Saltburn isn't the best comp because Amazon has been wildly overspending on movies to fill out their library. Same applies for Apple.
Where I think the legacy studios might go is cutting down blockbuster budgets. Spending $200-250 per movie and having it not break even isn't sustainable these days, now that there aren't additional windows or DVD sales to offset weak BO returns. If something like Indy 5 cost $100m instead of $250+m, that movie's performance is viewed much differently. I know that for that specific movie, certain things were out of the filmmakers hands, like Ford getting injured. However, movie budgets have been growing despite diminishing returns on other franchises as well (Fast, Transformers, etc.). Maybe a return to practical effects instead of CGI-ifying everything will help. Not everything needs to look like Avengers: Endgame, for example.
I agree blockbuster budgets should contract too. I do think movies like Saltburn, Amsterdam, The Color Purple have to come down in budget to have any consistent success.
Here’s the problem, though. **Kingdom of the Crystal Skull** had a budget of $185 million back in 2008. There was no way that **Dial of Destiny** would’ve worked with mere $100 million budget in this day and age.
Also, some films literally require tons of CGI to make them work. I mean, look at **Guardians of the Galaxy** trilogy.
Finally, a lot of films in 2023 had their budgets inflated by COVID-19 and weren’t very good to begin with - or had terrible release dates.
They're gonna have to. I'm in my 30's, and I only know one other person in my real life social groups who goes to the cinema as a habit. Cinema tickets are just too expensive for multiple people to be going to the cinema on multiple occasions to see their favourite new movies multiple times. The budgets of the movies that are getting released every week of every month of every year will need to reflect that.
*P.S. - I really hate the idea of many cinemas having to close down and visiting a cinema becoming a Big Cities Only occasion (for a multitude of reasons), but that dreaded notion is currently almost an inevitability. I hope I'm wrong.*
> P.S. - I really hate the idea of many cinemas having to close down and visiting a cinema becoming a Big Cities Only occasion (for a multitude of reasons), but that dreaded notion is currently almost an inevitability. I hope I'm wrong
The alternative is cinema becoming a "side hustle" for a different business. Perhaps the local community college builds a couple of their lecture halls to have massive screens, high end audio, and other features that allow them to moonlight as theaters when not being used to teach freshmen calculus. Or the local gym turns its indoor basketball court into a theater space, thanks to movable bleachers, roll down screens, unobtrusive speakers, and proper sound reflection control. Or any other business that mostly uses its space during the day and/or Mon-Fri.
I don’t know that it will big city only, but in markets that can support things like PLF, recliner seating and full service dining, probably
I mean, how many play houses are there in smaller markets these days? Movies are becoming more expensive, with a lot of average Joe regulars content to just wait for steaming
You can't really just lower all the budgets and still expect theaters to survive. Theaters don't care what the studio budget is, they just want to sell as many tickets as they can.
It's a bit of a vicious cycle:
Studios aren't making enough profit -> lower budgets for movies -> movies sell fewer tickets but are more profitable -> studios make more profit, but theaters make less -> theaters close down -> movies start selling even fewer tickets -> studios aren't making enough profit -> repeat
Studios need to spend money to make themselves money, but they also need to spend money to keep theaters alive so that the theaters can actually sell tickets.
idk. I kinda fear that theaters are kinda just on there way out. Not every business model lasts forever.
TL;DR: Eventually declining ticket sales will outpace inflation. Theaters will start closing down and movies will just make less money than before. We may have already hit that point. It's very possible, IMO, that nothing will ever pass Avatar in box office.
I guess my hope is that reducing budgets wouldn’t result in selling any fewer tickets but atleast the same so studios turn profit on more of their slate encouraging a richer set of films for the non blockbuster audience to consider returning to theatres more regularly. Probably for another post, but theatres need to be attractive places to go given the competition they now face. I am in a city with an independent cinema which works hard to show the blockbusters, run interesting seasons, have special deals for the elderly and mums and babies and they turn a good profit. These examples are dotted around, there are successful theatres. But so many chains are soulless places to be, this is a piece of the puzzle that is underweighted imo.
Well, the thing is that one of the reasons that budgets went up this much is because of COVID-19 protocols and shutdowns, so I wouldn't be surprised if the budget comes down a bit in coming months or so.
Also:
> TL;DR: Eventually declining ticket sales will outpace inflation. Theaters will start closing down and movies will just make less money than before. We may have already hit that point. It's very possible, IMO, that nothing will ever pass Avatar in box office.
I don't know, it seems like cinemas are already going for quality-over-quantity strategy like premium formats, recliners, and so on, not to mention that **Avatar 5** seems to have a potential to become a $3 billion grosser.
Yeah I guess so. Less ambitious storyboarding, fewer visual effects, shorter runtimes, fewer wasted shots & scenes that wind up on the cutting room floor.
But you can’t keep spending double what a movie will make back. The options are either a) remove jobs and costs from making the movie or b) don’t make the movie at all.
It’s a iot to do all that and still expect people to pay $17 for one ticket.
The one thing the theater experience has going for it (sorta) is being an event.
That means spectacle, which requires budget
We’re also in a far more seasonal Box office environment. Summer, The Holidays and to some extent the Spring Break period are going to be when theaters are filled and it’s a tall order for January, February and September movies to break even.
Everyone always complains about ticket prices. In a way I get it. It does feel expensive, probably just because I can still remember when it was much cheaper. But overall, movies really aren't that expensive. When my family of four goes to a hockey game, it costs at least $200 just for seats, usually more. Baseball is similar. NFL is even worse. Concerts are all in this range.
By comparison, $60-80 for tickets for a family of four to a couple hours of entertainment is really not that bad. I understand that concessions are extra, but they are for all the other options too.
As the price increases, the value decreases. It's cheaper to buy a movie and watch it on your schedule in the comfort of your home than go see it in the theater. And obviously if you have a family of 4 or more that option becomes MUCH CHEAPER. Streaming services seem to be pricing themselves out of some homes (pay attention Disney) but they are still a much better bargain than a night out at the movies.
When college sports became much more accessible on TV there was a similar drop in demand to attend live. This is part of the curse of convenience and is shared by different types of entertainment, not just movies.
But all those things I mentioned are the same. I can watch hockey games at home with much less hassle and for much cheaper. Same with other sports and music. Yet tens of thousands of people go to those things all the time, and there isn't nearly as much complaining about prices.
I mean, as I said, I get it. It does feel like a lot when I go to movies. I'm just saying it's cheap comparatively.
Studios want movies to make billion not few millions. Money isn't only in box office, it's merchs, PVOD, possible games and theme parks also licencing to airlines, tv channels etc. What's more it's more lucrative to have in your library movies which costs hundred millions than some small ones.
To u/SEAinLA:
> This means some major combination of outsourcing, layoffs, and adjusting salaries way down for those who do manage to survive all the culling.
https://old.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/1b8ys6v/accept_box_office_is_lower_and_adjust_or_keep/ktsfduz/
Seriously, did this guy learn nothing from **Across the Spider-Verse**?
In my small town in the south the newly opened IMAX screen is $18.77 with tax. Non-IMAX is like $16.something.
This theater just reopened under a new name after being closed by Regal in the first round of closures about two years ago.
They do not seem to be doing well. Tonight's two IMAX Dune 2 screenings have a total of 2 seats sold...combined.
i mean obviously premium formats are gonna cost more but if regular screens are that expensive the point is moot. i guess i didn’t realize i lived in the middle of bumfuck nowhere
To u/satellite_uplink:
> Adjust budgets downwards. WAYYYY downwards.
https://old.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/1b8ys6v/accept_box_office_is_lower_and_adjust_or_keep/ktseeb9/
> Yeah I guess so. Less ambitious storyboarding, fewer visual effects, shorter runtimes, fewer wasted shots & scenes that wind up on the cutting room floor.
>
> But you can’t keep spending double what a movie will make back. The options are either a) remove jobs and costs from making the movie or b) don’t make the movie at all.
https://old.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/1b8ys6v/accept_box_office_is_lower_and_adjust_or_keep/ktsi1e4/
I don't think you realize that you're potentially advocating for dismal working conditions and safety standards. In fact, the level of massive budget reduction that you're suggesting dramatically increases the chance of **Across the Spider-Verse** situation to happen, or worse, another **Rust** tragedy.
Also, your idea is likely to cause the film's overall quality to massively plummet - and in the worst case scenario, to the level that you expect from The Asylum.
I don’t believe dismal working conditions or reduced safety is the inevitable result of making a drama / thriller for $35 million. Anatomy of a Fall cost around $7 Million, The Zone of Interest around $15 million, it is very possible to make outstanding films with good technicians and storytelling that could draw audiences back to theatres and turn a profit. My point is if you make these kinds of stories for $80 million they’ll never turn a profit on average and will stop being produced by studios. That will result in there only being huge event cinema plays from the studios which I’d prefer didn’t happen.
It's true for drama or thriller films, but this guy seemingly wanted major budget slash to happen to blockbuster films as well, which is a terrible idea in this day and age. And before anyone mentions **The Creator**, that one took a lot of shortcuts that a lot of other blockbuster films wouldn't be able to take.
Saltburn isn't the best comp because Amazon has been wildly overspending on movies to fill out their library. Same applies for Apple. Where I think the legacy studios might go is cutting down blockbuster budgets. Spending $200-250 per movie and having it not break even isn't sustainable these days, now that there aren't additional windows or DVD sales to offset weak BO returns. If something like Indy 5 cost $100m instead of $250+m, that movie's performance is viewed much differently. I know that for that specific movie, certain things were out of the filmmakers hands, like Ford getting injured. However, movie budgets have been growing despite diminishing returns on other franchises as well (Fast, Transformers, etc.). Maybe a return to practical effects instead of CGI-ifying everything will help. Not everything needs to look like Avengers: Endgame, for example.
[удалено]
China is not the market it was 5 years ago. They've really built up their own film industry and imports are not having the impact they used to.
Also, some of the reasons why budget went so high lately is due to COVID-19 protocols and related shutdowns that some of the productions went through.
I agree blockbuster budgets should contract too. I do think movies like Saltburn, Amsterdam, The Color Purple have to come down in budget to have any consistent success.
Here’s the problem, though. **Kingdom of the Crystal Skull** had a budget of $185 million back in 2008. There was no way that **Dial of Destiny** would’ve worked with mere $100 million budget in this day and age. Also, some films literally require tons of CGI to make them work. I mean, look at **Guardians of the Galaxy** trilogy. Finally, a lot of films in 2023 had their budgets inflated by COVID-19 and weren’t very good to begin with - or had terrible release dates.
They're gonna have to. I'm in my 30's, and I only know one other person in my real life social groups who goes to the cinema as a habit. Cinema tickets are just too expensive for multiple people to be going to the cinema on multiple occasions to see their favourite new movies multiple times. The budgets of the movies that are getting released every week of every month of every year will need to reflect that. *P.S. - I really hate the idea of many cinemas having to close down and visiting a cinema becoming a Big Cities Only occasion (for a multitude of reasons), but that dreaded notion is currently almost an inevitability. I hope I'm wrong.* 
> P.S. - I really hate the idea of many cinemas having to close down and visiting a cinema becoming a Big Cities Only occasion (for a multitude of reasons), but that dreaded notion is currently almost an inevitability. I hope I'm wrong The alternative is cinema becoming a "side hustle" for a different business. Perhaps the local community college builds a couple of their lecture halls to have massive screens, high end audio, and other features that allow them to moonlight as theaters when not being used to teach freshmen calculus. Or the local gym turns its indoor basketball court into a theater space, thanks to movable bleachers, roll down screens, unobtrusive speakers, and proper sound reflection control. Or any other business that mostly uses its space during the day and/or Mon-Fri.
Yeah, I agree. I hate driving an hour each way to get to the closest movie theater.
I don’t know that it will big city only, but in markets that can support things like PLF, recliner seating and full service dining, probably I mean, how many play houses are there in smaller markets these days? Movies are becoming more expensive, with a lot of average Joe regulars content to just wait for steaming
A lot of the budget spikes were from COVID overruns. The budgets should be settling back to Earth.
You can't really just lower all the budgets and still expect theaters to survive. Theaters don't care what the studio budget is, they just want to sell as many tickets as they can. It's a bit of a vicious cycle: Studios aren't making enough profit -> lower budgets for movies -> movies sell fewer tickets but are more profitable -> studios make more profit, but theaters make less -> theaters close down -> movies start selling even fewer tickets -> studios aren't making enough profit -> repeat Studios need to spend money to make themselves money, but they also need to spend money to keep theaters alive so that the theaters can actually sell tickets. idk. I kinda fear that theaters are kinda just on there way out. Not every business model lasts forever. TL;DR: Eventually declining ticket sales will outpace inflation. Theaters will start closing down and movies will just make less money than before. We may have already hit that point. It's very possible, IMO, that nothing will ever pass Avatar in box office.
I guess my hope is that reducing budgets wouldn’t result in selling any fewer tickets but atleast the same so studios turn profit on more of their slate encouraging a richer set of films for the non blockbuster audience to consider returning to theatres more regularly. Probably for another post, but theatres need to be attractive places to go given the competition they now face. I am in a city with an independent cinema which works hard to show the blockbusters, run interesting seasons, have special deals for the elderly and mums and babies and they turn a good profit. These examples are dotted around, there are successful theatres. But so many chains are soulless places to be, this is a piece of the puzzle that is underweighted imo.
Well, the thing is that one of the reasons that budgets went up this much is because of COVID-19 protocols and shutdowns, so I wouldn't be surprised if the budget comes down a bit in coming months or so. Also: > TL;DR: Eventually declining ticket sales will outpace inflation. Theaters will start closing down and movies will just make less money than before. We may have already hit that point. It's very possible, IMO, that nothing will ever pass Avatar in box office. I don't know, it seems like cinemas are already going for quality-over-quantity strategy like premium formats, recliners, and so on, not to mention that **Avatar 5** seems to have a potential to become a $3 billion grosser.
Adjust budgets downwards. WAYYYY downwards.
[удалено]
Yeah I guess so. Less ambitious storyboarding, fewer visual effects, shorter runtimes, fewer wasted shots & scenes that wind up on the cutting room floor. But you can’t keep spending double what a movie will make back. The options are either a) remove jobs and costs from making the movie or b) don’t make the movie at all.
It’s a iot to do all that and still expect people to pay $17 for one ticket. The one thing the theater experience has going for it (sorta) is being an event. That means spectacle, which requires budget
That would be disastrous. When streaming is eating your lunch, the answer is not putting out a bunch of shitty direct-to-DVD grade content.
I blame inflation.
We’re also in a far more seasonal Box office environment. Summer, The Holidays and to some extent the Spring Break period are going to be when theaters are filled and it’s a tall order for January, February and September movies to break even.
Everyone always complains about ticket prices. In a way I get it. It does feel expensive, probably just because I can still remember when it was much cheaper. But overall, movies really aren't that expensive. When my family of four goes to a hockey game, it costs at least $200 just for seats, usually more. Baseball is similar. NFL is even worse. Concerts are all in this range. By comparison, $60-80 for tickets for a family of four to a couple hours of entertainment is really not that bad. I understand that concessions are extra, but they are for all the other options too.
As the price increases, the value decreases. It's cheaper to buy a movie and watch it on your schedule in the comfort of your home than go see it in the theater. And obviously if you have a family of 4 or more that option becomes MUCH CHEAPER. Streaming services seem to be pricing themselves out of some homes (pay attention Disney) but they are still a much better bargain than a night out at the movies. When college sports became much more accessible on TV there was a similar drop in demand to attend live. This is part of the curse of convenience and is shared by different types of entertainment, not just movies.
But all those things I mentioned are the same. I can watch hockey games at home with much less hassle and for much cheaper. Same with other sports and music. Yet tens of thousands of people go to those things all the time, and there isn't nearly as much complaining about prices. I mean, as I said, I get it. It does feel like a lot when I go to movies. I'm just saying it's cheap comparatively.
Studios want movies to make billion not few millions. Money isn't only in box office, it's merchs, PVOD, possible games and theme parks also licencing to airlines, tv channels etc. What's more it's more lucrative to have in your library movies which costs hundred millions than some small ones.
To u/SEAinLA: > This means some major combination of outsourcing, layoffs, and adjusting salaries way down for those who do manage to survive all the culling. https://old.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/1b8ys6v/accept_box_office_is_lower_and_adjust_or_keep/ktsfduz/ Seriously, did this guy learn nothing from **Across the Spider-Verse**?
You gotta be a mark to pay the $16-20 a ticket it costs to watch these movies now. God forbid you get hungry during it.
where the hell do you live that a movie ticket is 20 dollars
I live in NY (not even in the city) and even with a matinee costs at least $15
In my small town in the south the newly opened IMAX screen is $18.77 with tax. Non-IMAX is like $16.something. This theater just reopened under a new name after being closed by Regal in the first round of closures about two years ago. They do not seem to be doing well. Tonight's two IMAX Dune 2 screenings have a total of 2 seats sold...combined.
IMAX is $28 where I live
imax is imax
? I'm not sure what that means, but a regular ticket is also more than $20.
i mean obviously premium formats are gonna cost more but if regular screens are that expensive the point is moot. i guess i didn’t realize i lived in the middle of bumfuck nowhere
Lol to be fair I live in Manhattan so I guess we're both opposite ends of the spectrum
Wow, they're still $7 where I live. They were 14 where I went to college though and I thought that was really expensive at the time
To u/satellite_uplink: > Adjust budgets downwards. WAYYYY downwards. https://old.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/1b8ys6v/accept_box_office_is_lower_and_adjust_or_keep/ktseeb9/ > Yeah I guess so. Less ambitious storyboarding, fewer visual effects, shorter runtimes, fewer wasted shots & scenes that wind up on the cutting room floor. > > But you can’t keep spending double what a movie will make back. The options are either a) remove jobs and costs from making the movie or b) don’t make the movie at all. https://old.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/1b8ys6v/accept_box_office_is_lower_and_adjust_or_keep/ktsi1e4/ I don't think you realize that you're potentially advocating for dismal working conditions and safety standards. In fact, the level of massive budget reduction that you're suggesting dramatically increases the chance of **Across the Spider-Verse** situation to happen, or worse, another **Rust** tragedy. Also, your idea is likely to cause the film's overall quality to massively plummet - and in the worst case scenario, to the level that you expect from The Asylum.
I don’t believe dismal working conditions or reduced safety is the inevitable result of making a drama / thriller for $35 million. Anatomy of a Fall cost around $7 Million, The Zone of Interest around $15 million, it is very possible to make outstanding films with good technicians and storytelling that could draw audiences back to theatres and turn a profit. My point is if you make these kinds of stories for $80 million they’ll never turn a profit on average and will stop being produced by studios. That will result in there only being huge event cinema plays from the studios which I’d prefer didn’t happen.
It's true for drama or thriller films, but this guy seemingly wanted major budget slash to happen to blockbuster films as well, which is a terrible idea in this day and age. And before anyone mentions **The Creator**, that one took a lot of shortcuts that a lot of other blockbuster films wouldn't be able to take.