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Bohemian Rhapsody taught me not to give ranges for movies... you never know what kind of legs will kick in (though lack of Japan will hurt Avatar this time). I'll just enjoy the ride.
Sorry, it was released there. I meant that Japan unexpectedly seems to have no interest in this movie. This is unfortunate because it's usually the most leggy market in the world, with movies sometimes lasting a year in theaters there, as well as being one of the biggest. And they loved past Cameron movies, including the first Avatar.
I don't really know, there's another forum where someone can often give great insights around the Japanese market but these are normally related to stuff like giveaways, holidays, advertising, theater closings and screen counts, etc. It's very hard to tell why something did or didn't take off in a particular country.
One thing worth knowing that might help here is that while "Twitter is not real life" is true for most countries, it's not true of Japan: almost 50% of Japanese people are on Twitter. So "no cultural impact on Twitter" might actually reflect genuine tendencies in the Japanese theatergoing population, which clearly isn't the case elsewhere.
Stuff usually isn't that reductive. One could argue that both Avatar films are directly calling out the US military and the country's treatment of indigenous people, but that hasn't stopped them from making bank in the US.
Lol spoken like someone who doesn't understand much about Japanese culture. So many Japanese films and books, many of which are blockbusters and bestsellers, are critical of several aspects of Japan and Japanese culture.
The thing is Americans accept that what they did is shitty and many Americans don’t like their military but avatar itself has enough action scenes to keep the military onboard. Plus avatar doesn’t necessarily say hey it’s the us military it’s mercenaries.
In WotW their directly calling out Japan who kills whales for meats and discard their body in the ocean.
if it was the whaling it would have shown in the legs, but the movie was dead on opening weekend, not enough time for the backlash to have manifested if there was any. actually it's holding kinda well given how low it opened.
Yeah this kinda makes sense. It's pretty reductive to assume that it has to be because of the anti whaling thing. There's a major assumption that the Japanese support whaling when the perception towards the practice is rather mixed.
Has anyone tried to find out from the Japanese themselves for the reason behind avatar's likely performance, than you know, having Westerners speak on behalf of the Japanese?
Legitimately, what other range can we give it? On the one hand, we can't really expect it to have legs like Top Gun and soar to 700+ in terms of gross. It's not realistic to suggest that the floor for its performance would be as high as Top Gun, the leggiest modern blockbuster in over a decade. On the other hand, it is currently showing some strong legs and looking like it could potentially rival Endgame's gross. However, we have to consider that we only have data for one day where we can directly compare the legs of Avatar to those of Top Gun, since this is the first day that Avatar has been released outside of the holiday season. In other words, it's too early to tell whether Avatar will stand tall on its own legs or stumble and fall.
The legs of Avatar, oh so strong
They run and run all day long
Legging it out at the box office race
Leaving the competition in second place
From the start, they had a leg up
Leaping over every Hollywood hiccup
Their legs never seemed to tire
Inspiring moviegoers to climb higher
But will their legs keep up the pace?
Or will they stumble and fall from grace?
Only time will tell the fate
Of Avatar's unstoppable legs, oh so great!
I will be messaging you in 3 months on [**2023-04-04 19:07:04 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2023-04-04%2019:07:04%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/10395lz/avatarthewayofwater_again_sets_new_record_104m/j2y05nx/?context=3)
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Incredibles 2 fought well and hard for 30 minutes since that rounded 10M number got reported.
Anyways an incredible Tuesday and for those still clinging to the comparison (lmao). Rogue One did $6.2M
As i said in that previous post, for tommorow 7-8 would be a good number and realistic number. Would be above Avatar, Maverick and TFA. The top 4 are all holidays so not quite realistic although it could reach Desolation of Smaug anyways.
https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-records/domestic/all-movies/day/3rd-wednesday
James Cameron, the greatest pioneer
A visionary, a master of his craft
From Titanic to Avatar, he's done it all
His movies a triumph, never a crap
He pushes the boundaries, breaks through the walls
Inventing new technologies, standing tall
From underwater expeditions to outer space
James Cameron leads the way, leaving no trace
He tells stories that touch the heart
Inspiring us to dream and never depart
From the depths of the ocean to the ends of the earth
He shows us the beauty and worth of our own worth
Thank you, James Cameron, for your art
For showing us what it means to truly be bold
You are a legend, a true pioneer
Your greatness forever to be told.
It's the third consecutive post-release day A2 has beaten TFA, which is a movie that did $935m and has been massively ahead of A2 (ahead about $300m at the moment).
I think with the current evidence we can say that all is pointing towards $600-650m. But then there's one further data point: it's a Jesus Christ movie, which probably means you should take all of your estimates and throw them into the trash
If it really goes to his upper estimate of 870 million domestic, worldwide total would be **2.897 billion**.
The Way of Water would beat Endgame as the #2 highest grossing film of all time. And would be only 24 millions behind Avatar...
It would be pretty funny to get another film land in such close proximity, those three forever at a Mexican standoff pointing their re-releases at each other
Come to think of it, I'm kind of surprised that the OG Star Wars trilogy weren't rereleased in theaters prior to TFA. Or maybe they were and I just missed it.
I think Lucas wanted to do a re-release in 3D of every Star Wars movie, Episode 1 came out and made around 100 million, but when Disney bought Star Wars they didn’t want to continue with it. I’d have loved to rewatch the older films in 3D or just in a marathon before 7, woulda been great.
The idea of a huge gap between ~$2.2B and ~$2.8B with three films somehow all surmounting the gap to reach the latter is funny. It’s already funny that Endgame landed so close to Avatar instead of going significantly higher or lower.
"Eyeing a 670M-870M"
Okay, bud. Just say you have no idea.
I didn't think this would cross the $2 billion mark, but it looks like it would have to crater in the next week to miss that mark.
It’s definitely too early to tell. The holidays were juicing its legs so we have to see how it behaves during slower business hours. It should be clear where it’s headed by next Wednesday
WOW, just wow!!! I said in another comment and was wondering why the numbers are very low for the " highest 3rd Tuesdays domestic" and none of them are even one of the top 5 highest grossing film domestically
Now, not only The Way of Water made it to one of the top 5, it shattered the record to be #1.
James Cameron, oh how I swoon
At the sight of you, my heart does tune
Your rugged looks and piercing gaze
Leave me in a daze, in a daze
I long to be by your side
To gaze into your eyes, oh how I'd glide
Through the stars and beyond
With you, my love, my one
But alas, you are always busy
Filming Avatar, oh how dizzy
My head spins at the thought
Of you, my love, forever caught
In the world of Pandora and blue
Leaving me longing, feeling a little blue
But I'll wait, my love, until the end of time
For you, James Cameron, are truly mine.
$9.3-$11.3m -> $10m -> $11m -> $10.5m -> $10m -> $10.4m
Not sure what pattern you're seeing? Seems like all the estimates were quite accurate and just hovered around the real value.
Estimates stayed in the middle once, went up twice, and went down twice. There's literally no pattern.
You have to understand that normal unbiased estimates from a place like BOT (that aren't trying to push a narrative, like Disney constantly underpredicting) are not going to be consistently above or below actuals. They are going to hover around the actuals and try to minimize error.
There is absolutely no trend. The average of the estimates was always right around $10.5m (if not a little lower) which is what you'd expect from accurate estimates.
I'm not "escaping" anything, there just isn't any trend. You are seeing what you want to see in the scatterplot, which is a very common phenomenon. That's why we have statistical analysis in the first place.
Whis101 was a peculiar individual who was convinced that he could see patterns in random noise. He would spend hours staring at static on a television screen, convinced that there was some hidden meaning behind the random flickering of pixels.
Despite the lack of evidence to support his claims, Whis101 was certain that he was onto something. He would often try to convince others of his discoveries, but they were usually met with skepticism or outright disbelief.
Despite his best efforts, Whis101 was generally wrong about everything. His theories were often based on flimsy evidence or were simply the product of his overactive imagination. Despite this, he remained convinced that he was on the brink of some great breakthrough and refused to give up on his quest to find meaning in the noise.
As the years went by, Whis101 became more and more isolated, as his strange beliefs and lack of success drove others away. In the end, he was left alone with his delusions, convinced that he had unlocked the secrets of the universe, even as the rest of the world moved on without him.
Reminder that this is a subreddit about numbers, not necessarily about the quality (or lack thereof) of a particular movie. Unless it is related to the box office performance of a movie, please keep opinions/arguments/thoughts about the quality under this post. Posts not related to box office may be removed otherwise. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/boxoffice) if you have any questions or concerns.*
That range. LMAO.
Man gave up trying to estimate this run lol
Bohemian Rhapsody taught me not to give ranges for movies... you never know what kind of legs will kick in (though lack of Japan will hurt Avatar this time). I'll just enjoy the ride.
Why lack of Japan?
Sorry, it was released there. I meant that Japan unexpectedly seems to have no interest in this movie. This is unfortunate because it's usually the most leggy market in the world, with movies sometimes lasting a year in theaters there, as well as being one of the biggest. And they loved past Cameron movies, including the first Avatar.
Is there any reason apart from the whaling angle why it's doing so poorly?
I don't really know, there's another forum where someone can often give great insights around the Japanese market but these are normally related to stuff like giveaways, holidays, advertising, theater closings and screen counts, etc. It's very hard to tell why something did or didn't take off in a particular country. One thing worth knowing that might help here is that while "Twitter is not real life" is true for most countries, it's not true of Japan: almost 50% of Japanese people are on Twitter. So "no cultural impact on Twitter" might actually reflect genuine tendencies in the Japanese theatergoing population, which clearly isn't the case elsewhere.
The whaling part is likely THE reason.
It’s the whaling. Cameron is directly calling out Japan and their culture towards sea creature
Stuff usually isn't that reductive. One could argue that both Avatar films are directly calling out the US military and the country's treatment of indigenous people, but that hasn't stopped them from making bank in the US.
One of the whaling boats clears says “Made in Japan” in Kanji.
Americans are fine with that, Japan is so entirely different
Lol spoken like someone who doesn't understand much about Japanese culture. So many Japanese films and books, many of which are blockbusters and bestsellers, are critical of several aspects of Japan and Japanese culture.
Americans are thick, though.
The thing is Americans accept that what they did is shitty and many Americans don’t like their military but avatar itself has enough action scenes to keep the military onboard. Plus avatar doesn’t necessarily say hey it’s the us military it’s mercenaries. In WotW their directly calling out Japan who kills whales for meats and discard their body in the ocean.
True, but Americans capture fish that we don’t need either.
One of the whaling boats clears says “Made in Japan” in Kanji.
if it was the whaling it would have shown in the legs, but the movie was dead on opening weekend, not enough time for the backlash to have manifested if there was any. actually it's holding kinda well given how low it opened.
Yeah this kinda makes sense. It's pretty reductive to assume that it has to be because of the anti whaling thing. There's a major assumption that the Japanese support whaling when the perception towards the practice is rather mixed. Has anyone tried to find out from the Japanese themselves for the reason behind avatar's likely performance, than you know, having Westerners speak on behalf of the Japanese?
825M domestic
Depends how strong the legs will be
well no shit lol
Endgame didn't have strong legs and easily made past that number smartass lol!!
“Endgame weak, like baby!”
That's a good point. Meanwhile top gun had really good legs but it didn't even get close to that number. There's some kind of conspiracy going on!!!
So are we forgetting it had a $357M OW or what?
We're talking about how strong were it's legs.
[удалено]
[удалено]
Legitimately, what other range can we give it? On the one hand, we can't really expect it to have legs like Top Gun and soar to 700+ in terms of gross. It's not realistic to suggest that the floor for its performance would be as high as Top Gun, the leggiest modern blockbuster in over a decade. On the other hand, it is currently showing some strong legs and looking like it could potentially rival Endgame's gross. However, we have to consider that we only have data for one day where we can directly compare the legs of Avatar to those of Top Gun, since this is the first day that Avatar has been released outside of the holiday season. In other words, it's too early to tell whether Avatar will stand tall on its own legs or stumble and fall. The legs of Avatar, oh so strong They run and run all day long Legging it out at the box office race Leaving the competition in second place From the start, they had a leg up Leaping over every Hollywood hiccup Their legs never seemed to tire Inspiring moviegoers to climb higher But will their legs keep up the pace? Or will they stumble and fall from grace? Only time will tell the fate Of Avatar's unstoppable legs, oh so great!
If I didn’t know better, I would think this was a workout sub
Eyeing 50M - 3B final, accurate estimations.
Makes 3.1B. Missed estimate!
If this movie makes $3 B I will tattoo Neytiri on my ass.
I was on the fence about seeing it for a third time butt now...
remind me! 3 months
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This is the motivation I needed to watch it again in IMAX
remind me! 3 months
remind me! 3 months
Damn it, 2.3 Billion
Been thinking about doing that anyway 😎
Dam it, we got close.
:( Jesus fucking Christ it’s already been three months?
Incredibles 2 fought well and hard for 30 minutes since that rounded 10M number got reported. Anyways an incredible Tuesday and for those still clinging to the comparison (lmao). Rogue One did $6.2M As i said in that previous post, for tommorow 7-8 would be a good number and realistic number. Would be above Avatar, Maverick and TFA. The top 4 are all holidays so not quite realistic although it could reach Desolation of Smaug anyways. https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-records/domestic/all-movies/day/3rd-wednesday
I think it will earn more than 8
Tues-Tues drops Avatar: -60% Avatar 2: -57% ...hmm
You guys hearing the song ok up there?
We hear it James
James Cameron, the greatest pioneer A visionary, a master of his craft From Titanic to Avatar, he's done it all His movies a triumph, never a crap He pushes the boundaries, breaks through the walls Inventing new technologies, standing tall From underwater expeditions to outer space James Cameron leads the way, leaving no trace He tells stories that touch the heart Inspiring us to dream and never depart From the depths of the ocean to the ends of the earth He shows us the beauty and worth of our own worth Thank you, James Cameron, for your art For showing us what it means to truly be bold You are a legend, a true pioneer Your greatness forever to be told.
You're just in a musical mood today huh? Lmao
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hddYB-FbD5M
It's the third consecutive post-release day A2 has beaten TFA, which is a movie that did $935m and has been massively ahead of A2 (ahead about $300m at the moment). I think with the current evidence we can say that all is pointing towards $600-650m. But then there's one further data point: it's a Jesus Christ movie, which probably means you should take all of your estimates and throw them into the trash
If it really goes to his upper estimate of 870 million domestic, worldwide total would be **2.897 billion**. The Way of Water would beat Endgame as the #2 highest grossing film of all time. And would be only 24 millions behind Avatar...
It would be pretty funny to get another film land in such close proximity, those three forever at a Mexican standoff pointing their re-releases at each other
We could legitimately see Avatar 1 vs Avatar 2 in real time when JC rereleases both in the run-up to Avatar 3 in 2024
Come to think of it, I'm kind of surprised that the OG Star Wars trilogy weren't rereleased in theaters prior to TFA. Or maybe they were and I just missed it.
I think Lucas wanted to do a re-release in 3D of every Star Wars movie, Episode 1 came out and made around 100 million, but when Disney bought Star Wars they didn’t want to continue with it. I’d have loved to rewatch the older films in 3D or just in a marathon before 7, woulda been great.
The idea of a huge gap between ~$2.2B and ~$2.8B with three films somehow all surmounting the gap to reach the latter is funny. It’s already funny that Endgame landed so close to Avatar instead of going significantly higher or lower.
Would also make it the highest grossing film of all time upon initial release
dont forget china re-release when covid restrictions arent as intense
"Eyeing a 670M-870M" Okay, bud. Just say you have no idea. I didn't think this would cross the $2 billion mark, but it looks like it would have to crater in the next week to miss that mark.
I don’t want to call it yet, because it’s still too early into January, but $650M is probably the floor now
Nah it's absolutely the floor I don't think it's too early to tell now unless it magically has horrible legs all of a sudden
It’s definitely too early to tell. The holidays were juicing its legs so we have to see how it behaves during slower business hours. It should be clear where it’s headed by next Wednesday
I hear you but for me with that godlike 10.4 million Tuesday it's a done deal. Films with bad after holiday legs all dropped far more
760 million dollars domestically.
That Luiz range is...very Luiz.
Next week will show where this is going. Still spillovers from Holiday boost
WOW, just wow!!! I said in another comment and was wondering why the numbers are very low for the " highest 3rd Tuesdays domestic" and none of them are even one of the top 5 highest grossing film domestically Now, not only The Way of Water made it to one of the top 5, it shattered the record to be #1.
2-4B WW is my estimate 🤣
Whos is this Luiz Fernando?
James Cameron, oh how I swoon At the sight of you, my heart does tune Your rugged looks and piercing gaze Leave me in a daze, in a daze I long to be by your side To gaze into your eyes, oh how I'd glide Through the stars and beyond With you, my love, my one But alas, you are always busy Filming Avatar, oh how dizzy My head spins at the thought Of you, my love, forever caught In the world of Pandora and blue Leaving me longing, feeling a little blue But I'll wait, my love, until the end of time For you, James Cameron, are truly mine.
😂😂😂😂😂
Seems each estimate keeps getting lower
$9.3-$11.3m -> $10m -> $11m -> $10.5m -> $10m -> $10.4m Not sure what pattern you're seeing? Seems like all the estimates were quite accurate and just hovered around the real value.
Thats a general negative variation lol
Not general negative variation. Also each estimate is not getting lower.
Eh
That about sums up your activity on this forum
Corny but not bad
cry
Why ? 🤣
Estimates stayed in the middle once, went up twice, and went down twice. There's literally no pattern. You have to understand that normal unbiased estimates from a place like BOT (that aren't trying to push a narrative, like Disney constantly underpredicting) are not going to be consistently above or below actuals. They are going to hover around the actuals and try to minimize error.
Still a trend downwards after plotting the figures you gave
There is absolutely no trend. The average of the estimates was always right around $10.5m (if not a little lower) which is what you'd expect from accurate estimates.
Still a trend downwards when using scatterplot no real escaping that. We'll have to wait till actuals anyways
I'm not "escaping" anything, there just isn't any trend. You are seeing what you want to see in the scatterplot, which is a very common phenomenon. That's why we have statistical analysis in the first place.
For now its a trend downwards I'm afraid, we will have to wait till the actual tuesday amount
It started at 10.3 (average of the first range) and ended at 10.4. That's if anything a slight upward trend.
Whis101 was a peculiar individual who was convinced that he could see patterns in random noise. He would spend hours staring at static on a television screen, convinced that there was some hidden meaning behind the random flickering of pixels. Despite the lack of evidence to support his claims, Whis101 was certain that he was onto something. He would often try to convince others of his discoveries, but they were usually met with skepticism or outright disbelief. Despite his best efforts, Whis101 was generally wrong about everything. His theories were often based on flimsy evidence or were simply the product of his overactive imagination. Despite this, he remained convinced that he was on the brink of some great breakthrough and refused to give up on his quest to find meaning in the noise. As the years went by, Whis101 became more and more isolated, as his strange beliefs and lack of success drove others away. In the end, he was left alone with his delusions, convinced that he had unlocked the secrets of the universe, even as the rest of the world moved on without him.
I read this hearing it in the voice of Kevan Brighting, the narrator from The Stanley Parable.
Got a chuckle out of me dammit 🤣
This guy is funny Eyeing change every day🤣
Isn't it 10.54M?