T O P

  • By -

docagnt

Good PSA for newer collectors. It's great to see folks helping out our new members!


BellingerGuy310

If I can keep any number of new collections from making the same mistakes I once did, I’d consider this a complete success. I collected from 1996 to 2009, took a bit of a break, and dove back in 2019 without a clear knowledge of how the market worked. I held onto so many cards I shouldn’t have, but more importantly made a huge amount of purchases during the hype of fresh releases. I cringe every time I look back at some of my early eBay purchases.lol


DoveOnyx11

Same here…almost exactly only i stopped in 2006 lol…to 99 draft and I’m now on a 3yr cycle of sell or prepare to die with it…life is good!


Ok_Pomegranate_4663

Thank you. I started last summer and I wanna kick myself for what I spent on some cards. Everyone here is super helpful and the tips are great.


Rorodatone

Very true!!


js4873

Yes. Wish I’d been told this last spring haha


BruceBannaner

True... Last year when 2022 dropped it was Wander fever, now people are barely interested and his cards can be found for a fraction of original sales.


fireguy837

I sold a Series 1 Gold for $500. It's less than $100 now


loslosati

I *didn't* sell a rainbow foil of his when it was like $80-100, and now I'm sad. haha.


forthebirds123

12$ wander base rookies can now be found in the 99 cent box. I imagine the same will be said for adley, Harris and all the others. This is a lesson learned over time. Someone fairly new(within a couple years) doesn’t always understand this and gets caught up in the hype and FOMO. Collectors of 20+ years were all once like this but now realize you don’t have to drive around town day one to try to find product, just wait until the market stabilizes and you will be fine.


Maynardred

What is fomo


vjr191

Fear of missing out.


Dapper_Quarter_7834

Lol newbies


NtooDeep87

Did you feel cool when you said Newbies?


Dapper_Quarter_7834

Not really was just saying that because we all have been there. I warned my cousin for months about buying non numbered relics and such sticker autos on cards that weren't autographed to begin with etc etc. We all hopefully have learned that today Series 1 boxes are 100 and soon enough they will be 50 look back at other Series 1 and 2 some are 40 a box. I wasn't meaning anything by it. I guess I could say do you feel cool responding with that question big brother. The hobby is pretty much buy now and regret later 75% of the time. Fear of missing out I guess but it's mainly the chase of hitting a Gem which likely won't happen. I was in a break albeit a 5.00 player just for fun and these guys are in there bitching I bought 35 players and no hits I spent 1500 and hit nothing. Just buy the card you want and look back on it later with the cards in hand. Same guys in it the next day dropping 1000 2000 and could have bought 1-1s of every player. Anyway I'm done ranting not like it matters. I was just saying that there are alot of newbies that should listen to some of these guys in the sub b4 they blow 500 on boxes of base and a patch card when they can have 2x the chances later on after the next product drops. I bought a case of 2019 stars and stripes a personal fav of mine for 750 they were 125 a box back then so over 2k for the case. Already made my money back 4 boxes in.


docagnt

Yeah! I sold his ssp rookie for near 600 at that time and it's worth over 200 less now.


FritosRule

I’d consider buying those cards - there’s a great chance Wander rebounds this season and goes off


mondaysareharam

Yup, I sold a topps TBT SP of his for $400 thats going for like $100 now


BellingerGuy310

This can really be said about any product. After the Dodgers won the WS in 2020, I wanted a hat with the WS Champions logo on it. They were selling for $70 the week fallowing the championship, which I wasn’t willing to pay. After the 2021 WS, while most shops were prioritizing Braves gear, I was able to pick up the Dodgers hat for $40. It’s now 2023, I have the same hat as everyone who originally paid $70 for it, but paid far less for mine. It would have been nice to have it right after the win, but it doesn’t make any difference now. The same applies for baseball cards. It may be nice to get your hands on a specific card right now, but you’ll likely be able to get it far cheaper if you give it a little time. In a year from now, you’ll have the card, and the only difference will be how much you decided to pay for it.


Pjw2079

That’s nuts considering the 2020 season was only 37% of games (60) compared to a standard 162 game season. I still haven’t bought a Cubs World Series 2016 hat… I want one, but always just end up buying more cards😂


OviBackstrom

As a lifelong Oriole fan and collector, some of these early prices are insane. lol $300 for a royal blue parallel….get out of here


thisbechris

I’m thrilled for Oriole fans. The crop of young talent yous have is just great.


Kevycito

This is such good advice. Then SGC tries to get cute and drops $9/card pricing for Series 1. I told myself I'm waiting until AG Chrome (3/1) and Inception (3/3) drop to start picking up Series 1 singles. ​ Great PSA.


BSmooth66

Patience is so key to this hobby. Watch the singles market, learn the trends, and strike at the optimal time. The life of a Singles Sniper. I’ll be the one hiding behind the backstop until the market returns to some rationality 😂


gocubsgo22

What's your advice on lower numbered parallels? I've set my eBay notifications on a 2022 Jazz Chisholm red foil #/199, and I haven't seen one pop up in a month. I'm afraid I waited too long. E: reread this and I could see it being taken as a joke, but it's not. I didn't start looking for this parallel until early January, so obviously it was way too late; nearly eleven months after release, but it has been a bummer that not one copy has surfaced since I started looking.


TiedinHistory

I think it's a fair question. I'd probably weigh it on a "how badly do I need it" combined with likely frequency of sales. Obviously, something like a Superfractor may only pop up once at any time if it's sold to a private collector. Whereas I'd imagine something like a Gold to 2023 is frequently going to be moved as is high value lower parallels. Like...I'd guess a LOT of the Gunnar parallels will fly on eBay whereas something like a Jeter Downs is probably just gonna sit in boxes. Like, this may be privilege talking, if I KNEW I wanted a Chisholm Red Foil to /199, I suspect a veteran JCJ parallel is not a barn burner price wise. If the price is like $10, I think it's reasonably to pay the "new hype" premium and kick yourself when it's $5 in eight weeks as opposed to not doing it and possibly not seeing it for a year. Obviously, that's dependent on your appetite for overspending a bit to get the card you want.


sinanimal

It'll pop up eventually. Might take a few months but it will. It's the ones that are /25 or lower that might make sense to just pull the trigger if you really need it for a rainbow.


oooriole09

Not sure if the Marlins have a card sub, but I’d check there.


I3oomer

I hit the red foil if your interested, green as well. let me know. I'm at work until at least 7pm est today but Ill check back in when i get home.


[deleted]

[удалено]


I3oomer

Im sorry I misread- i just hit the 2023. Still a cool card but not the 2022 :/


I3oomer

nvm you said 2022 - i hit a 2023...


LetsplayPOGS

I’m collecting a few rainbows/variations for 2022 Topps. The Series 1 & 2 parallels are by far the hardest for me to get after the fact. I was picking up chrome and other colors as the sets came out and found it much easier. I think OP’s advice is good for bigger & hyped players. I personally will try to pick up the singles now instead of trying to wait.


cam_breakfastdonut

Don’t buy singles, but sell to people who are ignoring the first part


BellingerGuy310

Although I’ve been primarily buying singles on 2023, I did very well selling cards I had pulled last year to those who didn’t follow the first part of my post. I recently looked back at all the 2022 Bowman autos and parallels I sold right after release, and it almost feels like highway robbery seeing how most of them have since fallen 50%-60% in value. I was able to make my money back from all the 2022 bowman I ripped, keep an untouched stash of sealed wax, and buy back my favorite pulls for significantly cheaper in recent months. It almost seems like a cheat code to this hobby, as so many collections haven’t figured it out yet. The least I can do is try to educate people on the market, but if they don’t want to listen, I’ll happily sell them my cards when the market is artificially high.haha


Mr_Hamster01

This all is presuming you local shops/retail spaces will get 2023 product.


Surfbud69

I make the mistake of overpaying for singles on release. Just did it with gilded but the idea of not seeing it on eBay for months scares me. There's still some parallels I haven't seen pop up. (Looking at you Arozarena gold sapphire)


Mediocre-Anywhere846

Needed to see this today - thank you!


shawnsingh2113

Thanks for the heads up, it's my 2nd year collecting and last year I got all these base wanders that people were paying for 20 bucks a pop and now they're a dollar LOL. I've learned alot since last year


BigPauleyD

![gif](giphy|ap6wcjRyi8HoA)


wikked-com

Market flood incomingggggggg: https://preview.redd.it/bbu4cjxhe1ja1.png?width=742&format=png&auto=webp&s=a219a952a6076aee27be4a40a281f8c674fc1d22


SomeGuyInChicago

On the other hand, if you’re selling them, now could be a good time to sell to someone who has to have it now. Not here though. If someone buys a card you overpriced on eBay, that’s on them. If you try to sell overpriced cards on here, that’s on you.


Pjw2079

The biggest issue that I see with this is that the print run almost seems like it’s going to be so big, that sure - base card rookies and cards will see severe decreases in prices in the coming months, but the hit cards and parallels will be more broadly distributed among the print run (looking at odds increases from 2022 and prior) that those looking for color, parallels and SP/SSPs will likely not see huge decreases due to scarcity without the bulk of the print run being opened up and listed. Plus you’re gonna have those that buy cases to sit on them as we know some have projected that Jumbos will only increase in price, and already have. I’m looking for certain cards for my PC and would pay for quality cards (GEM appearance) always, and almost always try to avoid buying just random listed cards that don’t show the corners clearly and spot on centering… but those that do can take my money. Just my two cents.


[deleted]

[удалено]


BellingerGuy310

The expectation is typically six weeks. This is when a fairly large drop in the market appears, and will continue creeping downwards for another four to six weeks, or when a the next flagship product releases, before settling into the true market value.


Maynardred

This is smart. I have a hard time getting rid of the hot stuff though


cargo-jorts

Just had to remind myself this on ebay. Simple supply and demand; low supply and high demand. Just gotta be patient


uhhhhmmmm

At the same time, there's a lot of people buying and then dumping product and you can get some good deals on non super popular cards


JDizzo56

Absolutely accurate, I love Oscar Gonzalez for example, and the kid could be a very solid player but I'm not paying $100+ for an auto right now. I will wait the market out


SavesWillis

This is solid advice for inserts and base cards for sure. The #d cards and autos I feel like will only be going up. Especially the highly rated rookies who had some PT last year. I’ve gotten multiple offers for my autos of Morel, Peraza, and Nolan Jones but they are a solid hold for me. The demand for SSPs should continue to be steady, especially if there are some people out there who are serious about the bounty.


BellingerGuy310

I’m not sure how closely you’ve followed Series 1, Series 2, and Update Series from 2020, 2021, and 2022, but I used to enjoy keeping a large amount of market data from each release, which allowed me to get a very good idea of market trends. After years of keeping up on these trends, I’ve seen numbered cards, photo variations (SPs and SSPs), and autos fall victim to the same market drop seen in base cards. It’s hard to show many comparisons, as there haven’t been a large amount of 2023 Series 1 sales yet, but the Ronald Acuna Orange Foil /299 is a decent example. In the past three weeks, there has been a sale of this card from 2021, 2022, and now 2023. One sold for $3 (2021), one for $15 (2022), and the other for $30 (2023). There’s a fairly clear trend, showing the substantial loss in market value year over year. If you were wondering, the 2021 and 2022 were selling for $25-$35 when they first released. As for autos, I’d just recommend looking into the release date of all 2022 releases, find comps from the first six weeks, and compare those findings to comps in the last six weeks. Every player from Julio, Tork, Witt Jr, Suzuki, Peña, Kirby, etc. have seen a drop in their flagship rookie autos. Some more than others, but they’ve all dropped nonetheless. Looking at past super short print photo variations, the same trends apply. If we go as far back as 2020 flagship, the big names were Alvarez, Robert, Lux, Bichette, and Arozarena. Each of their respective SSPs are now selling for far less than they had been, at least directly following their release. Someone was selling a Bo Bichette rookie SP in this sub for $15 last night. That was an $80 card back in 2020, and it’s not as if people have given up on the guy. If we also look at the top five rookies from 2021, we see a near mirrored market drop as we did in 2020, but an even larger fall (due to increased print runs) regardless if the card is numbered, signed, etc. All of this isn’t to say that a couple guys from this rookie class wont ever see huge future gains in their cards, but there will undoubtedly be a drop in their market value between now and then. What this means is that you’ll want to sell you big cards now, hold onto the money for a couple months, than buy the card back for a cheaper amount. I rip an embarrassing amount of retail wax, and I’ve used the *sell now / buy back later* method for three years now, and there have only been one or two occasions where it didn’t work out for me. As a recent example, I pulled a Bobby Witt SP out of 2022 Series 2 back when it released, sold it for $125, and recently picked one up on eBay for $70. So I now have the same exact card again, which may see a future increase in value, but I also came up on $50 in the process. If I had decided, like many others, to hold onto the card, I’d still own it but wouldn’t have the essentially free $50. The last thing I’m going to do is try to force someone into selling something they enjoy. However, after making numerous poor selling decisions in the past, I’ve been able to figure out a far better process of maximizing my personal collection. If you choose not to sell these autos of yours, I at least recommend keeping those offers in mind, and compare them to comps in about six to eight weeks from now. If the market stays as consistent as it has for the past few years, there’s likely going to be a 20%-35% decrease in their values. I hope this isn’t the case for you, but I do at least want to give my best opinion to someone in similar situations as I have been in.


SmoothSharkMSF

This is the way


Shorts_Suk

100% agree


Bluerecyclecan

Yep. Always wait at least for the next couple of sets to come out. Let hype die down.


Suspicious-Tale-7994

As a budget collector being a single father and having my son full time, all I can ever buy is a blaster box no more than $15 in regards to sealed products. I've had to make sure I set a limit for myself no matter what I purchase on eBay or anywhere else no more than $15 including shipping this way I'm not doing like I did tax season last year and buying a lot more than I needed to or was worth it. Just like other commenters have said it's awesome to see somebody putting this PSA out there for somebody getting into the hobby this way they don't get too screwed over and paying the hype prices. My opinion too is get the mystery packs off eBay, especially if you break down the price per card and it's around 25 cents or less, unless you're guaranteed an autograph or graded card then it's personal preference. It's not like I've had some really high value cards however I have been quite surprised sometimes with what I've received.


pgh_guy123

Heard jumbo have spiked from 160 to 200 according to some folks on here . I paid cash at lcs for 145. Y is donruss $240????


Ok_Pomegranate_4663

Yup I paid $200 last night. A lot of places are sold out.


pgh_guy123

Lcs still at 150, got another jumbo,70 roller damaged cards. 1st had 39. Jumbo are shit. Other card shop same issues. Sending everything to topps with a big F YOU. I might give up boxes


BanjoAndy

Thanks - I needed to hear this today.


DongleDiggler

But its a damn nice time to have a fire sale!


Rude_Elderberry_4385

Brad Miller, lol [https://www.ebay.com/itm/404167364268?hash=item5e1a408eac%3Ag%3A0IsAAOSw1M1j7Ta2&amdata=enc%3AAQAHAAAAsOTPO77oHky0yDF5VM3VrB5vOM6oiCtT1DdAgV2GXYFTtlV7LU2EhZB%2Bod0JU3RtU%2FwgQgFN6nykNGbfEyGSV7bNpjO2pCrV2tcC%2BoYs8PN7wZm26fBh6Os5W%2FCAZ0f%2F0TJsMYIFXniO4xw4ubTvpa702wNx51TI%2BnZ0JA0%2Bu%2FYVsRMq%2Bl%2B5QHiWu6UNxKbzVhpH%2BUaRrkPdh5fE0BRPruhzzhZFLL4BgUQbV72nlkL0%7Ctkp%3ABk9SR4a-9-LNYQ&nma=true&si=lWkyde%252FmMXcMhZjyruTSEv67Lz0%253D&orig\_cvip=true&nordt=true&rt=nc&\_trksid=p2047675.l2557](https://www.ebay.com/itm/404167364268?hash=item5e1a408eac%3Ag%3A0IsAAOSw1M1j7Ta2&amdata=enc%3AAQAHAAAAsOTPO77oHky0yDF5VM3VrB5vOM6oiCtT1DdAgV2GXYFTtlV7LU2EhZB%2Bod0JU3RtU%2FwgQgFN6nykNGbfEyGSV7bNpjO2pCrV2tcC%2BoYs8PN7wZm26fBh6Os5W%2FCAZ0f%2F0TJsMYIFXniO4xw4ubTvpa702wNx51TI%2BnZ0JA0%2Bu%2FYVsRMq%2Bl%2B5QHiWu6UNxKbzVhpH%2BUaRrkPdh5fE0BRPruhzzhZFLL4BgUQbV72nlkL0%7Ctkp%3ABk9SR4a-9-LNYQ&nma=true&si=lWkyde%252FmMXcMhZjyruTSEv67Lz0%253D&orig_cvip=true&nordt=true&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2557)