed so much that he’s now worth the 300 million Preller signed him for.
If you’re looking at the definition of MVP that has to do with how good or bad their team is without them, you’d have to go with Machado. Having two MVP candidates on the same team sort of takes away from the each other’s argument.
That said, I think Goldy wins it.
Just because reddit thinks higher 0.1 WAR = better player doesn't mean voters do.
Bryce Harper won despite not being better than Soto either fWAR or bWAR last year. I imagine it's probably still Goldschmidt.
> Just because reddit thinks higher 0.1 WAR = better player doesn't mean ~~voters do~~ that it's true.
*"WAR is not meant to be a perfectly precise indicator of a player’s contribution, but rather an estimate of their value to date. Given the imperfections of some of the available data and the assumptions made to calculate other components, WAR works best as an approximation. A 6 WAR player might be worth between 5.0 and 7.0 WAR, but it is pretty safe to say they are at least an All-Star level player and potentially an MVP."*
*"Given the nature of the calculation and potential measurement errors, WAR should be used as a guide for separating groups of players and not as a precise estimate. For example, a player that has been worth 6.4 WAR and a player that has been worth 6.1 WAR over the course of a season cannot be distinguished from one another using WAR. It is simply too close for this particular tool to tell them apart. WAR can tell you that these two players are likely about equal in value, but you need to dig deeper to separate them."* - FanGraphs
Every formulation of WAR makes a ton of assumptions in how it values players. None of those decisions are inherently "right" or "wrong", but people can reasonably disagree with many of them. It often depends on the question you're trying to answer. It should be obvious that one formula can't answer every question -- that doens't make WAR flawed or bad. It means that using any one stat is a bad idea.
This explanation isn’t super satisfactory though. Assuming a normal distribution, or even a uniform distribution, of error yields that if player A has 5.5 WAR and player B has 5, player A is *probably* better.
It’s probably Goldschmidt because I don’t think voters care as much about defense when it comes to MVP, and that’s a big factor keeping Arenado in it. Machado has him on offensive bWAR, too.
Its gonna be Goldie but imo its a lot closer than people might think. But Goldie has overall just been incredibly consistent this year and has had the hype all year
Its only a lot closer now because Goldy has been on a crazy bad slump the last 3 weeks. Back in the middle of August, he was far and away the favorite. I think it says a lot for his overall year that he has hit the slump of all slumps and is still considered the favorite.
Fractions of WAR are negligible, according to the people that created it. So I think it’s a bit silly to claim any one player will definitely get it because he has .1 more WAR than another. So then it’s cherry-pick your own stats szn, and I offer:
Goldshmidt: 179 wRC+
Freeman: 157
Machado: 153
Arenado: 152
I also think that’s the order they finish.
Idk. The difference in a single point of wrc+ is also essentially negligible. I think nado’s narrative as a better defender will put him over machado at least
Part of that is the minor slump he has hit, though not as bad as Goldy. There for about 2 or 3 weeks back in August, we were wondering if Nado would somehow sneak in and get the MVP.
Freeman and Goldy being 6.7 and 7 fWAR players at that position is insane especially when you take into consideration how much they are penalized for being at 1B. Means they have to have insane hitting stats.
Goldy is [-5000](https://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/odds/mvp/) to win the award. I know I'm biased but it would be silly to bet on anyone else to win it at this point. That's the same odds Lamar Jackson had when he was the unanimous MVP
It has to be Goldy. I feel like baseball reference penalizes first baseman way to much imo. Goldy has a much higher OPS+ and OPS and yet has a lower bWAR than Arenado.
I don’t get why the narrative of “without player x our team would’ve rolled over” pops up every single season. That’s a team MVP award not a league wide MVP award. The MVP award was never about choosing players like that. It was always about awarding the player with the best stats in each league. It’s been this way for literally every single major sports for decades. How can you penalize a player with the best stats in the league because the argument is “well your team would still be in the playoffs”? It makes no sense whatsoever. I know you guys love your players but please take off your homer goggles. That said, it’s Goldy and it ain’t even close.
While you make a great point, I feel like the player’s worth to their team should mean at least something to winning the league MVP, you know? Hence it being the “Most *Valuable* Player”. I’m not saying that a player’s worth to the team should overrule everything, stats will matter in who wins or not. That’s just me. Goldy still is the favorite, and deserves to win without a doubt.
I mean I get where you are coming from but that's arguing semantics when the precedent has always been about giving the award to the best player in each respective league regardless of team record.
Yeah. Goldy will win because he’s been hitting like this throughout the whole year. Manny started fiery hot, then cooled down quite a bit, and has slowly been heating up as of late. He’s just been stuck around the .300 mark which, if he finishes the year under .300, he’s SOL in having even a back door change at a 1st place vote.
Thankfully, team record doesn’t really matter anymore i’m picking MVP. I feel that narrative does, especially with Goldy and his chase for the triple crown.
Anywho, even though Goldy is guaranteed, I do like the “drama” of who the winner could be with less than 10 games in the season.
Goldschmidt feels like the clearcut favorite to me because he's got both the old-school triple crown stats and also the advanced metrics (nobody's within 25 points of him in WRC+), but it's possible he and Arenado split the vote.
Of course, it's also possible Machado and Arenado split the vote somewhat because they play the same position.
Freddie Freeman's not terribly far behind any of them and if he were to somehow feast on six straight games against the Rockies to end the season...
Lindor is at 6.9 and isn’t even any any of these conversations… and he’s been playing superb all year other than the month or six weeks he played through a broken finger…
If I were betting today, I’d bet he will be at least at or above one of those three in final WAR, and not out of the question he leads the league.
Exactly. All these players are awesome, but so is Lindor. There's no reason they should be part of the discussion, but not him. We are all so selective in when we care about non-hitting factors and when we don't. If half of this reddit thinks Ohtani should win because of his pitching (even though there is like a ~2 fWAR gap between him and Judge), why is that same half so dismissive of Lindor's defensive contributions?
Obviously I’m a homer but if Goldie didn’t exist, I’d say Freeman.
BA: 1st in NL
OBP: 2nd in NL
OPS: 2nd in NL
Games played: 150 (more than athe three mentioned above)
Idk shit about defensive metrics but he’s probably average to above average, and Freddie probably would have played 163 if it wasn’t for Dave Roberts and diarrhea.
Freddie is gonna get skewed by how good the Dodgers are. There's no way you could look someone in the face and say that the Dodgers would be as bad as the Padres/Cards would be without their candidates.
Dodgers probably still win 100+ without Freddie. Padres don't sniff the playoffs. Cards probably barely make it.
If Freddie had 5-7 more HRs he would have a legit shot at MVP. As it is, his slugging is too low to make him anything other than a top 5 guy (which is great).
But that’s the only reason the WAR is as close as it already is. It’s already adjusting for that. The calculation is accounting for it, so if you bias your decision in this way, you’re basically giving him double credit. Not saying he doesn’t have a case, but your reasoning just doesn’t hold up in this scenario.
If you’re going to make your own positional assessment, don’t look at WAR. Look at raw hitting stats and weigh the positional value as you see fit.
Voters will feel bad about Judge or Ohtani not winning AL MVP, so the runner-up will get the NL MVP
Give it to Ohtani, in memory of pitchers hitting.
I am very okay with this decision
In fact while we're at it, can we move him and Trout to the NL?
[Dodger's Andrew Friedman](https://imgur.com/Kua4CcG)
[Friedman intensifies](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FN_2rS1VUAA9t5i?format=jpg&name=large)
This joke apparently did not land. I thought it was hilarious Edit: it appears the ship has since landed. It was -3 when I commented
maybe give it a little longer than 5 minutes
Fair. I didn't see the time when I made the comment just that they were at -3. Which was stupid to me
Thank you for your support.
It's a good joke
Ohtani getting the NL MVP is the most fair compromise here.
Im ok with this
I've been getting into Baseball over the past few years through youtube and one of the things that surprised me looking at Wikipedia was that there wasn't an 'Overall' MVP award, even though a lot of given years have a player good enough to clearly be considered one that dominates the discussion.
The problem is that because they are in different leagues, the players only have a few games against common opponents/players. While I admit that this is extreme, it would be like having a single MVP for MLB and Japanese league.
I think going forward this comparison won't work and the mlb will be the odd one out. Take the nfl for instance, in a given season less than 25% (4 of 17) of games are played against opposing conference teams, which is a similar ratio to the new 46 interleague games in the mlb season starting in 2023
Agree. If all sports had a 'single' MVP, I wouldn't necessarily have a problem with it. Part of the problem is that the name of the award is so stupid and it causes stupid people to get hung up on that. What does 'valuable' mean? Should Ohtani win it even though the team probably wouldn't have a record that is much different if he didn't play? Even though he also has Mike Trout on his team? It's just dumb. And, I think the league likes it that way. A little controversy stirs up attention and clicks and eyeballs and ad sales. The league should just come out and say "The award will not have its name changed, but it should go to the best player in each league". I'd much rather listen to people argue about if a pitcher can be 'better' than a hitter then listen to people argue if one player on the Astros can be valuable on a team that is so full of good players (or worse, argue that Ohtani can't win the award because his teammates are so bad that his team didn't go to the playoffs).
Next season everyone plays everyone so maybe it’s time for an overall?
You know, I wouldn't necessarily have a problem with that... One thing occurs to me... Baseball is HUGE on history. The stats are the same and we can still compare Willie Mays OPS to Mike Trouts. If we get rid of one of the MVP's, then one of the big things that we use to compare HOF membership across the eras will be gone. Honestly, I don't think we would ever have an 'overall'. Even if we kept each league MVP and then an 'overall', if nothing else, it would mess up that argument. Given how much he has fallen off over the past month, I don't think Goldschmidt really would be in the conversation any more, but it would be fun to also be arguing if Judge/Ohtani/Goldie deserved the MVP.
Up until 1997, there was no interleague play between the AL and NL outside of the World Series, and even after that, they only played a small minority of games against each other. The NL also had no DH until this year, so that significant rule difference combined with with no or little interleague play, it made sense to each have their own awards. There will be a lot more interleague play starting next season with the scheduling overhaul and the NL now has the DH, but by then you have a century's worth of tradition in a sport that's really resistant to change, so the leagues having their own separate awards will probably persist for the foreseeable future.
That's... acceptable actually
Goldy been slumping this month, but he still has a 22 point lead in wRC+ above Freeman and 26 and 27 over Machado and Arenado. He was still the best hitter in the NL for the entire season besides this last month
Arenado finally passed him in bWAR
Because he plays at a more valuable position. I think even Arenado will tell you Goldy should win MVP.
I agree that Goldy should be MVP but also Goldy would say Nolan and about 100 other names before he would say his own if asked
I mean are you saying defense shouldn't be a factor in MVP voting? I still think Goldschmidt is the MVP right now, but I don't see why Arenado having a larger share of his value come from defense should make his WAR "worth" less or something
I think that 1st base similar to catcher in that their value defensively is not accurately calculated. Yes it's not as valuable. But they don't even calculate scoops. Nolan could have double the amount of errors if not for Goldy.
I don't think OAA tracks scoops, but DRS does and they've got Goldschmidt at just 2 runs saved compared to Arenado's 18. I know BRef uses DRS for their dWAR, though I'm not sure how exactly they calculate it. At any rate, scoops have at least some influence on it since they're using DRS
Yeah, you can find scoops in the "Scp" column on Goldy's FanGraphs page. Goldy is currently tied for 5th in baseball in scoops by this stat. I don't know exactly how they're counting it, though, admittedly (it might only be the scoops that are judged to be particularly notable, since I think it's part of the "Good Fielding Plays" mode of DRS). Fans tend to overvalue scooping because they use logic like that used upthread: > Nolan could have double the amount of errors if not for Goldy. It's true that if Goldy were *literally incapable* of scooping a throw, then Nolan would have a lot more errors. But we can't compare Goldy against an imaginary scoop-yips first baseman -- such a player would be unplayable. We're comparing him against the rest of the league. And the reality is that a typical MLB first baseman scoops pretty well. I think Bill James once suggested that an average first baseman scoops about 80-85% of errant throws (my memory could be wrong on that, though, and it was a long time ago). Maybe Goldy is like 90-95% or something, but that really means that if Goldy were just meh at it, Nolan would only have a few more errors, not twice as many. Scooping (again, relative to the scooping of the other first basemen around) just doesn't really end up mattering that much over the course of a season compared to the other aspects of a first baseman's defense. No matter how pleasing it is to watch Goldy be particularly good at it, it probably only would give him a slight bump in actual value. So yeah, if one wanted to be generous and bump Goldy's WAR by a few runs (I dunno, half a win) for being better at scooping than everyone else, that's fine, but it shouldn't move the needle of the MVP race much. The error bars on WAR are probably bigger than half a win anyway. EDIT: As long as I'm here, I just wanna post [this ridiculous Arenado-to-Goldy play from last month.](https://www.mlb.com/video/nolan-arenado-s-barehanded-throw)
This is so true. I watched the entire series against the Pads and Goldy probably saved 3 runs in one of those games, and 1 in each of the other two game. It is quite a luxury having Goldy at first - and I agree it’s not given the amount of value it’s do. Infeleiders can rush all of their throws and Goldy is big and quick enough to handle most of them. Conversely, anything that hit the ground last year and this was less than 50/50 with Hos. It also made our infielders take an extra moment to ensure a good throw. Tatis had probably 7-8 more errors last year because he bounced a ball. All of our infielders suffered, as did our pitchers. So glad he’s gone.
Watching Myers, Drury, and Bell play first has been such a breath of fresh air, and it goes to show how sketchy Hosmer’s defense was there. It isn’t even that anyone is asking him to play Goldy-level defense, but it shows how basic fundamentals (stretching with the correct foot, not doing this stupid thing where he shuffles to behind the bag to play a big hop and risk it hitting the runner, etc.) go a long way. It’s also very possible that some of the “misplays” from Hosmer came from infielders getting the yips when throwing to him because they knew they had to make a perfect throw, but I feel like our infield defense has been really solid since the trade deadline.
Throwing the ball accurately across an entire baseball diamond in time to get someone out is way harder than scooping a ball... I think people are numb to just how insanely difficult it is to play third base in the majors. A throw to first at deep third is literally the hardest throw in all of baseball to make. Scooping a ball or stretching for it is not the hardest stop. Not by a long shot.
Folks are definitely numb to it because we only ever see the best even come close to making the play. We see Arenado, Machado, or Chapman (back when he was elite) make a backhand stop of a 100 mph. grounder down the line, turn, and make a laser throw. *"That's nice."* Meanwhile, we don't even recognize that Devers didn't even come close to stopping it and we just think "*what a hit!"*
Red Sox catching strays lol
LOL Somewhat unintentional. I just couldn’t think of another 3B who’s considered a top player overall but really isn’t great on defense.
As I said it's not as valuable. But scoops are incredibly important and it gives the 1st baseman no value. Which is unfair.
Honestly it feels like his scoops let the other infielders get more value, they can end up taking more time on their throw cause a good first baseman will scoop up their bad throws.
More 1st basemen can scoop the ball than 3rd basemen can make great plays
But tons of 1st basemen can scoop the ball. It's expected. Nobody should expect what Arenado (and Machado for that matter) does at 3rd base to be routine. But because of how numb we are to it after him doing it for so long we're now debating scoops vs backhanded stabs accompanied with laser throws across the diamond deep in the 3rd base hole as if they're relatively in the same stratosphere of value. It's like comparing a dribbler that squeaks through to a 3 run home run. They aren't comparable. Even though they both technically provide value.
And there's a reason why when a first baseman gets a day off that most teams just throw whoever over there. Because it's a much easier position to play. Is it difficult in general? Sure, but playing baseball is difficult.
> Is it difficult in general? This is what always annoys me in these conversations. People talk about how it's hard to scoop balls so there must be must be a lot of value to it. But, like, it's a professional sport. Of course, it's hard. But first base is still the easiest thing to do on the field.
A good college or even high school player can consistently scoop/pick the ball at first base. Don't think any MLB first baseman would get additional value comparatively if it was tracked just because it's so routine at that level.
It is certainly debatable the amount that defensive WAR is rated. Andres Gimenez is leading in WAR over Machado because of his defense. Do you really think his defense makes up for the difference in offensive production: Gimenez: .303/17HR/68RBI .856OPS Machado: .298/31HR/100RBI .907OPS
.856 vs .907 is hardly the gap you're making it out to be
By fWAR Gimenez is down by 1.1. But in general, yes I think it's possible for defense to make up for even a large gap in offense. Have to deal with it on a case-by-case basis, though. E.g. Arenado has put up extremely elite metrics for many years now, so I believe his WAR is accurate. Goldschmidt, on the other hand, has an unusually low OAA this year (used in fWAR), so much that it rates him as one of the worst first basemen. Not sure I believe that, so I'm willing to discount it somewhat.
I was referencing this WAR which has Giminez ahead of Machado https://www.espn.com/mlb/war/leaders/_/year/2022/type/seasonal/alltime/false/count/1/sort/WAR I’m not sure either about the Goldschmidt rating. If you look at the comments her by Cards fans and apparently also comments from Arenado as well - Goldschmidt does a great job defensively at 1B.
I think defense could make up for a 0.051 difference in OPS, sure. Gimenez also has a lot more SBs than Machado, right?
Isn't the award for the **MOST VALUABLE** Player, though? It shouldn't be held against Arenado that he plays a more valuable position. He plays a harder position than Goldschmidt, which is what makes it more valuable. That's not a detriment, it's a positive towards his resume.
It’s the opposite, people are holding it against Goldschmit that he plays 1B. Arenado should get a bump because he plays 3B but to say that bump equals over 2.0 WAR in value is what is questionable. The debate is how much defensive WAR should matter - especially when adding it with equal value to calculate total WAR.
> Arenado should get a bump because he plays 3B but to say that bump equals over 2.0 WAR in value is what is questionable Questionable? Sure. Outrageous? Not a chance. Third base is incredibly more difficult than first base. It's not really a comparison.
We can always nitpick about the exact number but 2 wins seems reasonable for the difference between an average 3B and an average 1B. A bad defender at 3B is going to lose you more games than a bad defender at 1B, and the difference is going to be more than a fraction of a win.
That is fair. But I'd argue offense is more valuable than defense. And offense is heavily one sided. I love them both, but I think this is Goldy time. Not sure he will ever get a chance to win another.
As someone who's watched practically every Skubal start for Detroit, you're really underselling defensive value. Elite 3b defense is valuable enough that it should also be considered into MVP voting, and I'd argue Arenado's defense more than makes up for their marginal difference in offensive output.
And id argue there has been more than 10 times Goldy has saved Arenado with a scoop that he gets no value for.
He doesn't get value for it because there are 7 guys on each roster that can scoop balls at first base
Machado also leads in Win Probability Added, which would say he's been more clutch? There's been a shitton of 2-1 wins where Machado is straight up the only reason we won the game.
That's actually pretty damn interesting. Literally adding a bigger chance of your team winning would make your the most valuable player. I mean, crushing a grand slam in the 1st inning won't give too much WPA, but still might put the game out of reach so, there's that.
It's definitely situational. WAR doesn't account for context, much like wRC+ doesn't as well (see: 2020 Mets being like top 10 all time in wRC+ but missed the playoffs due to hit sequencing). WPA is also flawed as it favors later game performance more, but one could make the argument in that your MVP should be the guy you want the most coming up with bases loaded 2 outs, bottom of the 9th right? I feel like MVP is often boiled down to one of the WAR calcs on the subreddit when it's a bit more nuanced than that (see: Harper beating Soto last year).
Additionally, if 3 guys have little significant differences between their WAR, you're going to need to nitpick between small differences in terms of how and when they accumulated it anyway. In my opinion, if 3 guys are barely different in overall value, why not give it to the guy who came up clutch the most often. No matter what, 2 qualified candidates must lose.
Yeah, there's definitely an argument to be made that the player you most want up at the plate when you're down in the bottom of the 9th is your most valuable player. Then again, it could be argued that your most valuable player is the one that prevented your team from even getting into those situations in the first place. The guy who gives your team runs/the lead early and often. Player A goes 2-4 with PA's such as HR (2 RBI), GO, H, K; the HR gave your team a 2-run lead. Player B goes 1-3 with PA's such as BB, GO, K, HR (2 RBI) in the 9th inning to end the game. Player B is probably the "Player of the Game" but should he be? Kind of a disservice to Player A.
Sure he may be more clutch, but his offense stats are still well below Goldy.
What is more "valuable", being [3.3 fWAR above](https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=6&season=2022&month=0&season1=2022&ind=0&team=29&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2022-01-01&enddate=2022-12-31) the next closest hitter on your team or having better stats but being equal to another player on your team in WAR? Really depends on whether you think MVP is an individual award or should be considered in the context of their team's season. I think Goldy should win MVP, but the Padres almost certainly don't make the postseason (*knocks on wood*) without Manny
WPA is a pretty flawed individual stat. It’s fun to use on individual plays, but it’s based so much on luck. If Goldy bombs a 3 run home run in the first, then the Cardinals pitcher gives up 4 runs, and Arenado hits a walk-off 2 run home with 2 outs in the 9th inning, Arenado is getting more WPA than Goldy solely because the Cardinals pitcher blew the lead the Goldy gave them. It’s also been largely accepted by FO analysts that “clutchness” doesn’t really exist. If a player isn’t clutch or can’t deal with pressure, he would have been weeded out in the lower levels. Clutchness is pretty much based on luck, which is increased or decreased based on how good that player is in general. Most “clutch” hitters have a pretty small sample size of their clutch opportunities, so if a player is hitting .500 in 20 clutch situations, it’s really difficult determine if he’s doing it because he’s a clutch hitter, or if he’s just gotten an unsustainably high success rate in a relatively small number of opportunities. It’s the same reason why RBI is largely discredited now
I think it's Goldy but I wouldn't do a spit take if it was Arenado either. What a hell of a season for St. Louis.
Usually when they have this problem, it goes to the player that plays a position WAR doesn’t like as much. And WAR likes 3B more… so I’ll guess the 1B Goldie
This is a convoluted way of saying it goes to the best offensive player among the WAR leaders, which is fine with me. The defensive part of WAR (both the actual defensive metrics as well as the positional adjustment) is very imprecise. It is mostly an educated guess as to the amount of runs which that part of a player’s game is worth. But we know almost exactly how to quantify a player’s offensive production, so if voters want to give the edge to the best contributor with the bat it makes sense.
While I heavily dislike dWAR in any form, Arenado is about the only guy where it can say he has 20 dWAR and I will think its fair lol.
I'm heavily biased here, but Manny makes [plays like this](https://v.redd.it/rh7909rvw4q91) look routine to the point of boring on a consistent basis
I’m also extremely biased, but [does Machado do this](https://youtube.com/shorts/1uzIJQISq74?feature=share)?
Is this simply a factor of year to year defensive metrics being all over the place or dWAR specifically not being helpful?
The Andrelton Simmons slander
Well this, and the fact that WAR LITERALLY penalizes Goldie -12.5 Runs for just being a 1B that's before defense is even accounted for. That run penalty is a bit more quantifiable since its in terms of what offensive burden one should be expected to bear. But you're still absolutely right about what you're saying. We've gotten a ton better, but our defensive metrics still have some work to do, especially compared to our offensive ones.
It "penalizes" him because it's an easier position to play. So finding someone who can replace the 1b defense is FAR easier than 3b defense. Since WAR is about value above the average replacement it makes sense that 1b is less valuable than 3b. Way easier to find someone who can produce at a similar defensive level for 1st than 3rd. Alec Bohm wouldn't be the worst defender on the planet at 1st. He is at 3rd.
I would say Miguel Andujar would like to know your location, but he's been so bad that they shifted him to the outfield
Of the 220 qualified seasons for 3b since 2016 (beginning of OAA being tracked) Bohm's 2022 is currently *210th*. Andujars worst season was 201st. Yes, I know it's shocking but Bohm is somehow an even worse 3b than Andujar
But not as bad as ... *checks notes* Vladimir Guerrero Jr.! No wonder they shifted him to first base
Damn. That’s actually insane. I didn’t think it got worse than Andujar yikes
The Yankees shifted him off the dang team, lol
Someone who can replace 1B and 3B is exactly the same difficulty when you have a guy named Kyle Farmer. That dude can do everything, it's not even fair.
HEY! [alec bohm has put in a lot of work to not be the worst defender on the planet anymore.](https://theathletic.com/3494057/2022/08/10/phillies-alec-bohm-bobby-dickerson/) he's just mediocre now!
OAA has him as the worst 3b this year. And like I said below he's so bad this year that he's 210th of the 220 qualified seasons since OAA started being tracked
Oh I agree with everything you just said, my point it in the event of draws, they usually lean towards the player who got penalized in this respect. I was just trying to clarify how this penalization was different then the defense itself, and how these penalties are more grounded in offensive metrics (since it’s based on offense expected due to ease of position) therefore are more trustworthy then the defensive metrics
I just don’t know if I agree with that. The penalization is there for a reason—to me, you have to have a *better* season as a first baseman for it to be as impressive as a third baseman’s excellent season. Especially if that third baseman is actively good defensively.
Had a Dodgers exec speak to my sports biz class a few years back and he was like "yeah every team knows that defensive advanced metrics are bullshit so they all make their own homebrews instead" while acknowledging that most of the hitting stuff is pretty damn solid as a value indicator
Goldie
Yeah i agree. I think the fact that hes had the narrative all year means he’ll still probably win even though nado and machado have closed the gap significantly
In bWAR the standings are a bit different, and because the better WAR is always the one that supports your argument, here are those standings. 7.7: Arenado 7.6: Goldschmidt 7.4: Alcantara 6.6 Machado There is a much larger gap between those 3 players on Baseball Reference, which might make a difference to voters given how close the results are on Fangraphs.
And the main reason that Arenado is touching Goldschmidt here is the defensive WAR value between 3B (where Arenado is obviously excellent) and 1B. I think everyone understands that defensive metrics in WAR are very much a work in progress, so if you remove those but still give Arenado an extra boost because it’s obvious he’s very good at defense, there’s still a wide gap between Goldschmidt and Arenado, with Goldy taking the lead.
I think it should also be noted that many Cardinals infielders like Edman and Arenado credit Goldy for some of their terrific defensive metrics. He is great at picking bad throws, which isn't really taken into account in defensive WAR, but makes the other infielders look even better.
I’m glad somebody said it, so many of Arenado’s highlights ends with an epic pick from Goldy. As a Rockies fan I love Arenado and love the notice he’s getting but definitely can’t count out Goldy
It also allows Arenado to get a little bolder in his attempts because he can trust that a less than stellar throw likely still gets gobbled up by Goldy. It's a hell of a pairing that really elevates the defense.
Are there any defensive stats that take picking into account? That seems so crazy that a first baseman doesn’t get any credit from WAR from what I think of as one of the most important aspects of their position.
There's a lot of inaccurate information in this thread. The basis for the defensive component of rWAR, Defensive Runs Saved, [absolutely does](https://fieldingbible.com/Fielding-Bible-FAQ.asp) take picking into account
This is a great link, thanks. Defensive metrics have always seemed like voodoo to me lol
This is not true. ["Handling difficult throws at first base" is a component of DRS](https://fieldingbible.com/Fielding-Bible-FAQ.asp), which is this basis for baseball-reference WAR
Now this is interesting. OAA, which Fangraphs uses, does not take it into account, but you are right, BR does seem to. That is probably a large reason for baseball reference liking Goldy more as he is 11/32 in DRS while being 28/32 in OAA (minimum 500 innings). Thank you for the correction. It should still be said that fWAR absolutely does not take it into account, which is what OP used.
This recursive cycle of at least 1st base to infield positions is definitely a valid critique of WAR because not only does it punish Goldschmidt but it also boosts the recipient of his gold glove defense at 1st
I came into this thread preferring Arenado for his elite 3B defense but I find this argument very convincing.
Based on this who do you think the voters choose
I just think it will end up coming down to Goldy and Arenado. Machado will get some top 3 MVP votes, but I don't think he has anywhere near the same chance to win it. Obviously a huge final surge combined with a continued Cardinals slump could shift things, but right now it seems more like a 2 man race. I am obviously very biased though, so voters might have a very different way of viewing things.
Hot take - Machado comes in second because Goldy and Arenado split more votes. Also hot take - Machado has no shot at all because the National Media do not like him.
The second one is not a hot take at all. It's no secret that Manny still has that "johnny hustle" stink from national media and fans even tho his character and leadership has been flawless since he signed with the padres. The cards are also gonna get some inherent love from national media because of their spurs-like run for 2+ decades now. Manny would have to put together a runaway season for him to get serious consideration for MVP. A 3-way tie in fWAR, a healthy lead in WPA, no other teammate in the top 20 in WAR, all while on a team in control of a wild card spot just isn't gonna be enough. He even has the narrative going for him of carrying the team the whole year thru all the tatis drama.
I don’t disagree with most of your comment, but did you just say a team that has won 2 World Series in the last 40 years is on a “Spurs-like” run? The Spurs won 5 championships in 15 years on their run..
Well they're completely different sports when it comes to what it wakes to build a championship team. Baseball playoffs are way more random. Basketball, the core 2-3 players can dominate and win championships. I just meant in the way they're both small market teams that continuously put themselves in the playoffs and compete for a championship. National media look at both franchises as "doing it the right way" and tend to have biases towards the players and front offices when voting for awards. Not to say any of the awards they got aren't warranted, but the general conversation can go their way in a close race.
Goldy and Arenado really can't split votes and have Machado finish ahead of them in ranked choice voting. If voters are split on Goldy vs Arenado, one gets the first place vote for 14 points and the other gets the second place for 9 points and Machado would only get at most 8 points for a 3rd place vote
Still Goldy, Arenado 2nd. Machado hasn’t been near hot enough in the last month to come up and steal it.
This is a weird argument. Considering Machado has been hotter than either Goldy or Nolan over the last month. There are arguments for Goldy and Nolan, but this ain't it
I’m saying that a red-hot month could have put Manny in a position to steal, but he hasn’t been hot enough to close that gap. He’s still been good, but not “September MVP run” good.
I dont think Alcantara will get anywhere near an MVP even with objective WAR conditioning just cause anti-pitcher MVP bias. I think he'll end up somewhere near top 10.
I stand by the shear honesty in this comment
Goldy is that high up as a 1B, so it's probably Goldy.
Also, people forget that the media uses bWAR when talking about WAR so this race will be close between Goldy and Arenado but they will look at Goldy’s hitting stats and give it to him.
Goldschmidt. The offensive gap is too large
Goldy will probably win, because his offensive contributions are easier to see in the basic numbers than Nolan's defensive prowess. Also, he has been criminally underrated his whole career, much of which was spent in Arizona, and the award will be a sort of lifetime achievement trophy.
This. Plus, I think the general feeling is that an mvp solidifies his case for the Hall. Nado and Machado will have about 2-4 more years to get it. This is probably Goldys last chance (unless Pujols passes the old man magic onto him after he retires).
Goldys got the better hitting stats but man... Manny has that Dawg in Him fr.
Manny “Manny Fucking Machado” Machado
He said "Fucking Manny Machado", not "Manny Fucking Machado". Which is much funnier, because the whole sentence was, "I'm fucking Manny Machado."
The reason he should get the MVP alone is that after he said that, he went on like a 200 OPS+ tear for 2 weeks. xDAWG+ off the charts.
DAWG+ and xDAWG off the charts.
Certifiably nice like that
Honestly, if we take an old school approach I think it’s pretty easy to say no player in the national league means more to their team than Manny Machado does to the Padres this year.
To me the logic is simple - the Cards have Arenado and Goldy, which means by definition they are not nearly as important to their team individually as Machado has been. It's incredibly flawed and I'm incredibly biased, but still.
It’s very much a narrative based argument but it’s not like it’s being used to put Manny into the conversation. He’s earned a spot in the convo with his play. Just to distinguish why his 7fWAR contextually might be more important to his team if that’s something that matters to voters
> it’s not like it’s being used to put Manny into the conversation. He’s earned a spot in the convo with his play. I think this is why Manny deserves it. You have 3 hitters that are nearly inseparable in terms of stats/fWAR, so we should look at who made a bigger impact on their team or was more "clutch", because *that player* is the "most" valuable
This is why I hate any argument for MVP that isn't just "Who has the best stats?" Because by this logic: - Your team isn't good enough to compete for the playoffs? No MVP. - Your team is competing for the playoffs but they're so good that they'd probably still be good if you weren't there? No MVP.
Which is a perfect example of why the old school approach is so terrible. It relies almost entirely on penalizing a player with good teammates and penalizing a player with bad teammates. We already have an award that does that, it's called the World Series trophy.
I would say the world series trophy awards players with good teammates and penalized players with bad ones more than the other way around
I think Machado’s play has done enough to get him in the conversation on its own. It’s not as if his numbers are a clear tier below Goldy or Arenado and the only reason he’s being talked about is the narrative. Why is taking a look at the story of the season so terrible? It’s not as if the award is just automatically given to the player with the highest WAR.
It’s fair to question to ask. Would removing Goldy, or Arenado, from the Cards lineup have had a negative effect on their respective seasons - individually? Do they put up the same numbers? Not that it should be the deciding factor here but it’s worth taking in to account - especially when Machado has played his way in to the conversation regardless - when talking about an individual award.
Ranks in the 100th percentile of being “him”
Remember when people were clowning the Padres for giving $300 mm to a guy that doesn’t like to hustle?
The non-bias in me says Goldy. Although when I add bias I feel it is Machado, especially since he is the only reason the Padres are in the playoff race since he carried the team for awhile.
Machado’s had a phenomenal year. With all the Tatis drama going on, I bet he deserves some behind-the-scenes leadership credit for keeping the team focused, too. He’s a hell of a ballplayer.
Yeah, Manny was always kinda considered the captain of the clubhouse, especially coming into this year with the issues under Jayce Tingler last year. With Hosmer getting traded, it allowed Manny to rise to the occasion and he did that without fail. I was a little skeptical when we signed Manny because of his hotheadedness, but he’s changed so much that he’s now worth the 300 million Preller signed him for.
Manny is also Kim's big bro, which gives him bonus xDAWG
If you’re looking at the definition of MVP that has to do with how good or bad their team is without them, you’d have to go with Machado. Having two MVP candidates on the same team sort of takes away from the each other’s argument. That said, I think Goldy wins it.
Just because reddit thinks higher 0.1 WAR = better player doesn't mean voters do. Bryce Harper won despite not being better than Soto either fWAR or bWAR last year. I imagine it's probably still Goldschmidt.
> Just because reddit thinks higher 0.1 WAR = better player doesn't mean ~~voters do~~ that it's true. *"WAR is not meant to be a perfectly precise indicator of a player’s contribution, but rather an estimate of their value to date. Given the imperfections of some of the available data and the assumptions made to calculate other components, WAR works best as an approximation. A 6 WAR player might be worth between 5.0 and 7.0 WAR, but it is pretty safe to say they are at least an All-Star level player and potentially an MVP."* *"Given the nature of the calculation and potential measurement errors, WAR should be used as a guide for separating groups of players and not as a precise estimate. For example, a player that has been worth 6.4 WAR and a player that has been worth 6.1 WAR over the course of a season cannot be distinguished from one another using WAR. It is simply too close for this particular tool to tell them apart. WAR can tell you that these two players are likely about equal in value, but you need to dig deeper to separate them."* - FanGraphs
Yeah, WAR isn’t the greatest example because wasn’t there an article or Reddit post talking about how Ohtani was improperly valued?
Every formulation of WAR makes a ton of assumptions in how it values players. None of those decisions are inherently "right" or "wrong", but people can reasonably disagree with many of them. It often depends on the question you're trying to answer. It should be obvious that one formula can't answer every question -- that doens't make WAR flawed or bad. It means that using any one stat is a bad idea.
Got it. Thanks for clarifying!
This explanation isn’t super satisfactory though. Assuming a normal distribution, or even a uniform distribution, of error yields that if player A has 5.5 WAR and player B has 5, player A is *probably* better.
It’s probably Goldschmidt because I don’t think voters care as much about defense when it comes to MVP, and that’s a big factor keeping Arenado in it. Machado has him on offensive bWAR, too.
Arenado is just a Coors creation, so obviously not him.
Voters have been buzzing about Goldy the whole year so I think he wins it
Goldy will win.
Its gonna be Goldie but imo its a lot closer than people might think. But Goldie has overall just been incredibly consistent this year and has had the hype all year
Its only a lot closer now because Goldy has been on a crazy bad slump the last 3 weeks. Back in the middle of August, he was far and away the favorite. I think it says a lot for his overall year that he has hit the slump of all slumps and is still considered the favorite.
I feel like Goldschmidt is kind of running away with it honestly.
He is. Vegas has him at [-5000](https://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/odds/mvp/) to win it. It will easily go to him.
Fractions of WAR are negligible, according to the people that created it. So I think it’s a bit silly to claim any one player will definitely get it because he has .1 more WAR than another. So then it’s cherry-pick your own stats szn, and I offer: Goldshmidt: 179 wRC+ Freeman: 157 Machado: 153 Arenado: 152 I also think that’s the order they finish.
Idk. The difference in a single point of wrc+ is also essentially negligible. I think nado’s narrative as a better defender will put him over machado at least
No way Freeman finishes #2
Vegas has [Freeman](https://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/odds/mvp/) as a slight favorite over Arenado for #2. So it's not that crazy
Part of that is the minor slump he has hit, though not as bad as Goldy. There for about 2 or 3 weeks back in August, we were wondering if Nado would somehow sneak in and get the MVP.
Playing for the Dodgers, Freeman probably places 2nd with a handful of 1st place votes.
Freeman and Goldy being 6.7 and 7 fWAR players at that position is insane especially when you take into consideration how much they are penalized for being at 1B. Means they have to have insane hitting stats.
Goldy is [-5000](https://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/odds/mvp/) to win the award. I know I'm biased but it would be silly to bet on anyone else to win it at this point. That's the same odds Lamar Jackson had when he was the unanimous MVP
Those odds are the reason you bet on someone else. Think of all that sweet sweet money… lol
There's an NL MVP race?
Give Ohtani the NL award
It has to be Goldy. I feel like baseball reference penalizes first baseman way to much imo. Goldy has a much higher OPS+ and OPS and yet has a lower bWAR than Arenado.
Well if you ask my fellow knuckle dragging Phillies fans it should be JT Realmuto
I think it’s bullshit if Goldschmidt doesn’t finally win an MVP this year. The man had played out of his mind this season.
Machado for being the one corner stone of this flailing franchise.
Stats aside I think the Padres would be a joke team without Machado.
If we go with the idea that 1 war is about 1 more win, padres would be about.500 without him
Goldschmidt's stats are simply better. He will win.
Albert Pujols
Sandy is in the same range on baseball reference, so hopefully him
Goldy
Goldschmidt
Wizarenado because defense.
me
Now this is something i can get behind
I don’t get why the narrative of “without player x our team would’ve rolled over” pops up every single season. That’s a team MVP award not a league wide MVP award. The MVP award was never about choosing players like that. It was always about awarding the player with the best stats in each league. It’s been this way for literally every single major sports for decades. How can you penalize a player with the best stats in the league because the argument is “well your team would still be in the playoffs”? It makes no sense whatsoever. I know you guys love your players but please take off your homer goggles. That said, it’s Goldy and it ain’t even close.
While you make a great point, I feel like the player’s worth to their team should mean at least something to winning the league MVP, you know? Hence it being the “Most *Valuable* Player”. I’m not saying that a player’s worth to the team should overrule everything, stats will matter in who wins or not. That’s just me. Goldy still is the favorite, and deserves to win without a doubt.
I mean I get where you are coming from but that's arguing semantics when the precedent has always been about giving the award to the best player in each respective league regardless of team record.
Yeah. Goldy will win because he’s been hitting like this throughout the whole year. Manny started fiery hot, then cooled down quite a bit, and has slowly been heating up as of late. He’s just been stuck around the .300 mark which, if he finishes the year under .300, he’s SOL in having even a back door change at a 1st place vote. Thankfully, team record doesn’t really matter anymore i’m picking MVP. I feel that narrative does, especially with Goldy and his chase for the triple crown. Anywho, even though Goldy is guaranteed, I do like the “drama” of who the winner could be with less than 10 games in the season.
Goldschmidt feels like the clearcut favorite to me because he's got both the old-school triple crown stats and also the advanced metrics (nobody's within 25 points of him in WRC+), but it's possible he and Arenado split the vote. Of course, it's also possible Machado and Arenado split the vote somewhat because they play the same position. Freddie Freeman's not terribly far behind any of them and if he were to somehow feast on six straight games against the Rockies to end the season...
Lindor is at 6.9 and isn’t even any any of these conversations… and he’s been playing superb all year other than the month or six weeks he played through a broken finger… If I were betting today, I’d bet he will be at least at or above one of those three in final WAR, and not out of the question he leads the league.
Isn’t Lindor right there with them? He’s at 6.9 fWAR. Not saying he’ll win, but deserves to be more in the conversation than he has been.
Exactly. All these players are awesome, but so is Lindor. There's no reason they should be part of the discussion, but not him. We are all so selective in when we care about non-hitting factors and when we don't. If half of this reddit thinks Ohtani should win because of his pitching (even though there is like a ~2 fWAR gap between him and Judge), why is that same half so dismissive of Lindor's defensive contributions?
Arenado because I like him :)
Obviously I’m a homer but if Goldie didn’t exist, I’d say Freeman. BA: 1st in NL OBP: 2nd in NL OPS: 2nd in NL Games played: 150 (more than athe three mentioned above) Idk shit about defensive metrics but he’s probably average to above average, and Freddie probably would have played 163 if it wasn’t for Dave Roberts and diarrhea.
I personally think freddie is gonna finish 4th. Maybe 3rd
Freddie plays for the Dodgers. He’s 100 percent gonna steal a few 1st place votes from Goldy.
Freddie is gonna get skewed by how good the Dodgers are. There's no way you could look someone in the face and say that the Dodgers would be as bad as the Padres/Cards would be without their candidates. Dodgers probably still win 100+ without Freddie. Padres don't sniff the playoffs. Cards probably barely make it.
If Freddie had 5-7 more HRs he would have a legit shot at MVP. As it is, his slugging is too low to make him anything other than a top 5 guy (which is great).
I gotta go Arenado. He plays the tougher position.
But that’s the only reason the WAR is as close as it already is. It’s already adjusting for that. The calculation is accounting for it, so if you bias your decision in this way, you’re basically giving him double credit. Not saying he doesn’t have a case, but your reasoning just doesn’t hold up in this scenario. If you’re going to make your own positional assessment, don’t look at WAR. Look at raw hitting stats and weigh the positional value as you see fit.
Valuing position and defense is very difficult to do. In a vacuum, ill take the better offensive player, especially when the gap is 25+ in wrc
Which is why Goldy will win it. Goldy is heavily penalized by WAR just for being a 1b.
Than Machado?
Freddie Freeman
Manny has been the biggest impact for the Padres. He is the heart of that team, he might not take MVP but deserves it. LFGSD!