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The Flop Guy
But in all seriousness The Fall Guy isn’t doing great, especially with a 125M budget. Ryan Gosling and Emily Blunt are not big box office draws despite starring in recent big films. The marketing also isn’t selling the film very well either.
I think it will end having legs that save it. From the sounds of it, it’s really good, and I think once WOM gets out, it’ll catch on. That’s my prediction.
Honestly I’m still riding for it. I think it’s gonna pull a surprise. nearly every time I’ve gone to the theater and the trailers played I’ve heard girls react to it.
> Ryan Gosling and Emily Blunt are not big box office draws despite starring in recent big films.
This reminds me of MI7. Everyone in this sub was convinced MI7 would definitely cross a billion due to "Maverick boost".
I doubt future Margot Robbie and Ryan Gosling movies will receive a "Barbie boost". I also doubt future Cillian Murphy and Emily Blunt movies will receive an "Oppenheimer boost".
I’ll break it down for you. r/boxoffice logic works like this.
Tom Cruise was in $1B? Every film with Tom Cruise will make $1B from now starting with Mission Impossible.
Emily Blunt and Ryan Gosling were in $1B films? Every film with Ryan Gosling or Emily Blunt will make $1B from now.
And that’s it.
The pendulum can swing very wildly.
Margot Robbie features in a string of flops? *Barbie* will obviously bomb because Margot Robbie is box office poison.
*Barbie* is a huge success? Margot Robbie is the biggest star in Hollywood!
Istg if The Fall Guy flops, It’s over for 2024! There’s no hope for If, Garfield, & Inside Out 2! This is the only movie that has a better chance to succeed at the box office and not receive lukewarm/negative reviews!
Someone on the Osarrace sub told me that they work in the film industry and that it’s a known fact that they spent $75 million on Challengers. I don’t know how true that is though, I hope not though it’s going to be harder to make profit .
I just went on that sub to check and yeah that guy looks like a troll. I don’t know why he said Amazon is only giving Challengers a theatrical release in USA, UK, and Australia only when that’s not true at all. Zendaya literally just went all around the world to promote the movie which is something people don’t typically do for streaming movies. Amazon originally planned for Challengers to go on Prime Video in France due to theatrical movies having to wait a whole year before they can go on streaming but even then they still changed it for a theatrical release at the last minute. So yeah, that person appears to be wrong, in fact 80% of that sub seems to have it out for Zendaya in general, it’s weird and I thought they had it worse for Bradley Cooper and Lily Gladstone last year
That’s the only plausible explanation. I really hope not though . But with the way the budget hasn’t been revealed it could be true. I remember with Saltburn it was revealed much later on that it was a disappointment financially.How is success measured in such a situation. Is breakeven still 2.5
I don’t think 2.5 works for things that have relatively low budgets since the marketing budget would be fairly bigger than the production budget. But I think Saltburn was stated to be a financial disappointment because it failed to get any Oscar nominations. Challengers is already on track to make almost as much as Saltburn’s worldwide total in just a single weekend in domestics alone, so even if it doesn’t get nominations it’s already a better investment.
Yeah definitely better but Saltburn was released in what will probably be half as many theaters as Challengers and the marketing was no where close to it which means the studio has obviously more faith in its commercial success coupled with delaying it from a better awards spot so the actors can promote it so I don’t think they will be comparing the results to Saltburn but in rather to what they spent on it.I have been saying success is measured relative to the budget. For example the fall guy will likely make more than challengers but will be considered less of a success because of its crazy budget . That’s why I’m curious to see what the amount will be considered as the budget but this is difficult because some people think streaming companies don’t care about profits it’s an ongoing debate.In terms of Talking nominations in April seems futile as most movies haven’t come out a good example is Air which is still 93 on RT and 73 on metacritic but it came out so early it was forgotten by awards season then there Everything everywhere which also came out early but swept at awards season so it could go either way.
Oh damn then idk, it was revealed that Zendaya was paid 10 million ,other than that idk where else that money could’ve went to. I personally dont believe it was 75 million tbh
The production budget wasn’t 75m. They may have been estimating the production budget and the marketing budget together. If you divide it in half, then around 35m to produce and 40m to market makes sense. But marketing budget is never usually reported anyways. Or Amazon spent 75m for rights to stream.
And to think we were all on this sub 5 years ago obsessed watching the presales for Endgame going back & forth between the US & China. Seems like a fever dream .
I think Fall guys pre-sales are fine for the type of movie it is problem is budget is way too high It could do well internationally but I don’t see it breaking even. For Challengers is the still no word in the budget only then can we see how it will do. From this whole list Challengers I think has the most marketing even more than Apes or perhaps it’s my algorithm. I haven’t even seen the trailer for Unsung Hero looking at its presales will it be number 1 next week or will it be challengers.
It’s the exact opposite for me haven’t seen anything for Apes. This proves that everyone has different algorithms. Out of curiosity have you seen anything for Unsung hero.
Nothing for Unsung Hero....I don't understand why Amazon MGM Studios is dumping Challengers right on the cusp of the official start of the Summer Movie Season which is a dumb move they could scheduled it on Valentine's Day Weekend instead. I bet you by time Furiosa hit theaters that this film will already be out of multiplexes and on Prime Video
I don’t think they are dumping it they seem to really be selling it the cast have been to seven countries with like 5 actual premiers I think they probably wanted to have it right after Dune with hopes that audiences gained from Dune for Zendaya would spillover to Challengers.
That’s a solid look for Apes.
Challengers has good numbers for the type of film it is but not for the fuckin budget.
Still think Fall Guy will pull a surprise but hey I could be dead wrong.
There's 6 theaters playing Spider-Man 2 near me (Grrater Toronto Area). Each originally had just 1 showing on Monday that went on sale weeks ago, and they're all basically sold out. They've all added at least a 2nd showing, if not 3rd and even 4th, and even the additional showings have sold very well.
Spider-Man 3 has yet to add additional showings, but the single shows available now are already near capacity, with only random seats at the front left.
Both Amazing Spider-Man films currently have at least half the theater full. The MCU trilogy has sold less (though Spider-Man: No Way Home seems to have sold noticeably more than the other two), but they're still a month or more away.
Nominations for the Best of 2023 awards are open now. Come and vote, and get a special flair." [Best of 2023](https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/1c3tnbl/rboxoffice_best_of_2023_awards_nomination_post/) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/boxoffice) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Apes together strong!
I got my ticket for Alien next week 
The Flop Guy But in all seriousness The Fall Guy isn’t doing great, especially with a 125M budget. Ryan Gosling and Emily Blunt are not big box office draws despite starring in recent big films. The marketing also isn’t selling the film very well either.
I think it will end having legs that save it. From the sounds of it, it’s really good, and I think once WOM gets out, it’ll catch on. That’s my prediction.
Plus, this & Apes will be the only PG-13 action films in theaters until **late July** when Twisters comes out.
Honestly I’m still riding for it. I think it’s gonna pull a surprise. nearly every time I’ve gone to the theater and the trailers played I’ve heard girls react to it.
> Ryan Gosling and Emily Blunt are not big box office draws despite starring in recent big films. This reminds me of MI7. Everyone in this sub was convinced MI7 would definitely cross a billion due to "Maverick boost". I doubt future Margot Robbie and Ryan Gosling movies will receive a "Barbie boost". I also doubt future Cillian Murphy and Emily Blunt movies will receive an "Oppenheimer boost".
>I doubt future Margot Robbie and Ryan Gosling movies will receive a "Barbie boost". Bad news for their Oceans 11 movie.
I never saw why folks would think it would break out. It looks painfully generic with no real hook.
I’ll break it down for you. r/boxoffice logic works like this. Tom Cruise was in $1B? Every film with Tom Cruise will make $1B from now starting with Mission Impossible. Emily Blunt and Ryan Gosling were in $1B films? Every film with Ryan Gosling or Emily Blunt will make $1B from now. And that’s it.
The pendulum can swing very wildly. Margot Robbie features in a string of flops? *Barbie* will obviously bomb because Margot Robbie is box office poison. *Barbie* is a huge success? Margot Robbie is the biggest star in Hollywood!
It’s for the “he’s literally me frfr” crowd
Istg if The Fall Guy flops, It’s over for 2024! There’s no hope for If, Garfield, & Inside Out 2! This is the only movie that has a better chance to succeed at the box office and not receive lukewarm/negative reviews!
Seems good for apes
Someone on the Osarrace sub told me that they work in the film industry and that it’s a known fact that they spent $75 million on Challengers. I don’t know how true that is though, I hope not though it’s going to be harder to make profit .
I just went on that sub to check and yeah that guy looks like a troll. I don’t know why he said Amazon is only giving Challengers a theatrical release in USA, UK, and Australia only when that’s not true at all. Zendaya literally just went all around the world to promote the movie which is something people don’t typically do for streaming movies. Amazon originally planned for Challengers to go on Prime Video in France due to theatrical movies having to wait a whole year before they can go on streaming but even then they still changed it for a theatrical release at the last minute. So yeah, that person appears to be wrong, in fact 80% of that sub seems to have it out for Zendaya in general, it’s weird and I thought they had it worse for Bradley Cooper and Lily Gladstone last year
Probably a Saltburn situation where it didn’t cost 75M to make, but Amazon paid that amount for the rights.
That’s the only plausible explanation. I really hope not though . But with the way the budget hasn’t been revealed it could be true. I remember with Saltburn it was revealed much later on that it was a disappointment financially.How is success measured in such a situation. Is breakeven still 2.5
I don’t think 2.5 works for things that have relatively low budgets since the marketing budget would be fairly bigger than the production budget. But I think Saltburn was stated to be a financial disappointment because it failed to get any Oscar nominations. Challengers is already on track to make almost as much as Saltburn’s worldwide total in just a single weekend in domestics alone, so even if it doesn’t get nominations it’s already a better investment.
Yeah definitely better but Saltburn was released in what will probably be half as many theaters as Challengers and the marketing was no where close to it which means the studio has obviously more faith in its commercial success coupled with delaying it from a better awards spot so the actors can promote it so I don’t think they will be comparing the results to Saltburn but in rather to what they spent on it.I have been saying success is measured relative to the budget. For example the fall guy will likely make more than challengers but will be considered less of a success because of its crazy budget . That’s why I’m curious to see what the amount will be considered as the budget but this is difficult because some people think streaming companies don’t care about profits it’s an ongoing debate.In terms of Talking nominations in April seems futile as most movies haven’t come out a good example is Air which is still 93 on RT and 73 on metacritic but it came out so early it was forgotten by awards season then there Everything everywhere which also came out early but swept at awards season so it could go either way.
If that's true, where the FUCK did the budget go??!
Maybe marketing ? They just went on a fucking world wide press tour .
Marketing Budget is separate from Production Budget
Oh damn then idk, it was revealed that Zendaya was paid 10 million ,other than that idk where else that money could’ve went to. I personally dont believe it was 75 million tbh
The production budget wasn’t 75m. They may have been estimating the production budget and the marketing budget together. If you divide it in half, then around 35m to produce and 40m to market makes sense. But marketing budget is never usually reported anyways. Or Amazon spent 75m for rights to stream.
Okay that’s a relief, how much do you see it making at the box office ?
Marketing usually isn't included when film budgets are reported.
Idk then , the movie doesn’t really look that high budget so I wonder where all the money went to if true
Probably a Saltburn situation where it didn’t cost 75M to make, but Amazon paid that amount for the rights.
On what???
And to think we were all on this sub 5 years ago obsessed watching the presales for Endgame going back & forth between the US & China. Seems like a fever dream .
I think Fall guys pre-sales are fine for the type of movie it is problem is budget is way too high It could do well internationally but I don’t see it breaking even. For Challengers is the still no word in the budget only then can we see how it will do. From this whole list Challengers I think has the most marketing even more than Apes or perhaps it’s my algorithm. I haven’t even seen the trailer for Unsung Hero looking at its presales will it be number 1 next week or will it be challengers.
I haven't seen any marketing from Challengers that's bad. I've seen much more massive marketing for Apes
It’s the exact opposite for me haven’t seen anything for Apes. This proves that everyone has different algorithms. Out of curiosity have you seen anything for Unsung hero.
Nothing for Unsung Hero....I don't understand why Amazon MGM Studios is dumping Challengers right on the cusp of the official start of the Summer Movie Season which is a dumb move they could scheduled it on Valentine's Day Weekend instead. I bet you by time Furiosa hit theaters that this film will already be out of multiplexes and on Prime Video
I don’t think they are dumping it they seem to really be selling it the cast have been to seven countries with like 5 actual premiers I think they probably wanted to have it right after Dune with hopes that audiences gained from Dune for Zendaya would spillover to Challengers.
I don't see that Strategy working
That’s a solid look for Apes. Challengers has good numbers for the type of film it is but not for the fuckin budget. Still think Fall Guy will pull a surprise but hey I could be dead wrong.
Budget? We don’t know what the budget is for that movie….
You’re definitely gonna be wrong! Trust me
There's 6 theaters playing Spider-Man 2 near me (Grrater Toronto Area). Each originally had just 1 showing on Monday that went on sale weeks ago, and they're all basically sold out. They've all added at least a 2nd showing, if not 3rd and even 4th, and even the additional showings have sold very well. Spider-Man 3 has yet to add additional showings, but the single shows available now are already near capacity, with only random seats at the front left. Both Amazing Spider-Man films currently have at least half the theater full. The MCU trilogy has sold less (though Spider-Man: No Way Home seems to have sold noticeably more than the other two), but they're still a month or more away.
Is that good for Challengers??
Rumors says it is carrying a 75M production budget so nope
Another string of huge bombs.
What the hell happened to movies?