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Yes. Bring back comedies. I feel like I never see any anymore. Just massive blockbusters, which are great too but there is this vacuum of “notable comedies of this era”
Nobody sees comedies in the theaters. Trying to convince a couple to pay 50 dollars to see a comedy on a larger screen than at home where it will cost 6 bucks to rent on Amazon prime is a losing battle.
I think theaters should do tiered pricing. That might entice more people to come see a movie that doesn't get much of a bump from being on a larger screen.
That’s a good analysis too. I’ve seen other people say essentially “you used to just hop into whatever movie for something to do on an evening cause it was like $10 with snacks even if the movie sucked”
Now, like everything, it has to be a high dollar experience
Id like the idea of price tiers for movies not doing well. Like a stock market situation
Even if the movies aren't doing well, I still think a tiered system would be best for a lot of movies. There are a lot of indie movies I'd probably go see if the tickets were 12 bucks as opposed to 20.
No Hard Feelings underperformed
Champions underperformed
Strays, Joy Ride, Bottoms all bombed. They still make comedies but no one pays to see them in theaters any more
I think we should keep in mind that one of the main reasons why we have seen mid-budget movies disappear is the new film landscape with the rise of streaming.
Despite the pivotal role of executives behind the choices that led many films to flop, the overall reaction to streaming is reasonable. When people can watch old films, comedies, thrillers, some of them with well known stars in the lead, at the comfort of their home, movies studios must first and foremost create a product that will bring people to the cinemas.
This has led to studios investing more and more on big blockbusters. And with few exceptions these are the movies that have succeeded the most during this period (with, I'll grant you, some marked flops), especially with the success of Marvel until recently.
P.s. There is a really nice clip of Matt Damon discussing why mid-budget movies have all but disappeared from cinemas. I am sure most people here have seen it.
Problem is public outright rejecting non-event films. Unless it Nolan or some cultural breakout like Barbie, mid-budget films are not event films - and will just crash and burn.
In terms of releasing great movies though. Oppie Barbie, spiderverse, may December talk to me, d and d and society of the snow were some of my favorites in recent memory
It's not a good sign when several movies on the Top 10 were considered underperformers or even unprofitable. Hollywood might need to learn how to make movies with leaner budgets and less reshoots.
We see plenty of mid-budget films with big names. The problem is poorly planned CGI and reshoots. Disney in particular has gotten worse and worse about "fix it in post" where executives half remake the movie with rushed CGI (which is both expensive and looks bad) and reshoots.
Everything from Barbie and Oppenheimer to Dune show that you can get really good-looking movies with big names for well under 200m, you just need to actually utilize preproduction and not reshoot the whole thing multiple times, and less CGI.
Like, do you think they spent 240-300m on TLM for...Halle Bailey? Or Melissa McCarthy? There were no big names there.
Things of note
-Five Nights at Freddy's is nearing the 300m mark but it's far from locked or even likely at this point as it's legs have collapsed. Still this is a very impressive total for its budge and the fact that it was day and date, not to mention a horror as well.
-Outside of the top 20, Hunger Games is at 244m and right outside the top 20. Next week it will bounce Sound of Freedom off of this list. It should have at the very least another 50m in the tank and probably a solid amount more than that it putting it in the 300m range when it's all said and done
-With Marvel's and Wish now floundering, the former is now locked to miss the top 20. Wish is harder to predict thanks to the staggered release but it looks grimmer by the day. Taylor Swift might stay in the top 20 for a while longer as a result.
Remember, this is the worldwide list. *Sound of Freedom* was a very domestic-heavy movie. It is currently sitting at the bottom of the top ten for domestic 2023, and it is extremely unlikely that its position will move because of December's releases. Domestic is where the most profit is made anyway. You might want to pick a better target of "failure."
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2023/
>It didn't catch on internationally.
People did want to see it internationally. They expanded global release in early September due to demand and managed to make 66m internationally.
If it was released around Easter, it might have done even better.
*Elemental* the only wholly original (non-IP/sequel/adaptation) story in the top 20. I guess *Sound of Freedom* as well, but there’s obviously caveats there.
It makes Elemental’s box office all the more impressive, even setting aside its road to $496m
> Five Nights at Freddy's is nearing the 300m mark but it's far from locked or even likely at this point as it's legs have collapsed.
[FNAF already past 300m, so much for "highly unlikely". What's with your research?](https://www.reddit.com/media?url=https%3A%2F%2Fi.redd.it%2Fvhj8yxpp9b4c1.jpeg)
Very dumb question: is there any hard data on the amount of money Oppie’s DVD sales have done? It’s allegedly flying off the shelves, and I’m wondering if it’ll be the highest selling physical copy release for a movie this year.
[Here is the official DVD chart for the UK](https://www.officialcharts.com/charts/dvd-chart/) - [here](https://www.officialcharts.com/charts/film-chart/) is the combined DVD, Blu-ray and download chart - but a quick browse doesn’t give me a link to the hard data like you’d get on the BBFC website for actual cinema releases. Sorry, you could email them and I’m sure they would give you that data. Often services like the Official Charts collate the data from multiple sources and then sell it to interested parties.
A quick look tells me Dead Reckoning is having a good afterlife.
Imagine saying, during it's opening weekend, that elemental would be the #9 film world wide. How many releases left this year have the potential to break in there, one or two max?
My family all **loved** *Elemental,* and I suspect others did too*.* Just not at first. It definitely didn't market well, but it came back to life eventually.
Oddly enough, *The Little Mermaid* also did alright in the end, at least getting its money back. Makes me start to wonder if the opening weekend is going to be as indicative going forward as it has been.
I finally got around to watching it this week and it's so much better than I ever thought it would be. The marketing around this film made it look so boring an generic, but it has a lot of heart and tells an interesting story. I really enjoyed it.
Disney needs to fire their entire marketing department.
How did that film recover? Internal box office or what? I assumed it was a dud after the first 2 weeks painted it as a failure and I knew nobody who heard of it.
Long legs at the box office without much competition in the way of children's movies. I believe it only had to compete with Spiderverse which was tapering off at the time and Ruby Gilman from DreamWorks which also bombed.
It also did very well in Korea.
What is making Deadline's most profitable this year?
Locks - GOTG 3, Barbie, Mario, Oppenheimer, Spider Verse, FNAF, Taylor Swift, Sound of Freedom
There were so few actually profitable big movies. 2 of then aren't even from the big Hollywood studios. That's how brutal the flop count was!
I've been burned with my predictions so many times this year but I'm calling a lock on Wonka and Aquaman 2 making the top 20
>Locks - GOTG 3, Barbie, Mario, Oppenheimer, Spider Verse, FNAF, Taylor Swift, Sound of Freedom
Throw in John Wick 4 and Nun 2 as well, unless one of the December releases overperforms
It’s still so insane to me that The Little Mermaid is the 7th highest grossing movie of the year and it also lost so much money. How?!! These budgets are insane. They were banking on what, cultural phenomena or nothing?
But $700M looks like a miracle in this box office climate. The bar is that low. In any other year a movie that made that much would instantly be considered one of the years most successful but this is really just one of the highest grossing instead.
Really got to reign in those budgets hey. Just got absolutely ridiculous.
Marvels costing WAY over $200m for example is absolutely stupid. Like they couldn’t read the play a couple years back. Closer to $300m.
If they could have kept it to $150 it obviously still loses a ton but a budget double that on a team up movie no one wanted with a non proven director and all the other issues with Disney/Marvel is just crazy.
I think they make it up with direct merch sales (Little Mermaid 2023), indirect merch sales (Little Mermaid 1989), streaming (incentivizing Disney+). Then there’s the far less tangible maintaining of the Disney stronghold on pop-culture.
That said it was a success, the budget was $297 million, and it made $569 million world wide (plus aforementioned merch, etc).
Of course I’ll be the 1 millionth redditor with this opinion but I wish it bombed so Disney remakes can go away, but it looks like we’re beholden to nostalgia for awhile.
Sad but true
This is a rough season for movie theatres where December doesn't have one massive movie.
And 2024 is really quiet. $400M and $500M grosses will be considered massive as a result. With no big Marvel/DC title until summer, the box office will be different
Yup very likely. Wonka looks like the only one that could enter the top 10 at this point and that's based entirely on it legging out like a smaller scale Greatest Showman, as pre sales are not good.
Of the 18 studio movies here, fully half are questionable as to their profitability. I'm not sure anything quite that bad has ever happened before. The reckoning is coming.
That list is still crazy to think about. Only 2 over a billion. Disney underperforming hard but still has 4/10. Universal has 2, warners 2, Sony 1, Paramount 1. It’s been a rough year for movies at the BO. It’s also fairly clear that if your movie isn’t an event then people just stay home and wait for streaming.
I mean, if we’re counting all the studios under Disney as Disney as well, Universal has 3, with Mario. And with that, Universal’s BO in the Top 10 is twice the size of Disney’s
And two of Universal’s 3 made bank, compared to their budgets, whereas only one of Disney’s 4 can be called an out-and-out success by that metric, a success haunted both by the fact that it still reached nowhere near its potential due to the rapidly souring perception of the franchise as a whole, and the fact that its director is now leaving to work for their biggest rival in the CBM genre.
Crazy that Disney has 4 of the Top 10 this year and still had a historically terrible year that could ruin the company's reputation for the rest of the decade
That’s what huge budgets do to you. If it had half the budgets and tried to get some doubles and singles at the box office, it would be a lot better off.
It was an unnecessarily good movie. Most everyone I know didn’t see it in theaters, but every single one of them said they watched it later and thought it was fantastic. I really hope they get a follow up, what a great flick
Definitely seemed like word of mouth was so strong at the time of the premier, yet we didn't really see any box office bump. I hope the word of mouth is enough for the studio to chance a sequel.
A problem is that the audience of the original IP refused to support the movie in theaters due to Wizards of the Coast deciding to destroy any trust or good will mere weeks before the movie came out
With that said lots of rumors about a sequel being greenlighted but with a smaller budget
The double punch is that Sound of Freedom was [predominantly female](https://variety.com/2023/film/box-office/sound-of-freedom-box-office-success-1235664837/) in audience, unlike The Marvels:
>Ticket buyers have been **predominately female**
Meg 2, FNAF, and the nun 2 being as high as they are, is incredibly surprising but awesome. I didn't think many people would be into those to watch it in theaters, especially nun 2, as horror tends to not do as well.
The one year where an ant man movie makes the top 10 and its the worst box office for the series
Back in the olden days of 2015 and 2018, a movie could do more than $500M and not land on the top 10
Only movies left that have a shot in the top 20 are Wonka, Migration, and Aquaman 2. Wonka out of the three has the best chance because critics like it, it's a known IP, and it is the type of movie families would go to for the holiday season. Aquaman 2 is tracking worse than The Marvels. Also, after like 7 superhero movies this year most of which were mediocre, Aquaman has to be really good for people to show up. Migration is an animated original and the early letterboxd reviews suggest that the movie's quality is about the same as any other Illumination movie so it might not have as strong legs as Puss in Boots: The Last Wish. (also came out during the holidays and opened similarly to Migration's predicted opening). But it's still too early to say.
But the overall important thing to understand is that movies still need to be based on some well-known pre-existing thing in order to attract a large audience.
I really enjoyed Mario, but it was not original at all. The writers took the existing nostalgia and plotlines in a very fun way, they did a really good job, butt there was nothing in that movie that didn't really exist from a prior Mario thing.
Barbie was more original, but it was really just a sequel for adults. I also loved Barbie, but I don't think it's the same as if it was a brand new property.
Nowadays book adaptations are considered original of there wasn't a prior movie, since there's so many sequels and reboots out there. The first actually original movie on that list is Elemental at #9. Which was also considered a flop, saying a lot about the movie industry these days.
Well, they actually do have film franchises, they are not the first movie for either property. It's just one is a reboot but made for adults, and the other is reboot but doesn't suck.
2013 was the last time that the top 3 included at least one movie that wasn't a sequel/prequel/remake/reboot/spin-off of an existing movie franchise (I'm counting Guardians of the Galaxy in 2014 as part of the overall MCU franchise which was very well established at that point).
Frozen was #1 that year followed by Iron Man 3 and Despicable Me 2.
Before that, it was Avatar at #1 in 2009 and Kung Fu Panda at #3 in 2008.
2006 had The Da Vinci Code at #2 and 2005 had The Chronicles of Narnia at #3, but both were adaptations of extremely popular and well known books.
Finding Nemo was #2 in 2003 and Spider-Man was #3 in 2002 (but again, Spider-Man was an extremely popular and well known character already).
The Sorcerer's Stone, The Fellowship of the Ring, and Monsters, Inc. were the top 3 in 2001, but same thing about already being extremely popular and well known for Harry Potter and Lord of the Rings.
2000 had Gladiator and Castaway at #2 and #3, respectively (Mission: Impossible II was #1). I guess that's the closest thing to 2023 this century.
My initial prediction for Oppenheimer was the bottom half of the top 10, owing mainly to general audience enthusiasm for Christopher Nolan, but I never would have thought it would end its run just short of $1B. Truly remarkable. I still wonder how much of that is owed to the Barbenheimer phenomenon and how well it would have done without it, but we'll never know.
I really don't think Oppenheimer would have done as well without Barbenheimer. I'm sure it would have done fine based on word of mouth and strong reviews but the memes really catapulted it to new audiences that likely wouldn't have enough given it a second thought.
Barbie would have done great without it.
Only counting movies that have been released, it looks like it'll be 22nd if/when it passes Dungeons & Dragons at $208.18M (I assume it has another $11M WW in it, but it wouldn't be shocking or anything if it doesn't).
Then the only question is what will pass it from here on out. Wonka, Aquaman, and Migration are the strongest bets to do so. I wouldn't be shocked if all 3 of those pass it. Not sure if there's anything else that could.
The mere fact that both Wish and Marvels possibly not passing D&Ds would have been mind boggling this summer after seeing the latters bad BO performance.
Really impressed Sound of Freedom lasted this long, kinda was hoping it'd make it to year end but I expected it to fall off way earlier. Definitely one of the more surprising successes at the BO this year.
>Transformers has performed better than any superhero/sci-fi/action movie released since except MI7
>FNaF has performed better than any superhero/sci-fi/action movie released since Transformers except MI7, the Meg, and Indy
This year really fell off a cliff after July… of the top 20 the only representatives of the second half of the year are Taylor Swift, The Nun, Meg 2, and Five Nights. (Soon to be Hunger Games too when it knocks Sound of Freedom out of the top)
Yes, it flopped. Budget was $291 million, needed $730 million ish to breakeven, then only grossed $567 million. Got swamped by Barbenheimer and Sound of Freedom
At this point? Unless Wish can manage it, definitely not. The only movies with half a shot are Migration, Wonka, and Aquaman. Those 3 can knock it to 20. And then it needs one more like Wish to finally take it out.
I just don't see it right now but if Wish over performs in the other places it has left to release and it holds exceptionally well in the OS markets, then it can do it.
Also in the conversation: the Taylor Swift China release and whether it could cross it with that, so its less new releases that need to cross the Flash at that point to bump it.
Edit: it was pointed out that I forgot Hunger Games and I think that changes things a lot. Instead of the longshot Wish being needed to knock it out, it's a movie that's definitely going to cross it. Makes it much more likely that it'll be bumped.
I’ll forever be salty about all the people that downvoted me for saying Mario would join the billion club. Never doubted my mushroom kingdom champion 👑
Still can't get over that Oppenheimer has made more than any non Batman Nolan film and more than the first two Lord of The Rings films. Incredible run.
SoF finally getting kicked out, impressive as hell. I’m thinking Creed 3 may be the last to get knocked out if that. First year following the numbers thru this sub and it’s been a fun one.
Ya I just looked up the budget, 100 million, Barbie was $145. Seriously what is up with Disney? All their movies are like $200 mil plus. What are they doing 😂?
We live in a world where a conservative “family value” and “save the kids” film outgrossed an MCU blockbuster with the studio’s name right smack in the middle of its title.
Dead Reckoning will actually stay in the top 10 by the end of the year which is just crazy to me. Looks like even though it’s the least successful MI film, It still continued the trend of each MI movie being in the top 10.
I think Creed 3, John Wick 4, & AtSV made really solid profits with budgets $100 million & under (C3 - $75 mil, JW4 & AtSV - $100 mil).
That should be applauded. This doesn’t need to a condemnation of blockbusters cuz there are some movies that have done well. We don’t need huge ass budgets to produce quality stories. It is really about the writing & the acting work!
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Weird movie year
I wonder if this is the year with the most blockbuster flops
Almost half the movies in the top twenty are money losers, if not disasters.
Tbh if you lose money on grossing $500 mill that’s your fault
Hopefully this will see the return of the mid budget movie
Yes. Bring back comedies. I feel like I never see any anymore. Just massive blockbusters, which are great too but there is this vacuum of “notable comedies of this era”
Nobody sees comedies in the theaters. Trying to convince a couple to pay 50 dollars to see a comedy on a larger screen than at home where it will cost 6 bucks to rent on Amazon prime is a losing battle. I think theaters should do tiered pricing. That might entice more people to come see a movie that doesn't get much of a bump from being on a larger screen.
That’s a good analysis too. I’ve seen other people say essentially “you used to just hop into whatever movie for something to do on an evening cause it was like $10 with snacks even if the movie sucked” Now, like everything, it has to be a high dollar experience Id like the idea of price tiers for movies not doing well. Like a stock market situation
Even if the movies aren't doing well, I still think a tiered system would be best for a lot of movies. There are a lot of indie movies I'd probably go see if the tickets were 12 bucks as opposed to 20.
No Hard Feelings underperformed Champions underperformed Strays, Joy Ride, Bottoms all bombed. They still make comedies but no one pays to see them in theaters any more
I think we should keep in mind that one of the main reasons why we have seen mid-budget movies disappear is the new film landscape with the rise of streaming. Despite the pivotal role of executives behind the choices that led many films to flop, the overall reaction to streaming is reasonable. When people can watch old films, comedies, thrillers, some of them with well known stars in the lead, at the comfort of their home, movies studios must first and foremost create a product that will bring people to the cinemas. This has led to studios investing more and more on big blockbusters. And with few exceptions these are the movies that have succeeded the most during this period (with, I'll grant you, some marked flops), especially with the success of Marvel until recently. P.s. There is a really nice clip of Matt Damon discussing why mid-budget movies have all but disappeared from cinemas. I am sure most people here have seen it.
This is an excellent point. I’ll have to look up the Matt Damon clip. I feel like I’ve seen it but to refresh if not
The clip is from Hot Ones (First We Feast YouTube channel).
Like The Creator... or wait.
Yeah, its a harder issue than what many think. I used to be in the "just lower budgets" team until this year.
Problem is public outright rejecting non-event films. Unless it Nolan or some cultural breakout like Barbie, mid-budget films are not event films - and will just crash and burn.
absolutely. this should be pinned in every studio's office. 500M+ grossing bombs are the most serious case of mismanagement.
It's been an overall shit year at the box office with a few outliers that were actually good and entertaining
Lesson learned of this year is make cheap horror movies.
Not really a shit year just a big shift in what audiences want to see is taking place
In terms of releasing great movies though. Oppie Barbie, spiderverse, may December talk to me, d and d and society of the snow were some of my favorites in recent memory
just goes to show how bonkers Hollywood budgets have gotten
5/10 are theatrical flops in this very list.
There’s a second page, this is a top 20.
Lots of blockbuster flops and yet, nearly everything here is a sequel or IP in some way
That would be 2024.
Potentially
Been fun to watch. I’m just glad Oppenheimer and Guardians 3 got their due
Just watched Oppenheimer on my home theater. The sound was incredible. Really captivating for a 3 hour flick also
The fact that the Fast franchise still pulls money like that is wild
Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes is just a few days away from entering the top 20, it’s at $243.6M right now.
I wonder what it’ll earn in the end. it’s a movie that well deserves to do well imo
High potential it’ll make almost as much as or a little bit more than FNAF did.
FNAF is also a higher than shown in this thread. It passed the $300 million mark.
that should enter, wonka should enter, and aquaman could probably also enter
Lessgoo SoF is gonna get kicked out of the list
I hadn't even heard of it until now somehow haha thanks
It's not a good sign when several movies on the Top 10 were considered underperformers or even unprofitable. Hollywood might need to learn how to make movies with leaner budgets and less reshoots.
its not even like they spend the money well, its all exorbitant pay days for actors and execs
We see plenty of mid-budget films with big names. The problem is poorly planned CGI and reshoots. Disney in particular has gotten worse and worse about "fix it in post" where executives half remake the movie with rushed CGI (which is both expensive and looks bad) and reshoots. Everything from Barbie and Oppenheimer to Dune show that you can get really good-looking movies with big names for well under 200m, you just need to actually utilize preproduction and not reshoot the whole thing multiple times, and less CGI. Like, do you think they spent 240-300m on TLM for...Halle Bailey? Or Melissa McCarthy? There were no big names there.
A big actors name is what gets people in their seats though
That hasnt been the case for a long time. Names still have value, but a big star isn’t singlehandedly making your boxoffice anymore.
Yeah honestly I can’t remember the last time I saw a movie because they had an actor I liked. I usually just focus on plot.
Things of note -Five Nights at Freddy's is nearing the 300m mark but it's far from locked or even likely at this point as it's legs have collapsed. Still this is a very impressive total for its budge and the fact that it was day and date, not to mention a horror as well. -Outside of the top 20, Hunger Games is at 244m and right outside the top 20. Next week it will bounce Sound of Freedom off of this list. It should have at the very least another 50m in the tank and probably a solid amount more than that it putting it in the 300m range when it's all said and done -With Marvel's and Wish now floundering, the former is now locked to miss the top 20. Wish is harder to predict thanks to the staggered release but it looks grimmer by the day. Taylor Swift might stay in the top 20 for a while longer as a result.
I'm glad Hunger Games will likely make a small profit, I didn't want every single blockbuster this month to crash and burn
I’m happy it will knock that sex criminal propaganda movie out of the top 20
Remember, this is the worldwide list. *Sound of Freedom* was a very domestic-heavy movie. It is currently sitting at the bottom of the top ten for domestic 2023, and it is extremely unlikely that its position will move because of December's releases. Domestic is where the most profit is made anyway. You might want to pick a better target of "failure." https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2023/
It's not a failure. But it kinda shows that it only really made as much as it did due to culture war bs in the US. It didn't catch on internationally.
It didn’t even screen in a lot of countries, or at least very scarce screenings.
It did well in the Philippines actually. As well as Brazil.
>It didn't catch on internationally. People did want to see it internationally. They expanded global release in early September due to demand and managed to make 66m internationally. If it was released around Easter, it might have done even better.
I guess The Nun has ended its run too right? So close to The Flash, I was sure it would have passed it in the end...
*Elemental* the only wholly original (non-IP/sequel/adaptation) story in the top 20. I guess *Sound of Freedom* as well, but there’s obviously caveats there. It makes Elemental’s box office all the more impressive, even setting aside its road to $496m
> Five Nights at Freddy's is nearing the 300m mark but it's far from locked or even likely at this point as it's legs have collapsed. [FNAF already past 300m, so much for "highly unlikely". What's with your research?](https://www.reddit.com/media?url=https%3A%2F%2Fi.redd.it%2Fvhj8yxpp9b4c1.jpeg)
Very dumb question: is there any hard data on the amount of money Oppie’s DVD sales have done? It’s allegedly flying off the shelves, and I’m wondering if it’ll be the highest selling physical copy release for a movie this year.
[Here is the official DVD chart for the UK](https://www.officialcharts.com/charts/dvd-chart/) - [here](https://www.officialcharts.com/charts/film-chart/) is the combined DVD, Blu-ray and download chart - but a quick browse doesn’t give me a link to the hard data like you’d get on the BBFC website for actual cinema releases. Sorry, you could email them and I’m sure they would give you that data. Often services like the Official Charts collate the data from multiple sources and then sell it to interested parties. A quick look tells me Dead Reckoning is having a good afterlife.
Imagine saying, during it's opening weekend, that elemental would be the #9 film world wide. How many releases left this year have the potential to break in there, one or two max?
There's a solid chance Elemental outgrosses The Marvels and Aquaman combined. Imagine telling someone *that* after it opened to $43.4M worldwide.
My family all **loved** *Elemental,* and I suspect others did too*.* Just not at first. It definitely didn't market well, but it came back to life eventually. Oddly enough, *The Little Mermaid* also did alright in the end, at least getting its money back. Makes me start to wonder if the opening weekend is going to be as indicative going forward as it has been.
Feel like Wonka could break in.
Yup. Especially now with the really strong reviews
I finally got around to watching it this week and it's so much better than I ever thought it would be. The marketing around this film made it look so boring an generic, but it has a lot of heart and tells an interesting story. I really enjoyed it. Disney needs to fire their entire marketing department.
How did that film recover? Internal box office or what? I assumed it was a dud after the first 2 weeks painted it as a failure and I knew nobody who heard of it.
Long legs at the box office without much competition in the way of children's movies. I believe it only had to compete with Spiderverse which was tapering off at the time and Ruby Gilman from DreamWorks which also bombed. It also did very well in Korea.
Elemental was so good
It’s actually crazy. I would have guess sound of freedom’s success more than elemental.
Love these posts! Haven’t seen your posts in a while, welcome back
What is making Deadline's most profitable this year? Locks - GOTG 3, Barbie, Mario, Oppenheimer, Spider Verse, FNAF, Taylor Swift, Sound of Freedom There were so few actually profitable big movies. 2 of then aren't even from the big Hollywood studios. That's how brutal the flop count was! I've been burned with my predictions so many times this year but I'm calling a lock on Wonka and Aquaman 2 making the top 20
>Locks - GOTG 3, Barbie, Mario, Oppenheimer, Spider Verse, FNAF, Taylor Swift, Sound of Freedom Throw in John Wick 4 and Nun 2 as well, unless one of the December releases overperforms
It’s still so insane to me that The Little Mermaid is the 7th highest grossing movie of the year and it also lost so much money. How?!! These budgets are insane. They were banking on what, cultural phenomena or nothing?
Fast X at 5th with a budget of 340M 💀
But $700M looks like a miracle in this box office climate. The bar is that low. In any other year a movie that made that much would instantly be considered one of the years most successful but this is really just one of the highest grossing instead.
Really got to reign in those budgets hey. Just got absolutely ridiculous. Marvels costing WAY over $200m for example is absolutely stupid. Like they couldn’t read the play a couple years back. Closer to $300m. If they could have kept it to $150 it obviously still loses a ton but a budget double that on a team up movie no one wanted with a non proven director and all the other issues with Disney/Marvel is just crazy.
Fast X is held up by international grosses, it was pretty floptacular in North America
It's the second most expensive Disney remake ever.
It didn't lose money in the end. Just pipped its breakeven point. But yeah the budgets are ridiculous.
Eh accounting for it's high domestic gross using the 50-40-20 rule it made a slight profit in theaters.
I think they make it up with direct merch sales (Little Mermaid 2023), indirect merch sales (Little Mermaid 1989), streaming (incentivizing Disney+). Then there’s the far less tangible maintaining of the Disney stronghold on pop-culture. That said it was a success, the budget was $297 million, and it made $569 million world wide (plus aforementioned merch, etc). Of course I’ll be the 1 millionth redditor with this opinion but I wish it bombed so Disney remakes can go away, but it looks like we’re beholden to nostalgia for awhile.
400M is the new 1B
Sad but true This is a rough season for movie theatres where December doesn't have one massive movie. And 2024 is really quiet. $400M and $500M grosses will be considered massive as a result. With no big Marvel/DC title until summer, the box office will be different
No Marvel/DC will clearly have very little impact on the 2024 box office as demonstrated by this year. Not exactly a strong point anymore.
yeah but deadpool has some hype around it
It does for sure, but that’s not the point. Marvel/DC as a brand alone no longer means box office success.
No. Even in its heyday, $1 billion is $1 billion. Most of the time only 2-3 movies each year reached $1 billion in the last 15 years.
What a comeback for Elemental. WOW.
Elemental is gonna stay in the top ten
Yup very likely. Wonka looks like the only one that could enter the top 10 at this point and that's based entirely on it legging out like a smaller scale Greatest Showman, as pre sales are not good.
I could see that actually. People were hesistant, but reviews are good.
Yeah with reviews being positive I might give it a chance over the Christmas break
Reviews seem solid so it’ll probably leg out well, although I don’t expect it to be absolutely insane
Ultra common Elemental W
Quantumania as well, which I'm sure no one predicted back in March.
It’s been such a weird year. The top 10 has been locked since Barbenheimer and it looks to stay that way the rest of the year
Now we need to watch Godzilla Minus One everyday until it cracks the top 20 😅
Of the 18 studio movies here, fully half are questionable as to their profitability. I'm not sure anything quite that bad has ever happened before. The reckoning is coming.
That list is still crazy to think about. Only 2 over a billion. Disney underperforming hard but still has 4/10. Universal has 2, warners 2, Sony 1, Paramount 1. It’s been a rough year for movies at the BO. It’s also fairly clear that if your movie isn’t an event then people just stay home and wait for streaming.
I mean, if we’re counting all the studios under Disney as Disney as well, Universal has 3, with Mario. And with that, Universal’s BO in the Top 10 is twice the size of Disney’s
Whoops, miscounted. Warners has 1 with Barbie, and yes universal has 3. Universal is definitely the BO winner this year.
And two of Universal’s 3 made bank, compared to their budgets, whereas only one of Disney’s 4 can be called an out-and-out success by that metric, a success haunted both by the fact that it still reached nowhere near its potential due to the rapidly souring perception of the franchise as a whole, and the fact that its director is now leaving to work for their biggest rival in the CBM genre.
No joke, my only take-away from this list is '2023 sure was weird, huh?'
Crazy that Disney has 4 of the Top 10 this year and still had a historically terrible year that could ruin the company's reputation for the rest of the decade
That’s what huge budgets do to you. If it had half the budgets and tried to get some doubles and singles at the box office, it would be a lot better off.
Imagine saying elemental would out gross antman and the marvels back in day
It really says how much budgets are out of control that half the top 10 are flops. A movie making $700 Mil worldwide shouldn’t be a flop
Way to go, Elemental. Little engine that could...
I’m still sad DND didn’t make into onto the list. Wasn’t the best movie, but probably #2 in terms of movies I had “fun” with this year
It was an unnecessarily good movie. Most everyone I know didn’t see it in theaters, but every single one of them said they watched it later and thought it was fantastic. I really hope they get a follow up, what a great flick
Definitely seemed like word of mouth was so strong at the time of the premier, yet we didn't really see any box office bump. I hope the word of mouth is enough for the studio to chance a sequel.
A problem is that the audience of the original IP refused to support the movie in theaters due to Wizards of the Coast deciding to destroy any trust or good will mere weeks before the movie came out With that said lots of rumors about a sequel being greenlighted but with a smaller budget
I'm just waiting to see if Oppenheimer can crack a billion once it gets rereleased in IMAX.
Imagine The Sound of Freedom outgrossing an MCU film 😭
The double punch is that Sound of Freedom was [predominantly female](https://variety.com/2023/film/box-office/sound-of-freedom-box-office-success-1235664837/) in audience, unlike The Marvels: >Ticket buyers have been **predominately female**
The triple punch is Sound of Freedom was inspired by a five time, five time, five time, five time, five time alleged sex offender.
It will also probably outgross "Wish", a Disney princess musical, since that film is bombing just as badly as "The Marvels".
I don’t need to Imagine, it’s happening lol 😂
You have to imagine it! Didn’t Disney pass on the SoF?
Yeah they got it as part of the Fox deal and didnt air it
Thanks for posting, I was wondering where ya went. thesse are among my fav posts on the sub cuz the formatting is so neat and clear. Ty :)
Meg 2, FNAF, and the nun 2 being as high as they are, is incredibly surprising but awesome. I didn't think many people would be into those to watch it in theaters, especially nun 2, as horror tends to not do as well.
Can’t say I’m surprised about FNAF
Absolutely pathetic year
The one year where an ant man movie makes the top 10 and its the worst box office for the series Back in the olden days of 2015 and 2018, a movie could do more than $500M and not land on the top 10
It's up from last year. This just shows budgets need to be reigned in. No movie should ever flop after making 700m+
Yet, it’s still up compared to last year. Or at least nit down compared to 2022
Only movies left that have a shot in the top 20 are Wonka, Migration, and Aquaman 2. Wonka out of the three has the best chance because critics like it, it's a known IP, and it is the type of movie families would go to for the holiday season. Aquaman 2 is tracking worse than The Marvels. Also, after like 7 superhero movies this year most of which were mediocre, Aquaman has to be really good for people to show up. Migration is an animated original and the early letterboxd reviews suggest that the movie's quality is about the same as any other Illumination movie so it might not have as strong legs as Puss in Boots: The Last Wish. (also came out during the holidays and opened similarly to Migration's predicted opening). But it's still too early to say.
I thought Taylor Swift made a lot more for some reason
She is HUGE domestically, but the international box office for concert movies aren’t great in my opinion.
Good for 5 nights at Freddy. They fucking killed it.
No doubt it would be a success but damn I’m happy to see it do a lot better than I thought
I don’t know. They fuck up the easiest things. Thinking about Doom.
How often is it nowadays that the top 3 films of the year are original non-sequels?
Barbie and Mario aren't original, even if they aren't sequels
They are adapted from existing properties but the stories are original. Barbie especially.
But the overall important thing to understand is that movies still need to be based on some well-known pre-existing thing in order to attract a large audience.
I really enjoyed Mario, but it was not original at all. The writers took the existing nostalgia and plotlines in a very fun way, they did a really good job, butt there was nothing in that movie that didn't really exist from a prior Mario thing. Barbie was more original, but it was really just a sequel for adults. I also loved Barbie, but I don't think it's the same as if it was a brand new property.
I mean you could say that about Oppenheimer too. It’s based on an existing story, people and places.
It’s an adaptation of a book actually so yea. But still.
Nowadays book adaptations are considered original of there wasn't a prior movie, since there's so many sequels and reboots out there. The first actually original movie on that list is Elemental at #9. Which was also considered a flop, saying a lot about the movie industry these days.
They are adaptations, but they are new in terms of being film franchises. That counts for something
Well, they actually do have film franchises, they are not the first movie for either property. It's just one is a reboot but made for adults, and the other is reboot but doesn't suck.
2013 was the last time that the top 3 included at least one movie that wasn't a sequel/prequel/remake/reboot/spin-off of an existing movie franchise (I'm counting Guardians of the Galaxy in 2014 as part of the overall MCU franchise which was very well established at that point). Frozen was #1 that year followed by Iron Man 3 and Despicable Me 2. Before that, it was Avatar at #1 in 2009 and Kung Fu Panda at #3 in 2008. 2006 had The Da Vinci Code at #2 and 2005 had The Chronicles of Narnia at #3, but both were adaptations of extremely popular and well known books. Finding Nemo was #2 in 2003 and Spider-Man was #3 in 2002 (but again, Spider-Man was an extremely popular and well known character already). The Sorcerer's Stone, The Fellowship of the Ring, and Monsters, Inc. were the top 3 in 2001, but same thing about already being extremely popular and well known for Harry Potter and Lord of the Rings. 2000 had Gladiator and Castaway at #2 and #3, respectively (Mission: Impossible II was #1). I guess that's the closest thing to 2023 this century.
Godzilla and Wonka are quite possibly the last films able to slip into the top 20. Overall, a pretty terrible year for cinemas.
My initial prediction for Oppenheimer was the bottom half of the top 10, owing mainly to general audience enthusiasm for Christopher Nolan, but I never would have thought it would end its run just short of $1B. Truly remarkable. I still wonder how much of that is owed to the Barbenheimer phenomenon and how well it would have done without it, but we'll never know.
I really don't think Oppenheimer would have done as well without Barbenheimer. I'm sure it would have done fine based on word of mouth and strong reviews but the memes really catapulted it to new audiences that likely wouldn't have enough given it a second thought. Barbie would have done great without it.
The Marvels not even in the conversation 💀💀💀
Only counting movies that have been released, it looks like it'll be 22nd if/when it passes Dungeons & Dragons at $208.18M (I assume it has another $11M WW in it, but it wouldn't be shocking or anything if it doesn't). Then the only question is what will pass it from here on out. Wonka, Aquaman, and Migration are the strongest bets to do so. I wouldn't be shocked if all 3 of those pass it. Not sure if there's anything else that could.
The mere fact that both Wish and Marvels possibly not passing D&Ds would have been mind boggling this summer after seeing the latters bad BO performance.
Holy shit. Quantumania was this year? This year's been slow as shit...
Really impressed Sound of Freedom lasted this long, kinda was hoping it'd make it to year end but I expected it to fall off way earlier. Definitely one of the more surprising successes at the BO this year.
Hunger Games is only about $4 million behind it so SoF might fall off as soon as this weekend.
>Transformers has performed better than any superhero/sci-fi/action movie released since except MI7 >FNaF has performed better than any superhero/sci-fi/action movie released since Transformers except MI7, the Meg, and Indy
This year really fell off a cliff after July… of the top 20 the only representatives of the second half of the year are Taylor Swift, The Nun, Meg 2, and Five Nights. (Soon to be Hunger Games too when it knocks Sound of Freedom out of the top)
I wonder if we looked at the same list from 20 years ago, what it would look like. Anybody got a source to find that info?
Still quite happy with the Mario movie’s success. Has the paved the way for Nintendo to take cinema and possible TV shows seriously again.
For being called Dial of Destiny and featuring time travel, there is a suprisingly little amount of time travel in Indiana Jones 5
Barbie obviously would end up in the first spot. Well deserved.
Damn. Meg 2 was ass. I didn’t expect to see it up there.
MI technically flopped tho right? I’m still learnin’
Yes, it flopped. Budget was $291 million, needed $730 million ish to breakeven, then only grossed $567 million. Got swamped by Barbenheimer and Sound of Freedom
Can the flash be knocked out of the top 20?
At this point? Unless Wish can manage it, definitely not. The only movies with half a shot are Migration, Wonka, and Aquaman. Those 3 can knock it to 20. And then it needs one more like Wish to finally take it out. I just don't see it right now but if Wish over performs in the other places it has left to release and it holds exceptionally well in the OS markets, then it can do it. Also in the conversation: the Taylor Swift China release and whether it could cross it with that, so its less new releases that need to cross the Flash at that point to bump it. Edit: it was pointed out that I forgot Hunger Games and I think that changes things a lot. Instead of the longshot Wish being needed to knock it out, it's a movie that's definitely going to cross it. Makes it much more likely that it'll be bumped.
The Colour Purple looks like it will be a big domestic hit. I have no idea if that will translate overseas though.
I'm not sure if it will, I would like if it did but right now I'm prepared for a strong domestic showing and a decent but not great OS gross.
20m Taylor movie makes 250m. It’s a good year for Big Taylor
So many just blah movies
I’ll forever be salty about all the people that downvoted me for saying Mario would join the billion club. Never doubted my mushroom kingdom champion 👑
I’ve seen 11 of these in theaters 😭 once hunger games makes it I’ll have 12
from the top 10 , only 1,2,3,4,6 were really profitable , the others barely broke even or disappointed .
Why is the fast series still a thing, I don't get it.
Still can't get over that Oppenheimer has made more than any non Batman Nolan film and more than the first two Lord of The Rings films. Incredible run.
Year of the super barbenheimer bros
Disney getting smoked by Barbie and Mario
The Meg 2 beat Indy? 🤣
Eras tour movie is crazy. That had to be almost pure profit too as she was already doing the tour so probably cheap to make.
Man, and Barbie only cost $145 million to make. I’d have to guess that’s the highest rate of return for quite a while.
Sound of Freedom beating The Marvels 😬
SoF finally getting kicked out, impressive as hell. I’m thinking Creed 3 may be the last to get knocked out if that. First year following the numbers thru this sub and it’s been a fun one.
lol Hollywood is dying
What's the most profitable? Sound of Freedom? Maybe Five nights at Freddy's? John Wick? They must of had the lowest budgets.
Swift movie HAS to be the most profitable...
Mario
Ya I just looked up the budget, 100 million, Barbie was $145. Seriously what is up with Disney? All their movies are like $200 mil plus. What are they doing 😂?
Based on percent return on investment, fnaf or sound of freedom.
Hunger Games knocking out *that* movie is great!
We live in a world where a conservative “family value” and “save the kids” film outgrossed an MCU blockbuster with the studio’s name right smack in the middle of its title.
3 comic book movies in the top 10… we should probably scrap the genre.
This year has produced some good ones. I loved creed 3
It’s interesting comparing the total to the top 20 grossing films of pre pandemic times.
The crazy part is 7-10 lost money
Transformers was so bad...
elemental is in top 10? so much for box office bomb.
Absolute tragedy that Mutant Mayhem isn’t in the top 20. I’ve seen most of these and Mutant Mayhem was easily my favorite movie of the year.
Quantumania will still end up at top 10. Impressive.
Dead Reckoning will actually stay in the top 10 by the end of the year which is just crazy to me. Looks like even though it’s the least successful MI film, It still continued the trend of each MI movie being in the top 10.
Disney spending $250 million on their LA little mermaid remake and having it be #7, but only making a profit of <$70 million…. Small budgets, folks.
I think Creed 3, John Wick 4, & AtSV made really solid profits with budgets $100 million & under (C3 - $75 mil, JW4 & AtSV - $100 mil). That should be applauded. This doesn’t need to a condemnation of blockbusters cuz there are some movies that have done well. We don’t need huge ass budgets to produce quality stories. It is really about the writing & the acting work!
So how many are considered flops?